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Elections in North Carolina |
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The 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of North Carolina. Democratic state attorney general Josh Stein and Republican lieutenant governor Mark Robinson are seeking their first term in office. The winner will succeed Democratic incumbent Roy Cooper, who is term limited. This is the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in 2024 in a state Donald Trump won in 2020.
Primary elections took place on March 5, 2024.[1] Stein won the Democratic nomination with 70% of the vote over former state Supreme Court justice Michael R. Morgan and Robinson won the Republican nomination with 65% of the vote over state treasurer Dale Folwell.
A typical swing state, North Carolina is considered to be a purple to slightly red southern state at the federal level. Both U.S. senators from the state are members of the Republican Party. Its U.S. House delegation is evenly split between Republicans and Democrats. Democrats and Republicans both hold multiple statewide offices in North Carolina. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump carried North Carolina by 1.34 percentage points, the smallest margin among the states he won.[2][3]
Incumbent Roy Cooper was first elected in 2016, defeating then-incumbent governor Pat McCrory by about 0.2 points. Cooper was re-elected in 2020 by 4.5 percentage points.[3][4]
The Democratic nominee is Josh Stein, the current state attorney general. The Republican nominee is Mark Robinson, the current lieutenant governor.[5]
The 2024 election was initially expected to be competitive due to the state's nearly even to slightly right-leaning partisan lean, the concurrent presidential election, and the seat being open due to term limits. However, Robinson has become embroiled in numerous controversies since becoming the nominee, allowing Stein to open up a large and consistent lead in polls, and most pundits consider him the favorite to win.[6]
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Chrelle Booker |
Gary Foxx |
Michael Morgan |
Josh Stein |
Marcus Williams |
Other | Undecided | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
High Point University | February 16–23, 2024 | 322 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 10% | 10% | 14% | 57% | 9% | – | – | ||||||
Change Research (D)[A] | February 15–19, 2024 | 1,622 (LV) | ± 2.6% | – | – | 8% | 49% | – | 4%[b] | 39% | ||||||
East Carolina University | February 9–12, 2024 | 1,207 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 2% | 2% | 7% | 57% | 3% | – | 29% | ||||||
Meredith College | January 26–31, 2024 | 760 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 31% | 2% | 4% | 51% | ||||||
Public Policy Polling (D) | December 15–16, 2023 | 556 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 56% | 4% | – | 32% | ||||||
Foxx joins the race | ||||||||||||||||
Williams joins the race | ||||||||||||||||
Booker joins the race | ||||||||||||||||
Meredith College | November 1–5, 2023 | 755 (RV) | ± 3.5% | – | – | 11% | 38% | – | 9% | 42% | ||||||
Meredith College | September 16–19, 2023 | 308 (RV) | ± 3.5% | – | – | 11% | 33% | – | 10% | 46% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mandy Cohen |
Jeff Jackson |
Josh Stein |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D)[A] | October 7–8, 2022 | 606 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 18% | 12% | 22% | 9% | 39% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Josh Stein | 479,026 | 69.60% | |
Democratic | Michael R. Morgan | 98,627 | 14.33% | |
Democratic | Chrelle Booker | 46,045 | 6.69% | |
Democratic | Marcus Williams | 39,257 | 5.70% | |
Democratic | Gary Foxx | 25,283 | 3.67% | |
Total votes | 688,238 | 100.0% |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Republican | Republican |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
|||||||
Dale Folwell | Mark Walker | Jesse Thomas | |||||
1 | Sep. 12, 2023 | Wake County Republican Party |
Bill LuMaye | YouTube | P | P | P |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Dale Folwell |
Bill Graham |
Mark Robinson |
Jesse Thomas |
Mark Walker |
Andy Wells |
Other | Undecided | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
High Point University | February 16–23, 2024 | 394 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 17% | 33% | 51% | 9% | – | – | – | – | |||||
Capen Analytics | February 21, 2024 | 12,580 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 29% | 18% | 53% | – | – | – | – | – | |||||
Change Research (D)[A] | February 15–19, 2024 | 1,622 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 9% | 9% | 57% | – | – | – | 3%[c] | 22% | |||||
East Carolina University | February 9–12, 2024 | 1,207 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 7% | 13% | 53% | – | – | – | – | 27% | |||||
Meredith College | January 26–31, 2024 | 760 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 4% | 9% | 34% | – | – | – | 10% | 42% | |||||
Public Policy Polling (D) | January 5–6, 2024 | 619 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 7% | 15% | 55% | – | – | – | – | 24% | |||||
Wells withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
