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Turnout | 56.7% | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Johnson: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Barnes: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Wisconsin |
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The 2022 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate from Wisconsin. The party primaries were held on August 9, 2022. Incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson won election to a third term, defeating Democratic Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes[1] by 26,718 votes—a one-point margin of victory.
In 2016, Johnson had pledged to serve only two terms in the Senate. He reversed this decision in 2022.[2] The race was one of the most competitive of the cycle, and it followed considerable Democratic success in recent statewide elections. In 2018, Democrats won every statewide contest on the ballot, including the election for the state's other Senate seat. In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden narrowly carried the state in the presidential election.[3]
Barnes led in most polls during the summer of 2022. In the final weeks prior to the election, Johnson took a lead of more than three points in the polling average. Though Johnson ultimately prevailed, this election was the closest of his three Senate victories. This was the first Senate election in Wisconsin since 1998 in which the winning candidate was of a different party than the winner of the concurrent gubernatorial election.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Ron Johnson (incumbent) | 563,871 | 83.7 | |
Republican | David Schroeder | 109,917 | 16.3 | |
Total votes | 673,788 | 100.0 |
Candidate | Unitemized (<$200) individual contributions | Itemized (>$200) individual contributions | Self funding | Coverage ending |
---|---|---|---|---|
Mandela Barnes | $2,668,973.10 | $3,305,480.72 | $0.00 | Coverage ending: 06/30/2022[47] |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mandela Barnes |
Sarah Godlewski |
Alex Lasry |
Tom Nelson |
Other | Undecided | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Godlewski withdraws from the race and endorses Barnes | |||||||||||||||
Lasry withdraws from the race and endorses Barnes | |||||||||||||||
Nelson withdraws from the race and endorses Barnes | |||||||||||||||
Impact Research (D)[A] | July 12–17, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 12% | 25% | 5% | – | 18% | ||||||
Change Research (D)[B] | July 1–7, 2022 | 560 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 40% | 12% | 16% | 6% | 1%[b] | 22% | ||||||
Marquette University | June 14–20, 2022 | 381 (LV) | ± 6.2% | 25% | 9% | 21% | 7% | 1%[c] | 36% | ||||||
Normington Petts (D) Archived June 1, 2022, at the Wayback Machine[C] | May 18–22, 2022 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 34% | 18% | 31% | 5% | – | 12% | ||||||
Marquette University | April 19–24, 2022 | 311 (LV) | ± 6.6% | 19% | 7% | 16% | 5% | 2%[d] | 49% | ||||||
Impact Research (D)[A] | March 16–23, 2022 | 449 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 38% | 9% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 26% | ||||||
Normington Petts (D) Archived March 2, 2022, at the Wayback Machine[C] | February 23–27, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 7% | 27% | 7% | – | 24% | ||||||
Marquette University Archived March 2, 2022, at the Wayback Machine | February 22–27, 2022 | 362 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 23% | 3% | 13% | 5% | 5%[e] | 49% | ||||||
Impact Research (D)[A] | December 8–16, 2021 | 842 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 10% | 11% | 8% | 3% | 29% | ||||||
Data for Progress (D)[D] | November 11–15, 2021 | 524 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 5% | 16% | 6% | 5%[f] | 29% | ||||||
Normington Petts (D) Archived March 2, 2022, at the Wayback Machine[C] | November 2021 | – (LV) | – | 37% | 5% | 15% | 7% | – | 36% | ||||||
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[A] | August 28–30, 2021 | 698 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 37% | 7% | 5% | 8% | 3%[g] | 38% | ||||||
Normington Petts (D) Archived March 2, 2022, at the Wayback Machine[C] | August 2021 | – (LV) | – | 43% | 5% | 4% | 7% | – | 41% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Mandela Barnes | 390,279 | 77.8 | |
Democratic | Alex Lasry (withdrawn) | 44,609 | 8.9 | |
Democratic | Sarah Godlewski (withdrawn) | 40,555 | 8.1 | |
Democratic | Tom Nelson (withdrawn) | 10,995 | 2.2 | |
Democratic | Steven Olikara | 5,619 | 1.1 | |
Democratic | Darrell Williams | 3,646 | 0.7 | |
Democratic | Kou Lee | 3,434 | 0.7 | |
Democratic | Peter Peckarsky | 2,446 | 0.5 | |
Total votes | 501,583 | 100.0 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[133] | Lean R | November 4, 2022 |
Inside Elections[134] | Tilt R | April 1, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[135] | Lean R | March 1, 2022 |
Politico[136] | Tossup | April 1, 2022 |
RCP[137] | Tossup | January 10, 2022 |
Fox News[138] | Lean R | May 12, 2022 |
DDHQ[139] | Likely R | August 17, 2022 |
538[140] | Likely R | October 20, 2022 |
The Economist[141] | Likely R | November 1, 2022 |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn |
||||||
Ron Johnson | Mandela Barnes | |||||
1 | Oct. 7, 2022 | Wisconsin Broadcasters Association | Jill Geisler | Youtube | P | P |
2 | Oct. 13, 2022 | Marquette University | Charles Benson Shannon Sims |
C-SPAN | P | P |
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Ron Johnson (R) |
Mandela Barnes (D) |
Undecided [h] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RealClearPolitics | October 24 – November 5, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 50.2% | 46.6% | 3.2% | Johnson +3.6 |
FiveThirtyEight | August 15 – November 8, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 50.4% | 47.0% | 2.6% | Johnson +3.4 |
270toWin | November 3–7, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 50.2% | 46.6% | 3.2% | Johnson +3.6 |
Average | 50.3% | 46.7% | 3.0% | Johnson +3.6 |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ron Johnson (R) |
