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2022 United States Senate election in Arizona

From Wikipedia - Reading time: 30 min

For related races, see 2022 United States Senate elections.
Not to be confused with 2022 Arizona Senate election.

2022 United States Senate election in Arizona
← 2020 (special) November 8, 2022 (2022-11-08) 2028 →
 
Nominee Mark Kelly Blake Masters
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,322,027 1,196,308
Percentage 51.39% 46.51%
Kelly:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Masters:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Mark Kelly
Democratic

Elected U.S. senator

Mark Kelly
Democratic

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The 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona.

The seat was previously held by Republican John McCain, who won his final term in 2016 and died from glioblastoma on August 25, 2018. Governor Doug Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill the seat. Kyl resigned at the end of that year and Ducey replaced him with Martha McSally, who then lost to Democrat Mark Kelly in 2020.

Primaries in Arizona took place on August 2, 2022. Kelly won renomination without opposition, while venture capitalist Blake Masters won the Republican nomination against a large field of candidates. Although Arizona typically leans Republican, Kelly led Masters by low single digits in aggregate polling. Kelly held a significant fundraising advantage until many Republican-aligned groups began spending to assist Masters in the final weeks of the campaign.[1] On November 1, Libertarian nominee Marc Victor dropped out of the race and endorsed Masters.[2][3][4]

Kelly won re-election, defeating Masters by a comfortable margin of about 5 points.[5] This was the first time Democrats won a full term to this seat since 1962. The 2022 race was competitive and seen as crucial to determining party control of the U.S. Senate; with Kelly's victory in Arizona and a Democratic victory in Nevada, in addition to a Democratic gain in Pennsylvania, it was projected on November 12 that the Democratic caucus would retain control of the Senate in the 118th United States Congress.[6][7] Masters conceded the race to Kelly on November 15, 2022.[8]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Mark Kelly

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S Attorneys

Local officials

Organizations

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[24][25]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mark Kelly (incumbent) 589,400 100.0%
Total votes 589,400 100.0%

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Did not file

[edit]
  • Craig Brittain[31]
  • Robert Paveza, software engineer[32]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Mark Brnovich

Individuals

Newspapers

Jim Lamon

U.S. Executive Branch officials

Statewide officials

State legislators

Individuals

Organizations

Former[clarification needed]

Blake Masters

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Individuals

Organizations

Rejected by candidate

Justin Olson

Organizations

  • Stand for Health Freedom[65]

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Mark
Brnovich 		Jim
Lamon 		Blake
Masters 		Michael
McGuire 		Justin
Olson 		Undecided
[a] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics[66] July 27 – August 1, 2022 August 2, 2022 14.5% 22.0% 37.0% 8.5% 3.3% 17.7% Masters +15.0

