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2027 New South Wales state election

From Wikipedia - Reading time: 11 min

2027 New South Wales state election
← 2023 No earlier than 30 January 2027 and no later than 27 March 2027 2031 →
All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly
and 21 (of the 42) seats in the Legislative Council
47 Assembly seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Fundraising function for Mr Edmond Atalla MP, State Member for Member for Mount Druitt, with then NSW Opposition Leader, Mr Chris Minns MP (cropped).jpg
150225 MDCC Election Forum Mark Speakman (cropped) b.jpg
Leader Chris Minns Mark Speakman None
Party Labor Liberal/National Coalition Greens
Leader since 4 June 2021 21 April 2023 N/A
Leader's seat Kogarah Cronulla N/A
Last election 45 seats, 36.97% 36 seats, 35.37% 3 seats, 9.70%
Current seats 45 35 3
Seats needed Increase 2 Increase 12 Increase 44
Incumbent Premier

Chris Minns
Labor



The next New South Wales state election will be held no earlier than 30 January 2027 and no later than 27 March 2027,[1] to elect the 59th Parliament of New South Wales, including all 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 of the 42 seats in the Legislative Council. The election will be conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).

The incumbent Labor minority government, led by Premier Chris Minns, will seek to win a second four-year term in office. They will be challenged by the Liberal/National coalition, led by Mark Speakman. The Greens, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, other minor parties and several independents will also contest the election.

New South Wales has compulsory voting, with optional preferential, instant runoff voting in single-member seats for the lower house, and single transferable voting with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house.

Background

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At the previous state election held in 2023, the Australian Labor Party (ALP), led by Chris Minns, won the election after spending 12 years in Opposition. The election saw Labor win 45 seats to the Coalition's 36 seats on election day, allowing Labor to form an initial minority government. The Greens retained their three seats, while the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers lost all three of their seats as a result of their MPs resigning from the party to become independents.

In the Legislative Council (the Upper House), 21 of the 42 seats were up for election. Both the Coalition and Labor won 15 seats each, however after the election of Ben Franklin as President of the Legislative Council, the Coalition's effective vote on the floor on the council was reduced to 14.[2] The Greens won 4 seats in the Legislative Council. One Nation won 3 seats, which is its largest representation in New South Wales and currently its largest in any Australian parliament (including the federal Parliament). Meanwhile, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party retained its two seats, the Animal Justice Party lost one of its two seats and two parties (the Legalise Cannabis Party and the Liberal Democrats) won their first ever seats in the New South Wales Parliament.

Since the 2023 state election, there have been four by-elections: in Northern Tablelands, Pittwater, Epping and Hornsby.

Date

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The parliament has fixed four-year terms with the election held on the fourth Saturday in March,[3] though the Governor may dissolve the house sooner on the advice of the Premier. Additionally, Section 24B, Paragraph 4 of the Constitution Act 1902 states that “The Legislative Assembly may be dissolved within 2 months before the Assembly is due to expire if the general election would otherwise be required to be held during the same period as a Commonwealth election, during a holiday period or at any other inconvenient time.” [1] Since 27 March 2027 is Holy Saturday, it is highly unlikely that an election will be held on this day, given the number of citizens of New South Wales who travel or are otherwise occupied during the Easter long weekend. Two months before this date is 27 January 2027; however, since all Australian elections must by law take place on a Saturday, the earliest possible date for the 2027 New South Wales state election (other than by early dissolution) is Saturday 30 January 2027.

