2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky

2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky
Trump 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% 90–100%	Harris 50–60%
President before election; Joe Biden; Democratic	Elected President ; Donald Trump; Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Kentucky voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Kentucky has 8 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.^[1]

A Southern state completely in the Bible Belt, Republicans have won Kentucky by double digits since 2000. The state last voted Democratic for fellow Southerner Bill Clinton in 1996.

Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden initially ran for re-election and became the party's presumptive nominee.^[2] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.^[3] Biden's withdrawal from the race made him the first eligible president not to stand for re-election since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968. Former Republican President Donald Trump ran for re-election to a second non-consecutive term after losing in 2020.^[4]

Trump's 64.5% vote share and 30.7% margin of victory were the best of any Republican in the state's history.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The Kentucky Democratic presidential primary was held on May 21, 2024, alongside the Oregon primary.

Kentucky Democratic primary, May 21, 2024^[5]
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	131,449	71.33%	43		43
Uncommitted	32,908	17.86%	8		8
Marianne Williamson	11,190	6.07%	0
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)	8,744	4.74%	0
Total:	184,291	100.00%	53	6	59

Republican primary

The Kentucky Republican caucuses were held on May 21, 2024, alongside the Oregon primary.

Kentucky Republican primary, May 21, 2024^[6]
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	215,044	85.0%	46		46
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)	16,232	6.4%
Uncommitted	8,984	3.5%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	7,803	3.1%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	2,461	1.0%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	1,640	0.7%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	900	0.4%
Total:	253,064	100.0%	46		46

General election

Candidates

The following candidates have qualified for the general election ballot as of September 8:^[7]

Donald Trump — Republican
Kamala Harris — Democratic
Jill Stein — Kentucky Party (national Green nominee)
Shiva Ayyadurai — Independent
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — Independent^[a]
Chase Oliver — Libertarian

Additionally, Kentucky voters have the option to write-in a name for president as long as said candidate files for office before October 25.^[8]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report^[9]	Solid R	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections^[10]	Solid R	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[11]	Safe R	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill^[12]	Safe R	December 14, 2023
CNalysis^[13]	Solid R	December 30, 2023
CNN^[14]	Solid R	January 14, 2024
The Economist^[15]	Safe R	June 12, 2024
538^[16]	Solid R	June 11, 2024
RCP^[17]	Solid R	June 26, 2024
NBC News^[18]	Safe R	October 6, 2024

Polling

Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies^[19]^[A]	April 13–21, 2024	402 (LV)	–	60%	35%	5%
Emerson College^[20]	October 1–3, 2023	450 (RV)	± 4.6%	55%	26%	19%
Public Policy Polling (D)^[21]	August 9–10, 2023	737 (V)	–	55%	34%	11%
co/efficient (R)^[22]	May 18–19, 2023	987 (LV)	± 3.1%	57%	33%	10%

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies^[19]^[A]	April 13–21, 2024	402 (LV)	–	52%	35%	13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies^[19]^[A]	April 13–21, 2024	402 (LV)	–	61%	29%	10%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky^[23]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald Trump JD Vance	1,336,230	64.55%	+2.50%
	Democratic	Kamala Harris Tim Walz	700,921	33.86%	–2.23%
	Independent	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (withdrawn) Nicole Shanahan (withdrawn)	16,753	0.81%	N/A
	Kentucky	Jill Stein Samson Kpadenou^[c]	7,538	0.36%	+0.33%
	Libertarian	Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat	6,409	0.31%	–0.92%
	Independent	Shiva Ayyadurai Crystal Ellis	1,014	0.05%	N/A
	American Solidarity	Peter Sonski (write-in) Lauren Onak (write-in)	610	0.03%	+0.01%
	Socialism and Liberation	Claudia De la Cruz (write-in) Karina Garcia (write-in)	389	0.02%	+0.02%
	Independent	Cornel West (write-in) Melina Abdullah (write-in)	174	0.01%	N/A
	Independent	James Soderna (write-in) Matthew Trewhella (write-in)	13	<0.01%	N/A
	Independent	Jay Bowman (write-in) De Bowman (write-in)	10	<0.01%	N/A
	Socialist Equality	Joseph Kishore (write-in) Jerry White (write-in)	8	<0.01%	N/A
	Independent	John Cheng (write-in) Wayne Waligorski (write-in)	4	<0.01%	N/A
	Independent	Billy Kelly (write-in) Jason Holderman (write-in)	4	<0.01%	N/A
	Independent	Cherunda Fox (write-in) Harlan McVay (write-in)	1	<0.01%	N/A
Total votes			2,070,078	100.00%

