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2024 United States Senate election in Arizona

From Wikipedia - Reading time: 29 min

For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.
Not to be confused with 2024 Arizona Senate election.

2024 United States Senate election in Arizona
← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
 
Nominee Ruben Gallego Kari Lake
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,676,335 1,595,761
Percentage 50.06% 47.65%
County results
Gallego:      50–60%      60–70%
Lake:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Kyrsten Sinema
Independent

Elected U.S. senator

Ruben Gallego
Democratic

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The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona. Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego defeated Republican former news journalist Kari Lake to succeed independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, who did not seek a second term.[1]

Sinema, who was elected as a Democrat, was considered vulnerable to a primary challenge due to frequently opposing her party's legislative agenda. After preparing a re-election bid as an independent, Sinema announced she would retire from the senate.[2][1] Lake, the Republican nominee in the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election, won her party's nomination with 55% of the vote against Pinal County sheriff Mark Lamb. The election was considered among the most competitive Senate races in 2024.[3]

Most polls and ratings had Gallego as the slight favorite to win.[4][5] Gallego defeated Lake by just over 2 percentage points, a closer race than polls had projected for most of the campaign. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's wider-than-expected victory in the state likely contributed to this, but there was also a significant amount of ticket splitting for Gallego and Trump. This marked the fourth consecutive election cycle in which Democrats won a Senate election in Arizona. This was the first time that Arizona voted for candidates of different political parties for U.S. senator and president since Democrat Dennis DeConcini was reelected as Republican George H. W. Bush carried the state in 1988.

Gallego will also be Arizona's first Latino U.S. Senator.[6]

Background

[edit]

Arizona was once considered a Republican stronghold, but has become a critical swing state. Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. As of May 2024, Democrats control the governorship, most other statewide offices, and both U.S. Senate seats, while Republicans control both houses of the Arizona State Legislature and a 6-3 majority of Arizona's U.S. House delegation.[7][8] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016,[9] while Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in 2020.[10]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Prior to her departure from the Democratic Party, Sinema was considered highly vulnerable to a primary challenge due to her opposition to several parts of the Democratic Party's legislative agenda. Prospective polling showed Sinema trailing all of her potential challengers by wide margins, with U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego being viewed by numerous political analysts as the frontrunner to challenge her.[11] On January 22, 2022, the Arizona Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly to censure Sinema for a second time for voting against a carve-out to the Senate filibuster rule in a Democratic-led effort to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act.[12] Sinema did not support the Inflation Reduction Act until after Democratic leaders agreed to remove a provision closing the so-called carried interest tax loophole, the closure of which would have raised taxes on hedge fund owners and investment managers.[13] This action renewed calls from Democrats for Sinema to face a primary opponent in her next election.[14]

Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and registered as an independent, while continuing to be counted as part of the Senate Democratic Caucus.[2]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Ruben Gallego
Federal officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Political parties
Labor unions
Organizations
Tribes

Polling

[edit]
Hypothetical polling
Ruben Gallego vs. Alexander Keller
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ruben
Gallego 		Alexander
Keller 		Other Undecided
Emerson College August 2–4, 2023 571 (LV) – 48% 6% 6%[b] 40%
Ruben Gallego vs. Kate Gallego vs. Kathy Hoffman vs. Regina Romero vs. Kyrsten Sinema vs. Greg Stanton
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kate
Gallego 		Ruben
Gallego 		Kathy
Hoffman 		Regina
Romero 		Kyrsten
Sinema 		Greg
Stanton 		Undecided
Data for Progress (D) January 21–24, 2022 673 (LV) ± 4.0% – 74% – – 16% – 10%
– 66% – – 17% – 17%
OH Predictive Insights November 1–8, 2021 229 (RV) ± 6.5% – 47% – – 24% – 29%
– – 44% – 24% – 32%
– – – – 25% 47% 28%
Data for Progress (D)[A] October 8–10, 2021 467 (LV) ± 5.0% 9% 23% – 9% 19% 13% 26%
60% – – – 25% – 15%
– 62% – – 23% – 15%
– – – 55% 26% – 19%
– – – – 24% 59% 17%

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[67]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ruben Gallego 498,927 100.0%
Total votes 498,927 100.0%

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Kari Lake
U.S. presidents
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State officials
State senators
State representatives
Organizations
Individuals
Mark Lamb
Organizations

