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2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

From Wikipedia - Reading time: 29 min

For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.
Not to be confused with 2024 Pennsylvania Senate election.
2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
 
Nominee David McCormick Bob Casey Jr.
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 3,398,495 3,382,278
Percentage 48.83% 48.59%
County results
McCormick:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Casey:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Bob Casey Jr.
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

David McCormick
Republican

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The 2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Pennsylvania. Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr lost re-election to a fourth term, being defeated by Republican nominee David McCormick in an upset.[1] The primary election took place on April 23, 2024.[2] The election was considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain their majority in 2024.[3]

The Associated Press and Fox News declared McCormick the winner on November 7,[4] while Decision Desk HQ called the race for McCormick on November 14.[5] CNN, NBC, ABC and CBS all called the race for McCormick on November 21; Casey conceded the race to McCormick on that same day.[6]

This was Pennsylvania's closest Senate election since the passage of the Seventeenth Amendment, as well as the closest Senate election of the 2024 cycle. Notably, the slim margin of just 0.25% between the Republican and Democratic candidates is less than the votes received by either the Libertarian candidate, John Thomas (1.29% of the vote), the Green candidate, Leila Hazou (0.95% of the vote), or the Constitution candidate, Marty Selker (0.34% of the vote). Hazou stated that she ran specifically in opposition to Casey's position on Palestine.[7]

On November 13, 2024, a recount was required by state law as the result was within one half of a percentage point.[8]

Background

[edit]

Pennsylvania is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania by about 1.2 percentage points. Democrats currently control both U.S. Senate seats, the Governorship, a majority of its U.S. House congressional delegation, and the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. The last time Republicans won a U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania was in 2016.[9][10][11][12]

Senator Bob Casey Jr. was first elected in the blue wave of 2006, defeating then-incumbent Senator Rick Santorum by about 17 percentage points. He was re-elected in 2012 by 9 percentage points (when he ran ahead of Obama by almost 4 points) and in the blue wave of 2018 by 13 percentage points.[13][14][15]

The race was considered to be competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean. Most polls showed Casey to be the slight favorite to win.[16]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Disqualified

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Bob Casey Jr.
Executive officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
Individuals
Political parties
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Bob Casey Jr. (D) $23,790,263 $12,391,802 $11,886,480
Source: Federal Election Commission[54]

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[55]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) 1,024,545 100.00%
Total votes 1,024,545 100.00%

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Disqualified

[edit]
  • Joseph Vodvarka, spring manufacturer and perennial candidate[58]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
David McCormick
Executive Branch officials
Federal officials
State cabinet officials
U.S senators
U.S. representatives
State senators
Local officials
  • Sam DeMarco, at-large Allegheny County councilor (2016–present) and chair of the Allegheny County Republican Party (2018–present)[76]
Party officials
Organizations
Political parties
Individuals

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
David McCormick (R) $11,052,879 $4,660,701 $6,399,998
Source: Federal Election Commission[54]

Polling

[edit]
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kathy
Barnette 		Doug
Mastriano 		David
McCormick 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) March 9–10, 2023 616 (LV) – 11% 39% 21% 29%
– – 42% 28% 29%

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[55]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David McCormick 878,320 100.00%
Total votes 878,320 100.00%

Third parties

[edit]

Libertarian convention

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]
  • John Thomas, educator[85]

Eliminated at convention

[edit]
  • Erik Gerhardt, carpenter, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022, and candidate for president in 2020[86]

Green Party

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]
  • Leila Hazou, shop owner[87]

Constitution Party

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]
  • Bernard Selker, truck driver[87]

American Solidarity Party

[edit]

Disqualified

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[89] Tossup October 21, 2024
Inside Elections[90] Tilt D November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[91] Lean D June 13, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[92] Lean D June 8, 2024
Elections Daily[93] Lean D October 24, 2024
CNalysis[94] Lean D November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics[95] Tossup August 5, 2024
Split Ticket[96] Lean D October 23, 2024
538[97] Lean D October 28, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Bob Casey Jr. (D)
Executive branch officials
David McCormick (R)
Former U.S. executive officials
U.S. Senators
Individuals
John Thomas (L)
Individuals

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Bob Casey (D) $52,879,737 $50,545,793 $2,821,961
David McCormick (R) $27,698,652[b] $26,030,736 $1,675,736
Source: Federal Election Commission[54]

