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2022 Michigan gubernatorial election

From Wikipedia - Reading time: 32 min

See also: 2022 United States gubernatorial elections

2022 Michigan gubernatorial election
← 2018 November 8, 2022 2026 →
Turnout55.19% Decrease[1]
 
Nominee Gretchen Whitmer Tudor Dixon
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Garlin Gilchrist Shane Hernandez
Popular vote 2,430,505 1,960,635
Percentage 54.47% 43.94%
Whitmer:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Dixon:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Governor before election

Gretchen Whitmer
Democratic

Elected Governor

Gretchen Whitmer
Democratic

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The 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Michigan. Incumbent Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer ran for re-election to a second term and faced former political commentator Tudor Dixon in the general election.[2] Whitmer defeated Dixon by a margin of roughly 10.5 percentage points, a wider margin than polls indicated as well as a wider margin than Whitmer's first victory four years prior. Whitmer won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Dixon's defeat.[3]

This was the first gubernatorial election in Michigan history in which both major party candidates for governor were women,[4] and the first since 1990 in which the winner was from the same party as the incumbent president.[5]

Process for ballot appearance and fraud allegations

[edit]

In order to appear on a primary ballot for the August 2 Democratic and Republican primaries, candidates must submit between 15,000 and 30,000 signatures in addition to their filing paperwork.[6] These signatures are submitted to the Board of State Canvassers, a bipartisan and independent board that verifies petition signatures. Within seven days of the filing deadline, citizens and organizations can challenge nomination signatures submitted by candidates.[6] Voters are only allowed to sign one nomination petition.[6]

After the filing deadline, the Board of State Canvassers received nearly 30 challenges to nomination petitions. Among them, the Michigan Democratic Party alleged that several Republican candidates engaged in signature fraud with their petitions. This was followed by a report by the Michigan Bureau of Elections which alleged that 36 paid signature circulators faked signatures and engaged in practices that added fraudulent signatures to other candidates petitions.[6]

An eight-hour meeting of the Board of State Canvassers reached a deadlock on whether to allow the candidates in question to stay on the ballot.[6] Due to the deadlock, the candidates in question were not allowed to appear on the primary ballot. The rushed pace of the proceedings and the decision were criticized by Common Cause of Michigan, whose policy director suggested that the candidates in question had to plead their cases to the Board of Canvassers days after finding out about the alleged fraud themselves.[6][7]

Several candidates filed lawsuits appealing the decision. These suits were rejected in the Michigan Court of Appeals.[8] Three candidates appealed to the Michigan Supreme Court, but these appeals were denied.[6]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Gretchen Whitmer

Organizations

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Gretchen Whitmer (incumbent) 938,382 100.0%
Total votes 938,382 100.0%

Republican primary

[edit]

Fourteen people declared their candidacy for the Republican gubernatorial nomination.[17] At the filing deadline, 10 candidates submitted enough signatures to appear on the ballot, a state record.[17] However, following challenges by the state Democratic party and other organizations, five candidates were deemed ineligible to appear on the ballot due to alleged fraudulent signatures.[18] Several of these candidates, including former Detroit police chief James Craig and Michael Markey, pledged to appeal the decision to the State Supreme Court.[6] Craig also mentioned that, should the appeal fail, he would still plan to run as a write-in candidate for both the primary and the general election.[6] On June 15, 2022, Craig announced he was launching a write-in campaign for the nomination.[19]

On June 9, 2022, candidate Ryan Kelley was arrested by the FBI following numerous tips that he had participated in the January 6 United States Capitol attack.[20] The criminal complaint alleges that Kelley engaged in disorderly conduct on restricted grounds and engaged in acts of violence against a person or property.[20] He agreed in June 2023 to plead guilty on a lesser charge in relation to his participation in the insurrection.[21][22]

On August 19, 2022, Dixon announced former state representative Shane Hernandez as her running mate. However, shortly after, former gubernatorial candidates Ralph Rebandt and Garrett Soldano both announced that they were exploring the possibility of launching their own campaigns for lieutenant governor to contest Hernandez at the August 27 state GOP convention for not being conservative enough.[23] On August 22, 2022, Soldano announced that he would not seek the position of lieutenant governor at the convention.[24] Later that same day, Rebandt announced that he would seek the nomination at the convention.[25] Hernandez secured his party's nomination at the convention, despite heated opposition from supporters of Rebandt.[26]

