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2024 Queensland state election

From Wikipedia - Reading time: 24 min

For the local government elections held in March, see 2024 Queensland local elections.
2024 Queensland state election
← 2020 26 October 2024 2028 →
All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly
47 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered3,683,368
Turnout3,231,968 (87.74%)
(Decrease0.2 pp)
  First party Second party
 
Leader David Crisafulli Steven Miles
Party Liberal National Labor
Leader since 12 November 2020 15 December 2023
Leader's seat Broadwater Murrumba
Last election 34 seats, 35.89% 52 seats, 39.57%
Seats before 35[a] 51[a]
Seats won 52 36
Seat change Increase 17 Decrease 15
First-preference vote 1,289,535 1,011,211
Percentage 41.5% 32.6%
Swing Increase 5.6 Decrease 7.0
TPP 53.8% 46.2%
TPP swing Increase 7.0 Decrease 7.0
  Third party Fourth party
 
Leader Robbie Katter No leader
Party Katter's Australian Greens
Leader since 2 February 2015
Leader's seat Traeger
Last election 3 seats, 2.48% 2 seats, 9.47%
Seats before 4[b] 2
Seats won 3 1
Seat change Decrease 1 Decrease 1
First-preference vote 75,773 307,178
Percentage 2.4% 9.9%
Swing Decrease 0.1 Increase 0.4
Winning margin by electorate.
Premier before election

Steven Miles
Labor

Subsequent Premier

David Crisafulli
Liberal National

The 2024 Queensland state election was held on 26 October 2024 to elect all members to the Legislative Assembly of Queensland pursuant to the Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015. As a result of the 2016 Queensland term length referendum, the term of the parliament will run for four years.[1][2]

The election was the first since 2006 to feature two men leading the major parties. The opposition Liberal National Party (LNP) led by David Crisafulli defeated the incumbent Labor government, led by Premier Steven Miles after three terms in government.[3] Katter's Australian Party and the Queensland Greens also held seats in parliament, while other parties that contested the election included Pauline Hanson's One Nation, Legalise Cannabis Queensland,[4] other minor parties as well as independents.

The LNP's victory was not clear until late on the night of the election count, when analysts projected Labor had lost their majority and the LNP was on track to form a majority government.[5] Crisafulli declared victory in a late-night speech following the close of polls, however Miles initially held back on conceding pending further counting in several seats, though by the following morning he conceded defeat at a press conference.[6][7]

The LNP won 52 seats in the assembly (enough for a six-seat majority), with a positive swing of over five and a half percentage points on first-preference (primary) votes translating into a net 17-seat gain. Labor by contrast had a swing against them of seven percent, losing a net 15 seats and leaving them on 36 seats. Katter's Australian Party (KAP) retained three of their seats, though former One Nation MP Stephen Andrew, who joined KAP six weeks prior to the election and boosted the party's seat figure in parliament to four, lost the seat of Mirani to the LNP. The Greens were targeting victories in multiple seats throughout metropolitan Brisbane after strong performances at the 2022 federal election,[8] however their primary vote stagnated and the party's representation in parliament was halved, winning only one seat (Maiwar). Independent Sandy Bolton retained the seat of Noosa.[9]

Crisafulli was sworn in as Queensland's 41st Premier by Governor Jeannette Young on 28 October, alongside his deputy Jarrod Bleijie.[10] The pair formed an interim ministry, with the full ministry sworn in later in the week.[11]

Electoral system

[edit]

Queensland has compulsory voting and uses full-preference preferential voting for single-member electorates. The election is conducted by the Electoral Commission of Queensland. The party or coalition that wins the majority of seats (at least 47) forms the government. If no majority emerges, then the party or coalition that is able to command the confidence of the Legislative Assembly forms government as a minority government.

The party or coalition that wins the second-highest number of seats forms the opposition, with the remaining parties and independent candidates being allocated to the cross bench.

The Queensland Parliament is the only unicameral state parliament in Australia, composed of the Legislative Assembly. The upper house, the Legislative Council, was abolished in 1922.

Key dates

[edit]

The election will be for all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly. Pursuant to Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015 Queensland has fixed terms, with all elections following the 2020 election held every four years on the last Saturday of October.[12] The Governor may call an election earlier than scheduled if the Government does not maintain confidence, or the annual appropriation bill fails to pass.