Debates

[edit]
2024 Pennsylvania U.S. Senate election debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Republican
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Casey McCormick
1 October 3, 2024 WHTM-TV Dennis Owens YouTube P P
2 October 15, 2024 WPVI-TV Matt O'Donnell, Sharrie Williams, Ilia Garcia C-SPAN P P

Polling

[edit]
Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Bob
Casey Jr. (D) 		David
McCormick (R) 		Undecided
[c] 		Margin
FiveThirtyEight through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.2% 45.4% 6.4% Casey +2.8%
RealClearPolitics October 21 – November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.1% 46.3% 5.6% Casey +1.8%
270toWin October 24 – November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.4% 45.9% 5.7% Casey +2.5%
TheHill/DDHQ through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.6% 46.6% 4.8% Casey +2.0%
Average 48.3% 46.1% 5.6% Casey +2.2%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Bob
Casey Jr. (D) 		David
McCormick (R) 		Other Undecided
AtlasIntel November 3–4, 2024 1,840 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 47% 2% 2%
Survation November 1–4, 2024 929 (LV) – 49% 42% 3%[d] 6%
Research Co. November 2–3, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 48% 46% 2%[e] 4%
Patriot Polling (R) November 1–3, 2024 903 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 49% – –
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 1–3, 2024 1,089 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 47% – 7%
InsiderAdvantage (R) November 1–2, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 47% 2% 3%
AtlasIntel November 1–2, 2024 2,049 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 47% 3%[f] 2%
Emerson College[A] October 30 – November 2, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 47% – 6%
NYT/Siena College[B] October 29 – November 2, 2024 1,527 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 45% – 4%
1,527 (RV) ± 2.8% 50% 45% – 6%
Mainstreet Research/FAU October 25 – November 2, 2024 699 (LV) ± 3.6% 49% 44% 1%[g] 6%
726 (RV) ± 3.6% 48% 43% 2%[h] 7%
Morning Consult October 23 – November 1, 2024 1,538 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 43% – 11%
OnMessage (R) October 29–31, 2024 800 (LV) – 46% 46% – 8%
Data for Progress (D) October 25–31, 2024 908 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 45% 2%[i] 4%
YouGov[C] October 25–31, 2024 947 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 44% – 6%
982 (RV) 50% 43% – 6%
ActiVote October 14–31, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 50.5% 49.5% – –
Muhlenberg College[D] October 27–30, 2024 460 (LV) ± 6.0% 49% 46% 3% 1%
Suffolk University[E] October 27–30, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 46% 2%[i] 2%
Marist College October 27–30, 2024 1,400 (LV) ± 3.4% 50% 48% 1%[j] 1%
1,558 (RV) ± 3.2% 50% 48% 1%[j] 1%
Echelon Insights October 27–30, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.5% 44% 47% 3%[k] 5%
AtlasIntel October 27–30, 2024 1,738 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 46% 3%[f] 2%
The Washington Post October 26–30, 2024 1,204 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 46% 2%[l] 3%
1,204 (RV) 49% 45% 3%[m] 3%
AtlasIntel October 25–29, 2024 1,229 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 47% 3%[f] 2%
Fox News October 24–28, 2024 1,057 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 48% – 1%
1,310 (RV) ± 2.5% 51% 46% 1% 2%
Quinnipiac University October 24–28, 2024 2,186 (LV) ± 2.1% 50% 47% 2%[n] 1%
Monmouth University October 24–28, 2024 824 (RV) ± 3.8% 45% 44% – 12%
CNN/SSRS October 23–28, 2024 819 (LV) ± 4.7% 48% 45% 6%[o] 1%
CBS News/YouGov October 22–28, 2024 1,249 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 42% 3%[p] 7%
InsiderAdvantage (R) October 26–27, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 47% 2%[q] 4%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[F] October 22–26, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 42% 5%[r] 9%
UMass Lowell/YouGov October 16–23, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 42% 3%[s] 7%
Emerson College[G] October 21–22, 2024 860 (LV) ± 3.3% 47% 46% 2%[t] 6%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) October 18–22, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 46% 2%[u] 4%
Franklin & Marshall College October 9–20, 2024 583 (LV) ± 5.0% 49% 48% – 3%
794 (RV) ± 4.3% 48% 41% 5%[v] 6%
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 17–19, 2024 1,084 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 47% – 6%
AtlasIntel October 12–17, 2024 2,048 (LV) ± 2.0% 47% 48% 2%[w] 3%
The Bullfinch Group October 11–17, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 43% – 8%
YouGov[H] October 7–17, 2024 1,043 (LV) ± 3.44% 50% 42% – 8%
1,062 (RV) ± 3.4% 49% 42% – 9%
Morning Consult October 6–15, 2024 1,395 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 41% – 10%
NYT/Siena College[B] October 7–10, 2024 857 (LV) ± 3.8% 48% 44% – 8%
857 (RV) ± 3.7% 48% 43% – 9%
American Pulse Research & Polling October 2–10, 2024 1,193 (LV) ± 2.8% 48% 45% 2%[x] 5%
TIPP Insights (R)[F] October 7–9, 2024 803 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 43% 1%[y] 9%
