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Elections in West Virginia |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in West Virginia is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. West Virginia voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of West Virginia has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost one congressional seat.[1]
Despite being a Democratic stronghold for much of the 20th century, West Virginia — as a rural Southern state in the heart of Appalachia and largely within the Bible Belt — has trended dramatically towards the Republican Party in the 21st century. The last Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state was fellow Southerner Bill Clinton, who did so comfortably in both of his 1990s victories. A large factor in West Virginia's rightward trend is the Democratic Party's adoption of more liberal policies – especially environmentalist policies, anathema to the state's coal-dominated economy. Environmentalism was notably embraced by 2000 Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore, also a Southerner, who consequently lost the state by just under six points despite having been vice president under the popular Clinton.
Starting with the 2000 presidential election, West Virginia has seen a mass of counties flip to the GOP at this level, with Republicans consistently carrying the state's electoral votes by double digits since Southerner George W. Bush did so in 2004; and the last Democratic presidential nominee to win at least 40% of the West Virginian vote or carry any county in the state being Barack Obama in 2008. Furthermore, West Virginia was Republican Donald Trump's strongest state in 2016 and his second-strongest state (trading places with Wyoming) in 2020. Nowadays, West Virginia is a deeply red state with Republicans holding all statewide offices since 2021 apart from one U.S. Senate seat, which is expected to flip solidly Republican in a concurrent election.[2] Trump is expected to easily win the state again in 2024.
The West Virginia Democratic presidential primary was held on May 14, 2024, alongside the Maryland and Nebraska primaries. 25 delegates (20 pledged and 5 unpledged) to the Democratic National Convention were allocated to presidential candidates.[3]
Four candidates have been certified to appear on the primary ballot:[4]
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
Joe Biden (incumbent) | 68,164 | 70.5% | 20 | 20 | |
Jason Palmer | 11,079 | 11.5% | |||
Stephen Lyons (withdrawn) | 7,371 | 7.6% | |||
Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 7,222 | 7.5% | |||
Armando Perez-Serrato | 2,786 | 2.9% | |||
Total: | 96,622 | 100.0% | 20 | 5 | 25 |
The West Virginia Republican presidential primary was held on May 14, 2024, alongside the Maryland and Nebraska primaries. 31 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention were allocated on a winner-take-all basis.[6]
Five candidates have been certified to appear on the primary ballot:[4]
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Donald Trump | 199,497 | 88.4% | 32 | 32 | |
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 21,231 | 9.4% | |||
Rachel Swift | 2,326 | 1.0% | |||
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 1,481 | 0.7% | |||
David Stuckenberg | 1,168 | 0.5% | |||
Total: | 225,703 | 100.0% | 32 | 32 |
The Mountain primary (the state's Green Party affiliate) is scheduled to be held on May 14, 2024.
Only one candidate was certified to appear on the primary ballot,[4] who will receive all 4 of the state's pledged delegates:[8]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Cook Political Report[9] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
Inside Elections[10] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12] | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
CNalysis[13] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
CNN[14] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
The Economist[15] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
538[16] | Solid R | June 11, 2024 |
RCP[17] | Solid R | June 26, 2024 |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Research America[18][A] | August 21–27, 2024 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 61% | 34% | 5% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies[19][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 383 (LV) | – | 63% | 31% | 6% |
Emerson College[20] | October 1–4, 2023 | 539 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 59% | 23% | 18% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Jill Stein
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jill Stein Mountain |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kaplan Strategies[21] | June 4, 2024 | 464 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 55% | 28% | 2% | 15% |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies[19][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 383 (LV) | – | 58% | 30% | 12% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies[19][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 383 (LV) | – | 54% | 29% | 17% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
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Republican | |||||
Democratic | |||||
Libertarian | |||||
Mountain | |||||
Independent |
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Write-in | |||||
Total votes |
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