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2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina

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Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic



Elections in North Carolina
Federal government
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House of Representatives
State executive
Gubernatorial elections
Lieutenant Governor elections
Attorney General elections
Council of State elections
Secretary of State elections
State legislature
State Senate elections
State House elections
State judiciary
Judicial elections
Ballot measures
2012
Amendment 1
Mayoral elections
Charlotte mayoral elections
Cary mayoral elections
Durham mayoral elections
Fayetteville mayoral elections
Greensboro mayoral elections
Raleigh mayoral elections
Winston-Salem mayoral elections

The 2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. North Carolina voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of North Carolina has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.[1]

Although a Southern Bible Belt state, North Carolina has been competitive since the late 2000s – a trend primarily attributed to population growth – as the state has been narrowly decided in every presidential election by less than a 4% margin since 2008, when Barack Obama very narrowly carried the state and became the only Democratic presidential candidate to do so since Jimmy Carter of neighboring Georgia in 1976. However, Republicans have won every single federal statewide race in North Carolina since 2010. It flipped back into the GOP column in 2012 (the only one of the last four presidential elections where the winner won over 50% of the state's vote) and has been narrowly won by Republican nominee Donald Trump in the past two cycles.

It was the closest Republican state victory in 2012 and 2020, even as polls indicated a narrow win by Democrat Joe Biden in the latter. However, at the gubernatorial level, incumbent Democrat Roy Cooper has won both terms, and the presidential election is expected to be competitive. Today a purple to slightly red state, North Carolina is expected to be targeted by both parties in 2024, with major news organizations marking the state as a tossup or slightly leaning towards the Republican candidate Donald Trump.[2] Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot.[3] Incumbent president Biden was initially poised to run for re-election, but withdrew on July 21 and endorsed his vice president Kamala Harris. Throughout 2024, Trump won every poll in North Carolina against Biden, but his lead in the state has diminished since Harris was nominated to lead the Democratic ticket, with most polls within the margin of error in either direction.

Events and rule changes

[edit]

Voters must now show a voter ID at the polls and provide a copy of their ID with their mail-in ballots. Mail-in ballots received after election day also will not be counted.[4] There will also be more partisan poll-watchers.[5] The laws are similar to others passed in Republican-controlled states which Democrats have criticized as voter suppression.[4][5] Common Cause North Carolina and the League of Women Voters of North Carolina have been educating voters on the new rules.[4]

On September 12, 2024, the Republican National Committee sued to block the use of digital IDs, popular with students at the University of North Carolina, as a form of voter ID.[6] The plaintiffs sought a temporary restraining order, and alleged that the digital IDs did not comply with the state's voter identification requirements and were susceptible to fraud.[6] On September 20, 2024, Wake County Superior Court Judge Keith Gregory rejected the request for a temporary restraining order, stating that the Republican National Committee had not "advanced any credible link between the State Board's approval of Mobile One Cards and a heightened risk of ineligible voters casting illegal votes."[6]

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was granted the status of presidential candidate in July 2024 for North Carolina after state authorities recognised the political party he founded, 'We the People', which allowed Kennedy to qualify using 13,757 signatures, instead of the 82,542 signatures required for a candidate with no party.[7][8] The North Carolina Democratic Party filed a lawsuit alleging that Kennedy was improperly using his party to avoid higher qualification requirements, but this lawsuit against Kennedy was unsuccessful.[8] On August 27, Kennedy asked state authorities to remove him as a presidential candidate in North Carolina; on August 28, the We the People party officially made the same request to state authorities; both requests were initially denied due to ballots already being printed and upcoming deadlines, with North Carolina law mandating that absentee ballots should be mailed by authorities from September 6.[9][10]

