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2024 United States presidential election in Texas
From Wikipedia - Reading time: 24 min
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| Elections in Texas |
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 Government |
The 2024 United States presidential election in Texas was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Texas voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Texas had 40 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained two seats.[1]
One of the most populous, fast-growing, and diverse states in the U.S., Texas is generally considered to be a red state, not having voted Democratic in a presidential election since 1976 and with Republicans holding all statewide offices since 1999. Texas’s location in the American South and largely in the greater Bible Belt has given the Republican Party the upper hand in the state in recent decades.[2] Nonetheless, Texas was considered by some to be potentially in play, as the state had not backed a Republican for president by double digits since it favored Mitt Romney in 2012. This increased competitiveness was largely explained by the fast-growing Texas Triangle trending leftwards in some elections, namely in the closely-contested 2018 U.S. Senate race and the 2020 U.S. presidential election, which saw the Metroplex county of Tarrant and the Greater Austin counties of Williamson and Hays flip to the Democratic candidate for the first time in decades. However, in the 2020 state elections, predominantly Hispanic South Texas shifted significantly rightward, a trend that the rest of the state followed in the 2022 midterms.[3][4] In 2024, Trump went on to win Texas by a margin of over 1.5 million votes, the second-largest margin of victory for any presidential candidate in Texas history.[5] Trump won 242 out of the state's 254 counties, the most for a Republican since 1972.[citation needed]
Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden initially ran for re-election and became the party's presumptive nominee.[6] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[7] Biden's withdrawal from the race made him the first eligible president not to stand for re-election since Texan native Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968.
Former Republican President Donald Trump ran for re-election to a second non-consecutive term after his defeat in the 2020 election.[8] Having carried Texas by single-digit margins in the past two presidential elections (by a 9% margin in 2016 and by 5.6% in 2020), Trump once again carried The Lone Star State, but now with a decisive victory margin of nearly 14%. Trump significantly outperformed his polling averages in the state and became the first presidential candidate to win Texas by double digits since 2012, reverting the trend away from the Republicans that Texas had exhibited in the two previous presidential elections. According to exit polls, 55% of Latinos in the state voted for Trump.[9] Data also showed that Trump made large inroads with Asian-American voters in Texas, who awarded him 58% of their votes.[10] This marked the first time a Republican candidate won a majority of both Asian and Latino voters in Texas. Such rightward trends by these groups were replicated nationwide.
Trump became the first presidential candidate to receive over six million votes in Texas, setting a record for the most votes received by a candidate in any election in the state, as well as the largest vote total ever received by a Republican presidential candidate in any state in American history.
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The Texas Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Incumbent president Joe Biden won the state in a landslide, with minor opposition from various other candidates, particularly in the Lower Rio Grande Valley region. Biden lost Loving County, in which there was only one ballot cast for Frankie Lozada.
Biden
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- >90%
Lozada
- 100%
No votes
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 831,247 | 84.6% | 244 | 244 | |
| Marianne Williamson | 43,667 | 4.5% | |||
| Armando Perez-Serrato | 27,473 | 2.8% | |||
| Dean Phillips | 26,473 | 2.7% | |||
| Gabriel Cornejo | 17,196 | 1.8% | |||
| Cenk Uygur | 16,100 | 1.6% | |||
| Frankie Lozada | 11,311 | 1.2% | |||
| Star Locke | 8,602 | 0.9% | |||
| Total: | 982,069 | 100% | 272 | 272 | |
Republican primary
[edit]The Texas Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump easily won the state and all of its delegates against Nikki Haley, who remained his only major opposition. Trump received the endorsements of U.S. senators John Cornyn and Ted Cruz, as well as Texas governor Greg Abbott, in his primary campaign.