1,079 (RV) 48% 40% 1%[z] 12%
UMass Lowell/YouGov October 2–9, 2024 800 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 39% 3%[aa] 10%
InsiderAdvantage (R) October 7–8, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 45% 2%[q] 6%
Emerson College[A] October 5–8, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 46% – 6%
Research Co. October 5–7, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 47% 44% 1%[ab] 8%
Quinnipiac University October 3–7, 2024 1,412 (LV) ± 2.6% 51% 43% 2%[ac] 5%
ActiVote September 6 – October 7, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 53% 47% – –
OnMessage Inc. (R)[ad] September 28–29, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 44% 5%[ae] 7%
Patriot Polling (R) September 27–29, 2024 816 (RV) ± 3.0% 51% 48% – –
The Bullfinch Group[I] September 26–29, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 48% 39% 12%[af] –
52% 42% 6%[ag] –
The Trafalgar Group (R) September 26–29, 2024 1,090 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 46% – 7%
Emerson College[G] September 27–28, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 45% – 8%
AtlasIntel September 20–25, 2024 1,775 (LV) ± 2.0% 47% 45% 1%[ah] 6%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[J] September 19–25, 2024 474 (LV) – 48% 42% 3%[ai] 6%
52% 45% – 3%
Fox News September 20–24, 2024 775 (LV) ± 3.5% 53% 44% 1%[aj] 2%
1,021 (RV) ± 3.0% 53% 44% 1%[aj] 2%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/
Impact Research (D)[K] 		September 17–24, 2024 816 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 45% – 6%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) September 16–22, 2024 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 40% 1%[ak] 11%
RMG Research[L] September 18–20, 2024 783 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 44% 1%[aj] 5%
Remington Research Group (R)[M] September 16–20, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 45% – 7%
Muhlenberg College[D] September 16–19, 2024 450 (LV) ± 6.0% 48% 43% 5% 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] September 16–19, 2024 1,086 (LV) ± 2.8% 47% 41% 2%[al] 10%
UMass Lowell/YouGov September 11–19, 2024 800 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 38% 3%[aa] 13%
Emerson College[A] September 15–18, 2024 880 (LV) ± 3.2% 47% 42% – 11%
MassINC Polling Group[O] September 12–18, 2024 800 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 42% 2%[am] 6%
Morning Consult September 9–18, 2024 1,756 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 40% – 11%
Marist College September 12–17, 2024 1,663 (RV) ± 2.0% 52% 46% 1%[j] 1%
1,476 (LV) ± 3.2% 52% 47% – 1%
Quinnipiac University September 12–16, 2024 1,331 (LV) ± 2.7% 52% 43% 1%[an] 3%
The Washington Post September 12–16, 2024 1,003 (LV) ± 3.6% 47% 46% 7%[ao] –
48% 48% 5%[ap] –
NYT/Siena College[B] September 11–16, 2024 1,082 (RV) ± 4.1% 48% 39% – 13%
1,082 (LV) ± 4.3% 49% 40% – 11%
InsiderAdvantage (R) September 14–15, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 44% 2%[q] 5%
Franklin & Marshall College September 4–15, 2024 890 (RV) ± 4.1% 48% 40% 3%[aq] 10%
Suffolk University[E] September 11–14, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 43% 2%[ar] 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] September 6–9, 2024 801 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 36% 5%[as] 14%
Morning Consult August 30 – September 8, 2024 1,910 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 40% – 11%
co/efficient September 4–6, 2024 889 (LV) ± 3.29% 45% 36% – 19%
CBS News/YouGov September 3–6, 2024 1,076 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 41% 3%[at] 8%
YouGov[C] August 23 – September 3, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.6% 52% 41% – 8%
The Trafalgar Group (R) August 28–30, 2024 1,082 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 45% – 8%
CNN/SRSS August 23–29, 2024 789 (LV) ± 4.7% 46% 46% 7%[au] 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] August 25–28, 2024 1,071 (LV) ± 2.8% 44% 38% 4%[av] 14%
Emerson College[A] August 25–28, 2024 950 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 44% – 8%
SoCal Strategies (R)[P] August 23, 2024 713 (LV) – 47% 41% – 12%
800 (RV) – 45% 40% – 15%
ActiVote August 3-23, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 55% 45% – –
Fabrizio Ward[Q] August 19–21, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 46% 43% – 11%
Cygnal (R) August 14–15, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 46% 42% – 12%
42% 38% 7%[aw] 13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] August 12–15, 2024 825 (LV) ± 3.2% 44% 36% 1%[ax] 17%
Emerson College August 13–14, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 44% – 8%
Quinnipiac University August 8–12, 2024 1,738 (LV) ± 2.4% 52% 44% 1%[ay] 3%
The Bullfinch Group[R] August 8–11, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.38% 51% 39% – 10%
Franklin & Marshall College July 21 – August 11, 2024 920 (RV) ± 3.8% 48% 36% 3%[az] 13%
NYT/Siena College August 6–9, 2024 693 (RV) ± 4.0% 50% 36% – 14%
