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Elections in South Dakota |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in South Dakota is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. South Dakota voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of South Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
Like its northern twin, South Dakota is a sparsely-populated state in the Great Plains, and a Republican stronghold at both the state and federal levels. It hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson carried it in 1964, against the backdrop of his nationwide landslide victory; not even in 1972, when favorite son George McGovern lost his state by 8.6% as he suffered a 49-state defeat to Richard Nixon. The last presidential Democrat to come within 5% of carrying South Dakota was Bill Clinton (who lost the state by just over 3 points in both of his victories) in 1996, and the last to come within 10% was Midwesterner Barack Obama (who lost the state by 8.4%) in 2008.
Republican Donald Trump has comfortably continued South Dakota's Republican streak, carrying the state by 29.7% in 2016 and again by 26.1% four years later. Running under the Republican banner a third consecutive time, Trump is widely expected to win South Dakota again in 2024.
The South Dakota Democratic was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Jersey, and New Mexico.
The South Dakota Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in Montana, New Jersey, and New Mexico. Under state law, no primary will be held if a candidate runs for a nomination unopposed.[2] As Donald Trump was the only Republican candidate to file for the presidential primary, no popular vote was held.[3]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Cook Political Report[4] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
Inside Elections[5] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[6] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[7] | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
CNalysis[8] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
CNN[9] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
The Economist[10] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
538[11] | Solid R | June 11, 2024 |
RCP[12] | Solid R | June 26, 2024 |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies[13][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 303 (LV) | – | 60% | 32% | 8% |
Emerson College[14] | January 23–28, 2024 | 1,777 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 55% | 26% | 18% |
Emerson College[15] | October 1–4, 2023 | 432 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 50% | 28% | 22% |
Emerson College[16][B] | October 19–21, 2022 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 53% | 33% | 14% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mason-Dixon[17][C] | May 10–13, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 50% | 31% | 11% | 8% |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies[13][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 303 (LV) | – | 51% | 38% | 11% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies[13][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 303 (LV) | – | 53% | 33% | 14% |
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Total votes |
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