Next Senedd election

Next Senedd election
← outgoing members
All 96 seats to the Senedd; 49 seats needed for a majority
	Opinion polls
Incumbent First Minister; Eluned Morgan; Labour	; ;

The next Senedd election is due to be held on or before 7 May 2026^[1] to elect 96 members to the Senedd (Welsh Parliament; Welsh: Senedd Cymru). It will be the seventh devolved general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. If held in 2026 it will also be the first election following current reforms to the voting system, which would increase the size of the Senedd from 60 members to 96, adopting a party-list voting system, reducing the number of constituencies to sixteen, and shortening its term from five years to four.^[2]^[3] It will also be the second election since the Senedd changed its name in May 2020.

Retiring members

The following MSs have announced their intention not run for re-election:

MS	Constituency/Region	First elected		Date announced
Mark Drakeford	Cardiff West	2011	Welsh Labour	9 August 2023^[4]
Vaughan Gething	Cardiff South and Penarth	2011	Welsh Labour	7 September 2024^[5]
Lee Waters	Llanelli	2016	Welsh Labour	24 October 2024^[6]

Electoral system

In all prior elections since its establishment as the Welsh Assembly in 1999, the Senedd has been elected through the additional member system, under which 40 out of 60 seats were elected by the first past the post system from single-member constituencies (the same as those used for Westminster), while the remaining 20 were attributed regionally (in 5 regions of 4 seats) on the basis of a second vote for a closed party list of candidates. The additional member seats in each region were allocated from the lists by the D'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation.

Following the approval of the Senedd Reform Act, the size of the Senedd will be increased from 60 to 96 MSs, all elected through closed party list proportional representation (using the D'Hondt method). The elections will be organised in 16 six-member constituencies created by pairing up the 32 redrawn Westminster constituencies.^[7]^[8]

Although the new system would only be ready and used for elections held after 6 April 2026, to allow time for the new constituencies to be drawn up.^[9] The next election is due to be held on 7 May 2026.^[10]

Another proposed reform bill would have provided for mandatory "zipping" of male and female candidates in the list to ensure that for every party, half of the Members will be women. However, this bill was scrapped in September 2024.^[11]

Opinion polling

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab	Con	Plaid Cymru	Green	Lib Dems	AWA	Reform	Others	Lead
Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size								Others	Lead
18 Oct – 4 Nov 2024	Survation^{[s 1]}	Reform UK	2,006	29%	18%	20%	7%	7%	–	19%	1%	9
6 Aug 2024	Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales
5–18 Jul 2024	Welsh Election Study	N/A	2,565	25%	16%	24%	6%	6%	7%	16%	1%	1
27 Jun – 1 Jul 2024	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,072	27%	18%	23%	5%	6%	–	18%	3%	4
5–7 Jun 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	960	36%	22%	18%	6%	6%	2%	11%	0%	14
30 May – 3 Jun 2024	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,066	30%	19%	23%	6%	6%	–	12%	4%	7
18–19 May 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	900	37%	20%	20%	5%	3%	5%	10%	0%	17
8 May 2024	The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026.
6 May 2021	2021 Senedd election (regional)^[12]		–	36.2%	25.1%	20.7%	4.4%	4.3%	3.7%	1.1%	4.5%	11.1
6 May 2021	2021 Senedd election (constituency)^[12]		–	39.9%	26.1%	20.3%	1.6%	4.9%	1.6%	1.6%	4.0%	13.8

Past opinion polling

The following polls used questions designed for the two forms of voting in previous Senedd elections, that are to be abolished in the next Senedd election planned for 2026.