On June 22, 2023, charges were filed against three individuals regarding the fraudulent signatures that disqualified five of the candidates in the Republican primary.[27][28][29]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Disqualified, write-in campaign

[edit]

Failed to qualify

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Mike Brown (disqualified)

State representatives

Local officials

Individuals

  • Ted Nugent, singer-songwriter and conservative political activist (switched endorsement to Rinke)[78]
James Craig (disqualified/write-in)

U.S. representatives

State officials

Mayors

Tudor Dixon

U.S. Executive Branch officials

State officials

U.S. representatives

State senators

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Perry Johnson (disqualified)

U.S. representatives

Michael Jay Markey Jr. (disqualified)
State Senators
Kevin Rinke

Individuals

  • Ted Nugent, singer-songwriter and conservative political activist (previously endorsed Brown)[93]

Newspapers

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Tudor
Dixon 		Ryan
Kelley 		Kevin
Rinke 		Garrett
Soldano 		Other
[a] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics[95] July 28 – August 1, 2022 August 1, 2022 40.7% 11.7% 20.3% 14.7% 12.6% Dixon +20.4
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Brown 		James
Craig 		Tudor
Dixon 		Perry
Johnson 		Ryan
Kelley 		Kevin
Rinke 		Garrett
Soldano 		Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[96] July 31 – August 1, 2022 1,074 (LV) ± 2.9% – – 41% – 10% 19% 18% 2%[c] 11%
Mitchell Research (R)[97] July 31, 2022 443 (LV) ± 4.7% – – 37% – 12% 23% 12% 2%[c] 15%
Emerson College[98] July 28–30, 2022 869 (LV) ± 3.3% – – 41% – 12% 17% 12% 9%[d] 9%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[99] July 26–28, 2022 1,098 (LV) ± 2.9% – – 28% – 14% 17% 19% 3%[e] 19%
co/efficient (R)[100][A] July 24–26, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% – – 21% – – 22% – – –
Mitchell Research (R)[101] July 24–25, 2022 436 (LV) ± 5.0% – – 28% – 14% 22% 11% 1%[f] 25%
Mitchell Research (R)[102] July 17–18, 2022 501 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 28% – 15% 20% 10% 1%[f] 26%
The Glengariff Group, Inc.[103] July 13–15, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 19% – 13% 15% 12% 2%[c] 38%
Mitchell Research (R)[104] July 7–8, 2022 683 (LV) ± 3.8% – – 26% – 15% 13% 13% 1%[f] 33%
Mitchell Research (R)[105] June 21–22, 2022 588 (LV) ± 4.0% – – 15% – 13% 15% 8% 3%[e] 46%
EPIC-MRA[106] June 10–13, 2022 398 (LV) ± 4.9% – – 5% – 17% 12% 13% 8%[g] 45%
Target Insyght[107] May 26–27, 2022 400 (LV) ± 5.0% – – 9% – 19% 15% 6% 1%[f] 49%
May 23, 2022 Board of Elections announces Brandenburg, Brown, Craig, Johnson, and Markey did not file enough valid signatures to appear on the ballot
The Glengariff Group, Inc.[108] April 29 – May 1, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 2% 23% 2% 5% 5% 6% 8% 3%[h] 44%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[109] March 29–31, 2022 1,072 (LV) ± 3.0% 2% 34% 3% 16% 7% 2% 15% 8% 12%
March 3, 2022 Chenge withdraws from the race
Mitchell Research (R)[110] February 17–19, 2022 539 (LV) ± 4.2% 3% 32% 4% 3% 4% 5% 10% 3% 37%
Strategic National (R)[111][B] September 18–19, 2021 400 (LV) ± 4.9% – 38% 1% – 1% 0% 8% 2%[i] 50%
– 40% 1% – – 0% 10% – 49%
Hypothetical polling

John James vs. James Craig

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		John
James 		James
Craig 		Undecided
Target Insyght[112] May 9–11, 2021 304 (RV) ± 3.5% 36% 21% 42%

