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Ayotte: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Craig: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% >90% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in New Hampshire |
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The 2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of New Hampshire. Republican former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte and Democratic former Manchester mayor Joyce Craig sought their first term in office. Ayotte won the election, and will succeed incumbent Republican Chris Sununu, who did not seek election to a fifth term.[1] Along with neighboring Vermont, this race was one of two Republican-held governorships up for election in 2024 in a state Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election.
Primary elections took place on September 10, 2024.[2] Ayotte won the Republican nomination with 63% of the vote over former state senate president Chuck Morse and Craig won the Democratic nomination with 48% of the vote over state executive councilor Cinde Warmington.
Republican Kelly Ayotte won the election by 9.34%, with the state concurrently voting for Kamala Harris in the 2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire.
New Hampshire is a slightly blue state in New England, with a pattern of split-ticket voting. Incumbent Republican governor Chris Sununu was narrowly elected in the 2016 New Hampshire gubernatorial election, and easily won re-election in the 2020 New Hampshire gubernatorial election. This was despite Donald Trump losing the state in both 2016 (by 0.37%) and 2020 (by 7.35%). Republican gubernatorial nominee Kelly Ayotte narrowly lost re-election in the 2016 United States Senate election in New Hampshire by 0.14%.
This race was widely considered a tossup, due to the incumbent retiring, the state's pattern of ticket splitting, and the concurrent 2024 presidential election.[3]
Campaign finance reports as of September 4, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Kelly Ayotte (R) | $7,301,915 | $5,499,318 | $1,677,858 |
Chuck Morse (R) | $1,513,599 | $1,472,846 | $40,753 |
Source: New Hampshire Campaign Finance System[21] |
Date | Host | Ayotte | Morse | Link |
---|---|---|---|---|
August 26, 2024 | N.H. Institute of Politics | Participant | Participant | YouTube |
September 3, 2024 | WMUR-TV | Participant | Participant | YouTube |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kelly Ayotte |
Chuck Morse |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire | August 15–19, 2024 | 915 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 65% | 21% | 13%[b] |
Saint Anselm College | August 13–14, 2024 | 657 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 59% | 25% | 16% |
Emerson College[A] | July 26–28, 2024 | 421 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 41% | 26% | 33% |
Praecones Analytica[B] | May 15–20, 2024 | 420 (RV) | ± 6.42% | 50% | 28% | 22% |
UMass Lowell | January 6–16, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.65% | 54% | 22% | 23% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kelly Ayotte |
Robert Burns |
Frank Edelblut |
Chuck Morse |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | August 9–11, 2023 | 498 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 3% | 4% | 9% | 3% | 35% |
co/efficient[B] | June 14–16, 2023 | 904 (LV) | ± 3.25% | 69% | – | 9% | 22% | – | – |
Ayotte secured a major[22] victory over Morse, winning almost two thirds of the vote. She performed the best in Sullivan County in the southwest of the state, earning 74% of the vote. Conversely, she recorded her worst result in Rockingham County in the southeast, receiving just 54.7% of the vote.[23]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Kelly Ayotte | 88,117 | 63.12% | |
Republican | Chuck Morse | 47,567 | 34.07% | |
Republican | Shaun Fife | 876 | 0.63% | |
Write-in | 867 | 0.62% | ||
Republican | Robert McClory | 839 | 0.60% | |
Republican | Frank Staples | 809 | 0.58% | |
Republican | Richard McMenamon | 527 | 0.38% | |
Total votes | 139,602 | 100.00% |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Democratic | Democratic |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
|||||||
Craig | Warmington | Kiper | |||||
1 | Sep. 4, 2024 | WMUR-TV | Adam Sexton | YouTube | P | P | P |
Campaign finance reports as of August 20, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Joyce Craig (D) | $2,976,496 | $2,630,738 | $342,052 |
Cinde Warmington (D) | $2,287,849 | $2,135,285 | $152,564 |
Jon Kiper (D) | $58,277 | $55,985 | $1,443 |
Source: New Hampshire Campaign Finance System[21] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joyce Craig |
