Categories
2024 United States presidential election in Nebraska
From Wikipedia - Reading time: 17 min
 | |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
.jpg)
.jpg)
| Elections in Nebraska |
|---|
 |
 Government |
The 2024 United States presidential election in Nebraska is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia will participate. Nebraska voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. Nebraska has five electoral votes.
A sparsely populated Great Plains state, Nebraska has voted Republican in nearly every presidential election since its statehood, making exceptions only for favorite son William Jennings Bryan; Woodrow Wilson; Franklin D. Roosevelt in his first two terms; and landslide winner Lyndon B. Johnson. Democratic presidential candidates have not been able to come within single digits of carrying the state since Johnson carried the state in his 1964 landslide, and the only Democrat to win more than 40% of the statewide vote since then was Barack Obama, who garnered 41.60% in 2008.
However, the state's slightly blue 2nd congressional district, which contains Omaha and some of its suburbs, has been competitive since 2008, when Obama narrowly won the district by 1.22% in the first election where Nebraska — one of two states that can split their electoral votes, the other being Maine — gave a Democrat any of its electoral votes in 44 years. This leftward shift is primarily owed to recent population growth experienced by the Omaha metropolitan area. In 2020, the district flipped back to the Democratic column when Joe Biden won it by 6.5%. Nebraska at-large is expected to be solidly won by the Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump, while the second district is considered to be slightly favoring the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris.[1] If Harris were to win the district, it would mark the first time a Democrat had carried it in two consecutive elections since Nebraska started using the congressional district method. Tim Walz, the running mate of Kamala Harris and governor of Minnesota, was born and raised in Nebraska.[2]
The first district is considered to strongly favor Republicans, with Trump having carried it by 15-points in 2020. The third district is even more heavily Republican, having been carried by Trump by 53-points in 2020.
In April 2024, there was a failed push from some Republicans to replace the split electoral college voting with a winner-takes-all system. A second attempt failed in September. The change to winner-take-all had been supported by Trump, Governor Jim Pillen, 2nd district congressman Don Bacon,[3] and Charlie Kirk from Turning Point USA.[4][5][6]
General election
[edit]Candidates
[edit]The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Nebraska:[7]
- Kamala Harris, Democratic Party
- Donald Trump, Republican Party
- Chase Oliver, Libertarian Party
- Jill Stein, Green Party
- Cornel West, Independent
In addition, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. successfully made it on the ballot, but took his name off of it when he withdrew.
Proposal to change to winner-take-all
[edit]In April 2024, there was a failed push from some Republicans to replace the split Electoral College voting with a winner-takes-all system. The change was prompted by a possible scenario where if Joe Biden carried the blue wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, but no other swing states, the second district could give him the decisive 270th electoral vote.[8] While Republicans control the state legislature, the attempt failed due to internal opposition. Only eight legislators voted to advance the proposal when it was brought forward at the end of the legislative session. Republican Senator Mike McDonnell, who had given the caucus a filibuster-proof majority when he switched his affiliation from Democratic, stated, "I am not voting for closure on winner-take-all, and I am not supporting winner-take-all."[9]
Governor Jim Pillen said he would call a special session to adopt a winner-take-all system if it were to get the necessary support for passage. As bills in Nebraska normally take effect three months after being signed, it would need to be passed with an emergency clause and the support of two-thirds of 50 senators – meaning all 33 Republicans – in order to be effective for the election. Maureen Terry, a Democratic leader in Maine, responded to the efforts by signaling that if they were successful, the Maine legislature would also adopt a winner-take-all system to negate any benefit given to Republicans.[10]
After Kamala Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate, a second push to change to a winner-take-all system began in September after Republican nominee Donald Trump and several of his allies spoke to Republican legislators and Pillen about instituting the change. Pillen stated he would call a special session for the change if supporters could give him commitments from the 33 legislators needed to overcome a Democratic filibuster; at the time, three of the 33 Republicans in the legislature, including McDonnell, who was expected to be the last holdout, had not committed to supporting the change.[11][12] Due to restrictions in Maine law, Maine would not have been able to counter such a change in time for the November election, meaning the change would almost certainly have secured an extra Republican electoral vote.[13] McDonnell stated on September 23 that he would not vote to change the system before the election, preferring that the issue be decided by the state's voters.[14] The following day, Pillen stated he would not call a special session.[15]
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking (1st) | Ranking (2nd) | Ranking (3rd) | Ranking (statewide) | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[16] | Solid R | Lean D | Solid R | Solid R | August 27, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] | Solid R | Likely D | Solid R | Safe R | September 25, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[18] | Solid R | Likely D | Solid R | Safe R | August 26, 2024 |
| CNalysis[19] | Solid R | Likely D | Solid R | Solid R | August 27, 2024 |
