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2026 United States Senate election in Texas
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The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Texas. Incumbent four-term Republican Senator John Cornyn, who was re-elected in 2020 is eligible to run for re-election to a fifth term in office. Cornyn is facing a primary challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Republicans have won every U.S. Senate election in Texas since 1990. An incumbent Senator running has not lost a primary since 2017 in Alabama, and in Texas since 1970.
Republican primary
[edit]Background
[edit]Incumbent Senator John Cornyn is seeking a fifth term but is facing a competitive challenge from state Attorney General Ken Paxton. Both of them have clashed for years with Paxton criticizing Cornyn for being insufficiently conservative, particularly over his support for U.S. aid to Ukraine, DREAM Act for DACA beneficiaries and a bipartisan gun safety bill. Cornyn, in turn, has highlighted Paxton’s legal troubles and his 2023 impeachment, in which Paxton was impeached by the Republican-controlled House before the Senate later acquitted him of all charges. The race has been viewed as a key battle between the Texas Republican Party’s establishment wing and its hardline conservative faction.[1] President Trump has yet to endorse either of the candidates though he says that both Paxton and Cornyn are good friends of his.[2] Trump’s endorsement is considered to be the critical in deciding the winner of the primary.[3]
Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- John Cornyn, incumbent U.S. Senator (2002–present)[4]
- Rennie Mann, president of the Richland Springs school board[5]
- Ken Paxton, Texas Attorney General (2015–present)[6]
Publicly expressed interest
[edit]- Wesley Hunt, U.S. representative from Texas's 38th congressional district (2023–present)[7]
Potential
[edit]- Ronny Jackson, U.S. representative from Texas's 13th congressional district (2021–present)[8]
Endorsements
[edit]John Cornyn
- U.S. senators
- John Thune, U.S. senator from South Dakota (2005–present), Senate Majority Leader (2025–present)[9]
- Tim Scott, U.S. senator from South Carolina (2013–present)[10]
- Rick Scott, U.S. senator from Florida (2019–present)[11]
- Bill Hagerty, U.S. senator from Tennessee (2021–present)[11]
- Organizations
Ken Paxton
- U.S. representatives
- Lance Gooden, U.S. representative from Texas's 5th congressional district (2019–present)[12]
- Troy Nehls, U.S. representative from Texas's 22nd congressional district (2021–present)[12]
- State legislators
- Matt Rinaldi, former state representative from the 115th district (2015–2019) and former chairman of the Texas Republican party (2021–2024)[14]
- Individuals
Declined to endorse
- U.S. Presidents
- Donald Trump, 45th and 47th President of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)[15]
- U.S. senators
- Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas (2013–present)[11]
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2025 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| John Cornyn (R) | $7,243,032 | $2,289,037 | $5,587,455 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[16] | |||
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn |
Ken Paxton |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Parscale (R)[17] | Mid–April, 2025 | 605 (V) | – | 33% | 50% | 17% |
| Lake Research Partners (D)/ Slingshot Strategies (D)[18][A] |
March 7–10, 2025 | – (RV) | – | 27% | 38% | 35%[b] |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[19] | January 28 – February 2, 2025 | – (V) | – | 28% | 53% | 19% |
| Victory Insights (R)[20] | January 4–6, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 42% | 25% |
| CWS Research (R)[21][B] | July 9–10, 2022 | 1,918 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 31% | 51% | 18% |
Hypothetical polling
- John Cornyn vs. "Someone Else"
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn |
Someone Else |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victory Insights (R)[20] | January 4–6, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 40% | 25% |
- John Cornyn vs. Ronny Jackson vs. Chip Roy
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn |
Ronny Jackson |