Results

[edit]
Results by county
  Dixon
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Rinke
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Tudor Dixon 436,350 39.69%
Republican Kevin Rinke 236,306 21.50%
Republican Garrett Soldano 192,442 17.51%
Republican Ryan Kelley 165,587 15.06%
Republican Ralph Rebandt 45,046 4.10%
Write-in 23,542 2.14%
Total votes 1,099,273 100.0%

Libertarian convention

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]

Constitution convention

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]
  • Donna Brandenburg, businesswoman (Nominated following disqualification from GOP ballot)[114]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[115] Lean D October 28, 2022
Inside Elections[116] Tilt D March 4, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[117] Lean D November 7, 2022
Politico[118] Lean D May 23, 2022
RCP[119] Tossup October 21, 2022
Fox News[120] Lean D August 22, 2022
538[121] Likely D November 8, 2022
Elections Daily[122] Lean D November 7, 2022

Endorsements

[edit]
Gretchen Whitmer (D)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State officials

State senators

State representatives

  • Kyra Harris Bolden, state representative from Michigan's 35th district[128]
  • Doug Hart, former state representative from Michigan's 73rd district (Republican)[133]
  • Mike Pumford, former state representative from Michigan's 100th district (Republican)[133]

Local officials

Individuals

Newspapers

Organizations

Tudor Dixon (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

State officials

U.S. representatives

State senators

Individuals

Newspapers

Organizations

Declined to endorse

State officials

Local officials

Organizations

  • Michigan Chamber of Commerce (withdrew endorsement of Dixon from the primary)[162]
  • Small Business Association of Michigan[162]

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Gretchen
Whitmer (D) 		Tudor
Dixon (R) 		Other
[j] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics[164] October 30 – November 7, 2022 November 8, 2022 48.3% 47.3% 4.4% Whitmer +1.0
FiveThirtyEight[165] January 3 – November 8, 2022 November 8, 2022 49.9% 45.1% 5.0% Whitmer +4.8
270toWin[166] November 3–7, 2022 November 8, 2022 50.4% 46.4% 3.2% Whitmer +4.0
Average 49.5% 46.3% 4.2% Whitmer +3.2

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Gretchen
Whitmer (D) 		Tudor
Dixon (R) 		Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[167] November 5–7, 2022 1,097 (LV) ± 2.9% 48% 49% 1%[k] 2%
Cygnal (R)[168] November 1–4, 2022 1,603 (LV) ± 2.5% 50% 47% 2%[l] 1%
Mitchell Research[169] November 3, 2022 658 (LV) ± 3.8% 50% 48% 1%[m] 2%
Cygnal (R)[170] October 31 – November 2, 2022 1,754 (LV) ± 2.3% 51% 46% 2%[n] 2%
EPIC-MRA[171] October 28 – November 1, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 54% 43% 1%[o] 2%
Emerson College[172] October 27–31, 2022 1,584 (LV) ± 2.5% 50% 45% 3%[p] 3%
51% 46% 3%[q] –
Cygnal (R)[173] October 27–31, 2022 1,584 (LV) ± 2.5% 51% 45% 2%[r] 3%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[174][C] October 30, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 45% 45% 5%[s] 5%
Wick Insights[175] October 26–30, 2022 1,137 (LV) ± 3.2% 49% 47% 2%[t] 2%
KAConsulting (R)[176][D] October 27–29, 2022 501 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 41% 5%[u] 7%
Cygnal (R)[177] October 25–29, 2022 1,543 (LV) ± 2.5% 51% 44% 2%[v] 3%
The Glengariff Group, Inc.[178] October 26–28, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 43% 3% 2%
Cygnal (R)[179] October 23–27, 2022 1,822 (LV) ± 2.3% 51% 44% 3%[w] 2%
Cygnal (R)[180] October 21–25, 2022 1,378 (LV) ± 2.6% 51% 45% 3%[x] 2%
Cygnal (R)[181] October 19–23, 2022 1,459 (LV) ± 2.6% 50% 44% 3%[y] 3%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[182] October 18–21, 2022 1,022 (LV) ± 2.9% 48% 48% 2%[z] 2%
Cygnal (R)[183] October 17–21, 2022 1,904 (LV) ± 2.3% 50% 44% 3%[aa] 4%
Mitchell Research[184] October 19, 2022 541 (LV) ± 4.2% 49% 47% 1%[ab] 3%
Cygnal (R)[185] October 15–19, 2022 1,793 (LV) ± 2.3% 49% 44% 3%[ac] 4%
CNN/SSRS[186] October 13–18, 2022 901 (RV) ± 4.2% 55% 41% 4%[ad] 1%
651 (LV) ± 4.9% 52% 46% 2%[ae] –
Emerson College[187] October 12–14, 2022 580 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 44% 3%[af] 4%
Cygnal (R)[188][E] October 12–14, 2022 640 (LV) ± 3.9% 49% 44% 4%[ag] 4%
Wick Insights (R)[189] October 8–14, 2022 1,136 (LV) ± 3.1% 47% 48% 2%[ah] 3%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[190][C] October 12, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% 44% 6%[ai] 7%
EPIC-MRA[191] October 6–12, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 38% 4%[aj] 9%
YouGov/CBS News[192] October 3–6, 2022 1,285 (RV) ± 3.6% 53% 47% – –
The Glengariff Group, Inc.[193] September 26–29, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 32% 9%[ak] 9%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[194] September 24–28, 2022 1,075 (LV) ± 2.9% 51% 45% 4%[al] 1%
EPIC-MRA[195][F] September 15–19, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 55% 39% – 6%
EPIC-MRA[196][G] September 7–13, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 51% 40% 7%[am] 2%
The Glengariff Group, Inc.[197] August 29 – September 1, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 35% 4% 13%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[198] August 22–25, 2022 1,080 (LV) ± 2.9% 49% 45% 3%[an] 2%
EPIC-MRA[199] August 18–23, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 39% – 11%
Blueprint Polling (D)[200] August 15–16, 2022 611 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 39% 3% 8%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[201] August 8–14, 2022 1,365 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 46% – 3%
The Glengariff Group, Inc.[202] July 5–8, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 40% – 9%
Target Insyght[203] May 26–27, 2022 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 58% 21% – 21%
The Glengariff Group, Inc.[204] January 3–7, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 31% – 19%
Strategic National (R)[205][B] September 18–19, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 41% – 13%
Hypothetical polling