| CNN[20] | Solid R | Tossup | Solid R | Solid R | August 27, 2024 |
| The Economist[21] | Safe R | Likely D | Solid R | Safe R | October 3, 2024 |
| 538[22] | Solid R | Likely D | Solid R | Solid R | September 13, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[23] | Solid R | Lean D | Solid R | Solid R | August 29, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Statewide
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group[24][A] | September 27 – October 1, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 53% | 42% | 5% |
| 48% | 38% | 14%[b] | ||||
| SurveyUSA[25][B] | September 20–23, 2024 | 558 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 56% | 40% | 5%[c] |
| Global Strategy Group (D)[26][C] | August 26–29, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 54% | 37% | 9% |
| SurveyUSA[27][D] | August 23–27, 2024 | 1,293 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 54% | 37% | 9%[d] |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torchlight Strategies (R)[28][E] | July 8–11, 2024 | 698 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 33% | 15%[e] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[29] | April 24–25, 2024 | 737 (V) | ± 3.6% | 57% | 34% | 9% |
| John Zogby Strategies[30][F] | April 13–21, 2024 | 307 (LV) | – | 50% | 39% | 11% |
| Change Research (D)[31][G] | November 13–16, 2023 | 1,048 (LV) | – | 53% | 35% | 12% |
| Emerson College[32] | October 1–4, 2023 | 423 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 47% | 31% | 23% |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[30][F] | April 13–21, 2024 | 307 (LV) | – | 47% | 39% | 14% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[30][F] | April 13–21, 2024 | 307 (LV) | – | 50% | 38% | 12% |
Nebraska's 2nd congressional district
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College[33] | September 24–26, 2024 | 680 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| 680 (LV) | 52% | 43% | 5% | |||
| SurveyUSA[27][D] | August 23–27, 2024 | 507 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 47% | 42% | 11%[f] |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College[33] | September 24–26, 2024 | 680 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 41% | – | 2% | 2% | 6% |
| 680 (LV) | 51% | 42% | – | 2% | 1% | 4% | |||
| CNN/SSRS[34] | September 20–25, 2024 | 794 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 53% | 42% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Chase Oliver vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research Group (R)[35][H] | August 14–17, 2024 | 656 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 50% | 42% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 4% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)[36][I] | August 10–17, 2024 | 437 (LV) | – | 47% | 42% | 5% | 6% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torchlight Strategies (R)[28][E] | July 8–11, 2024 | 300 (LV) | – | 42% | 42% | 16%[g] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[29] | April 24–25, 2024 | – | – | 43% | 46% | 11% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[29] | April 24–25, 2024 | – | – | 34% | 37% | 9% | 4% | 4% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Light Intelligence[37][J] | May 17–22, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 42% | 37% | 13% | 8% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | |||||
| Democratic | |||||
| Libertarian | |||||
| Green | |||||
| Legal Marijuana Now | |||||
| Write-in | |||||
| Total votes | |||||
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The Nebraska Democratic primary was held on May 14, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 84,677 | 90.2% | 28 | 28 | |
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 9,199 | 9.8% | 1 | ||
| Total: | 93,876 | 100.0% | 29 | 5 | 34 |
Republican primary
[edit]The Nebraska Republican primary was held on May 14, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 167,968 | 79.3% | 36 | ||
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 38,246 | 18.1% | |||
| Perry Johnson (withdrawn) | 3,902 | 1.8% | |||
| Write-in votes[41] | 1,671 | 0.8% | |||
| Total: | 211,787 | 100.0% | 36 | 36 | |
Libertarian primary
[edit]
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- >90%
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 60–70%
- >90%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 30–40%
- 50–60%
- >90%
- 40–50%
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
The Nebraska Libertarian primary was held on May 14, 2024. Six candidates were on the ballot.[42]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Chase Oliver | 309 | 27.6% |
| Charles Ballay | 237 | 21.2% |
| Jacob Hornberger | 204 | 18.2% |
| Lars Mapstead | 180 | 16.1% |
| Michael Rectenwald | 120 | 10.7% |
| Mike ter Maat | 69 | 6.2% |
| Total: | 1,119 | 100.0% |
| Source:[43] | ||
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Nebraska
- 2024 Nebraska elections
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "A third party / Independent candidate" with 7%
- ^ "Other" with 3%; "Undecided" with 2%
- ^ "Other" with 4%
- ^ "Someone else" with 11%
- ^ "Other" with 5%
- ^ "Someone else" with 12%
- ^ Listed on the ballot without party affiliation.
- ^ Replacement for Butch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.
Partisan clients
- ^ Poll conducted for The Independent Center
- ^ Poll sponsored by the campaign of Dan Osborn, an independent candidate for Nebraska's Class 3 Senate seat
- ^ Poll sponsored by Retire Career Politicians PAC
- ^ a b Poll commissioned by Split Ticket
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by the campaign of U.S. Senator Deb Fischer, who has endorsed Trump
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
- ^ Poll sponsored by Nebraska Railroaders for Public Safety
- ^ Poll sponsored by Nebraska Examiner
- ^ Poll sponsored by Future Majority
- ^ Poll commissioned by League of American Workers
References
[edit]- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 11, 2024.
- ^ Searcey, Dionne (August 6, 2024). "Walz Grew Up in Rural Nebraska, Where Finding a Date 'Was Kind of a Problem'". The New York Times.