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of July 10, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Kari Lake $10,352,741 $8,290,053 $2,062,687
Mark Lamb $2,059,130 $1,795,730 $263,400
Source: Federal Election Commission[110]

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kari
Lake 		Mark
Lamb 		Other Undecided
Noble Predictive Insights July 22–23, 2024 438 (LV) ± 4.65% 49% 38% 7%[c] 2%
Noble Predictive Insights May 7–14, 2024 364 (RV) ± 5.14% 46% 21% 9% 25%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[B] February 21–26, 2024 469 (LV) ± 3.0% 55% 26% 7% 12%
Noble Predictive Insights February 6–13, 2024 384 (RV) ± 5.0% 54% 21% 9%[d] 17%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Abe
Hamadeh 		Kari
Lake 		Mark
Lamb 		Jim
Lamon 		Blake
Masters 		Karrin Taylor
Robson 		Brian
Wright 		Other Undecided
Noble Predictive Insights October 25–31, 2023 1,010 (RV) ± 3.1% – 40% 14% – 10% – 4% – 33%
Emerson College August 2–4, 2023 667 (LV) ± 3.7% – 42% 11% 2% 7% – 2% – 28%
J.L. Partners April 10–12, 2023 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 4% 38% 8% 3% 7% 10% – 2% 29%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Lake
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Lamb
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Republican primary results[67]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kari Lake 409,339 55.28%
Republican Mark Lamb 292,888 39.56%
Republican Elizabeth Jean Reye 38,208 5.16%
Total votes 740,435 100.0%

Green primary

[edit]

The Arizona Green Party endorsed the write-in campaign of Quintana and was "actively opposed" to Hernandez and Norton's campaigns.[111] A press release on the national Green Party's website states that party leaders allege that Norton is a plant for the Democratic Party and that Hernandez is a plant for the Republican Party.[112]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Mike Norton, nonprofit executive[113]
  • Arturo Hernandez[70]

Endorsements

[edit]
Eduardo Heredia Quintana
Political parties

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Mike Norton $84,401 $76,692 $7,708
Source: Federal Election Commission[110]

Results

[edit]
Green primary results[67]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Eduardo Heredia Quintana (write-in) 282 49.47%
Green Mike Norton 180 31.58%
Green Arturo Hernandez 108 18.95%
Total votes 570 100.0%

Independents

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Kyrsten Sinema (declined to run)
U.S. senators
Individuals
Organizations

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Kyrsten Sinema $17,047,387 $7,065,565 $10,153,343
Source: Federal Election Commission[110]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
Elections Daily[117] Likely D (flip) October 9, 2024
CNalysis[118] Likely D (flip) October 15, 2024
RealClearPolitics[119] Lean D (flip) October 3, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[120] Lean D (flip) September 6, 2024
Inside Elections[4] Lean D (flip) October 10, 2024
The Cook Political Report[5] Lean D (flip) September 12, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[121] Likely D (flip) September 20, 2024
Split Ticket[122] Lean D (flip) October 23, 2024
538[123] Likely D (flip) October 23, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Ruben Gallego (D)
Executive branch officials
Statewide officials
State legislators
Mayors
Organizations
Kari Lake (R)
Governors
Local officials
Organizations

Debates

[edit]
2024 Arizona U.S. Senate election debate
No. Date Host Moderators Link Democratic Republican
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Gallego Lake
1 October 10, 2024 Clean Elections Steve Goldstein
Nohelani Graf 		YouTube P P

Post-primary fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Ruben Gallego (D) $56,843,786 $55,360,823 $2,759,538
Kari Lake (R) $21,396,539 $18,239,291 $3,157,247
Source: Federal Election Commission[110]