Kennedy responded by launching a lawsuit demanding to be removed as a presidential candidate in North Carolina, with Kennedy previously saying that "by staying on the ballot in the battleground states, I would likely hand the election over to the Democrats", while Kennedy remained as a presidential candidate in non-battleground states and indicated that his lawsuit to become a presidential candidate in New York would continue.[8][10][11] While Wake County Superior Court ruled against Kennedy, he appealed and the North Carolina Court of Appeals ruled for Kennedy on September 6, ordering for authorities to reprint ballots without Kennedy as a candidate.[11] The North Carolina Supreme Court affirmed the Court of Appeals' decision on September 9, so authorities went to reprint the ballots, which delayed the mailing date from the originally stipulated September 6 date to become September 20 for military and overseas voters and September 24 for other voters.[12]

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 North Carolina Democratic presidential primary

In North Carolina, candidates can make the primary ballot either by being nominated by the state party or by filing a nominating petition with at least 10,000 signatures.[13] The North Carolina Democratic Party submitted only Joe Biden as a candidate,[14] and no candidate submitted 10,000 signatures by the December 22, 2023 deadline.[15]

The cancellation was criticized by the Dean Phillips campaign, who started an online petition to get his candidacy on the ballot and threatened legal challenges.[14][16] Marianne Williamson and Cenk Uygur also criticized the moves.[14]

In addition to the candidates on the ballot, the "No Preference" option appeared on the Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian Presidential Preference Primary ballots. In 2012, when President Barack Obama did not face primary opposition in North Carolina, approximately twenty percent of voters opted for the "No Preference" option.[17]

The North Carolina Democratic presidential primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

North Carolina Democratic primary, March 5, 2024[18]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 609,680 87.27% 113
No Preference 88,900 12.73%
Total: 698,580 100.00% 132 132

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 North Carolina Republican presidential primary

The North Carolina Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

North Carolina Republican primary, March 5, 2024[19]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 793,978 73.84% 62 62
Nikki Haley 250,838 23.33% 12 12
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 14,740 1.37%
No Preference 7,448 0.69%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 3,418 0.32%
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 3,166 0.29%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 916 0.09%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) 727 0.07%
Total: 1,075,231 100.00% 74 74


Libertarian primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 North Carolina Libertarian presidential primary

The North Carolina Libertarian primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Ten candidates were presented on the ballot.[20]

