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2024 United States presidential election in New York
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| Elections in New York State |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in New York was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New York voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New York had 28 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1]
Though it remained comfortably Democratic, New York swung the hardest to the right out of every state in the nation from the 2020 election, with Trump greatly improving his performance by winning 44.13% of the state's vote, compared to 36.75% in the 2016 election and 37.74% in 2020. All counties in the state except for Yates swung to the right, with counties in Downstate New York having the strongest swings to the right.[citation needed]
Polling had indicated a potentially closer race in New York in 2024 than in 2016 or 2020, but Democrats still consistently led by margins well outside the margin of error.[2][3] Nonetheless, Trump's performance in New York was the strongest of any Republican presidential candidate since Vice President George H. W. Bush lost by just 4.1 points in the 1988 United States presidential election.[4] It is also the first presidential election since 1956 in which New York voted to the right of Washington state (which had the smallest swing to the right in this election), the first since 1960 when New York voted to the right of Connecticut, and the first since 1980 when New York voted to the right of Delaware.
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The 2024 New York Democratic presidential primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside primaries in Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 288,138 | 80.7% | 268 | 268 | |
| Marianne Williamson | 15,573 | 4.4% | |||
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 11,309 | 3.2% | |||
| Blank ballots | 41,113 | 11.5% | |||
| Void ballots | 903 | 0.3% | |||
| Total: | 357,036 | 100.0% | 268 | 38 | 306 |
Primary polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden |
Different Candidate |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College[6] | Sep 10–13, 2023 | 804 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 54% | 40% | 6% |
| Siena College[7] | Aug 13–16, 2023 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Siena College[8] | Jun 20–25, 2023 | 817 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 54% | 40% | 6% |
| Siena College[9] | May 7–11, 2023 | 810 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 56% | 40% | 4% |
| Siena College[10] | Mar 19–22, 2023 | 802 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 43% | 51% | 7% |
Republican primary
[edit]The New York Republican primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside the Connecticut primary.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 132,698 | 81.2% | 91 | 91 | |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 21,145 | 12.9% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 6,679 | 4.1% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 1,667 | 1.0% | |||
| Blank or void ballots | 1,311 | 0.8% | |||
| Total: | 163,500 | 100.0% | 91 | 91 | |
General election
[edit]Only two candidates appeared on the ballot in New York: Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Harris will be under the Democratic and Working Families Party ticket while Trump will be running on the Republican and the New York Conservative Party ticket.[12] Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will not be appearing on the ballot in New York[13] after Judge Christina Ryba of the 3rd New York Judicial District[14] ruled that he had listed his place of residence as being in Katonah, New York, to be false and that he actually lived in Los Angeles.[15]
The state authorized votes for 12 write-in candidates:[16]
- Shiva Ayyadurai
- Claudia de la Cruz, nominee of the Party for Socialism and Liberation
- Chris Garrity
- Garry Hubbard
- Andre Ramon McNeil Sr
- Chase Oliver, nominee of the Libertarian Party
- Future Madam Potus
- Raymond Anthony Scollin, former Franklin County Republican Committee chairman[17]
- Peter Sonski, nominee of the American Solidarity Party
- Jill Stein, nominee of the Green Party
- Cornel West
These electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[18]
| Kamala Harris and Tim Walz Democratic Party Working Families Party |
Donald Trump and JD Vance Republican Party Conservative Party |
|---|---|
| Kathy Hochul Jay Jacobs Eric Adams Mohammed Akber Alam Stuart Appelbaum Byron Brown Mario Cliento Michelle Crentsil Antonio Delgado Thomas DiNapoli Hazel Dukes Thomas J. Garry Vanessa Gibson George Gresham Carl Heastie Letitia James Gary LaBarbera Carolyn Maloney Luis Miranda Crystal Peoples-Stokes Christine Quinn Katherine Sheehan Anastasia Somoza Andrea Stewart-Cousins Gerard J. Sweeney Sandra Ung Latrice Walker Randi Weingarten |
Edward F. Cox William Barclay Bruce Blakeman Joe Borelli Karl Brabenec John Burnett Joe Cairo Andrea Catsimatidis Benjamin Federman Jesse Garcia Mark Heberling Michael Kracker Michael McCormack Steven McLaughlin Tim McNulty Anthony Nunziato Rob Ortt Patrick Reilly Michael Rendino Jennifer Rich Sylvia Rowan Christopher Tague Trish Turner Joseph Whalen Lee Zeldin Ralph Lorigo Donald Mazzullo Michael Torres |
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[19] | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[20] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] | Safe D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[22] | Safe D | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[23] | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[24] | Solid D | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[25] | Safe D | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[26] | Solid D | August 23, 2024 |
| RCP[27] | Solid D | June 26, 2024 |
| NBC News[28] | Safe D | October 6, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co.[29] | November 2–3, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 57% | 41% | 2% |
| ActiVote[30] | October 7–27, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 59% | 41% | – |
| Siena College[31] | October 13–17, 2024 | 872 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 58% | 39% | 3% |
