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2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee
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| Elections in Tennessee |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Tennessee voters have chosen electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Tennessee has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[2]
A Southern state in the heart of the Bible Belt, no Democrat has won Tennessee's electoral votes since Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas, who shared the ticket with favorite son Al Gore, in 1996, nor has it been contested at the presidential level since 2000, when Gore narrowly lost his home state by less than 4 points.
Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden initially ran for re-election and became the party's presumptive nominee.[3] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[4] Biden's withdrawal from the race makes him the first eligible president not to stand for re-election since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968.
Former President and Republican nominee Donald Trump ran for re-election to a second non-consecutive term after losing in 2020.[5] Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gathered the required signatures to be on the ballot.[6] Despite that, he dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump.
Tennessee voted for Trump by a wide margin in the election, with him winning the state by 29.7%.[7] Trump received more than 1.96 million votes which was a record for votes cast for any candidate in the history of Tennessee. This is the best performance from a Republican candidate in the state since 1972.
Trump was able to increase his support in the Nashville metropolitan area, particularly in the suburban counties of Williamson, Rutherford, Wilson, Sumner, and Cheatham, performing similarly to his 2016 results. He gained ground in every county and even recaptured some support in Shelby and Davidson counties, home to Memphis and Nashville, as well as in Hamilton County (Chattanooga) and Knox County (Knoxville). Trump came close to flipping majority-Black Haywood County, losing it by just 25 votes. Notably, Haywood County voted Republican in the Senate and congressional race on the same ballot. This was the closest the county has come to voting Republican in a presidential race since 1988.
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The Tennessee Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. President Biden won the state in a landslide, earning all 63 pledged delegates
- 80–90%>90%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 122,803 | 92.14% | 63 | 63 | |
| Uncommitted | 10,475 | 7.86% | 0 | 0 | |
| Total: | 133,278 | 100.00% | 63 | 7 | 70 |
Republican primary
[edit]The Tennessee Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald J. Trump was challenged by Nikki Haley, the only other major candidate remaining in the Republican primaries. Trump won the state in a landslide, defeating Haley by 57.8 points and earning all 58 delegates.
- 60–70%70–80%80–90%>90%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 446,850 | 77.33% | 58 | 0 | 58 |
| Nikki Haley | 112,958 | 19.55% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 7,947 | 1.38% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uncommitted | 4,884 | 0.85% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 1,874 | 0.32% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 1,714 | 0.30% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 722 | 0.13% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 533 | 0.09% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Stuckenberg | 352 | 0.06% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 577,834 | 100.00% | 58 | 0 | 58 |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[12] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[13] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[15] | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[16] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[17] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[18] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[7] | Solid R | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[19] | Solid R | June 26, 2024 |
| NBC News[20] | Safe R | October 6, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote[21] | October 5−28, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 62% | 38% | – |
| ActiVote[22] | September 24 – October 16, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 62% | 38% | – |
| ActiVote[23] | July 26 – August 29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 63% | 37% | – |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research[24][A] | September 27 – October 8, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 54% | 35% | 5% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| 971 (LV) | 56% | 35% | 5% | – | 0% | 1% | 3% |
Donald J. Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[25][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 510 (LV) | – | 59% | 35% | 6% |
| Targoz Market Research[26][A] | March 15 – April 2, 2024 | 1,139 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 60% | 31% | 9% |
| 974 (LV) | 55% | 31% | 14% | |||
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[27] | February 29 – March 3, 2024 | 216 (RV) | – | 58% | 34% | 8%[b] |