Polling

[edit]
Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Ruben
Gallego (D) 		Kari
Lake (R) 		Undecided
[e] 		Margin
FiveThirtyEight through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 49.4% 45.3% 5.3% Gallego +4.1%
RealClearPolitics October 20 – November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.8% 45.6% 5.4% Gallego +3.2%
270toWin October 22 – November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 49.5% 44.3% 6.2% Gallego +5.2%
TheHill/DDHQ through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 49.3% 45.8% 4.9% Gallego +3.5%
Average 49.3% 45.3% 5.4% Gallego +4.0%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ruben
Gallego (D) 		Kari
Lake (R) 		Other Undecided
AtlasIntel November 3–4, 2024 875 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 48% 2%[f] 2%
Victory Insights (R) November 2–3, 2024 750 (LV) – 50% 47% – 3%
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 1–3, 2024 1,090 (LV) ± 2.9% 49% 49% – 2%
Patriot Polling (R) November 1-3, 2024 801 (RV) ± 3.0% 51% 48% – –
InsiderAdvantage (R) November 1–2, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 47% 1% 3%
AtlasIntel November 1–2, 2024 967 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 49% 2%[f] 2%
Emerson College[C] October 30 – November 2, 2024 900 (LV) ± 3.2% 50% 45% – 5%
NYT/Siena College October 25 – November 2, 2024 1,025 (LV) ± 3.4% 50% 45% – 4%
1,025 (RV) ± 3.4% 51% 43% – 6%
Morning Consult October 23 – November 1, 2024 666 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 42% – 8%
AtlasIntel October 30–31, 2024 1,005 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 49% 2%[f] 1%
OnMessage (R) October 29-31, 2024 800 (LV) – 48% 48% – 4%
YouGov[D] October 25–31, 2024 856 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 45% – 6%
880 (RV) 49% 44% – 7%
ActiVote October 5–31, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 54% 46% – –
Noble Predictive Insights October 28–30, 2024 775 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 44% 4%[g] 3%
Data for Progress (D) October 25–30, 2024 1,079 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 45% 2%[h] 4%
AtlasIntel October 25–29, 2024 1,458 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 48% 2%[f] 2%
Mitchell Research & Communications October 28, 2024 610 (LV) ± 3.968% 50% 46% 3%[i] 5%
50% 47% – 3%
Data Orbital (R) October 26–28, 2024 550 (LV) ± 4.3% 45% 45% 5%[j] 6%
RABA Research October 25–27, 2024 589 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 34% 8%[k] 9%
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 24–26, 2024 1,094 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 46% – 4%
CNN/SRSS October 21–26, 2024 781 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 43% 6%[l] 1%
Marist College October 17–22, 2024 1,193 (LV) ± 3.7% 53% 45% – 2%
1,329 (RV) ± 3.5% 53% 45% – 1%
HighGround Public Affairs October 19–20, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 52% 42% 2%[m] 4%
InsiderAdvantage (R) October 19–20, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 46% 1%[n] 3%
University of Arizona October 12–20, 2024 846(RV) ± 3.37% 51% 36% 2%[o] 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[E] October 16–18, 2024 691 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 41% 5%[p] 7%
AtlasIntel October 12–17, 2024 1,440 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 46% 2%[f] 2%
CBS News/YouGov October 11–16, 2024 1,403 (LV) ± 3.3% 54% 45% 1%[q] –
Morning Consult October 6–15, 2024 653 (LV) ± 3.0% 52% 40% 3% 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[E] October 12–14, 2024 1,141 (LV) ± 2.7% 47% 42% 4%[r] 7%
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 10–13, 2024 1,090 (LV) ± 2.9% 48% 44% 3%[s] 6%
NYT/Siena College October 7–10, 2024 808 (LV) ± 3.8% 48% 41% – 10%
808 (RV) ± 3.8% 48% 39% – 12%
ActiVote September 8 – October 10, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 53% 47% – –
Emerson College[C] October 5–8, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 43% – 7%
SoCal Strategies (R)[F] October 5–7, 2024 735 (LV) – 51% 39% – 10%
RMG Research[G] September 30 – October 2, 2024 783 (LV) ± 3.5% 52% 42% 1%[t] 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[E] September 27 – October 2, 2024 555 (LV) ± 3.9% 48% 42% 3%[u] 7%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)[H] 		September 24 – October 1, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 44% 1%[v] 4%
InsiderAdvantage (R) September 29–30, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 43% 1%[n] 6%
HighGround Public Affairs[I] September 26–29, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 41% 2%[m] 5%
National Research Inc.[J] September 25–29, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 42% 2%[h] 8%
Emerson College September 27–28, 2024 920 (LV) ± 3.2% 52% 41% – 7%
AtlasIntel September 20–25, 2024 946 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 46% 2%[f] 2%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[K] September 19–25, 2024 409 (LV) – 51% 39% 4%[w] 6%
54% 41% – 5%
Fox News September 20–24, 2024 764 (LV) ± 3.5% 55% 42% 1%[x] 1%
1,021 (RV) ± 3.0% 56% 42% 1%[x] 1%
Suffolk University[L] September 19–24, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 41% 5%[y] 8%
Marist College September 19–24, 2024 1,264 (LV) ± 3.8% 54% 44% – 1%
1,416 (RV) ± 3.6% 53% 44% – 2%