  • Issue of election writ – Tuesday 1 October 2024, by the Governor of Queensland.
  • Candidate nominations period – Wednesday 2 October to Tuesday 8 October 2024 at 12pm, local time.
  • Ballot paper order draw – Tuesday 8 October 2024 at 2.30pm.
  • Early voting period – Monday 14 October to Friday 25 October 2024 from 8am–6pm (excluding the weekend).
  • Postal vote applications close – Monday 14 October 2024 at 7pm.
  • Election Day – Saturday 26 October 2024 (from 8am–6pm).
  • Postal vote return deadline – Tuesday 5 November 2024.[13]

Background

[edit]

After suffering a landslide defeat at the 2012 state election, the Labor Party achieved a 37-seat swing and returned to power in Queensland at the 2015 state election under the leadership of Annastacia Palaszczuk. Initially forming a minority government, they later won a majority at the 2017 state election, and further increased their number of seats in 2020 at an election overshadowed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Palaszczuk resigned as Premier in December 2023 and was succeeded by her deputy, Steven Miles.[14] On 16 March 2024, the first elections during his leadership, two by-elections, were held in Inala and Ipswich West.[15] Despite being held by safe margins of 28.2% and 14.3% respectively, a massive swing against the Labor party was recorded in both seats, resulting in the margin in Inala being cut by more than 20%, and the loss of Ipswich West to the LNP.[16]

Registered parties

[edit]

The following parties are registered with Queensland Electoral Commission:[17]

Campaign

[edit]

The LNP campaigned heavily on four key issues, which it has labelled as crises: crime (particularly youth crime), cost-of-living, housing affordability and health. Crisafulli credited Labor's poor results at by-elections, held in March 2024, with voters' anger over Labor's handling of those key issues.[18] After what Miles described as a "very bad result" for Labor at the two state by-elections, he accused the LNP of "sensationalising and politicising" crime to win votes.[19]

Opinion polling and betting odds had the LNP as the firm favourites to win the election in a landslide, with Miles himself conceding that it was "very likely" that Labor would lose the election, whilst also criticising Crisafulli's "small target strategy" and claiming he had a lack of plans despite likely becoming the state's next Premier.[20] An opinion poll conducted by YouGov and released on 26 April 2024 saw Labor record a two-party-preferred vote of just 44%, while Miles had a net negative approval rating of –22%, marking the worst opinion poll result for a Queensland Premier in 20 years.[21]

In August 2024, Miles announced a policy of state-owned petrol stations,[22][23][24] while Crisafulli promised to re-introduce optional preferential voting, which was previously used in Queensland from 1992 to 2015, and is currently used at a state level in New South Wales and Tasmania.[25]

The lack of affordable rentals, and rent increases emerged as a major issue over the campaign. In Brisbane, median advertised rents increased by 49 per cent from the start of the COVID pandemic to December 2023.[26]

On 26 September Miles suggested Labor would consider introducing a cap of 10% on the amount rent can increase each year.[27] Miles subsequently came under pressure by property industry lobbyists to rule out the policy, with Queensland Greens MP, Amy MacMahon commenting “Make no mistake, the only reason Labor is finally considering something they've opposed for years is because they're under massive pressure from the Greens this election,”.[28] Support for rent caps was expressed by social housing peak body Queensland Shelter.

A YouGov poll commissioned by the Queensland Greens published by Seven News on 2 October and the Courier Mail 3 October indicated 54% of Queenslanders polled supported rent increases being capped at 1% annually, with 60% of Labor voters, 44% of LNP voters and 70% of Greens voters supporting the policy.[29]

A leaders debate was held on the 3rd of October broadcast by Channel 9, 4BC radio and the Brisbane Times.[30] An online reader poll with 64,000 votes conducted by the Brisbane Times declared opposition Leader David Crisafulli won the debate with 57% of the vote.[31]

Miles and Crisafulli ruled out introducing a rent cap during the leaders debate.[32]

In 2 October 2024, Labor's Miles announced a policy of a state-owned energy retailer.[33][34] On 13 October 2024, Labor announced a policy of Free school meals.[35]

A second leaders debate between the LNP and ALP leaders was held on the 16th of October.