Chip Roy |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS Research (R)[22][B] | October 19–23, 2022 | 823 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 35% | 14% | 18% | 33% |
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Mike Swanson, former union flight attendant, currently working in the restaurant industry.[23]
Announcement pending
[edit]- Terry W. Virts, retired astronaut and retired U.S. Air Force colonel[24]
Publicly expressed interest
[edit]- Colin Allred, former U.S. representative from Texas's 32nd congressional district (2019–2025) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2024 (decision expected summer 2025)[25][26]
- Beto O'Rourke, former U.S. representative from Texas's 16th congressional district (2013-2019), nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018, candidate for president of the United States in 2020, and nominee for Governor of Texas in 2022[27]
Potential
[edit]- Roland Gutierrez, state senator from the 19th district (2021–present) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2024[28]
- Nathan Johnson, state senator from the 16th district (2019–present)[29][17]
- Ron Nirenberg, mayor of San Antonio (2017–present)[30]
- James Talarico, state representative (2019–present)[28]
- Joaquin Castro, U.S. representative from Texas's 20th congressional district (2013–present)[17]
Declined
[edit]- Veronica Escobar, U.S. representative from Texas's 16th congressional district (2019–present) (running for re-election)[31]
- Clay Jenkins, Dallas County Judge[c] (2011–present)[32]
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections[33] | Solid R | February 20, 2025 |
| The Cook Political Report[34] | Solid R | February 13, 2025 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[35] | Likely R | March 12, 2025 |
| Race To The WH[36] | Lean R | April 27, 2025 |
Polling
[edit]Hypothetical polling
Ken Paxton vs. Colin Allred
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ken Paxton (R) |
Colin Allred (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Parscale (R)[17] | Mid–April, 2025 | >1,000 (LV) | – | 37% | 52% | 11% |
Notes
[edit]Partisan clients
References
[edit]- ^ Gans, Jared (February 9, 2025). "7 competitive primaries to watch in 2026". The Hill. Archived from the original on February 10, 2025. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
- ^ "Trump weighs in on Texas Senate race". wfaa.com. April 13, 2025. Retrieved April 14, 2025.
- ^ "There's a 'Nasty' Senate Primary Battle Brewing in Texas". NOTUS. April 25, 2025. Retrieved April 25, 2025.
- ^ Jeffers, Gromer Jr. (May 24, 2024). "U.S. Sen. John Cornyn commits to seeking reelection in 2026". The Dallas Morning News. Retrieved May 24, 2024.
- ^ Lewis, Jason; Fikes, Barry (October 16, 2024). "A Night with Rennie Mann: From Community Stories to U.S. Senate Candidacy". Coyote Nation (Podcast). Retrieved December 5, 2024 – via Podbean.
- ^ Scherer, Jasper (April 8, 2025). "Texas AG Ken Paxton officially joins U.S. Senate race challenging John Cornyn". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved April 8, 2025.
- ^ Booker, Brakkton (March 3, 2025). "Black Republicans could stamp their mark on the midterms". Politico. Retrieved March 3, 2025.
[Wesley Hunt] added himself to this list, pointing to the reported headwinds his state's senior Sen. John Cornyn faces next year — and the possibility of him opting to retire. Hunt did not rule out a Senate run under the right circumstances
- ^ Solender, Andrew (November 27, 2024). "Scoop: A huge wave of House members is eyeing runs for other offices in 2026". Axios. Retrieved November 27, 2024.
- ^ "Thune endorses Cornyn ahead of what could be a thorny primary". Politico. March 26, 2025. Retrieved April 10, 2025.
- ^ a b Nitzberg, Alex (April 10, 2025). "John Cornyn scores Tim Scott endorsement, but John Rich calls Cornyn 'the Lindsey Graham of Texas'". Fox News. Retrieved April 10, 2025 – via AOL.
- ^ a b c d Sivak, David; Green, Lauren (April 9, 2025). "Cruz won't back Senate colleague Cornyn in preview of Texas primary divisions". Washington Examiner. Retrieved April 10, 2025.
- ^ a b c Friedman, Amanda (April 10, 2025). "Two Texas Republicans throw support behind Paxton in brewing Senate fight". Politico. Retrieved April 10, 2025.
- ^ "- AIPAC Political Portal". candidates.aipacpac.org. Retrieved April 28, 2025.