Cinde Warmington |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire | August 15–19, 2024 | 809 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 39% | 30% | 8%[c] | 23% |
Saint Anselm College | August 13–14, 2024 | 670 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 37% | 28% | 3%[d] | 31% |
Emerson College[A] | July 26–28, 2024 | 433 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 33% | 21% | – | 44% |
GBAO[C] | February 22–26, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 25% | – | 39% |
Emerson College | August 9–11, 2023 | 837 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 30% | 15% | 2% | 52% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Joyce Craig | 59,976 | 47.88% | |
Democratic | Cinde Warmington | 52,420 | 41.85% | |
Democratic | Jon Kiper | 11,789 | 9.41% | |
Write-in | 1,076 | 0.86% | ||
Total votes | 125,261 | 100.00% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[44] | Tossup | October 15, 2024 |
Inside Elections[45] | Tossup | September 26, 2024 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[46] | Lean R | November 4, 2024 |
RCP[47] | Tossup | October 1, 2024 |
Elections Daily[48] | Lean R | November 4, 2024 |
CNalysis[49] | Tilt R | November 1, 2024 |
Campaign finance reports as of November 5, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Kelly Ayotte (R) | $21,005,579 | $18,668,848 | $2,204,119 |
Joyce Craig (D) | $7,346,371 | $6,827,299 | $515,368 |
Source: New Hampshire Campaign Finance System[21] |
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kelly Ayotte (R) |
Joyce Craig (D) |
Undecided [e] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RealClearPolitics | October 21 – November 2, 2024 | November 3, 2024 | 46.8% | 44.3% | 8.9% | Ayotte +2.5% |
270toWin | October 24 – November 3, 2024 | November 3, 2024 | 47.0% | 44.0% | 9.0% | Ayotte +3.0% |
Average | 46.9% | 44.2% | 8.9% | Ayotte +2.7% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kelly Ayotte (R) |
Joyce Craig (D) |
Others | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dartmouth College | November 1–3, 2024 | 587 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 58% | 2%[f] | – |
University of New Hampshire | October 29 – November 2, 2024 | 2,814 (LV) | ± 1.9% | 48% | 44% | 1%[g] | 6% |
Saint Anselm College | October 28–29, 2024 | 2,791 (LV) | ± 1.9% | 49% | 46% | 2%[h] | 3% |
Praecones Analytica[B] | October 24–26, 2024 | 622 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 52% | 48% | – | – |
Emerson College[A] | October 21–23, 2024 | 915 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 46% | 5%[i] | – |
46% | 43% | 4%[j] | 7% | ||||
UMass Lowell/YouGov | October 10–23, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 43% | 4%[k] | 8% |
Dartmouth College | October 5–18, 2024 | 2,196 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 46% | 51% | 3%[l] | – |
UMass Lowell/YouGov | October 2–10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 42% | 41% | 4%[m] | 14% |
Saint Anslem College | October 1–2, 2024 | 2,104 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 47% | 44% | 3%[n] | 6% |
University of New Hampshire | September 12–16, 2024 | 1,695 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 46% | 47% | 1%[o] | 5% |
Saint Anslem College | September 11–12, 2024 | 2,241 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 46% | 43% | 5%[p] | 6% |
Primary elections held | |||||||
Emerson College[A] | November 10–13, 2023 | 917 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 40% | — | 17% |
Emerson College | August 9–11, 2023 | 837 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 37% | — | 17% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kelly Ayotte (R) |
Cinde Warmington (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College[A] | November 10–13, 2023 | 917 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 37% | 19% |
Emerson College | August 9–11, 2023 | 837 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 34% | 19% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Kelly Ayotte | 434,594 | 53.6 | ||
Democratic | Joyce Craig | 359,511 | 44.3 | ||
Libertarian | Stephen Villee | 16,844 | 2.1 | ||
Write-in | 1,021 | 0.1 | |||
Total votes | 814,810 | ||||
Turnout | |||||
Registered electors | |||||
Republican hold |
I have decided that I will not be running in this cycle.
Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster quickly ruled out running for governor next year following GOP Gov. Chris Sununu's Wednesday announcement that he wouldn't seek reelection
Former state senator Dr. Tom Sherman, who ran for governor in 2022 and who some had said could run again, told the Globe on Monday that he won't run for governor in 2024.
Governor Stephen Villee