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2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania
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| Elections in Pennsylvania |
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 Government |
The 2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Pennsylvania voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1]
A purple to slightly blue Northeastern state partly within the Rust Belt, Pennsylvania has not backed a Republican for president by double digits since 1972, when 49-state landslide winner Richard Nixon won it by nearly 20 points; and the last Republican to win the state's electoral votes twice was Ronald Reagan. Between 1992 and 2012, Pennsylvania voted Democratic in every presidential election, although doing so by single-digit margins in each of them apart from Barack Obama's 10.31% victory in 2008. In 2016, Republican Donald Trump (whose home state was neighboring New York in said cycle) narrowly carried the state by 0.72% in his upset sweep of the Rust Belt and the first Republican presidential victory in Pennsylvania since 1988, but four years later lost the state to Democrat Nominee Joe Biden by 1.18% as the latter defeated the former nationwide. Pennsylvania is considered to be one of the most important, if not the single most important swing state in 2024. It is generally believed that the candidate who wins Pennsylvania is almost certain to win the entire election. Most major news organizations mark it as a tossup.[2][better source needed]
Voting law changes
[edit]In 2022, no-excuse mail-in voting was upheld by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court.[3] Automatic voter registration was enacted in 2023, helping to register citizens when getting a driver's license.[4]
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 926,633 | 88.2% | 159 | 159 | |
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 68,310 | 6.5% | |||
| Write-in votes | 55,611 | 5.3% | |||
| Total: | 1,050,554 | 100.0% | 159 | 27 | 186 |
Republican primary
[edit]| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 790,690 | 82.8% | 16 | 46 | 62 |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 157,228 | 16.5% | |||
| Write-in votes | 10,387 | 1.2% | |||
| Unprojected delegates: | 5 | 5 | |||
| Total: | 958,305 | 100.0% | 16 | 51 | 67 |
General election
[edit]Trump assassination attempt
[edit]On July 13, 2024, Trump was shot and wounded in an assassination attempt while holding a campaign rally west of Butler, Pennsylvania. The former president was struck in the right ear while on stage and was surrounded by Secret Service agents until the shooter was killed by members of the Counter Assault Team. One rally-goer died and two others were critically injured.[7]
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[8] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] | Tossup | August 20, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[10] | Tossup | August 26, 2024 |
| CNN[11] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| The Economist[12] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| 538[13] | Tossup | September 19, 2024 |
| CNalysis[14] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[15] | Tossup | August 29, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270ToWin | September 25 – October 2, 2024 | October 2, 2024 | 48.4% | 47.9% | 3.7% | Harris +0.5% |
| RacetotheWH | through September 29, 2024 | October 5, 2024 | 49.2% | 47.6% | 3.1% | Harris +1.6% |
| The Hill/DDHQ | through September 29, 2024 | October 3, 2024 | 48.9% | 48.1% | 3.0% | Harris +0.8% |
| Silver Bulletin | through September 29, 2024 | October 5, 2024 | 48.9% | 47.6% | 3.5% | Harris +1.3% |
| 538 | through September 29, 2024 | October 5, 2024 | 47.9% | 47.3% | 4.8% | Harris +0.6% |
| Average | 48.7% | 47.7% | 3.6% | Harris +1.0% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[16][A] | September 28–29, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 47% | 6%[c] |
| Patriot Polling[17] | September 27–29, 2024 | 816 (RV) | – | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[18] | September 26–29, 2024 | 1,090 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 48% | 7%[c] |
| Emerson College[19][B] | September 27–28, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4%[d] |
| 49%[e] | 49% | 2%[d] | ||||
| AtlasIntel[20] | September 20–25, 2024 | 1,775 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 48% | 51% | 1% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[21] | September 19–25, 2024 | 474 (LV) | – | 50% | 49% | 1% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[22] | September 19–25, 2024 | 993 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| 924 (LV) | 51% | 46% | 3% | |||
| ActiVote[23] | September 1–25, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 52% | 48% | – |
| Fox News[24] | September 20−24, 2024 | 1,021 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| 775 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 49% | 2% | ||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[25][C] | September 17–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 47% | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[26][D] | September 19–22, 2024 | 1,202 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4%[f] |
| 50%[e] | 49% | 1%[f] | ||||
| Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)[27][E] | September 16–22, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 46% | 8%[f] |
| RMG Research[28][F] | September 18–20, 2024 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 47% | 5%[g] |
| 49%[e] | 49% | 3%[h] | ||||
| Muhlenberg College/Morning Call[29] | September 16–19, 2024 | 450 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 48% | 48% | 4%[i] |
| Emerson College[30] | September 15–18, 2024 | 880 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 48% | 5%[j] |