By congressional district

Trump won 5 of 6 congressional districts.^[24]

District	Trump	Harris	Representative
1st	72.99%	25.71%	James Comer
2nd	69.92%	28.61%	Brett Guthrie
3rd	39.62%	58.53%	Morgan McGarvey
4th	66.91%	31.37%	Thomas Massie
5th	81.32%	17.45%	Hal Rogers
6th	56.91%	41.15%	Andy Barr

Notes

^ Candidate has suspended campaign
^ ^a ^b ^c Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
^ Replacement for Butch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.

Partisan clients

^ ^a ^b ^c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC. Archived from the original on April 25, 2023. Retrieved April 25, 2023.
^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 21, 2024.
^ Orr, Gabby (November 16, 2022). "Former President Donald Trump announces a White House bid for 2024". CNN.com. Retrieved October 8, 2023.
^ "Kentucky Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved May 20, 2024.
^ "Kentucky Presidential Primary". The AP. July 2, 2024. Retrieved July 12, 2024.
^ "Candidate Filings with the Office of the Secretary of State". Kentucky Secretary of State. Retrieved September 8, 2024.
^ "Potential Candidates" (PDF). Kentucky Secretary of State. Retrieved September 8, 2024.
^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
^ ^a ^b ^c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
^ Mumford, Camille (October 6, 2023). "Kentucky 2023 Poll: Beshear Holds 16-Point Lead Over Cameron in Gubernatorial Election". Emerson Polling.
^ "Kentucky Survey Results" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. August 10, 2023.
^ "Kentucky Governor Memo 5.21 - co/efficient". co/efficient. May 22, 2023. Archived from the original on May 22, 2023.
^ "PRESIDENT and VICE PRESIDENT of the UNITED STATES". vrsws.sos.ky.gov. Kentucky State Board of Elections. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
^ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZHx5E0-5vuXxcZShBgsAl_vwAntkkanGqYQp0owNjoQ/edit?gid=0#gid=0

[8] Candidate has suspended campaign

[key-20] Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[27] Replacement for Butch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.

[Kennedy-22] Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

[1] Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.

[2] Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC. Archived from the original on April 25, 2023. Retrieved April 25, 2023.

[BidenPull-3] "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 21, 2024.

[4] Orr, Gabby (November 16, 2022). "Former President Donald Trump announces a White House bid for 2024". CNN.com. Retrieved October 8, 2023.

[5] "Kentucky Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved May 20, 2024.

[6] "Kentucky Presidential Primary". The AP. July 2, 2024. Retrieved July 12, 2024.

[7] "Candidate Filings with the Office of the Secretary of State". Kentucky Secretary of State. Retrieved September 8, 2024.

[9] "Potential Candidates" (PDF). Kentucky Secretary of State. Retrieved September 8, 2024.

[10] "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[11] "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[12] "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[13] "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[14] "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[15] "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.

[16] "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.

[17] Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.

[18] "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.

[19] "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.

[Kennedy24-21] "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.

[23] Mumford, Camille (October 6, 2023). "Kentucky 2023 Poll: Beshear Holds 16-Point Lead Over Cameron in Gubernatorial Election". Emerson Polling.

[24] "Kentucky Survey Results" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. August 10, 2023.

[25] "Kentucky Governor Memo 5.21 - co/efficient". co/efficient. May 22, 2023. Archived from the original on May 22, 2023.

[26] "PRESIDENT and VICE PRESIDENT of the UNITED STATES". vrsws.sos.ky.gov. Kentucky State Board of Elections. Retrieved November 6, 2024.

[28] ttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZHx5E0-5vuXxcZShBgsAl_vwAntkkanGqYQp0owNjoQ/edit?gid=0#gid=0

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