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2024 United States presidential election in Wyoming

From Wikipedia - Reading time: 13 min

For related races, see 2024 United States presidential election.
2024 United States presidential election in Wyoming
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Projected electoral vote 3 0
Popular vote 192,633 69,527
Percentage 71.60% 25.84%
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

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The 2024 United States presidential election in Wyoming took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Wyoming voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Wyoming has 3 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

A sparsely populated Mountain West state, Wyoming is considered to be a deeply red state, and Donald Trump was expected to easily win the state. Wyoming was Trump's second-strongest state in 2016 and strongest state in 2020 (trading places with West Virginia), voting for Trump by more than a 40% margin in both elections. Alongside neighboring Idaho and Utah, Wyoming has voted Republican in each presidential race starting in 1968 and all but one starting in 1952. Trump's performance in the state garnering 71.60% of the vote is the highest a presidential candidate has ever received in Wyoming, surpassing Ronald Reagan's 70.51% of the vote in the 1984 presidential election. Wyoming was nationally the most Republican-voting state in 2024, with Trump winning there by a margin of over 45%. This also marks the first time since 2012 that any candidate won over 70% of the vote in any state.

Primary elections

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Republican primary

[edit]

The Wyoming Republican primary was held from April 18 to 20, 2024,[2] as part of the Republican Party primaries. 23 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention were selected at county conventions, between February and March, while six delegates were selected at the state convention.[3] However, all 29 delegates were allocated to candidates at the state convention. As the only candidate in the presidential preference poll taken at the state convention, former president and presumptive nominee Donald Trump easily won all 29 delegates.[4]

Endorsements included those from John Barasso (senator; 2007–present),[5] Cynthia Lummis, (senator 2021–present),[5] Harriet Hageman, WY-AL (US representative, 2023–present),[6] and Timothy Mellon, chairman and majority owner of Pan Am Systems[7]

Wyoming Republican caucus, April 18–20, 2024[8]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 29 29
Total: 29 29

Democratic caucuses

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Wyoming Democratic presidential caucuses

The Wyoming Democratic caucuses was held on April 13, 2024, alongside the Alaska primary.

Wyoming Democratic caucus, April 13, 2024[9]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 380 96.0% 13 13
Uncommitted 13 3.3%
David Olscamp 2 0.5%
Marianne Williamson 1 0.3%
Jason Palmer 0 0.0%
Armando Perez-Serrato 0 0.0%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn) 0 0.0%
Stephen Lyons (withdrawn) 0 0.0%
Total: 396 100.0% 13 4 17

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[10] Solid R December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[11] Solid R April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] Safe R June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[13] Safe R December 14, 2023
CNalysis[14] Solid R December 30, 2023
CNN[15] Solid R January 14, 2024
The Economist[16] Safe R June 12, 2024
538[17] Solid R June 11, 2024
RCP[18] Solid R June 26, 2024
NBC News[19] Safe R October 6, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Cygnal (R)[20] October 26–28, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 69% 27% 4%[b]
University of Wyoming[21] September 24 – October 27, 2024 662 (LV) ± 3.6% 63% 28% 9%[c]
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[22][A] April 13–21, 2024 249 (LV) – 67% 26% 7%
Emerson College[23] October 1–4, 2023 478 (RV) ±4.5% 68% 15% 18%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[22][A] April 13–21, 2024 249 (LV) – 53% 36% 11%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[22][A] April 13–21, 2024 249 (LV) – 67% 20% 13%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Wyoming[24]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican
192,633 71.60% +1.64%
Democratic
69,527 25.84% −0.71%
Libertarian
4,193 1.56% −0.49%
Write-in 2,695 1.00% +0.37%
Total votes 269,048 100.00%
Republican win