- ^ "Former Texas Republican Party Chair supports Texas AG Paxton in GOP primary". CBS News. April 11, 2025. Retrieved April 22, 2025.
- ^ [1]
- ^ "2026 Election United States Senate - Texas". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved April 23, 2025.
- ^ a b c d Wallace, Jeremy (April 30, 2025). "John Cornyn trailing Senate primary challenger Ken Paxton, says new internal polls". Houston Chronical. Retrieved May 1, 2025.
- ^ "Lake Research Partners & Slingshot Strategies – Texas Topline" (PDF). DocumentCloud. March 27, 2025. Retrieved April 8, 2025.
- ^ Bickerton, James (April 9, 2025). "Ken Paxton's Chances of Beating John Cornyn in Texas: Polls". Newsweek. Retrieved April 22, 2025.
- ^ a b Galbraith, Ben (January 8, 2025). "Texas Poll: Ken Paxton Leads John Cornyn for US Senate in 2026" (PDF). Victory Insights. Retrieved April 8, 2025.
- ^ "Defend Texas Liberty PAC 2022 Republican Primary & Runoff Voters July Issue Poll". Google Drive. July 12, 2022. Retrieved April 8, 2025.
- ^ "Defend Texas Liberty PAC 2022 Republican Primary & Runoff Voters October Issue Poll" (PDF). Texas Scorecard. October 25, 2022. Retrieved April 8, 2025.
- ^ "Michael Swanson for Senate". Michael Swanson for Senate. Retrieved April 26, 2025.
- ^ "Exclusive: Dem astronaut explores Texas Senate launch - GZERO Media". www.gzeromedia.com. Retrieved April 24, 2025.
...astronaut and political neophyte Terry Virts is planning to launch a run for the US Senate in Texas, GZERO Media has learned.
- ^ Jeffers, Gromer Jr. (March 26, 2025). "Colin Allred 'seriously considering' 2026 Senate bid for John Cornyn's seat". The Dallas Morning News. Retrieved March 26, 2025.
- ^ Dovere, Edward-Isaac (April 20, 2025). "Democrats' crises begin to play out in early Senate recruitment and first campaigns | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved April 20, 2025.
Former Rep. Colin Allred, the Democratic nominee last year, has been having conversations and attending events around the state as he seriously considers launching another campaign, and he expects to make a final decision by the summer. 'I don't care anymore about the DC game of proving to people that we can do this, or we can't do that,' Allred told CNN. 'This is a time of crisis — and that's where I think it's been where people are feeling that we need to do something.'
- ^ Kennedy, Bud (April 27, 2025). "Beto O'Rourke says 'if' Texans want him to run for U.S. Senate, 'yes I will'". Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Retrieved April 27, 2025.
- ^ a b Fink, Jack (March 30, 2025). "Senator Cornyn kicks off re-election campaign early as Ken Paxton weighs primary challenge". CBS News. Retrieved March 31, 2025.
- ^ "Democratic consultant says party will field strong candidates in 2026, names several". wfaa.com. April 20, 2025. Retrieved April 20, 2025.
- ^ Perano, Ursula; Diaz, Daniella (April 23, 2025). "Do Democrats Even Believe They Can Win Senate Seats in Florida and Texas?". NOTUS. Retrieved April 23, 2025.
- ^ Solender, Andrew (April 10, 2025). "A growing wave of House members is grasping for higher office". Axios. Retrieved April 10, 2025.
- ^ Jeffers, Gromer Jr. (April 7, 2025). "Texas Democrats are searching for 2026 candidates as they resist President Donald Trump". The Dallas Morning News. Retrieved April 7, 2025.
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 14, 2025.
- ^ "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
- ^ "2026 Senate ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
- ^ "2026 Senate Forecast". Race to the WH. Retrieved March 19, 2025.
External links
[edit]Official campaign websites
[edit]Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 | Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas1 | Status: cached on May 01 2025 12:01:42↧ Download as ZWI file
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