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2024 United States presidential election in Michigan

From Wikipedia - Reading time: 38 min

For related races, see 2024 United States presidential election.
2024 United States presidential election in Michigan
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Projected electoral vote 15 0
Popular vote 2,818,659 2,738,272
Percentage 49.74% 48.32%
County results
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in Michigan
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Michigan took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, and as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Michigan voters chose electors for Donald Trump and JD Vance to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Michigan has 15 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1] Michigan was considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024.[2]

An Upper Midwestern state in the Rust Belt, no Republican presidential candidate has won Michigan with a majority since George H. W. Bush in 1988, and the last Republican to win by double digits was Ronald Reagan in his 49-state landslide four years earlier. The state was formerly part of the Blue Wall, having voted Democratic in every presidential election between 1992 and 2012, but only doing so by a double-digit margin in 1996 and 2008. Then, in 2016, Republican Donald Trump carried Michigan by a very narrow 0.23% in an unexpected sweep of the Midwest and Rust Belt which earned him a presidential victory, only to have the state flipped back into the Democratic column by Joe Biden four years later with a 2.78% margin of victory as the former lost the presidency to the latter. However, it was the worst margin for a victorious Democrat dating back to the 2.01% margin of victory for John F. Kennedy in the state in the extremely close 1960 election. One key issue for the Democratic nominee was winning over the traditionally Democratic Arab-American voting bloc, with polls indicating that they may be alienated by the Democrats due to their pro-Israel policy.[3]

Michigan is purple to slightly blue, with Democrats holding all statewide offices since 2019. Due to the state's nearly even partisan lean and the close margin by which it was decided in 2016 and 2020, the race was considered to be a tossup. On April 18, 2024, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was nominated by Michigan's Natural Law Party.[4] Despite suspending his campaign on August 23 and legal attempts to withdraw himself, the Michigan Supreme Court ruled that his name will remain on the ballot.[5][6][7] Jill Stein from the Green Party has ballot access.[8][9]

Michigan was frequently considered the most difficult swing state for Trump to regain. However, contrary to what many polls said, Donald Trump flipped Michigan back into the Republican column, defeating Kamala Harris by 1.5 percentage points, nearly matching the national results. This was also the first time since 1988 in which Michigan voted more Republican than neighboring Wisconsin, and the first election since 1992 in which Michigan was not the most Democratic-leaning of the three Rust Belt swing states (including Wisconsin and Pennsylvania). Trump’s victory made him the first Republican candidate to carry Michigan twice since Ronald Reagan did so in 1980 and 1984. He also won the state by a higher margin than in 2016.

Trump became the first Republican candidate to win Michigan (or the election in general) without carrying Kent County, home of Grand Rapids, since Charles Evans Hughes in 1916; Kent County had long been key to Republican victories in Michigan in past elections. Notably, Trump became the first Republican to win a plurality of the vote in Dearborn since 2000.[10] Trump became the first Republican candidate to win Muskegon County and the Lower Peninsula since George H.W. Bush in 1988. He also became the first Republican candidate to win Michigan without carrying Leelanau County.

As of 2024, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, hold the longest running active streak among states of voting for the winning presidential candidate, having done so in the latest five presidential elections.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Michigan Democratic presidential primary

The Michigan Democratic primary was held on February 27, 2024, as one of the earliest races of the larger Democratic primaries. Incumbent president Joe Biden won in a landslide, although he would lose 2 delegates and over 100,000 votes to the uncommitted option, which was fueled by pro-Palestine protest votes opposing Biden's campaign due to his handling of the Israel–Hamas war.[11]

Popular vote share by county
  Biden
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Michigan Democratic primary, February 27, 2024[12]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 625,221 81.1% 115 115
Uncommitted 101,623 13.2% 2 2
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 22,865 3.0%
Dean Phillips 20,684 2.7%
Write-in votes 178 <0.1%
Total: 770,571 100% 117 23 140

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Michigan Republican presidential nominating contests

Following a schism in the state Republican Party, Michigan held two Republican nominating contests. The primary was held on February 27, 2024, and awarded a small amount of delegates to former president Donald Trump, who won in a landslide, and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley. The party later held a caucus on March 2, in which Trump won the remainder of delegates.[11]

Popular vote share by county
  Trump
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Michigan Republican primary, February 27, 2024[13][14]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 761,163 68.12% 12 0 12
Nikki Haley 297,124 26.59% 4 0 4
Uncommitted 33,649 3.01% 0 0 0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 13,456 1.20% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 4,794 0.43% 0 0 0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 3,702 0.33% 0 0 0
Ryan Binkley 2,348 0.21% 0 0 0
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) 1,077 0.10% 0 0 0
Total: 1,117,313 100.00% 16 0 16
Michigan Republican caucus, March 2, 2024[15]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 1,575 97.77% 39 0 39
Nikki Haley 36 2.23% 0 0 0
Total: 1,611 100.00% 39 0 39
Source: [16]

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

The following candidates had qualified for the general election ballot:[17]

