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Elections in Texas |
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Government |
The 2024 United States presidential election in Texas is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Texas voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Texas has 40 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained two seats.[1]
The second most populous state, Texas is generally considered to be a red state, not having voted Democratic in a presidential election since Southerner Jimmy Carter won it in 1976 and with Republicans holding all statewide offices since 1999. Texas' location in the American South and largely in the greater Bible Belt has given the GOP the upper hand in the state in recent decades.[2][3] Texas is considered by some to be potentially competitive, as the state has not backed a Republican for President by double digits since it favored Mitt Romney in 2012, which can be largely credited to the fast-growing Texas Triangle trending leftwards in some recent elections, namely in the closely-contested 2018 U.S. Senate race and the 2020 U.S. presidential election which both saw the Metroplex county of Tarrant and the Greater Austin counties of Williamson and Hays flip blue for the first time in decades. However, in the 2020 elections, predominately-Latino South Texas shifted significantly rightward, a trend that the rest of the state followed in the 2022 midterms.[4][5]
Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden initially ran for re-election and became the party's presumptive nominee.[6] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[7] Biden's withdrawal from the race makes him the first eligible president not to stand for re-election since Texan native Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968. Former Republican President Donald Trump is running for re-election to a second non-consecutive term after his defeat in the 2020 election.[8]
The Texas Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Incumbent president Joe Biden won the state in a landslide, with minor opposition from various other candidates, particularly in the Lower Rio Grande Valley region. Biden lost Loving County, in which there was only one ballot cast for Frankie Lozada.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
Joe Biden (incumbent) | 831,247 | 84.6% | 244 | 244 | |
Marianne Williamson | 43,667 | 4.5% | |||
Armando Perez-Serrato | 27,473 | 2.8% | |||
Dean Phillips | 26,473 | 2.7% | |||
Gabriel Cornejo | 17,196 | 1.8% | |||
Cenk Uygur | 16,100 | 1.6% | |||
Frankie Lozada | 11,311 | 1.2% | |||
Star Locke | 8,602 | 0.9% | |||
Total: | 982,069 | 100% | 272 | 272 |
The Texas Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump easily won the state and all of its delegates against Nikki Haley, who remained his only major opposition. Trump received the endorsements of U.S. senators John Cornyn and Ted Cruz, as well as Texas governor Greg Abbott, in his primary campaign.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Donald Trump | 1,808,269 | 77.84% | 161 | 161 | |
Nikki Haley | 405,472 | 17.45% | |||
Uncommitted | 45,568 | 1.96% | |||
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 36,302 | 1.56% | |||
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 10,582 | 0.46% | |||
Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 8,938 | 0.38% | |||
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 2,964 | 0.13% | |||
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 2,585 | 0.11% | |||
David Stuckenberg | 2,339 | 0.10% | |||
Total: | 2,323,019 | 100.00% | 161 | 161 |
The Texas Secretary of State's office announced on August 8 that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would appear on the state ballot.[11] Kennedy later dropped out of the race nationally on August 23.[12][13]
The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Texas:[14]
In addition, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was on the ballot under the Texas Independent Party before he suspended his campaign.
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Cook Political Report[15] | Likely R | August 27, 2024 |
Inside Elections[16] | Likely R | August 29, 2024 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] | Likely R | August 20, 2024 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[18] | Likely R | August 30, 2024 |
CNN[19] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
The Economist[20] | Likely R | June 13, 2024 |
538[21] | Lean R | September 13, 2024 |
RCP[22] | Lean R | September 1, 2024 |
CNalysis[23] | Likely R | September 1, 2024 |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Undecided [a] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RealClearPolitics | January 11 – September 5, 2024 | September 16, 2024 | 50.3% | 43.0% | 6.7% | Trump +7.3% |
270ToWin | August 22 – September 13, 2024 | September 16, 2024 | 50.4% | 44.2% | 5.4% | Trump +6.2% |
RacetotheWH | through September 19, 2024 | September 19, 2024 | 50.7% | 45.1% | 4.2% | Trump +5.6% |
Silver Bulletin | through September 19, 2024 | September 19, 2024 | 51.1% | 44.9% | 4.0% | Trump +6.2% |
538 | through September 19, 2024 | September 19, 2024 | 50.4% | 44.2% | 5.4% | Trump +6.2% |
Average | 50.7% | 44.05% | 5.25% | Trump +6.65% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Morning Consult[24] | September 9−18, 2024 | 2,716 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
Morning Consult[24] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 2,940 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 52% | 43% | 5% |
Emerson College[25] | September 3–5, 2024 | 845 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
51%[c] | 48% | 1%[d] | ||||
YouGov[26][A] | August 23–31, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 44% | 7%[e] |
ActiVote[27] | August 14–31, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 54.5% | 45.5% | – |
Quantus Polls and News (R)[28] | August 29–30, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 42% | 9%[f] |
52% | 44% | 4%[g] | ||||
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
Public Policy Polling (D)[29][B] | August 21–22, 2024 | 725 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 44% | 6% |
Democratic National Convention | ||||||
ActiVote[30] | July 31 – August 13, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 53% | 47% | – |
Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. | ||||||
Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
Republican National Convention | ||||||
Attempted assassination of Donald Trump | ||||||
YouGov[31][C] | January 11–24, 2024 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 52% | 39% | 9% |
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[32] | May 8–17, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 39% | 15%[h] |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Texas Public Opinion Research/Lake Research Partners (D)[33] | August 24–29, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 43% | – | 2% | 2% | 2% |
YouGov[26][A] | August 23–31, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 44% | – | 2% | 0% | 5% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D)[34][B] | August 21–22, 2024 | 725 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 42% | 6% | 1% | 0% | – | 6% |
University of Houston[35] | August 5–16, 2024 | 1,365 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 50% | 45% | 2% | – | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ActiVote[36] | June 25 – July 18, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 54% | 46% | – |
Remington Research Group (R)[37] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 589 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
Manhattan Institute[38] | June 25–27, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 41% | 7% |
UT Tyler[39] | June 11–20, 2024 | 1,144 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
931 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 43% | 9% | ||
