2024 United States presidential election in Maryland

2024 United States presidential election in Maryland
Turnout	72.35% 2.28 pp
Reporting	98.7%as of Nov. 23, 10:44 PM EST
Harris 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90%	Trump 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%
President before election; Joe Biden; Democratic	Elected President ; Donald Trump; Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Maryland took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Maryland voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Maryland has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.^[2]

Due to the progressive and culturally Northeastern influence of the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area—home to the majority of Maryland's population and most of Maryland's significant African American population—Democrats have consistently won Maryland's electoral votes by double-digit margins since 1992. While regions like Western Maryland and the Eastern Shore remain rural, conservative, culturally Southern, and predominantly white, their impact is outweighed by the state's urban centers. In 2020, Joe Biden from neighboring Delaware won Maryland by 33 points. Maryland was widely expected to remain a safe blue state in 2024.^[3]

Harris comfortably won the state by about 28.5%, but by a margin 4 points lower than Joe Biden. Trump became the first Republican presidential nominee to surpass one million votes in Maryland since George W. Bush in 2004. Larry Hogan, who was concurrently running for the U.S. Senate, ran 17 points ahead of Trump.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The Maryland Democratic primary was held on May 14, 2024,^[4] alongside primaries in Nebraska and West Virginia.

Maryland Democratic primary, May 14, 2024^[5]
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	591,523	87.1%	95		95
Uncommitted	66,168	9.8%
Marianne Williamson	12,935	1.9%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)	8,188	1.2%
Total:	678,814	100.0%	95	23	118

Republican primary

The Maryland Republican primary was held on May 14, 2024,^[4] alongside primaries in Nebraska and West Virginia.

Maryland Republican primary, May 14, 2024
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	205,996	77.7%	37	0	37
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)	56,506	21.3%	0	0	0
Uncommitted	2,607	1.0%	0	0	0
Total:	265,109	100.0%	37	0	37

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report^[6]	Solid D	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections^[7]	Solid D	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[8]	Safe D	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill^[9]	Safe D	December 14, 2023
CNalysis^[10]	Solid D	December 30, 2023
CNN^[11]	Solid D	January 14, 2024
The Economist^[12]	Safe D	June 12, 2024
538^[13]	Solid D	June 11, 2024
RCP^[14]	Solid D	June 26, 2024
NBC News^[15]	Safe D	October 6, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Morning Consult	October 22–31, 2024	490 (LV)	± 5.0%	64%	31%	5%
ActiVote	October 6–30, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	64%	37%	–
Braun Research^[A]	October 17–22, 2024	1,000 (LV)	± 3.6%	61%	33%	7%^[b]
Braun Research^[A]	October 17–22, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.6%	59%	34%	7%^[c]
Emerson College	October 19–21, 2024	865 (LV)	± 3.2%	64%	34%	2%
Emerson College	October 19–21, 2024	865 (LV)	± 3.2%	63%	33%	4%^[d]
Morning Consult	October 10–15, 2024	490 (LV)	± 4.0%	64%	31%	4%
ActiVote	September 8 – October 14, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	63%	37%	–
Braun Research^[A]	September 19–23, 2024	1,012 (LV)	± 3.5%	64%	32%	5%^[e]
Braun Research^[A]	September 19–23, 2024	1,012 (RV)	± 3.5%	62%	32%	6%^[f]
Morning Consult	September 9–18, 2024	516 (LV)	± 4.0%	61%	33%	6%
Public Policy Polling (D)	September 16–17, 2024	543 (RV)	± 4.2%	64%	33%	3%
Emerson College	September 12–13, 2024	890 (LV)	± 3.2%	65%	33%	2%
Emerson College	September 12–13, 2024	890 (LV)	± 3.2%	63%	32%	5%
Morning Consult	August 30 – September 8, 2024	516 (LV)	± 4.0%	62%	34%	4%
Gonzales Research	August 24–30, 2024	820 (RV)	± 3.5%	56%	35%	10%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)^[B]	August 14–20, 2024	700 (LV)	± 4.0%	64%	32%	4%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Jill Stein Green	Undecided
Chism Strategies	October 28–30, 2024	510 (LV)	± 4.34%	56%	33%	0%	0%	1%	10%^[g]
YouGov^[h]	October 23–27, 2024	500 (LV)	± 5.2%	61%	34%	–	0%	2%	5%
University of Maryland, Baltimore County	September 23–28, 2024	863 (LV)	± 3.3%	57%	35%	2%	0%	1%	5%^[i]
Braun Research^[A]	September 19–23, 2024	1,012 (LV)	± 3.5%	63%	31%	–	1%	1%	5%^[j]
Braun Research^[A]	September 19–23, 2024	1,012 (RV)	± 3.5%	61%	31%	–	1%	1%	6%^[k]
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)^[B]	August 14–20, 2024	700 (LV)	± 4.0%	59%	29%	5%	1%	1%	5%

