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2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

From Wikipedia - Reading time: 63 min

For related races, see 2022 United States Senate elections.
2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
← 2016 November 8, 2022 2028 →
 
Nominee John Fetterman Mehmet Oz
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 2,751,012 2,487,260
Percentage 51.25% 46.33%
Fetterman:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Oz:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data
U.S. senator before election

Pat Toomey
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

John Fetterman
Democratic

Elections in Pennsylvania
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The 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.[1] Democratic lieutenant governor John Fetterman won his first term in office, defeating Republican surgeon Mehmet Oz. Fetterman succeeded Republican incumbent senator Pat Toomey, who did not seek re-election after two terms. This was the only U.S. Senate seat to flip parties in 2022.

In the May 17 primary, Fetterman won the Democratic nomination with 59% of the vote.[2] Oz finished with a 0.1% margin ahead of businessman David McCormick in the Republican primary, triggering an automatic recount. McCormick conceded the nomination on June 3,[3] making Oz the first Muslim candidate to be nominated by either major party for U.S. Senate.[4]

The general election was among the most competitive of the 2022 midterms and characterized as highly contentious. Fetterman framed Oz as an elitist carpetbagger with a radical anti-abortion stance in the wake of Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization overturning Roe v. Wade, while Oz framed Fetterman as a socialist insufficiently committed to fighting crime. Fetterman's health was also a major issue due to him suffering a stroke days before his primary victory.[5] Although Fetterman led most pre-election polls, concerns towards his health and a scrutinized debate performance helped Oz take a narrow lead before the election.[6][7][8]

Despite Oz's lead in final polls, Fetterman won by a 5% margin, helping provide Senate Democrats a net gain of one seat and their first outright majority since 2015. With Fetterman's victory, elected Democrats held both U.S. Senate seats from Pennsylvania for the first time since 1947.[a]

Republican primary

[edit]
Former U.S. Treasury Under Secretary David McCormick narrowly lost the primary, placing second.
Author Kathy Barnette finished third in the primary.
Former U.S. Ambassador to Denmark Carla Sands finished fourth in the primary.
Former Pennsylvania Boxing Commissioner George Bochetto finished seventh in the primary.

Campaign

[edit]

Early campaign

[edit]

In October 2020, incumbent Republican senator Pat Toomey decided not to run for re-election, stating that he wished to return to the private sector.[9]

By October 2021, businessman Jeff Bartos, who had posted strong fund-raising totals, and veteran Sean Parnell, who had the endorsement of former president Donald Trump, emerged as the race's front-runners.[10] However, Parnell's campaign faced a large scandal in November 2021, after his ex-wife, Laurie Snell, testified in court during a custody hearing for the couple's children that Parnell had strangled and spat on her, abused their children, and told her to "go get an abortion".[11] Parnell denied the allegations under oath.[12] Even before these allegations were made, doubts had arisen among Republicans regarding Parnell's fundraising ability, and it became widely assumed that he would suspend his campaign if he did not win custody of his children.[12][failed verification] On November 22, 2021, Snell was given custody of the couple's children and Parnell suspended his campaign.[13]

Entry of Oz and McCormick

[edit]

On November 30, with Parnell out of the race, Mehmet Oz, a celebrity doctor and television personality, announced his candidacy.[14] Oz's campaign entered an immediate controversy over whether Oz himself was a resident of Pennsylvania, as he had lived in Cliffside Park, New Jersey, for most of his life and had only registered to vote in Pennsylvania in October 2020.[14][15] The January 2022 entrance of David McCormick, a businessman, into the race prompted attacks for McCormick's past detraction of Trump and criticism of "America First" economic policies from Oz allies.[16] Super PACs allied to McCormick hit back with a spate of well-funded television advertisements, accusing Oz of being a "Hollywood liberal."[17]

Republican straw polls in January 2022 indicated strong support for Bartos and political commentator Kathy Barnette among party activists as the campaign started to escalate. Bartos won the Republican State Committee Central Caucus's straw poll, placing first with 49 votes, while Barnette finished in second place with 30 votes. McCormick and Sands trailed at third and fourth place; and Oz and former Boxing Commissioner George Bochetto performed poorly, each receiving only one vote.[18][19] Despite this, political commentators largely considered Oz and McCormick to be the frontrunners, with the other candidates trailing them.[20]

The McCormick campaign targeted Oz's ties to Turkey and called on him to renounce his Turkish citizenship, accusing Oz of harboring dual loyalties.[21] Oz later stated that if he were elected to the Senate, he would renounce his Turkish citizenship.[22] Former president Trump endorsed Oz on April 10, citing the popularity of his television show and perceived appeal to female voters.[23] Oz frequently highlighted this endorsement, it becoming one of his major talking points during the campaign.[20]

Late campaign

[edit]

Oz had been ahead of the other candidates in the polls since the start of his campaign, with McCormick soon rising quickly in the polls to challenge Oz, with both men polling the low 20s. Barnette had also begun to rise in the polls at this point after a string of attention-getting debate performances and an ad spend in support of her by the Club for Growth. Her late surge prompted a change in tactics from the two frontrunners, who had largely ignored her as irrelevant until then.[24] Pro-Oz Super PAC American Leadership Action launched an ad campaign accusing Barnette of supporting Black Lives Matter, while McCormick stated that Barnette was unelectable, citing her heavy loss in a U.S. House race the previous election cycle.[24] Oz himself also accused Barnette of Islamophobia, pointing to a 2015 tweet in which she stated, "Pedophilia is a Cornerstone of Islam."[25]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Disqualified

[edit]
  • John Debellis, small business owner[37]
  • John Eichenberg, truck driver[38]
  • Robert Jeffries, perennial candidate[39]
  • Ron Johnson, former Fredonia borough councilor[40][41] (ran as the Constitution nominee)
  • Richard Mulholland, HVAC technician[42]
  • Max Richardson[43]
  • Martin Rosenfeld, Elk County deputy sheriff and treasurer of the Elk County Republican Party[44]
  • David Xu, U.S. Army veteran, college professor and IT business owner[45]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Debates and forums

[edit]
2022 Pennsylvania Senate election Republican primary debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Kathy Barnette George Bochetto Jeff Bartos Sean Gale David McCormick Mehmet Oz Carla Sands Everett Stern
1 Feb. 22, 2022 BroadandLiberty.com
Pennsylvania Chamber of Business & Industry 		Becky Corbin Video P P P N A A A P
2 Apr. 25, 2022 Nexstar/WHTM-TV Dennis Owens
Lisa Sylvester 		Video P N P N P P P W
3 May 4, 2022 Newsmax TV Greta Van Susteren
Rick Dayton 		P N P N P P P W

Endorsements

[edit]
Kathy Barnette
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Organizations
Newspapers and other media
Individuals
Jeff Bartos
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
State senators
State representatives
Organizations
Individuals
George Bochetto
Judges
Labor unions
Robert Jeffries
Individuals
David McCormick
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. Governors
U.S. Representatives
Local officials
Labor unions
Individuals
Mehmet Oz
U.S. Presidents
Executive branch officials
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
Individuals
Carla Sands
Executive branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Sean Parnell (withdrawn)
U.S. Presidents
  • Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021) (switched endorsement to Oz after Parnell withdrew)[95]
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Craig Snyder (withdrawn)
Executive branch officials
U.S. Representatives
Declined to endorse
Organizations
Newspapers and other media