Additionally, voters had the option to write-in candidates who file a letter of intent by October 25.[18]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[19] Tossup November 4, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] Lean D November 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[21] Tossup November 4, 2024
CNN[22] Tossup November 4, 2024
CNalysis[23] Likely D November 4, 2024
The Economist[24] Lean D November 5, 2024
538[25] Lean D November 4, 2024
Inside Elections[26] Tossup November 4, 2024
NBC News[27] Tossup November 4, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
[b] 		Margin
270ToWin October 23 – November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.6% 46.8% 4.6% Harris +1.8%
538 through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.0% 47.0% 5.0% Harris +1.0%
Silver Bulletin through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.4% 47.2% 4.4% Harris +1.2%
The Hill/DDHQ through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.7% 48.3% 3.0% Harris +0.4%
Average 48.4% 47.3% 4.3% Harris 1.1%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
AtlasIntel[28] November 3–4, 2024 1,113 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 50% 2%
Research Co.[29] November 2–3, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 49% 47% 4%
Trafalgar Group (R)[30] November 1–3, 2024 1,079 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 48% 5%[d]
Patriot Polling[31] November 1–3, 2024 858 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 49% 2%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[32] November 1–2, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 47% 6%[e]
AtlasIntel[33] November 1–2, 2024 1,198 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 50% 2%
Emerson College[34] October 30 – November 2, 2024 790 (LV) ± 3.4% 50% 48% 2%[f]
51%[g] 49% –
Mitchell Research[35][A] October 29 – November 2, 2024 585 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 48% 2%
New York Times/Siena College[36] October 29 – November 2, 2024 998 (RV) ± 3.5% 45% 45% 9%
998 (LV) 47% 47% 6%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[37] October 25 – November 2, 2024 733 (RV) ± 3.6% 48% 46% 6%[h]
714 (LV) 49% 47% 4%[i]
ActiVote[38] October 8 – November 2, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 50% 50% –
Rasmussen Reports (R)[39][B] October 24 – November 1, 2024 908 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 48% 3%
AtlasIntel[40] October 30–31, 2024 1,136 (LV) ± 3.0% 48.7% 49.3% 2%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[41] October 29–31, 2024 800 (LV) – 48% 48% 4%
YouGov[42][C] October 25–31, 2024 985 (RV) ± 3.9% 50% 46% 4%
942 (LV) 50% 47% 3%
Morning Consult[43] October 22−31, 2024 1,108 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 48% 3%
Marist College[44] October 27–30, 2024 1,356 (RV) ± 3.3% 51% 48% 1%[j]
1,214 (LV) ± 3.5% 51% 48% 1%[j]
Echelon Insights[45] October 27–30, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 48% 4%
Mitchell Research[46][A] October 28–29, 2024 – (LV) ± 2.5% 47% 48% 5%
AtlasIntel[47] October 25–29, 2024 938 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 49% 3%
Quantus Insights (R)[48][D] October 26–28, 2024 844 (LV) ± 3.4% 49% 49% 2%
The Washington Post[49] October 24–28, 2024 1,003 (RV) ± 3.7% 45% 47% 8%
1,003 (LV) 47% 46% 7%
Fox News[50] October 24–28, 2024 1,275 (RV) ± 2.5% 50% 48% 2%
988 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 49% 2%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[51] October 26–27, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 48% 5%[k]
Emerson College[52][E] October 25–27, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 49% 3%[f]
49% 50%[g] 1%[f]
Susquehanna Polling & Research[53] October 23–27, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 52% 47% 1%
Patriot Polling[54] October 24–26, 2024 796 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 50% 1%
CES/YouGov[55] October 1–25, 2024 2,347 (A) – 52% 45% 3%
2,336 (LV) 51% 46% 3%
Quinnipiac University[56] October 17–21, 2024 1,136 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 46% 4%
Trafalgar Group (R)[57] October 18−20, 2024 1,090 (LV) ± 2.9% 44% 46% 10%[e]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[58] October 16–20, 2024 756 (RV) ± 4.0% 48% 46% 6%
705 (LV) 50% 46% 4%
The Bullfinch Group[59] October 11−18, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 53% 45% 2%
51% 43% 6%[l]
AtlasIntel[60] October 12–17, 2024 1,529 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 50% 3%
RMG Research[61][F] October 10–16, 2024 789 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 48% 4%[m]
49%[g] 49% 2%
Morning Consult[43] October 6−15, 2024 1,065 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 47% 4%
Washington Post/Schar School[62] September 30 – October 15, 2024 687 (RV) ± 4.6% 46% 47% 7%
687 (LV) 49% 47% 4%
Mitchell Research[63][A] October 14, 2024 589 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 48% 5%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[64][B] October 9–14, 2024 1,058 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 48% 4%
SoCal Strategies (R)[65][G] October 10–13, 2024 692 (LV) ± 3.7% 49% 48% 3%
Michigan State University/YouGov[66] September 23 – October 10, 2024 845 (LV) – 52% 48% –
InsiderAdvantage (R)[67] October 8–9, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 48% 6%[d]
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)[68][H] October 6–9, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 49% 3%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[69][I] October 2–8, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 49% 3%[n]
ActiVote[70] September 15 – October 9, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 51% 49% –
Emerson College[71] October 5–8, 2024 950 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 49% 2%[f]
50%[g] 50% –
Wall Street Journal[72] September 28 – October 8, 2024 600 (RV) ± 5.0% 49% 47% 4%
Research Co.[73] October 5–7, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 46% 44% 10%[o]
51%[g] 48% 1%[o]
Quinnipiac University[74] October 3–7, 2024 1,007 (LV) ± 3.1% 47% 51% 2%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[75][J] September 24 – October 2, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 46% 6%
Mitchell Research[76][A] September 30, 2024 709 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 49% 3%
Trafalgar Group (R)[77] September 28–30, 2024 1,086 (LV) ± 2.9% 44% 47% 9%[e]
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[78][K] September 23–29, 2024 404 (LV) ± 4.9% 47% 49% 4%
RMG Research[79][F] September 24–27, 2024 789 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 46% 4%[p]
50%[g] 47% 3%
New York Times/Siena College[80] September 21–26, 2024 688 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 47% 8%
688 (LV) 48% 47% 5%
AtlasIntel[81] September 20–25, 2024 918 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 51% 2%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[82] September 19–25, 2024 416 (LV) – 51% 48% 1%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[83] September 19–25, 2024 894 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 47% 4%
800 (LV) 50% 47% 3%
Rodriguez Gudelunas Strategies[84][L] September 19–23, 2024 400 (LV) – 51% 45% 4%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[85][B] September 19−22, 2024 1,086 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 48% 4%
Emerson College[86] September 15–18, 2024 875 (LV) ± 3.2% 49% 47% 4%[f]
50%[g] 49% 1%[f]
Morning Consult[43] September 9−18, 2024 1,297 (LV) ± 3.0% 52% 44% 4%
Marist College[87] September 12−17, 2024 1,282 (RV) ± 3.2% 50% 47% 3%[j]
1,138 (LV) ± 3.4% 52% 47% 1%[j]
Quinnipiac University[88] September 12–16, 2024 905 (LV) ± 3.3% 51% 46% 3%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[89] September 11–12, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 49% 3%[n]
Mitchell Research[90][A] September 11, 2024 580 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 48% 4%
Morning Consult[43] August 30 – September 8, 2024 1,368 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 46% 5%
co/efficient (R)[91] September 4–6, 2024 931 (LV) ± 3.2% 47% 47% 6%
CBS News/YouGov[92] September 3–6, 2024 1,077 (LV) ± 3.7% 50% 49% 1%
Patriot Polling[93] September 1–3, 2024 822 (RV) – 48% 48% 4%
Cygnal (R)[94] August 28 – September 1, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 46% 7%
Trafalgar Group (R)[95] August 28–30, 2024 1,089 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 47% 6%
Emerson College[96] August 25–28, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 50% 47% 3%[q]
51%[g] 48% 1%[r]
ActiVote[97] July 28 – August 28, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 50% 50% –
EPIC-MRA[98] August 23–26, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 47% 7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[99] August 23–26, 2024 651 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 47% 4%
702 (RV) 49% 46% 5%
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
YouGov[100][M] August 15–23, 2024 500 (A) ± 5.0% 44% 44% 12%[s]
– (LV) ± 6.0% 47% 48% 5%
TIPP Insights[101][N] August 20–22, 2024 741 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 46% 6%
August 19–22, 2024 Democratic National Convention
Fabrizio Ward (R)[102][O] August 19–21, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 46% 48% 6%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[103][P] August 13–19, 2024 1,093 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 47% 5%
Focaldata[104] August 6–16, 2024 702 (LV) ± 3.7% 53% 47% –
The Bullfinch Group[105][Q] August 8–11, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 48% 43% 9%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[106][I] August 7–11, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 48% 4%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[107] August 6–8, 2024 800 (LV) – 49% 47% 4%
New York Times/Siena College[108] August 5–8, 2024 619 (RV) ± 4.8% 45% 48% 7%
619 (LV) 50% 46% 5%
Navigator Research (D)[109] July 31 – August 8, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 46% 7%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[110] July 26 – August 8, 2024 406 (LV) – 49% 46% 6%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[111][R] July 23–29, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 45% 10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[112] July 24–28, 2024 706 (RV) ± 4.0% 53% 42% 4%
SoCal Strategies (R)[113][S] July 25–26, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 46% 49% 5%
Fox News[114] July 22–24, 2024 1,012 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 49% 2%
Emerson College[115] July 22–23, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.4% 45% 46% 9%
49%[g] 51% –
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden announces his withdrawal; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy.
July 19, 2024 Republican National Convention concludes
July 13, 2024 Attempted assassination of Donald Trump
Public Policy Polling (D)[116][T] July 11–12, 2024 568 (RV) – 46% 48% 6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[117] May 7–13, 2024 704 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 47% 9%
New York Times/Siena College[118] October 22 – November 3, 2023 616 (RV) ± 4.4% 45% 47% 8%
616 (LV) 48% 46% 6%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
AtlasIntel[28] November 3–4, 2024 1,113 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 50% – 2% 0% –
AtlasIntel[33] November 1–2, 2024 1,198 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 49% – 2% 0% 1%
New York Times/Siena College[36] October 29 – November 2, 2024 998 (RV) ± 3.5% 42% 44% 1% 2% 2% 9%
998 (LV) 45% 45% 0% 2% 1% 7%
Focaldata[119] October 3 – November 1, 2024 2,092 (LV) – 50% 45% – 1% 1% 3%
1,941 (RV) ± 2.1% 51% 44% – 1% 1% 3%
2,092 (A) – 50% 44% – 1% 1% 4%
AtlasIntel[40] October 30–31, 2024 1,136 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 49% – 2% 0% 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[120] October 28–31, 2024 1,731 (LV) – 47% 47% – 1% 1% 4%
YouGov[42][C] October 25–31, 2024 985 (RV) ± 3.9% 47% 45% 0% 2% – 6%
942 (LV) 48% 45% 0% 2% – 5%
AtlasIntel[47] October 25–29, 2024 938 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 49% – 2% 0% 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[121] October 25–27, 2024 728 (LV) – 49% 48% – 1% 0% 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[122] October 20–22, 2024 1,115 (LV) – 47% 47% – 1% 0% 5%
Quinnipiac University[56] October 17–21, 2024 1,136 (LV) ± 2.9% 49% 46% 1% 1% 0% 3%[t]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[58] October 16–20, 2024 756 (RV) ± 4.0% 47% 45% – 1% 2% 5%
705 (LV) 49% 46% – 1% 2% 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[123] October 16–18, 2024 1,008 (LV) – 47% 47% – 0% 1% 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[124] October 12–14, 2024 682 (LV) – 47% 47% – 0% 1% 5%
Quinnipiac University[74] October 3–7, 2024 1,007 (LV) ± 3.1% 47% 50% 1% 0% 1% 1%[t]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[125] September 27 – October 2, 2024 839 (LV) – 48% 46% – 0% 1% 5%
New York Times/Siena College[80] September 21–26, 2024 688 (RV) ± 4.0% 43% 46% – 2% 2% 7%
688 (LV) 46% 46% – 2% 1% 5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[83] September 19–25, 2024 894 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 45% – 1% 2% 3%
800 (LV) 50% 46% – 1% 1% 2%
Remington Research Group (R)[126][U] September 16–20, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 47% 0% 1% – 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[127] September 16–19, 2024 993 (LV) – 46% 45% – 0% 1% 8%
Quinnipiac University[88] September 12–16, 2024 905 (LV) ± 3.3% 50% 45% 0% 2% 0% 3%[t]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[128] September 6–9, 2024 556 (LV) – 48% 45% – 1% 1% 5%
YouGov[129][C] August 23 – September 3, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.6% 48% 43% 1% 1% – 7%[n]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[130] August 25–28, 2024 1,071 (LV) – 47% 44% – 1% 1% 7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[99] August 23–26, 2024 651 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 47% – 0% 2% 2%
702 (RV) 48% 46% – 1% 2% 3%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.[u]
Natural Law 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Others/
Undecided
[v] 		Margin
Race to the WH through October 7, 2024 October 13, 2024 47.0% 46.9% 1.9% 0.9% 0.6% — 2.7% Harris +0.1%
270toWin October 7 – 11, 2024 October 11, 2024 47.0% 46.6% 2.3% 0.3% 1.0% 0.8% 2.0% Harris +0.4%
Average 47.0% 46.8% 2.1% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 1.9% Harris +0.2%


Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Natural Law 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
Mitchell Research[35][A] October 29 – November 2, 2024 585 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 48% 0% 1% 1% 1% –
Echelon Insights[45] October 27–30, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 47% 1% 0% 0% 0% 5%
EPIC-MRA[131][V] October 24–28, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 45% 3% 1% 3% – –
Fox News[50] October 24–28, 2024 1,275 (RV) ± 2.5% 49% 45% 3% 1% 0% 1% 1%
988 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 46% 3% 1% 0% 1% 1%
CNN/SSRS[132] October 23–28, 2024 726 (LV) ± 4.7% 48% 43% 3% 1% 2% 0% 3%
Suffolk University/USA Today[133] October 24–27, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 47% 1% 1% 1% 0% 3%[w]
Glengariff Group[134][W] October 22–24, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 44% 4% – 2% 1% 2%
University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[135] October 16–24, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.5% 49% 45% 1% 0% 0% 1% 4%[w]
AtlasIntel[60] October 12–17, 2024 1,529 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 50% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1%
Mitchell Research[63][A] October 14, 2024 589 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 47% 0% 0% 1% 1% 4%
Marketing Resource Group[136] October 7–11, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 44% 3% – 2% – 6%[x]
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[69][I] October 2–8, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 46% 3% 0% 1% 0% 4%
Wall Street Journal[72] September 28 – October 8, 2024 600 (RV) ± 5.0% 47% 45% 2% 1% 1% 1% 3%
Glengariff Group[137][W] October 1–4, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 44% 5% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Mitchell Research[76][A] September 30, 2024 709 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 47% 2% 0% 1% 1% 2%[w]
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[78][K] September 23–29, 2024 404 (LV) ± 4.9% 46% 48% 2% 1% 0% 0% 3%
AtlasIntel[81] September 20–25, 2024 918 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 50% 0% – 2% 0% 1%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[82] September 19–25, 2024 416 (LV) – 49% 46% 0% 1% 2% – 2%
University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[138] September 11–19, 2024 650 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 43% 2% – 2% 2% 3%[y]
Suffolk University/USA Today[139] September 16–18, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 45% 1% 0% 0% 0% 6%[w]
Mitchell Research[90][A] September 11, 2024 580 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 46% 2% 0% 1% – 4%[w]
CNN/SSRS[140] August 23–29, 2024 708 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 43% 4% – 1% 1% 3%
Z to A Research (D)[141][X] August 23–26, 2024 518 (LV) – 47% 47% 3% – 1% 1% 1%
YouGov[100][M] August 15–23, 2024 500 (A) ± 5.0% 44% 42% 5% 1% 0% 1% 7%[z]
– (LV) ± 6.0% 47% 46% 4% 0% 0% 0% 3%
TIPP Insights[101][N] August 20–22, 2024 741 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 45% 5% 1% 1% – 2%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[103][P] August 13–17, 2024 1,093 (LV) – 47% 44% 4% 1% 1% – 3%
Focaldata[104] August 6–16, 2024 702 (LV) ± 3.7% 51% 44% 4% – 1% 0% –
702 (RV) 50% 44% 4% – 1% 0% 1%
702 (A) 50% 42% 5% – 1% 0% 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[142] August 12–15, 2024 530 (LV) – 44% 45% 5% – 1% 0% 5%
The Bullfinch Group[105][Q] August 8–11, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 46% 40% 7% 1% 1% – 5%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[106][I] August 7–11, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 45% 6% 1% 1% 0% 4%
New York Times/Siena College[108] August 5–8, 2024 619 (RV) ± 4.8% 44% 43% 5% 0% 1% 0% 6%
619 (LV) 48% 43% 4% 0% 1% 0% 3%
Navigator Research (D)[109] July 31 – August 8, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 44% 5% 1% 0% 0% 6%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[110] July 26 – August 8, 2024 406 (LV) – 46% 44% 6% 1% 0% – 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[143] July 31 – August 3, 2024 771 (LV) – 41% 42% 5% – 1% 0% 11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[112] July 24–28, 2024 706 (RV) ± 4.0% 51% 39% 5% – 1% 2% 2%
Fox News[114] July 22–24, 2024 1,012 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 45% 7% 1% 1% 0% 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[144] July 22–24, 2024 512 (LV) – 41% 44% 7% – 0% 0% 8%
Glengariff Group[145][W] July 22–24, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 41% 10% – 1% 1% 5%
Emerson College[115] July 22–23, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.4% 44% 44% 5% 1% 1% 0% 5%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Glengariff Group[146][W] August 26–28, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 45% 5% 1% 5%
EPIC-MRA[98] August 23–26, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 46% 3% 1% 5%
Public Policy Polling (D)[147][Y] July 17–18, 2024 650 (RV) ± 3.9% 41% 46% 5% 1% 7%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward (R)[102][O] August 19–21, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 43% 5% 8%
Civiqs[148][X] July 13–16, 2024 532 (RV) ± 5.3% 46% 46% 5% 3%
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[147][Y] July 17–18, 2024 650 (RV) ± 3.9% 46% 49% 5%
EPIC-MRA[149][V] July 13–17, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 49% 9%
Emerson College[150][Z] July 15–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 45% 13%
Marketing Resource Group[151] July 11–13, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 36% 39% 25%[aa]
Public Policy Polling (D)[116][T] July 11–12, 2024 568 (RV) – 46% 47% 7%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[152][AA] July 5–12, 2024 1,025 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 46% 8%
Echelon Insights[153][AB] July 1–8, 2024 607 (LV) ± 5.2% 45% 48% 7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[154] July 1–5, 2024 694 (RV) ± 4.0% 48% 43% 9%
Emerson College[155][Z] June 30 – July 2, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 45% 12%
Remington Research Group (R)[156] June 29 – July 1, 2024 584 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 45% 13%
EPIC-MRA[157][V] June 21–26, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 49% 6%
Emerson College[158] June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 46% 9%
49%[g] 51% –
Mitchell Research[159][A] June 3, 2024 697 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 48% 4%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[160] May 30–31, 2024 723 (RV) ± 3.6% 45% 45% 10%
636 (LV) 47% 46% 7%
Mitchell Research[161][A] May 20–21, 2024 697 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 49% 4%
KAConsulting (R)[162][AC] May 15–19, 2024 600 (RV) – 44% 45% 11%
Prime Group[163][AD] May 9–16, 2024 482 (RV) – 52% 48% –
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[117] May 7–13, 2024 704 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 45% 9%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[164] May 6–13, 2024 606 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 47% 8%
New York Times/Siena College[165] April 28 – May 9, 2024 616 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 49% 9%
616 (LV) 47% 46% 7%
Emerson College[166] April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 45% 11%
48%[g] 52% –
CBS News/YouGov[167] April 19–25, 2024 1,262 (LV) ± 3.1% 51% 49% –
Kaplan Strategies[168] April 20–21, 2024 804 (RV) ± 3.5% 36% 51% 13%
John Zogby Strategies[169][AE] April 13–21, 2024 640 (LV) – 48% 45% 7%
Fox News[170] April 11–16, 2024 1,126 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 49% 5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[171] April 8–15, 2024 708 (RV) ± 4.0% 47% 45% 8%
Marketing Resource Group[172] April 8–11, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 36% 42% 22%[aa]
The Bullfinch Group[173][Q] March 29 – April 3, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 39% 19%
