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All 150 seats in the House of Representatives 76 seats are needed for a majority 40 (of the 76) seats in the Senate | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The next Australian federal election will be held on or before 27 September 2025 to elect members of the 48th Parliament of Australia. All 150 seats in the House of Representatives and likely 40 of the 76 seats in the Senate will be contested. It is expected that at this election, the Labor government of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will be seeking re-election to a second term in office, opposed by the Liberal/National Coalition under Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton.
At the previous election in May 2022, the Labor Party, led by Anthony Albanese, formed government after nine years in opposition, winning 77 seats in the House of Representatives, enough for a two-seat majority. The Liberal–National Coalition that had previously governed won only 58 seats and went into opposition. Meanwhile, the crossbench, made up of other parties and independents, expanded to 16 seats; four held by the Greens, one each by Centre Alliance and Katter's Australian Party and the remaining 10 by independents.[1]
In the Senate, Labor made no gains and remained steady at 26 seats overall, whilst the Coalition lost some seats and retained only 32 seats. The Greens made gains and increased their share of seats to 12. One Nation also remained steady at 2 seats, Centre Alliance and Rex Patrick Team each lost their sole Senate seat, while the Jacqui Lambie Network gained a second seat. David Pocock was also elected as an independent Senator, while the United Australia Party also gained a Senate seat. This meant Labor required 13 additional votes to pass legislation.[2]
The 47th Parliament opened on 26 July 2022. The Liberal Party entered the parliament with a new leader, with former defence and home affairs minister Peter Dutton replacing the outgoing prime minister Scott Morrison.[3]
On 23 December 2022, Nationals MP for Calare Andrew Gee left the party and became an Independent, following the party's decision to publicly oppose an Indigenous Voice to Parliament. This meant that the Crossbench increased to 17 seats with the Coalition decreasing to 57 seats.[4]
On 6 February 2023, Greens Senator Lidia Thorpe resigned from the party to sit as an Independent.
On 1 April 2023, Labor's Mary Doyle won the 2023 Aston by-election following the resignation of sitting Liberal MP Alan Tudge. The result was considered a massive upset and marked the first time that an incumbent government won a seat from the Opposition since the 1920 Kalgoorlie by-election.[5] As a result, Labor increased their number of seats in the House of Representatives to 78, while the Coalition decreased to 56.
In May 2023, incumbent Liberal National MP Stuart Robert resigned, triggering another by-election, this time in the seat of Fadden on the Gold Coast. The seat was won by Liberal National candidate Cameron Caldwell, keeping the composition of the parliament unchanged. Also in May 2023, Dai Le, the independent member for the seat of Fowler in Western Sydney, formed her own political party, the Dai Le and Frank Carbone Network, alongside Frank Carbone, the Mayor of Fairfield. The party will be primarily based in Western Sydney.[6]
On 15 June 2023, Liberal senator David Van was expelled from the party following sexual misconduct allegations by former LNP Senator Amanda Stoker and Independent Senator Lidia Thorpe, continuing his term as an Independent. On 14 November 2023, following a party preselection defeat, Liberal MP Russell Broadbent left the party to sit on the crossbench.[7]
On 4 December 2023, Labor MP Peta Murphy died of cancer, reducing Labor to 77 seats, though the party's share was restored to 78 seats on 2 March 2024, when candidate Jodie Belyea retained the seat of Dunkley at the by-election. Similarly the Liberal Party fell by one seat on 28 February 2024, when former prime minister and MP Scott Morrison resigned from the seat of Cook, though Liberal candidate Simon Kennedy retained the seat for the party at the April 2024 by-election.
Labor senator Linda White died in March 2024, later replaced by Lisa Darmanin, while Greens senator Janet Rice quit the following month, and was replaced by Steph Hodgins-May. Actual party-compositional changes occurred in the Senate when Tammy Tyrrell quit the Jacqui Lambie Network to sit as an independent on 28 March, and Labor senator Fatima Payman left the party and joined the crossbench as an independent in July 2024, citing disagreement with the party's position concerning the Israel-Gaza conflict.
The Senate composition changed once again on 25 August 2024 when Liberal National Senator Gerard Rennick resigned from the party following his preselection loss.
Members of the House of Representatives are elected by instant-runoff voting, which in Australia is known as full preferential voting. Each electorate elects one member.
Senators are elected by single transferable vote and proportional representation. In states senators are elected from state-wide twelve-member districts (although in most cases only six seats are contested at a single election), and in territories from territory-wide two-member districts.