East Carolina University | November 29 – December 1, 2023 | 445 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 7% | 8% | 34% | – | – | 3% | – | 49% | |||||
Thomas withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Meredith College | November 1–5, 2023 | 755 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 3% | 5% | 41% | 2% | – | 1% | 6% | 42% | |||||
Walker withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Graham joins the race | ||||||||||||||||
Cygnal[B] | October 8–9, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 5% | – | 49% | 1% | 4% | 1% | – | 41% | |||||
Meredith College | September 16–19, 2023 | 350 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 3% | – | 34% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 44% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Dale Folwell |
Pat McCrory |
Mark Robinson |
Thom Tillis |
Steve Troxler |
Mark Walker |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Opinion Diagnostics | June 5–7, 2023 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 4% | - | 44% | - | - | 7% | 7% | 38% |
SurveyUSA[B] | April 25–29, 2023 | 707 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 4% | - | 43% | - | 9% | 8% | - | 37% |
The Differentiators (R) | December 12, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 6% | - | 60% | - | - | - | - | 34% |
- | 21% | 60% | - | - | - | - | 19% | ||||
- | - | 58% | - | - | 8% | - | 34% | ||||
Public Policy Polling (D)[A] | October 7–8, 2022 | 606 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 4% | - | 54% | 20% | - | - | 5% | 17% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Mark Robinson | 666,504 | 64.83% | |
Republican | Dale Folwell | 196,955 | 19.16% | |
Republican | Bill Graham | 164,572 | 16.01% | |
Total votes | 1,028,031 | 100.0% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | Mike Ross | 2,910 | 59.45% | |
Libertarian | Shannon Bray | 1,985 | 40.55% | |
Total votes | 4,895 | 100.0% |
Stein and Robinson will face each other in the general election. With the backing of former President Donald Trump, Robinson has received heavy criticism from Democrats over statements on abortion rights, LGBTQ rights, and education. Robinson has also made a series of controversial statements before and after taking public office, including engaging in Holocaust denial.[47] Robinson has also received criticism from some moderate Republicans, including Senator Thom Tillis and primary opponent Dale Folwell, both of whom declined to endorse Robinson.[48] On September 17, Stein refused any potential debates with Robinson following a challenge from him.[49]
On September 19, CNN released a story detailing racist, transphobic, misogynistic, and other "disturbing comments" made by an account suspected to be Robinson on a pornography website between 2008 and 2012.[50][51] Hours later, CNN specified multiple comments made on pornography website message boards, including Robinson calling himself a "black NAZI" and expressing support for reinstating slavery.[52] The Carolina Journal had reported that earlier in the week the Trump–Vance campaign privately told Robinson that he was not welcome at rallies for Donald Trump or JD Vance.[53] This occurred on the same day as the filing deadline for North Carolina's 2024 election ballots. Before the story was released, Robinson released a video dismissing the report as "tabloid lies" and saying that he would not drop out of the race.[54] His campaign canceled events in Henderson and Norlina planned for the same day. Republican state senate nominee Scott Lassiter was the first on the ballot with Robinson to call for him to "step aside".[51] Republican North Carolina senator Ted Budd said "the allegations are concerning but we don’t have any facts".[55] That afternoon, Politico reported that an email address belonging to Robinson was registered on Ashley Madison, a website designed for people seeking affairs while married.[56] The deadline for Robinson to withdraw from the race or be removed from the ballot passed on the morning of September 20.[57]
Following CNN's report, most forecasters moved the race to Likely Democratic, while Elections Daily moved the race to Safe Democratic.[58][6][59][60]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[59] | Likely D | September 20, 2024 |
Inside Elections[61] | Likely D | September 26, 2024 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[62] | Likely D | September 19, 2024 |
RCP[63] | Likely D | September 28, 2024 |
Elections Daily[64] | Safe D | September 19, 2024 |
CNalysis[60] | Very Likely D | September 23, 2024 |
Campaign finance reports as of July 10, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Josh Stein (D) | $32,910,029 | $17,279,731 | $15,918,586 |
Mark Robinson (R) | $15,757,019 | $9,234,080 | $6,560,596 |
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections[82] |
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Josh Stein (D) |
Mark Robinson (R) |
Undecided [d] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RealClearPolitics[83] | September 17-29, 2024 | October 4, 2024 | 53.0% | 37.1% | 9.9% | Stein +15.9% |
270ToWin[84] | September 27– October 4, 2024 | October 4, 2024 | 52.8% | 36.3% | 10.9% | Stein +16.5% |
The Hill/DDHQ[85] | through September 29, 2024 | October 4, 2024 | 51.6% | 36.8% | 11.6% | Stein +14.8% |