Trump
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- >90%
Haley
- 60–70%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 1,808,269 | 77.84% | 161 | 161 | |
| Nikki Haley | 405,472 | 17.45% | |||
| Uncommitted | 45,568 | 1.96% | |||
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 36,302 | 1.56% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 10,582 | 0.46% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 8,938 | 0.38% | |||
| Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 2,964 | 0.13% | |||
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 2,585 | 0.11% | |||
| David Stuckenberg | 2,339 | 0.10% | |||
| Total: | 2,323,019 | 100.00% | 161 | 161 | |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. independent bid
[edit]The Texas Secretary of State's office announced on August 8 that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would appear on the state ballot.[13] Kennedy later dropped out of the race nationally on August 23.[14][15]
General election
[edit]Candidates
[edit]The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Texas:[16]
- Kamala Harris, Democratic Party
- Donald Trump, Republican Party
- Chase Oliver, Libertarian Party
- Jill Stein, Green Party
- Claudia De la Cruz, Party for Socialism and Liberation (Write-in)
- Cornel West, Justice for All Party (Write-in)
- Peter Sonski, American Solidarity Party (Write-in)
- Shiva Ayyadurai, Independent (Write-in)
In addition, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was on the ballot under the Texas Independent Party before he suspended his campaign.
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[17] | Likely R | August 27, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[18] | Likely R | August 29, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Likely R | September 25, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[20] | Likely R | October 4, 2024 |
| CNN[21] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[22] | Likely R | June 13, 2024 |
| 538[23] | Likely R | October 5, 2024 |
| CNalysis[24] | Lean R | November 4, 2024 |
| NBC News[25] | Likely R | October 6, 2024 |
| YouGov[26] | Lean R | October 16, 2024 |
| Split Ticket[27] | Likely R | November 1, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270ToWin | October 18 – November 3, 2024 | November 3, 2024 | 44.4% | 51.8% | 3.8% | Trump +7.4% |
| 538 | through November 3, 2024 | November 3, 2024 | 43.8% | 51.7% | 4.5% | Trump +7.9% |
| Silver Bulletin | through November 3, 2024 | November 3, 2024 | 44.3% | 51.4% | 4.3% | Trump +7.1% |
| The Hill/DDHQ | through October 29, 2024 | November 3, 2024 | 44.2% | 51.8% | 4.0% | Trump +7.6% |
| Average | 44.2% | 51.7% | 4.1% | Trump +7.5% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel[28] | November 3–4, 2024 | 2,434 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 55% | 44% | 1% |
| Morning Consult[29] | October 22−31, 2024 | 2,120 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 52% | 45% | 3% |
| ActiVote[30] | October 21−27, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 55% | 45% | – |
| New York Times/Siena College[31] | October 23−26, 2024 | 1,180 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 52% | 41% | 7% |
| 1,180 (LV) | 52% | 42% | 6% | |||
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[32][A] | October 24–25, 2024 | 1,002 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 44% | 6%[c] |
| CES/YouGov[33] | October 1–25, 2024 | 6,526 (A) | – | 51% | 47% | 2% |
| 6,473 (LV) | 51% | 47% | 2% | |||
| Emerson College[34] | October 18−21, 2024 | 815 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 53% | 46% | 1%[d] |
| 53%[e] | 46% | 1%[d] | ||||
| Rose Institute/YouGov[35] | October 7–17, 2024 | 1,108 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 44% | 7%[f] |
| 1,108 (RV) | 50%[e] | 45% | 5% | |||
| 1,075 (LV) | 51% | 46% | 3% | |||
| ActiVote[36] | September 26 − October 16, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 56% | 44% | – |
| Morning Consult[29] | October 6−15, 2024 | 2,048 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
| Marist College[37] | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,365 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 52% | 46% | 2%[g] |
| 1,186 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 53% | 46% | 1% | ||
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[38] | October 2–6, 2024 | 811 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 45% | 5%[h] |
| 775 (LV) | 50% | 45% | 5%[h] | |||
| New York Times/Siena College[39] | September 29 – October 6, 2024 | 617 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 50% | 44% | 6% |
| RMG Research[40][B] | September 25–27, 2024 | 779 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 45% | 3%[i] |
| 53%[e] | 46% | 1% | ||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[41][C] | September 25–26, 2024 | 759 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 46% | 3% |
