Deep state

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A deep state^[1] is a type of government made up of potentially secret and unauthorized networks of power operating independently of a state's political leadership in pursuit of their own agenda and goals. In popular usage, the term carries overwhelmingly negative connotations and is often associated with conspiracy theories.^[2]

"Deep state" is a calque of the Turkish word derin devlet (lit. 'deep state'). The modern concept of a deep state is associated with Turkey, a presumed secret network of military officers and their civilian allies trying to preserve the secular order based on the ideas of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk from 1923.^[3] There are also opinions that the deep state in Turkey and "Counter-Guerrilla" was established in the Cold War era as a part of Gladio Organization to sway Turkey more into NATO against the threat of the expansion of Soviet communism.^[4]

After the 2016 United States presidential election, deep state became much more widely used as a pejorative term with an overwhelmingly negative definition by both the Donald Trump administration and conservative-leaning media outlets.^[5][6]

According to the journalist Julia Ioffe, the Russian Republic of Chechnya, under the leadership of Ramzan Kadyrov, had become a state within a state by 2015.^[7]

In 2013, author Abdul-Azim Ahmed wrote the deep state was being used to refer to Egyptian military/security networks, particularly the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces after the 2011 Egyptian revolution. They are "non-democratic leaders within a country" whose power is "independent of any political changes that take place". They are "often hidden beneath layers of bureaucracy" and may not be "in complete control at all times" but have "tangible control of key resources (whether human or financial)". He also wrote: "The 'deep state' is beginning to become short hand for the embedded anti-democratic power structures within a government, something very few democracies can claim to be free from."^[8]

In Germany, the Reichsbürger movement is seen as a significant internal threat analogous to the concept of a deep state. This movement consists of far-right extremists who reject the legitimacy of the Federal Republic of Germany, asserting that the German Reich, which existed prior to 1945, continues to exist. Members of this movement refuse to pay taxes, issue their own identification documents, and often engage in pseudo-legal tactics to assert their views.

In December 2022, German authorities foiled a coup plot orchestrated by a group influenced by the Reichsbürger movement and QAnon conspiracy theories. The conspirators aimed to overthrow the German government and install a new regime led by Prince Heinrich XIII, a minor aristocrat. The plot involved recruiting former military personnel and stockpiling weapons, intending to use force to achieve their goals. The group had mapped out a new government structure and appointed individuals to cabinet-like roles in anticipation of their success. They sought to cooperate with Russia, though there is no evidence that Russia supported or responded positively to their overtures.^[9]

In Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is often considered a significant deep state entity due to its substantial economic, political, and military power. The IRGC operates with considerable autonomy from the elected government and has been involved in various covert operations and influence campaigns. This includes control over significant economic sectors, involvement in foreign military activities, and influence over domestic policy decisions. The IRGC's pervasive influence is seen as a central component of Iran's deep state, shaping both internal and external politics in alignment with its agenda.^{[10][11][12][13]}

In May 2020, an article in Haaretz describes how people meeting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "have heard lengthy speeches [...] that even though he has been elected repeatedly, in reality, the country is controlled by a 'deep state.'"^[14]

The most famous case is Propaganda Due.^[15] Propaganda Due (better known as P2) was a Masonic lodge belonging to the Grand Orient of Italy (GOI). It was founded in 1877 with the name of Masonic Propaganda,^[16] in the period of its management by the entrepreneur Licio Gelli it assumed deviated forms with respect to the statutes of the Freemasonry and became subversive towards the Italian legal order. The P2 was suspended by the GOI on 26 July 1976; subsequently, the parliamentary commission of inquiry into the P2 Masonic lodge under the presidency of Minister Tina Anselmi concluded the P2 case by denouncing the lodge as a real "criminal organization"^[17] and "subversive". It was dissolved with a special law, the n. 17 of 25 January 1982.

Japan's "deep state" can be traced back to pre-World War II times, with the Imperial Japanese Army and the Kwantung Army wielding significant influence over the state. Post-war, elements of this influence continued through organized crime groups like the Yakuza, which have maintained a shadowy presence in Japan's political and economic spheres.^[18][19]

Robert Worth argues deep state is "just as apt" for networks in many states in the Middle East where governments have colluded with smugglers and jihadis (Syria), jihadi veterans of the Soviet–Afghan War (Yemen), and other criminals working as irregular forces (Egypt and Algeria).^[20] In his book From Deep State to Islamic State, he describes a hard core of regimes in Syria, Egypt, and Yemen that staged successful counter-revolutions against the Arab Spring in those countries, comparing them with the Mamluks of Egypt and the Levant 1250–1517 in that they proclaim themselves servants of the putative rulers while actually ruling themselves.^[21]