A final leaders debate between the ALP and LNP leaders was hosted by Sky News and The Courier-Mail People’s Forum on October 22.[36] The debate consisted of 100 undecided voters picked by YouGov, who would then be chosen to ask questions to the leaders. The results of the debate are as follows: 39% Miles, 35% Crisafulli, and 26% still undecided.[37]

Controversy

[edit]

Certain individual candidates attracted controversy during the course of the campaign, in particular for insensitivity regarding Nazi symbolism.[38][39][40]

Results

[edit]
Main articles: Results of the 2024 Queensland state election; Post-election pendulum for the 2024 Queensland state election; and Members of the Queensland Legislative Assembly, 2024–2028
36 1 1 3 52
ALP GRN IND KAP LNP
Legislative Assembly (IRV) – Turnout TBD (CV)[9][41][42]
Party Votes % Swing Seats +/–
  Liberal National 1,289,535 41.52 +5.63 52 Increase 17
  Labor 1,011,211 32.56 −7.01 36 Decrease 15
  Greens 307,178 9.89 +0.42 1 Decrease 1
  One Nation 248,334 8.00 +0.88 0 Steady
  Katter's Australian 75,773 2.44 –0.08 3 Decrease 1
  Family First 57,826 1.86 +1.86 0 Steady
  Independents 52,657 1.69 −0.79 1 Steady
  Legalise Cannabis 49,621 1.60 +0.69 0 Steady
  Animal Justice 9,669 0.31 −0.03 0 Steady
  Libertarian 4,141 0.13 +0.13 0 Steady
 Formal votes 3,105,945 96.10 −0.50
 Informal votes 126,023 3.90 +0.50
 Total 3,231,968 100 93
 Registered voters / turnout 3,683,368 87.74 −0.17
Two-party-preferred vote
Liberal National TBD 53.8 Increase 7.0
Labor TBD 46.2 Decrease 7.0

Seats changing hands

[edit]

Members in italics did not recontest their seats.

Seat Pre-election Swing Post-election
Party Member Margin Margin Member Party
Barron River Labor Craig Crawford 3.1 6.8 3.7 Bree James Liberal National
Caloundra Labor Jason Hunt 2.5 4.3 1.8 Kendall Morton Liberal National
Capalaba Labor Don Brown 9.8 11.7 1.9 Russell Field Liberal National
Cook Labor Cynthia Lui 6.3 11.2 5.0 David Kempton Liberal National
Hervey Bay Labor Adrian Tantari 2.0 10.4 8.4 David Lee Liberal National
Ipswich West Liberal National Darren Zanow[c] 14.4 (ALP) 10.4 (LNP) 3.9 Wendy Bourne Labor
Keppel Labor Brittany Lauga 5.6 16.1 10.5 Nigel Hutton Liberal National
Mackay Labor Julieanne Gilbert 6.7 17.2 10.4 Nigel Dalton Liberal National
Maryborough Labor Bruce Saunders 11.9 14.6 2.7 John Barounis Liberal National
Mirani Katter's Australian Stephen Andrew[d] 9.0 (ONP) 50.9 0.9 Glen Kelly Liberal National
Mulgrave Labor Curtis Pitt 12.2 15.4 3.1 Terry James Liberal National
Mundingburra Labor Les Walker 3.9 13.3 9.4 Janelle Poole Liberal National
Nicklin Labor Robert Skelton 0.1 2.8 2.7 Marty Hunt Liberal National
Pumicestone Labor Ali King 5.3 5.7 0.4 Ariana Doolan Liberal National
Redcliffe Labor Yvette D'Ath 6.1 9.2 3.1 Kerri-Anne Dooley Liberal National
Redlands Labor Kim Richards 3.9 5.8 1.9 Rebecca Young Liberal National
Rockhampton Labor Barry O'Rourke 8.6 10.4 1.8 Donna Kirkland Liberal National
South Brisbane Greens Amy MacMahon 5.3 11.4 6.1 Barbara O'Shea Labor
Thuringowa Labor Aaron Harper 3.2 13.2 9.9 Natalie Marr Liberal National
Townsville Labor Scott Stewart 3.1 8.7 5.6 Adam Baillie Liberal National

Candidates

[edit]
Main article: Candidates of the 2024 Queensland state election

A total of 525 candidates from nine political parties (or independent) will contest the election. It is the second-most contested election by nominated candidates in Queensland history, behind the previous election (2020).[43][44]

Crisafulli began announcing LNP candidates 18 months prior to the election, making the LNP the first party to formally endorse candidates for the election.[45] The LNP announced several other candidates afterwards. The second party to formally endorse a candidate was Katter's Australian Party (KAP), announcing their candidate for the Far North Queensland seat of Cook on 6 October 2023.[46]

Labor, the LNP, and the Greens have announced candidates in all 93 electorates.[47] Pauline Hanson announced 2 October her One Nation Party would also be contesting every seat.[48]

Preferences

[edit]

Candidates and parties may publish recommendations to voters on How-to-vote cards and other materials indicating how that candidate or party suggests a voter should order their ballot under the state's full-preference instant-runoff voting system. Voters must number every candidate on the ballot paper to cast a formal vote. A candidate or party cannot determine the order a vote is distributed for a voter. Preference deals refer to parties or candidates agreeing to order recommendations on each other's how-to-vote materials that are favourable to the other.

