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Rubio: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Demings: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Florida |
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Government |
The 2022 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Florida. Incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio won re-election to a third term, defeating Democratic nominee Val Demings in a landslide. Rubio was first elected in 2010, filling the seat of appointed Senator George LeMieux. Rubio won re-election to a third term, becoming the first Republican to do so in Florida history.[1]
The primary elections for Republicans and Democrats took place on August 23 to finalize candidates for the November election.[2][3] Rubio won the uncontested Republican primary, while incumbent U.S. Representative Val Demings won the Democratic nomination.
Despite some predicting a close race early,[4] Rubio went on to win by a comfortable 16.4%, improving upon his 2016 performance by 8.7%. According to exit polls, Rubio won 64% of White voters, 56% of Latino voters, and 9% of African American voters.[5]
U.S. presidents
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U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
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Individuals
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ricardo De La Fuente |
Val Demings |
Brian Rush |
William Sanchez |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of North Florida[89] | August 8–12, 2022 | 529 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 2% | 80% | 4% | 4% | 10% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Val Demings | 1,263,706 | 84.3 | |
Democratic | Brian Rush | 94,185 | 6.3 | |
Democratic | William Sanchez | 84,576 | 5.6 | |
Democratic | Ricardo De La Fuente | 56,749 | 3.8 | |
Total votes | 1,499,216 | 100.0 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[100] | Likely R | October 18, 2022 |
Inside Elections[101] | Likely R | August 25, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[102] | Likely R | August 24, 2022 |
Politico[103] | Likely R | November 3, 2022 |
RCP[104] | Lean R | February 24, 2022 |
Fox News[105] | Lean R | May 12, 2022 |
DDHQ[106] | Likely R | July 20, 2022 |
538[107] | Solid R | November 4, 2022 |
The Economist[108] | Likely R | September 7, 2022 |
U.S. presidents
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Sheriffs
Organizations
Labor unions
U.S. presidents
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
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Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Marco Rubio (R) |
Val Demings (D) |
Undecided [b] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics[126] | October 17, 2022 – November 6, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 52.4% | 43.6% | 4.0% | Rubio +8.8 |
FiveThirtyEight[127] | September 18, 2022 – November 4, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 52.3% | 43.5% | 4.2% | Rubio +8.8 |
270towin[128] | November 4–7, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 51.6% | 42.4% | 6.0% | Rubio +9.2 |
Average | 52.1% | 43.2% | 4.7% | Rubio +8.9 |
Graphical summary
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Marco Rubio (R) |
Val Demings (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Research Co.[129] | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 52% | 42% | 2%[c] | 4% |
Data for Progress (D)[130] | November 2–6, 2022 | 1,436 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 43% | 2%[d] | – |
Amber Integrated (R)[131] | November 1–2, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 40% | 4%[e] | 7% |
Civiqs[132] | October 29 – November 2, 2022 | 772 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 52% | 45% | 2%[f] | 1% |
InsiderAdvantage (R)[133] | November 1, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 51% | 45% | 1%[g] | 3% |
Siena College[134] | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 659 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 43% | 2%[h] | 4% |
Victory Insights[135] | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 50% | 46% | – | 5% |
Florida State University/YouGov[136] | October 20–31, 2022 | 1,117 (RV) | – | 51% | 44% | – | – |
University of North Florida[137] | October 17–24, 2022 | 622 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 54% | 43% | <1%[i] | 3% |
Data for Progress (D)[138] | October 19–23, 2022 | 1,251 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 44% | 2%[j] | 2% |
Florida Atlantic University[139] | October 12–16, 2022 | 719 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 42% | 3%[k] | 7% |
RMG Research (R)[140][A] | October 10–13, 2022 | 685 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 45% | – | 5% |
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[141] | September 26–28, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 41% | 2% | 10% |
Siena College[142] | September 18–25, 2022 | 669 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 48% | 41% | 2%[l] | 9% |
