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Elections in Ohio |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Ohio is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Ohio voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Ohio has 17 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1]
A heavily populated Midwestern state located mainly in the Rust Belt, and the southern portion of the state having cultural influence from the Upper South and Bible Belt, Ohio has been considered a vital bellwether state for decades and has been decided by single digits at the presidential level since 1992, but has been trending towards the political right in recent years and is now considered a moderately red state. The state voted significantly more Republican than the U.S. at-large when Donald Trump carried the state by just over 8 points in the past two elections despite polls showing a tight race in both cycles, especially 2020, in which the state backed the losing presidential candidate for the first time in 60 years.
The GOP's success in Ohio during the 2022 midterms has further testified to the state's rightward shift and the likely death of its bellwether and swing-state distinctions at the presidential level. Ohio is widely expected to be carried again by Trump in the November general election.[2] JD Vance's selection has been seen as a strategic effort to bolster support in the Midwest (especially his own home state) as well as among Trump supporters. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot.[3]
The election will be held concurrently with a U.S. Senate race in Ohio which, despite the state's current Republican lean, is expected to be competitive, among other state and local elections.
The Ohio Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside the Arizona, Illinois, Kansas primaries.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Joe Biden (incumbent) | 461,558 | 87.06% | 124 | ||
Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 68,629 | 12.94% | 3 | ||
Total: | 530,187 | 100.00% | 127 | 16 | 133 |
The Ohio Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Florida, and Illinois.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Donald Trump | 896,059 | 79.21% | 79 | 79 | |
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 162,563 | 14.37% | |||
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 38,089 | 3.37% | |||
Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 20,027 | 1.77% | |||
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 14,450 | 1.28% | |||
Total: | 1,131,188 | 100.00% | 79 | 79 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Cook Political Report[6] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
Inside Elections[7] | Likely R | April 26, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] | Safe R | June 13, 2024 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[9] | Likely R | December 14, 2023 |
CNalysis[10] | Likely R | December 30, 2023 |
CNN[11] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
The Economist[12] | Safe R | July 19, 2024 |
538[13] | Likely R | June 11, 2024 |
RCP[14] | Lean R | June 26, 2024 |
Due to the Democratic National Convention taking place on August 19, 2024, which occurs more than a week after the August 7 deadline to certify a presidential candidate to the office, under ordinary rules the eventual Democratic nominee would be disqualified from the ballot.[15][16] Efforts to create an emergency fix had stalled in the Ohio Legislature. The state House adjourned without considering a fix on May 8.[17] On May 21, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose provided an update confirming that efforts to rectify the situation were at an impasse, as the state legislature would not take up the issue and the Ohio Democratic Party had offered no "legally acceptable remedy" up to that point. He further clarified that if the party does not work toward a solution themselves, their presidential nominee will not be listed on the November ballot.[18]
On May 23, Governor Mike DeWine called for a special legislative session and tasked lawmakers with ensuring Biden's inclusion on the ballot. Republican leaders in the state Senate, with DeWine's support, hope to pass a bill that will tie solving the ballot access issue to a ban on foreign contributions toward ballot measure efforts in the state. Ohio Democratic Party chair Elizabeth Walters and state House minority leader Allison Russo have signaled their opposition to the ban, which has been described as a poison pill amendment; a spokesperson for DeWine later said that a bill dealing only with the ballot access issue could also be considered.[19]
After the state legislature appeared unable to address the issue, the Democratic Party announced on May 28 that a virtual roll call nomination, similar to the process used by the party in 2020, will take place two weeks before the 2024 Democratic National Convention in order to nominate Biden and meet Ohio's deadline.[20] Nonetheless, the Ohio legislature passed a bill on June 1 extending the deadline to August 23,[21] which DeWine signed on June 2.[22] However, because the law will not take effect until September 1, Democrats continued forward with the roll call to meet the original deadline.[23]
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Morning Consult[24] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 1,558 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 44% | 4% |
Emerson College[25] | September 3–5, 2024 | 945 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 53% | 43% | 4% |
54%[b] | 45% | 1%[c] | ||||
SoCal Strategies (R)[26][A] | August 31 – September 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 52% | 43% | 5% |
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
ActiVote[27] | August 2–22, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 56% | 44% | – |
Democratic National Convention | ||||||
Rasmussen Reports (R)[28][B] | August 13–17, 2024 | 1,267 (LV) | – | 51% | 44% | 5% |
Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. | ||||||
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[29][C] | July 23–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 42% | 6% |
Joe Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
Republican National Convention | ||||||
attempted assassination of Donald Trump | ||||||
Ohio Northern University[30] | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 38% | 11% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rasmussen Reports (R)[28][B] | August 13–17, 2024 | 1,267 (LV) | – | 50% | 42% | 4% | 1% | 0% | – | 3% |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[29][C] | July 23–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 39% | 9% | – | 1% | 1% | 2% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Remington Research Group (R)[31] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 611 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 41% | 8% |