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Ryan Kelley

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Gretchen
Whitmer (D) 		Ryan
Kelley (R) 		Undecided
The Glengariff Group, Inc.[202] July 5–8, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 41% 9%
Target Insyght[203] May 26–27, 2022 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 57% 23% 19%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Ralph Rebandt

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Gretchen
Whitmer (D) 		Ralph
Rebandt (R) 		Undecided
The Glengariff Group, Inc.[202] July 5–8, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 37% 10%
Target Insyght[203] May 26–27, 2022 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 58% 19% 23%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Kevin Rinke

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Gretchen
Whitmer (D) 		Kevin
Rinke (R) 		Undecided
The Glengariff Group, Inc.[202] July 5–8, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 40% 8%
Target Insyght[203] May 26–27, 2022 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 58% 24% 18%
The Glengariff Group, Inc.[204] January 3–7, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 33% 17%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Garrett Soldano

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Gretchen
Whitmer (D) 		Garrett
Soldano (R) 		Undecided
The Glengariff Group, Inc.[202] July 5–8, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 38% 10%
Target Insyght[203] May 26–27, 2022 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 58% 22% 20%
The Glengariff Group, Inc.[204] January 3–7, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 33% 17%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. James Craig

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Gretchen
Whitmer (D) 		James
Craig (R) 		Undecided
Blueprint Polling (D)[206] February 1–4, 2022 632 (LV) ± 3.9% 44% 44% 12%
EPIC-MRA[207] January 15–20, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 41% 13%
The Glengariff Group, Inc.[204] January 3–7, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 39% 12%
ARW Strategies (R)[208][B] January 4–6, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 46% 8%
Strategic National (R)[205][B] September 18–19, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 46% 7%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[209] September 13–15, 2021 1,097 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 50% 5%
EPIC-MRA[210] August 9–15, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 44% 11%
Competitive Edge Research & Communication (R)[211][H] May 26 – June 4, 2021 809 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 45% 17%
Target Insyght[112] May 9–11, 2021 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 42% 10%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. John James

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Gretchen
Whitmer (D) 		John
James (R) 		Undecided
Competitive Edge Research & Communication (R)[211][H] May 26 – June 4, 2021 809 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 45% 5%
Target Insyght[112] May 9–11, 2021 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 39% 12%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Candice Miller