Big Data Poll (R)[174] March 26–30, 2024 1,218 (RV) ± 2.6% 42% 44% 14%[ab]
1,218 (RV) 44%[g] 45% 11%[ac]
1,218 (RV) 41% 46% 13%
1,145 (LV) 43% 44% 13%[ab]
1,145 (LV) 45%[g] 46% 9%[ad]
1,145 (LV) 43% 46% 11%
1,145 (LV) 48.5%[g] 51.5% –
Spry Strategies (R)[175] March 25–28, 2024 709 (LV) ± 3.7% 44% 48% 8%
Wall Street Journal[176] March 17–24, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 48% 7%
Echelon Insights[177][AF] March 12–19, 2024 400 (LV) ± 5.3% 45% 51% 4%
Emerson College[178] March 14–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 45% 11%
50%[g] 50% –
CNN/SSRS[179] March 13–18, 2024 1,097 (RV) ± 3.6% 42% 50% 8%
Mitchell Research[180][A] March 15–16, 2024 627 (LV) ± 3.9% 44% 47% 9%
Quinnipiac University[181] March 8–12, 2024 1,487 (RV) ± 2.5% 45% 48% 7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[182] March 8–12, 2024 698 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 45% 10%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[183][AG] February 22–25, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 43% 13%
Kaplan Strategies[184] February 22−23, 2024 1,019 (RV) ± 3.1% 36% 46% 18%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[185] February 12–20, 2024 702 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 46% 10%
Emerson College[186] February 20–24, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 46% 10%
EPIC-MRA[187] February 13–18, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 45% 14%
Fox News[188] February 8–12, 2024 1,106 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 47% 8%
Focaldata[189] January 17–23, 2024 863 (A) – 41% 43% 16%[ae]
– (LV) 45% 44% 11%[af]
– (LV) 51%[g] 49% –
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[190] January 16–21, 2024 703 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 47% 7%
Target Insyght[191] January 4–10, 2024 800 (RV) – 45% 41% 14%
Glengariff Group[192][W] January 2–6, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 47% 14%
John Zogby Strategies[193] January 2–4, 2024 602 (LV) – 44% 47% 9%
CNN/SSRS[194] November 29 – December 6, 2023 1,197 (RV) ± 3.4% 40% 50% 10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[195] November 27 – December 6, 2023 703 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 46% 12%
Big Data Poll (R)[196] November 16–19, 2023 1,273 (RV) ± 2.7% 36% 41% 23%[ag]
1,200 (LV) 37% 42% 21%[ah]
EPIC-MRA[197] November 10–16, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 46% 13%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[198] October 30 – November 7, 2023 700 (RV) ± 4.0% 43% 43% 14%
Emerson College[199] October 30 – November 4, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 41% 16%
New York Times/Siena College[118] October 22 – November 3, 2023 616 (RV) ± 4.4% 43% 48% 9%
616 (LV) 46% 46% 8%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[200] October 5–10, 2023 706 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 44% 12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[201] October 7–9, 2023 820 (LV) – 41% 41% 17%
Marketing Resource Group[202] October 2–8, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 35% 42% 22%
Emerson College[203] October 1–4, 2023 468 (RV) ± 4.5% 44% 43% 8%
Public Policy Polling (D)[204][AH] September 26–27, 2023 679 (RV) ± 3.8% 48% 44% 8%
Susquehanna Polling & Research[205] September 7–12, 2023 700 (RV) ± 3.7% 46% 43% 11%
EPIC-MRA[206] August 6–11, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 45% 9%
Emerson College[207] August 1–2, 2023 1,121 (LV) ± 2.9% 44% 44% 13%
Mitchell Research[208][A] July 11–13, 2023 639 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 43% 13%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[209][AI] Jul 8–10, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.38% 45% 44% 9%
Prime Group[210][AD] June 14–28, 2023 500 (RV) – 50% 50% –
40% 43% 17%[ai]
EPIC-MRA[211] June 8–14, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 44% 12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[212][AI] April 17–19, 2023 500 (V) ± 3.6% 45% 42% 12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[213][AJ] December 6–7, 2022 763 (V) ± 3.6% 50% 43% 7%
EPIC-MRA[214] November 30 – December 6, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 43% 10%
Emerson College[215] October 28–31, 2022 900 (LV) ± 3.2% 44% 47% 9%
Emerson College[216] October 12–14, 2022 580 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 44% 12%
EPIC-MRA[217][V] September 15–19, 2022 600 (LV) – 48% 44% 8%
Blueprint Polling (D)[218] August 15–16, 2022 611 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 41% 19%
Blueprint Polling (D)[219] February 1–4, 2022 632 (LV) ± 3.9% 38% 40% 22%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[220][H] November 11–16, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 53% 6%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Trafalgar Group (R)[221] July 15–17, 2024 1,091 (LV) ± 2.9% 43% 45% 4% 1% 1% 6%
EPIC-MRA[149] July 13–17, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 36% 43% 8% 2% 2% 9%
Emerson College[150][Z] July 15–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 43% 7% 1% 1% 8%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[152][AA] July 5–12, 2024 1,025 (LV) ± 3.0% 43% 44% 7% 0% 1% 5%[aj]
YouGov[222][C] July 4–12, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.6% 40% 42% 4% 1% 1% 12%
Echelon Insights[153][AB] July 1–8, 2024 607 (LV) ± 5.2% 40% 43% 8% 2% 2% 5%[ak]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[154] July 1–5, 2024 694 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 39% 6% 2% 1% 7%[aj]
EPIC-MRA[157] June 21–26, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 42% 10% 2% 2% 6%
Emerson College[158] June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 44% 5% 1% 1% 7%
Mitchell Research[159][A] June 3, 2024 697 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 46% 3% 1% 1% 4%
Mitchell Research[161][A] May 20–21, 2024 697 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 46% 5% 1% 1% 2%
KAConsulting (R)[162][AC] May 15–19, 2024 600 (RV) – 41% 42% 7% 2% 1% 7%[al]
Prime Group[163][AD] May 9–16, 2024 482 (RV) – 44% 42% 10% 2% 2% –
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[117] May 7–13, 2024 704 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 40% 7% 1% 2% 8%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[164] May 6–13, 2024 606 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 43% 7% 2% 2% 6%
New York Times/Siena College[165] April 28 – May 9, 2024 616 (RV) ± 4.0% 36% 38% 9% 0% 1% 16%[al]
616 (LV) 42% 39% 7% 0% 1% 11%[al]
Emerson College[166] April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 43% 5% 1% 1% 8%
Fox News[170] April 11–16, 2024 1,126 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 42% 9% 2% 2% 5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[171] April 8–15, 2024 708 (RV) ± 4.0% 43% 40% 7% 1% 1% 8%
Marketing Resource Group[172] April 8–11, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 34% 37% 13% 2% 1% 13%
Wall Street Journal[176] March 17–24, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 37% 39% 12% 2% 2% 8%
Emerson College[178] March 14–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 43% 5% 1% 1% 10%
Mitchell Research[180][A] March 15–16, 2024 627 (LV) ± 3.9% 42% 44% 6% 1% 1% 6%
Quinnipiac University[181] March 8–12, 2024 1,487 (RV) ± 2.5% 36% 41% 10% 3% 4% 6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[182] March 8–12, 2024 698 (RV) ± 4.0% 40% 40% 9% 3% 2% 6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[185] February 12–20, 2024 702 (RV) ± 4.0% 40% 41% 9% 1% 1% 8%
Emerson College[186] February 20–24, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 39% 42% 6% 1% 1% 11%
Fox News[188] February 8–12, 2024 1,106 (RV) ± 3.0% 37% 42% 11% 2% 3% 5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[223] January 16–21, 2024 703 (RV) ± 4.0% 37% 43% 8% 1% 1% 10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[224] November 27 – December 6, 2023 703 (RV) ± 4.0% 35% 39% 10% 2% 1% 13%
Big Data Poll (R)[196] November 16–19, 2023 1,273 (RV) ± 2.7% 36% 39% 9% 1% 1% 14%[am]
1,200 (LV) 37% 41% 9% 1% 1% 11%[an]