| 50%[e] | 49% | 1%[j] | ||||
| MassINC Polling Group[31][G] | September 12−18, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 47% | 1% |
| Morning Consult[32] | September 9−18, 2024 | 1,756 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| Marist College[33] | September 12−17, 2024 | 1,663 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 48% | 3%[k] |
| 1,476 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 49% | 2%[l] | ||
| Washington Post[34] | September 12−16, 2024 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 47% | 5%[m] |
| 1,003 (LV) | 48% | 48% | 4%[m] | |||
| Quinnipiac University[35] | September 12−16, 2024 | 1,331 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 51% | 46% | 2% |
| New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[36] | September 11−16, 2024 | 1,082 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
| 1,082 (LV) | 50% | 46% | 4% | |||
| Suffolk University/USA Today[37] | September 11−16, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[38] | September 14−15, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 50% | 2%[f] |
| The presidential debate between Harris and Trump hosted by ABC | ||||||
| Morning Consult[32] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 1,910 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| co/efficient (R)[39] | September 4–6, 2024 | 889 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| CBS News/YouGov[40] | September 3–6, 2024 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 50% | – |
| Patriot Polling[41] | September 1–3, 2024 | 857 (RV) | – | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[42] | August 28–30, 2024 | 1,082 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 47% | 8%[c] |
| Wick Insights[43][H] | August 27–29, 2024 | 1,607 (LV) | – | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| Emerson College[44] | August 25–28, 2024 | 950 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 48% | 4%[j] |
| 49%[e] | 49% | 1%[j] | ||||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[45] | August 23–26, 2024 | 803 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 47% | 2% |
| 758 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 48% | 1% | ||
| SoCal Strategies (R)[46][I] | August 23, 2024 | 713 (LV) | – | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| 800 (RV) | 47% | 47% | 6% | |||
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| YouGov[47][J] | August 15–23, 2024 | 500 (A) | ± 5.1% | 43% | 43% | 14%[n] |
| – (LV) | ± 6.0% | 47% | 47% | 6%[o] | ||
| Democratic National Convention concludes | ||||||
| ActiVote[48] | August 5–22, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | 49% | – |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)[49][K] | August 19–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Spry Strategies (R)[50][L] | August 14–20, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[51] | August 18–19, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 47% | 7%[c] |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[52][M] | August 13–17, 2024 | 1,312 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Focaldata[53] | August 6–16, 2024 | 719 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 50% | – |
| Cygnal (R)[54] | August 14–15, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Emerson College[55][B] | August 13–14, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| 49%[e] | 51% | – | ||||
| Quinnipiac University[56] | August 8–12, 2024 | 1,738 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 50% | 47% | 3% |
| The Bullfinch Group[57][N] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| New York Times/Siena College[58] | August 6–9, 2024 | 693 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| 693 (LV) | 50% | 46% | 4% | |||
| Trafalgar Group (R)[59] | August 6–8, 2024 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Navigator Research (D)[60] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[61] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 49% | 48% | 3% |
| Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. | ||||||
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[62][O] | July 29 – August 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[63][P] | July 29–30, 2024 | 627 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| GQR Research (D)[64] | July 26–30, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 46% | 4%[p] |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[65][Q] | July 23–29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Quantus Polls and News[66] | July 27–28, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[67] | July 24–28, 2024 | 804 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 50% | 4% |
| The Bullfinch Group[68][R] | July 23–25, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Fox News[69] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,034 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| Emerson College[70] | July 22–23, 2024 | 850 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| 49%[e] | 51% | – | ||||
| Joe Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[71][S] | July 20–23, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | 9% |
| SoCal Strategies (R)[72][T] | July 20–21, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 50% | 4% |
| Republican National Convention concludes | ||||||
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[73] | July 15–16, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 47% | 13% |
| Republican National Convention begins | ||||||
| Attempted assassination of Donald Trump | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[74][P] | July 11–12, 2024 | 537 (RV) | – | 45% | 51% | 4% |
| New York Times/Siena College[75] | July 9–11, 2024 | 872 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| 872 (LV) | 47% | 48% | 5% | |||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[76] | May 7–13, 2024 | 812 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 50% | 7% |