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Gretchen
Whitmer (D) 		Candice
Miller (R) 		Other Undecided
EPIC-MRA[212] February 19–25, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 45% – 9%
Denno Research[213] December 14–15, 2020 600 (V) ± 4.0% 46% 42% 13%[ao] –

Gretchen Whitmer vs. generic Republican

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Gretchen
Whitmer (D) 		Generic
Republican 		Undecided
EPIC-MRA[214] May 11–17, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 46% 9%
ARW Strategies (R)[215][I] April 18–20, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 46% 8%
Cygnal (R)[216] June 2–6, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 52% 7%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. generic opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Gretchen
Whitmer (D) 		Generic
Opponent 		Undecided
The Glengariff Group, Inc.[217] February 3–6, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 41%[ap] 20%[aq]

Debates

[edit]
2022 Michigan gubernatorial general election debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Republican
Key:

 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn

Whitmer Dixon
1 Oct. 13, 2022 WOOD-TV Rick Albin WOOD-TV[218] P P
2 Oct. 25, 2022 WXYZ-TV[219] P P

The first debate was held on Thursday, October 13 in Grand Rapids hosted by local TV station WOOD-TV. The two clashed on various issues such as abortion, the economy and COVID-19.[220] Analysts determined this debate to be a draw.[221]

The second debate was held on Tuesday, October 25 on the campus of Oakland University in Rochester. The debate was co-sponsored by Oakland University's Center for Civic Engagement and E.W. Scripps owned TV stations WXYZ-TV in Detroit, WXMI-TV in Grand Rapids and WSYM-TV in Lansing.[222] News stories about the debate specifically noted a question Whitmer gave Dixon when they argued on school safety and library books: "Do you really think books are more dangerous than guns?"[223]

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of October 23, 2022
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Gretchen Whitmer (D) $36,375,114 $30,507,077 $4,017,640
Tudor Dixon (R) $6,764,321 $3,799,440 $2,964,881
Source: Michigan Department of State[224]

Results

[edit]
2022 Michigan gubernatorial election[225]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic
2,430,505 54.47% +1.16%
Republican
1,960,635 43.94% +0.19%
Libertarian
  • Mary Buzuma
  • Brian Ellison
 38,800 0.87% −0.46%
Constitution
  • Donna Brandenburg
  • Mellissa Carone
 16,246 0.36% −0.33%
Green
  • Kevin Hogan
  • Destiny Clayton
 10,766 0.24% −0.44%
Natural Law
  • Daryl M. Simpson
  • Doug Dern
 4,973 0.11% −0.13%
Write-in 47 0.00% ±0.0%
Total votes 4,461,972 100.0%
Turnout 4,500,400 55.19%
Registered electors 8,154,832
Democratic hold

