![]() | |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
|
Elections in Nevada |
---|
![]() |
![]() |
The 2024 United States presidential election in Nevada is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Nevada voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Nevada has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
A Mountain West state with a distinct Libertarian streak, Nevada is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024, although no Republican presidential nominee has won Nevada since George W. Bush's narrow victory in 2004. Except in 2008, the wins were always in single digits for Democrats; Obama won by less than 7% in 2012 and Trump lost by less than 2.5% in both 2016 and 2020.
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[2] Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, as he announced in March.[3]
Despite Trump not carrying Nevada in either of his two presidential campaigns, polling in the state has shown Trump in a strong position to win the state which would be the first time a Republican has done so since 2004. Biden has not led Trump in a poll since October 2023.
The Nevada Democratic primary was held on February 6, 2024.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
Joe Biden (incumbent) | 119,758 | 89.3% | 36 | 36 | |
None of These Candidates | 7,448 | 5.6% | |||
Marianne Williamson | 4,101 | 3.1% | |||
Gabriel Cornejo | 811 | 0.6% | |||
Jason Palmer | 530 | 0.4% | |||
Frankie Lozada | 315 | 0.2% | |||
Armando Perez-Serrato | 264 | 0.2% | |||
John Haywood | 241 | 0.2% | |||
Stephen Lyons | 147 | 0.1% | |||
Superpayaseria Crystalroc | 133 | 0.1% | |||
Donald Picard | 124 | 0.1% | |||
Brent Foutz | 93 | 0.1% | |||
Stephen Alan Leon | 89 | 0.1% | |||
Mark R. Prascak | 33 | <0.1% | |||
Total: | 134,087 | 100% | 36 | 13 | 49 |
Although the Nevada state government established a primary system in 2021, the state Republican Party chose to boycott the primary, scheduled for February 6, in favor of a party-organized caucus, scheduled for February 8. Votes from the primary will not be included in determining delegate allocation.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
---|---|---|
None of These Candidates[6] | 50,763 | 63.26% |
Nikki Haley | 24,583 | 30.63% |
Mike Pence (withdrawn) | 3,091 | 3.85% |
Tim Scott (withdrawn) | 1,081 | 1.35% |
John Anthony Castro | 270 | 0.34% |
Hirsh V. Singh (withdrawn) | 200 | 0.25% |
Donald Kjornes | 166 | 0.21% |
Heath V. Fulkerson | 95 | 0.12% |
Total: | 80,249 | 100.00% |
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Donald Trump | 59,982 | 99.11% | 25 | 1[a] | 26 |
Ryan Binkley | 540 | 0.89% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total | 60,522 | 100.00% | 25 | 1 | 26 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Cook Political Report[8] | Lean R (flip) | July 9, 2024 |
Inside Elections[9] | Tossup | May 9, 2024 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Tossup | June 29, 2023 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[11] | Tossup | December 14, 2023 |
CNalysis[12] | Lean R (flip) | July 16, 2024 |
CNN[13] | Lean R (flip) | January 14, 2024 |
The Economist[14] | Lean R (flip) | July 7, 2024 |
538[15] | Tossup | June 11, 2024 |
RCP[16] | Tossup | June 26, 2024 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | July 1–5, 2024 | 452 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
Emerson College[A] | June 30 – July 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 47% | 12% |
Remington Research Group (R) | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 47% | 13% |
National Public Affairs | June 28 – July 1, 2024 | 817 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 39% | 49% | 12%[c] |
Emerson College | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50%[d] | 50% | – | ||
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[B] | June 12–18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
Fox News | June 1–4, 2024 | 1,069 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 50% | 5% |
The Tyson Group[C] | May 22–25, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | May 19–21, 2024 | 522 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 42% | 50% | 8% |
494 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 43% | 51% | 6% | ||
Prime Group[D] | May 9–16, 2024 | 468 (RV) | – | 50% | 50% | – |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | May 7–13, 2024 | 459 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) | May 6–13, 2024 | 402 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 40% | 49% | 11% |
New York Times/Siena College | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 614 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 50% | 12% |
614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 51% | 11% | ||
Emerson College | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49%[d] | 51% | – | ||
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | April 8–15, 2024 | 450 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 51% | 6% |
Wall Street Journal | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
Echelon Insights[E] | March 12–19, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.8% | 44% | 51% | 5% |
Emerson College | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 44% | 15% |
1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49%[d] | 51% | – | ||
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | March 8–15, 2024 | 447 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
Noble Predictive Insights | February 27 – March 5, 2024 | 829 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 45% | 15% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | February 12–20, 2024 | 445 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
Emerson College | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 46% | 14% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | January 16–21, 2024 | 457 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 40% | 48% | 12% |
Emerson College | January 5–8, 2024 | 1,294 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
Change Research/Future Majority (D) | December 3–7, 2023 | (RVs) | – | 40% | 44% | 14% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 451 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 437 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
Emerson College | October 30 – November 4, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 46% | 14% |
New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 52% | 7% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 5–10, 2023 | 503 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | 11% |