North Carolina Libertarian primary, March 5, 2024
Candidate Votes Percentage
None of the Above 2,058 40.5%
Chase Oliver 676 13.3%
Jacob Hornberger 357 7.0%
Joshua Smith 354 7.0%
Michael Rectenwald 195 3.8%
Charles Ballay 183 3.6%
Lars Mapstead 176 3.5%
Mike ter Maat 137 2.7%
Other[a] 946 18.7%
Total: 5,082 100.0%
Source:[21]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[22] Tossup August 27, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] Tossup August 20, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[24] Tossup October 3, 2024
CNN[25] Tossup August 27, 2024
The Economist[26] Tossup September 10, 2024
538[27] Tossup August 27, 2024
CNalysis[28] Tossup September 15, 2024
Inside Elections[29] Tossup August 29, 2024
NBC News[30] Tossup October 6, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Undecided
[b] 		Margin
270ToWin September 30 – October 7, 2024 October 7, 2024 49.1% 47.7% 3.2% Trump +1.4%
RacetotheWH through October 6, 2024 October 7, 2024 48.8% 48.4% 2.8% Trump +0.4%
The Hill/DDHQ through October 6, 2024 October 6, 2024 49.2% 48.5% 2.3% Trump +0.7%
Silver Bulletin through October 2, 2024 October 7, 2024 48.7% 48.0% 3.3% Trump +0.7%
538 through October 6, 2024 October 7, 2024 48.1% 47.3% 4.6% Trump +0.9%
Average 48.8% 48.0% 3.2% Trump +0.8%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
ActiVote[31] September 7 – October 6, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 49% 51% –
InsiderAdvantage (R)[32] September 29–30, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 49% 1%
Quinnipiac University[33] September 25–29, 2024 953 (LV) ± 3.2% 49% 48% 3%
Washington Post[34] September 25–29, 2024 1,001 (RV) ± 3.5% 50% 47% 3%[d]
1,001 (LV) 50% 48% 2%[d]
High Point University[35] September 20–29, 2024 814 (RV) ± 3.6% 46% 48% 6%[e]
589 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 48% 4%[e]
Emerson College[36][A] September 27–28, 2024 850 (LV) ± 3.3% 49% 48% 3%[d]
50%[f] 49% 1%[d]
RMG Research[37][B] September 25–27, 2024 780 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 46% 5%[g]
51%[f] 47% 2%[h]
AtlasIntel[38] September 20–25, 2024 1,173 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 51% 1%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[39] September 19–25, 2024 411 (LV) – 49% 49% 2%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[40] September 19–25, 2024 889 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 50% 3%
828 (LV) 48% 50% 2%
Fox News[41] September 20−24, 2024 991 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 50% 2%
787 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 49% 1%
Marist College[42] September 19−24, 2024 1,507 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 49% 3%[i]
1,348 (LV) ± 3.7% 49% 49% 2%[i]
The Bullfinch Group[43][C] September 20–23, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 48% 49% 3%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[44][D] September 19−22, 2024 1,078 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 46% 5%[j]
New York Times/Siena College[45] September 17–21, 2024 682 (RV) ± 4.2% 48% 47% 5%
682 (LV) 49% 47% 4%
Meredith College[46] September 18−20, 2024 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 48% 4%[k]
Victory Insights (R)[47] September 16−18, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 45% 6%
Emerson College[48] September 15–18, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 49% 3%[d]
49% 50%[f] 1%[d]
Morning Consult[49] September 9−18, 2024 1,314 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 49% 4%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[50][E] September 11–17, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 47% 3%[l]
TIPP Insights[51][F] September 11–13, 2024 973 (LV) ± 3.2% 49% 46% 5%
Elon University[52] September 4−13, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.8% 45% 46% 9%[m]
Trafalgar Group (R)[53] September 11–12, 2024 1,094 (LV) ± 2.9% 48% 46% 6%[j]
Quantus Insights (R)[54][G] September 11–12, 2024 815 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 47% 5%[n]
50% 48% 2%[o]
Quinnipiac University[55] September 4–8, 2024 940 (LV) ± 3.2% 47% 50% 3%[e]
Morning Consult[49] August 30 – September 8, 2024 1,369 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 48% 4%
SurveyUSA[56][H] September 4–7, 2024 900 (LV) ± 4.9% 46% 49% 5%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[57] September 5–6, 2024 692 (RV) ± 3.7% 47% 46% 7%[m]
619 (LV) 48% 47% 5%[p]
Patriot Polling[58] September 1–3, 2024 804 (RV) – 50% 48% 2%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[59] August 29–31, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 48% 3%[p]
ActiVote[60] August 6–31, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 50% 50% –
Emerson College[61] August 25–28, 2024 775 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 48% 3%
50%[f] 49% 1%[d]