By county

[edit]
County[226] Gretchen Whitmer
Democratic		 Tudor Dixon
Republican		 Other Votes Margin Total
votes
% # % # % # % #
Alcona 34.71% 2,076 63.57% 3,802 1.72% 103 −28.86% −1,726 5,981
Alger 45.86% 1,984 52.20% 2,258 1.94% 84 −6.34% −274 4,326
Allegan 39.76% 22,802 58.58% 33,590 1.66% 950 −18.82% −10,788 57,342
Alpena 41.34% 5,779 56.65% 7,920 2.01% 281 −15.31% −2,141 13,980
Antrim 42.36% 5,937 55.85% 7,827 1.78% 250 −13.49% −1,890 14,014
Arenac 37.78% 2,709 60.17% 4,314 2.05% 147 −22.39% −1,605 7,170
Baraga 38.59% 1,329 59.70% 2,056 1.71% 59 −21.11% −727 3,444
Barry 37.63% 11,552 60.42% 18,547 1.95% 598 −22.79% −6,995 30,697
Bay 50.36% 24,783 47.65% 23,448 1.99% 978 2.71% 1,335 49,209
Benzie 50.95% 5,446 47.38% 5,064 1.67% 179 3.57% 382 10,689
Berrien 46.55% 29,803 51.79% 33,157 1.66% 1064 −5.24% −3,354 64,024
Branch 35.19% 5,676 62.81% 10,132 2.00% 322 −27.62% −4,456 16,130
Calhoun 48.31% 24,916 49.82% 25,694 1.87% 966 −1.51% −778 51,576
Cass 36.11% 7,350 62.23% 12,666 1.66% 337 −26.12% −5,316 20,353
Charlevoix 45.87% 6,728 52.27% 7,667 1.87% 274 −6.40% −939 14,669
Cheboygan 40.18% 5,357 57.80% 7,707 2.02% 270 −17.62% −2,350 13,334
Chippewa 43.36% 6,303 54.36% 7,902 2.28% 332 −11.00% −1,599 14,537
Clare 38.32% 5,057 59.48% 7,850 2.20% 291 −21.16% −2,793 13,198
Clinton 50.15% 20,664 48.31% 19,904 1.54% 636 1.84% 760 41,204
Crawford 40.65% 2,655 57.08% 3,728 2.27% 148 −16.43% −1,073 6,531
Delta 39.73% 6,890 58.23% 10,097 2.04% 354 −18.50% −3,207 17,341
Dickinson 35.96% 4,310 62.12% 7,446 1.92% 230 −26.16% −3,136 11,986
Eaton 53.78% 28,806 44.49% 23,828 1.73% 924 9.29% 4,978 53,558
Emmet 48.37% 9,285 49.96% 9,590 1.67% 320 −1.59% −305 19,195
Genesee 58.47% 100,325 39.79% 68,282 1.74% 2,987 18.68% 32,043 171,594
Gladwin 36.77% 4,422 61.18% 7,357 2.05% 246 −24.41% −2,935 12,025
Gogebic 45.47% 2,940 52.78% 3,413 1.75% 113 −7.31% −473 6,466
Grand Traverse 52.38% 27,396 45.90% 24,005 1.72% 901 6.48% 3,391 52,302
Gratiot 41.01% 6,285 56.51% 8,659 2.48% 380 −15.50% −2,374 15,324
Hillsdale 29.89% 5,575 67.80% 12,644 2.31% 431 −37.91% −7,069 18,650
Houghton 45.41% 7,030 52.51% 8,128 2.08% 322 −7.10% −1,098 15,480
Huron 35.39% 5,310 62.61% 9,395 2.01% 301 −27.22% −4,085 15,006
Ingham 69.23% 82,408 29.29% 34,869 1.48% 1,765 39.94% 47,539 119,042
Ionia 39.86% 10,845 58.02% 15,786 2.12% 577 −18.16% −4,941 27,208
Iosco 41.69% 5,266 56.30% 7,111 2.01% 254 −14.61% −1,845 12,631
Iron 39.79% 2,236 58.40% 3,282 1.81% 102 −18.61% −1,046 5,620
Isabella 52.51% 12,581 45.61% 10,927 1.87% 449 6.90% 1,654 23,957
Jackson 44.84% 29,011 53.22% 34,439 1.94% 1,255 −8.38% −5,428 64,705
Kalamazoo 62.10% 72,516 36.34% 42,436 1.56% 1,824 25.76% 30,080 116,776
Kalkaska 33.98% 3,009 63.43% 5,616 2.59% 229 −29.45% −2,607 8,854
Kent 54.32% 162,899 44.08% 132,172 1.60% 4,801 10.24% 30,727 299,872