| Emerson College[42] | September 22−24, 2024 | 950 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 51% | 46% | 3%[d] |
| 52%[e] | 47% | 1%[d] | ||||
| ActiVote[43] | September 7−24, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 54% | 46% | – |
| Morning Consult[29] | September 9−18, 2024 | 2,716 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
| Morning Consult[29] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 2,940 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 52% | 43% | 5% |
| Emerson College[44] | September 3–5, 2024 | 845 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
| 51%[e] | 48% | 1%[j] | ||||
| YouGov[45][D] | August 23–31, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 44% | 7%[k] |
| ActiVote[46] | August 14–31, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 54.5% | 45.5% | – |
| Quantus Insights (R)[47] | August 29–30, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 42% | 9%[l] |
| 52% | 44% | 4%[m] | ||||
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[48][C] | August 21–22, 2024 | 725 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 44% | 6% |
| Democratic National Convention | ||||||
| ActiVote[49] | July 31 – August 13, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 53% | 47% | – |
| Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. | ||||||
| Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
| Republican National Convention | ||||||
| Attempted assassination of Donald Trump | ||||||
| YouGov[50][E] | January 11–24, 2024 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 52% | 39% | 9% |
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[51] | May 8–17, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 39% | 15%[n] |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel[28] | November 3–4, 2024 | 2,434 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 54% | 44% | − | 1% | 0% | 1% |
| Cygnal (R)[52] | October 26−28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 43% | − | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| New York Times/Siena College[31] | October 23−26, 2024 | 1,180 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 40% | − | 2% | 2% | 6% |
| 1,180 (LV) | 51% | 40% | − | 1% | 1% | 7% | |||
| UT Tyler[53] | October 14–21, 2024 | 1,129 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 45% | – | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 956 (LV) | 51% | 46% | – | 1% | 1% | 1% | |||
| YouGov[54][D] | October 2–10, 2024 | 1,091 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 46% | – | 2% | 1% | – |
| CWS Research (R)[55][F] | October 1–4, 2024 | 533 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 43% | – | 2% | 1% | 6% |
| University of Houston[56] | September 26 – October 10, 2024 | 1,329 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 51% | 46% | – | 1% | 0% | 2% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[41][C] | September 25–26, 2024 | 759 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 44% | 0% | 1% | – | 6% |
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[57] | September 13–18, 2024 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 44% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| CWS Research (R)[58][G] | September 4–9, 2024 | 504 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 41% | – | 0% | 2% | 6% |
| Texas Public Opinion Research/Lake Research Partners (D)[59] | August 24–29, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 43% | – | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| YouGov[45][D] | August 23–31, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 44% | – | 2% | 0% | 5% |
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College[39] | September 29 – October 6, 2024 | 617 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 49% | 42% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[60][C] | August 21–22, 2024 | 725 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 42% | 6% | 1% | 0% | – | 6% |
| University of Houston[61] | August 5–16, 2024 | 1,365 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 50% | 45% | 2% | – | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote[62] | June 25 – July 18, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 54% | 46% | – |
| Remington Research Group (R)[63] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 589 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
| Manhattan Institute[64] | June 25–27, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 41% | 7% |
| UT Tyler[65] | June 11–20, 2024 | 1,144 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
| 931 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 43% | 9% | ||
| YouGov[66][D] | May 31 – June 9, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 39% | 15%[o] |
| YouGov[67][D] | April 12–22, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 40% | 12%[p] |