By county

[edit]
County Donald Trump
Republican 		Kamala Harris
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Albany 8,930 49.95% 8,371 46.83% 576 3.22% 559 3.12% 17,877
Big Horn 4,867 84.86% 742 12.94% 126 2.20% 4,125 71.92% 5,735
Campbell 16,006 87.26% 2,004 10.93% 332 1.81% 14,002 76.33% 18,342
Carbon 4,952 77.53% 1,274 19.95% 161 2.52% 3,678 57.58% 6,387
Converse 5,756 85.41% 845 12.54% 138 2.05% 4,911 72.87% 6,739
Crook 3,805 87.59% 443 10.20% 96 2.21% 3,362 77.39% 4,344
Fremont 11,552 66.94% 5,179 30.01% 525 3.05% 6,373 36.93% 17,256
Goshen 4,893 79.25% 1,156 18.72% 125 2.03% 3,737 60.53% 6,174
Hot Springs 2,082 79.47% 488 18.63% 50 1.90% 1,594 60.84% 2,620
Johnson 3,936 80.36% 847 17.29% 115 2.35% 3,089 63.07% 4,898
Laramie 28,063 64.72% 14,153 32.64% 1,146 2.64% 13,910 32.08% 43,362
Lincoln 8,957 82.63% 1,623 14.97% 260 2.40% 7,334 67.66% 10,840
Natrona 24,671 72.73% 8,337 24.58% 913 2.69% 16,334 48.15% 33,921
Niobrara 1,108 89.79% 112 9.08% 14 1.13% 996 80.71% 1,234
Park 13,084 78.15% 3,259 19.46% 400 2.39% 9,825 58.69% 16,743
Platte 3,874 81.30% 780 16.37% 111 2.33% 3,094 64.93% 4,765
Sheridan 12,041 73.31% 3,920 23.87% 464 2.82% 8,121 49.44% 16,425
Sublette 3,905 79.31% 920 18.68% 99 2.01% 2,985 60.63% 4,924
Sweetwater 12,541 75.10% 3,731 22.34% 426 2.56% 8,810 52.76% 16,698
Teton 4,134 31.12% 8,748 65.84% 404 3.04% -4,614 -34.72% 13,286
Uinta 7,282 80.12% 1,561 17.17% 246 2.71% 5,721 62.95% 9,089
Washakie 3,125 80.60% 656 16.92% 96 2.48% 2,469 63.68% 3,877
Weston 3,069 87.39% 378 10.76% 65 1.85% 2,691 76.63% 3,512
Total 192,633 71.60% 69,527 25.84% 6,888 2.56% 123,106 45.76% 269,048
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]

See also

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Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c d Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Oliver (L) with 2%
  3. ^ "Other candidate" with 5%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
  2. ^ "Wyoming Republican Presidential Nominating Process". The Green Papers. January 19, 2023. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
  3. ^ "Wyoming starts selecting presidential delegates Saturday. But there's not a statewide election". Associated Press. February 24, 2024. Retrieved April 22, 2024.
  4. ^ "Trump picks up more national delegates as the only choice for Wyoming Republicans". AP News. April 20, 2024. Retrieved April 22, 2024.
  5. ^ a b Bycoffe, Aaron; Mejía, Elena; Radcliffe, Mary; Burton, Cooper; Groskopf, Christopher; Newman, Alex; Mangan, Andrew; Sweedler, Maya (April 24, 2023). "Which 2024 Republican Presidential Candidate Has The Most Endorsements?". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved April 25, 2023.
  6. ^ Shimizu Harris, Maya (November 18, 2022). "Support for Trump presidential bid tepid among Wyoming's Washington delegation". Casper Star Tribune. Retrieved March 16, 2023.
  7. ^ Schwartz, Brian (December 11, 2022). "Meet the megadonors backing the Trump super PAC as some top donors opt out of supporting 2024 candidacy". CNBC. Retrieved March 16, 2023.
  8. ^ "Wyoming GOP presidential election results". Politico. Retrieved April 26, 2024.
  9. ^ "Wyoming Presidential Caucus". The AP. Retrieved April 18, 2024.
  10. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  12. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  13. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  14. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  15. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  16. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  17. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  18. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  19. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  20. ^ "Wyoming Poll: Trump, Barrasso Dominate". The Cheyenne Post. November 1, 2024. Retrieved November 2, 2024.
  21. ^ "Wyoming Election Year Survey, 2024". University of Wyoming. November 1, 2024.
  22. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  23. ^ Mumford, Camille (October 17, 2023). "Wyoming 2024 Poll: President Biden with 13% Approval among Wyoming Residents". Emerson Polling.
  24. ^ Wyoming Secretary of State. "2024 General Election Statewide Candidates Summary" (PDF). Retrieved November 14, 2024.
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