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mark
Brnovich 		Jim
Lamon 		Blake
Masters 		Michael
McGuire 		Justin
Olson 		Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[67] July 30 – August 1, 2022 1,064 (LV) ± 2.9% 16% 24% 39% 7% 4% – 9%
Emerson College[68] July 28–30, 2022 600 (LV) ± 3.9% 14% 22% 40% 12% 3% – 9%
Rasmussen Reports[69] July 27–28, 2022 710 (LV) ± 4.0% 16% 19% 31% 10% 3% 6% 15%
OH Predictive Insights[70] July 27, 2022 502 (LV) ± 4.4% 12% 21% 36% 5% 3% – 22%
Battleground Connect (R)[71] July 26–27, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.7% 16% 30% 28% 8% 6% – 12%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[72] July 25–27, 2022 1,071 (LV) ± 2.9% 15% 27% 35% 8% 6% – 10%
Battleground Connect (R)[73] July 17–18, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.7% 16% 33% 28% 7% 2% – 14%
Cygnal (R)[74] July 12–13, 2022 419 (LV) ± 4.8% 18% 20% 30% 5% 2% – 25%
Battleground Connect (R)[75] July 7–9, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.7% 16% 29% 27% 4% – – 24%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)[76] July 2–7, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 13% 14% 23% 5% 2% – 44%
Alloy Analytics (R)/J.L. Partners[77] July 5–6, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 10% 14% 26% 5% 0% – 45%
OH Predictive Insights[78] June 30 – July 2, 2022 515 (LV) ± 4.3% 14% 18% 25% 6% 2% – 35%
Public Policy Polling (D)[79] June 28, 2022 595 (LV) ± 4.0% 15% 10% 29% 5% – – 41%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[80] June 7–9, 2022 1,077 (LV) ± 2.9% 24% 17% 29% 4% 4% – 22%
Data Orbital (R)[81] June 1–3, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.3% 18% 20% 15% – – 12% 36%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[82][A] May 17–18, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 18% 18% 22% 7% 2% – 34%
Cygnal (R)[83][B] April 28–30, 2022 – (LV) – 19% 20% 19% 7% 2% – 33%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[84] April 25–28, 2022 1,064 (LV) ± 3.0% 24% 25% 19% 8% 3% – 21%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[85][C] April 21–24, 2022 – (LV) – 22% 25% 16% 6% – – 31%
OH Predictive Insights[86] April 4–5, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 21% 16% 9% 6% 3% – 45%
Data Orbital (R)[87] April 1–3, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.3% 20% 26% 10% 7% 4% – 33%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)[88] March 26–27, 2022 264 (LV) ± 6.0% 11% 10% 6% 4% – 8% 61%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[89][A] March 13–14, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 14% 14% 16% 3% 1% – 52%
Alloy Analytics (R)/J.L. Partners[90] March 9–12, 2022 433 (LV) ± 4.7% 20% 15% 15% 3% 1% – 45%
Data Orbital (R)[87] March 2022 – (LV) – 23% 17% 14% 4% 5% – 37%
Data Orbital (R)[87] February 11–13, 2022 300 (LV) ± 5.7% 22% 17% 15% 5% 5% – 37%
co/efficient (R)[91] February 6–8, 2022 755 (LV) ± 3.6% 17% 13% 12% 3% 1% 11% 44%
OH Predictive Insights[92] January 11–13, 2022 302 (RV) ± 5.6% 25% 7% 6% 11% 4% – 47%
OH Predictive Insights[93] November 1–8, 2021 252 (RV) ± 6.2% 27% 5% 9% 12% 2% – 46%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[94][A] October 26–28, 2021 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 26% 4% 14% 2% 2% <1%[c] 52%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[95][D] September 9–12, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 41% 5% 7% 4% – – 43%
OH Predictive Insights[96] September 7–12, 2021 311 (RV) ± 5.6% 27% 3% 6% 14% – – 51%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[94][A] August 4–8, 2021 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 29% 7% 5% 3% – <1%[c] 56%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)[97] May 3–5, 2021 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 28% – 1% 1% – – 61%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Kirk
Adams 		Andy
Biggs 		Mark
Brnovich 		Doug
Ducey 		Jim
Lamon 		Blake
Masters 		Michael
McGuire 		Justin
Olson 		Other Undecided
co/efficient (R)[91] February 6–8, 2022 755 (LV) ± 3.6% – – 14% 13% 11% 11% 3% 1% 9% 38%
OH Predictive Insights[92] January 11–13, 2022 302 (RV) ± 5.6% – – 13% 35% 4% 4% 9% 2% – 34%
WPA Intelligence (R)[98][E] April 5–6, 2021 505 (LV) ± 4.4% – 46% – 45% – – – – – 9%
OH Predictive Insights[99] March 8–12, 2021 690 (RV) ± 3.7% 2%[d] 27% – – – 2% 3% – – 67%
6%[e] 26% – – – 2% 10% – – 56%
Data Orbital (R)[100][F] February 17–19, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 2% 36% – – 1% 1% 3% – 4% 53%

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results by county
  Masters
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Lamon
  •   30-40%
Republican primary results[24][25]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Blake Masters 327,198 40.24%
Republican Jim Lamon 228,467 28.10%
Republican Mark Brnovich 144,092 17.72%
Republican Michael McGuire 71,100 8.75%
Republican Justin Olson 41,985 5.16%
Write-in 226 0.03%
Total votes 813,068 100.0%

Libertarian primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]
  • Marc Victor, attorney and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2012[101] (withdrew from general election, endorsed Blake Masters)[2]

Results

[edit]
Libertarian primary results[24][102][25]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Marc Victor 3,065 100.0%
Total votes 3,065 100.0%

General election

[edit]