NYT/Siena College September 17–21, 2024 713 (LV) ± 4.1% 49% 43% – 8%
713 (RV) ± 4.1% 50% 41% – 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[E] September 16–19, 2024 789 (LV) ± 3.2% 46% 41% 3%[u] 9%
Emerson College[C] September 15–18, 2024 868 (LV) ± 3.3% 48% 42% – 10%
Morning Consult September 9–18, 2024 862 (LV) ± 3.0% 53% 39% – 8%
The Trafalgar Group (R) September 11–12, 2024 1,088 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 43% 4%[z] 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[E] September 6–9, 2024 765 (LV) ± 3.3% 48% 42% 2%[aa] 8%
Morning Consult August 30 – September 8, 2024 901 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 41% 3% 7%
YouGov[D] August 23 – September 3, 2024 900 (RV) ± 4.2% 50% 42% – 9%
InsiderAdvantage (R) August 29–31, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 45% 2%[ab] 4%
University of Arizona August 28–31, 2024 1,155 (RV) – 47% 36% 4%[ac] 13%
CNN/SRSS August 23–29, 2024 682 (LV) ± 4.7% 47% 44% 8%[ad] –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[E] August 25–28, 2024 530 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 37% 3%[ae] 17%
Emerson College[C] August 25–28, 2024 720 (LV) ± 3.6% 49% 42% – 9%
Fox News August 23–26, 2024 1,014 (RV) ± 3.0% 56% 41% 2%[af] 1%
Noble Predictive Insights August 12–16, 2024 1,003 (RV) ± 3.1% 47% 40% – 13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[E] August 12–15, 2024 592 (LV) ± 3.7% 44% 39% 4%[ag] 13%
NYT/Siena College August 8–15, 2024 677 (RV) ± 4.1% 49% 41% – 10%
677 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 42% – 8%
WPA Intelligence (R)[M] August 11–13, 2014 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 46% 3%[ah] 3%
Peak Insights (R)[N] July 31 – August 5, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 46% – 8%
HighGround Public Affairs July 30 – August 5, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 39% 3%[ai] 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[E] July 31 – August 3, 2024 567 (LV) ± 3.8% 42% 36% – 22%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[K] July 26 – August 2, 2024 435 (LV) – 51% 42% – 7%
July 30, 2024 Primary elections held
Emerson College[O] July 22–23, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.4% 46% 42% – 12%
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden withdraws from the presidential race
Public Policy Polling (D)[P] July 19–20, 2014 736 (RV) – 49% 42% – 9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[Q] July 10–11, 2024 596 (RV) – 50% 47% – 4%
J.L. Partners (R)[R] July 10–11, 2024 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 43% 44% – 3%
YouGov[D] July 4–12, 2024 900 (RV) ± 3.9% 48% 41% 2% 9%
793 (LV) – 49% 42% 2% 8%
Expedition Strategies[S] June 24 – July 8, 2024 268 (LV) – 49% 45% – 7%
Remington Research Group (R)[T] June 29 – July 1, 2024 638 (LV) – 47% 47% – 6%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[U] June 17–20, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 38% 9%[aj] 13%
Emerson College[C] June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 41% – 14%
Rasmussen Reports (R) June 11–13, 2024 750 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 41% – 15%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)[H] 		May 28 – June 4, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 45% – 7%
Mainstreet Research/FAU May 19–21, 2024 609 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 38% – 18%
501 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 39% – 13%
CBS News/YouGov May 10–16, 2024 1,214 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 36% – 15%
Noble Predictive Insights May 7–14, 2024 1,003 (RV) ± 3.1% 46% 36% – 18%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[K] May 6–13, 2024 527 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 41% – 13%
NYT/Siena College April 28 – May 9, 2024 626 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 41% – 14%
626 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 43% – 11%
Data Orbital (R) April 27–29, 2024 550 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 44% – 8%
Emerson College[C] April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 43% – 12%
RABA Research April 9, 2024 503 (RV) ± 4.4% 36% 28% 13%[ak] 23%
Emerson College March 12–15, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 40% – 16%
March 5, 2024 Kyrsten Sinema announces she will not seek re-election.
Rasmussen Reports (R)[B] February 21–26, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 42% 45% – 13%
Emerson College[C] February 16–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 39% – 15%
Noble Predictive Insights February 6–13, 2024 1,002 (RV) ± 3.1% 47% 37% – 16%
J.L. Partners (R)[R] January 29 – February 1, 2024 500 (RV) – 44% 46% – 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[V] January 5–6, 2024 590 (V) ± 4.0% 45% 46% – 9%
Cygnal (R) October 24–25, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 43% – 11%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[W] October 24, 2023 – ± 4.4% 49% 44% – 7%
National Research Inc. (R) October 8–9, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 44% – 12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[X] October 6–7, 2023 522 (V) ± 4.3% 48% 43% – 9%
Noble Predictive Insights July 13–17, 2023 1000 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 35% – 20%
