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Turnout | 56.7% ( 4.5%) | |||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Evers: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Michels: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Wisconsin |
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The 2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Wisconsin. Incumbent Democratic Governor Tony Evers won re-election to a second term by a margin of 3.4%, defeating Republican nominee Tim Michels.
As Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes ran for the U.S. Senate in the concurrent election, a new Democratic running mate, state assemblywoman Sara Rodriguez, was nominated in the partisan primary. Barnes was the second lieutenant governor not to run with the incumbent governor since the state constitution was amended in 1967. The partisan primary was held on August 9, 2022, with businessman Tim Michels defeating former lieutenant governor Rebecca Kleefisch in the Republican primary. State senator Roger Roth received the Republican nomination for lieutenant governor.
This election result was the first since 2006 in which a Democrat in Wisconsin won with an outright majority of the vote, the first since 1990 in which the winner was from the same party as the incumbent president, and the first since 1962 in which Wisconsin voted for a Democratic governor at the same time the party held the presidency. This was also the first gubernatorial election in the state since 1998 in which the winning candidate was of a different party than the winner of the concurrent U.S. Senate election.
Evers's victory was labeled a slight upset, as Evers was initially elected back in 2018 by a meager 1.1%, despite 2018 being considered a much more favorable year for Democrats than 2022. In addition, many polls showed Michels in the lead in the weeks leading up to the election. According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Evers won independent voters by 6–7 percentage points, which contributed to Michels's defeat.[1]
Evers did substantially better than Mandela Barnes did against incumbent senator Ron Johnson in suburban areas of the state in this election as well as compared to his initial election in 2018, chiefly in the "WOW" counties of Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington that form a ring around the north and west of Milwaukee, performing in line with Biden's 2020 margins. On the flip side, Michels did better in most rural areas than former governor Scott Walker had in 2018, winning the counties of Crawford, Grant, and Richland, three counties that Evers had previously won four years earlier. Michels also flipped the county of Kenosha. One exception to the trend toward Republicans in rural areas was Door County, which flipped to Evers after having voted for Walker in 2018. Notably, Evers carried the 3rd congressional district, which Republican Derrick Van Orden concurrently won after losing in 2020 to then-Representative Ron Kind; Evers also came within 0.2% of carrying the 1st congressional district.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Tony Evers (incumbent) | 491,656 | 100.0% | |
Total votes | 491,656 | 100.0% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Peng Her |
Sara Rodriguez |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D)[A] | July 1–7, 2022 | 560 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 8% | 25% | 62% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Sara Rodriguez | 354,260 | 76.50% | |
Democratic | Peng Her | 108,766 | 23.49% | |
Democratic | Angela Kennedy (write-in) | 39 | 0.01% | |
Total votes | 463,065 | 100.0 |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Eric Hovde |
Rebecca Kleefisch |
Tim Michels |
Kevin Nicholson |
Tim Ramthun |
Jonathan Wichmann |
Other | Undecided | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trafalgar Group (R) | Aug 6–8, 2022 | 1,092 (LV) | ± 2.9% | – | 43% | 44% | 3% | 8% | – | 3%[b] | – | |||||
Emerson College | Aug 3–5, 2022 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.2% | – | 36% | 34% | 6% | 8% | – | 2%[c] | 14% | |||||
NMB Research (R)[B] | Jul 16–18, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | – | 35% | 43% | – | – | – | 3% | 19% | |||||
Nicholson suspends his campaign | ||||||||||||||||
Marquette University | Jun 14–20, 2022 | 359 (LV) | ± 6.3% | – | 26% | 27% | 10% | 3% | – | 2%[d] | 32% | |||||
Public Policy Polling (D)[C] | May 9–10, 2022 | 675 (LV) | ± 3.8% | – | 26% | 27% | 9% | 6% | – | 3% | 29% | |||||
Marquette University | Apr 19–24, 2022 | 413 (LV) | ± 5.6% | – | 32% | – | 10% | 4% | – | 3% | 47% | |||||
Remington Research Group (R)[D] | Mar 31 – Apr 2, 2022 | 1,207 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 4% | 42% | – | 29% | – | – | – | 26% | |||||