Polling

[edit]
Graphical summary
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Kathy
Barnette 		Jeff
Bartos 		David
McCormick 		Mehmet
Oz 		Carla
Sands 		Other[b] Margin
Real Clear Politics May 3–16, 2022 May 17, 2022 24.2% 5.4% 19.6% 26.8% 6.0% 18.0% Oz +2.6
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Kathy
Barnette 		Jeff
Bartos 		David
McCormick 		Mehmet
Oz 		Sean
Parnell 		Carla
Sands 		Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) May 14–16, 2022 1,195 (LV) ± 2.9% 27% 7% 22% 29% – 7% 4%[d] 6%
Emerson College May 14–15, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 24% 5% 21% 28% – 6% 1%[e] 15%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) May 12–15, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 27% 2% 11% 28% – 3% 3%[f] 26%
Osage Research (R)[A] May 12–13, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 24% 6% 25% 24% – 7% 1%[g] 13%
InsiderAdvantage (R) May 7–9, 2022 750 (LV) ± 3.6% 21% 5% 19% 23% – 5% 3%[h] 26%
The Trafalgar Group (R) May 6–8, 2022 1,080 (LV) ± 3.0% 23% 7% 22% 25% – 7% 2%[h] 15%
Fox News May 3–7, 2022 1,001 (LV) ± 3.0% 19% 7% 20% 22% – 8% 4%[i] 18%
Franklin & Marshall College April 20 – May 1, 2022 325 (RV) ± 6.9% 12% 2% 16% 18% – 5% 6%[j] 39%
The Trafalgar Group (R) April 11–13, 2022 1,074 (LV) ± 3.0% 18% 8% 20% 23% – 11% 3%[k] 17%
Franklin & Marshall College March 30 – April 10, 2022 317 (RV) ± 6.6% 7% 6% 15% 16% – 5% 8%[l] 43%
Eagle Consulting Group (R) April 7–9, 2022 502 (LV) ± 4.4% 9% 6% 18% 11% – 9% 2%[m] 45%
Emerson College April 3–4, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 10% 9% 18% 17% – 8% 6%[n] 33%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[A] March 29 – April 3, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 13% 8% 22% 16% – 11% 1%[g] –
Emerson College March 26–28, 2022 372 (LV) ± 5.0% 6% 5% 14% 14% – 6% 3%[o] 51%
Basswood Research (R)[B] March 19–21, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 11% 5% 22% 25% – 13% 1%[g] 23%
Fox News March 2–6, 2022 960 (LV) ± 3.0% 9% 9% 24% 15% – 6% 3%[p] 31%
Franklin & Marshall College February 21–27, 2022 178 (LV) ± 10.1% 6% 4% 13% 10% – 11% 3% 53%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[A] ~February 23, 2022 – (LV) – 9% 5% 24% 18% – 11% 1%[g] –
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[C] February 16–18, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% – – 24% 18% – – 31% 27%
Osage Research (R)[A] February 13–16, 2022 825 (LV) ± 4.0% 7% 6% 24% 21% – 11% 3% 28%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[A] ~February 9, 2022 – (LV) – 9% 5% 17% 23% – 17% 1%[g] –
The Trafalgar Group (R) February 1–4, 2022 1,070 (LV) ± 3.0% 9% 7% 16% 27% – 15% 6%[q] 22%
Osage Research (R)[A] January 31 – February 2, 2022 – (LV) – – – 19% 29% – – – –
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[A] ~January 6, 2022 – (LV) – 9% 8% 13% 31% – 12% – –
The Trafalgar Group (R) December 13–16, 2021 1,062 (LV) ± 3.0% 8% 3% – 19% – 7% 12%[r] 51%
Echelon Insights (R) December 1–3, 2021 200 (LV) ± 6.9% 7% 4% – 11% – 5% 10%[s] 63%
November 22, 2021 Parnell withdraws from the race
Civiqs (D) October 31 – November 5, 2021 799 (LV) ± 3.5% 7% 6% – – 31% 8% 2%[t] 54%
Franklin & Marshall College October 18–24, 2021 184 (RV) ± 8.8% 3% 2% – – 11% 2% 3%[u] 78%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[D] October 11–14, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – 7% – – 27% 4% 5% 57%
Franklin & Marshall College August 9–15, 2021 154 (RV) ± 10.9% 6% 4% – – 14% 1% 10%[v] 66%

Results

[edit]

Following the first night of results, it became clear that Oz and McCormick were the top two vote-getters in the election; however, the margin between them was too close to declare a victor.[103] A mandatory recount then began.[104][103] Former president Trump encouraged Oz to declare victory on election night, stating that Oz would only be defeated as a result of election fraud; these claims were noted by Politico as echoing Trump's baseless claims of election fraud in the 2020 presidential election.[105] With McCormick having done better with mail-in ballots, Oz opposed counting ballots which were received by election offices before election day but were missing dates on the envelopes.[106] A state court later required counties to count undated ballots as valid.[107]

On June 3, McCormick conceded to Oz, saying he could not make up the deficit in the recount.[108]

Results by county:
  Oz
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  McCormick
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Barnette
  •   30–40%
Republican primary results[104]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mehmet Oz 420,168 31.21%
Republican David McCormick 419,218 31.14%
Republican Kathy Barnette 331,903 24.66%
Republican Carla Sands 73,360 5.45%
Republican Jeff Bartos 66,684 4.95%
Republican Sean Gale 20,266 1.51%
Republican George Bochetto 14,492 1.08%
Total votes 1,346,091 100.0%

Democratic primary

[edit]
U.S. Representative Conor Lamb finished second in the primary.
State representative Malcolm Kenyatta finished third in the primary.
Jenkintown borough councilor Alexandra Khalil finished fourth in the primary.

Campaign

[edit]

The first two major Democratic candidates were Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania John Fetterman and state representative Malcolm Kenyatta.[109] Both Fetterman and Kenyatta were considered to be staunchly progressive Democrats, but the two men were felt to appeal to different demographics.[109] By July 2021, Fetterman was considered the frontrunner as a result of his high name recognition and strong fundraising.[110] U.S. Representative Conor Lamb, a political moderate, entered the race on August 6, 2021.[111][112]

As the campaign progressed, Lamb and Fetterman became the two most prominent candidates, with Kenyatta and Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh also receiving media attention. Fetterman had maintained his frontrunner status as of December, and the other three contenders were viewed as mainly competing with each other in order to claim the anti-Fetterman mantle.[113] On February 4, 2022, Arkoosh withdrew from the race, her campaign having previously suffered from poor poll results and low support from party activists, leaving Kenyatta as the only major candidate from the Philadelphia region.[114] Both Kenyatta and Lamb were considered to have a good chance at picking up voters who had previously supported Arkoosh, Lamb for ideological reasons and Kenyatta for geographical ones.[114]

In addition to Fetterman, Kenyatta, and Lamb, two minor candidates also made the Democratic primary ballot, namely Kevin Baumlin, a hospital physician, and Alexandra Khalil, a municipal official. Baumlin withdrew from the race on March 31, leaving only Khalil in addition to the three major candidates.[115]