| Emerson College[77] | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 49% | 11% |
| New York Times/Siena College[78] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| 600 (LV) | 44% | 48% | 8% | |||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Jill Stein Green |
Cornel West Independent |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Others/ Undecided [q] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH | through September 25, 2024 | October 4, 2024 | 48.5% | 46.7% | 0.9% | — | 0.7% | 3.2% | Harris +1.8% |
| 270toWin | September 26 – October 2, 2024 | October 2, 2024 | 48.7% | 47.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | Harris +1.4% |
| Average | 48.6% | 47.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 2.4% | Harris +1.6% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel[20] | September 20–25, 2024 | 1,775 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 48% | 51% | – | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[22] | September 19–25, 2024 | 993 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 44% | – | 0% | 4% | 2% |
| 924 (LV) | 51% | 45% | – | 0% | 3% | 1% | |||
| Fox News[24] | September 20−24, 2024 | 1,021 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 46% | – | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| 775 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 48% | – | 2% | 2% | 1% | ||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[25][C] | September 17–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | – | 1% | 0% | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[79] | September 16–19, 2024 | 1,086 (LV) | – | 47% | 47% | – | 0% | 1% | 5% |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[80] | September 11–19, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| MassINC Polling Group[31][G] | September 12−18, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 46% | − | 1% | 0% | 3% |
| Quinnipiac University[35] | September 12−16, 2024 | 1,331 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 51% | 45% | − | 1% | 0% | 3% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[81] | September 4–15, 2024 | 890 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 46% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[82] | September 6–9, 2024 | 801 (LV) | – | 45% | 45% | – | 0% | 1% | 9% |
| YouGov[83][U] | August 23 – September 3, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 45% | 0% | 1% | – | 8%[f] |
| Wick Insights[43][H] | August 27–29, 2024 | 1,607 (LV) | – | 47% | 48% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| CNN/SSRS[84] | August 23–29, 2024 | 789 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 47% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[85] | August 25–28, 2024 | 1,071 (LV) | – | 46% | 45% | – | 1% | 0% | 8% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[45] | August 23–26, 2024 | 803 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 46% | – | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 758 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 45% | – | 2% | 1% | 1% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[21] | September 19–25, 2024 | 474 (LV) | – | 49% | 47% | 1% | 3% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[86][V] | September 16–20, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 48% | 1% | 4% |
| Washington Post[34] | September 12−16, 2024 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 47% | 1% | 4%[m] |
| 1,003 (LV) | 48% | 47% | 1% | 4% |
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[36] | September 11−16, 2024 | 1,082 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 45% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| 1,082 (LV) | 49% | 45% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 4% | |||
| YouGov[47][J] | August 15–23, 2024 | 500 (A) | ± 5.1% | 43% | 41% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 11%[r] |
| – (LV) | ± 5.9% | 48% | 46% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | ||
| Spry Strategies (R)[50][L] | August 14–20, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | 4% | – | 1% | – | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[52][M] | August 13–17, 2024 | 1,312 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 45% | 5% | 0% | 1% | – | 3% |
| Focaldata[53] | August 6–16, 2024 | 719 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 47% | 4% | – | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| 719 (RV) | 49% | 46% | 4% | – | 0% | 0% | 1% | |||
| 719 (A) | 47% | 47% | 4% | – | 0% | 0% | 2% | |||
| Cygnal (R)[54] | August 14–15, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 44% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[87] | August 12–15, 2024 | 825 (LV) | – | 46% | 44% | 4% | – | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| Emerson College[55][B] | August 13–14, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 47% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| Quinnipiac University[56] | August 8–12, 2024 | 1,738 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 48% | 45% | 4% | – | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| The Bullfinch Group[57][N] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 41% | 6% | 2% | 0% | – | 6% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[88] | July 31 – August 11, 2024 | 920 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 46% | 43% | 6% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| New York Times/Siena College[89] | August 6–9, 2024 | 693 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 43% | 5% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 5% |
| 693 (LV) | 46% | 44% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3% | |||