693 (LV) ± 4.2% 51% 37% – 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] July 31 – August 3, 2024 743 (LV) ± 3.4% 45% 40% 2%[ba] 12%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[J] July 26 – August 2, 2024 411 (LV) – 53% 40% – 7%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) July 22–28, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 42% – 11%
Fox News July 22–24, 2024 1,034 (RV) ± 3.0% 55% 42% – 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] July 22–24, 2024 851 (LV) ± 3.1% 46% 39% 4%[bb] 11%
Emerson College[S] July 22–23, 2024 850 (RV) ± 3.3% 48% 44% – 8%
SoCal Research (R)[T] July 20–21, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 40% – 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[U] July 17–18, 2024 624 (RV) ± 3.8% 50% 39% – 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] July 16–18, 2024 688 (LV) – 44% 37% 3%[bc] 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[V] July 11–12, 2024 537 (RV) – 47% 44% – 9%
YouGov[C] July 4–12, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.4% 50% 38% 1% 11%
889 (LV) – 51% 39% 1% 9%
NYT/Siena College July 9–11, 2024 872 (RV) ± 3.7% 50% 39% – 10%
872 (LV) ± 3.8% 50% 42% – 8%
Expedition Strategies[W] June 24 – July 8, 2024 284 (LV) – 48% 45% – 7%
Remington Research Group (R)[M] June 29 – July 1, 2024 673 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 48% – 4%
Cygnal (R) June 27–28, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 42% – 12%
The Bullfinch Group[X] June 14–19, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 36% – 16%
Emerson College[A] June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 41% – 12%
Marist College June 3–6, 2024 1,181 (RV) ± 3.6% 52% 46% – 2%
Mainstreet Research/FAU May 30–31, 2024 1,012 (RV) ± 3.1% 48% 40% 5% 7%
923 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 42% 3% 6%
KAConsulting (R)[Y] May 15–19, 2024 600 (RV) – 47% 37% 4%[bd] 12%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[J] May 6–13, 2024 730 (LV) ± 3.6% 49% 41% – 10%
NYT/Siena College[B] April 28 – May 9, 2024 1,023 (RV) ± 3.6% 46% 41% – 13%
1,023 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 44% – 10%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)[K] 		April 24–30, 2024 1,398 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 44% – 8%
Emerson College[A] April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 42% – 12%
CBS News/YouGov April 19–25, 2024 1,306 (LV) ± 3.1% 46% 39% – 15%
Muhlenberg College April 15–25, 2024 417 (RV) ± 6.0% 45% 41% 5% 9%
The Bullfinch Group[R] March 29 – April 3, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 38% 9% 8%
National Public Affairs March 2024 759 (LV) ± 3.6% 32% 28% – 40%
Franklin & Marshall College March 20–31, 2024 431 (RV) ± 5.7% 46% 39% – 15%
The Bullfinch Group[X] March 22–26, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 30% 8% 15%
Emerson College March 10–13, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 48% – –
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) February 27 – March 7, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 48% 42% – 10%
Emerson College February 14–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 39% – 13%
Chism Strategies February 6–8, 2024 500 (RV) ± 5.0% 38% 37% – 25%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[Z] January 22–25, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 40% – 12%
Franklin & Marshall College January 17–28, 2023 1,006 (RV) ± 3.6% 47% 35% 4% 14%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) January 15–21, 2024 745 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 42% 3% 9%
Quinnipiac University January 4–8, 2024 1,680 (RV) ± 2.4% 53% 43% 1%[aj] 2%
Common Ground (R)[X] December 8–12, 2023 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 42% 27% 13%[be] 20%
Change Research (D)[AA] December 3–7, 2023 2,532 (RV) ± 3.5% 44% 41% 0% 15%
Franklin & Marshall College October 11–22, 2023 873 (RV) ± 4.1% 46% 39% 4% 12%
Emerson College October 1–4, 2023 430 (RV) ± 4.7% 41% 33% 8% 18%
Quinnipiac University September 28 – October 2, 2023 1,725 (RV) ± 2.4% 50% 44% 2%[bf] 4%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) May 2–8, 2023 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 53% 41% 1% 5%
Cygnal (R) April 12–13, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 41% 0% 13%
Franklin & Marshall College March 27 – April 7, 2023 643 (RV) ± 6.6% 42% 35% – 23%
Hypothetical polling
Bob Casey Jr. vs. Doug Mastriano
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Bob
Casey Jr. (D) 		Doug
Mastriano (R) 		Undecided
Franklin & Marshall College March 27 – April 7, 2023 643 (RV) ± 3.7% 47% 31% 22%
Cygnal (R) April 12–13, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 39% 12%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania[106]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican David McCormick 3,395,784 48.84% +6.22
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) 3,378,354 48.59% −7.15
Libertarian John Thomas 89,475 1.29% +0.27
Green Leila Hazou 66,185 0.95% −0.33
Constitution Marty Selker 23,586 0.34% N/A
Total votes 6,953,384 100.0%
Republican gain from Democratic
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Recount