Lamb received the assistance of the “Penn Progress” Super PAC,[116][117] which spent the entirety of its funds in support of Lamb's campaign.[118] Lamb worked closely with the Super PAC, and participated in donor calls it arranged.[119][120] The Penn Progress Super PAC bankrolled TV ads which sought to portray Fetterman as a "self-described democratic socialist." Within a day of airing, PolitiFact and Factcheck.org called the attack ad false,[121] The Philadelphia Inquirer commented that Fetterman had never actually described himself that way,[122] the ABC affiliate in Philadelphia stopped broadcasting the ad,[123] and Senator Elizabeth Warren called on Lamb to disavow it.[124]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Disqualified

[edit]
  • Kael Dougherty, data operations associate[131]
  • Larry Johnson, attorney[132]
  • Alan Shank, retail worker[133]
  • Walter Sluzynsky, postal worker[134]
  • Lew Tapera, retail worker[135]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Debates

[edit]
2022 Pennsylvania Senate election Democratic primary debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
John Fetterman Malcolm Kenyatta Conor Lamb
1 Apr. 3, 2022 Muhlenberg College Becky Corbin
Jenny DeHuff
Ari Mittleman 		Video A[w] P P
2 Apr. 21, 2022 Nexstar/WHTM-TV Dennis Owens
Lisa Sylvester 		Video P P P

Endorsements

[edit]
Val Arkoosh (withdrawn)
State senators
State representatives
Organizations
John Fetterman
Local officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers and other media
Individuals
Malcolm Kenyatta
U.S. Representatives
State representatives
Local officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Political parties
Individuals
Conor Lamb
U.S. Representatives
State senators
State representatives
Local officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers and other media
Individuals
Declined to endorse
Statewide officials
Organizations

Polling

[edit]
Graphical summary
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		John
Fetterman 		Malcolm
Kenyatta 		Conor
Lamb 		Other
[b] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics March 26 – May 1, 2022 May 5, 2022 43.0% 6.0% 12.0% 39.0% Fetterman +31.0
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Val
Arkoosh 		John
Fetterman 		Malcolm
Kenyatta 		Conor
Lamb 		Sharif
Street 		Other Undecided
Franklin & Marshall College April 20 – May 1, 2022 357 (RV) ± 6.6% – 53% 4% 14% – 6%[y] 22%
Franklin & Marshall College March 30 – April 10, 2022 356 (RV) ± 6.2% – 41% 4% 17% – 9%[z] 26%
GBAO (D)[E] April 5–7, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% – 44% 17% 19% – 4%[aa] 15%
Emerson College March 26–28, 2022 471 (LV) ± 4.5% – 33% 8% 10% – 12%[ab] 37%
Franklin & Marshall College February 21–27, 2022 185 (LV) ± 9.9% – 28% 2% 15% – 7% 50%
Impact Research (D)[F] Early February 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 3% 47% 7% 17% 5% 8% 13%
February 4, 2022 Arkoosh withdraws from the race
Data for Progress (D)[E] January 26–31, 2022 730 (LV) ± 4.0% 4% 46% 12% 16% – – 22%
January 19, 2022 Street withdraws from the race
GQR Research (D)[G] December 14–16, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 6% 44% 20% 15% – 2% 12%
GBAO (D)[E] November 16–23, 2021 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 5% 42% 15% 16% – – 21%
Civiqs (D) October 31 – November 5, 2021 929 (LV) ± 3.2% 2% 52% 5% 12% 2% 6% 21%
Franklin & Marshall College October 18–24, 2021 208 (RV) ± 8.2% 4% 34% 5% 12% 5% 3% 37%
Franklin & Marshall College August 9–15, 2021 175 (RV) ± 10.2% 6% 33% 5% 12% 0% 3% 42%
Data for Progress (D)[E] May 7–14, 2021 302 (LV) ± 6.0% 5% 40% 9% 21% 2% 8%[ac] 14%

Results

[edit]

Fetterman won the Democratic primary by a landslide, winning all 67 counties in Pennsylvania, with Lamb in second place. Lamb's loss was attributed by Vanity Fair to numerous reasons, such as his not being known to voters in the Delaware Valley region of eastern Pennsylvania, where the majority of Democratic voters were located, while in contrast Fetterman's position as lieutenant governor gave him statewide name recognition. In addition, the far more contested Republican primary had consumed media attention that Lamb might have otherwise used to gain more name recognition.[198] Fetterman was also widely considered to have run an effective populist campaign, with The Atlantic noting that his campaign focused on the issues of "workers, wages and weed".[199]

Results by county
  Fetterman
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Democratic primary results[104]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Fetterman 753,557 58.65%
Democratic Conor Lamb 337,498 26.27%
Democratic Malcolm Kenyatta 139,393 10.85%
Democratic Alexandria Khalil 54,460 4.24%
Total votes 1,284,908 100.0%

Libertarian convention

[edit]
Libertarian nominee Erik Gerhardt

The Libertarian Party nominee qualified for the general election ballot on August 1.[200][201]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]
  • Erik Gerhardt, carpenter, small business owner, and candidate for president in 2020[202][203]

Withdrew

[edit]

Green convention

[edit]

The Green Party nominee qualified for the general election ballot on August 1.[200][201]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Independents and other parties

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Qualified for ballot

[edit]

Declared write-in

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

Fetterman's campaign framed Oz as a wealthy outsider who lived outside of Pennsylvania before 2020, including by airing ads that note his past residency in New Jersey. Fetterman also flew banners and published social media posts described by The Hill and The Washington Post as "trolling" his opponent. In one post, Fetterman started a petition to get Oz inducted to the New Jersey Hall of Fame.[217] In response to the carpetbagging criticisms, Oz said during the primary debate that Pennsylvanians "care much more about what I stand for than where I'm from".[218]

Oz's campaign criticized Fetterman for being inactive since he suffered a stroke in May and made an issue of Fetterman's health.[219][220][221] In September, Oz published his medical records, which prompted Fetterman to state he was medically cleared to serve in the Senate.[222][223][224] Oz's campaign also framed Fetterman as a socialist, highlighting his endorsement of Bernie Sanders in 2016. Fetterman countered that he has differences in policy proposals with Sanders in issues such as fracking.[225][226]

Fetterman's refusal to debate Oz until late October was criticized by Oz's campaign.[227][228] Fetterman attributed the delay in debating to lingering issues from his stroke and his team criticized debate concessions from Oz's team for allegedly mocking Fetterman's stroke recovery.[229][230] A single debate was held on October 25.[229]

Crudités video

[edit]

On August 15, 2022, an April 2022 campaign video of Oz shopping in a Redner's Warehouse supermarket went viral.[231] In the video, Oz says he is shopping for produce to make crudités and attributes the high prices to Democratic president Joe Biden.