Marquette University Archived March 2, 2022, at the Wayback Machine | Feb 22–27, 2022 | 353 (LV) | ± 5.8% | – | 30% | – | 8% | 5% | – | 1% | 56% | |||||
WPA Intelligence (R) | Jan 18, 2022 | – (LV) | – | 3% | 59% | – | 8% | – | – | – | – | |||||
The Tarrance Group (R)[E] | Jan 10–13, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | – | 65% | – | 12% | – | – | – | 23% | |||||
– | 61% | – | 8% | – | 5% | 2% | 24% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Tim Michels | 326,969 | 47.18% | |
Republican | Rebecca Kleefisch | 291,384 | 42.05% | |
Republican | Timothy Ramthun | 41,639 | 6.01% | |
Republican | Kevin Nicholson (withdrawn) | 24,884 | 3.59% | |
Republican | Adam Fischer | 8,139 | 1.17% | |
Total votes | 693,015 | 100.0% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Roger Roth | 178,972 | 30.16% | |
Republican | Patrick Testin | 109,374 | 18.43% | |
Republican | Cindy Werner | 80,953 | 13.64% | |
Republican | Jonathan Wichmann | 79,166 | 13.34% | |
Republican | Will Martin | 54,790 | 9.23% | |
Republican | Kyle Yudes | 32,051 | 5.40% | |
Republican | David C. Varnam | 30,640 | 5.16% | |
Republican | David D. King | 27,443 | 4.63% | |
Total votes | 593,389 | 100.0% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[83] | Tossup | June 8, 2022 |
Inside Elections[84] | Tossup | March 4, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[85] | Lean R (flip) | November 7, 2022 |
Politico[86] | Tossup | April 1, 2022 |
RCP[87] | Tossup | June 1, 2022 |
Fox News[88] | Tossup | May 12, 2022 |
538[89] | Tossup | October 7, 2022 |
Elections Daily[90] | Lean R (flip) | November 7, 2022 |
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Tony Evers (D) |
Tim Michels (R) |
Joan Ellis Beglinger (I) |
Undecided [g] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RealClearPolitics | September 20 – November 1, 2022 | November 1, 2022 | 48.2% | 48.4% | – | 3.4% | Michels +0.2 |
FiveThirtyEight | August 15 – November 2, 2022 | November 2, 2022 | 47.5% | 48.9% | 2.2% | 1.4% | Michels +1.4 |
Average | 47.9% | 48.7% | – | 3.4% | Michels +0.8 |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Tony Evers (D) |
Tim Michels (R) |
Joan Ellis Beglinger (I) |
Other | Undecided | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Civiqs | November 4–7, 2022 | 739 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 51% | 48% | – | 1%[h] | 1% | ||||||||
Research Co. | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 48% | – | – | 4% | ||||||||
Data for Progress (D) | November 2–5, 2022 | 1,504 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 48% | 50% | 2% | – | – | ||||||||
The Trafalgar Group (R) | November 2–4, 2022 | 1,095 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 50% | 1% | – | 2% | ||||||||
Marquette University | October 24 – November 1, 2022 | 802 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 44% | 45% | 5% | 3%[i] | 3% | ||||||||
679 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 48% | 48% | 2% | – | 1% | ||||||||||
Siena College | October 27–31, 2022 | 655 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 47% | 45% | – | 2%[j] | 6% | ||||||||
Fox News | October 26–30, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 47% | – | 3%[k] | 4% | ||||||||
Wick Insights | October 26–30, 2022 | 1,089 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 48% | – | 2%[l] | 4% | ||||||||
Emerson College | October 27–29, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 48% | 2% | <1%[m] | 3% | ||||||||
48% | 49% | 2% | 1%[n] | – | ||||||||||||
Patriot Polling | October 20–23, 2022 | 801 (LV) | – | 46% | 50% | – | 4% | |||||||||
Data for Progress (D) | October 14–22, 2022 | 1,376 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 1% | – | 2% | ||||||||
CNN/SSRS | October 13–17, 2022 | 905 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 50% | 46% | – | 4%[o] | – | ||||||||
714 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 50% | 48% | – | 1%[p] | – | ||||||||||
Marquette University | October 3–9, 2022 | 801 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 41% | 7% | 2%[q] | 3% | ||||||||
652 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 47% | 46% | 4% | 2%[r] | 1% | ||||||||||
YouGov/CBS News | October 3–7, 2022 | 1,138 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 50% | – | 0% | 0% | ||||||||
Public Policy Polling (D) | September 26–27, 2022 | 574 (V) | – | 48% | 46% | – | – | 5% | ||||||||
Fox News | September 22–26, 2022 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 47% | – | 2%[s] | 4% | ||||||||
Fabrazio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) | September 18–25, 2022 | 1399 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 50% | – | – | 3% | ||||||||