Civiqs[143] | September 17–20, 2022 | 617 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 47% | 3%[m] | 2% |
Suffolk University[144] | September 15–18, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 41% | 4%[n] | 9% |
Sachs Media[145] | September 10, 2022 | 600 (LV) | – | 49% | 46% | – | 5% |
Kurt Jetta (D)[146][B] | September 9–10, 2022 | 999 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 40% | – | 12% |
563 (LV) | 50% | 45% | – | 5% | |||
Echelon Insights[147] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 815 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 50% | 41% | – | 9% |
InsiderAdvantage (R)[148] | September 5–6, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 44% | – | 10% |
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)[149] | August 29 – September 4, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[150] | August 24–31, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 47% | – | 4% |
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[151][C] | August 25–30, 2022 | 3,017 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 46% | 45% | – | 9% |
Impact Research (D)[152][D] | August 12–18, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 46% | – | 5% |
Kurt Jetta (D)[153][B] | August 12–14, 2022 | 996 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 39% | – | 14% |
610 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 41% | – | 7% | ||
University of North Florida[154] | August 8–12, 2022 | 1,624 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 48% | 7% | 2% |
Change Research (D)[155][E] | August 2–5, 2022 | 1,031 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 46% | – | 7% |
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[156][C] | July 26–31, 2022 | 2,244 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 45% | 45% | – | 10% |
Kurt Jetta (D)[153][B] | July 9, 2022 | 906 (A) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 38% | – | 16% |
732 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 40% | – | 16% | ||
428 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 50% | 42% | – | 8% | ||
Public Policy Polling (D)[157][F] | May 26–27, 2022 | 655 (V) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
Phillips Academy[158] | May 7–9, 2022 | 543 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 34% | 36% | – | 30% |
Moore Information Group (R)[159] | March 14–19, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 32% | 8%[o] | 12% |
Saint Leo University[160] | February 28 – March 12, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 45% | 27% | – | 28% |
Kurt Jetta (D)[153][B] | March 4, 2022 | 1,098 (A) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 26% | – | 29% |
893 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 27% | – | 28% | ||
446 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 35% | – | 16% | ||
University of North Florida[161] | February 7–20, 2022 | 685 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 34% | – | 20% |
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[162] | February 7–10, 2022 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 42% | – | 9% |
Suffolk University[163] | January 26–29, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 41% | 0% | 10% |
St. Pete Polls[164] | November 18–19, 2021 | 2,896 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 51% | 44% | – | 5% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[165] | November 9, 2021 | 867 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 33% | 3% | 12% |
842 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 36% | 3% | 10% | ||
Saint Leo University[166] | October 17–23, 2021 | 500 (A) | ± 4.5% | 47% | 29% | – | 25% |
VCreek/AMG (R)[167][G] | September 23–27, 2021 | 405 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 42% | 38% | 5% | 15% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[168] | August 20–24, 2021 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 34% | 3% | 11% |
977 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 37% | 3% | 10% | ||
Political Matrix/Listener Group (R)[169] | August 14–18, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 55% | 45% | – | – |
St. Pete Polls[170] | August 16–17, 2021 | 2,068 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
Change Research (D)[171][H] | August 14–17, 2021 | 1,585 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[172] | August 4–10, 2021 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 39% | 1% | 9% |
Political Matrix/Listener Group (R)[173] | June 27, 2021 | 681 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 60% | 40% | – | – |
Marco Rubio vs. Aramis Ayala
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Marco Rubio (R) |
Aramis Ayala (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cherry Communications (R)[174] | April 30 – May 8, 2021 | 602 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 39% | – |
Marco Rubio vs. Alan Grayson
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Marco Rubio (R) |