| ActiVote[32] | September 4–30, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 61% | 39% | – |
| Emerson College[33][A] | September 23–25, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 40% | 6%[b] |
| Siena College[34] | September 11–16, 2024 | 1,003 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 55% | 42% | 3% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| Democratic National Convention concludes | ||||||
| ActiVote[35] | August 1–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 58% | 42% | – |
| Democratic National Convention begins | ||||||
| Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. | ||||||
| Siena College[36] | July 28 – August 1, 2024 | 1,199 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 53% | 39% | 8% |
| Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
| SoCal Strategies (R)[37][B] | July 18–19, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 41% | 7% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College[34] | September 11–16, 2024 | 1,003 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 52% | 40% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 5% |
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College[31] | October 13–17, 2024 | 872 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 54% | 37% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 6%[c] |
| Siena College[36] | July 28 – August 1, 2024 | 1,199 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 37% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 10% |
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SoCal Strategies (R)[37][B] | July 18–19, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 41% | 7% |
| Siena College[38] | June 12–13 & 16–17, 2024 | 805 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 47% | 39% | 14% |
| Emerson College[39][C] | May 28–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| 55%[d] | 45% | – | ||||
| Siena College[40] | May 13–15, 2024 | 1,191 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 38% | 15% |
| Slingshot Strategies (D)[41] | May 2–3, 2024 | 1,059 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 56% | 37% | 17% |
| John Zogby Strategies[42][D] | April 13–21, 2024 | 749 (LV) | – | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Siena College[43] | April 15–17, 2024 | 806 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 47% | 37% | 16% |
| Siena College[44] | February 12–14, 2024 | 806 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 36% | 16% |
| Siena College[45] | January 14–17, 2024 | 807 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 46% | 37% | 17% |
| Siena College[46] | November 12–15, 2023 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 46% | 36% | 18% |
| Siena College[47] | October 15–19, 2023 | 1,225 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 37% | 17% |
| Siena College[48] | September 10–13, 2023 | 804 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 52% | 31% | 17% |
| Siena College[7] | August 13–16, 2023 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 34% | 19% |
| Siena College[8] | June 20–25, 2023 | 817 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 50% | 28% | 21% |
| SurveyUSA[49][E] | November 3–6, 2022 | 918 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 46% | 34% | 20% |
| Emerson College[50][C] | October 20–24, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 40% | 13% |
| SurveyUSA[51][F] | October 14–18, 2022 | 1,018 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 37% | 21% |
| Emerson College[52] | September 4–6, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 37% | 10% |
| SurveyUSA[53][E] | August 17–21, 2022 | 715 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 29% | 22% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[54] | August 7–9, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 40% | 8% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College[44] | February 12–14, 2024 | 806 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 32% | 13% | 6% | 7% |
| Siena College[45] | January 14–17, 2024 | 807 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 41% | 32% | 13% | 3% | 11% |
| Siena College[46] | November 12–15, 2023 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 37% | 28% | 18% | 5% | 11% |
| Siena College[47] | October 15–19, 2023 | 1,225 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 38% | 31% | 13% | 5% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[39][C] | May 28–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 38% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 9% |
Hypothetical polling with other candidates
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[42][D] | April 13–21, 2024 | 749 (LV) | – | 44% | 44% | 12% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[42][D] | April 13–21, 2024 | 749 (LV) | – | 45% | 39% | 16% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 4,112,525 | ||||
| Working Families | 262,852 | ||||
| Total | 4,375,377 | 55.9% | 5.01%
| ||
| Republican | 3,145,084 | ||||
| Conservative | 311,785 | ||||
| Total | 3,456,869 | 44.1% |  6.40%
| ||
| Write-in | 102,596 | ||||
| Total votes | 7,934,842 | 100 | |||
By county
[edit]
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Clinton (county seat: Plattsburgh)
- Essex (county seat: Elizabethtown)
- Nassau (county seat: Mineola)
- Rockland (county seat: New City)
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in New York
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]Partisan clients
References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "Now Deep Blue New York Is Turning Into a Battleground State for Biden". Yahoo News. July 10, 2024. Retrieved July 23, 2024.
- ^ "Trump Says He Has 'Good Chance' of Winning New York in November". Bloomberg.com. April 25, 2024. Retrieved July 23, 2024.
- ^ Donlevy, Katherine (November 6, 2024). "2024 presidential election marks closest New York has come to turning red in 30 years as Trump support surges in NYC". Retrieved November 14, 2024.
- ^ "Certified 2024 Democratic Presidential Primary Results". New York State Board of Elections. Retrieved May 1, 2024.
- ^ "Siena College" (PDF).
- ^ a b "Siena College Poll Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute August 13 - 16, 2023" (PDF). Siena College. August 22, 2023.