In what was initially expected to be one of the most widely contested elections in the nation, Kelly amassed a massive fundraising advantage over Masters, raising a record $75 million compared to Masters's $12 million.[103] Due to the Supreme Court's Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, which reversed Roe v. Wade, Kelly spent the campaign heavily attacking Masters over his anti-abortion stance, which was seen as hurting Masters especially among women voters. He also attacked Masters's support for privatizing Social Security, as Arizona has many retired seniors who use the program. Masters's claim that the 2020 presidential election was stolen also hurt him among voters.[104] Steven J. Law, the leader of a Republican-aligned super PAC, said that Masters "had scored the worst focus group results of any candidate he had ever seen," and cancelled all of its Arizona television advertisements supporting Masters to divert money to other races.[105]

With the limited amount of money he had, Masters attempted to portray Kelly as weak on illegal immigration, supportive of spending programs that caused inflation, and too supportive of President Joe Biden. In the final weeks of the campaign, Republican groups increased the amount of money they were spending on the race and polls began to tighten, and many news outlets moved the race from lean Democrat to tossup. However, in the end, Kelly relatively easily defeated Masters, which helped Democrats in retaining the Senate.[106] According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Kelly won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Masters's defeat.[107]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[108] Tossup October 27, 2022
Inside Elections[109] Tilt D October 21, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[110] Lean D October 19, 2022
Politico[111] Tossup October 27, 2022
RCP[112] Tossup October 25, 2022
Fox News[113] Tossup October 25, 2022
DDHQ[114] Lean D October 25, 2022
FiveThirtyEight[115] Lean D October 25, 2022
The Economist[116] Lean D November 1, 2022

Debates

[edit]
2022 United States Senate general election in Arizona debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Republican Libertarian
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee

 W  Withdrawn

Mark Kelly Blake Masters Marc Victor
1 October 6, 2022 Arizona PBS Ted Simons [117] P P P

Endorsements

[edit]
Mark Kelly (D)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

U.S. Attorneys

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Blake Masters (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Governors

Local officials

Party officials

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Rejected by candidate

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Mark
Kelly (D) 		Blake
Masters (R) 		Undecided
[f] 		Margin
RealClearPolitics[163] October 30 – November 7, 2022 November 7, 2022 48.0% 48.3% 3.7% Masters +0.3
FiveThirtyEight[164] September 7, 2021 – November 7, 2022 November 7, 2022 48.6% 47.1% 4.3% Kelly +1.5
270ToWin[165] November 3–7, 2022 November 7, 2022 47.9% 46.6% 5.5% Kelly +1.3
Average 48.3% 47.2% 4.5% Kelly +1.1