| Navigator Research (D)[60] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 46% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[61] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 48% | 43% | 5% | 0% | 0% | – | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[90] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 743 (LV) | – | 44% | 46% | 3% | – | 0% | 0% | 7% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[67] | July 24–28, 2024 | 804 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 46% | 3% | – | 1% | 4% | 2% |
| The Bullfinch Group[68][R] | July 23–25, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 44% | 6% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[91] | July 22–24, 2024 | 851 (LV) | – | 42% | 46% | 5% | – | 0% | 0% | 7% |
| Fox News[69] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,034 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 43% | 7% | 1% | 1% | – | 3% |
| Emerson College[70] | July 22–23, 2024 | 850 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 46% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 5% |
| Joe Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[92][W] | July 17–18, 2024 | 624 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 43% | 45% | 4% | – | 2% | – | 6% |
| New York Times/Siena College[75] | July 9–11, 2024 | 872 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 40% | 42% | 7% | 0% | 3% | – | 8% |
| 872 (LV) | 42% | 43% | 6% | 0% | 2% | – | 7% | |||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z to A Research (D)[93][X] | August 23–26, 2024 | 613 (LV) | – | 46% | 46% | 5% | 3% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)[49][K] | August 19–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 43% | 43% | 3% | 11% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[62][O] | July 29 – August 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 45% | 45% | 4% | 6% |
| Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)[94] | July 22–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 43% | 3% | 7% |
| Joe Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | |||||||
| Civiqs[95][X] | July 13–16, 2024 | 536 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 44% | 46% | 5% | 5% |
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SoCal Strategies (R)[46][I] | August 23, 2024 | 713 (LV) | – | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| 800 (RV) | 41% | 46% | 13% | |||
| SoCal Strategies (R)[72][T] | July 20–21, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 50% | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[92][W] | July 17–18, 2024 | 624 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[73] | July 15–16, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| Emerson College[96][Y] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[74][P] | July 11–12, 2024 | 537 (RV) | – | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[97][Z] | July 5–12, 2024 | 1,041 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| New York Times/Siena College[75] | July 9–11, 2024 | 872 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| 872 (LV) | 45% | 48% | 7% | |||
| Echelon Insights[98][AA] | July 1–8, 2024 | 612 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 47% | 7% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[99] | July 1–5, 2024 | 794 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 51% | 5% |
| Emerson College[100][Y] | June 30 – July 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[101] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 673 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Cygnal (R)[102] | June 27–28, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| The Bullfinch Group[103][R] | June 14–19, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.46% | 45% | 44% | 12% |
| Emerson College[104] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| 49%[e] | 51% | – | ||||
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[105] | May 30–31, 2024 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| 923 (LV) | 45% | 47% | 8% | |||
| KAConsulting (R)[106][AB] | May 15–19, 2024 | 600 (RV) | – | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Prime Group[107][AC] | May 9–16, 2024 | 487 (RV) | – | 51% | 49% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[76] | May 7–13, 2024 | 812 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[108] | May 6–13, 2024 | 730 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[109] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 1,023 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| 1,023 (LV) | 45% | 48% | 7% | |||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[110][C] | April 24–30, 2024 | 1,398 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| Emerson College[111] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| 49%[e] | 51% | – | ||||
| CBS News/YouGov[112] | April 19–25, 2024 | 1,288 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| Muhlenberg College[113] | April 15–25, 2024 | 417 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 41% | 44% | 15% |
| John Zogby Strategies[114][AD] | April 13–21, 2024 | 628 (LV) | – | 50% | 45% | 5% |
| Kaplan Strategies[115] | April 20–21, 2024 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 46% | 13% |
| Fox News[116] | April 11–16, 2024 | 1,141 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[117] | April 8–15, 2024 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| The Bullfinch Group[118][N] | March 29 – April 3, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 44% | 18%[s] |
| Franklin & Marshall College[119] | March 20–31, 2024 | 870 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 38% | 14% |
| Big Data Poll (R)[120] | March 26–30, 2024 | 1,305 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 40% | 46% | 14%[t] |
| 42% | 44% | 14% | ||||
| 49%[e] | 51% | − | ||||