The video was widely ridiculed on social media and was the subject of several news articles. Most observers focused on Oz's usage of the French term "crudités", his choice of items, and several factual errors; Fetterman himself replied saying that Pennsylvanians refer to crudités as "veggie trays".[232][233] Oz's choice of a raw head of broccoli, asparagus, and multiple pounds of carrots, with guacamole and salsa, was criticized as wrong by some.[234] Others expressed confusion at Oz's statement that the $20 cost of the vegetables and dips "doesn't even include the tequila", as tequila is not a traditional accompaniment to crudités and liquor is not sold in grocery stores in Pennsylvania.[232] Many observers noted Oz quoted the wrong price tag for the salsa and falsely suggested the broccoli was $2 per head when it was $2 per pound.[235]

The number of internet searches for crudités dramatically increased in the aftermath of the video's circulation. Oz appearing to confuse the Redner's and Wegmans supermarket chains led to the name "Wegner's" trending on Twitter and a parody Twitter account called "Wegner's Groceries" gaining popularity.[232] The Fetterman campaign sought to capitalize on the video by introducing merchandise referencing it.[236] When asked if the video made him unrelatable to voters, Oz emphasized he helped others throughout his career and would continue to help if elected.[237]

Debate

[edit]

In the October 25 debate, a special arrangement of transcription monitors was put in place to assist Fetterman with his auditory processing issue. According to the Associated Press, Fetterman "struggled at times to explain his positions and often spoke haltingly", with Fetterman facing issues completing sentences and frequently pausing after questions were asked. Oz was described as being "more at home on the debate stage" and presented himself as a moderate Republican, and did not reference Fetterman's health condition. Independent health experts said that Fetterman was recovering "remarkably well".[238] Fetterman particularly struggled answering a question regarding his previous opposition to fracking by stating he always supported fracking, while Oz answered a question on abortion by saying that the federal government should have no role in states' abortion decisions, instead leaving abortion decisions to "women, doctors, [and] local political leaders".[239][240][241][242]

According to Politico and The Guardian, Fetterman "struggled" during the debate, and some Democrats questioned why he chose to debate at all.[243][244] After the debate, the Fetterman campaign claimed that the closed captioning system provided by Nexstar Media Group gave incorrect and slow captions. Nexstar denied the claims, arguing the captioning "worked as expected" and that the Fetterman team had had the opportunity for two rehearsals with the equipment and opted to only do one.[245]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[246] Tossup October 4, 2022
Inside Elections[247] Tossup August 25, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[248] Lean R November 7, 2022
Politico[249] Tossup June 8, 2022
RCP[250] Tossup August 14, 2022
Fox News[251] Tossup October 25, 2022
DDHQ[252] Tossup October 15, 2022
538[253] Tossup November 7, 2022
The Economist[254] Tossup November 1, 2022

Debates

[edit]
2022 United States Senate general election in Pennsylvania debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Mehmet Oz John Fetterman
1 Oct. 25, 2022 Nexstar/WHTM-TV Dennis Owens
Lisa Sylvester 		YouTube P P

Endorsements

[edit]
Mehmet Oz (R)
U.S. Presidents
Executive branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
State senators
State representatives
Local officials
Party officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers and other media
Individuals
John Fetterman (D)
U.S. Presidents
Executive Branch officials
Statewide officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State senators
State representatives
Local officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers
Individuals

Polling

[edit]
Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Mehmet
Oz (R) 		John
Fetterman (D) 		Other
[b] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics October 24 – November 3, 2022 November 7, 2022 47.2% 46.8% 6.0% Oz +0.4%
FiveThirtyEight December 3, 2021 – November 7, 2022 November 7, 2022 47.4% 46.9% 5.7% Oz +0.5%
270towin November 3–4, 2022 November 4, 2022 46.8% 46.5% 6.7% Oz +0.3%
Average 47.1% 46.7% 6.2% Oz +0.4%
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Mehmet
Oz (R) 		John
Fetterman (D) 		Other Undecided
Research Co. November 4–6, 2022 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 46% 47% 2%[ad] 5%
Targoz Market Research November 2–6, 2022 631 (LV) ± 3.8% 51% 46% 3%[ae] –
InsiderAdvantage (R) November 3, 2022 750 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 46% 4%[af] 3%
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 1–3, 2022 1,097 (LV) ± 2.9% 48% 46% 3% 4%
Remington Research Group (R) November 1–2, 2022 1,180 (LV) ± 2.8% 47% 44% 4%[ag] 5%
Marist College October 31 – November 2, 2022 1,152 (RV) ± 3.8% 44% 50% 1%[ah] 5%
1,021 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 51% 1%[ah] 4%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) October 28 – November 1, 2022 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 47% 2%[ai] 4%
Emerson College October 28–31, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 46% 3%[aj] 4%
48% 47% 4%[ak] –
Suffolk University October 27–30, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 47% 1%[al] 7%
Fox News October 26–30, 2022 1,005 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 45% 6%[am] 6%
Big Data Poll (R) October 27–28, 2022 1,005 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 46% 3% 2%
co/efficient (R) October 26–28, 2022 1,716 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 45% 4%[an] 2%
Muhlenberg College October 24–28, 2022 460 (LV) ± 6.0% 47% 47% 3%[ao] 2%
Wick Insights (R) October 26–27, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.2% 48% 46% 4%[an] 3%
InsiderAdvantage (R) October 26, 2022 750 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 45% 4%[ap] 4%
Siena Research/NYT October 24–26, 2022 620 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 49% <1%[aq] 6%
YouGov/CBS News October 21–24, 2022 1,084 (LV) ± 4.1% 49% 51% 1%[ar] –
Franklin & Marshall College October 14–23, 2022 620 (RV) ± 5.3% 40% 45% 4%[as] 11%
384 (LV) ± 6.8% 45% 49% – –
Rasmussen Reports (R) October 19–20, 2022 972 (LV) ± 3.0% 43% 45% 6%[at] 6%
Echelon Insights October 18–20, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.8% 43% 46% 4%[au] 7%
InsiderAdvantage (R) October 19, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 46% 46% 3%[av] 5%
CNN/SSRS October 13–17, 2022 901 (RV) ± 4.1% 41% 52% 6%[aw] –
703 (LV) ± 4.6% 45% 51% 3%[ax] –
Wick Insights (R) October 8–14, 2022 1,013 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 45% 3%[ay] 3%
Patriot Polling (R) October 10–12, 2022 857 (RV) – 48% 46% – 7%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) October 4–12, 2022 1,400 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 48% 2%[az] 4%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[H] October 8–11, 2022 1,078 (LV) ± 2.9% 45% 47% 4%[ba] 4%
Center Street PAC (D)[I] September 29–30, 2022 971 (RV) ± 3.5% 34% 50% – 16%
568 (LV) 36% 55% – 9%
Suffolk University September 27–30, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 40% 46% 3%[bb] 11%
Emerson College September 23–26, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 43% 45% 5%[bc] 8%
Fox News September 22–26, 2022 1,008 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 45% 7%[bd] 7%
827 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 48% 3%[be] 5%
Franklin & Marshall College September 19–25, 2022 517 (RV) ± 5.6% 42% 45% – 13%
InsiderAdvantage (R) September 23–24, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 42% 45% 6%[bf] 8%
Marist College September 19–22, 2022 1,242 (RV) ± 3.5% 41% 51% <1%[bg] 7%
1,043 (LV) ± 3.8% 44% 51% – 4%
The Phillips Academy Poll September 16–19, 2022 759 (RV) ± 3.6% 45% 47% – 9%
Muhlenberg College September 13–16, 2022 420 (LV) ± 6.0% 44% 49% 5%[bh] 2%
The Trafalgar Group (R) September 13–15, 2022 1,078 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 48% 4%[bi] 2%
YouGov/CBS News September 6–12, 2022 1,194 (RV) ± 3.8% 47% 52% – 1%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022 828 (RV) ± 4.1% 36% 57% – 7%
RABA Research August 31 – September 3, 2022 679 (LV) ± 3.8% 40% 49% 3%[ay] 8%
Kurt Jetta (D)[I] August 31 – September 1, 2022 1,012 (RV) ± 3.5% 33% 51% – 15%
616 (LV) 36% 55% – 9%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) August 22–29, 2022 718 (LV) ± 3.7% 44% 49% 2% 5%
Emerson College August 22–23, 2022 1,034 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 48% 3% 5%
Franklin & Marshall College August 15–21, 2022 522 (RV) ± 5.3% 36% 45% 9%[bj] 10%
The Trafalgar Group (R) August 15–18, 2022 1,096 (LV) ± 2.9% 44% 48% 4%[bk] 5%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) August 7–10, 2022 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 36% 52% – 11%
Kurt Jetta (D)[I] July 29 – August 1, 2022 1,206 (A) ± 2.8% 30% 47% – 23%
997 (RV) ± 3.1% 32% 48% – 20%
516 (LV) ± 4.3% 38% 52% – 10%
Fox News July 22–26, 2022 908 (RV) ± 3.0% 36% 47% 5%[bl] 11%
PEM Management Corporation (R)[J] July 22–24, 2022 300 (LV) ± 5.7% 38% 44% 4% 15%
Blueprint Polling (D) July 19–21, 2022 712 (LV) ± 3.7% 40% 49% – 12%
Beacon Research (D)[K] July 5–20, 2022 1,012 (RV) ± 3.1% 34% 47% 1% 13%
609 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 50% 2% 9%
Global Strategy Group (D)[L] July 14–19, 2022 1,200 (LV) ± 2.9% 40% 51% – 9%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) June 12–19, 2022 1,382 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 50% – 6%
Cygnal (R) June 16–17, 2022 535 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% 48% – 8%
Suffolk University June 10–13, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 37% 46% 3%[bm] 13%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) ~May 10, 2022 – (LV) – 33% 51% – 16%
Data for Progress (D)[E] December 3–5, 2021 581 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 44% – 13%
Hypothetical polling
Jeff Bartos vs. John Fetterman
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Jeff
Bartos (R) 		John
Fetterman (D) 		Undecided
Garin-Hart-Yang (D)[M] May 10–19, 2021 450 (LV) ± 4.7% 36% 45% 19%
Data for Progress (D)[E] May 7–14, 2021 310 (LV) ± 5.6% 38% 48% 14%
Jeff Bartos vs. Conor Lamb
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Jeff
Bartos (R) 		Conor
Lamb (D) 		Undecided
Data for Progress (D)[E] May 7–14, 2021 341 (LV) ± 5.3% 42% 43% 15%
Sean Parnell vs. John Fetterman
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Sean
Parnell (R) 		John
Fetterman (D) 		Undecided
Garin-Hart-Yang (D)[M] May 10–19, 2021 450 (LV) ± 4.7% 42% 42% 16%
Data for Progress (D)[E] May 7–14, 2021 310 (LV) ± 5.6% 40% 48% 12%
Sean Parnell vs. Conor Lamb
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Sean
Parnell (R) 		Conor
Lamb (D) 		Undecided
Data for Progress (D)[E] May 7–14, 2021 341 (LV) ± 5.3% 44% 42% 14%