Pre-election pendulum

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Extended content
Labor seats (45)
Seat Member Party Margin
Marginal
Penrith Karen McKeown ALP 1.6%
East Hills Kylie Wilkinson ALP 1.8%
Monaro Steve Whan ALP 2.4% v NAT
Camden Sally Quinnell ALP 2.9%
South Coast Liza Butler ALP 3.7%
Riverstone Warren Kirby ALP 3.7%
Fairly safe
The Entrance David Mehan ALP 7.8%
Liverpool Charishma Kaliyanda ALP 8.4%
Parramatta Donna Davis ALP 8.5%
Leppington Nathan Hagarty ALP 8.7%
Prospect Hugh McDermott ALP 8.8%
Heathcote Maryanne Stuart ALP 9.9%
Safe
Bega Michael Holland ALP 10.4%
Cabramatta Tri Vo ALP 11.8%
Coogee Marjorie O'Neill ALP 12.2%
Strathfield Jason Yat-Sen Li ALP 13.1%
Londonderry Prue Car ALP 13.6%
Lismore Janelle Saffin ALP 15.0% v NAT
Rockdale Steve Kamper ALP 15.4%
Swansea Yasmin Catley ALP 15.4%
Gosford Liesl Tesch ALP 15.4%
Shellharbour Anna Watson ALP 17.1% v IND
Summer Hill Jo Haylen ALP 16.8% v GRN
Very safe
Kogarah Chris Minns ALP 18.3%
Maroubra Michael Daley ALP 18.6%
Maitland Jenny Aitchison ALP 18.6%
Port Stephens Kate Washington ALP 19.0%
Wyong David Harris ALP 19.2%
Macquarie Fields Anoulack Chanthivong ALP 19.9%
Blacktown Stephen Bali ALP 20.1%
Bankstown Jihad Dib ALP 20.3%
Charlestown Jodie Harrison ALP 21.1%
Fairfield David Saliba ALP 21.1%
Granville Julia Finn ALP 21.5%
Blue Mountains Trish Doyle ALP 21.9%
Mount Druitt Edmond Atalla ALP 22.3%
Newcastle Tim Crakanthorp ALP 22.6%
Heffron Ron Hoenig ALP 23.2%
Campbelltown Greg Warren ALP 23.3%
Cessnock Clayton Barr ALP 23.4% v ONP
Auburn Lynda Voltz ALP 24%
Keira Ryan Park ALP 24.3%
Wollongong Paul Scully ALP 24.3%
Canterbury Sophie Cotsis ALP 25.7%
Wallsend Sonia Hornery ALP 31.8%
Liberal/National seats (36)
Seat Member Party Margin
Marginal
Ryde Jordan Lane LIB 0.1%[a]
Holsworthy Tina Ayyad LIB 0.4%
Pittwater Jacqui Scruby IND 0.7% LIB v IND[b]
Oatley Mark Coure LIB 0.8%
Terrigal Adam Crouch LIB 1.2%
Goulburn Wendy Tuckerman LIB 1.3%
Drummoyne Stephanie Di Pasqua LIB 1.3%
Winston Hills Mark Taylor LIB 1.8%
Miranda Eleni Petinos LIB 2.3%
Willoughby Tim James LIB 2.6% v IND
Tweed Geoff Provest NAT 3.6%
Upper Hunter Dave Layzell NAT 3.8%
Manly James Griffin LIB 4.8% v IND
Epping Monica Tudehope LIB 4.8%[c]
Lane Cove Anthony Roberts LIB 5.5%
North Shore Felicity Wilson LIB 5.6% v IND
Fairly safe
Hornsby James Wallace LIB 8.0%[d]
Hawkesbury Robyn Preston LIB 9.9%
Safe
Wahroonga Alister Henskens LIB 10.5%
Badgerys Creek Tanya Davies LIB 10.5%
Castle Hill Mark Hodges LIB 10.9%
Kellyville Ray Williams LIB 10.9%
Oxley Michael Kemp NAT 12.8%
Vaucluse Kellie Sloane LIB 12.8% v IND
Coffs Harbour Gurmesh Singh NAT 13.2%
Davidson Matt Cross LIB 14.0%
Cronulla Mark Speakman LIB 14.0%
Clarence Richie Williamson NAT 14.5%
Tamworth Kevin Anderson NAT 15.8% v IND
Myall Lakes Tanya Thompson NAT 15.9%
Albury Justin Clancy LIB 16.3%
Port Macquarie Leslie Williams LIB 16.7%[e]
Very safe
Dubbo Dugald Saunders NAT 18.7%
Bathurst Paul Toole NAT 23.6%
Cootamundra Steph Cooke NAT 32.3%
Northern Tablelands Brendan Moylan NAT 33.8%[f]
Crossbench seats (12)
Seat Member Party Margin
Marginal
Wollondilly Judy Hannan IND 1.8% v LIB
Kiama Gareth Ward IND 1.8% v ALP
Balmain Kobi Shetty GRN 1.8% v ALP
Wakehurst Michael Regan IND 4.4% v LIB
Fairly safe
Ballina Tamara Smith GRN 7.7% v NAT
Safe
Newtown Jenny Leong GRN 12.1% v ALP
Sydney Alex Greenwich IND 15.8% v ALP
Murray Helen Dalton IND 16.0% v NAT
Barwon Roy Butler IND 16% v NAT
Very safe
Orange Philip Donato IND 22.0% v NAT
Wagga Wagga Joe McGirr IND 22.2% v NAT
Lake Macquarie Greg Piper IND 24.3% v ALP