Hypothetical polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)^[16]	June 19–20, 2024	635 (V)	± 3.9%	56%	30%	15%
Emerson College^[17]	May 6–8, 2024	1,115 (RV)	± 2.9%	56%	35%	9%
Public Policy Polling (D)^[18]^[C]	May 6–7, 2024	719 (V)	± 3.7%	60%	32%	8%
Emerson College^[19]	February 12–13, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	55%	32%	13%
Gonzales Research^[20]	January 23 – February 2, 2024	815 (RV)	± 3.5%	53%	32%	15%
Gonzales Research^[21]	September 18–28, 2023	818 (LV)	± 3.5%	56%	30%	13%
Gonzales Research^[22]	May 30 – June 6, 2023	841 (RV)	± 3.5%	52%	35%	13%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Emerson College^[17]	May 6–8, 2024	1,115 (RV)	± 2.9%	50%	33%	6%	4%	1%	6%
Emerson College^[19]	February 12−13, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	47%	32%	6%	1%	1%	13%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
Gonzales Research^[20]	January 23 – February 2, 2024	815 (RV)	± 3.5%	45%	28%	18%	9%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Other / Undecided
Gonzales Research^[20]	January 23 – February 2, 2024	815 (RV)	± 3.5%	50%	36%	14%
Gonzales Research^[21]	September 18–28, 2023	818 (LV)	± 3.5%	53%	36%	11%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
Gonzales Research^[21]	September 18–28, 2023	818 (LV)	± 3.5%	56%	35%	9%
Gonzales Research^[22]	May 30 – June 6, 2023	841 (RV)	± 3.5%	51%	37%	12%

Joe Biden vs. Vivek Ramaswamy

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Vivek Ramaswamy Republican	Other / Undecided
Gonzales Research^[21]	September 18–28, 2023	818 (LV)	± 3.5%	56%	29%	15%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Maryland^[23]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Kamala Harris Tim Walz	1,870,812	62.40%
	Republican	Donald Trump JD Vance	1,028,785	34.31%
	Libertarian	Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat	15,436
	Green	Jill Stein Butch Ware	32,376
	Independent	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (withdrawn) Nicole Shanahan (withdrawn)	28,364
	Write-in
Total votes

By county

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Kent (county seat and largest municipality: Chestertown)
Talbot (county seat and largest municipality: Easton)

Notes

^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Someone else" with 2%
^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Someone else" with 2%
^ "Someone else" with 2%; "Undecided" with 2%
^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%
^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 5%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%
^ "Someone else" with 4%
^ Poll sponsored by the University of Maryland, College Park.
^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%
^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 5%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%

Partisan clients

^ ^a ^b ^c Poll sponsored by The Washington Post and the University of Maryland, College Park
^ ^a ^b Poll commissioned by AARP
^ This poll was commissioned by EMILY's List, which supports Biden.

References

^ "Unofficial 2024 Presidential General Election turnout" (PDF). Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved November 20, 2024.
^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
^ ^a ^b "Legislation - HB0535". Maryland General Assembly. Archived from the original on April 24, 2023. Retrieved April 24, 2023.
^ "Maryland Presidential Primary Election Results 2024". NBC News. May 21, 2024. Retrieved June 17, 2024.
^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
^ "Alsobrooks leads Hogan by 11". Public Policy Polling. June 24, 2024.
^ ^a ^b Mumford, Camille (May 9, 2024). "Maryland 2024 Poll: Alsobrooks 42%, Trone 41%". Emerson Polling.
^ "Public Policy Polling (D)" (PDF).
^ ^a ^b Mumford, Camille (February 15, 2024). "Maryland 2024 Poll: Former Gov. Larry Hogan Starts Strong in Election for Open Senate Seat". Emerson Polling.
^ ^a ^b ^c "Gonzales Research" (PDF).
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d "Gonzales Research" (PDF).
^ ^a ^b Sears, Bryan P. (June 14, 2023). "Poll: Biden's independent voter trouble and a hypothetical contest against Wes Moore".
^ "Unofficial 2024 Presidential General Election Results for President and Vice President of the United States". elections.maryland.gov. Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved October 24, 2024.

External links

Media related to United States presidential election in Maryland, 2024 at Wikimedia Commons

[Key-16] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[18] "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Someone else" with 2%

[19] "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Someone else" with 2%

[20] "Someone else" with 2%; "Undecided" with 2%

[21] "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%

[22] "No opinion/Skipped" with 5%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%

[24] "Someone else" with 4%

[25] Poll sponsored by the University of Maryland, College Park.

[26] "Some other candidate" with 2%

[27] "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%

[28] "No opinion/Skipped" with 5%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%

[UMD-17] Poll sponsored by The Washington Post and the University of Maryland, College Park

[AARP-23] Poll commissioned by AARP

[emily-32] This poll was commissioned by EMILY's List, which supports Biden.

[1] "Unofficial 2024 Presidential General Election turnout" (PDF). Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved November 20, 2024.

[2] Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.

[3] "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 15, 2024.

[hb535-4] "Legislation - HB0535". Maryland General Assembly. Archived from the original on April 24, 2023. Retrieved April 24, 2023.

[5] "Maryland Presidential Primary Election Results 2024". NBC News. May 21, 2024. Retrieved June 17, 2024.

[6] "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[7] "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[8] "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[9] "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[10] "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[11] "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.

[12] "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.

[13] Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.

[14] "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.

[15] "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.

[29] "Alsobrooks leads Hogan by 11". Public Policy Polling. June 24, 2024.

[MD-Emerson_College-30] Mumford, Camille (May 9, 2024). "Maryland 2024 Poll: Alsobrooks 42%, Trone 41%". Emerson Polling.

[31] "Public Policy Polling (D)" (PDF).

[MD-Emerson-33] Mumford, Camille (February 15, 2024). "Maryland 2024 Poll: Former Gov. Larry Hogan Starts Strong in Election for Open Senate Seat". Emerson Polling.

[Gonzales_Research-34] "Gonzales Research" (PDF).

[projects.fivethirtyeight.com-35] "Gonzales Research" (PDF).

[marylandmatters.org-36] Sears, Bryan P. (June 14, 2023). "Poll: Biden's independent voter trouble and a hypothetical contest against Wes Moore".

[37] "Unofficial 2024 Presidential General Election Results for President and Vice President of the United States". elections.maryland.gov. Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved October 24, 2024.

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