Liberal National

[edit]

In late 2023, it was reported in The Australian that Leader of the Opposition David Crisafulli considered preferencing the Greens over Labor at the upcoming state election.[49] Crisafulli told the newspaper: "Now, the same doesn't happen on the other side of the draw – the preferences on the right don't flow in the same way that the Greens' preferences flow to Labor," adding: "So it is a corrupt system... and I have a big concern about the prospect of a Labor–Greens coalition. They will say no deals... but they've said that before and they then broke the promise anyway. So I am deeply concerned by that."[49]

On 1 October 2024, the LNP officially announced they would preference Labor over the Greens at the state election.[50]

One Nation

[edit]

One Nation leader and federal Senator for Queensland, Pauline Hanson, confirmed in February 2024 that One Nation would preference the LNP over Labor in every seat, despite her reported distrust of both major parties.[51]

Labor

[edit]

Retiring Labor MP and Attorney-General Yvette D’Ath claimed on 24 August the that the Greens were "happy to do deals" with the LNP to get more members elected to parliament. While Ms D'Ath issued a plea to voters to not replace Labor MPs with Greens members, she refused to concede that the polling showed a progressive swing among inner-city residents.[52]

Labor is giving preferences to Legalise Cannabis ahead of the Greens in 28 seats.[53]

Greens

[edit]

The Queensland Greens had previously ruled out doing any preference deal with the LNP in 2024.[54]

Katter

[edit]

The Katter's Australian Party will give its preference to the LNP in North Queensland seats.[55]

Retiring members

[edit]

Labor

[edit]

Liberal National

[edit]

Electoral pendulum

[edit]

Pre-election pendulum

[edit]
Extended content

This is a pre-election pendulum for the 2024 Queensland state election. Members in italics are not contesting the election. By-elections were held in four seats during this term of Parliament that changed their margins. See the footnotes for details.