| Wall Street Journal[121] | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Echelon Insights[122][AE] | March 12–19, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| CNN/SSRS[123] | March 13–18, 2024 | 1,132 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Emerson College[124] | March 10–13, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| 48%[e] | 52% | – | ||||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[125] | March 8–12, 2024 | 807 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Fox News[126] | March 7–11, 2024 | 1,149 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research[127] | February 27 – March 7, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 50% | 45% | 5% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[128] | February 12–20, 2024 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 49% | 8% |
| Emerson College[77] | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Chism Strategies[129] | February 6–8, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 32% | 40% | 28% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[130] | January 22–25, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[131] | January 17–28, 2024 | 507 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Focaldata[132] | January 17–23, 2024 | 834 (A) | – | 38% | 46% | 16%[u] |
| – (LV) | 42% | 47% | 11%[v] | |||
| – (LV) | 49%[e] | 51% | – | |||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[133] | January 16–21, 2024 | 795 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research[134] | January 15–21, 2024 | 745 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 39% | 14% |
| Quinnipiac University[135] | January 4–8, 2024 | 1,680 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 49% | 46% | 5%[w] |
| The Bullfinch Group[136] | December 14–18, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Change Research/Future Majority (D)[137] | December 3–7, 2023 | (RVs) | – | 40% | 46% | 14% |
| Muhlenberg College[138] | November 20 – December 13, 2023 | 421 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 42% | 41% | 17% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[139] | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 799 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Big Data Poll (R)[140] | November 16–19, 2023 | 1,382 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 37% | 41% | 22%[x] |
| 1,284 (LV) | 39% | 41% | 20%[y] | |||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[141] | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Emerson College[142] | October 30 – November 4, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| 816 (LV) | – | 45% | 49% | 6% | ||
| New York Times/Siena College[78] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| (600 LV) | 44% | 49% | 7% | |||
| Franklin & Marshall College[143] | October 11–22, 2023 | 873 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[144] | October 5–10, 2023 | 807 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[145] | October 7–9, 2023 | 900 (LV) | – | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Emerson College[146] | October 1–4, 2023 | 430 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 36% | 45% | 19% |
| Quinnipiac University[147] | September 28 – October 2, 2023 | 1,725 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[148] | September 19–28, 2023 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 45% | 8%[z] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[149][AF] | September 25–26, 2023 | 673 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| National Public Affairs[150] | September 14–17, 2023 | 622 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[151] | August 9–20, 2023 | 723 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 42% | 40% | 18% |
| Prime Group[152][AC] | June 14–28, 2023 | 500 (RV) | – | 50% | 50% | – |
| 38% | 43% | 19%[aa] | ||||
| Quinnipiac University[153] | June 22–26, 2023 | 1,584 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[154][AG] | June 17–19, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[155][AG] | April 11–13, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[156] | March 27 – April 7, 2023 | 643 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 36% | 35% | 29% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research[157] | February 19–26, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| Targoz Market Research[158] | November 2–6, 2022 | 904 (RV) | – | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| 631 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 46% | 52% | 2% | ||
| Emerson College[159] | October 28–31, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Emerson College[160] | September 23–26, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Echelon Insights[161][AA] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 828 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Emerson College[162] | August 22–23, 2022 | 1,034 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 47% | 11% |
| PEM Management Corporation (R)[163][AH] | July 22–24, 2022 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Blueprint Polling (D)[164] | July 19–21, 2022 | 712 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 41% | 17% |
| Blueprint Polling (D)[165] | February 15–16, 2022 | 635 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 40% | 15% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[166][AI] | November 11–16, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 51% | 4% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[96][Y] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 46% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[97][Z] | July 5–12, 2024 | 1,041 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 46% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| YouGov[167][U] | July 4–12, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 43% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