- ^ a b "Siena College Poll Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute June 20 - 25, 2023" (PDF). Siena College. June 28, 2023.
- ^ "Siena College" (PDF).
- ^ "Siena College" (PDF).
- ^ "Certified 2024 Republican Presidential Primary Results". New York State Board of Electiom. Retrieved May 20, 2024.
- ^ "The Green Papers: New York 2024 General Election". The Green Papers. Retrieved September 16, 2024.
- ^ Yilek, Caitlin; Novelo, Allison (August 23, 2024). "Map shows where RFK Jr. is on the ballot in the 2024 election". CBS News. Retrieved August 24, 2024.
- ^ "Albay Supreme & County Court". NYCOURTS.GOV. Retrieved August 24, 2024.
- ^ "What to know about the ruling that bounced RFK Jr. from the New York ballot". PBS News. Associated Press. August 14, 2024. Retrieved August 24, 2024.
- ^ Official Write-In Candidates for President. New York State Board of Elections. October 18, 2024. Retrieved October 30, 2024.
- ^ Morris, Chris (October 16, 2012). "For Ray and Matt Scollin, politics is all in the family". North Country Public Radio. Retrieved October 31, 2024.
- ^ "AMENDED Certification for the November 5, 2024 General Election" (PDF). New York Board of Elections. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 12, 2024. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 23, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
- ^ Canseco, Mario (November 4, 2024). "Battleground States Remain Closely Contested in U.S. Race". Research Co.
- ^ Allis, Victor (October 28, 2024). "Harris leads in New York". ActiVote.
- ^ a b "Siena College Poll Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute October 13-17, 2024" (PDF). Siena College. October 22, 2024.
- ^ Allis, Victor (October 1, 2024). "Harris has comfortable lead in New York". ActiVote.
- ^ Mueller, Julia (September 27, 2024). "Harris holds wide lead over Trump in New York: Poll". The Hill.
- ^ a b "Siena College Poll Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute September 11 - 16, 2024" (PDF). Siena College. September 19, 2024.
- ^ Allis, Victor (August 21, 2024). "Harris has a Smaller Lead in New York than in Previous Presidential Elections". ActiVote.
- ^ a b "Siena College Poll Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute July 28 - August 1, 2024" (PDF). Siena College. September 19, 2024.
- ^ a b "On Point Politics/SoCal Research Empire State Survey". Google Docs. July 19, 2024.
- ^ "Siena College Poll Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute June 12-13, 16-17, 2024" (PDF). Siena College. June 20, 2024.
- ^ a b Mumford, Camille (May 30, 2024). "New York 2024 Poll: Biden 48%, Trump 41%". Emerson Polling.
- ^ "Siena College Poll Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute May 13 - 15, 2024" (PDF). Siena College. May 22, 2024.
- ^ "Slingshot New York State Topline". Politico. May 11, 2024.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ "Siena College Poll Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute April 15 - 17, 2024" (PDF). Siena College. April 22, 2024.
- ^ a b "Siena College Poll Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute February 12 - 14, 2024" (PDF). Siena College. February 20, 2024.
- ^ a b "Siena College Poll Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute January 14 - 17, 2024" (PDF). Siena College. January 22, 2024.
- ^ a b "Siena College Poll Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute November 12 - 15, 2023" (PDF). Siena College. November 20, 2023.
- ^ a b "Siena College Poll Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute October 15 - 19, 2023" (PDF). Siena College. October 24, 2023.
- ^ "Siena College Poll Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute September 10 - 13, 2023" (PDF). Siena College. September 19, 2023.
- ^ "Majorities of NY Voters Feel Less Safe Today Than One Year Ago, Believe Cashless Bail Causing Crime to Increase; Strong Support For Gun Reform; Inflation, Abortion Remain Top Issues in Election; Voters Give Slim Advantage to Republican Party on Reducing Crime, Improving the Economy". SurveyUSA. November 7, 2022.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (October 28, 2022). "New York 2022: Hochul's Lead Over Zeldin Tightens; Independent Voters Flip Toward Zeldin". Emerson Polling.
- ^ "GOP Appears to be Having a Moment in New York as Biden Approval Falls, Trump Closes Gap in Hypothetical 2024 Rematch". SurveyUSA. October 19, 2022.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (September 9, 2022). "New York 2022: Hochul Maintains Double-Digit Lead Over Zeldin; Biden's Approval Increases 10 Points Among Young Voters". Emerson Polling.
- ^ "11 Weeks To NY Election, Incumbent Dem Kathy Hochul Holds Wide Lead Over GOP's Zeldin; Candidates Tie Among Those Focused on Inflation". SurveyUSA. August 22, 2022.
- ^ Campanile, Carl (August 11, 2022). "Lee Zeldin in striking distance of Kathy Hochul, voters tired of Chuck Schumer: poll". The New York Post.
- ^ "New York State Unofficial Election Night Results". Ny.gov. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
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