| 201 (LV) | 59% | 34% | 7%[b] | |||
| Targoz Market Research[28][A] | December 14–28, 2023 | 1,139 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 61% | 30% | 9% |
| 929 (LV) | 63% | 31% | 5% | |||
| Siena College[29][C] | November 5–10, 2023 | 805 (A) | ± 3.8% | 49% | 20% | 31% |
| Targoz Market Research[30][A] | October 5–16, 2023 | 1,075 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 59% | 29% | 12% |
| 835 (LV) | 61% | 30% | 9% | |||
| Emerson College[31] | October 1–4, 2023 | 410 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| Targoz Market Research[32][A] | June 14–22, 2023 | 1,120 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 51% | 32% | 17% |
| 1,046 (LV) | 54% | 34% | 11% | |||
| SSRS/Vanderbilt University[33] | April 19–23, 2023 | 502 (RV) | – | 42% | 26% | 31% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research[34][A] | June 20 – July 1, 2024 | 1,152 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 55% | 28% | 7% | 10% |
| 962 (LV) | 58% | 28% | 5% | 9% | |||
| SSRS/Vanderbilt University[35] | April 26 – May 9, 2024 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 29% | 8% | 16%[c] |
| Targoz Market Research[26][A] | March 15 – April 2, 2024 | 1,139 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 25% | 16% | 11% |
| 974 (LV) | 47% | 28% | 15% | 10% | |||
| Targoz Market Research[28][A] | December 14–28, 2023 | 1,187 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 48% | 23% | 17% | 12% |
| 929 (LV) | 51% | 25% | 16% | 8% | |||
| SSRS/Vanderbilt University[36] | November 14 – December 2, 2023 | 1,005 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 26% | 12% | 17% |
| Targoz Market Research[30][A] | October 5–16, 2023 | 1,164 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 18% | 22% | 14% |
| 872 (LV) | 48% | 23% | 19% | 10% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Joe Manchin as an Independent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Joe Manchin Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research[30][A] | October 5–16, 2023 | 1,118 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 52% | 21% | 5% | 22% |
| 844 (LV) | 53% | 23% | 6% | 18% |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[25][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 510 (LV) | – | 52% | 35% | 13% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[25][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 510 (LV) | – | 55% | 31% | 14% |
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research[32][A] | June 14–22, 2023 | 1,120 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 32% | 22% |
| 977 (LV) | 52% | 36% | 11% | |||
| SSRS/Vanderbilt University[33] | April 19–23, 2023 | 502 (RV) | – | 33% | 24% | 40% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 1,964,499 | 64.09% | +3.43% | ||
| Democratic | 1,055,039 | 34.42% | −3.03% | ||
| Independent |
|
21,511 | 0.70% | N/A | |
| Green | 8,953 | 0.29% | +0.14% | ||
| Independent |
|
5,855 | 0.19% | N/A | |
| Socialism and Liberation | 3,451 | 0.11% | +0.03% | ||
| Socialist Workers |
|
985 | 0.03% | −0.05% | |
| Write-in | 4,692 | 0.15% | |||
| Total votes | 3,064,985 | 100.00% | |||
By Grand Division
[edit]
Trump: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%
Trump won all three of Tennessee's Grand Divisions—West, Middle, and East Tennessee. Middle and East Tennessee are solidly Republican, while West Tennessee, owing to its high Black population, was formerly loyal to the Democrats. It has become competitive for Republicans in recent elections. In 2020, Trump had won it with 49.43% to Biden's 49.06%. Democrats had previously won West Tennessee in 2004, 2008, and 2012.[38][39]
| Grand Division | Trump | Harris |
|---|---|---|
| West | ~53% | ~46% |
| Middle | ~63% | ~35% |
| East | ~71.% | ~28% |
*Will be more detailed once votes are certified
By congressional district
[edit]Trump won 8 of 9 congressional districts.
| District | Trump | Harris | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Diana Harshbarger | ||
| 2nd | Tim Burchett | ||
| 3rd | Chuck Fleischmann | ||
| 4th | Scott DesJarlais | ||
| 5th | Andy Ogles | ||
| 6th | John W. Rose | ||
| 7th | Mark E. Green | ||
| 8th | David Kustoff | ||
| 9th | Steve Cohen |
By county
[edit]| County | Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Anderson | |||||||||
| Bedford | |||||||||
| Benton | |||||||||
| Bledsoe | |||||||||
| Blount | |||||||||
| Bradley | |||||||||
| Campbell | |||||||||
| Cannon | |||||||||
| Carroll | |||||||||
| Carter | |||||||||
| Cheatham | |||||||||
| Chester | |||||||||
| Claiborne | |||||||||
| Clay | |||||||||
| Cocke | |||||||||
| Coffee | |||||||||
| Crockett | |||||||||
| Cumberland | |||||||||
| Davidson | |||||||||
| Decatur | |||||||||
| DeKalb | |||||||||
| Dickson | |||||||||
| Dyer | |||||||||
| Fayette | |||||||||
| Fentress | |||||||||
| Franklin | |||||||||
| Gibson | |||||||||
| Giles | |||||||||
| Grainger | |||||||||
| Greene | |||||||||
| Grundy | |||||||||
| Hamblen | |||||||||
| Hamilton | |||||||||
| Hancock | |||||||||
| Hardeman | |||||||||
| Hardin | |||||||||
| Hawkins | |||||||||
| Haywood | |||||||||
| Henderson | |||||||||
| Henry | |||||||||
| Hickman | |||||||||
| Houston | |||||||||
| Humphreys | |||||||||
| Jackson | |||||||||