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Civiqs[148][X] July 13–16, 2024 532 (RV) ± 5.3% 43% 46% 5% 6%
1983 Labs[225] June 28–30, 2024 563 (LV) ± 4.1% 41% 45% 5% 9%[aj]
P2 Insights[226][AK] June 11–20, 2024 650 (LV) ± 3.8% 40% 43% 8% 9%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[160] May 30–31, 2024 723 (RV) ± 3.6% 41% 39% 11% 9%
636 (LV) 44% 43% 8% 5%
P2 Insights[227][AK] May 13−21, 2024 650 (LV) ± 3.8% 37% 45% 7% 11%
Big Data Poll (R)[174] March 26–30, 2024 1,218 (RV) ± 2.6% 40% 44% 7% 9%[ao]
1,218 (RV) 41%[g] 45% 8% 6%[ap]
1,145 (LV) 41% 44% 7% 13%[aq]
1,145 (LV) 42%[g] 45% 8% 5%[ar]
Spry Strategies (R)[175] March 25–28, 2024 709 (LV) ± 3.7% 40% 43% 9% 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[228] March 14–17, 2024 616 (LV) – 39% 41% 6% 14%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[229] December 28–30, 2023 832 (LV) – 37% 39% 9% 15%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[230] November 27–29, 2023 874 (LV) – 38% 39% 9% 13%
Big Data Poll (R)[196] November 16–19, 2023 1,273 (RV) ± 2.7% 35% 40% 9% 16%[as]
1,200 (LV) 36% 41% 8% 11%[at]
New York Times/Siena College[231] October 22 – November 3, 2023 616 (RV) ± 4.4% 31% 34% 26% 9%
616 (LV) 34% 34% 25% 7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[201] October 7–9, 2023 820 (LV) – 38% 40% 7% 15%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[147][Y] July 17–18, 2024 650 (RV) ± 3.9% 44% 45% 5% 3% 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[232] July 16–18, 2024 437 (LV) – 41% 42% 6% 1% 10%[aj]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[233] July 8–10, 2024 465 (LV) – 43% 42% 6% 0% 9%[aj]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[234] June 8–11, 2024 719 (LV) – 36% 37% 8% 1% 18%[aj]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[235] May 2–4, 2024 650 (LV) – 37% 43% 7% 1% 12%
CBS News/YouGov[167] April 19–25, 2024 1,262 (LV) ± 3.1% 45% 43% 9% 3% 0%
Big Data Poll (R)[174] March 26–30, 2024 1,218 (RV) ± 2.6% 40% 43% 10% 1% 6%
1,218 (RV) 42%[g] 44% 11% 3% –
1,145 (LV) 41% 44% 9% 1% 5%
1,145 (LV) 43%[g] 44% 11% 2% –

