2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
The 2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Wisconsin . Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin is seeking a third term.[ 1] She is being challenged by Republican businessman Eric Hovde. Primary elections took place on August 13, 2024.[ 2]
The election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.[ 3] Republicans last held both of Wisconsin's Senate seats in 1957.
No Republican has won this senate seat since Joseph McCarthy in 1952 , the longest Democratic streak of any US Senate seat in the nation. Incumbent Tammy Baldwin was first elected in 2012 , defeating former governor Tommy Thompson by 6 percentage points. She was re-elected in 2018 by 11 percentage points.[ 4] [ 5]
The race is considered to be slightly favorable to Baldwin, despite Wisconsin's nearly even partisan lean, with most polls showing Baldwin to be the favorite to win.
Wisconsin is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since there are both a Republican and a Democratic senator representing the state. Wisconsin was also a top battleground state in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections . The state backed the Republican candidate in 2016, and then the Democratic candidate in 2020, both by less than 1% and only a plurality.[citation needed ]
Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. Republicans control both chambers of the Wisconsin Legislature and hold a supermajority in Wisconsin's U.S. House delegation. Republicans also control the state's other senate seat. However, Democrats have seen success in statewide races, including in 2022 , where incumbent governor Tony Evers overperformed expectations and won reelection to a second term, despite polls showing his Republican challenger as the slight favorite.[ 6] [ 7]
Tammy Baldwin
U.S. representatives
Governors
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Campaign finance reports as of July 24, 2024
Candidate
Raised
Spent
Cash on hand
Tammy Baldwin (D)
$36,476,704
$30,268,932
$6,349,965
Source: Federal Election Commission [ 40]
Eric Hovde, bank executive, businessman, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2012 [ 42]
Eliminated in primary [ edit ]
Eric Hovde
Executive branch officials
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
Organizations
Campaign finance reports as of July 24, 2024
Candidate
Raised
Spent
Cash on hand
Eric Hovde (R)
$16,788,769[ a]
$13,609,814
$3,178,955
Rejani Raveendran (R)
$37,912[ b]
$29,884
$8,022
Stacey Klein (R) [ c]
$33,712
$33,712
$0
Source: Federal Election Commission [ 61]
Hypothetical polling
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[ d]
Margin of error
David Clarke
Mike Gallagher
Eric Hovde
Scott Mayer
Tom Tiffany
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)
December 11โ12, 2023
503 (LV)
ยฑ 4.4%
52%
โ
7%
6%
โ
36%
51%
โ
10%
โ
โ
39%
52%
โ
โ
6%
โ
42%
Public Policy Polling (D)
June 5โ6, 2023
507 (LV)
ยฑ 4.4%
40%
20%
3%
โ
10%
27%
45%
26%
โ
โ
โ
29%
Third-party and independent candidates [ edit ]
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation
Dates administered
Dates updated
Tammy Baldwin (D)
Eric Hovde (R)
Undecided[ e]
Margin
Real Clear Politics
August 23 - September 6, 2024
September 15, 2024
50.6%
45.4%
4.0%
Baldwin +5.2
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[ d]
Margin of error
Tammy Baldwin (D)
Eric Hovde (R)
Other