SoCal Strategies (R)[62][I] August 26–27, 2024 612 (LV) – 50% 46% 4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[63] August 23–26, 2024 645 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 49% 2%
700 (RV) 47% 49% 4%
Fox News[64] August 23–26, 2024 999 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 49% 1%[l]
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
August 22, 2024 Democratic National Convention concludes
High Point University/SurveyUSA[65] August 19–21, 2024 1,053 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 46% 9%
941 (LV) 47% 47% 6%
Spry Strategies (R)[66][J] August 14–20, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 47% 6%
August 19, 2024 Democratic National Convention begins
Focaldata[67] August 6–16, 2024 702 (LV) ± 3.7% 50% 50% –
New York Times/Siena College[68] August 9–14, 2024 655 (RV) ± 4.2% 46% 49% 5%
655 (LV) 47% 49% 4%
Trafalgar Group (R)[69] August 6–8, 2024 1,082 (LV) ± 2.9% 49% 45% 6%
Navigator Research (D)[70] July 31 – August 8, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 46% 6%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[71] July 26 – August 8, 2024 403 (LV) – 47% 48% 5%
August 6, 2024 Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[72] July 24–28, 2024 706 (RV) ± 4.0% 48% 46% 6%
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
July 15–19, 2024 Republican National Convention
July 13, 2024 Attempted assassination of Donald Trump
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[73] May 7–13, 2024 704 (RV) ± 4.0% 50% 40% 10%
Emerson College[74] February 14–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 41% 9%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Others/
Undecided
[q] 		Margin
Race to the WH through September 29, 2024 October 7, 2024 47.2% 47.9% 1.0% 0.8% — 3.1% Trump +0.7%
270toWin September 28 – October 7, 2024 October 7, 2024 47.8% 47.6% 0.8% 1.0% 0.3% 2.5% Harris +0.2%
Average 47.5% 47.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.3% 2.6% Trump +0.3%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[75] September 27 – October 2, 2024 753 (LV) – 47% 45% – 1% 0% 7%
Quinnipiac University[33] September 25–29, 2024 953 (LV) ± 3.2% 49% 47% 1% 1% 0% 2%[r]
East Carolina University[76] September 23–26, 2024 1,005 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 47% 0% 0% 1% 3%
AtlasIntel[38] September 20–25, 2024 1,173 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 51% 1% 1% 0% –
CNN/SSRS[77] September 20–25, 2024 931 (LV) ± 3.9% 48% 48% 1% 0% 1% 2%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[39] September 19–25, 2024 411 (LV) – 46% 49% 1% 2% – 2%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[40] September 19–25, 2024 889 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 48% – 1% 3% 2%
828 (LV) 47% 49% – 0% 2% 2%
Fox News[41] September 20−24, 2024 991 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 48% 1% 1% 1% 2%
787 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 47% 1% 1% 1% 1%
New York Times/Siena College[45] September 17–21, 2024 682 (RV) ± 4.2% 46% 46% – 0% 1% 7%
682 (LV) 47% 45% – 0% 1% 7%
Meredith College[78] September 18–20, 2024 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 48% 0% 1% 1% 2%[r]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[79] September 16–19, 2024 868 (LV) – 48% 47% – 0% 0% 5%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[50][E] September 11–17, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 46% 1% 1% 1% 3%
Cygnal (R)[80][K] September 15–16, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 45% 2% 0% 1% 6%[r]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[81] September 6–9, 2024 495 (LV) – 44% 45% – 0% 0% 11%
Quinnipiac University[55] September 4–8, 2024 940 (LV) ± 3.2% 46% 49% 0% 1% 0% 4%[d]
YouGov[82][L] August 23 – September 3, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.9% 47% 46% 0% 1% – 6%[l]
East Carolina University[83] August 26–28, 2024 920 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 47% 0% 0% 1% 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[84] August 25–28, 2024 1,071 (LV) – 45% 44% – 1% 1% 9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[63] August 23–26, 2024 700 (RV) ± 4.0% 47% 48% – 1% 2% 2%
645 (LV) 48% 48% – 1% 2% 1%
Fox News[64] August 23–26, 2024 999 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 47% 2% 1% 1% 1%[l]
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
Spry Strategies (R)[66][J] August 14–20, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 47% 3% – 1% – 4%
Focaldata[67] August 6–16, 2024 702 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 47% 5% – 1% 0% 1%
702 (RV) 44% 47% 6% – 1% 0% 2%
702 (A) 43% 47% 7% – 1% 0% 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[85] August 12–15, 2024 601 (LV) – 47% 44% 2% – 0% 1% 6%
New York Times/Siena College[68] August 9–14, 2024 655 (RV) ± 4.2% 42% 45% 5% 0% 2% 1% 4%
655 (LV) 44% 46% 4% 0% 1% 1% 4%
