2024 United States presidential election in Kansas

2024 United States presidential election in Kansas
Trump 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% 90–100%	Harris 40–50% 50–60% 60–70%
President before election; Joe Biden; Democratic	Elected President ; Donald Trump; Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Kansas took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Kansas voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Kansas has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.^[1]

Kansas was won by the Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump, with a margin of 16.2%. A sparsely populated Great Plains state that has not voted Democrat for president since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, Kansas was considered by nearly all major news organizations to be safely Republican at the presidential level. In recent years, Democrats have seen some success in the state, such as defeating the 2022 Kansas abortion referendum and holding the governorship since 2019. This leftward shift has been attributed to the growth of the Kansas City metropolitan area, more specifically Johnson County, the state's most populous, which supported Joe Biden four years prior, the first win for a Democrat in this county since 1916.^[2]

Trump improved on his 14.6% margin from 2020, albeit by only 1.5%. As such, Trump is the first Republican to win the White House without Johnson County since William McKinley in 1896, and the first since Kansas achieved statehood to win without Riley County, home to Fort Riley army base and Kansas State University, and Shawnee County, home to the state capital of Topeka.

Despite Harris' loss, this was the first time a losing Democratic presidential nominee has received more than 40% of the vote in Kansas since 1988. This is only the third presidential election that Kansas voted more Democratic than neighboring Missouri, the two prior times being 2020 and 1916.

Primary elections

Republican primary

The Kansas Republican Primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.

Kansas Republican primary, March 19, 2024^[3]^[4]
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	72,115	75.52%	39		39
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)	15,339	16.06%
None of the Names Shown	4,982	5.22%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	2,543	2.66%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	508	0.53%
Total:	95,487	100.00%	39		39

Democratic primary

The Kansas Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Illinois, and Ohio.

Kansas Democratic primary, March 19, 2024^[5]
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Bound	Unbound	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	35,906	83.7%	33		33
None of the Names Shown	4,433	10.3%
Marianne Williamson	1,494	3.5%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)	566	1.3%
Jason Palmer	516	1.2%
Total:	42,915	100.0%	33	6	39

Green primary

The Kansas Green primary was held from January 22, 2024, to February 5, 2024. It was a held digitally under a ranked-choice voting system. Jill Stein won with 100% of the vote, being ranked first by all 7 voting party members. Stein automatically received Kansas's 4 delegates to the 2024 Green National Convention.^[6]

Kansas Green primary, January 22, 2024 – February 5, 2024
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Delegate count
Jill Stein	7	100%	4
Total:	7	100%	4
Source:^[6]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report^[7]	Solid R	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections^[8]	Solid R	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[9]	Safe R	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill^[10]	Safe R	May 31, 2024
CNalysis^[11]	Very Likely R	November 4, 2024
CNN^[12]	Solid R	January 14, 2024
The Economist^[13]	Safe R	June 12, 2024
538^[14]	Solid R	October 3, 2024
NBC News^[15]	Safe R	October 6, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Other / Undecided
Fort Hays State University^[16]	September 26 – October 16, 2024	656 (A)	–	46%	37%	17%^[b]
		608 (A)		50%	39%	11%^[c]
		517 (RV)		48%	43%	9%^[d]

Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies^[17]^[A]	April 13–21, 2024	385 (LV)	–	48%	42%	10%
Emerson College^[18]	October 1–4, 2023	487 (RV)	± 4.4%	47%	31%	22%
Emerson College^[19]	October 27–29, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	50%	37%	13%
Emerson College^[20]	September 15–18, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	52%	36%	12%
Echelon Insights^[21]^[B]	August 31 – September 7, 2022	392 (LV)	± 7.5%	52%	41%	7%

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies^[17]^[A]	April 13–21, 2024	385 (LV)	–	44%	42%	14%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies^[17]^[A]	April 13–21, 2024	385 (LV)	–	53%	36%	11%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Ron DeSantis Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Echelon Insights^[21]^[B]	August 31 – September 7, 2022	392 (LV)	± 7.5%	50%	39%	11%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Kansas^[22]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald Trump JD Vance	741,464	57.18%	1.04%
	Democratic	Kamala Harris Tim Walz	531,989	41.03%	0.48%
	Independent	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (withdrawn) Nicole Shanahan (withdrawn)	15,806	1.22%	N/A
	Libertarian	Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat	7,406	0.58%	1.65%
	Write-in
Total votes			1,296,665	100.00%	N/A

By congressional district

Trump won 3 of 4 congressional districts.^[23]

District	Trump	Harris	Representative
1st	64.66%	33.52%	Tracey Mann
2nd	58.75%	39.31%	Jake LaTurner (118th Congress)
2nd	58.75%	39.31%	Derek Schmidt (119th Congress)
3rd	47.04%	51.16%	Sharice Davids
4th	60.93%	37.37%	Ron Estes