OH Predictive Insights January 31 – February 9, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 43% 33% – 24%
Normington Petts (D)[Y] January 18–23, 2023 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 45% – 5%
Public Policy Polling (D)[X] December 21, 2022 650 (V) ± 3.8% 48% 47% – 5%
Hypothetical polling
Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ruben
Gallego (D) 		Kari
Lake (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (I) 		Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (R)[B] February 21–26, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 33% 37% 21% 2%[al] 7%
Emerson College[C] February 16–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 36% 30% 21% – 13%
Noble Predictive Insights February 6–13, 2024 1,002 (RV) ± 3.1% 34% 31% 23% – 12%
J.L. Partners (R)[R] January 29 – February 1, 2024 500 (RV) – 39% 40% 13% – 8%
Public Policy Polling (D)[V] January 5–6, 2024 590 (V) ± 4.0% 36% 35% 17% – 12%
VCreek/AMG (R)[Z] December 1–8, 2023 694 (LV) ± 3.7% 35% 41% 16% 1%[am] 7%
Tulchin Research (D)[AA] November 13–20, 2023 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 39% 34% 17% 6%[an] 4%
Noble Predictive Insights October 25–31, 2023 1,010 (RV) ± 3.1% 39% 33% 29% – –
Cygnal (R) October 24–25, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 36% 37% 15% – 11%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[W] October 24, 2023 – ± 4.4% 41% 37% 17% – 5%
National Research Inc. (R) October 8–9, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 33% 37% 19% – 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[X] October 6–7, 2023 522 (V) ± 4.3% 41% 36% 15% – 8%
Noble Predictive Insights July 13–17, 2023 1000 (RV) ± 3.1% 34% 25% 26% – 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[X] April 18–19, 2023 559 (V) – 42% 35% 14% – 9%
OH Predictive Insights January 31 – February 9, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 34% 26% 19% – 21%
Normington Petts (D)[Y] January 18–23, 2023 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 36% 36% 24% – –
Blueprint Polling (D) January 5–8, 2023 618 (V) ± 3.9% 32% 36% 14% – 19%
Public Policy Polling (D)[X] December 21, 2022 678 (V) ± 3.8% 40% 41% 13% – 6%
Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. "An Independent / third-party candidate"
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ruben
Gallego (D) 		Kari
Lake (R) 		Generic
independent 		Undecided
Bullfinch Group March 29 – April 3, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 41% 10% 8%
Ruben Gallego vs. Doug Ducey vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ruben
Gallego (D) 		Doug
Ducey (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (I) 		Undecided
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse/
OH Predictive Insights 		January 31 – February 9, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 38% 34% – 28%
32% 27% 17% 23%
Normington Petts (D)[Y] January 18–23, 2023 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 37% 31% 27% 5%
Ruben Gallego vs. Blake Masters vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ruben
Gallego (D) 		Blake
Masters (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (I) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[X] October 6–7, 2023 522 (V) ± 4.3% 41% 31% 17% 11%
Noble Predictive Insights July 13–17, 2023 1000 (RV) ± 3.1% 44% 36% – 20%
32% 24% 28% 16%
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse/
OH Predictive Insights 		January 31 – February 9, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 43% 32% – 26%
33% 24% 22% 21%
Ruben Gallego vs. Karrin Taylor-Robson vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ruben
Gallego (D) 		Karrin Taylor
Robson (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (I) 		Undecided
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse/
OH Predictive Insights 		January 31 – February 9, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 36% 32% – 32%
31% 24% 21% 25%
Ruben Gallego vs. Mark Lamb vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ruben
Gallego (D) 		Mark
Lamb (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (I) 		Undecided
Noble Predictive Insights October 25–31, 2023 1,010 (RV) ± 3.1% 36% 32% 32% 0%
Public Policy Polling (D)[X] October 6–7, 2023 522 (V) ± 4.3% 40% 31% 16% 13%
Emerson College August 2–4, 2023 1,337 (RV) ± 2.6% 42% 42% – 16%
36% 29% 21% 15%
Noble Predictive Insights July 13–17, 2023 1000 (RV) ± 3.1% 40% 36% – 24%
33% 25% 24% 18%
Public Policy Polling (D)[X] April 18–19, 2023 559 (V) – 43% 33% 15% 9%
Ruben Gallego vs. Jim Lamon vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ruben
Gallego (D) 		Jim
Lamon (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (I) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[X] April 18–19, 2023 559 (V) – 43% 27% 16% 14%
Ruben Gallego vs. Brian Wright vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ruben
Gallego (D) 		Brian
Wright (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (I) 		Undecided
Emerson College August 2–4, 2023 1,337 (RV) ± 2.6% 41% 38% – 21%
37% 25% 26% 12%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States Senate election in Arizona[137]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Ruben Gallego 1,600,923 50.0%
Republican Kari Lake 1,528,297 47.8%
Green Eduardo Heredia Quintana 70,678 2.2%
Total votes 3,199,898 100.0%
Democratic gain from Independent