Mandela Barnes (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Civiqs | November 4–7, 2022 | 739 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 49% | – | 1% |
Research Co. | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 51% | 45% | – | 4% |
Data for Progress (D) | November 2–5, 2022 | 1,504 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 53% | 47% | – | – |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | November 2–4, 2022 | 1,095 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 47% | – | 3% |
Marquette University | October 24 – November 1, 2022 | 802 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 45% | 5%[i] | 1% |
679 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 50% | 48% | 1%[j] | 1% | ||
Clarity Campaign Labs (D) Archived November 1, 2022, at the Wayback Machine[A] | October 27–31, 2022 | 888 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 48% | – | 6% |
Siena College | October 27–31, 2022 | 655 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 47% | 45% | 2%[k] | 6% |
Fox News | October 26–30, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 45% | 3%[l] | 5% |
Wick Insights | October 26–30, 2022 | 1,089 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 46% | 2%[m] | 2% |
Emerson College | October 27–29, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 46% | 2%[m] | 3% |
51% | 46% | 3%[n] | – | ||||
Patriot Polling | October 20–23, 2022 | 801 (RV) | – | 52% | 43% | – | 5% |
Data for Progress (D) | October 14–22, 2022 | 1,376 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 46% | – | 2% |
CNN/SSRS | October 13–17, 2022 | 905 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 48% | 5%[o] | 1% |
714 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 50% | 49% | 1%[p] | – | ||
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[A] | October 7–11, 2022 | 874 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 48% | – | 5% |
Marquette University | October 3–9, 2022 | 801 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 47% | 5%[q] | 2% |
652 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 52% | 46% | 2%[r] | 1% | ||
YouGov/CBS News | October 3–7, 2022 | 1,138 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 49% | – | 1% |
Public Policy Polling (D) | September 26–27, 2022 | 574 (V) | – | 47% | 47% | – | 6% |
Fox News | September 22–26, 2022 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 44% | 3%[s] | 5% |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) | September 18–25, 2022 | 1399 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 46% | – | 5% |
Data for Progress (D) | September 20–23, 2022 | 999 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 48% | – | 3% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | September 15–19, 2022 | 1087 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 47% | – | 5% |
Emerson College | September 16–18, 2022 | 860 (LV) | ± 3.27% | 48% | 44% | 3% | 6% |
Big Data Poll (R) | September 17–18, 2022 | 852 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 46% | – | – |
Siena College | September 14–15, 2022 | 651 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 47% | 48% | 2%[k] | 4% |
OnMessage Inc. (R)[E] | September 11–13, 2022 | 800 (LV) | – | 49% | 45% | – | 6% |
Civiqs | September 10–13, 2022 | 780 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 48% | 1% | 2% |
Marquette University | September 6–11, 2022 | 801 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 47% | – | 5% |
632 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 49% | 48% | – | 3% | ||
The Trafalgar Group (R) | August 22–25, 2022 | 1,091 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 49% | – | 4% |
Fox News | August 12–16, 2022 | 1,006 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 50% | 1% | 4% |
Marquette University | August 10–15, 2022 | 811 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 44% | 51% | 1% | 4% |
713 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 45% | 52% | 0% | 3% | ||
Marquette University | June 14–20, 2022 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 44% | 46% | 1% | 8% |
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[A] | September 8–11, 2021 | 756 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 43% | – | 14% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ron Johnson (R) |
Sarah Godlewski (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marquette University | June 14–20, 2022 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 43% | 45% | 2% | 10% |
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[A] | September 8–11, 2021 | 756 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 44% | 41% | – | 15% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ron Johnson (R) |
Alex Lasry (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marquette University | June 14–20, 2022 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 45% | 42% | 2% | 11% |
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[A] | September 8–11, 2021 | 756 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 41% | – | 14% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ron Johnson (R) |
Tom Nelson (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marquette University | June 14–20, 2022 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 43% | 44% | 2% | 11% |
Change Research (D)[F] | March 25–27, 2021 | 1,723 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 44% | 48% | – | 5% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Ron Johnson (incumbent) | 1,337,185 | 50.41% | +0.24% | |
Democratic | Mandela Barnes | 1,310,467 | 49.41% | +2.60% | |
Write-in | 4,825 | 0.18% | +0.13% | ||
Total votes | 2,652,477 | 100.0% | |||
Republican hold |
By county
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Johnson won 6 of 8 congressional districts.[177]
District | Johnson | Barnes | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 52% | 48% | Bryan Steil |
2nd | 28% | 72% | Mark Pocan |
3rd | 53% | 47% | Ron Kind (117th Congress) |
Derrick Van Orden (118th Congress) | |||
4th | 23% | 77% | Gwen Moore |
5th | 63% | 37% | Scott L. Fitzgerald |
6th | 59% | 41% | Glenn Grothman |
7th | 61% | 39% | Tom Tiffany |
8th | 59% | 41% | Mike Gallagher |
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