National Public Affairs[32] | May 28–29, 2024 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 54% | 46% | – |
John Zogby Strategies[33][D] | April 13–21, 2024 | 643 (LV) | – | 52% | 42% | 6% |
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[34] | March 13–15, 2024 | 818 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
Ohio Northern University[30] | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 38% | 12% |
Emerson College[35][E] | March 7–10, 2024 | 1,300 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 50% | 41% | 9% |
55%[b] | 45% | – | ||||
Emerson College[36][E] | January 23–25, 2024 | 1,844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 47% | 36% | 17%[d] |
Emerson College/WJW-TV[37] | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 38% | 12% |
Data for Progress (D)[38] | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 43% | 6% |
Ohio Northern University[39] | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 40% | 15%[e] |
Emerson College[40] | October 2–4, 2023 | 438 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 45% | 33% | 23% |
Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)[41] | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,559 (RV) | – | 48% | 43% | 9% |
Ohio Northern University[42] | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
Targoz Market Research[43] | November 2–6, 2022 | 505 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 57% | 40% | 3% |
Emerson College[44] | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 38% | 12% |
Ohio Northern University/Lucid[45] | October 11–15, 2022 | 668 (LV) | – | 55% | 35% | 10% |
Emerson College[46] | October 6–7, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 40% | 12% |
Emerson College[47] | September 12–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 40% | 10% |
Echelon Insights[48] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 831 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
Emerson College[49] | August 15–16, 2022 | 925 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 53% | 39% | 8% |
PEM Management Corporation (R)[50][F] | July 22–24, 2022 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marist College[51] | June 3–6, 2024 | 1,137 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 41% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 4% |
National Public Affairs[32] | May 28–29, 2024 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 40% | 7% | 2% | 3% | – |
East Carolina University[52] | March 8–11, 2024 | 1,298 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 38% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
Emerson College[35][E] | March 7–10, 2024 | 1,300 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 47% | 38% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
Emerson College/WJW-TV[37] | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 31% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 13% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden. vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University[30] | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 32% | 13% | 11% |
Ohio Northern University[39] | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 35% | 11% | 12%[f] |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Cornel West Green |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)[41] | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,559 (RV) | – | 45% | 36% | 9% | 10% |
42% | 34% | 6% | 18%[g] | ||||
Suffolk University/USA Today[53] | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 38% | 2% | 16% |
Donald Trump vs. Gavin Newsom
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University[30] | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 33% | 16% |
Donald Trump vs. Gretchen Whitmer
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Gretchen Whitmer Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University[30] | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 34% | 15% |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies[33][D] | April 13–21, 2024 | 643 (LV) | – | 47% | 39% | 14% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies[33][D] | April 13–21, 2024 | 643 (LV) | – | 55% | 34% | 11% |
Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University[39] | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 34% | 36% | 30%[h] |
Ohio Northern University[42] | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 38% | 38% | 24% |
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University[39] | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 38% | 41% | 21%[e] |
Ohio Northern University[42] | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 41% | 39% | 20% |
Emerson College[46] | October 6–7, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 38% | 13% |
Emerson College[47] | September 12–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 38% | 14% |
Echelon Insights[48] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 831 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
Ron Desantis vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ron Desantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Cornel West Green |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Suffolk University/USA Today[53] | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 39% | 37% | 2% | 22% |
Chris Christie vs. Joe Biden
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Chris Christie Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University[42] | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 33% | 39% | 28% |
Mike Pence vs. Joe Biden
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mike Pence Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University[39] | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 38% | 38% | 24%[h] |
Ohio Northern University[42] | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 37% | 38% | 25% |
Tim Scott vs. Joe Biden
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Tim Scott Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University[42] | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 38% | 39% | 23% |
Generic Republican vs. Joe Biden
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Causeway Solutions[54] | May 19–27, 2023 | 1,639 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 33% | 22% |
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