Results

[edit]

Fetterman won the election by 4.9 percentage points, and was declared the winner in the early hours of November 9. The early victory came as a shock to many pundits, as the race was expected to take several days to project a winner;[373] the race was one of the first signs of the coming Democratic overperformance relative to the final polls in the midterms writ large.[citation needed] Oz underperformed former Republican president Donald Trump's performance in the 2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania by 3.7 percentage points, while overperforming Republican nominee Doug Mastriano in the concurrent gubernatorial race by 10 percentage points. As a result of this election, Democrats would be elected to both U.S. Senate seats from Pennsylvania for the first time since 1947, and from this seat since 1962.[bn] According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Fetterman won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Oz's defeat.[374]

2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania[375]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic John Fetterman 2,751,012 51.25% +3.91%
Republican Mehmet Oz 2,487,260 46.33% −2.44%
Libertarian Erik Gerhardt 72,887 1.36% −2.53%
Green Richard L. Weiss 30,434 0.57% N/A
Keystone Dan Wassmer 26,428 0.49% N/A
Total votes 5,368,021 100.0% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

By county

[edit]
By county
County[376] John Fetterman
Democratic 		Mehmet Oz
Republican 		Erik Gerhardt
Libertarian 		Richard Weiss
Green 		Dan Wassmer
Keystone 		Margin Total
votes
# % # % # % # % # % # %
Adams 16,096 34.68 29,039 62.56 704 1.52 289 0.62 291 0.63 -12,943 -27.88 46,419
Allegheny 363,873 63.42 200,632 34.97 5,190 0.90 2,343 0.41 1,671 0.29 163,241 28.45 573,709
Armstrong 8,065 28.38 19,575 68.89 465 1.64 131 0.46 177 0.62 -11,510 -40.51 28,413
Beaver 32,692 44.51 38,772 52.79 1,143 1.56 410 0.56 426 0.58 -6,080 -8.28 73,443
Bedford 3,796 17.07 17,954 80.72 261 1.17 101 0.45 129 0.58 -14,158 -63.66 22,241
Berks 71,349 46.08 78,019 50.39 3,315 2.14 1,149 0.74 992 0.64 -6,670 -4.31 154,824
Blair 14,763 29.40 34,214 68.13 627 1.25 295 0.59 321 0.64 -19,451 -38.73 50,220
Bradford 6,632 28.24 16,033 68.28 450 1.92 162 0.69 204 0.87 -9,401 -40.04 23,481
Bucks 164,536 52.35 141,340 44.97 4,633 1.47 2,145 0.68 1,657 0.53 23,196 7.38 314,311
Butler 33,921 36.34 57,168 61.25 1,346 1.44 414 0.44 486 0.52 -23,247 -24.91 93,335
Cambria 18,849 33.45 35,847 63.62 868 1.54 365 0.65 419 0.74 -16,998 -30.17 56,348
Cameron 547 29.00 1,247 66.12 46 2.44 19 1.01 27 1.43 -700 -37.12 1,886
Carbon 9,682 36.91 15,659 59.69 559 2.13 160 0.61 172 0.66 -5,977 -22.78 26,232
Centre 32,597 52.52 27,902 44.96 834 1.34 372 0.60 356 0.57 4,695 7.56 62,061
Chester 147,559 57.20 104,020 40.32 3,586 1.39 1,579 0.61 1,219 0.47 43,539 16.88 257,963
Clarion 4,327 28.15 10,620 69.09 238 1.55 91 0.59 95 0.62 -6,293 -40.94 15,371
Clearfield 8,533 27.18 21,948 69.90 489 1.56 193 0.61 236 0.75 -13,415 -42.72 31,399
Clinton 4,750 33.89 8,791 62.72 219 1.56 96 0.68 161 1.15 -4,041 -28.83 14,017
Columbia 9,023 36.46 14,830 59.93 518 2.09 176 0.71 198 0.80 -5,807 -23.47 24,745
Crawford 11,081 33.55 20,992 63.55 575 1.74 187 0.57 198 0.60 -9,911 -30.00 33,033
Cumberland 53,278 45.96 59,663 51.47 1,783 1.54 589 0.51 614 0.53 -6,385 -5.51 115,927
Dauphin 61,599 53.82 50,141 43.81 1,503 1.31 593 0.52 610 0.53 11,458 10.01 114,446
Delaware 157,599 62.87 87,322 34.84 3,454 1.38 1,483 0.59 809 0.32 70,277 28.04 250,667
Elk 4,066 29.86 9,128 67.02 225 1.65 85 0.62 115 0.84 -5,062 -37.17 13,619
Erie 56,404 53.35 46,507 43.98 1,554 1.47 702 0.66 567 0.54 9,897 9.36 105,734
Fayette 17,731 37.87 28,234 60.30 438 0.94 196 0.42 225 0.48 -10,503 -22.43 46,824
Forest 694 31.81 1,434 65.72 27 1.24 17 0.78 10 0.46 -740 -33.91 2,182
Franklin 18,718 28.70 44,819 68.72 845 1.30 420 0.64 418 0.64 -26,101 -40.02 65,220
Fulton 953 15.26 5,171 82.79 74 1.18 18 0.29 30 0.48 -4,218 -67.53 6,246