| New York Times/Siena College[75] | July 9–11, 2024 | 872 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 38% | 41% | 8% | 0% | 2% | 11% |
| 872 (LV) | 40% | 42% | 7% | 0% | 2% | 9% | |||
| Echelon Insights[98][AA] | July 1–8, 2024 | 612 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 42% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 5%[ab] |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[99] | July 1–5, 2024 | 794 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 44% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
| Cygnal (R)[102] | June 27–28, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 42% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 7% |
| Emerson College[104] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | 5% | 0% | 1% | 12% |
| Marist College[168] | June 3–6, 2024 | 1,181 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 47% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3%[ac] |
| KAConsulting (R)[106][AB] | May 15–19, 2024 | 600 (RV) | – | 39% | 41% | 9% | 1% | 3% | 7%[ad] |
| Prime Group[107][AC] | May 9–16, 2024 | 487 (RV) | – | 45% | 42% | 9% | 2% | 2% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[76] | May 7–13, 2024 | 812 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[108] | May 6–13, 2024 | 730 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 40% | 43% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 6% |
| New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[109] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 1,023 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 36% | 40% | 10% | 0% | 1% | 13%[ae] |
| 1,023 (LV) | 37% | 41% | 9% | 0% | 1% | 12%[ae] | |||
| Emerson College[111] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 45% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Fox News[116] | April 11–16, 2024 | 1,141 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 44% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[117] | April 8–15, 2024 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 43% | 8% | 0% | 1% | 6% |
| Wall Street Journal[121] | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 41% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 10% |
| Emerson College[124] | March 10–13, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 44% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[125] | March 8–12, 2024 | 807 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 44% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 10% |
| Fox News[126] | March 7–11, 2024 | 1,149 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 42% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| Axis Research[169][AJ] | February 25–27, 2024 | 601 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 40% | 39% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 20% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[128] | February 12–20, 2024 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 45% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| Emerson College[77] | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 42% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[170] | January 16–21, 2024 | 795 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 43% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University[135] | January 4–8, 2023 | 1,680 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 41% | 39% | 11% | 2% | 4% | 3%[af] |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[171] | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 799 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 39% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
| Big Data Poll (R)[140] | November 16–19, 2023 | 1,382 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 35% | 40% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 14%[ag] |
| 1,284 (LV) | 37% | 41% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 11%[ah] |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[92][W] | July 17–18, 2024 | 624 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 46% | 4% | 2% | 6% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[172] | July 16–18, 2024 | 688 (LV) | – | 41% | 45% | 4% | 1% | 9%[ai] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[173] | July 8–10, 2024 | 719 (LV) | – | 40% | 45% | 6% | 1% | 8%[ai] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[174] | June 8–11, 2024 | 456 (LV) | – | 42% | 44% | 5% | 1% | 8%[ai] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[175] | May 2–4, 2024 | 635 (LV) | – | 41% | 43% | 7% | 0% | 9% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[119] | March 20–31, 2024 | 870 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 40% | 9% | 3% | 8% |
| Big Data Poll (R)[120] | March 26–30, 2024 | 1,305 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 40% | 44% | 8% | 2% | 6% |
| 42%[e] | 46% | 9% | 3% | − | ||||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[176] | March 14–17, 2024 | 775 (LV) | – | 41% | 44% | 7% | 1% | 7% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[131] | January 17–28, 2024 | 494 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 42% | 37% | 8% | 2% | 11% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs[95][X] | July 13–16, 2024 | 536 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 42% | 46% | 6% | 6% |
| 1983 Labs[177] | June 28–30, 2024 | 741 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 41% | 46% | 3% | 10%[ab] |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[105] | May 30–31, 2024 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 39% | 8% | 12% |
| 923 (LV) | 43% | 42% | 7% | 8% | |||
| Muhlenberg College[113] | April 15–25, 2024 | 417 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 35% | 35% | 18% | 12% |