YouGov Blue (D)[86][M] August 5–9, 2024 802 (RV) ± 3.9% 46% 46% 2% 0% 0% 0% 5%
Navigator Research (D)[70] July 31 – August 8, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 46% 3% 0% 1% 0% 4%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[71] July 26 – August 8, 2024 403 (LV) – 44% 46% 4% 0% 1% – 5%
Cygnal (R)[87][K] August 4–5, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 44% 4% – 0% 1% 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[88] July 31 – August 3, 2024 714 (LV) – 44% 41% 4% – 0% 1% 10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[72] July 24–28, 2024 706 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 44% 5% – 0% 4% 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[89] July 22–24, 2024 586 (LV) – 46% 43% 4% – 0% 0% 7%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[90][N] July 17–20, 2024 573 (RV) ± 4.1% 48% 44% 2% 2% 4%
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Quantus Insights (R)[54][G] September 11–12, 2024 815 (LV) ± 3.4% 49% 42% 9%[n]
Public Policy Polling (D)[90][N] July 17–20, 2024 573 (RV) ± 4.1% 50% 46% 4%
Emerson College[91][O] July 15–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 41% 11%
Echelon Insights[92][P] July 1–8, 2024 610 (LV) ± 5.0% 47% 45% 8%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[93] July 1–5, 2024 696 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 43% 11%
Spry Strategies (R)[94] June 7–11, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 44% 8%
East Carolina University[95] May 31 – June 3, 2024 1,332 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 43% 9%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[96][F] May 29 – June 2, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 41% 10%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[97][Q] May 26–27, 2024 1,053 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 43% 6%
Change Research (D)[98][R] May 13–18, 2024 835 (LV) ± 3.8% 45% 43% 12%
Prime Group[99][S] May 9–16, 2024 472 (RV) – 51% 49% –
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[100] May 7–13, 2024 704 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 42% 9%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[101] May 6–13, 2024 601 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 41% 11%
High Point University[102] May 5–9, 2024 804 (RV) ± 3.2% 44% 42% 14%
Emerson College[103] April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 42% 11%
52%[f] 48% –
John Zogby Strategies[104][T] April 13–21, 2024 641 (LV) – 49% 45% 6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[105] April 8–15, 2024 703 (RV) ± 4.0% 51% 41% 8%
Mason-Dixon[106] April 9–13, 2024 635 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 43% 8%
Quinnipiac University[107] April 4–8, 2024 1,401 (RV) ± 2.6% 48% 46% 6%
High Point University[108] March 22–30, 2024 829(RV) ± 3.4% 45% 42% 14%
Wall Street Journal[109] March 17–24, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 43% 8%
Marist College[110] March 11–14, 2024 1,197 (RV) ± 3.6% 51% 48% 1%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[111] March 8–12, 2024 699 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 43% 8%
SurveyUSA[112][H] March 3–9, 2024 598 (LV) ± 4.9% 50% 45% 5%
Cygnal (R)[113][U] March 6–7, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 40% 15%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[114] February 12–20, 2024 704 (RV) ± 5.0% 50% 41% 9%
Emerson College[74] February 14–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 44% 9%
Fox News[115] February 8–12, 2024 1,099 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 45% 5%
Meredith College[116] January 26–31, 2024 760 (RV) ± 3.5% 44% 39% 17%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[117] January 16–21, 2024 706 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 39% 12%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[118] November 27 – December 6, 2023 704 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 40% 11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[119] October 30 – November 7, 2023 702 (RV) ± 4.0% 48% 39% 13%
Meredith College[120] November 1–5, 2023 755 (RV) ± 3.5% 39% 40% 22%[s]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[121] October 5–10, 2023 702 (RV) ± 4.0% 47% 43% 10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[122] October 7–9, 2023 736 (LV) – 43% 38% 20%
Change Research (D)[123][R] September 1–5, 2023 914 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 42% 12%
Prime Group[124][S] June 14–28, 2023 500 (RV) – 54% 46% –
45% 37% 18%[t]
Opinion Diagnostics[125] June 5–7, 2023 902 (LV) ± 3.3% 43% 40% 18%
Cygnal (R)[126][U] March 26–27, 2023 605 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 45% 12%
Differentiators (R)[127][V] January 9–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 45% 48% 7%
Emerson College[128] October 27–29, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 40% 9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[129][R] October 7–8, 2022 606 (RV) – 44% 44% 12%