Since independence, the Pakistan Armed Forces have always had a huge influence in the country's politics as a national security institutions.^[22] In addition to the decades of direct rule by the military government, the military also has many constraints on the power of the elected prime ministers, and also has been accused of being a deep state.^[23][24][25] The Pakistan Army is often referred to as "The Establishment" due to its deep involvement in the country's decision-making processes specifically the foreign affairs.^[26]

According to the Journalist Robert F. Worth, "The expression 'deep state' had originated in Turkey in the 1990s, where the military colluded with drug traffickers and hit men to wage a dirty war against Kurdish insurgents".^[20] Professor Ryan Gingeras wrote that the Turkish term derin devlet "colloquially speaking" refers to "'criminal' or 'rogue' element that have somehow muscled their way into power".^[27] The journalist Dexter Filkins wrote of a "presumed clandestine network" of Turkish "military officers and their civilian allies" who, for decades, "suppressed and sometimes murdered dissidents, Communists, reporters, Islamists, Christian missionaries, and members of minority groups—anyone thought to pose a threat to the secular order".^[28] Journalist Hugh Roberts has described the "shady nexus" between the police and intelligence services, "certain politicians and organised crime", whose members believe they are authorised "to get up to all sorts of unavowable things" because they are "custodians of the higher interests of the nation".^[21]

The Civil Service has been called a deep state by senior politicians. In 2018, Steve Hilton, then advisor to David Cameron, claimed Tony Blair had said: "You cannot underestimate how much they believe it's their job to actually run the country and to resist the changes put forward by people they dismiss as 'here today, gone tomorrow' politicians. They genuinely see themselves as the true guardians of the national interest, and think that their job is simply to wear you down and wait you out."^[29] The British comedy series Yes Minister paints the conflict of the civil servant and the politician in charge in a humoristic way.

In February 2024, former Conservative Prime Minister Liz Truss claimed that she was forced out of office by the 'deep state' during an appearance at that year's Conservative Political Action Conference in the US. This statement was criticised within her own party and by the opposition, with both Labour Party Shadow Paymaster General Jonathan Ashworth and the Liberal Democrats Deputy Leader Daisy Cooper referring to it as a "conspiracy theory".^[30][31]

Since at least 1963, the deep state has been used to describe "a hybrid association of government elements and parts of top-level industry and finance that is effectively able to govern the United States without reference to the consent of the governed as expressed through the formal political process."^[32] Intelligence agencies such as the CIA have been accused by elements of the Donald Trump administration of attempting to thwart its policy goals.^[33] Writing for The New York Times, the analyst Issandr El Amani warned against the "growing discord between a president and his bureaucratic rank-and-file", while analysts of the column The Interpreter wrote:^[33]

Though the deep state is sometimes discussed as a shadowy conspiracy, it helps to think of it instead as a political conflict between a nation's leader and its governing institutions.

— Amanda Taub and Max Fisher, The Interpreter

According to the political commentator David Gergen, quoted by Time in early 2017, the term had been appropriated by Steve Bannon, Breitbart News, and other supporters of the Trump administration in order to delegitimize critics of the Trump presidency.^[34] In February 2017, the deep state theory was dismissed by authors for The New York Times,^[33] as well as The New York Observer.^[35] In October 2019 The New York Times gave credence to the general idea by publishing an opinion piece arguing that the deep state in the Civil Service was created to "battle people like Trump".^[36] Trump's warnings about a deep state have been referred to as "repeating a longtime [John Birch Society] talking point".^[37]

Scholars have generally disputed the notion that the U.S. Executive Branch bureaucracy represents a true deep state as the term is formally understood but have taken a range of views on the role of that bureaucracy in constraining or empowering the U.S. president.^[38]

The Cartel of the Suns, a group of high-ranking officials within the Bolivarian government of Venezuela, has been described as "a series of often competing networks buried deep within the Chavista regime". Following the Bolivarian Revolution, the Bolivarian government initially embezzled until there were no more funds to embezzle, which required them to turn to drug trafficking. President Hugo Chávez made partnerships with the Colombian leftist militia Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and his successor Nicolás Maduro continued the process, promoting officials to high-ranking positions after they were accused of drug trafficking.^[39]

• Imperial Brazil's Diretório Monárquico do Brasil and Black Guard^[40]
• Imperial Japan's Army, Kwantung Army and the post-war Yakuza^[41][42]
• India's Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh^[43][44]
• Indonesia's Kopassus^[45][46][47]
• Kingdom of Serbia's Black Hand^[48]
• Morocco's Makhzen^[49][50]
• Netherlands’ Student Societies^[51]
• Pakistan's Intelligence Community: ISI, FIA, NAB, and/or IB^[52][53]
• Serbia and Montenegro's RDB^[54]
• Spain's Grupos Antiterroristas de Liberación, "Antiterrorist Liberation Groups"^[55]
• Thailand's Military-Monarchy Nexus or Network Monarchy^[56]
• United Kingdom's City of London Corporation^[57]