Government seats
Marginal
Bundaberg Tom Smith ALP 0.01
Nicklin Robert Skelton ALP 0.1
Hervey Bay Adrian Tantari ALP 2.0
Caloundra Jason Hunt ALP 2.5
Barron River Craig Crawford ALP 3.1
Townsville Scott Stewart ALP 3.1
Thuringowa Aaron Harper ALP 3.2
Redlands Kim Richards ALP 3.9
Mundingburra Les Walker ALP 3.9
Aspley Bart Mellish ALP 5.2
Pumicestone Ali King ALP 5.3
Cairns Michael Healy ALP 5.6
Keppel Brittany Lauga ALP 5.6
Fairly safe
Redcliffe Yvette D'Ath ALP 6.1
Cook Cynthia Lui ALP 6.3
Inala Margie Nightingale ALP 6.7 [i]
Mackay Julieanne Gilbert ALP 6.7
Pine Rivers Nikki Boyd ALP 6.7
Mansfield Corrine McMillan ALP 6.8
Gaven Meaghan Scanlon ALP 7.8
Springwood Mick de Brenni ALP 8.3
Rockhampton Barry O'Rourke ALP 8.6
Macalister Melissa McMahon ALP 9.5
Capalaba Don Brown ALP 9.8
Safe
Cooper Jonty Bush ALP 10.5
Ferny Grove Mark Furner ALP 11.0
McConnel Grace Grace ALP 11.1
Murrumba Steven Miles ALP 11.3
Bulimba Di Farmer ALP 11.4
Maryborough Bruce Saunders ALP 11.9
Stafford Jimmy Sullivan ALP 11.9
Mulgrave Curtis Pitt ALP 12.2
Mount Ommaney Jess Pugh ALP 12.6
Bancroft Chris Whiting ALP 12.8
Kurwongbah Shane King ALP 13.1
Greenslopes Joe Kelly ALP 13.2
Logan Linus Power ALP 13.4
Lytton Joan Pease ALP 13.4
Miller Mark Bailey ALP 13.8
Stretton James Martin ALP 13.9 [ii]
Toohey Peter Russo ALP 14.4
Nudgee Leanne Linard ALP 15.1
Waterford Shannon Fentiman ALP 16.0
Ipswich Jennifer Howard ALP 16.5
Morayfield Mark Ryan ALP 16.7
Jordan Charis Mullen ALP 17.1
Sandgate Stirling Hinchliffe ALP 17.3
Algester Leeanne Enoch ALP 17.8
Bundamba Lance McCallum ALP v ONP 20.7
Gladstone Glenn Butcher ALP 23.5
Woodridge Cameron Dick ALP 26.2
Non-government seats
Marginal
Currumbin Laura Gerber LNP 0.5
Coomera Michael Crandon LNP 1.1
Burleigh Michael Hart LNP 1.2
Chatsworth Steve Minnikin LNP 1.3
Glass House Andrew Powell LNP 1.6
Clayfield Tim Nicholls LNP 1.6
Everton Tim Mander LNP 2.2
Whitsunday Amanda Camm LNP 3.3
Theodore Mark Boothman LNP 3.3
Ipswich West Darren Zanow LNP 3.5 [iii]
Moggill Christian Rowan LNP 3.6
Ninderry Dan Purdie LNP 4.1
Mermaid Beach Ray Stevens LNP 4.4
Oodgeroo Mark Robinson LNP 4.5
Buderim Brent Mickelberg LNP 5.3
Southport Rob Molhoek LNP 5.4
Fairly safe
Burdekin Dale Last LNP 7.0
Toowoomba North Trevor Watts LNP 7.3
Gympie Tony Perrett LNP 8.5
Maroochydore Fiona Simpson LNP 9.1
Kawana Jarrod Bleijie LNP 9.3
Safe
Bonney Sam O'Connor LNP 10.1
Mudgeeraba Ros Bates LNP 10.1
Toowoomba South David Janetzki LNP 10.2
Burnett Stephen Bennett LNP 10.8
Scenic Rim Jon Krause LNP 11.4
Lockyer Jim McDonald LNP 11.5
Nanango Deb Frecklington LNP 12.2
Southern Downs James Lister LNP 14.1
Surfers Paradise John-Paul Langbroek LNP 16.2
Broadwater David Crisafulli LNP 16.6
Gregory Lachlan Millar LNP 17.2
Condamine Pat Weir LNP 19.2
Callide Bryson Head LNP 21.7 [iv]
Warrego Ann Leahy LNP 23.1
Crossbench seats
South Brisbane Amy MacMahon GRN v ALP 5.3
Maiwar Michael Berkman GRN v LNP 6.3
Mirani Stephen Andrew ONP v ALP 9.0
Hinchinbrook Nick Dametto KAP v LNP 14.8
Noosa Sandy Bolton IND v LNP 15.8
Hill Shane Knuth KAP v ALP 22.5
Traeger Robbie Katter KAP v ALP 24.7
Notes
  1. ^ In 2024 there was a by-election after Annastacia Palaszczuk resigned from her seat. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.
  2. ^ In 2021 there was a by-election after the death of Duncan Pegg. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.
  3. ^ In 2024 there was a by-election after Labor MP Jim Madden resigned from his seat. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.
  4. ^ In 2022 there was a by-election after Colin Boyce was elected to the seat of Flynn in the 2022 Australian Federal Election. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.