Ballots are counted at least twice, at the polling place and, starting Monday night after election day, at counting centres.[8][9]
Parties are listed according their vote share at the last federal election
Affiliation | House | Senate | |||||
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Results of the 2022 election |
As of 3 December 2023 |
Change | Results of the 2022 election |
As of 25 August 2024 |
Change | ||
Labor | 77 | 78 | 1 | 26 | 25 | 1 | |
Coalition | 58 | 55 | 3 | 32 | 30 | 2 | |
The Greens | 4 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 11 | 1 | |
One Nation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
United Australia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
Katter's Australian | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Centre Alliance | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Lambie Network | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
Independents | 10 | 12 | 2 | 1[d] | 6 | 5 | |
Total seats | 151 | 76 |
The Australian Electoral Commission is required, one year after the first sitting day for a new House of Representatives, to determine the number of members to which each State and Territory is entitled. If the number in any state changes, a redistribution will be required in those states. A redistribution will be postponed if it would begin within one year of the expiration of the House of Representatives.
The apportionment determination was made in July 2023 based on the population figures for December 2022. The determination resulted in a reduction of one seat in New South Wales to 46, a reduction of one seat in Victoria to 38 and an increase of one seat in Western Australia to 16. The total number of seats in the House of Representatives will decrease from 151 to 150 at the next federal election.[10]
In May and June 2024, the Australian Electoral Commission released its draft proposals for electorate changes, recommending the creation of the Division of Bullwinkel (Western Australia) in the outer eastern suburbs of Perth, and the abolition of the Division of Higgins (Victoria) in Melbourne's inner south-east (held by Labor's Michelle Ananda-Rajah) and the Division of North Sydney (New South Wales) in Sydney's inner north-east (held by teal independent Kylea Tink).[11] In addition, the commission proposed altering the boundaries of several seats in all three states. The Western Australia and Victoria-based changes were confirmed by the commission on 5 September 2024, with the new boundaries to be gazetted on 24 September and 17 October respectively.[12][13] The New South Wales changes were confirmed on 12 September and will be gazetted on 10 October 2024.[14]
Enrolment of eligible voters is compulsory. Voters must notify the AEC within 8 weeks of a change of address or after turning 18. The electoral rolls are closed for new enrolments or update of details about a week after the issue of writs for election.[15] Enrolment is optional for 16 or 17-year-olds, but they cannot vote until they turn 18,[16] and persons who have applied for Australian citizenship may also apply for provisional enrolment which takes effect on the granting of citizenship.[17]
Election type | Earliest date | Latest date |
---|---|---|
Double dissolution (requires trigger) |
29 March 2025 | |
Simultaneous half-Senate and House of Representatives |
9 November 2024 | 24 May 2025 |
Half-Senate | ||
House of Representatives | 27 September 2025 |
The election of senators must take place within one year before the terms expire for half-Senate elections,[18] so that the writs for a half-Senate election cannot be issued earlier than 1 July 2024. Since campaigns are for a minimum of 33 days, as of 6 October 2024[update], the earliest possible date for a simultaneous House/half-Senate election is Saturday, 9 November 2024.[19] The latest that a half-Senate election could be held must allow time for the votes to be counted and the writs to be returned before the newly elected senators take office on 1 July 2025. The previous election's writs were returned on 24 June 2022, 34 days after the 2022 federal election.[20] Using this time frame, the last possible date for a half-Senate election to take place is Saturday 24 May 2025.
A double dissolution (a deadlock-breaking provision to dissolve both houses of parliament) cannot be called within six months before the date of the expiry of the House of Representatives.[21] That means that any double dissolution of the 47th Parliament would have had to be granted by 25 January 2025. Allowing for the same stages indicated above, the last possible date for a double dissolution election would be 29 March 2025.[19] This can only occur if a bill that passes the House of Representatives is rejected by the Senate twice, at least three months apart.
The constitutional and legal provisions which impact on the choice of election dates include:[22][23]
On 5 September 2024, during former leader of the Labor Party and current Minister for National Disability Insurance Scheme and Government Services Bill Shorten's announcement of his impending resignation, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese suggested that he may schedule the election to be held at a date later than Shorten's departure from Parliament in February 2025, while noting that the election is due by May 2025.[30]
Frontbenchers Linda Burney and Brendan O'Connor won't contest the next election.