YouGov[40][A] | May 31 – June 9, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 39% | 15%[i] |
YouGov[41][A] | April 12–22, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 40% | 12%[j] |
John Zogby Strategies[42][k] | April 13–21, 2024 | 743 (LV) | – | 50% | 40% | 10% |
Cygnal (R)[43] | April 4–6, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
Marist College[44] | March 18–21, 2024 | 1,117 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 55% | 44% | 1% |
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[45] | February 29 – March 3, 2024 | 489 (RV) | – | 50% | 42% | 8% |
458 (LV) | 51% | 42% | 7% | |||
UT Tyler[46] | February 18–26, 2024 | 1,167 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
YouGov[47][A] | February 2–12, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 41% | 11%[l] |
YouGov[31][C] | January 11–24, 2024 | 1,145 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 49% | 40% | 11% |
Emerson College[48][D] | January 13–15, 2024 | 1,315 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
YouGov[49][A] | December 1–10, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 39% | 16% |
YouGov[50][A] | October 5–17, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 37% | 18% |
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[32] | May 8–17, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 42% | 14%[m] |
CWS Research (R)[51][E] | April 17–21, 2023 | 677 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
Emerson College[52] | October 17–19, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 40% | 13% |
Emerson College[53] | September 20–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 40% | 11% |
Echelon Insights[54] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 813 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
Blueprint Polling (D)[55] | June 8–10, 2022 | 603 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 38% | 17% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YouGov[56][F] | June 20 – July 1, 2024 | 1,484 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 49% | 40% | 5% | – | 2% | 4%[n] |
Manhattan Institute[38] | June 25–27, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 36% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 11%[o] |
UT Tyler[39] | June 11–20, 2024 | 1,144 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 38% | 12% | – | 1% | 3%[p] |
931 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 41% | 8% | – | 1% | 3%[p] | ||
YouGov[40][A] | May 31 – June 9, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 43% | 34% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 11% |
YouGov[41][A] | April 12–22, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 36% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 7% |
Texas Lyceum[57] | April 12–21, 2024 | 926 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 41% | 31% | 11% | 1% | 1% | 15%[q] |
Cygnal (R)[43] | April 4–6, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 37% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 6% |
UT Tyler[46] | February 18–26, 2024 | 1,167 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 41% | 37% | 13% | 6% | 3% | – |
YouGov[47][A] | February 2–12, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 36% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 8% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[58] | February 1–3, 2024 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 35% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
Emerson College[48][D] | January 13–15, 2024 | 1,315 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 46% | 36% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
YouGov[49][A] | December 1–10, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 34% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 12% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[59] | April 5–10, 2024 | 1,600 (LV) | ± 2.45% | 46% | 34% | 9% | 11%[r] |
Marist College[44] | March 18–21, 2024 | 1,117 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 36% | 15% | 1% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Jill Stein
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[59] | April 5–10, 2024 | 1,600 (LV) | ± 2.45% | 48% | 36% | 3% | 13%[s] |
YouGov[31][C] | January 11–24, 2024 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 49% | 40% | 3% | 8%[t] |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Manchin vs. Cornel West
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Manchin No Labels |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
National Public Affairs[60] | February 6–8, 2024 | 807 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 35% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 9% |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies[42][k] | April 13–21, 2024 | 743 (LV) | – | 45% | 40% | 15% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies[42][k] | April 13–21, 2024 | 743 (LV) | – | 53% | 35% | 12% |
Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UT Tyler[46] | February 18–26, 2024 | 1,167 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 42% | 36% | 22% |
YouGov[47][A] | February 2–12, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 31% | 40% | 29%[u] |
YouGov[31][C] | January 11–24, 2024 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 43% | 39% | 18% |
YouGov[49][A] | December 1–10, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 33% | 36% | 31% |
YouGov[50][A] | October 5–17, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 32% | 34% | 34% |
Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UT Tyler[46] | February 18–26, 2024 | 1,167 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 33% | 36% | 20% | 7% | 3% | 1% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[58] | February 1–3, 2024 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 30% | 32% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 24% |
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YouGov[49][A] | December 1–10, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 39% | 37% | 24% |
YouGov[50][A] | October 5–17, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 39% | 38% | 24% |
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[32] | May 8–17, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 42% | 14%[v] |
CWS Research (R)[51] | April 17–21, 2023 | 677 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 40% | 16% |
Echelon Insights[54] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 813 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
Ron DeSantis vs. Kamala Harris
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[32] | May 8–17, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 40% | 15%[w] |
Vivek Ramaswamy vs. Joe Biden
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Vivek Ramaswamy Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YouGov[49][A] | December 1–10, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 34% | 37% | 30% |
YouGov[50][A] | October 5–17, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 33% | 36% | 32% |
Mike Pence vs. Joe Biden
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Mike Pence Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YouGov[50][A] | October 5–17, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 29% | 36% | 36% |
Tim Scott vs. Joe Biden
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Tim Scott Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YouGov[50][A] | October 5–17, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 33% | 34% | 33% |
As large as the cities are and how Democratic that they are, Texas Democrats still don't have a way to get past that red wall of rural West Texas, [Drew Landry] said. Rural Texas still rules the day. I was seeing some very, very close numbers before a lot of the rural counties reported [election returns], and once they did, it just blew the door open for Abbott.
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