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mark
Kelly (D) 		Blake
Masters (R) 		Marc
Victor (L) 		Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[166] November 5–7, 2022 1,094 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 48% 1% – 4%
Data Orbital (R)[167] November 4–6, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 47% 2% 1%[g] 3%
Research Co.[168] November 4–6, 2022 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 49% 46% 2% – 3%
Data for Progress (D)[169] November 2–6, 2022 1,359 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 50% 2% – –
Targoz Market Research[170] November 2–6, 2022 560 (LV) ± 4.1% 50% 47% 2% – –
KAConsulting (R)[171][G] November 2–3, 2022 501 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 46% – 1% 6%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[172] November 2, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 48% 48% 2% – 2%
HighGround Inc.[173] November 1–2, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 45% – 2%[h] 6%
Remington Research Group (R)[174] November 1–2, 2022 1,075 (LV) ± 2.9% 48% 47% 2% – 3%
Marist College[175] October 31 – November 2, 2022 1,157 (RV) ± 4.1% 49% 45% – 1%[i] 8%
1,015 (LV) ± 4.3% 50% 47% – 1%[j] 2%
Big Data Poll (R)[176] October 31 – November 2, 2022 1,051 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 49% – – 4%
Patriot Polling (R)[177] October 30 – November 2, 2022 814 (RV) – 49% 48% – – 4%
Civiqs[178] October 29 – November 2, 2022 852 (LV) ± 4.2% 49% 49% – 2%[k] 1%
November 1, 2022 Victor withdraws from the race and endorses Masters
Emerson College[179] October 30 – November 1, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 48% 3% 1%[l] 1%
48% 48% 3% 1%[m] –
The Phillips Academy[180] October 29–30, 2022 985 (LV) ± 3.1% 47% 47% 2% – 5%
Fox News[181] October 26–30, 2022 1,003 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 45% – 4%[n] 5%
Wick Insights (R)[182] October 26–30, 2022 1,122 (LV) ± 3.2% 49% 47% – 3%[o] 1%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R)[183][E] October 24–26, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 46% 3% – –
OH Predictive Insights[184] October 24–26, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 46% 3% – 3%
Siena College/NYT[185] October 24–26, 2022 604 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 45% 1% – 3%
BSP Research/Shaw & Co.[186][H] October 19–26, 2022 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 44% 40% – 5%[p] 11%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[172] October 24–25, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 45% 43% 6% – 6%
co/efficient (R)[187] October 20–21, 2022 1,111 (LV) ± 3.1% 47% 45% 4% – 4%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[188][I] October 14–18, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 45% 2% <1%[q] 6%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[189][J] October 16–17, 2022 1,078 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 46% 3% – 4%
Data for Progress (D)[190] October 11–17, 2022 893 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 47% 3% – 4%
Wick Insights (R)[191] October 8–14, 2022 1,058 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 46% – 2%[r] 3%
HighGround Inc.[192][K] October 12–13, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 42% 40% 5% 3%[s] 10%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[193] October 11, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 46% 42% 5% – 7%
Kurt Jetta (D)[194][L] October 9–10, 2022 894 (RV) – 54% 32% – – 15%
551 (LV) 55% 38% – – 7%
Ascend Action (R)[195] October 8–10, 2022 954 (LV) ± 3.2% 48% 44% – 5%[t] 2%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[196][M] October 8–10, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 43% 4% – 7%
OH Predictive Insights[197] October 4–6, 2022 674 (LV) ± 3.8% 46% 33% 15% – 7%
Big Data Poll (R)[198] October 2–5, 2022 970 (LV) ± 3.1% 46% 45% 2% – 7%
YouGov/CBS News[199] September 30 – October 4, 2022 1,164 (RV) ± 3.8% 51% 48% – – 1%
CNN/SSRS[200] September 26 – October 2, 2022 900 (RV) ± 4.4% 52% 42% – 7%[u] –
795 (LV) ± 4.6% 51% 45% – 4%[v] –
Fox News[201] September 22–26, 2022 1,008 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 40% – 6%[w] 9%
Suffolk University[202] September 21–25, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 42% 2% – 7%
Marist College[203] September 19–22, 2022 1,260 (RV) ± 3.6% 51% 41% – – 8%
1,076 (LV) ± 3.9% 50% 45% – – 5%
Data for Progress (D)[204] September 15–19, 2022 768 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 47% 2% – 3%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[205] September 14–17, 2022 1080 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 45% 3% – 5%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[206] September 8–15, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 42% 4% – 4%
52% 45% – – 3%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[196][M] September 6–11, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 50% 40% 6% – 5%
Kurt Jetta (D)[207][L] September 9–10, 2022 972 (RV) ± 3.5% 53% 32% – – 15%
563 (LV) 55% 35% – – 9%
OH Predictive Insights[208] September 6–9, 2022 654 (LV) ± 3.8% 47% 35% 6% – 12%
Emerson College[209] September 6–7, 2022 627 (LV) ± 3.9% 47% 45% – 3%[x] 5%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[210] September 6–7, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 45% 39% 4% – 12%
Echelon Insights[211] August 31 – September 7, 2022 773 (RV) ±4.5% 52% 37% – – 11%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[212] August 24–27, 2022 1,074 (LV) ± 2.9% 48% 44% 4% – 4%
RMG Research[213] August 16–22, 2022 750 (LV) ± 3.6% 50% 43% – – 7%
Fox News[214] August 12–16, 2022 1,012 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 42% – 2% 6%
Kurt Jetta (D)[215][L] August 4–8, 2022 1,107 (A) ± 2.9% 48% 34% – – 19%
877 (RV) ± 3.3% 50% 34% – – 16%
512 (LV) ± 4.3% 54% 40% – – 7%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[216][N] August 1–2, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 44% – – 7%
Beacon Research (D)[217][O] July 5–20, 2022 802 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 34% – 1% 13%
504 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 39% – 2% 8%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[218][A] July 13–14, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 44% – – 7%
Change Research (D)[219][P] June 24–27, 2022 705 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 39% – – 13%
Blueprint Polling (D)[220] May 12–16, 2022 608 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 32% – – 19%
OH Predictive Insights[96] September 7–12, 2021 882 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 35% – – 21%
Hypothetical polling