Registered parties

[edit]
Main article: List of political parties in Australia

Fourteen parties are registered with the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).[4] Bold text indicates parliamentary parties.

Opinion polling

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Primary vote opinion polling for the New South Wales 2027 election with a local regression (LOESS) trendline for each party.
Two-party-preferred opinion polling for the New South Wales 2027 election witch a local regression (LOESS) trendline for each party.

Voting intention

[edit]
Legislative Assembly polling
Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote
ALP L/NP GRN ON OTH ALP L/NP
6 October 2024 Resolve Strategic[5][g] 32% 37% 11% — 20% 50% 50%
6–29 August 2024 Wolf & Smith[6][7] 32% 38% 12% — 18% 50% 50%
11 August 2024 Resolve Strategic[8][h] 30% 38% 12% — 20% 49% 51%
16 June 2024 Resolve Strategic[9][i] 32% 35% 11% — 22% 52% 48%
February – May 2024 Redbridge[10] 35% 40% 11% — 14% 50.5% 49.5%
21 April 2024 Resolve Strategic[11][j] 33% 36% 12% — 19% 52% 48%
25 February 2024 Resolve Strategic[12][k] 34% 38% 12% — 17% 51.5% 48.5%
5 November 2023 Resolve Strategic[13][l] 36% 32% 13% — 19% 57% 43%
10 September 2023 Resolve Strategic[14][m] 38% 36% 9% — 17% 54% 46%
16 July 2023 Resolve Strategic[15][n] 41% 32% 10% — 16% 58% 42%
14 May 2023 Resolve Strategic[16][o] 44% 31% 9% — 15% 60% 40%
25 March 2023 election 36.97% 35.37% 9.70% 1.80% 16.18% 54.26% 45.74%

Preferred Premier and satisfaction

[edit]
Better Premier and satisfaction polling
Date Firm Better Premier Minns Speakman
Minns Speakman Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
6 October 2024 Resolve Strategic[5] 37% 14% not asked not asked
11 August 2024 Resolve Strategic[8] 38% 13% not asked not asked
16 June 2024 Resolve Strategic[9] 38% 13% not asked not asked
February – May 2024 Redbridge[10] not asked 40% 20% 19% 21%
21 April 2024 Resolve Strategic[11] 37% 16% not asked not asked
25 February 2024 Resolve Strategic[12] 35% 16% not asked not asked
5 November 2023 Resolve Strategic[13] 35% 13% not asked not asked
10 September 2023 Resolve Strategic[14] 41% 14% not asked not asked
16 July 2023 Resolve Strategic[15] 39% 12% not asked not asked
14 May 2023 Resolve Strategic[16] 42% 12% not asked not asked
25 March 2023 election – – – – – –

See also

[edit]