Keweenaw 47.91% 666 50.43% 701 1.65% 23 −2.52% −35 1,390
Lake 39.56% 2,081 58.08% 3,055 2.36% 124 −18.52% −974 5,260
Lapeer 36.49% 15,983 61.50% 26,940 2.01% 879 −25.01% −10,957 43,802
Leelanau 55.19% 8,540 43.63% 6,752 1.18% 182 11.56% 1,788 15,474
Lenawee 42.58% 18,248 55.52% 23,796 1.90% 813 −12.94% −5,548 42,857
Livingston 42.75% 46,524 55.58% 60,494 1.67% 1,821 −12.83% −13,970 108,839
Luce 33.22% 786 64.24% 1,520 2.54% 60 −31.02% −734 2,366
Mackinac 42.79% 2,567 55.43% 3,325 1.78% 107 −12.64% −758 5,999
Macomb 51.82% 199,277 46.62% 179,258 1.56% 6,009 5.20% 20,019 384,544
Manistee 47.65% 6,026 50.32% 6,364 2.02% 256 −2.67% −338 12,646
Marquette 60.19% 18,880 38.15% 11,967 1.66% 522 22.04% 6,913 31,369
Mason 43.49% 6,419 54.32% 8,018 2.19% 324 −10.83% −1,599 14,761
Mecosta 39.22% 6,867 58.61% 10,262 2.18% 381 −19.39% −3,395 17,510
Menominee 34.59% 3,347 63.34% 6,129 2.07% 200 −28.75% −2,782 9,676
Midland 47.30% 19,497 50.85% 20,964 1.85% 763 −3.55% −1,467 41,224
Missaukee 26.79% 1,995 71.24% 5,306 1.97% 147 −44.45% −3,311 7,448
Monroe 42.73% 29,482 55.53% 38,312 1.74% 1,203 −12.80% −8,830 68,997
Montcalm 36.45% 9,622 61.24% 16,165 2.30% 608 −24.79% −6,543 26,395
Montmorency 33.23% 1,701 64.49% 3,301 2.29% 117 −31.26% −1,600 5,119
Muskegon 53.19% 39,269 44.86% 33,121 1.95% 1,443 8.33% 6,148 73,833
Newaygo 32.59% 7,417 65.37% 14,879 2.04% 465 −32.78% −7,462 22,761
Oakland 60.92% 383,895 37.84% 238,448 1.25% 7,862 23.08% 145,447 630,205
Oceana 39.88% 4,820 58.02% 7,012 2.10% 254 −18.14% −2,192 12,086
Ogemaw 35.71% 3,532 62.18% 6,151 2.11% 209 −26.47% −2,619 9,892
Ontonagon 40.47% 1,319 57.13% 1,862 2.39% 78 −16.66% −543 3,259
Osceola 30.58% 3,174 67.00% 6,954 2.43% 251 −36.42% −3,780 10,379
Oscoda 33.77% 1,355 63.63% 2,553 2.59% 104 −29.86% −1,198 4,012
Otsego 38.53% 4,818 59.35% 7,422 2.12% 265 −20.82% −2,604 12,505
Ottawa 40.26% 58,952 58.29% 85,361 1.45% 2,119 −18.03% −26,409 146,432
Presque Isle 40.85% 2,981 57.07% 4,165 2.08% 152 −16.22% −1,184 7,298
Roscommon 40.80% 5,284 57.07% 7,391 2.13% 276 −16.27% −2,107 12,951
Saginaw 53.00% 43,219 45.37% 37,002 1.63% 1,329 7.63% 6,217 81,550
Sanilac 31.73% 5,967 66.33% 12,473 1.94% 364 −34.60% −6,506 18,804
Schoolcraft 39.27% 1,527 58.23% 2,264 2.49% 97 −18.96% −737 3,888
Shiawassee 45.46% 14,730 52.37% 16,969 2.17% 703 −6.91% −2,239 32,402
St. Clair 40.49% 30,170 57.35% 42,731 2.15% 1,604 −16.86% −12,561 74,505
St. Joseph 38.35% 8,402 59.60% 13,059 2.05% 449 −21.25% −4,657 21,910
Tuscola 35.06% 8,418 62.81% 15,078 2.13% 511 −27.75% −6,660 24,007
Van Buren 48.08% 15,347 50.04% 15,974 1.88% 601 −1.96% −627 31,922
Washtenaw 75.15% 135,904 23.67% 42,804 1.18% 2,140 51.48% 93,100 180,848
Wayne 70.86% 457,601 27.95% 180,487 1.18% 7,651 42.91% 277,114 645,739
Wexford 37.37% 5,645 60.45% 9,131 2.18% 329 −23.08% −3,486 15,105