| John Zogby Strategies[68][H] | April 13–21, 2024 | 743 (LV) | – | 50% | 40% | 10% |
| Cygnal (R)[69] | April 4–6, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| Marist College[70] | March 18–21, 2024 | 1,117 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 55% | 44% | 1% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[71] | February 29 – March 3, 2024 | 489 (RV) | – | 50% | 42% | 8% |
| 458 (LV) | 51% | 42% | 7% | |||
| UT Tyler[72] | February 18–26, 2024 | 1,167 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| YouGov[73][D] | February 2–12, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 41% | 11%[q] |
| YouGov[50][E] | January 11–24, 2024 | 1,145 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 49% | 40% | 11% |
| Emerson College[74][I] | January 13–15, 2024 | 1,315 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
| YouGov[75][D] | December 1–10, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 39% | 16% |
| YouGov[76][D] | October 5–17, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 37% | 18% |
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[51] | May 8–17, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 42% | 14%[r] |
| CWS Research (R)[77][J] | April 17–21, 2023 | 677 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Emerson College[78] | October 17–19, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 40% | 13% |
| Emerson College[79] | September 20–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 40% | 11% |
| Echelon Insights[80] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 813 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Blueprint Polling (D)[81] | June 8–10, 2022 | 603 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 38% | 17% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov[82][K] | June 20 – July 1, 2024 | 1,484 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 49% | 40% | 5% | – | 2% | 4%[s] |
| Manhattan Institute[64] | June 25–27, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 36% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 11%[t] |
| UT Tyler[65] | June 11–20, 2024 | 1,144 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 38% | 12% | – | 1% | 3%[u] |
| 931 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 41% | 8% | – | 1% | 3%[u] | ||
| YouGov[66][D] | May 31 – June 9, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 43% | 34% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 11% |
| YouGov[67][D] | April 12–22, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 36% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 7% |
| Texas Lyceum[83] | April 12–21, 2024 | 926 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 41% | 31% | 11% | 1% | 1% | 15%[v] |
| Cygnal (R)[69] | April 4–6, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 37% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 6% |
| UT Tyler[72] | February 18–26, 2024 | 1,167 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 41% | 37% | 13% | 6% | 3% | – |
| YouGov[73][D] | February 2–12, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 36% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 8% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[84] | February 1–3, 2024 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 35% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
| Emerson College[74][I] | January 13–15, 2024 | 1,315 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 46% | 36% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
| YouGov[75][D] | December 1–10, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 34% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 12% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[85] | April 5–10, 2024 | 1,600 (LV) | ± 2.45% | 46% | 34% | 9% | 11%[w] |
| Marist College[70] | March 18–21, 2024 | 1,117 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 36% | 15% | 1% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[85] | April 5–10, 2024 | 1,600 (LV) | ± 2.45% | 48% | 36% | 3% | 13%[x] |
| YouGov[50][E] | January 11–24, 2024 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 49% | 40% | 3% | 8%[y] |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Manchin vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Manchin No Labels |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Public Affairs[86] | February 6–8, 2024 | 807 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 35% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 9% |
Hypothetical polling with other candidates
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[68][H] | April 13–21, 2024 | 743 (LV) | – | 45% | 40% | 15% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[68][H] | April 13–21, 2024 | 743 (LV) | – | 53% | 35% | 12% |
Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT Tyler[72] | February 18–26, 2024 | 1,167 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 42% | 36% | 22% |