| Big Data Poll (R)[120] | March 26–30, 2024 | 1,305 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 39% | 45% | 7% | 6%[aj] |
| 40%[e] | 45% | 8% | 7%[ak] | ||||
| The Bullfinch Group[178][R] | March 22–26, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 41% | 7% | 8% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[179] | December 28–30, 2023 | 1,069 (LV) | – | 39% | 40% | 9% | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[180] | November 27–29, 2023 | 887 (LV) | – | 37% | 44% | 7% | 10% |
| Big Data Poll (R)[140] | November 16–19, 2023 | 1,382 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 36% | 40% | 8% | 16%[al] |
| 1,284 (LV) | 38% | 41% | 8% | 13%[am] | |||
| New York Times/Siena College[181] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.6 | 35% | 35% | 23% | 7% |
| 600 (LV) | 36% | 36% | 21% | 7% | |||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[145] | October 7–9, 2023 | 900 (LV) | – | 39% | 39% | 9% | 13% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN/SSRS[123] | March 13–18, 2024 | 1,132 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 38% | 40% | 16% | 4% | 4% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[182] | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 41% | 8% | 1% | 12% |
Hypothetical polling with other candidates
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[114][AD] | April 13–21, 2024 | 628 (LV) | – | 47% | 42% | 11% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[114][AD] | April 13–21, 2024 | 628 (LV) | – | 40% | 41% | 19% |
Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[74][P] | July 11–12, 2024 | 537 (RV) | – | 42% | 51% | 7% |
| Emerson College[77] | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 33% | 48% | 19% |
Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Gretchen Whitmer Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News[69] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,034 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[74][P] | July 11–12, 2024 | 537 (RV) | – | 42% | 50% | 8% |
JB Pritzker vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
JB Pritzker Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[74][P] | July 11–12, 2024 | 537 (RV) | – | 37% | 50% | 13% |
Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Josh Shapiro Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News[69] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,034 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 44% | 2% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[74][P] | July 11–12, 2024 | 537 (RV) | – | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Muhlenberg College[138] | November 20 – December 13, 2023 | 421 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 48% | 37% | 15% |
Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Josh Shapiro Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[92][W] | July 17–18, 2024 | 624 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 43% | 3% | 1% | 6% |
Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Pete Buttigieg Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[74][P] | July 11–12, 2024 | 537 (RV) | – | 41% | 50% | 9% |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhlenberg College[138] | November 20 – December 13, 2023 | 421 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 33% | 38% | 29% |
| New York Times/Siena College[183] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 38% | 48% | 14% |
| 600 (LV) | 39% | 49% | 12% | |||
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[148] | September 19–28, 2023 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 44% | 45% | 11%[z] |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[180] | November 27–29, 2023 | 887 (LV) | – | 36% | 26% | 18% | 20%[an] |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Axis Research[169][AJ] | February 25–27, 2024 | 601 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 39% | 19% | 13% | 1% | 1% | 27% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhlenberg College[138] | November 20 – December 13, 2023 | 421 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 41% | 39% | 20% |
| New York Times/Siena College[183] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| 600 (LV) | 43% | 47% | 10% | |||
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[184] | May 2–8, 2023 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 39% | 12% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[154][AG] | June 17–19, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[155][AG] | April 11–13, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| Echelon Insights[161][AA] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 828 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[180] | November 27–29, 2023 | 887 (LV) | – | 37% | 34% | 13% | 12%[ao] |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[184] | May 2–8, 2023 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 38% | 20% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | |||||
| Republican | |||||
| Libertarian | |||||
| Green | |||||
| Write-in | |||||
| Total votes | |||||
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Pennsylvania
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ a b c d "Other" with 3%
- ^ a b "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ a b c d e "Other" with 1%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
- ^ "Would not vote" with 1%
- ^ "Neither/Other" with 4%
- ^ a b c d "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Another Party's Candidate" with 2%
- ^ "Another Party's Candidate" with 1%
- ^ a b c "Would not vote" with 1%
- ^ "Will not vote" with 6%
- ^ "Will not vote" with 1%
- ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 2%
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ "Will not vote" with 6%
- ^ Independent/Third party candidate with 12%