Average | 52.5% | 36.7% | 10.8% | Stein +15.8% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Josh Stein (D) |
Mark Robinson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Quinnipiac University | September 25–29, 2024 | 953 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 53% | 41% | 2%[e] | 4% |
52% | 39% | 6%[f] | 3% | ||||
The Washington Post | September 25–29, 2024 | 1,001 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 54% | 38% | 2%[g] | 6% |
1,001 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 38% | 2%[h] | 7% | ||
High Point University | September 20–29, 2024 | 589 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 34% | 3% | 11% |
814 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 32% | 3% | 14% | ||
Emerson College[C] | September 27–28, 2024 | 850 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 52% | 33% | 4%[i] | 12% |
RMG Research[D] | September 25–27, 2024 | 780 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 38% | 5%[j] | 8% |
East Carolina University | September 23–26, 2024 | 1,005 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 33% | 5%[k] | 13% |
AtlasIntel | September 20–25, 2024 | 1,173 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 38% | 3%[l] | 5% |
CNN/SSRS | September 20–25, 2024 | 931 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 53% | 36% | 11%[m] | – |
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[E] | September 19–25, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 53% | 33% | 7%[n] | 8% |
59% | 35% | – | 6% | ||||
Fox News | September 20–24, 2024 | 787 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 56% | 41% | 1%[o] | 3% |
991 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 56% | 40% | 2%[p] | 3% | ||
Marist College | September 19–24, 2024 | 1,507 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 54% | 42% | 1%[q] | 3% |
1,348 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 54% | 43% | 1%[q] | 2% | ||
NYT/Siena College | September 17–21, 2024 | 682 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 37% | – | 16% |
682 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 36% | – | 17% | ||
Meredith College | September 18–20, 2024 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 40% | 5%[r] | 9% |
Victory Insights (R) | September 16–18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 42% | – | 11% |
Emerson College[F] | September 15–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 40% | 2%[s] | 10% |
Morning Consult | September 11–18, 2024 | 1,314 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 50% | 37% | 1% | 12% |
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/ Impact Research (D)[G] |
September 11–17, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 42% | – | 6% |
Cygnal (R)[H] | September 15–16, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.99% | 46% | 39% | 2%[t] | 13% |
Elon University | September 4–13, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.74% | 49% | 35% | 3% | 9% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[I] | September 6–9, 2024 | 495 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 33% | 3%[u] | 23% |
Quinnipiac University | September 4–8, 2024 | 940 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 54% | 42% | 1%[v] | 4% |
51% | 41% | 5%[w] | 4% | ||||
Morning Consult | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 1,369 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 37% | 2%[x] | 11% |
SurveyUSA[J] | September 4–7, 2024 | 676 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | 37% | – | 12% |
Florida Atlantic University | September 5–6, 2024 | 692 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 38% | – | 14% |
619 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 39% | – | 11% | ||
Emerson College[K] | August 25–28, 2024 | 775 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 41% | 3%[y] | 10% |
East Carolina University | August 25–28, 2024 | 920 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 41% | 1%[z] | 11% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[I] | August 25–28, 2024 | 812 (LV) | ± 3.18% | 44% | 40% | 4%[aa] | 13% |
SoCal Strategies (R)[L] | August 26–27, 2024 | 612 (LV) | – | 47% | 37% | – | 16% |
Fox News | August 23–26, 2024 | 1,026 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 43% | 2%[ab] | 1% |
ActiVote | July 26 – August 26, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 54% | 46% | – | – |
SurveyUSA/High Point University | August 19–21, 2024 | 1,053 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 34% | – | 18% |
941 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 36% | – | 14% | ||
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[I] | August 12–15, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 39% | 3%[ac] | 13% |
NYT/Siena College | August 9–14, 2024 | 655 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 38% | – | 14% |
655 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 39% | – | 12% | ||
YouGov (D)[A] | August 5–9, 2024 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 36% | 6%[ad] | 13% |