- ^ Montellardo, Zach (April 10, 2024). "Nebraska Republicans float special session to revive Trump-backed election rule change". Politico. Retrieved May 2, 2024.
- ^ Pengelly, Martin (April 3, 2024). "Far-right podcaster prompts Nebraska move to change electoral system". The Guardian.
- ^ Kerr, Nicholas (April 3, 2024). "Lawmakers skeptical of enacting Trump-backed bill in Nebraska that could give him edge over Biden". ABC News.
- ^ Kamisar, Ben; Bowman, Bridget; Smith, Allan (April 3, 2024). "Trump and GOP leaders push to change Nebraska electoral votes to winner-take-all". NBC News.
- ^ "The Green Papers: 2024 Presidential Candidate Ballot Access by State". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
- ^ Zeleny, Jeff (September 21, 2024). "Trump presses to change Nebraska election law, in fight for a sole electoral vote | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved September 22, 2024.
- ^ "State Sen. Mike McDonnell now a Republican: Does he support 'winner-take-all'?". KMTV 3 News Now Omaha. April 4, 2024. Retrieved September 21, 2024.
- ^ Marley, Patrick; Dawsey, Josh; Scherer, Michael (September 20, 2024). "Trump ramps up push for Nebraska to change electoral vote allocation". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved September 21, 2024.
- ^ Sanderford, Aaron (September 20, 2024). "Sen. Mike McDonnell says he's a no on winner-take-all 'as of today' • Nebraska Examiner". Nebraska Examiner. Retrieved September 21, 2024.
- ^ "How One Man's Vote in Nebraska Could Change the Presidential Election". The New York Times. September 20, 2024.
- ^ https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/maine-nebraska-change-electoral-college-laws-trump-rcna171915
- ^ Sanderford, Aaron (September 23, 2024). "State Sen. Mike McDonnell deflates GOP hopes for Nebraska winner-take-all in 2024 • Nebraska Examiner". Nebraska Examiner. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
- ^ "In a blow to Trump, Nebraska governor won't call a special session to change state's electoral votes". NBC News. September 24, 2024. Retrieved September 30, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". Cook Political Report.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". The Hill.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". CNalysis.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN.
- ^ "Trump v Harris: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Toplines: Independent Center Oct 2024 Online Survey of Likely Voters in Nebraska" (PDF). Independent Center. October 2, 2024. Retrieved October 2, 2024.
- ^ "Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #27302". SurveyUSA. September 24, 2024. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
- ^ Pollock, Jefrey (September 19, 2024). "NE US SEN — More positive polling for Osborn, Fischer goes hard negative" (PDF). FiveThirtyEight.
- ^ a b Jain, Lakshya; McCall, Max; Lavelle, Harrison; Sit, Leon (August 31, 2024). "We Polled Nebraska (And Its Second District). Here's What We Found". Split Ticket.
- ^ a b Sanderford, Aaron (July 19, 2024). "Fischer, Trump lead statewide in Fischer's new Nebraska poll". Nebraska Examiner.
- ^ a b c Patterson, Katherine (May 6, 2024). "Osborn Trails Senator Fischer by Just 4 Points in Nebraska's Senate Race; Fischer Underwater in Favorability" (PDF). FiveThirtyEight.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ "Nebraska Survey Toplines - November 2023" (PDF). FiveThirtyEight. December 6, 2023.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (October 13, 2023). "Nebraska Poll: Trump Maintains Lead but Biden Cuts into 2020 Vote". Emerson Polling.
- ^ a b Epstein, Reid J.; Igielnik, Ruth; Baker, Camille (September 28, 2024). "Harris and Trump Are Neck and Neck in Michigan and Wisconsin, Polls Find". The New York Times.
- ^ Edwards-Levy, Ariel (September 27, 2024). "CNN Poll: Harris and Trump are tied in North Carolina, while vice president leads in Nebraska's 2nd District". CNN.
- ^ Sanderford, Aaron (August 20, 2024). "Harris leads Trump in new Nebraska 2nd District poll". Nebraska Examiner.
- ^ Riddle, Mark (August 21, 2024). "Governing Landscape and Messaging" (PDF). Future Majority.
- ^ "League of American Workers NE-02 Poll of Likely Voters". League of American Workers. May 23, 2024. Archived from the original on May 29, 2024.
- ^ "Statewide Candidate List" (PDF). NE SOS. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
- ^ "Nebraska Presidential Primary". AP News. June 17, 2024. Retrieved July 30, 2024.
- ^ Evnen, Robert (May 14, 2020). "The Nebraska Board of State Canvassers Official Report" (PDF). Nebraska Secretary of State. Retrieved July 28, 2024.
- ^ "Nebraska Presidential Primary Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved May 14, 2024.
- ^ "Statewide Candidate List List as of 3/18/2024 10:41:21 AM" (PDF). Nebraska Secretary of State. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
- ^ "Nebraska Secretary of State – Election Night Results – May 14th, 2024". Nebraska Secretary of State. Retrieved June 22, 2024.
EncycloReader
is supported by the 
KSF