Alan Grayson (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[165] | November 9, 2021 | 867 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 34% | 4% | 12% |
842 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 37% | 4% | 10% | ||
VCreek/AMG (R)[167][G] | September 23–27, 2021 | 405 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 32% | 10% | 14% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[168] | August 20–24, 2021 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 33% | 4% | 12% |
977 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 36% | 4% | 11% |
Marco Rubio vs. Stephanie Murphy
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Marco Rubio (R) |
Stephanie Murphy (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cherry Communications (R)[174] | April 30 – May 8, 2021 | 602 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 41% | – |
Marco Rubio vs. generic Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Marco Rubio (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mason-Dixon[175] | February 24–28, 2021 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
Data for Progress (D)[176][I] | September 15–22, 2020 | 620 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn |
||||||
Marco Rubio | Val Demings | |||||
1 | Oct. 18, 2022 | Palm Beach State College | Todd McDermott | [177] | P | P |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Marco Rubio (incumbent) | 4,474,847 | 57.68% | +5.70% | |
Democratic | Val Demings | 3,201,522 | 41.27% | −3.04% | |
Libertarian | Dennis Misigoy | 32,177 | 0.41% | −1.71% | |
Independent | Steven B. Grant | 31,816 | 0.41% | N/A | |
Independent | Tuan TQ Nguyen | 17,385 | 0.22% | N/A | |
Write-in | 267 | 0.00% | ±0.00% | ||
Total votes | 7,758,126 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Republican hold |
By county
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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
|
Rubio won 20 of 28 congressional districts.[179]
District | Rubio | Demings | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 72% | 27% | Matt Gaetz |
2nd | 60% | 39% | Neal Dunn |
3rd | 62% | 37% | Kat Cammack |
4th | 59% | 40% | Aaron Bean |
5th | 64% | 35% | John Rutherford |
6th | 66% | 33% | Michael Waltz |
7th | 57% | 42% | Stephanie Murphy (117th Congress) |
Cory Mills (118th Congress) | |||
8th | 63% | 36% | Bill Posey |
9th | 48% | 51% | Darren Soto |
10th | 39% | 60% | Val Demings (117th Congress) |
Maxwell Frost (118th Congress) | |||
11th | 61% | 38% | Daniel Webster |
12th | 68% | 31% | Gus Bilirakis |
13th | 56% | 42% | Anna Paulina Luna |
14th | 45% | 53% | Kathy Castor |
15th | 57% | 41% | Laurel Lee |
16th | 60% | 39% | Vern Buchanan |
17th | 63% | 35% | Greg Steube |
18th | 68% | 31% | Scott Franklin |
19th | 68% | 31% | Byron Donalds |
20th | 28% | 71% | Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick |
21st | 61% | 39% | Brian Mast |
22nd | 46% | 53% | Lois Frankel |
23rd | 48% | 51% | Jared Moskowitz |
24th | 29% | 69% | Frederica Wilson |
25th | 45% | 54% | Debbie Wasserman Schultz |
26th | 70% | 30% | Mario Díaz-Balart |
27th | 57% | 42% | María Elvira Salazar |
28th | 63% | 37% | Carlos A. Giménez |
Demographic subgroup | Demings | Rubio | No answer |
% of voters |
---|---|---|---|---|
Gender | ||||
Men | 37 | 62 | 1 | 49 |
Women | 48 | 51 | 1 | 51 |
Age | ||||
18–24 years old | 57 | 41 | 2 | 7 |
25–29 years old | 58 | 39 | 2 | 4 |
30–39 years old | 55 | 43 | N/A | 13 |
40–49 years old | 41 | 58 | 1 | 12 |
50–64 years old | 38 | 62 | N/A | 32 |
65 and older | 37 | 62 | 1 | 33 |
Race | ||||
White | 35 | 64 | 1 | 64 |
Black | 90 | 9 | N/A | 11 |
Latino | 41 | 56 | 2 | 21 |
Race by gender | ||||
White men | 28 | 71 | N/A | 32 |
White women | 43 | 57 | 2 | 32 |
Black men | 89 | 11 | 1 | 5 |
Black women | 92 | 8 | N/A | 6 |
Latino men | 42 | 55 | 2 | 10 |
Latina women | 41 | 57 | 1 | 11 |
Education | ||||
High school or less | 35 | 63 | 2 | 15 |
Some college education | 42 | 58 | 1 | 25 |
Associate degree | 42 | 57 | 2 | 19 |
Bachelor's degree | 44 | 54 | 1 | 24 |
Advanced degree | 48 | 51 | 1 | 17 |
Party ID | ||||
Democrats | 97 | 3 | N/A | 28 |
Republicans | 3 | 97 | 1 | 42 |
Independents | 48 | 49 | 2 | 30 |
Ideology | ||||
Liberals | 91 | 8 | 1 | 20 |
Moderates | 57 | 41 | 1 | 39 |
Conservatives | 7 | 93 | 2 | 42 |
Marital status | ||||
Married | 40 | 60 | 1 | 59 |
Unmarried | 50 | 48 | 2 | 41 |
Gender by marital status | ||||
Married men | 33 | 66 | 1 | 30 |
Married women | 46 | 53 | 1 | 29 |
Unmarried men | 48 | 51 | 3 | 18 |
Unmarried women | 52 | 47 | 2 | 23 |
First-time midterm election voter | ||||
Yes | 42 | 58 | 4 | 11 |
No | 44 | 55 | N/A | 89 |
Most important issue facing the country | ||||
Crime | 32 | 66 | 2 | 10 |
Inflation | 28 | 72 | 1 | 39 |
Gun policy | 63 | 36 | N/A | 10 |
Immigration | 12 | 88 | N/A | 10 |
Abortion | 81 | 18 | N/A | 24 |
Area type | ||||
Urban | 45 | 54 | 1 | 46 |
Suburban | 42 | 57 | 2 | 44 |
Rural | 31 | 68 | N/A | 10 |
Source: CNN[180] |
Partisan clients
Official campaign websites