Data for Progress (D) | September 20–23, 2022 | 999 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 48% | 2% | – | 3% | ||||||||
The Trafalgar Group (R) | September 15–19, 2022 | 1087 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 48% | – | 2% | 3% | ||||||||
Emerson College | September 16–18, 2022 | 860 (LV) | ± 3.27% | 45% | 43% | 4% | 1% | 7% | ||||||||
Big Data Poll (R) | September 17–18, 2022 | 852 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 42% | 42% | 14% | ||||||||||
Siena College | September 14–15, 2022 | 651 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 44% | – | 2%[t] | 5% | ||||||||
Civiqs | September 10–13, 2022 | 780 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 48% | – | 2% | 3% | ||||||||
Marquette University | September 6–11, 2022 | 801 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 44% | 43% | 8% | 1% | 4% | ||||||||
632 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 44% | 5% | 0% | 3% | ||||||||||
Beglinger withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
The Trafalgar Group (R) | August 22–25, 2022 | 1,091 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 48% | – | 2% | 3% | ||||||||
OnMessage Inc. (R)[F] | August 22–24, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 48% | – | – | 4% | ||||||||
Fox News | August 12–16, 2022 | 1,006 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 46% | – | 1% | 3% | ||||||||
Marquette University | August 10–15, 2022 | 811 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 43% | 7% | 0% | 5% | ||||||||
713 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 46% | 44% | 5% | 0% | 5% | ||||||||||
Marquette University | June 14–20, 2022 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 41% | – | 2% | 9% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Tony Evers (D) |
Rebecca Kleefisch (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marquette University | June 14–20, 2022 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 43% | 1% | 8% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | August 20–24, 2021 | 730 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 39% | 38% | 3% | 14% |
718 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 41% | 41% | 3% | 12% | ||
Change Research (D)[G] | March 25–27, 2021 | 1,723 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 43% | – | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Tony Evers (D) |
Tim Ramthun (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marquette University | June 14–20, 2022 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 51% | 34% | 2% | 12% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Tony Evers (D) |
Kevin Nicholson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marquette University | June 14–20, 2022 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 40% | 1% | 9% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Tony Evers (D) |
Jonathan Wichmann (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | August 20–24, 2021 | 730 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 41% | 34% | 5% | 14% |
718 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 43% | 36% | 4% | 12% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Tony Evers (D) |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cygnal (R) | July 6–8, 2021 | 640 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 48% | 6% |
Public Policy Polling (D) Archived August 12, 2021, at the Wayback Machine[A] | February 8–9, 2021 | 937 (V) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key:
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn |
||||||
Tony Evers | Tim Michels | |||||
1 | Oct. 14, 2022 | WBAY-TV | Jill Geisler | YouTube | P | P |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic |
|
1,358,774 | 51.15% | +1.61% | |
Republican |
|
1,268,535 | 47.75% | −0.69% | |
Independent |
|
27,198 | 1.02% | N/A | |
Write-in | 1,983 | 0.08% | +0.04% | ||
Total votes | 2,656,490 | 100.0% | -0.63% | ||
Turnout | 2,668,891 | 56.7% | |||
Registered electors | 3,760,845 | ||||
Democratic hold |
By county
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Evers won 3 of 8 congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican.[131]
District | Evers | Michels | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 49.3% | 49.5% | Bryan Steil |
2nd | 74% | 26% | Mark Pocan |
3rd | 50% | 49% | Ron Kind (117th Congress) |
Derrick Van Orden (118th Congress) | |||
4th | 77% | 21% | Gwen Moore |
5th | 39% | 61% | Scott L. Fitzgerald |
6th | 42% | 57% | Glenn Grothman |
7th | 40% | 58% | Tom Tiffany |
8th | 43% | 56% | Mike Gallagher |
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