SurveyUSA[130][H] September 28 – October 2, 2022 918 (RV) ± 3.9% 43% 45% 12%
Emerson College[131] September 15–16, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 42% 11%
East Carolina University[132] September 7–10, 2022 1,020 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 45% 9%
Blueprint Polling (D)[133] August 4–6, 2022 656 (LV) ± 3.8% 45% 39% 17%
PEM Management Corporation (R)[134][W] July 22–24, 2022 300 (LV) ± 5.7% 48% 41% 11%
East Carolina University[135] May 19–20, 2022 635 (RV) ± 4.5% 46% 37% 16%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[90][N] July 17–20, 2024 573 (RV) ± 4.1% 48% 42% 2% – 2% 6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[136] July 16–18, 2024 461 (LV) – 45% 39% 5% – 1% 10%[u]
Emerson College[91][O] July 15–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 38% 6% 1% 1% 7%[u]
YouGov[137][L] July 4–12, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.7% 44% 40% 4% 0% 1% 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[138] July 8–10, 2024 420 (LV) – 44% 42% 4% – 1% 9%[v]
Echelon Insights[92][P] July 1–8, 2024 610 (LV) ± 5.0% 43% 41% 7% 2% 1% 6%[u]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[93] July 1–5, 2024 696 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 40% 7% 1% 1% 9%[u]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[139] June 8–11, 2024 534 (LV) – 43% 40% 7% – 1% 9%[v]
North Star Opinion Research (R)[96][F] May 29 – June 2, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 32% 9% 3% 2% 10%
Prime Group[99][S] May 9–16, 2024 472 (RV) – 45% 42% 11% 2% 1% –
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[100] May 7–13, 2024 704 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 38% 7% 1% 1% 7%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[101] May 6–13, 2024 601 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 36% 8% 3% 1% 8%
Emerson College[103] April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 37% 6% 1% 1% 9%
Meeting Street Insights (R)[140][X] April 25–28, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 40% 35% 11% – 2% 12%[w]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[105] April 8–15, 2024 703 (RV) ± 4.0% 48% 38% 5% 1% 0% 8%
Quinnipiac University[107] April 4–8, 2024 1,401 (RV) ± 2.6% 41% 38% 12% 3% 3% 3%
Wall Street Journal[109] March 17–24, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 34% 10% 2% 1% 11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[111] March 8–12, 2024 699 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 39% 7% 1% 0% 8%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[114] February 12–20, 2024 704 (RV) ± 5.0% 45% 35% 9% 1% 1% 9%
Emerson College[74] February 14–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 37% 5% 1% 1% 10%
East Carolina University[141] February 9–12, 2024 1,207 (LV) ± 3.3% 47% 44% 2% 1% 1% 5%
Fox News[115] February 8–12, 2024 1,099 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 37% 8% 1% 2% 6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[142] January 16–21, 2024 706 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 32% 9% 1% 1% 12%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[143] November 27 – December 6, 2023 704 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 34% 8% 1% 1% 11%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Spry Strategies (R)[94] June 7–11, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 37% 8% 10%
Change Research (D)[98][R] May 13–18, 2024 835 (LV) ± 3.8% 41% 38% 11% 10%
Cygnal (R)[144][K] May 4–5, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 38% 9% 10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[145] May 2–4, 2024 700 (LV) – 44% 37% 7% 12%
Meredith College[146] April 11–17, 2024 711 (LV) ± 3.5% 41% 39% 9% 11%
Cygnal (R)[147][U] April 7–8, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 39% 7% 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[148] March 14–17, 2024 642 (LV) – 43% 39% 8% 10%
Marist College[110] March 11–14, 2024 1,197 (RV) ± 3.6% 46% 43% 11% –
North Star Opinion Research (R)[149][Y] January 30 – February 4, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 32% 16% 13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[150] December 28–30, 2023 1,220 (LV) – 37% 33% 11% 19%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[151] November 27–29, 2023 620 (LV) – 44% 35% 8% 13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[122] October 7–9, 2023 736 (LV) – 41% 38% 9% 14%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[152] October 30 – November 7, 2023 702 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 33% 9% 2% 14%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[104][T] April 13–21, 2024 641 (LV) – 45% 39% 16%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[104][T] April 13–21, 2024 641 (LV) – 50% 40% 10%