Greene 4,394 33.57 8,348 63.77 160 1.22 105 0.80 84 0.64 -3,954 -30.20 13,091
Huntingdon 4,665 25.54 13,035 71.37 286 1.57 135 0.74 143 0.78 -8,370 -45.83 18,264
Indiana 11,218 34.25 20,769 63.41 398 1.22 179 0.55 191 0.58 -9,551 -29.16 32,755
Jefferson 4,135 23.25 13,139 73.87 293 1.65 98 0.55 121 0.68 -9,004 -50.62 17,786
Juniata 2,111 21.70 7,265 74.68 176 1.81 55 0.57 121 1.24 -5,154 -52.98 9,728
Lackawanna 50,489 56.77 36,534 41.08 1,020 1.15 441 0.50 459 0.52 13,955 15.69 88,943
Lancaster 94,632 42.14 124,798 55.58 3,272 1.46 1,147 0.51 699 0.31 -30,166 -13.43 224,548
Lawrence 13,758 38.00 21,531 59.47 511 1.41 189 0.52 217 0.60 -7,773 -21.47 36,206
Lebanon 19,695 34.86 35,023 62.00 1,107 1.96 318 0.56 348 0.62 -15,328 -27.13 56,491
Lehigh 73,096 53.63 59,219 43.45 2,269 1.66 958 0.70 759 0.56 13,877 10.18 136,301
Luzerne 51,504 44.28 61,978 53.28 1,662 1.43 663 0.57 516 0.44 -10,474 -9.00 116,323
Lycoming 13,573 29.36 31,171 67.42 882 1.91 305 0.66 302 0.65 -17,598 -38.06 46,233
McKean 4,135 28.22 10,076 68.77 214 1.46 95 0.65 131 0.89 -5,941 -40.55 14,651
Mercer 17,080 37.66 27,049 59.64 673 1.48 279 0.62 271 0.60 -9,969 -21.98 45,352
Mifflin 3,965 23.62 12,263 73.06 278 1.66 114 0.68 165 0.98 -8,298 -49.44 16,785
Monroe 30,251 51.51 26,746 45.54 989 1.68 450 0.77 294 0.50 3,505 5.97 58,730
Montgomery 260,207 63.01 143,077 34.65 5,416 1.31 2,502 0.61 1,752 0.42 117,130 28.36 412,954
Montour 3,213 41.02 4,328 55.25 154 1.97 57 0.73 81 1.03 -1,115 -14.23 7,833
Northampton 66,565 51.21 59,860 46.05 1,949 1.50 919 0.71 694 0.53 6,705 5.16 129,987
Northumberland 10,812 32.87 20,992 63.82 583 1.77 241 0.73 267 0.81 -10,180 -30.95 32,895
Perry 5,646 27.91 13,956 68.98 392 1.94 111 0.55 126 0.62 -8,310 -41.08 20,231
Philadelphia 412,841 82.71 78,408 15.71 3,718 0.74 2,532 0.51 1,652 0.33 334,433 67.00 499,151
Pike 9,821 38.98 14,792 58.71 293 1.16 148 0.59 142 0.56 -4,971 -19.73 25,196
Potter 1,415 19.91 5,486 77.18 120 1.69 40 0.56 47 0.66 -4,071 -57.27 7,108
Schuylkill 17,954 32.40 35,293 63.69 1,214 2.19 457 0.82 495 0.89 -17,339 -31.29 55,413
Snyder 4,220 27.52 10,657 69.49 239 1.56 89 0.58 131 0.85 -6,437 -41.97 15,336
Somerset 7,660 23.55 23,964 73.67 523 1.61 190 0.58 191 0.59 -16,304 -50.12 32,528
Sullivan 869 28.81 2,023 67.08 65 2.16 31 1.03 28 0.93 -1,154 -38.26 3,016
Susquehanna 5,245 30.30 11,520 66.55 269 1.55 128 0.74 149 0.86 -6,275 -36.25 17,311
Tioga 4,103 24.67 11,988 72.08 281 1.69 136 0.82 124 0.75 -7,885 -47.41 16,632
Union 6,249 38.83 9,401 58.41 210 1.30 127 0.79 107 0.66 -3,152 -19.58 16,094
Venango 6,777 32.50 13,406 64.29 385 1.85 126 0.60 160 0.77 -6,629 -31.79 20,854
Warren 5,420 33.68 10,175 63.23 243 1.51 118 0.73 136 0.85 -4,755 -29.55 16,092
Washington 39,684 42.29 52,337 55.77 1,083 1.15 322 0.34 410 0.44 -12,653 -13.48 93,836
Wayne 7,669 33.77 14,425 63.51 344 1.51 140 0.62 134 0.59 -6,756 -29.75 22,712
Westmoreland 66,240 39.43 98,238 58.47 2,057 1.22 678 0.40 796 0.47 -31,998 -19.04 168,009
Wyoming 4,059 34.46 7,338 62.30 215 1.83 75 0.64 92 0.78 -3,279 -27.84 11,779
York 71,929 38.56 109,631 58.77 2,975 1.59 956 0.51 1,060 0.57 -37,702 -20.21 186,551
Totals 2,751,012 51.25 2,487,260 46.33 72,887 1.36 30,434 0.57 26,428 0.49 263,752 4.91 5,368,021
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Fetterman won 10 of 17 congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican.[377][378]

District Fetterman Oz Representative
1st 52% 45% Brian Fitzpatrick
2nd 72% 26% Brendan Boyle
3rd 91% 8% Dwight Evans
4th 60% 38% Madeleine Dean
5th 65% 32% Mary Gay Scanlon
6th 56% 41% Chrissy Houlahan
7th 51% 46% Susan Wild
8th 49% 48% Matt Cartwright
9th 33% 63% Dan Meuser
10th 48% 49% Scott Perry
11th 40% 58% Lloyd Smucker
12th 63% 35% Mike Doyle (117th Congress)
Summer Lee (118th Congress)
13th 29% 68% John Joyce
14th 38% 60% Guy Reschenthaler
15th 33% 64% Glenn Thompson
16th 42% 55% Mike Kelly
17th 56% 42% Conor Lamb (117th Congress)
Chris Deluzio (118th Congress)