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [ A]
September 6โ9, 2024
626 (LV)
ยฑ 3.66%
46%
39%
4%[ f]
12%
Morning Consult
August 30 โ September 8, 2024
638 (LV)
ยฑ 4.0%
49%
42%
โ
9%
co/efficient
September 4โ6, 2024
917 (LV)
ยฑ 3.24%
49%
43%
โ
8%
CBS News/YouGov
September 3โ6, 2024
944 (LV)
ยฑ 4.0%
51%
43%
2%[ g]
4%
Marquette University
August 28 โ September 5, 2024
822 (RV)
ยฑ 4.6%
52%
48%
โ
1%
51%
45%
4%[ h]
1%
738 (LV)
ยฑ 4.7%
52%
47%
โ
1%
51%
45%
4%[ i]
1%
YouGov [ B]
August 23 โ September 3, 2024
900 (RV)
ยฑ 4.1%
49%
41%
โ
10%
The Trafalgar Group (R)
August 28โ30, 2024
1,083 (LV)
ยฑ 2.9%
50%
44%
โ
6%
CNN/SRSS
August 23โ29, 2024
976 (LV)
ยฑ 4.4%
51%
45%
3%[ j]
โ
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [ A]
August 25โ28, 2024
672 (LV)
ยฑ 3.55%
46%
41%
3%[ k]
11%
Emerson College [ C]
August 25โ28, 2024
850 (LV)
ยฑ 3.3%
49%
48%
โ
3%
BK Strategies [ D]
August 19โ21, 2024
600 (LV)
โ
49%
44%
โ
7%
Fabrizio Ward [ E]
August 19โ21, 2024
400 (LV)
ยฑ 4.9%
48%
43%
โ
9%
TIPP Insights (R) [ F]
August 12โ14, 2024
1,015 (RV)
ยฑ 3.4%
50%
42%
โ
8%
976 (LV)
ยฑ 3.4%
50%
43%
โ
7%
The Bullfinch Group [ G]
August 8โ11, 2024
500 (RV)
ยฑ 4.38%
50%
41%
โ
9%
NYT/Siena College
August 5โ8, 2024
661 (RV)
ยฑ 4.3%
51%
43%
โ
6%
661 (LV)
ยฑ 4.3%
51%
44%
โ
5%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [ H]
July 26โ August 2, 2024
404 (LV)
โ
50%
43%
โ
7%
Marquette University
July 24 โ August 1, 2024
877 (RV)
ยฑ 4.6%
47%
39%
โ
14%
53% [ l]
46%
โ
1%
50%
44%
4%[ m]
1%
801 (LV)
ยฑ 4.8%
48%
41%
โ
11%
52% [ l]
47%
โ
1%
51%
45%
4%[ m]
1%
Fox News
July 22โ24, 2024
1,046 (RV)
ยฑ 3.0%
54%
43%
โ
3%
Emerson College [ I]
July 22โ23, 2024
845 (RV)
ยฑ 3.3%
49%
43%
โ
8%
July 21, 2024
Joe Biden withdraws from the Presidential Race
YouGov [ B]
July 4โ12, 2024
900 (RV)
ยฑ 4.1%
50%
43%
1%[ n]
7%
831 (LV)
โ
50%
44%
1%[ o]
5%
Public Policy Polling (D) [ J]
July 10-11, 2024
548 (RV)
โ
51%
43%
โ
6%
North Star Opinion Research [ K]
July 6โ10, 2024
600 (LV)
ยฑ 4.0%
49%
41%
โ
10%
Remington Research Group (R) [ L]
June 29 โ July 1, 2024
593 (LV)
ยฑ 4.0%
48%
48%
โ
3%
SoCal Research (R) [ M]
June 30 โ July 2, 2024
490 (RV)
โ
50%
38%
โ
12%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) [ N]
June 28 โ July 2, 2024
600 (LV)
ยฑ 4.0%
50%
45%
โ
6%
Marquette University
June 12โ20, 2024
871 (RV)
ยฑ 4.6%
45%
38%
โ
17%
52% [ l]
47%
โ
โ
784 (LV)
ยฑ 4.9%
49%
40%
โ
11%
52% [ l]
47%
โ
โ
Emerson College [ C]
June 13โ18, 2024
1,000 (RV)
ยฑ 3.0%
46%
44%
โ
10%
Mainstreet Research/FAU
May 30โ31, 2024
338 (RV)
ยฑ 5.3%
43%
38%
8%[ p]
11%
290 (LV)
ยฑ 5.3%
47%
39%
7%[ q]
7%
KAConsulting (R) [ O]
May 15โ19, 2024
600 (RV)
โ
46%
42%
โ
12%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [ H]
May 6โ13, 2024
503 (LV)
ยฑ 4.4%
49%
37%
โ
14%
NYT/Siena College
April 28 โ May 9, 2024
614 (RV)
ยฑ 4.0%
49%
40%
โ
10%
614 (LV)
ยฑ 4.0%
49%
42%
โ
9%
Quinnipiac University
May 2โ6, 2024
1,457 (RV)
ยฑ 2.6%
54%
42%
2%[ r]
2%
Emerson College [ C]
April 25โ29, 2024
1,000 (RV)
ยฑ 3.0%
46%
43%
โ
11%
CBS News/YouGov
April 19โ25, 2024
1,245 (LV)
ยฑ 3.3%
48%
41%
3%[ s]
8%
Marquette University
April 3โ10, 2024
814 (RV)
ยฑ 4.8%
52%
47%
โ
1%
736 (LV)
ยฑ 5.0%
50%
50%
โ
โ
Emerson College
March 14โ18, 2024
1,000 (RV)
ยฑ 3.0%
45%
42%
โ
14%
Emerson College
February 20โ24, 2024
1,000 (RV)
ยฑ 3.0%
46%
39%
โ
15%
Hypothetical polling
Tammy Baldwin vs. Mike Gallagher
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[ d]
Margin of error
Tammy Baldwin (D)
Mike Gallagher (R)
Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [ P]