[edit]

In Pennsylvania, a statewide recount is triggered under state law if the margin falls within 0.5% of the total vote. Preliminary results for the election reached this threshold on November 13, 2024, with McCormick at 48.9% leading Casey's 48.5%, as outstanding ballots continued to be counted across the state. Secretary of the Commonwealth Al Schmidt officially ordered the recount later that evening, with Casey declining to concede.[107] The deadline for the counties to begin their recounts is on November 20, the third Wednesday after the election according to state law, however, counties can start their recounts as early as November 18, with all counties required to submit their results to the Department of State by noon on November 26 as the results must be reported by the Secretary of the Commonwealth by noon on November 27.[108] Additionally, the counties must use different machines for the recount than were used on Election Day.[109]

During the initial counting of votes, various Pennsylvania Democrats voted to illegally count mail-in ballots that had been thrown out due to missing or incorrect dates, something that is a disqualifier according to Pennsylvania state law.[110] While some lower courts have deemed this rule illegal, it was upheld by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court on November 1, alongside a decision allowing provisional ballots with the same issues to be counted.[111] This was admitted by some officials, with Bucks County elections commissioner Diane-Ellis Marseglia stating that “people violate laws anytime they want. So, for me, if I violate this law, it’s because I want a court to pay attention."[112] Following the decision by certain Democratic-controlled elections boards to continue counting invalid ballots, Republicans announced several lawsuits against the counties that had chosen to do so,[113] and the decision was criticized by conservative outlets as well as the editorial board of the Washington Post.[114] On Monday, November 18 the Pennsylvania Supreme Court directed all of the state's county election officials not to count certain mail-in ballots for this year's general election that arrived on time but in envelopes without the correct dates handwritten by voters.[115][116]