Notes

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  1. ^ Jordan Lane won the seat by just 54 votes in the two-party-preferred contest against Labor candidate Lyndal Howison. Labor saw an 8.9% swing towards them on two-party-preferences, which was the exact margin that the Liberals won Ryde with in 2019 with Victor Dominello.
  2. ^ This number reflects the result at the 2023 New South Wales state election rather than the 2024 Pittwater state by-election, which Labor did not contest, for consistency.
  3. ^ This number reflects the result at the 2023 New South Wales state election rather than the 2024 Epping state by-election, which Labor did not contest, for consistency.
  4. ^ This number reflects the result at the 2023 New South Wales state election rather than the 2024 Hornsby state by-election, for consistency.
  5. ^ The margin shown is the Liberal vs Labor margin. At this election, two Coalition candidates contested the seat of Port Macquarie, both of which made the two-party-preferred contest. The Liberal vs National margin is 10.8%. It is very rare for the Coalition to run two candidates in New South Wales and it is thus unlikely that this phenomenon will reoccur in 2027.
  6. ^ This number reflects the result at the 2023 New South Wales state election rather than the 2024 Northern Tablelands state by-election, which Labor did not contest, for consistency.
  7. ^ Two-party preferred result estimated by Kevin Bonham.
  8. ^ Two-party preferred result estimated by William Bowe of Poll Bludger.
  9. ^ Two-party preferred result estimated by William Bowe of Poll Bludger.
  10. ^ Includes two-party preferred result estimate.
  11. ^ Two-party preferred result estimated by William Bowe of Poll Bludger.
  12. ^ Two-party preferred result estimated by William Bowe of Poll Bludger.
  13. ^ Two-party preferred result estimated by William Bowe of Poll Bludger.
  14. ^ Two-party preferred result estimated by William Bowe of Poll Bludger.
  15. ^ Two-party preferred result estimated by William Bowe of Poll Bludger.

References

[edit]
  1. ^ a b "Constitution Act 1902 No 32". legislation.nsw.gov.au. Retrieved 27 March 2023.
  2. ^ https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/politics/ben-franklin-becomes-nsw-legislative-council-president-after-bitter-saga/news-story/bbfb569efe2744bb1e2bb243eddb9052
  3. ^ "So when is the next election?". Aph.gov.au. 1 September 2016. Retrieved 28 September 2017.
  4. ^ "State Register of Parties". New South Wales Electoral Commission.
  5. ^ a b Smith, Alexandra (9 October 2024). "Revealed: The NSW housing reform that has disappointed most voters". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 9 October 2024.
  6. ^ "Polls: Resolve Strategic, RedBridge/Accent MRP poll, Wolf & Smith federal and state (open thread) – The Poll Bludger". www.pollbludger.net. Retrieved 9 September 2024.
  7. ^ "Federal & State Political Poll" (PDF). wolf+smith. August 2024. p. 27.
  8. ^ a b Smith, Alexandra (18 August 2024). "NSW voters back rental reforms to stop unfair evictions". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 18 August 2024.
  9. ^ a b Smith, Alexandra. "The housing crisis has split Sydney. This is where the voters have landed". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
  10. ^ a b O'Doherty, James. "'Politics of grievance' on show as Chris Minns' NSW Labor government slides in the polls". The Daily Telegraph. Retrieved 10 June 2024.
  11. ^ a b Bowe, William. "Resolve Strategic: Labor 33, Coalition 36, Greens 12 in NSW". Poll Bludger. Retrieved 3 May 2024.
  12. ^ a b Smith, Alexandra. "NSW Labor trailing Coalition for first time in two years". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 5 March 2024.
  13. ^ a b Smith, Alexandra. "NSW Labor slides as Greens, independents make ground with voters". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 11 November 2023.
  14. ^ a b Smith, Alexandra. "Honeymoon over as NSW Labor suffers hit to primary vote". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 14 September 2023.
  15. ^ a b Smith, Alexandra. "Majority still 'liked and respected' Berejiklian, but one-third changed minds after corrupt finding". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 21 July 2023.
  16. ^ a b Smith, Alexandra. "Rise in voters worried about skyrocketing rental prices adds to Minns' cost-of-living challenge". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 18 May 2023.
Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 | Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2027_New_South_Wales_state_election
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