Cygnal (R) | August 4–5, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 38% | 4%[ae] | 15% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 714 (LV) | – | 43% | 38% | 3%[af] | 16% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | July 22–24, 2024 | 586 (LV) | – | 38% | 34% | 5%[ag] | 23% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[M] | July 19–20, 2024 | 573 (RV) | – | 48% | 42% | – | 10% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[I] | July 16–18, 2024 | 461 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 36% | 4%[ah] | 23% |
Spry Strategies | June 7–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 43% | – | 18% |
East Carolina University | May 31 – June 3, 2024 | 1,332 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 43% | – | 13% |
North Star Opinion Research (R)[N] | May 29 – June 2, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 44% | – | 14% |
Change Research (D)[A] | May 13–18, 2024 | 835 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 43% | – | 13% |
High Point University | May 2–9, 2024 | 804 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 34% | 39% | – | 27% |
1,002 (A) | ± 3.2% | 30% | 35% | – | 35% | ||
Cygnal (R)[O] | May 4–5, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 39% | 5%[ai] | 17% |
Emerson College | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 42% | 5%[aj] | 12% |
Meeting Street Insights (R)[P] | April 25–28, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 37% | 6%[ak] | 13% |
Meredith College | April 11–17, 2024 | 711 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 36% | – | 20% |
Cygnal (R)[B] | April 7–8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 40% | – | 18% |
Quinnipiac University | April 4–8, 2024 | 1,401 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 52% | 44% | 2%[al] | 3% |
48% | 41% | 7%[am] | 3% | ||||
High Point University | March 22–30, 2024 | 829 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 37% | 34% | – | 29% |
Marist College | March 11–14, 2024 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 47% | – | 4% |
SurveyUSA[J] | March 3–9, 2024 | 598 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 42% | – | 14% |
Cygnal (R)[B] | March 6–7, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 44% | – | 17% |
Change Research (D)[A] | February 15–19, 2024 | 1,622 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 42% | 43% | – | 15% |
East Carolina University | February 9–12, 2024 | 1,207 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 41% | 41% | – | 14% |
Meredith College | January 26–31, 2024 | 760 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 39% | 35% | – | 17% |
East Carolina University | November 29 – December 1, 2023 | 915 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 44% | – | 16% |
Meredith College | November 1–5, 2023 | 755 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 36% | – | 19% |
Change Research (D)[A] | September 1–5, 2023 | 914 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 38% | 42% | – | 20% |
Opinion Diagnostics | June 5–7, 2023 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 38% | 41% | – | 21% |
Cygnal (R)[B] | May 12–23, 2023 | 610 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 42% | – | 18% |
Change Research (D)[A] | May 5–8, 2023 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 46% | – | 11% |
Public Policy Polling (D) | March 2–3, 2023 | 704 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 44% | – | 14% |
Differentiator Data (R)[Q] | January 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 42% | 42% | – | 16% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[A] | October 7–8, 2022 | 606 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 42% | – | 14% |
Meeting Street Insights (R)[R] | May 12–16, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 48% | – | 10% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Josh Stein (D) |
Dale Folwell (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
East Carolina University | February 9–12, 2024 | 1,207 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 42% | 31% | 27% |
East Carolina University | November 29 – December 1, 2023 | 915 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 38% | 22% |
Cygnal (R)[B] | May 12–23, 2023 | 610 (LV) | ± 3.96% | 39% | 34% | 27% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Josh Stein (D) |
Bill Graham (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
East Carolina University | February 9–12, 2024 | 1,207 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 40% | 35% | 25% |
East Carolina University | November 29 – December 1, 2023 | 915 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 39% | 19% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Josh Stein (D) |
Mark Walker (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cygnal (R)[B] | May 12–23, 2023 | 610 (LV) | ± 3.96% | 39% | 37% | 24% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
High Point University | February 16–23, 2024 | 753 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 45% | 2%[an] | 7% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Josh Stein | ||||
Republican | Mark Robinson | ||||
Libertarian | Mike Ross | ||||
Green | Wayne Turner | ||||
Constitution | Vinny Smith | ||||
Total votes |
Democrats headed to the March 5 gubernatorial primary include Chrelle Booker, Mike Morgan and Marcus Williams in addition to Stein.
Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee, who chairs the RGA, is pulling his support for Robinson