Voter demographics

[edit]

Voter demographic data for 2022 was collected by CNN. The voter survey is based on exit polls completed by 2,660 voters in person as well as by phone.[379]

2022 United States Senate election voter demographics in Pennsylvania (CNN)[379]
Demographic subgroup Fetterman Oz % of
total vote
Ideology
Liberals 92 6 25
Moderates 64 34 41
Conservatives 9 91 34
Party
Democrats 94 5 37
Republicans 10 90 40
Independents 58 38 24
Gender
Men 44 54 50
Women 57 41 50
Marital status
Married 47 53 64
Unmarried 60 37 36
Gender by marital status
Married men 42 57 36
Married women 52 48 28
Unmarried men 52 43 14
Unmarried women 65 34 21
Race/ethnicity
White 45 53 82
Black 91 8 8
Latino 68 30 8
White voters by gender
White men 39 59 41
White women 51 48 40
Age
18–24 years old 72 25 7
25–29 years old 68 31 5
30–39 years old 60 37 13
40–49 years old 50 49 11
50–64 years old 45 54 29
65 and older 46 53 34
2020 presidential vote
Biden 93 6 48
Trump 8 92 45
First time midterm election voter
Yes 62 34 12
No 49 50 88
Education
Never attended college 36 63 24
Some college education 56 41 21
Associate degree 48 49 14
Bachelor's degree 52 47 23
Advanced degree 66 32 18
Education by race
White college graduates 56 43 35
White no college degree 38 60 47
Non-white college graduates 74 25 6
Non-white no college degree 79 20 12
Education by gender/race
White women with college degrees 62 37 17
White women without college degrees 44 55 24
White men with college degrees 50 49 18
White men without college degrees 32 66 23
Non-white 77 22 18
Issue regarded as most important
Crime 51 49 11
Abortion 78 21 37
Inflation 27 72 28
Feelings about Roe v. Wade being overturned
Enthusiastic/satisfied 10 89 38
Dissatisfied/angry 79 19 59
Abortion should be
Legal 76 22 62
Illegal 10 88 34

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Democrats held both of Pennsylvania's Senate seats from 2009 to 2011 when Arlen Specter, who was elected as a Republican, switched to the Democratic Party.
  2. ^ a b c Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Bochetto and Gale with 2%
  5. ^ Bochetto with 1%, Gale with 0%
  6. ^ Bochetto, Gale, and "Other" with 1%
  7. ^ a b c d e Bochetto with 1%
  8. ^ a b Bochetto and Gale with 1%
  9. ^ Gale with 2%, Bochetto and "Other" (volunteered response) with 1%
  10. ^ "Someone else" with 5%, Gale with 1%, Bochetto with 0%
  11. ^ Bochetto with 3%, Gale with 1%
  12. ^ "Someone else" with 6%, Bochetto with 2%, Gale with 0%
  13. ^ Bochetto and Gale with ≤1%
  14. ^ Bochetto with 4%, Gale with 3%
  15. ^ Bochetto with 2%, Gale with 1%
  16. ^ Bochetto, Stern, and "Other" (volunteered response) with 1%
  17. ^ Bochetto, Gale, and Stern with 2%
  18. ^ "Another Candidate" with 11%, Gale with 1%
  19. ^ Gale with 4%; Jeffries with 2%; Xu with 1%; Stern with 0%
  20. ^ Gale with 2%
  21. ^ "Someone else" with 3%, Gale with 0%
  22. ^ "Someone else" with 7%, Gale with 3%
  23. ^ Fetterman was invited to the debate, but declined to attend
  24. ^ Conor Lamb received the most delegate votes of 169, but failed to reach the self-imposed threshold of a two-thirds majority vote, meaning that no candidate received the endorsement of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party.
  25. ^ "Someone else" with 4%; Baumlin and Khalil with 1%
  26. ^ "Someone else" with 9%; Baumlin and Khalil with 0%
  27. ^ Khalil with 4%
  28. ^ Baumlin with 9%; Khalil with 3%
  29. ^ Houlahan with 8%
  30. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  31. ^ Gerhardt (L) with 2%; "All others" with 1%
  32. ^ Gerhardt (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 2%
  33. ^ Gerhardt (L) with 2%; Weiss (G) with 1%; "Someone else" with 1%
  34. ^ a b "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  35. ^ "Other" with 1%; "Refuse" with 1%
  36. ^ Gerhardt (L) with 2%, Weiss (G) with 1%; Wassmer (K) with <1%; "Someone else" with <1%
  37. ^ Gerhardt (L) with 2%, Weiss (G) with 1%; Wassmer (K) with <1%; "Someone else" with 2%
  38. ^ Gerhardt (L) with 1%; Wassmer (K) with <1%; Weiss (G) with <1%
  39. ^ Stern (I, WI) with 4%; "Other" with 1%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  40. ^ a b "Someone else" with 4%
  41. ^ "Neither/Other" with 3%
  42. ^ Gerhardt (L) with 3%, "Someone else" with 1%
  43. ^ Gerhardt (L) with <1%; Weiss (G) with <1%
  44. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  45. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; "Not going to vote" with 1%; Gerhardt (L) with 1%
  46. ^ "Some other candidate" with 6%
  47. ^ Gerhardt (L) with 2%; Weiss (G) and Wassmer (K) with 1%
  48. ^ Gerhardt (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  49. ^ "Neither" with 5%; "Other" with 1%
  50. ^ "Neither" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  51. ^ a b "Someone else" with 3%
  52. ^ "Other" with 2%
  53. ^ Gerhardt (L) with 3%; "Other" with 1%
  54. ^ Gerhardt (L) with 2%; Wassmer (K) with 1%; Weiss (G) with <1%
  55. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
  56. ^ Stern (I, W/I) with 3%, "other" with 1%, and 3% "wouldn't vote,"
  57. ^ Stern (I, W/I) with 2%, "other" with 1%
  58. ^ Gerhardt (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 4%
  59. ^ "Another party's candidate" with <1%
  60. ^ "Neither/Other" with 5%
  61. ^ Gerhardt (L) and "Other" with 4%
  62. ^ "Some other candidate" with 4%; Gerhardt (L) with 3%; Wassmer (K) and Weiss (G) with 1%
  63. ^ Gerhardt (L) and "Other" with 2%
  64. ^ Stern (I, WI) with 3%; "other" (volunteered response) with 2%
  65. ^ Gerhardt (L), Magee (I, W/I), Stern (I, WI), and Weiss (G) with 1%; Johnson (C) and "someone else" with <1%
  66. ^ Democrats briefly held both of Pennsylvania's Senate seats from 2009 to 2011 when Arlen Specter, who was elected as a Republican to this seat, switched to the Democratic Party.
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c d e f g Poll sponsored by Honor Pennsylvania PAC, which supports McCormick.
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by Oz's campaign.
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by McCormick's campaign.
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by Parnell's campaign.
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h i Poll sponsored by Fetterman's campaign.
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by pro-Lamb super PAC Penn Progress.
  7. ^ Poll sponsored by Kenyatta's campaign.
  8. ^ This poll was sponsored by The Daily Wire
  9. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Oz
  10. ^ This poll was conducted for John Bolton Super PAC
  11. ^ This poll was sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project
  12. ^ This poll was sponsored by EDF Action and NRDC Action Fund
  13. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Collective PAC.