Mark Kelly vs. Mark Brnovich

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mark
Kelly (D) 		Mark
Brnovich (R) 		Other Undecided
Beacon Research (D)[217][O] July 5–20, 2022 802 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 35% 1% 11%
504 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 40% 2% 7%
Blueprint Polling (D)[220] May 12–16, 2022 608 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 33% – 18%
Data for Progress (D)[221] January 21–24, 2022 1,469 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 47% – 4%
OH Predictive Insights[96] September 7–12, 2021 882 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 39% – 18%
OH Predictive Insights[222] May 3–5, 2021 935 (RV) ± 3.2% 46% 36% – 18%

Mark Kelly vs. Jim Lamon

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mark
Kelly (D) 		Jim
Lamon (R) 		Other Undecided
Beacon Research (D)[217][O] July 5–20, 2022 802 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 34% 2% 14%
504 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 40% 2% 9%
Change Research (D)[219][P] June 24–27, 2022 705 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 41% – 12%
Blueprint Polling (D)[220] May 12–16, 2022 608 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 34% – 18%
OH Predictive Insights[96] September 7–12, 2021 882 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 36% – 21%

Mark Kelly vs. Michael McGuire

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mark
Kelly (D) 		Michael
McGuire (R) 		Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[96] September 7–12, 2021 882 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 37% 19%
OH Predictive Insights[222] May 3–5, 2021 935 (RV) ± 3.2% 44% 35% 21%

Mark Kelly vs. Andy Biggs

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mark
Kelly (D) 		Andy
Biggs (R) 		Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[222] May 3–5, 2021 935 (RV) ± 3.2% 47% 36% 18%

Mark Kelly vs. Doug Ducey

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mark
Kelly (D) 		Doug
Ducey (R) 		Undecided
Data for Progress (D)[221] January 21–24, 2022 1,469 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 47% 4%

Mark Kelly vs. Kelli Ward

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mark
Kelly (D) 		Kelli
Ward (R) 		Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[222] May 3–5, 2021 935 (RV) ± 3.2% 47% 36% 18%

Mark Kelly vs. Kari Lake

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mark
Kelly (D) 		Kari
Lake (R) 		Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[222] May 3–5, 2021 935 (RV) ± 3.2% 46% 35% 19%

Mark Kelly vs. Jack McCain

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mark
Kelly (D) 		Jack
McCain (R) 		Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[222] May 3–5, 2021 935 (RV) ± 3.2% 43% 29% 28%

Mark Kelly vs. Kimberly Yee

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mark
Kelly (D) 		Kimberly
Yee (R) 		Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[222] May 3–5, 2021 935 (RV) ± 3.2% 45% 35% 19%

Mark Kelly vs. generic Republican

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mark
Kelly (D) 		Generic
Republican 		Other Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[223] May 9–16, 2022 938 (RV) ± 3.3% 40% 39% – 21%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)[224] March 26–27, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 41% 2% 12%
OH Predictive Insights[225] March 7–15, 2022 753 (RV) ± 3.6% 37% 39% – 24%
Change Research (D)[219][P] March 2022 – (LV) – 43% 46% – 11%
OH Predictive Insights[92] January 11–13, 2022 855 (RV) ± 3.4% 42% 38% – 19%
OH Predictive Insights[93] November 1–8, 2021 713 (RV) ± 3.7% 40% 39% – 21%

Mark Kelly vs. generic opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mark
Kelly (D) 		Generic
Opponent 		Undecided
Fabrizio Lee (R)[218][A] July 13–14, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 48% 7%

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Democrat 		Generic
Republican 		Undecided
Fabrizio Lee (R)[218][A] July 13–14, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 46% 8%

Results

[edit]
2022 United States Senate election in Arizona[226]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Mark Kelly (incumbent) 1,322,027 51.39% +0.23%
Republican Blake Masters 1,196,308 46.51% −2.30%
Libertarian Marc Victor (withdrawn) 53,762 2.09% N/A
Write-in 197 0.01% -0.02%
Total votes 2,572,294 100.0%
Democratic hold