On November 9, 2024, Decision Desk HQ projected that Gallego had beaten Lake in the Senate election in Arizona.[138] On November 12, 2024, the Associated Press projected that Gallego had defeated Lake as well.[6]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "Someone else" with 6%"
  3. ^ Elizabeth Jean Reye with 3%
  4. ^ Brian Wright with 6%; George Nicholson with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  5. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. ^ a b c d e f "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  7. ^ Quintana (G) with 2%; "Refused" with 2%
  8. ^ a b Quintana (G) with 2%
  9. ^ Quintana (G) with 1%
  10. ^ Quintana (G) with 2%; "Refused" with 2%; "I did not vote on US Senate" with 1%
  11. ^ "Someone else" with 8%
  12. ^ "Other" with 5%; "Neither" with 1%
  13. ^ a b "Some other candidate" with 2%
  14. ^ a b "Another candidate" with 1%
  15. ^ "Someone Else" with 2%
  16. ^ Quintana (G) with 2%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  17. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  18. ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%, Quintana (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  19. ^ "Other" with 3%
  20. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  21. ^ a b "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%, Quintana (G) with 1%
  22. ^ "Other" with 1%
  23. ^ "Someone else" with 3%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  24. ^ a b "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  25. ^ Quintana (G) with 3%; "Refused" with 2%
  26. ^ "Other" with 4%
  27. ^ "Other" and Quintana (G) with 1%
  28. ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
  29. ^ "Someone Else" with 4%
  30. ^ "Other" with 6%; "Neither" with 2%
  31. ^ Quintana (G) with 2%; "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%
  32. ^ "Other" with 1%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  33. ^ "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 3%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
  34. ^ Norton (G) with 3%
  35. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  36. ^ Quintana (G) with 9%
  37. ^ "Someone else" with 13%
  38. ^ Wouldn't vote with 2%
  39. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  40. ^ "Someone else" with 6%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ This poll was sponsored by Primary Sinema
  2. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Bull Moose Project.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h Poll sponsored by The Hill
  4. ^ a b c Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
  7. ^ Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  8. ^ a b Poll commissioned by AARP
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by Arizona's Family
  10. ^ Poll sponsored by Democracy Defense Project
  11. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
  12. ^ Poll sponsored by USA Today
  13. ^ Poll sponsored by Club for Growth, which has endorsed Lake.
  14. ^ Poll sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports Lake's campaign.
  15. ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
  16. ^ Poll sponsored by the Clean & Prosperous America PAC.
  17. ^ Poll sponsored by the Progress Action Fund, which is a sponsor of the Democratic Party.
  18. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Lake's campaign.
  19. ^ Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
  20. ^ Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
  21. ^ Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  22. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Replace Sinema PAC.
  23. ^ a b Poll sponsored by NRSC.
  24. ^ a b c d e f g h i This poll was sponsored by Gallego's campaign
  25. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Progress Arizona, LUCHA, and Replace Sinema PAC
  26. ^ Poll sponsored by Americas PAC, which supports Republican candidates.
  27. ^ Poll conducted for Stand for Children, a non-profit education advocacy group.

References

[edit]
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Official campaign websites
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