| YouGov[73][D] | February 2–12, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 31% | 40% | 29%[z] |
| YouGov[50][E] | January 11–24, 2024 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 43% | 39% | 18% |
| YouGov[75][D] | December 1–10, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 33% | 36% | 31% |
| YouGov[76][D] | October 5–17, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 32% | 34% | 34% |
Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT Tyler[72] | February 18–26, 2024 | 1,167 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 33% | 36% | 20% | 7% | 3% | 1% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[84] | February 1–3, 2024 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 30% | 32% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 24% |
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov[75][D] | December 1–10, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 39% | 37% | 24% |
| YouGov[76][D] | October 5–17, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 39% | 38% | 24% |
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[51] | May 8–17, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 42% | 14%[aa] |
| CWS Research (R)[77] | April 17–21, 2023 | 677 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 40% | 16% |
| Echelon Insights[80] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 813 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
Ron DeSantis vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[51] | May 8–17, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 40% | 15%[ab] |
Vivek Ramaswamy vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Vivek Ramaswamy Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov[75][D] | December 1–10, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 34% | 37% | 30% |
| YouGov[76][D] | October 5–17, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 33% | 36% | 32% |
Mike Pence vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Mike Pence Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov[76][D] | October 5–17, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 29% | 36% | 36% |
Tim Scott vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Tim Scott Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov[76][D] | October 5–17, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 33% | 34% | 33% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 6,375,376 | 56.26% | +4.20% | ||
| Democratic | 4,806,474 | 42.41% | −4.07% | ||
| Green | 82,300 | 0.73% | +0.43% | ||
| Libertarian | 68,264 | 0.60% | −0.52% | ||
| Write-in | |||||
| Total votes | 11,332,414 | ||||
By congressional district
[edit]By county
[edit]
| 2024 presidential election in Texas voter demographics[88] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic subgroup | Trump | Harris | % of total vote |
| Ideology | |||
| Liberals | 12 | 87 | 18 |
| Moderates | 37 | 62 | 38 |
| Conservatives | 92 | 8 | 44 |
| Party | |||
| Democrats | 4 | 95 | 26 |
| Republicans | 97 | 3 | 38 |
| Independents | 49 | 48 | 36 |
| Gender | |||
| Men | 63 | 35 | 48 |
| Women | 50 | 49 | 52 |
| Race/ethnicity | |||
| White | 66 | 33 | 55 |
| Black | 12 | 86 | 11 |
| Latino | 55 | 45 | 26 |
| Asian | 55 | 42 | 4 |
| Gender by race/ethnicity | |||
| White men | 70 | 27 | 25 |
| White women | 62 | 37 | 30 |
| Black men | 22 | 77 | 5 |
| Black women | 4 | 94 | 6 |
| Latino men | 65 | 35 | 14 |
| Latina women | 41 | 58 | 12 |
| All other races | 58 | 40 | 8 |
| White evangelical or born again Christian | |||
| Yes | 86 | 13 | 23 |
| No | 46 | 53 | 77 |
| Age | |||
| 18–29 years old | 48 | 50 | 14 |
| 30–44 years old | 55 | 44 | 24 |
| 45–64 years old | 58 | 41 | 37 |
| 65 and older | 59 | 40 | 26 |
| First time voter | |||
| Yes | 77 | 23 | 9 |
| No | 54 | 44 | 91 |
| Education | |||
| No college degree | 61 | 38 | 58 |
| College graduate | 49 | 49 | 42 |
| Education by race | |||
| White college graduates | 57 | 41 | 27 |
| White no college degree | 74 | 25 | 29 |
| Non-White college graduates | 37 | 62 | 16 |
| Non-White no college degree | 48 | 51 | 29 |
| Military service | |||
| Veterans | 65 | 34 | 18 |
| Non-veterans | 54 | 44 | 82 |
| Area type | |||
| Urban | 46 | 52 | 42 |
| Suburban | 62 | 37 | 49 |
| Rural | 72 | 25 | 9 |
| Biden job approval | |||
| Strongly disapprove | 98 | 1 | 52 |
| Somewhat disapprove | 35 | 60 | 12 |
| Somewhat approve | 4 | 95 | 21 |
| Strongly approve | 1 | 99 | 15 |
| Feeling about the way things are going in U.S. | |||
| Dissatisfied | 50 | 48 | 40 |
| Angry | 86 | 13 | 37 |
| Satisfied | 15 | 85 | 15 |
| Enthusiastic | n/a | n/a | 8 |
| Quality of candidate that mattered most | |||
| Has ability to lead | 70 | 29 | 29 |
| Can bring needed change | 69 | 29 | 29 |
| Has good judgment | 33 | 65 | 23 |
| Cares about people like me | 43 | 57 | 17 |
| Vote for president mainly | |||