Post-election pendulum

[edit]
Extended content
Government seats (52)
Marginal
Pumicestone Ariana Doolan LNP 0.4%
Mirani Glen Kelly LNP 1.0% v KAP
Caloundra Kendall Morton LNP 1.8%
Rockhampton Donna Kirkland LNP 1.8%
Redlands Rebecca Young LNP 1.9%
Capalaba Russell Field LNP 1.9%
Mulgrave Terry James LNP 2.7%
Nicklin Marty Hunt LNP 2.7%
Maryborough John Barounis LNP 2.8%
Redcliffe Kerri-Anne Dooley LNP 2.9%
Clayfield Tim Nicholls LNP 3.5%
Barron River Bree James LNP 3.7%
Cook David Kempton LNP 5.0%
Everton Tim Mander LNP 5.3%
Townsville Adam Baillie LNP 5.6%
Moggill Christian Rowan LNP 5.6%
Fairly safe
Hervey Bay David Lee LNP 8.4%
Chatsworth Steve Minnikin LNP 8.5%
Mundingburra Janelle Poole LNP 9.2%
Buderim Brent Mickelberg LNP 9.3%
Thuringowa Natalie Marr LNP 9.9%
Safe
Coomera Michael Crandon LNP 10.0%
Glass House Andrew Powell LNP 10.2%
Mackay Nigel Dalton LNP 10.2%
Ninderry Dan Purdie LNP 10.5%
Keppel Nigel Hutton LNP 10.5%
Maroochydore Fiona Simpson LNP 10.9%
Southport Rob Molhoek LNP 11.2%
Oodgeroo Amanda Stoker LNP 11.8%
Currumbin Laura Gerber LNP 12.3%
Kawana Jarrod Bleijie LNP 12.7%
Burleigh Hermann Vorster LNP 12.8%
Theodore Mark Boothman LNP 13.0%
Toowoomba South David Janetzki LNP 13.0%
Mermaid Beach Ray Stevens LNP 13.1%
Bonney Sam O'Connor LNP 13.7%
Mudgeeraba Ros Bates LNP 13.9%
Gympie Tony Perrett LNP 14.8%
Burnett Stephen Bennett LNP 15.4%
Burderkin Dale Last LNP 15.8%
Scenic Rim Jon Krause LNP 16.1%
Toowoomba North Trevor Watts LNP 16.5%
Whitsunday Amanda Camm LNP 18.5%
Southern Downs James Lister LNP 18.6% v ONP
Lockyer Jim McDonald LNP 19.2%
Very safe
Gregory Sean Dillon LNP 21.0%
Broadwater David Crisafulli LNP 21.3%
Nanango Deb Frecklington LNP 22.9%
Surfers Paradise John-Paul Langbroek LNP 23.1%
Callide Bryson Head LNP 23.2%
Condamine Pat Weir LNP 23.6%
Warrego Ann Leahy LNP 27.9%
Non-government seats (36)
Marginal
Aspley Bart Mellish ALP 0.04%
Gaven Meaghan Scanlon ALP 0.7%
Pine Rivers Nikki Boyd ALP 0.7%
Bundaberg Tom Smith ALP 1.5%
Macalister Melissa McMahon ALP 1.9%
Springwood Mick de Brenni ALP 2.1%
Cairns Michael Healy ALP 2.5%
Lytton Joan Pease ALP 3.0%
Ipswich West Wendy Bourne ALP 3.9%
Logan Linus Power ALP 4.3%
Mansfield Corrine McMillan ALP 4.9%
Stafford Jimmy Sullivan ALP 5.3%
Kurwongbah Shane King ALP 5.9%
Fairly safe
Bancroft Chris Whiting ALP 6.0%
South Brisbane Barbara O'Shea ALP 6.1% v GRN
Morayfield Mark Ryan ALP 7.1%
Mount Ommaney Jess Pugh ALP 7.3%
Algester Leeanne Enoch ALP 7.5%
Ferny Grove Mark Furner ALP 7.9%
Bulimba Di Farmer ALP 8.2%
McConnel Grace Grace ALP 8.8%
Ipswich Jennifer Howard ALP 8.9%
Toohey Peter Russo ALP 9.0%
Gladstone Glenn Butcher ALP 9.2%
Stretton James Martin ALP 9.5%
Sandgate Bisma Asif ALP 9.6%
Murrumba Steven Miles ALP 9.8%
Greenslopes Joe Kelly ALP 9.8%
Safe
Jordan Charis Mullen ALP 10.0%
Miller Mark Bailey ALP 10.6%
Cooper Jonty Bush ALP 11.2%
Waterford Shannon Fentiman ALP 11.3%
Nudgee Leanne Linard ALP 12.0%
Inala Margie Nightingale ALP 12.6%
Bundamba Lance McCallum ALP 13.8%
Woodridge Cameron Dick ALP 18.3%
Crossbench seats (5)
Maiwar Michael Berkman GRN 3.4% v LNP
Noosa Sandy Bolton IND 8.5% v LNP
Hinchinbrook Nick Dametto KAP 13.2% v LNP
Hill Shane Knuth KAP 13.7% v LNP
Traeger Robbie Katter KAP 13.7% v LNP

Opinion polling

[edit]

In the lead-up to the state election, polling companies conduct regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, and contain an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They also ask questions about the electorates' views on major party leaders.

Some polls do not publish a two-party-preferred result. In these cases, the result has been manually calculated from preference flows at the 2020 election.