| Jefferson | |||||||||
| Johnson | |||||||||
| Knox | |||||||||
| Lake | |||||||||
| Lauderdale | |||||||||
| Lawrence | |||||||||
| Lewis | |||||||||
| Lincoln | |||||||||
| Loudon | |||||||||
| Macon | |||||||||
| Madison | |||||||||
| Marion | |||||||||
| Marshall | |||||||||
| Maury | |||||||||
| McMinn | |||||||||
| McNairy | |||||||||
| Meigs | |||||||||
| Monroe | |||||||||
| Montgomery | |||||||||
| Moore | |||||||||
| Morgan | |||||||||
| Obion | |||||||||
| Overton | |||||||||
| Perry | |||||||||
| Pickett | |||||||||
| Polk | |||||||||
| Putnam | |||||||||
| Rhea | |||||||||
| Roane | |||||||||
| Robertson | |||||||||
| Rutherford | |||||||||
| Scott | |||||||||
| Sequatchie | |||||||||
| Sevier | |||||||||
| Shelby | |||||||||
| Smith | |||||||||
| Stewart | |||||||||
| Sullivan | |||||||||
| Sumner | |||||||||
| Tipton | |||||||||
| Trousdale | |||||||||
| Unicoi | |||||||||
| Union | |||||||||
| Van Buren | |||||||||
| Warren | |||||||||
| Washington | |||||||||
| Wayne | |||||||||
| Weakley | |||||||||
| White | |||||||||
| Williamson | |||||||||
| Wilson | |||||||||
| Totals | 1,964,499 | 64.09% | 1,055,039 | 34.42% | 45,447 | 1.49% | 909,460 | 29.67% | 3,064,985 |
Analysis
[edit]In Tennessee, Donald Trump achieved a decisive victory, winning by a margin of 909,460 votes, making it his third-largest state win in terms of vote count, following Texas and Florida. This election marks the third consecutive cycle in which a presidential candidate secured over 60% of the Tennessee votes. Notably, Trump improved his margins in every county and gained significant support across all demographics, performing better in suburban, rural, and urban areas.[40]
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Tennessee
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee
- 2024 Tennessee elections
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]Partisan clients
References
[edit]- ^ "2024 Tennessee Elections Ran Smoothly With Higher Early Voting, More Contested Races, & Approved Transit Vote in Nashville". Think Tennessee. November 8, 2024. Retrieved November 20, 2024.
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC. Archived from the original on April 25, 2023. Retrieved April 25, 2023.
- ^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 21, 2024.
- ^ Orr, Gabby (November 16, 2022). "Former President Donald Trump announces a White House bid for 2024". CNN.com. Retrieved October 8, 2023.
- ^ McCall, J. Holly. "Independent presidential candidate Robert Kennedy, Jr. submits Tennessee ballot petitions • Tennessee Lookout". Retrieved July 18, 2024.
- ^ a b Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "March 5, 2024 Democratic Presidential Preference Primary" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
- ^ "Tennessee Democratic Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
- ^ "March 5, 2024 Republican Presidential Preference Primary" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
- ^ "Tennessee Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
- ^ Allis, Victor (October 29, 2024). "Trump Stays Far ahead in Tennessee". ActiVote.
- ^ Allis, Victor (October 17, 2024). "Trump again far ahead in Tennessee". ActiVote.
- ^ Allis, Victor (August 30, 2024). "Trump far ahead in Tennessee". ActiVote. Retrieved August 31, 2024.
- ^ "Beacon Poll: October 2024 Results". Beacon Center of Tennessee. October 15, 2024.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ a b "Beacon Poll of Tennessee March 15 to April 2, 2024" (PDF). Beacon Center of Tennessee. April 3, 2024.
- ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Super Tuesday States" (PDF). FAU Polling. March 4, 2024.
- ^ a b "Beacon Poll of Tennessee Dec. 14 to 28, 2023" (PDF). Beacon Center of Tennessee. January 3, 2024.
- ^ Jones, Vivian (December 17, 2023). "Tennesseans back Trump but a nearly third of GOP says party on the wrong track, poll shows". The Tennessean. Archived from the original on September 28, 2024.
- ^ a b c "Beacon Poll of Tennessee Oct. 5 to 16, 2023" (PDF). Beacon Center of Tennessee. October 22, 2023.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (October 17, 2023). "Tennessee 2024 Poll: Republican Senator Blackburn Leads Democrat Gloria Johnson in Potential Matchup". Emerson Polling.
- ^ a b "Beacon Poll of Tennessee June 14 to 22, 2023" (PDF). Beacon Center of Tennessee. July 4, 2023.
- ^ a b "Vanderbilt University Tennessee Poll – Spring 2023" (PDF). Vanderbilt University. April 26, 2023.
- ^ "Beacon Poll of Tennessee June 20 to July 1, 2024" (PDF). Beacon Center of Tennessee. July 6, 2024.
- ^ Clinton, John G.; Geer, Joshua D. (May 22, 2024). "Spring 2024 - Vanderbilt Statewide Poll" (PDF). Vanderbilt University.
- ^ "Vanderbilt University Tennessee Poll – Fall 2023" (PDF). Vanderbilt University. December 8, 2023.
- ^ "Candidate Lists". Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Tennessee presidential election by Grand division". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved November 20, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential General Election Results | DDHQ". decisiondeskhq.com. Retrieved November 20, 2024.
- ^ "Tennessee Presidential Election Results". The New York Times. November 5, 2024. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 12, 2024.
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