| For your candidate | 59 | 40 | 79 |
| Against their opponent | 46 | 52 | 20 |
| Issue regarded as most important | |||
| Democracy | 23 | 75 | 31 |
| Economy | 87 | 12 | 35 |
| Abortion | 9 | 91 | 14 |
| Immigration | 91 | 9 | 14 |
| Foreign policy | n/a | n/a | 5 |
| Democracy threatened in the United States | |||
| Democracy in the U.S. very threatened | 60 | 38 | 41 |
| Democracy in the U.S. somewhat threatened | 59 | 40 | 32 |
| Democracy in the U.S. somewhat secure | 46 | 53 | 22 |
| Democracy in the U.S. very secure | n/a | n/a | 4 |
| Confident election being conducted fairly and accurately | |||
| Very confident | 30 | 68 | 34 |
| Somewhat confident | 68 | 31 | 47 |
| Not very confident | 56 | 40 | 14 |
| Not at all confident | n/a | n/a | 4 |
| Condition of the nation's economy | |||
| Not so good | 55 | 44 | 32 |
| Poor | 94 | 5 | 39 |
| Good | 6 | 93 | 25 |
| Excellent | n/a | n/a | 4 |
| Family's financial situation today | |||
| Worse than four years ago | 84 | 15 | 53 |
| About the same | 33 | 65 | 27 |
| Better than four years ago | 12 | 86 | 20 |
| Abortion should be | |||
| Legal in all cases | 10 | 89 | 23 |
| Legal in most cases | 43 | 54 | 35 |
| Illegal in most cases | 95 | 5 | 31 |
| Illegal in all cases | n/a | n/a | 8 |
| Most undocumented immigrants in the U.S. should be | |||
| Offered chance at legal status | 21 | 76 | 50 |
| Deported | 92 | 7 | 48 |
Analysis
[edit]Trump flipped 10 counties that voted for Biden in 2020, including multiple heavily Hispanic counties in the Rio Grande Valley and South Texas, including 97.7% Hispanic Starr County, becoming the first Republican to win it since Benjamin Harrison in 1892.[89] Trump also became the first Republican to win Maverick County since Herbert Hoover in 1928, the first Republican to win Webb County since William Howard Taft in 1912,[90] the first Republican to win Duval County since Theodore Roosevelt in 1904, the first Republican to win Hidalgo County and Willacy County since Richard Nixon in 1972, and the first Republican to win Cameron County and Culberson County since George W. Bush in 2004. [91] Trump also received the most raw votes for a political candidate ever in Texas, breaking his own record from 2020. Nevertheless, he became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Hays County since Richard Nixon in 1968.
Trump won the three largest metro areas in Texas, which include Dallas-Fort Worth (which Trump carried by a margin of about 7 percentage points), Greater Houston (which Trump also carried by about 7 percentage points), and Greater San Antonio (which Trump carried by about 5 percentage points). Trump also carried every other metro area in the state except for Greater Austin and El Paso (though he greatly improved on his 2020 margins in both of these).[92]
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Texas
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Texas elections
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Other" with 1%
- ^ a b c d "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ a b c d e With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ "Other" with 7%
- ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
- ^ a b "Another candidate" with 2%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
- ^ "Someone else"
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%
- ^ "Other candidate" with 3%
- ^ "Would not vote" with 4%
- ^ "Don't know" with 9%; "Libertarian candidate" with 4%"; "Green Party candidate" with 2%"
- ^ "Someone else" with 9%
- ^ "Someone else" with 6%
- ^ "Someone else" with 7%
- ^ "Don't know" with 8%; "Libertarian candidate" with 4%"; "Green Party candidate" with 2%"
- ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%; Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
- ^ a b Chase Oliver (L) with 3%
- ^ "Someone else" with 5%
- ^ Jill Stein (G) with 2%; Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
- ^ Undecided with 10%; Chase Oliver (L) with 3%
- ^ Libertarian candidate with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 21%
- ^ "Don't know" with 9%; "Libertarian candidate" with 3%"; "Green Party candidate" with 2%"
- ^ "Don't know" with 10%; "Libertarian candidate" with 3%"; "Green Party candidate" with 2%"
- ^ Poll sponsored by American Thinker
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
- ^ a b c d Poll commissioned by Clean and Prosperous America PAC
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u Poll sponsored by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas
- ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston
- ^ Poll sponsored by Texans for Fiscal Responsibility
- ^ Poll sponsored by Texas Gun Rights
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
- ^ Poll sponsored by Defend Texas Liberty PAC
- ^ Poll sponsored by the University of Houston and Texas Southern University
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