CNN | September 29 – October 3, 2023 | 1,251 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
Vote TXT | May 15–19, 2023 | 412 (RV) | – | 41% | 48% | 11% |
Prime Group[F] | June 14–28, 2023 | 500 (RV) | – | 51% | 49% | – |
500 (RV) | – | 39% | 39% | 22%[e] | ||
Noble Predictive Insights | April 18–26, 2023 | 613 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 40% | 12% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R) | April 17–20, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
OH Predictive Insights | January 30 – February 6, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 42% | 18% |
Rasmussen Reports (R) | November 8–9, 2022 | 679 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 45% | 14% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research | October 24–27, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
Rasmussen Reports (R)[G] | October 13–17, 2022 | 707 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 49% | 14% |
Emerson College | September 8–10, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 43% | 17% |
Emerson College | July 7–10, 2022 | 2,000 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 40% | 43% | 17% |
Blueprint Polling (D) | March 21–24, 2022 | 671 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 34% | 44% | 22% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YouGov[H] | July 4–12, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 42% | 46% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 8% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | July 1–5, 2024 | 452 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 39% | 45% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 8%[f] |
National Public Affairs | June 28 – July 1, 2024 | 817 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 33% | 42% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 8% |
Emerson College | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 42% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 8% |
Fox News | June 1–4, 2024 | 1,069 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 45% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 4% |
The Tyson Group[I] | May 22–25, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 40% | 9% | 1% | 2% | 11% |
Prime Group[D] | May 9–16, 2024 | 468 (RV) | – | 43% | 44% | 10% | 3% | 0% | – |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | May 7–13, 2024 | 459 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 39% | 44% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 7% |
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) | May 6–13, 2024 | 402 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 35% | 43% | 10% | 2% | 3% | 7% |
New York Times/Siena College | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 614 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 27% | 41% | 12% | 0% | 2% | 18%[g] |
614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 30% | 44% | 11% | 0% | 1% | 14%[g] | ||
Emerson College | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 42% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 11% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | April 8–15, 2024 | 450 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 34% | 48% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 6% |
Wall Street Journal | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 33% | 37% | 15% | 2% | 2% | 11%[g] |
Emerson College | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 41% | 9% | 1% | 2% | 11% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | March 8–15, 2024 | 447 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 36% | 42% | 11% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
Noble Predictive Insights | February 27 – March 5, 2024 | 829 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 33% | 40% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 10% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | February 12–20, 2024 | 445 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 37% | 44% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 9% |
Emerson College | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 34% | 44% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 14% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | January 16–21, 2024 | 457 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 31% | 43% | 12% | 1% | 2% | 11% |
Emerson College | January 5–8, 2024 | 1,294 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 39% | 42% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 451 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 37% | 42% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 7% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P2 Insights[J] | June 11–20, 2024 | 650 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 37% | 40% | 8% | 15% |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[B] | June 12–18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 44% | 10% | 9% |
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | May 19–21, 2024 | 522 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 44% | 9% | 7% |
494 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 46% | 8% | 6% | ||
Iron Light Intelligence[K] | May 17–21, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 37% | 15% | 14% |
New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 31% | 38% | 23% | 8% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 437 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 35% | 39% | 11% | 1% | 14% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 48% | 13% |
New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 32% | 49% | 19% |
New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 37% | 46% | 17% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 45% | 14% |
Vote TXT | May 15–19, 2023 | 412 (RV) | – | 36% | 46% | 17% |
Noble Predictive Insights | April 18–26, 2023 | 613 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R) | April 17–20, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 44% | 10% |
OH Predictive Insights | January 30 – February 6, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 36% | 42% | 22% |
Emerson College | July 7–10, 2022 | 2,000 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 38% | 43% | 19% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Susquehanna Polling & Research | October 24–27, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 42% | 46% | 12% |