Donald Trump vs. Roy Cooper vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Roy
Cooper
Democratic 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[90][N] July 17–20, 2024 573 (RV) ± 4.1% 45% 41% 3% 2% 9%

Donald Trump vs. Gavin Newsom

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Gavin
Newsom
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[74] February 14–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 34% 17%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Fox News[115] February 8–12, 2024 1,099 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 41% 13%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
East Carolina University[141] February 9–12, 2024 1,207 (LV) ± 3.3% 32% 40% 10% 2% 0% 16%
Fox News[115] February 8–12, 2024 1,099 (RV) ± 3.0% 31% 33% 19% 2% 2% 13%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[151] November 27–29, 2023 620 (LV) – 36% 33% 12% 18%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Opinion Diagnostics[125] June 5–7, 2023 902 (LV) ± 3.3% 46% 40% 13%
Cygnal (R)[126][U] March 26–27, 2023 605 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 41% 15%
Differentiators (R)[127][V] January 9–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 49% 44% 7%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Other Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[151] November 27–29, 2023 620 (LV) – 38% 34% 12% 4% 12%

Mike Pence vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Pence
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Cygnal (R)[126][U] March 26–27, 2023 605 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 41% 20%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina[153]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic
Republican
Libertarian
Green
Constitution
Justice for All
Write-in
Total votes

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ 464 votes (9.1%) for David (TrimeTaveler) Dunlap, 320 votes (6.3%) for Beau Lindsey, 162 votes (3.2%) for Josh "Toad" Anderson.
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h "Someone else" with 1%
  5. ^ a b c "Someone else" with 2%
  6. ^ a b c d e With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  7. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  8. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  9. ^ a b "Another party's candidates" with 1%
  10. ^ a b "Other" with 2%
  11. ^ "Third party candidates" & "Undecided" with 2%
  12. ^ a b c d "Other" with 1%
  13. ^ a b "Another candidate" with 3%
  14. ^ a b "Some other candidate" with 3%
  15. ^ "Would not vote" with 2%
  16. ^ a b "Another candidate" with 2%
  17. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  18. ^ a b c Randall Terry (C) with 0%
  19. ^ "Someone else" with 17%
  20. ^ No Labels candidate
  21. ^ a b c d Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
  22. ^ a b Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
  23. ^ Charles Ballay (L) with 2%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  3. ^ Poll conducted for The Independent Center
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by American Thinker
  5. ^ a b Poll commissioned by AARP
  6. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  7. ^ a b Poll sponsored by TrendingPolitics
  8. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by WRAL-TV
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
  10. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the American Principles Project
  11. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by The Carolina Journal
  12. ^ a b Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
  13. ^ Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward
  14. ^ a b c d Poll conducted for Clean and Prosperous America PAC
  15. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
  16. ^ a b Poll sponsored by NetChoice
  17. ^ Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
  18. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward
  19. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
  20. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  21. ^ a b c d e Poll sponsored by the John Locke Foundation
  22. ^ a b Poll sponsored by NC Values Coalition, a sponsor of the Republican Party
  23. ^ Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
  24. ^ Poll sponsored by Carolina Partnership for Reform & Carolina Leadership Coalition
  25. ^ Poll sponsored by the League of American Workers

References

[edit]
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