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[edit]
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  327. ^ "Scranton Rally with John Fetterman, Sen. Bob Casey, Rep. Matt Cartwright, and Other Special Guests! · John Fetterman for Senate". Archived from the original on September 15, 2022. Retrieved September 15, 2022.
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  329. ^ "Philadelphia Rally with John Fetterman, Rep. Dwight Evans, and other special guests! · John Fetterman for Senate". Archived from the original on September 24, 2022. Retrieved September 24, 2022.
  330. ^ a b Prater, Nia (June 3, 2022). "Fetterman on Stroke: 'I Almost Died'". New York. Retrieved June 3, 2022.
  331. ^ "Centrist Conor Lamb loses by 30 points despite Joe Manchin's endorsement and millions from Wall St". Salon.com. May 18, 2022. Retrieved May 18, 2022.
  332. ^ "Ocasio-Cortez backs Fetterman, Barnes and Ryan for Senate". June 29, 2022.
  333. ^ "Kenyatta to campaign for Fetterman in Pennsylvania". The Hill. May 18, 2022.
  334. ^ "John Fetterman shares stage with State Rep. Patty Kim in Harrisburg". York Dispatch. November 6, 2022. Retrieved November 7, 2022. Patty Kim, left, while endorsing Pennsylvania Lt. Governor and Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate John Fetterman
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  336. ^ "'Women are the reason we can win,' John Fetterman says at packed abortion-rights rally in Montco". September 11, 2022.
  337. ^ "After rallying with Trump, Oz is pivoting toward the suburbs that have abandoned the GOP". September 10, 2022.
  338. ^ Yocum, Haylee (November 3, 2022). "Shapiro, Fetterman Hold Campaign Rally at Penn State". StateCollege.com. Retrieved November 7, 2022. Nanes shared with the crowd why he is supporting Shapiro, Davis and Fetterman.
  339. ^ "Redmond: We're Building a Pennsylvania That Works for All of Us". AFL–CIO. April 2, 2022. Retrieved June 10, 2022.
  340. ^ "Fetterman lands major endorsement from National Education Association". pennlive.com. June 22, 2022. Retrieved June 24, 2022.
  341. ^ "Pennsylvania - COMPAC Endorsements". UMWA. Retrieved November 1, 2022.
  342. ^ "BREAKING: U.S. Senate candidate John Fetterman stakes out strong stands on Armenian American and Hellenic American policy priorities". Facebook. October 4, 2022. Retrieved October 11, 2022.
  343. ^ "Meet The Candidates". Archived from the original on December 23, 2022. Retrieved September 20, 2022.
  344. ^ @DemMaj4Israel (May 18, 2022). "DMFI PAC is thrilled to endorse Lt. Gov. @JohnFetterman for U.S. Senate, a proud pro-Israel progressive" (Tweet). Retrieved May 18, 2022 – via Twitter.
  345. ^ @dscc (May 17, 2022). "BREAKING NEWS:@JohnFetterman is Pennsylvania's Democratic nominee for Senate! John rolls up his sleeves and gets things done, and will always put Pennsylvania families first" (Tweet). Retrieved May 18, 2022 – via Twitter.
  346. ^ a b @StopBigMoney (May 26, 2022). "🚨 ENDORSEMENT ALERT 🚨 Sheetz > Wawa; and @StopBigMoney/@LetAmericaVote endorsed @JohnFetterman > whichever MAGA Republican ends up winning the Republican nomination to Senate" (Tweet). Retrieved May 26, 2022 – via Twitter.
  347. ^ "Giffords Endorses Lt. Governor John Fetterman for U.S. Senate". Giffords. June 9, 2022. Retrieved June 2, 2022.
  348. ^ "Human Rights Campaign Endorses John Fetterman for Senate". July 28, 2022.
  349. ^ "Humane Society Legislative Fund Launches New Ad Supporting Dog Rescuer John Fetterman for U.S. Senate". HSLF. Retrieved December 8, 2022.
  350. ^ "Unprecedented Spending by AIPAC, Billionaire SuperPACs Fail in Efforts to Decide Elections in Pennsylvania and Oregon". J Street. May 18, 2022.
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  353. ^ "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses John Fetterman for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania". prochoiceamerica.org. July 1, 2022. Retrieved July 1, 2022.
  354. ^ "The Revolution Report: 5-21-22". Our Revolution. May 21, 2022. Retrieved June 22, 2022.
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  356. ^ "PA Dems Statement on Ongoing GOP Senate Recount". May 27, 2022. Retrieved June 10, 2022.
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  358. ^ "2022 House & Senate Endorsements". Archived from the original on July 2, 2022. Retrieved July 2, 2022.
  359. ^ "Congressional Endorsements". Sierra Club Independent Action.
  360. ^ "Fetterman is prepared and able to serve". The Citizens' Voice. October 31, 2022. Retrieved November 4, 2022.
  361. ^ "PA Media Group endorses candidates for top offices in the Nov. 8 elections". The Patriot-News. October 29, 2022. Retrieved November 7, 2022.
  362. ^ Mueller, Julia (October 16, 2022). "Philadelphia Inquirer endorses Fetterman". The Hill. Retrieved October 16, 2022.
  363. ^ Randolph, Irv (November 1, 2022). "John Fetterman is the best choice for Senate". The Philadelphia Tribune. Retrieved November 2, 2022.
  364. ^ "Vote responsibly: Shapiro for governor, Fetterman for Senate".
  365. ^ Mueller, Julia (November 7, 2022). "Ex-DC officer injured during Jan. 6 riot endorses Fetterman". The Hill. Retrieved November 7, 2022.
  366. ^ Delano, Jon (December 21, 2022). "Franco Harris cared about politics because he cared about people". CBS Pittsburgh. Retrieved December 27, 2022.
  367. ^ CBS News (December 21, 2022). "Franco Harris, Legendary Steelers Running Back, Dead at 72". Entertainment Tonight. Retrieved December 27, 2022. Fetterman ... frequently had Franco Harris supporting his campaign
  368. ^ "John Fetterman 'rolls up his sleeves' in hometown Pa. Rally". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. October 8, 2022. Retrieved October 17, 2022.
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  370. ^ "Join John Fetterman and Paul Rudd!".
  371. ^ "Kerry Washington hits the streets in the battle for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania". MSNBC. November 6, 2022. 05:45. Retrieved November 7, 2022.
  372. ^ Calvario, Liz (November 3, 2022). "Oprah Winfrey announces her support for Dr. Oz opponent, John Fetterman". Today. Retrieved November 3, 2022.
  373. ^ Griswold, Eliza (November 9, 2022). "The Unlikely Victory of John Fetterman". The New Yorker.
  374. ^ Brownstein, Ronald (October 10, 2023). "McCarthy's fall and Trump's rise reflect the same bet among Republicans". CNN. Retrieved October 10, 2023.
  375. ^ "2022 General Election Official Returns - United States Senator". Pennsylvania Department of State.
  376. ^ "2022 General Election Official Returns - United States Senator - County Breakdown". Pennsylvania Department of State.
  377. ^ Results. docs.google.com (Report).
  378. ^ 2022 US Senate election results by precinct
  379. ^ a b "Exit polls for Midterm Election Results 2022 | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved November 19, 2022.
[edit]

2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania at Ballotpedia

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