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
CNN/SSRS[179] March 13–18, 2024 1,097 (RV) ± 3.6% 34% 40% 18% 4% 4%
CNN/SSRS[194] November 29 – December 6, 2023 1,197 (RV) ± 3.4% 31% 39% 20% 6% 4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[236] October 30 – November 7, 2023 700 (RV) ± 4.0% 38% 37% 10% 2% 13%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Cornel
West
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[207] August 1–2, 2023 1,121 (LV) ± 2.9% 41% 43% 4% 11%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[169][AE] April 13–21, 2024 640 (LV) – 45% 44% 11%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[169][AE] April 13–21, 2024 640 (LV) – 42% 41% 17%

Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Gavin
Newsom
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[116][T] July 11–12, 2024 568 (RV) – 44% 45% 11%
Glengariff Group[192][W] January 2–6, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 45% 15%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Gretchen
Whitmer
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Fox News[114] July 22–24, 2024 1,012 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 46% 2%
Glengariff Group[145][W] July 22–24, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 40% 17%
Public Policy Polling (D)[116][T] July 11–12, 2024 568 (RV) – 52% 45% 3%
Emerson College/The Hill[178] Mar 14–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 45% 5%
Glengariff Group[192][W] January 2–6, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 45% 6%
Marketing Resource Group[202] October 2–8, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 40% 13%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Gretchen
Whitmer
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[147][Y] July 17–18, 2024 650 (RV) ± 3.9% 46% 45% 5% 1% 3%

JB Pritzker vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		JB
Pritzker
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[116][T] July 11–12, 2024 568 (RV) – 39% 45% 16%

Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Shapiro
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Fox News[114] July 22–24, 2024 1,012 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 48% 5%
Public Policy Polling (D)[116][T] July 11–12, 2024 568 (RV) – 43% 46% 11%

Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Pete
Buttigieg
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[116][T] July 11–12, 2024 568 (RV) – 43% 48% 9%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Fox News[188] February 8–12, 2024 1,106 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 43% 15%
Glengariff Group[192][W] January 2–6, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 34% 44% 22%
CNN/SSRS[194] November 29 – December 6, 2023 1,197 (RV) ± 3.4% 38% 50% 12%
EPIC-MRA[197] November 10–16, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 36% 47% 17%
New York Times/Siena College[231] October 22 – November 3, 2023 616 (RV) ± 4.4% 35% 45% 20%
616 (LV) 36% 46% 18%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Fox News[188] February 8–12, 2024 1,106 (RV) ± 3.0% 35% 26% 23% 3% 3% 33%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[230] November 27–29, 2023 874 (LV) – 37% 25% 18% 20%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
CNN/SSRS[194] November 29 – December 6, 2023 1,197 (RV) ± 3.4% 42% 49% 9%
New York Times/Siena College[231] October 22 – November 3, 2023 616 (RV) ± 4.4% 42% 42% 16%
616 (LV) 44% 43% 13%
Susquehanna Polling & Research[205] September 7–12, 2023 700 (RV) ± 3.7% 48% 42% 10%
Mitchell Research[208][A] July 11–13, 2023 639 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 31% 25%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[209][AI] July 8–10, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.38% 44% 46% 7%
EPIC-MRA[211] June 8–14, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 45% 11%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[212][AI] April 17–19, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 45% 12%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[230] November 27–29, 2023 874 (LV) – 39% 30% 13% 2% 15%


Results

[edit]

Trump secured Michigan with 49.7% of the vote, winning 74 counties out of 83, including the state's third-most populous Macomb County. Conversely, Harris won 7 out of Michigan's 10 most-populous counties, including Wayne County which ranks the first in the state.[239][240]