The last instance of a statewide recount being held was for the 2022 Republican primary for Pennsylvania's Class 3 Senate seat, of which McCormick was also a candidate. Conversely to his stance in the 2024 general election, he unsuccessfully sued to have undated mail-in ballots counted. After completion of the recount he would concede to Mehmet Oz, with the final results expanding Oz's margin by 49 votes.[117]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ $4,263,800 of this total was self-funded by McCormick
  3. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ^ Thomas (L) and Hazou (G) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  5. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  6. ^ a b c "Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%
  7. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%
  8. ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
  9. ^ a b Thomas (L) and Hazou (G) with 1%
  10. ^ a b c "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  11. ^ Hazou (G) with 2%; Thomas (L) with 1%
  12. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  13. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 2%
  14. ^ "Refused" with 2%
  15. ^ "Other" with 4%; "Neither" with 2%
  16. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  17. ^ a b c "Other" with 2%
  18. ^ Thomas (L) with 2%; Hazou (G) and Selker (C) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  19. ^ Thomas with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  20. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  21. ^ "Refuse" with 2%
  22. ^ "Other" (Thomas (L), Hazou (G) & Selker (C)) with 5%
  23. ^ "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  24. ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
  25. ^ "Other" with 1%
  26. ^ "Other" with 1%
  27. ^ a b Hazou (G) and Thomas (L) with 1%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  28. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  29. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  30. ^ Poll sponsored by Sentinel Action Fund
  31. ^ "Other" with 5%
  32. ^ "None of the Above" with 9%; "Other" with 3%
  33. ^ Thomas (L) with 3%, Hazou (G) with 2%, and Selker (C) with 1%
  34. ^ "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with <1%
  35. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 2%
  36. ^ a b c d "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  37. ^ "Other" with 1%
  38. ^ Thomas (L), "Wouldn't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
  39. ^ "Another candidate" and "Would not vote for senate" each with 1%; "Prefer not to say" with <1%
  40. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  41. ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; Thomas (L), Hazou (G), and "Would not vote" each with 1%
  42. ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 3%; "Would not vote" each with 2%
  43. ^ "Other" with 3%
  44. ^ Thomas (L) with 1%; Selker (C) with 1%; Hazou (G) with <1%
  45. ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 4%; Thomas (L) with 1%
  46. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  47. ^ "Other" with 4%; "Neither" with 3%
  48. ^ Thomas (L) with 1%; Hazou (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
  49. ^ Thomas (L) with 3%; Hazou (G) with 2%; Messina (AS) and Selker (C) with 1%
  50. ^ Leila Hazou (G) with 1%, John Thomas (L), "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)", and Marty Selker (C) with 0%
  51. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  52. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  53. ^ John Thomas (L) and "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%; Leila Hazou (G) and Marty Selker (C) with 0%
  54. ^ John Thomas (L) with 2%; Leila Hazou (G) with 1%; Marty Selker (C) with 0%; "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%
  55. ^ Leila Hazou (G), John Thomas (L), and Marty Selker (C) with 1%
  56. ^ "Would not vote" with 3%; "Someone else" with 1%
  57. ^ "None of the above" with 8%; "Other" with 5%
  58. ^ "Someone else" & "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c d e f Poll sponsored by The Hill
  2. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by The Philadelphia Inquirer
  3. ^ a b c Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
  4. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Morning Call
  5. ^ a b Poll sponsored by USA Today
  6. ^ a b Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  7. ^ a b Poll sponsored by RealClearPennsylvania
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by Rose Institute of State and Local Government
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by the Commonwealth Foundation
  10. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
  11. ^ a b Poll commissioned by AARP
  12. ^ Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  13. ^ a b Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
  14. ^ a b c d e f g Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
  15. ^ Poll sponsored by Spotlight PA
  16. ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics and Red Eagle Politics, the latter of which supports the Republican Party.
  17. ^ Poll sponsored by the Pinpoint Policy Institute
  18. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Independent Center
  19. ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
  20. ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
  21. ^ Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, a group that supports Democrats.
  22. ^ Poll sponsored by the Progress Action Fund, which is a sponsor of the Democratic Party.
  23. ^ Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
  24. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the Commonwealth Foundation, a conservative think tank
  25. ^ Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
  26. ^ Poll sponsored by McCormick's campaign
  27. ^ Poll sponsored by Future Majority, a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party.

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[edit]
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