May 23โ25, 2023
500 (LV)
ยฑ 4.4%
47%
46%
7%
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[ d]
Margin of error
Generic Democrat
Generic Republican
Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [ P]
May 23โ25, 2023
500 (LV)
ยฑ 4.4%
42%
46%
12%
Tammy Baldwin vs. generic opponent
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[ d]
Margin of error
Tammy Baldwin (D)
Generic Opponent
Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [ P]
May 23โ25, 2023
500 (LV)
ยฑ 4.4%
40%
43%
17%
Campaign finance reports as of July 24, 2024
Candidate
Raised
Spent
Cash on hand
Tammy Baldwin (D)
$36,476,704
$30,268,932
$6,349,965
Eric Hovde (R)
$16,788,769[ t]
$13,609,814
$3,178,955
Phil Anderson (DTC)
$45,185
$27,590
$17,594
Thomas Leager (AF)
$23,716
$23,600
$156
Source: Federal Election Commission [ 40]
^ $13,000,000 of this total was self-funded by Hovde
^ $10,000 of this total was self-funded by Raveendran
^ Withdrew
^ a b c d e Key: A โ all adults RV โ registered voters LV โ likely voters V โ unclear
^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; Leager (I) and Anderson (I) with 1%
^ "Someone else" with 2%
^ Leager (I) and Anderson (I) with 2%
^ Leager (I) and Anderson (I) with 2%
^ "Other" with 2%; "Neither" with 1%
^ Leager with 1%; Anderson with 1%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
^ a b c d With voters who lean towards a given candidate
^ a b Anderson with 2%; Leager with 2%
^ "Other" with 1%
^ "Other" with 1%
^ "Another candidate" with 8%
^ "Another candidate" with 7%
^ "Wouldn't vote" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
^ "Someone else" with 3%
^ $13,000,000 of this total was self-funded by Hovde
Partisan clients
^ a b Andrea, Lawrence (April 12, 2022). "Tammy Baldwin launches re-election bid, setting up 2024 Senate battle in Wisconsin" . Milwaukee Journal Sentinel . Retrieved April 12, 2023 .
^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates" . www.ncsl.org . Retrieved May 13, 2023 .
^ "The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024" . CNN . July 20, 2024.
^ "Wisconsin" . The New York Times . ISSN 0362-4331 . Retrieved March 21, 2023 .
^ "Wisconsin | Full Senate results" . www.cnn.com . Retrieved March 21, 2023 .
^ "Wisconsin 2020 presidential election results" . www.cnn.com . Retrieved March 21, 2023 .
^ "Opinion | In Wisconsin, Tony Evers made a virtue of being dull" . Washington Post . ISSN 0190-8286 . Retrieved March 21, 2023 .
^ Wells, Dylan (April 12, 2022). "Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin announces reelection bid in Wisconsin" . Washington Post . Retrieved April 12, 2022 .
^ a b "GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Tammy Baldwin for Reelection to the US Senate" . Giffords . September 6, 2023. Retrieved September 7, 2023 .
^ Staff, A. O. L. (May 17, 2024). "Whitmer's Fight Like Hell PAC releases initial Senate endorsements" . www.aol.com . Retrieved June 14, 2024 .
^ Kurtz, Josh (July 10, 2024). "Dunn's new PAC backs 10 Democratic Senate candidates, including Alsobrooks" . Maryland Matters . Maryland Matters. Retrieved July 11, 2024 .
^ a b "NextGen PAC: Endorses Sen. Baldwin ahead of 2024 elections" . Wispolitics.com . May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023 .
^ "Actors' Equity Association Endorses Tammy Baldwin for United States Senate" . www.actorsequity.org . Actors' Equity Association. August 7, 2024. Retrieved September 11, 2024 .