- ^ "Someone else / third party" with 8%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 10%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 7%
- ^ "Undecided" & "Wouldn't vote" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else / third party" with 11%; "Would not vote" with 3%
- ^ "Someone else / third party" with 11%; "Would not vote" with 1%
- ^ a b "Other" with 4%
- ^ No Labels candidate
- ^ a b Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
- ^ Chase Oliver (L) with >1%
- ^ Lars Mapstead with 1%
- ^ a b Lars Mapstead (L) with 0%
- ^ "Undecided" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Would not vote" with 3%
- ^ "Would not vote" with 1%
- ^ a b c Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
- ^ "Someone else / third party" with 4%
- ^ "Someone else / third party" with 7%
- ^ "Another third party candidate" with 6%; "Would not vote" with 2%
- ^ "Another third party candidate" with 6%; "Would not vote" with 1%
- ^ "Other (Third Party/Write-In)" with 3%; "Won't vote" with 2%; "Other (L)" & "Other (G)" with 1% each
- ^ "Other (Third Party/Write-In)", "Won't vote", & "Other (L)" with 1% each; "Other (G)" with 0%
Partisan clients
- ^ Poll conducted for the Sentinel Action Fund PAC
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by RealClearPennsylvania
- ^ a b c Poll commissioned by AARP
- ^ Poll sponsored by American Thinker
- ^ Poll sponsored by La Torre Live
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Spotlight PA
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by 2WAY
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
- ^ a b Poll conducted for the Cato Institute
- ^ a b Poll conducted for the Pinpoint Policy Institute
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by the American Principles Project
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for The Independent Center
- ^ a b Poll commissioned by Early Vote Action PAC
- ^ a b c d e f g h Poll conducted for Progress Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates
- ^ Poll conducted for Competitiveness Coalition
- ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Commonwealth Foundation
- ^ Poll sponsored by American Greatness
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
- ^ a b Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
- ^ Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republican candidates
- ^ a b c d Poll conducted for Clean and Prosperous America PAC
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Rust Belt Rising, which supports Democratic candidates
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute
- ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by NetChoice
- ^ a b Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
- ^ Poll commissioned by Save My Country Action Fund
- ^ a b c d Poll conducted for the Citizen Awareness Project
- ^ Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
- ^ Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Pennsylvania Energy Infrastructure Alliance
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- ^ "President Biden Leads Trump in Rematch in Keystone State" (PDF). Blueprint Polling. February 22, 2022. Archived from the original (PDF) on February 23, 2022.
- ^ Fabrizio, Tony; Lee, David; Tunis, Travis (November 21, 2021). "TRUMP "RUNNING THE TABLE" AGAINST BIDEN IN FIVE KEY BATTLEGROUND STATES; BIDEN INFRASTRUCTURE AND BBB PLANS FLOP WITH THESE VOTERS". Politico.
- ^ "The Times / SAY Poll: Pennsylvania" (PDF). YouGov. July 15, 2024.
- ^ "The 2024 Elections in Pennsylvania - Trump Edges Biden by 2 Percentage Points in Pennsylvania, Casey Bests McCormick for U.S. Senate". Marist Poll. June 12, 2024.
- ^ a b Zito, Salena (March 4, 2024). "New poll shows Pennsylvania voters overwhelmingly reject Biden LNG pause". The Washington Examiner.
- ^ "Swing States Tracking Poll #2401055 January 16-22, 2024" (PDF). Morning Consult. January 31, 2024.
- ^ "Morning Consult/Bloomberg 2024 Election Swing State Polling" (PDF). Morning Consult. December 14, 2023.
- ^ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (16-18 July 2024)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. July 21, 2024.
- ^ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (8-10 July 2024)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. July 15, 2024.
- ^ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (8-11 June 2024)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. June 17, 2024.
- ^ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (2-4 May 2024)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. May 13, 2024.
- ^ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (14-17 March 2024)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. March 25, 2024.
- ^ "New polling in 3 major battlegrounds show growing drumbeat for Biden replacement" (PDF). FiveThirtyEight. July 3, 2024.
- ^ "Common Ground in the Commonwealth Q1 2024 Survey" (PDF). Commonwealth Foundation. April 9, 2024.
- ^ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (28-30 December 2023)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. January 8, 2024.
- ^ a b c "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (27-29 November 2023)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. December 5, 2023.
- ^ Epstein, Reid J.; Igielnik, Ruth; Baker, Camille (November 7, 2023). "What's Behind Kennedy's Poll Numbers? Voters Dread a Trump-Biden Rematch". The New York Times – via NYTimes.com.
- ^ "Morning Consult/Bloomberg 2024 Election Survey All States Toplines" (PDF). Morning Consult. November 9, 2023.
- ^ a b "Likely Electorate Cross-Tabs: October 2023 Times/Siena Poll of the 2024 Battlegrounds". The New York Times. November 5, 2023 – via NYTimes.com.
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- ^ "PA Voter Services". Sure Portal Home Page. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
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