Despite her victory in Wayne County, Harris suffered a major setback there, with a 9.2% swing towards Trump. Though not as severe, she ceded ground across the state as a whole, earning a smaller percentage of the vote than Biden did in 2020 in all but seven counties, mostly concentrated in north-western areas of the Lower Peninsula. In addition to Wayne County, Trump also achieved significant swings in his favor in Cass, Genesee, and Lake counties, all of which have somewhat notable Black populations, as well as in Isabella and Macomb counties.[238]

Trump's best result came from rural inland Missaukee County, while Harris recorded her strongest performance in Washtenaw County, home to the University of Michigan.[241] Green Party candidate Stein did the best in Wayne County with 2.4% of the vote, likely owing to communities such as Dearborn and Hamtramck.[242]

2024 United States presidential election in Michigan[243][244][245]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican
2,818,429 49.7% +1.89
Democratic
2,736,843 48.3% −2.31
Green
44,603 0.79% +0.54
Natural Law
26,785 0.47% +0.42
Libertarian
22,437 0.40% −0.69
Constitution
6,509 0.11% 0.00
Independent
6,664 0.12% N/A
Independent
2,330 0.04% N/A
Write-in 1,457 0.03% N/A
Total votes 5,663,801 100.0%
Republican gain from Democratic


By county

[edit]

Only counties that have officially certified and posted their results are shown so far.

County Donald Trump
Republican 		Kamala Harris
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Alcona 5,255 69.81% 2,140 28.43% 133 1.77% 3,115 41.38% 7,528
Alger 3,116 59.17% 2,075 39.40% 75 1.42% 1,041 19.77% 5,266
Allegan 45,206 62.77% 25,637 35.60% 1,181 1.64% 19,569 27.17% 72,024
Alpena 10,967 63.61% 6,038 35.02% 236 1.37% 4,929 28.59% 17,241
Antrim 10,341 61.25% 6,330 37.49% 212 1.26% 4,011 23.76% 16,883
Arenac 6,379 69.65% 2,662 29.07% 117 1.28% 3,717 40.58% 9,158
Baraga 2,779 64.15% 1,488 34.35% 65 1.50% 1,291 29.80% 4,332
Barry 25,650 66.41% 12,391 32.08% 584 1.51% 13,259 34.33% 38,625
Bay 34,792 56.72% 25,767 42.01% 779 1.27% 9,025 14.71% 61,338
Benzie 6,895 53.67% 5,780 44.99% 171 1.33% 1,115 8.68% 12,846
Berrien 44,975 53.12% 38,323 45.26% 1,370 1.62% 6,652 7.86% 84,668
Branch 14,848 70.41% 5,911 28.03% 330 1.56% 8,937 42.38% 21,089
Calhoun 38,606 56.36% 28,988 42.32% 911 1.33% 9,618 14.04% 68,505
Cass % % % %
Charlevoix 10,183 57.66% 7,197 40.75% 281 1.59% 2,986 16.91% 17,661
Cheboygan 10,653 64.87% 5,543 33.75% 227 1.38% 5,110 31.12% 16,423
Chippewa 11,249 61.25% 6,796 37.01% 320 1.74% 4,453 24.24% 18,365
Clare 11,766 67.98% 5,276 30.48% 265 1.53% 6,490 37.50% 17,307
Clinton 26,751 53.52% 22,450 44.91% 785 1.57% 4,301 8.61% 49,986
Crawford 5,613 66.22% 2,752 32.47% 111 1.31% 2,861 33.75% 8,476
Delta 14,109 64.43% 7,462 34.08% 326 1.49% 6,647 30.35% 21,897
Dickinson 10,324 67.42% 4,763 31.11% 225 1.47% 5,561 36.31% 15,312
Eaton 33,102 50.76% 31,056 47.63% 1,050 1.61% 2,046 3.13% 65,208
Emmet 12,465 54.43% 10,005 43.69% 431 1.88% 2,460 10.74% 22,901
Genesee 105,303 47.16% 114,670 51.36% 3,295 1.48% -9,367 -4.20% 223,268
Gladwin 10,809 69.79% 4,501 29.06% 178 1.15% 6,308 40.73% 15,488
Gogebic 4,803 57.36% 3,385 40.42% 186 2.22% 1,418 16.94% 8,374
Grand Traverse 31,423 49.97% 30,339 48.24% 1,125 1.79% 1,084 1.73% 62,887
Gratiot 12,894 64.91% 6,682 33.64% 288 1.45% 6,212 31.27% 19,864
Hillsdale 18,631 75.04% 5,875 23.66% 322 1.30% 12,756 51.38% 24,828
Houghton 11,181 57.71% 7,881 40.68% 312 1.61% 3,300 17.03% 19,374
Huron 13,224 69.71% 5,522 29.11% 223 1.18% 7,702 40.60% 18,969
Ingham 50,564 34.16% 94,542 63.87% 2,906 1.96% -43,978 -29.71% 148,012
Ionia % % % %
Iosco 10,155 64.46% 5,344 33.92% 255 1.62% 4,811 30.54% 15,754
Iron 4,501 64.05% 2,441 34.74% 85 1.21% 2,060 29.31% 7,027
Isabella % % % %
Jackson 50,199 59.88% 32,348 38.59% 1,280 1.53% 17,851 21.29% 83,827
Kalamazoo 58,671 40.15% 84,501 57.83% 2,947 2.02% -25,830 -17.68% 146,119
Kalkaska 8,149 70.68% 3,206 27.81% 174 1.51% 4,943 42.87% 11,529
Kent 172,720 46.31% 192,668 51.66% 7,542 2.02% -19,948 -5.35% 372,930
Keweenaw 896 55.62% 690 42.83% 25 1.55% 206 12.79% 1,611
Lake % % % %
Lapeer 38,398 69.26% 16,338 29.47% 703 1.27% 22,060 39.79% 55,439
Leelanau 8,035 45.43% 9,406 53.19% 244 1.38% -1,371 -7.76% 17,685
Lenawee 33,463 60.83% 20,787 37.79% 762 1.39% 12,676 23.04% 55,012
Livingston 81,217 61.32% 49,503 37.38% 1,728 1.30% 31,714 23.94% 132,448
Luce 2,170 72.70% 769 25.76% 46 1.54% 1,401 46.94% 2,985
Mackinac 4,476 61.37% 2,674 36.66% 144 1.97% 1,802 24.71% 7,294
Macomb 284,660 55.91% 214,977 42.22% 9,515 1.87% 69,683 13.69% 509,152
Manistee 8,748 57.19% 6,309 41.25% 239 1.56% 2,439 15.94% 15,296
Marquette 17,459 44.76% 20,866 53.49% 684 1.75% -3,407 -8.73% 39,009
Mason 10,830 59.86% 6,973 38.54% 288 1.59% 3,857 21.32% 18,091
Mecosta 14,445 64.23% 7,688 34.19% 356 1.58% 6,757 30.04% 22,489
Menominee 8,647 66.21% 4,256 32.59% 157 1.20% 4,391 33.62% 13,060
Midland % % % %
Missaukee 7,066 77.21% 1,945 21.25% 141 1.54% 5,121 55.96% 9,152
Monroe 57,402 62.74% 32,613 35.64% 1,479 1.62% 24,789 27.10% 91,494
Montcalm 23,946 68.72% 10,368 29.75% 531 1.52% 13,578 38.97% 34,845
Montmorency 4,599 71.49% 1,702 26.46% 132 2.05% 2,897 45.03% 6,433
Muskegon 47,733 50.15% 46,028 48.36% 1,419 1.49% 1,705 1.79% 95,180
Newaygo 20,630 70.55% 8,131 27.81% 481 1.64% 12,499 42.74% 29,242
Oakland 337,791 43.65% 419,519 54.21% 16,603 2.15% -81,728 -10.56% 773,913
Oceana 9,547 64.20% 5,085 34.20% 238 1.60% 4,462 30.00% 14,870
Ogemaw % % % %
Ontonagon 2,479 64.54% 1,313 34.18% 49 1.28% 1,166 30.36% 3,841
Osceola 9,639 73.01% 3,326 25.19% 237 1.80% 6,313 47.82% 13,202
Oscoda 3,716 71.57% 1,414 27.23% 62 1.19% 2,302 44.34% 5,192
Otsego 10,693 66.95% 5,052 31.63% 226 1.42% 5,641 35.32% 15,971
Ottawa 106,133 59.46% 69,653 39.02% 2,721 1.52% 36,480 20.44% 178,507
Presque Isle % % % %
Roscommon % % % %
Saginaw 52,912 50.87% 49,515 47.61% 1,581 1.52% 3,397 3.26% 104,008
St. Clair 64,277 66.50% 30,844 31.91% 1,542 1.60% 33,433 34.59% 96,663
St. Joseph 19,403 66.11% 9,452 32.20% 495 1.69% 9,951 33.91% 29,350
Sanilac 17,080 73.18% 5,957 25.52% 302 1.29% 11,123 47.66% 23,339
Schoolcraft 3,196 65.25% 1,631 33.30% 71 1.45% 1,565 31.95% 4,898
Shiawassee 24,718 60.65% 15,335 37.63% 699 1.72% 9,383 23.02% 40,752
Tuscola 21,764 70.85% 8,562 27.87% 391 1.27% 13,202 42.98% 30,717
Van Buren 23,407 56.75% 17,175 41.64% 667 1.62% 6,232 15.11% 41,249
Washtenaw 58,844 26.56% 157,152 70.94% 5,546 2.50% -98,308 -44.38% 221,542
Wayne 288,860 33.61% 537,032 62.49% 33,434 3.89% -248,172 -28.88% 859,326
Wexford % % % %
Totals 2,816,586 49.73% 2,736,430 48.31% 110,785 1.96% 80,156 1.42% 5,663,801
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Candidate has suspended campaign, but remains on the ballot.
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ a b "Other" with 2%
  5. ^ a b c "Other" with 4%
  6. ^ a b c d e f "Someone else" with 1%
  7. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  8. ^ "Another Candidate" with 3%
  9. ^ "Another Candidate" with 2%
  10. ^ a b c d Another Party's Candidate with 1%
  11. ^ "Other" with 3%
  12. ^ "A third party / Independent candidate" with 3%
  13. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  14. ^ a b c "Other" with 1%
  15. ^ a b "Some other candidate" with 1%
  16. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  17. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  18. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  19. ^ "Will not vote" with 4%
  20. ^ a b c Randall Terry (C) with 0%
  21. ^ Kennedy suspended his campaign, but he remains on the ballot in Michigan.
  22. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  23. ^ a b c d e Joseph Kishore (SEP) & Randall Terry (C) with 0% each
  24. ^ "Other" with 2%; "Refused" with 1%
  25. ^ Randall Terry (C), Joseph Kishore (SEP), & Shiva Ayyadurai (I) with 0% each
  26. ^ "Will not vote" with 4%
  27. ^ a b "Someone else" with 14%
  28. ^ a b "Someone else" with 8%
  29. ^ "Someone else" with 11%
  30. ^ "Someone else" with 9%
  31. ^ "Another candidate" with 9%
  32. ^ "Another candidate" with 7%
  33. ^ "Another third party candidate" with 12%; "Would not vote" with 4%
  34. ^ "Another third party candidate" with 12%; "Would not vote" with 2%
  35. ^ No Labels candidate
  36. ^ a b c d e f Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
  37. ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
  38. ^ a b c Lars Mapstead (L) with 1%
  39. ^ "Would not vote" with 3%
  40. ^ "Would not vote" with 1%
  41. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  42. ^ "Someone else" with 6%
  43. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  44. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
  45. ^ "Another third party candidate" with 7%; "Would not vote" with 2%
  46. ^ "Another third party candidate" with 6%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  47. ^ Kishore and White are affiliated with the Socialist Equality Party on a national level, which does not have ballot access in Michigan.