^ "AFA Endorsed Candidates for 2024 Election" . Association of Flight Attendants-CWA . Retrieved April 29, 2024 .
^ a b "Wisconsin AFL-CIO Endorses Tammy Baldwin in 2024 Senate Race" . Wisconsin AFL-CIO . May 26, 2023. Retrieved May 28, 2023 .
^ "Wisconsin" . UAW Endorsements . Retrieved February 14, 2024 .
^ "Baldwin Campaign: United Steelworkers District 7 endorses Tammy Baldwin for U.S. Senate" . Wis Politics . November 8, 2024. Retrieved February 27, 2024 .
^ "314 Action Fund Endorses Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin for Re-Election. - 3.14 Action" .
^ "Bend the Arc Jewish Action PAC" . Bend the Arc: Jewish Action . Retrieved March 1, 2024 .
^ "Senate Candidates" . Council for a Livable World . Retrieved August 24, 2023 .
^ McIntire, Mary Ellen; Altimari, Altimari; Jackson, Herb (April 25, 2023). "At the Races: Survey Says What?" . Roll Call . Retrieved May 25, 2023 .
^ "Fair Wisconsin Political Action Committee (PAC)" . Fair Wisconsin PAC . May 22, 2023. Retrieved June 27, 2023 .
^ "2024 โ Feminist Majority PAC" . feministmajoritypac.org . Retrieved April 11, 2023 .
^ "Human Rights Campaign Endorses Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin for Re-election" . Human Rights Campaign . December 13, 2023. Retrieved December 14, 2023 .
^ "Tammy Baldwin" . JStreetPAC . Retrieved August 26, 2023 .
^ "JDCA Announces First Round of 2024 Senate Endorsements" . Jewish Democratic Council of America . Retrieved August 25, 2023 .
^ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs" . jacpac.org . Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023 .
^ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements" . League of Conservation Voters . Retrieved July 27, 2023 .
^ Fujii, Albert (April 24, 2023). "LGBTQ+ Victory Fund Endorses Tammy Baldwin for U.S. Senate" . LGBTQ+ Victory Fund . Retrieved May 10, 2023 .
^ "LPAC Announces April 2023 Endorsement Slate" . LPAC . April 18, 2023. Retrieved April 24, 2023 .
^ Communications (July 20, 2023). "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Sen. Tammy Baldwin for Reelection to the U.S. Senate for Wisconsin" . NARAL Pro-Choice America . Archived from the original on July 20, 2023. Retrieved July 20, 2023 .
^ Engst, Kodie (March 18, 2024). "Baldwin campaign: National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare PAC endorses Tammy Baldwin for U.S. Senate" . WisPolitics . Retrieved March 25, 2024 .
^ "Endorsed Candidates" . National Women's Political Caucus . Retrieved September 29, 2023 .
^ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents" . NRDC Action Fund . Retrieved September 20, 2023 .
^ "People For Endorses Seven New and Incumbent Senate Candidates in "Defend the Senate" Campaign" . People for the American Way (Press release). July 29, 2024. Retrieved July 29, 2024 .
^ "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorses Reproductive Rights Champions Baldwin, Brown, Gillibrand, Rosen, Tester for Re-Election in 2024" . www.plannedparenthoodaction.org . Retrieved July 31, 2023 .
^ "2024 Endorsements" . Population Connection Action Fund . Retrieved August 25, 2023 .
^ "2023 - 2024 Stonewall Endorsed Candidates" . Stonewall Democratic Club . Retrieved October 17, 2023 .
^ "Make a high-impact donationโwithout all the usual drama" . Swing Left .
^ a b "2024 Election United States Senate - Wisconsin" . fec.gov . Federal Election Commission . Retrieved August 11, 2023 .
^ a b "WEC Canvass - 2024 Partisan Primary" (PDF) . Wisconsin Elections Commission .
^ Edelman, Adam (February 20, 2024). "Republican Eric Hovde officially enters Wisconsin Senate race against Tammy Baldwin" . NBC News . Retrieved February 20, 2024 .
^ Candidate Tracking by Office - 2024 General Election - 11/5/2024 (Report). Wisconsin Elections Commission . May 29, 2024. Retrieved May 30, 2024 .
^ Bauer, Scott (August 8, 2023). "A longshot Republican is entering the US Senate race in Wisconsin against Sen. Tammy Baldwin" . Town and Country Today.