Voting intention

[edit]
Legislative Assembly polling
Date Firm Sample Primary vote 2pp vote
ALP LNP GRN ONP KAP OTH ALP LNP
26 October 2024 election 32.6% 41.5% 9.9% 8.0% 2.4% 5.6% 46.2% 53.8%
24 October 2024 uComms[65] 3,651 33.6% 39.3% 12.9% 7.8% 2.9% 3.5% 49% 51%
18–24 October 2024 Newspoll[66] 1,151 33% 42% 11% 8% — 6% 47.5% 52.5%
14–19 October 2024 Resolve Strategic[67] 1,003 32% 40% 11% 9% 2% 6% 47% 53%
10–16 October 2024 YouGov[68] 1,503 31% 41% 11% 11% 1% 5% 45% 55%
15 October 2024 The Courier-Mail (Exit Poll)[69] 1,000 30% 48.2% 8.6% 7.3% 1.5% 4.4% 42% 58%
26–29 September 2024 Freshwater Strategy[70] 1,062 30% 43% 12% 8% — 7% 44% 56%
12–18 September 2024 Newspoll[71] 1,047 30% 42% 12% 8% — 8% 45% 55%
June – September 2024 Resolve Strategic[72] 939 23% 44% 12% 8% 1% 12% 41.5% 58.5%
6–29 August 2024 Wolf & Smith[73][74] 1,724 24% 42% 12% 8% 3% 11% 43% 57%
May – August 2024 RedBridge[75] 829 29% 42% 11% — — 18% 45.5% 54.5%
8–15 July 2024 YouGov[76] 1,019 26% 43% 14% 13% 1% 3% 43% 57%
February – May 2024 RedBridge[77][78] 880 28% 47% 12% — — 13% 43% 57%
February – May 2024 Resolve Strategic[79][80] 947 26% 43% 13% 8% 1% 9% 44.5% 55.5%
9–17 April 2024 YouGov[81] 1,092 27% 44% 15% 10% 1% 3% 44% 56%
16 March 2024 The local government elections are held, LNP wins Ipswich West by-election and Labor holds its seat in Inala.
7–13 March 2024 Newspoll[82] 1,037 30% 42% 13% 8% — 7% 46% 54%
13 February 2024 uComms[83][84] 1,743 34.2% 37.3% 12.2% 7.7% 3.9% 4.7% 50% 50%
26 December 2023 uComms[85] 1,911 34.4% 36.2% — — — — 49% 51%
15 December 2023 Steven Miles is elected Leader of Queensland Labor; sworn in as Premier of Queensland.
13 December 2023 uComms[86] 1,143 34% 38.2% 11.9% 7.8% 3.3% 4.8% 48% 52%
10 December 2023 Annastacia Palaszczuk announces her intention to resign as Leader of Queensland Labor and Premier of Queensland.
September – December 2023 Resolve Strategic[87][88] 940 33% 37% 12% 8% — 10% 49.5% 50.5%
4–10 October 2023 YouGov[89] 1,013 33% 41% 13% 8% 2% 3% 48% 52%
26 August – 6 September 2023 RedBridge[90][91][92][93] 2,012 26% 41% 14% 9% — 10% 45% 55%
May – August 2023 Resolve Strategic[94] 943 32% 38% 11% 8% 1% 10%[e] 48% 52%
29 June – 2 July 2023 Freshwater Strategy[95] 1,065 34% 40% 11% — — 15% 49% 51%
17 January – 17 April 2023 Resolve Strategic[96] 943 35% 33% 12% 7% 1% 11%[f] 52.5% 47.5%
30 March – 5 April 2023 YouGov[97] 1,015 33% 39% 13% 10% 2% — 49% 51%
1–8 December 2022 YouGov[98] ~1,000 34% 38% 13% 11% — 4% 50% 50%
21 August – 4 December 2022 Resolve Strategic[99] 924 37% 35% 11% 6% 1% 10%[g] 53.2% 46.8%
23–30 June 2022 YouGov[100] ~1,000 34% 38% 14% 10% 1% 3% 50% 50%
18–23 February 2022 YouGov[101] ~1,000 39% 38% 10% 8% 1% 4% 52% 48%
31 October 2020 election 39.6% 35.9% 9.5% 7.1% 2.5% 5.7% 53.2% 46.8%

Preferred Premier and satisfaction

[edit]