By county

[edit]
By county
County Mark Kelly
Democratic 		Blake Masters
Republican 		Marc Victor
Libertarian 		Write-in Margin Total
votes
# % # % # % # % # %
Apache 18,005 67.39 8,163 30.55 549 2.05 2 0.01 9,842 36.84 26,719
Cochise 20,002 42.57 25,539 54.35 1,383 2.94 67 0.14 -5,537 -11.78 46,991
Coconino 35,149 63.84 18,697 33.96 1,199 2.18 13 0.02 16,452 29.88 55,058
Gila 7,984 35.42 13,958 61.91 601 2.67 1 0.00 -5,974 -26.50 22,544
Graham 3,243 29.79 7,388 67.87 255 2.34 0 0.00 -4,145 -38.08 10,886
Greenlee 970 39.40 1,392 56.54 100 4.06 0 0.00 -422 -17.14 2,462
La Paz 1,711 30.94 3,656 66.11 160 2.89 3 0.05 -1,945 -35.17 5,530
Maricopa 809,573 52.19 710,491 45.80 31,099 2.00 63 0.00 99,082 6.39 1,551,226
Mohave 21,040 25.69 58,737 71.72 2,117 2.58 5 0.01 -37,697 -46.03 81,899
Navajo 18,724 46.08 20,970 51.61 927 2.28 9 0.02 -2,246 -5.53 40,630
Pima 248,230 61.95 144,936 36.17 7,544 1.88 15 0.00 103,294 25.78 400,725
Pinal 62,009 42.92 78,820 54.55 3,650 2.53 7 0.00 -16,811 -11.64 144,486
Santa Cruz 8,988 68.16 3,892 29.52 304 2.31 2 0.02 5,096 38.65 13,186
Yavapai 45,258 36.60 75,752 61.26 2,633 2.13 8 0.01 -30,494 -24.66 123,651
Yuma 21,141 45.66 23,917 51.66 1,241 2.68 2 0.00 -2,776 -6.00 46,301
Totals 1,322,027 51.39 1,196,308 46.51 53,762 2.09 197 0.01 125,719 4.89 2,572,294

By congressional district

[edit]

Kelly won 5 out of 9 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.[227]

District Kelly Masters Representative
1st 52% 46% David Schweikert
2nd 47% 51% Tom O'Halleran (117th Congress)
Eli Crane (118th Congress)
3rd 76% 21% Ruben Gallego
4th 57% 41% Greg Stanton
5th 44% 54% Andy Biggs
6th 54% 44% Ann Kirkpatrick (117th Congress)
Juan Ciscomani (118th Congress)
7th 68% 30% Raúl Grijalva
8th 46% 52% Debbie Lesko
9th 38% 60% Paul Gosar

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ a b Paveza with <1%
  4. ^ Response without candidates' job titles, besides 'Major General' for McGuire
  5. ^ Response with candidates' job titles
  6. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  7. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  8. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  9. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  10. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  11. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  12. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  13. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  14. ^ "Other" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  15. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  16. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
  17. ^ "Other" with <1%; "Refused" with <1%
  18. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  19. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  20. ^ "Another candidate" with 5%
  21. ^ "Neither" with 5%; "Other" with 2%
  22. ^ "Neither" with 3%; "Other" with 1%
  23. ^ "Other" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 3%
  24. ^ "Someone else" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d e f g This poll was sponsored by Saving Arizona, which supports Blake Masters
  2. ^ This poll was sponsored by Kari Lake's campaign for governor
  3. ^ This poll was sponsored by Lamon's campaign
  4. ^ This poll was sponsored by Advancing Arizona Forward, which supports Mark Brnovich
  5. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action
  6. ^ This poll was sponsored by Andy Biggs's campaign committee
  7. ^ Poll conducted for Citizens United, a conservative non-profit organization.
  8. ^ Poll conducted for Univision.
  9. ^ Poll conducted for The Federalist, a conservative online magazine.
  10. ^ This poll was sponsored by The Daily Wire
  11. ^ This poll was sponsored by Arizona's Family
  12. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Masters
  13. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by the Sentinel Action Fund, which supports Masters
  14. ^ This poll was sponsored by America Next
  15. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project
  16. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Future Majority and America’s Future Majority Fund

References

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[edit]

Official campaign websites

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