^ a b "Klein dropping U.S. Senate bid" . WisPolitics . March 28, 2024. Retrieved March 28, 2024 .
^ "Klein campaign: Transitions campaign from U.S. Senate to Wisconsin state Senate District 32" . Wispolitics . April 9, 2024. Retrieved April 9, 2024 .
^ Andrea, Lawrence (June 9, 2023). "Wisconsin Rep. Mike Gallagher says he will not run for Senate in 2024, leaving an open GOP field" . Milwaukee Journal Sentinel . Retrieved June 9, 2023 .
^ Andrea, Lawrence (March 19, 2024). "Scott Mayer won't enter Republican field to challenge Tammy Baldwin" . Milwaukee Journal Sentinel . Retrieved March 19, 2024 .
^ Lieffring, Christina (May 24, 2023). "Website names purchased, big cash raised, but Steil 'not running,' Gallagher mum on running against 'popular' Baldwin" . The Badger Project. Retrieved May 25, 2023 .
^ Glauber, Bill; Andrea, Lawrence (February 13, 2023). "Wisconsin Republicans Who Could Challenge Sen. Tammy Baldwin in 2024" . Milwaukee Journal Sentinel . Retrieved February 13, 2023 .
^ a b c d e f g Singer, Jeff (April 2, 2024). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/2" . Daily Kos . Retrieved April 2, 2024 . WI-Sen: Wealthy businessman Eric Hovde on Monday publicized endorsements from all five members of Wisconsin's GOP House delegation.
^ Andrea, Lawrence (August 1, 2023). "U.S. Rep. Tiffany says he will not run for Senate in 2024" . Milwaukee Journal Sentinel . Retrieved August 1, 2023 .
^ Glauber, Bill (March 20, 2023). "Scott Walker won't challenge Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin in 2024: 'I would be bored as a senator' " . Milwaukee Journal Sentinel . Retrieved March 20, 2023 .
^ a b Singer, Jeff (February 16, 2024). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 2/16" . Daily Kos . Retrieved February 16, 2024 . WI-Sen: Former GOP Gov. Scott Walker has endorsed wealthy businessman Eric Hovde
^ Vakil, Caroline (April 2, 2024). "Trump endorses Eric Hovde in Wisconsin Senate race" . The Hill . Retrieved April 2, 2024 .
^ Action, A. F. P. (February 21, 2024). "Americans for Prosperity Action Endorses Eric Hovde for U.S. Senate" . AFP Action . Retrieved February 21, 2024 .
^ Valentine, Jesse (February 26, 2024). "Republican Eric Hovde makes inconsistent statements about family history" . American Journal News. Retrieved March 2, 2024 .
^ Action, F.C.R. (February 21, 2024). "University of Wisconsin-Madison College Republicans Endorse Eric Hovde for U.S. Senate" . Twitter . Retrieved February 25, 2024 .
^ "Wisconsin Federation of College Republicans Endorsements" . March 11, 2024. Retrieved March 11, 2024 .
^ Marquez, Alexandra (October 24, 2023). "Republicans look to fill a glaring hole in their Senate recruitment map" . NBC News . Retrieved October 24, 2023 .
^ "2024 Election United States Senate - Wisconsin" . FEC.gov . Retrieved September 7, 2024 .
^ Frisk, Garrett (March 28, 2023). "First Declared Challenger to Tammy Baldwin is a Libertarian" . Diamond Eye Candidate Report .
^ Candidate Tracking by Office - 2024 General Election - 11/5/2024 (Report). Wisconsin Elections Commission . May 23, 2024. pp. 1โ2. Retrieved May 24, 2024 .
^ Bice, Daniel (August 5, 2024). "Thomas Leager is running for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin. He claims ties to Whitmer plot" . Milwaukee Journal Sentinel .
^ "2024 Senate Race ratings" . Cook Political Report . Retrieved January 25, 2023 .
^ "Senate Ratings" . Inside Elections . January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023 .
^ "2024 Senate" . Sabato's Crystal Ball . January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023 .
^ "2024 Senate prediction map" . elections2024.thehill.com/ . The Hill . June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024 .
^ "Election Ratings" . Elections Daily . August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023 .
^ " '24 Senate Forecast" . CNalysis . Retrieved November 21, 2023 .
^ "Battle for the Senate 2024" . RealClearPolitics . Retrieved August 5, 2024 .
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