Preferred Premier

[edit]
Date Polling firm Sample Preferred Premier
Miles Crisafulli Don't know
18–24 October 2024 Newspoll[102] 1,151 45% 42% 13%
14–19 October 2024 Resolve Strategic[67] 1,003 37% 39% 24%
10–16 October 2024 YouGov[68] 1,503 36% 37% 27%
26–29 September 2024 Freshwater Strategy[70] 1,062 38% 46% 16%
12–18 September 2024 Newspoll[71] 1,047 39% 46% 15%
June – September 2024 Resolve Strategic[72] 939 27% 40% 33%
8–15 July 2024 YouGov[103] 1,019 29% 40% 31%
February – May 2024 Resolve Strategic[79] 947 28% 39% 33%
9–17 April 2024 YouGov[104] 1,092 27% 40% 33%
7–13 March 2024 Newspoll[103] 1,037 37% 43% 20%
13 February 2024 uComms[83][84] 1,743 49% 51% —
26 December 2023 uComms[85] 1,911 47.8% 52.2% —
Date Polling firm Sample Preferred Premier
Palaszczuk Crisafulli Don't know
September – December 2023 Resolve Strategic[87][88] 940 34% 39% 27%
10 November 2023 SEC Newgate[105] 600 30% 34% 36%
4–10 October 2023 YouGov[89] 1,013 35% 37% 28%
December 2023 Resolve Strategic[87][88] 940 34% 39% 27%
May – August 2023 Resolve Strategic[94] 943 36% 37% 27%
29 June – 2 July 2023 AFR/Freshwater Strategy[95] 1,065 44% 45% 11%
17 January – 17 April 2023 Resolve Strategic[96] 943 39% 31% 31%
30 March – 5 April 2023 YouGov[97] 1,015 31% 29% 40%
1–8 December 2022 YouGov[98] ~1,000 39% 28% 33%
21 August – 4 December 2022 Resolve Strategic[99] 924 42% 30% 28%
23–30 June 2022 YouGov[100] ~1,000 41% 28% 31%

Satisfaction ratings

[edit]
Date Polling firm Sample Miles Crisafulli
Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net
18–24 October 2024 Newspoll[106] 1,151 45% 48% 7% –3% 43% 46% 11% –3%
14–19 October 2024 Resolve Strategic[67] 1,003 — — — +8% — — — +7%
10–16 October 2024 YouGov[68] 1,503 34% 44% 22% –10% 38% 32% 30% +6%
4–16 October 2024 RedBridge Group[107] 2,315 35% 44% 21% –9% 40% 31% 29% +9%
12–18 September 2024 Newspoll[71] 1,047 41% 51% 8% –10% 49% 37% 14% +12%
June – September 2024 Resolve Strategic[72] 939 — — — –13% — — — +18%
May – August 2024 RedBridge[75] 829 — — — –12% — — — +14%
8–15 July 2024 YouGov[103] 1,019 31% 44% 25% –13% 40% 23% 37% +17%
February – May 2024 RedBridge[77][78] 880 — — — –11% — — — +14%
February – May 2024 Resolve Strategic[79] 947 — — — –15% — — — +14%
9–17 April 2024 YouGov[104] 1,092 25% 47% 28% –22% 40% 26% 34% +14%
7–13 March 2024 Newspoll[103] 1,037 38% 49% 13% –11% 47% 33% 20% +14%
13 February 2024 uComms[83][84] 1,743 44.2% 25.2% 25.2% +19% 41.7% 18.7% 31.2% +23%
13 December 2023 uComms[86] 1,143 38.4% 25.9% 35.6% +12.5% — — — —
Date Polling firm Sample Palaszczuk Crisafulli
Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net
September – December 2023 Resolve Strategic[87][88] 940 — — — –17% — — — +9%
4–10 October 2023 YouGov[89] 1,013 32% 52% 16% –20% 37% 26% 37% +11%
September – December 2023 Resolve Strategic[87][88] 940 — — — –17% — — — +9%
May – August 2023 Resolve Strategic[94] 943 — — — –15% — — — +7%
29 June – 2 July 2023 AFR/Freshwater Strategy[95] 1,065 39% 47% 14% –8% — — — —
1–8 December 2022 YouGov[98] ~1,000 40% 41% 19% –1% 31% 27% 42% +4%
23–30 June 2022 YouGov[100] ~1,000 45% 30% 16% +15% 31% 23% 46% +8%
18–23 February 2022 YouGov[101] ~1,000 50% 36% 14% +14% — — — —

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b Labor lost the seat of Ipswich West to the LNP at a by-election in 2024, increasing the LNP's seat total to 35 and decreasing Labor's seat total to 51.
  2. ^ MP for Mirani Stephen Andrew left One Nation after being disendorsed, and joined the KAP shortly thereafter.
  3. ^ Zanow was elected at the 2024 Ipswich West state by-election after the resignation of Labor MP Jim Madden. The LNP's margin at the by-election was 3.5%.
  4. ^ Andrew was elected as a One Nation member but left to join Katter's Australian Party (KAP) after his disendorsement.
  5. ^ Independents: 8%, Other parties: 2%
  6. ^ Independents: 10%, Other parties: 1%
  7. ^ Independents: 7%, Other parties: 3%

References

[edit]
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