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Whitmer won 9 of 13 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.[227]

District Whitmer Dixon Representative
1st 44% 54% Jack Bergman
2nd 40% 58% John Moolenaar
3rd 56% 43% Peter Meijer (117th Congress)
Hillary Scholten (118th Congress)
4th 50% 49% Bill Huizenga
5th 41% 57% Tim Walberg
6th 66% 32% Debbie Dingell
7th 54% 44% Elissa Slotkin
8th 55% 43% Dan Kildee
9th 41% 58% Lisa McClain
10th 55% 43% John James
11th 64% 35% Haley Stevens
12th 76% 23% Rashida Tlaib
13th 77% 22% Shri Thanedar

Analysis

[edit]

Whitmer led Dixon in most of the polls. Most Republican donors chose not to fund campaign ads for Dixon, causing the TV airwaves to be dominated by ads for Whitmer, which included negative ads against Dixon.[162][228] Whitmer also spent a lot more in digital advertising compared to Dixon.[229] Abortion rights, which were on the ballot in the same election, were the subject of negative ads against Dixon, who opposed abortion rights.[230] Although aggregate polling had Whitmer up by about 3%, and a last-minute poll by Trafalgar Group had Dixon ahead by 1%, the election was not close. Whitmer defeated Dixon at the same time Michigan voters approved a ballot measure that would guarantee abortion rights in the Michigan constitution.[231] Democrats swept the other statewide partisan races and won control of both the state House and state Senate.[232] This marked the first time Democrats took control of both houses of the Michigan legislature since 1984.[233] Exit polls found that Whitmer won nearly 70% of college-educated White women.[234]

Despite Dixon's loss, she managed to flip Gogebic County in the Upper Peninsula (which had voted for Whitmer in 2018), making this the first election since 1932 where a Democrat won the Michigan governor's mansion without carrying Gogebic County.[235] Conversely, Whitmer flipped the counties of Benzie and Grand Traverse; the last time the Democratic candidate won these counties were 2006 and 1986, respectively.[236]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ a b c Rebandt with 2%
  4. ^ "Someone else" with 7%, Rebandt with 3%
  5. ^ a b Rebandt with 3%
  6. ^ a b c d Rebandt with 1%
  7. ^ Write-ins (volunteered response) with 7%, Rebandt with 1%
  8. ^ Brandenburg with 2%, Rebandt with 1%, Markey with 0%
  9. ^ Chenge with 2%
  10. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  11. ^ Buzuma (L) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  12. ^ "Third party candidate" with 2%
  13. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%
  14. ^ "Third party candidate" with 2%
  15. ^ Buzuma (L) with 1%
  16. ^ Buzuma (L) with 2%; Hogan (G) with 1%; Brandenburg (UTP) with <1%; Simpson (NL) with <1%
  17. ^ Buzuma (L) with 2%; Hogan (G) with 1%; Brandenburg (UTP) with <1%
  18. ^ "Third party candidate" with 2%
  19. ^ Buzuma (L) with 2%; Hogan (G) with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  20. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  21. ^ "Other/Refused" with 5%
  22. ^ "Third party candidate" with 2%
  23. ^ "Third party candidate" with 3%
  24. ^ "Third party candidate" with 3%
  25. ^ "Third party candidate" with 3%
  26. ^ Buzuma (L) with 2%; "Other" with <1%
  27. ^ "Third party candidate" with 3%
  28. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%
  29. ^ "Third party candidate" with 3%
  30. ^ "Neither" with 3%; "Other with 1%
  31. ^ "Neither" with 2%
  32. ^ Brandenburg (UTP) with 2%; Buzuma (L) with 1%; Hogan (G) with 0%
  33. ^ "Third party candidate" with 4%
  34. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  35. ^ Buzuma (L) with 3%; Hogan (G) with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  36. ^ Buzuma (L) with 3%; Hogan (G) with 1%; Brandenburg (UTP) with <1%; Simpson (NL) with <1%
  37. ^ Buzuma with 4%; "Refused to answer" with 3%; Hogan, Brandenburg, and Simpson with 1%
  38. ^ Buzuma with 3%; "Other" with 1%
  39. ^ "Third party candidate" with 7%
  40. ^ Buzuma with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  41. ^ Includes Undecided
  42. ^ "Elect someone new" as opposed to "re-elect Whitmer" with 41%
  43. ^ "It depends" with 14%; Undecided with 6%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ This poll was sponsored by Rinke's campaign.
  2. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Craig's campaign
  3. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by American Greatness, a conservative news outlet.
  4. ^ Poll conducted for Citizens United, a conservative non-profit organization.
  5. ^ This poll was sponsored by the Michigan Association of Broadcasters.
  6. ^ Poll conducted for WJRT-TV and the Detroit Free Press.
  7. ^ Poll conducted for MIRS, Governmental Consultant Services Inc., and the Life Insurance Association of Michigan.
  8. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by the Michigan Republican Party.
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by DePerno's campaign for Attorney General

References

[edit]
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