Notes

^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
^ "I do not plan on voting/cannot vote" & "Neither of the top two candidates" with 7% each
^ "Neither of the top two candidates" with 7%
^ "Neither of the top two candidates" with 6%

Partisan clients

^ ^a ^b ^c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
^ ^a ^b Poll sponsored by NetChoice

References

^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
^ "How Johnson County, Kansas, became a crucial battleground in the 2024 election". The Kansas City Star. August 4, 2024. Retrieved October 31, 2024.
^ "Kansas Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved March 18, 2024.
^ "Kansas Republican Presidential Nominating Process" (PDF). sos.ks.gov. March 19, 2024. Retrieved April 24, 2024.
^ "Kansas Presidential Primary". The AP. May 2, 2024. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
^ ^a ^b @KSGreenParty (February 8, 2024). "The Kansas Green Party has concluded its presidential primary. Seven Kansas Green Party members cast their ranked-choice ballot and all ranked @DrJillStein first. Jill Stein will receive all four of our delegates at the Presidential Nominating Convention. #GreenParty" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved May 31, 2024.
^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 4, 2024.
^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
^ "Kansas Speaks - Fall 2024 Statewide Public Opinion Survey" (PDF). Fort Hays State University. October 28, 2024.
^ ^a ^b ^c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
^ Mumford, Camille (October 12, 2023). "Kansas 2024 Poll: Trump Holds 16-point Lead Over Biden in Potential 2024 Rematch". Emerson Polling.
^ Mumford, Camille (November 2, 2022). "Kansas 2022: Governor Laura Kelly Holds Three-Point Lead Over AG Derek Schmidt in Gubernatorial Election; Senator Moran leads by 21 points for Re-election". Emerson Polling.
^ Mumford, Camille (September 21, 2022). "Kansas 2022: Democratic Governor Laura Kelly in Tight Race with A.G. Derek Schmidt in Gubernatorial Election". Emerson Polling.
^ ^a ^b Chavez, Krista (September 13, 2022). "New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech". NetChoice.
^ https://ent.sos.ks.gov/kssos_ent.html
^ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZHx5E0-5vuXxcZShBgsAl_vwAntkkanGqYQp0owNjoQ/edit?gid=0#gid=0

[key-16] Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[18] "I do not plan on voting/cannot vote" & "Neither of the top two candidates" with 7% each

[19] "Neither of the top two candidates" with 7%

[20] "Neither of the top two candidates" with 6%

[Kennedy-22] Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

[NC-27] Poll sponsored by NetChoice

[1] Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.

[2] "How Johnson County, Kansas, became a crucial battleground in the 2024 election". The Kansas City Star. August 4, 2024. Retrieved October 31, 2024.

[3] "Kansas Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved March 18, 2024.

[4] "Kansas Republican Presidential Nominating Process" (PDF). sos.ks.gov. March 19, 2024. Retrieved April 24, 2024.

[5] "Kansas Presidential Primary". The AP. May 2, 2024. Retrieved May 16, 2024.

[The_Kansas_Green_Party_has_conclude-6] @KSGreenParty (February 8, 2024). "The Kansas Green Party has concluded its presidential primary. Seven Kansas Green Party members cast their ranked-choice ballot and all ranked @DrJillStein first. Jill Stein will receive all four of our delegates at the Presidential Nominating Convention. #GreenParty" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[7] "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[8] "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[9] "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[10] "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved May 31, 2024.

[11] "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[12] "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.

[13] "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.

[14] Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 4, 2024.

[15] "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.

[17] "Kansas Speaks - Fall 2024 Statewide Public Opinion Survey" (PDF). Fort Hays State University. October 28, 2024.

[Kennedy24-21] "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.

[23] Mumford, Camille (October 12, 2023). "Kansas 2024 Poll: Trump Holds 16-point Lead Over Biden in Potential 2024 Rematch". Emerson Polling.

[24] Mumford, Camille (November 2, 2022). "Kansas 2022: Governor Laura Kelly Holds Three-Point Lead Over AG Derek Schmidt in Gubernatorial Election; Senator Moran leads by 21 points for Re-election". Emerson Polling.

[25] Mumford, Camille (September 21, 2022). "Kansas 2022: Democratic Governor Laura Kelly in Tight Race with A.G. Derek Schmidt in Gubernatorial Election". Emerson Polling.

[Echelon_Insights-26] Chavez, Krista (September 13, 2022). "New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech". NetChoice.

[28] ttps://ent.sos.ks.gov/kssos_ent.html

[29] ttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZHx5E0-5vuXxcZShBgsAl_vwAntkkanGqYQp0owNjoQ/edit?gid=0#gid=0

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