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q Poll commissioned by MIRS
  2. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by American Thinker
  3. ^ a b c d Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by TrendingPolitics
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
  6. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  7. ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
  8. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
  9. ^ a b c d Poll commissioned by AARP
  10. ^ Poll conducted for the Article III Project
  11. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation
  12. ^ Poll sponsored by Focus on Rural America
  13. ^ a b Poll conducted for the Cato Institute
  14. ^ a b Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  15. ^ a b Poll conducted for the Pinpoint Policy Institute
  16. ^ a b Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
  17. ^ a b c Poll conducted for The Independent Center
  18. ^ Poll conducted for Competitiveness Coalition
  19. ^ Poll sponsored by Red Eagle Politics
  20. ^ a b c d e f g Poll conducted for Progress Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates
  21. ^ Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republican candidates
  22. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by The Detroit Free Press
  23. ^ a b c d e f g h i Poll commissioned by The Detroit News & WDIV-TV
  24. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Rust Belt Rising, which supports Democratic candidates
  25. ^ a b c d Poll conducted for Clean and Prosperous America PAC
  26. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
  27. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute
  28. ^ a b Poll sponsored by NetChoice
  29. ^ a b Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
  30. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
  31. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  32. ^ Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
  33. ^ Poll sponsored by League of American Workers
  34. ^ Poll commissioned by Save My Country Action Fund
  35. ^ a b c d Poll commissioned by Citizens Awareness Project
  36. ^ Poll sponsored by Progress Michigan, a sponsor for the Democratic Party
  37. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Building America's Future, which supports Republican candidates

References

[edit]
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  29. ^ Canseco, Mario (November 4, 2024). "Battleground States Remain Closely Contested in U.S. Race". Research Co.
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  34. ^ "November 2024 Final Swing State Polls: Too-Close-To-Call Election for President". Emerson College Polling. November 4, 2024.
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