Regional vote

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab	Con	Plaid Cymru	Green	Lib Dems	AWA	UKIP	Reform	Others	Lead
Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size									Others	Lead
24 Jun 2024	The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026.
22–23 Apr 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	840	33%	18%	19%	6%	7%	4%	–	12%	1%	14
23–24 Mar 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	878	32%	16%	18%	9%	7%	6%	–	11%	1%	14
20 Mar 2024	Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales^[13]
18 Feb 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	874	29%	16%	25%	4%	8%	7%	–	10%	1%	4
24–26 Jan 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	34%	19%	21%	6%	6%	6%	–	7%	1%	13
10–11 Dec 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,086	28%	20%	24%	7%	8%	4%	–	7%	1%	4
12–13 Nov 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	32%	21%	18%	9%	6%	5%	–	7%	1%	11
14–15 Oct 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	959	31%	21%	24%	4%	5%	7%	–	8%	–	10
16–17 Sep 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,172	35%	21%	18%	6%	12%	2%	–	5%	1%	14
1–6 Sep 2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,051	34%	16%	20%	6%	6%	9%	1%	6%	2%	14
13–14 Aug 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,068	31%	19%	22%	6%	10%	–	–	10%	3%	9
14–16 Jul 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,050	33%	20%	19%	6%	10%	–	–	6%	4%	13
17–18 Jun 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	30%	22%	20%	6%	9%	–	–	8%	4%	8
1 Jun 2023	Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes Leader of Plaid Cymru
12–17 May 2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,064	36%	16%	18%	7%	7%	5%	1%	7%	1%	18
14–15 May 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,058	30%	21%	24%	4%	10%	–	–	8%	4%	6
15–17 Apr 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,251	32%	22%	23%	7%	8%	–	–	7%	2%	9
3–7 Feb 2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,081	39%	18%	20%	5%	5%	6%	0%	6%	1%	19
25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,042	38%	16%	23%	5%	4%	8%	2%	4%	2% Gwlad on 1% Other on 1%	15
20–22 Sep 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,014	37%	18%	21%	5%	5%	7%	2%	4%	1%	16
12–16 Jun 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,020	31%	21%	24%	6%	5%	6%	2%	6%	2% Gwlad on 1% Other on 1%	7
25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,086	34%	23%	20%	4%	6%	6%	1%	3%	2% Gwlad on 1% Other on 1%	11
13–16 Dec 2021	YouGov	ITV Wales	1,009	35%	22%	19%	7%	3%	6%	2%	5%	1%	13
13–16 Sep 2021	YouGov	ITV Wales	1,057	33%	26%	19%	5%	4%	6%	4%	2%	1%	7
6 May 2021	2021 Senedd election^[12]		–	36.2%	25.1%	20.7%	4.4%	4.3%	3.7%	1.6%	1.1%	2.9%	11.1

Constituency vote

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab	Con	Plaid Cymru	Lib Dems	AWA	Green	Reform	Other	Lead
Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size								Other	Lead
8 May 2024	The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026.
22–23 Apr 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	840	37%	21%	22%	4%	3%	3%	10%	0%	15
23–24 Mar 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	878	36%	21%	21%	3%	3%	3%	11%	1%	15
20 Mar 2024	Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales^[13]
18 Feb 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	874	34%	21%	19%	4%	6%	3%	13%	0%	13
24–26 Jan 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	39%	25%	18%	3%	3%	4%	9%	1%	14
10–11 Dec 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,086	41%	22%	17%	7%	3%	3%	7%	0%	19
12–13 Nov 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	40%	23%	18%	3%	3%	4%	7%	1%	17
14–15 Oct 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	959	37%	27%	18%	4%	5%	3%	6%	-	10
16–17 Sep 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,172	39%	27%	18%	5%	1%	6%	3%	1%	12
1–6 Sep 2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,051	41%	18%	19%	6%	–	4%	8%	7%	22
13–14 Aug 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,068	37%	21%	20%	6%	–	3%	9%	4%	16
14–16 Jul 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,050	42%	22%	16%	6%	–	3%	7%	3%	20
17–18 Jun 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	36%	22%	19%	7%	–	3%	10%	3%	14
12–17 May 2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,064	40%	18%	17%	7%	–	5%	8%	4%	22
14–15 May 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,058	38%	23%	20%	7%	–	3%	7%	2%	15
15–17 Apr 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,251	41%	21%	20%	5%	–	4%	8%	2%	20
3–7 Feb 2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,081	43%	18%	20%	4%	–	4%	9%	1%	23
25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,042	44%	17%	20%	6%	–	3%	7%	4%	24
20–22 Sep 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,014	40%	20%	22%	6%	–	3%	5%	4%	18
12–16 Jun 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,020	37%	24%	21%	6%	–	5%	5%	3%	13
25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,086	38%	24%	21%	6%	–	3%	5%	4%	14
13–16 Dec 2021	YouGov	ITV Wales	1,009	40%	23%	17%	4%	–	5%	7%	4%	17
13–16 Sep 2021	YouGov	ITV Wales	1,057	37%	27%	19%	5%	–	4%	5%	5%	10
6 May 2021	2021 Senedd election^[12]		–	39.9%	26.1%	20.3%	4.9%	1.6%	1.6%	1.6%	4.0%	13.8

Notes

^ Survation asked voters to give their preferences under the current Additional Member System. The figure shown in this table is the proportional (regional) vote, as that is the closest equivalent to the new party list system.

References

^ Owens, Cathy (8 September 2021). "What to expect from the next five years in Welsh politics". WalesOnline. Retrieved 29 September 2021.
^ Mansfield, Mark (8 May 2024). "MSs approve Senedd reform bill". Nation.Cymru.
^ Browne, Adrian; Deans, David (8 May 2024). "Senedd expansion plans get go-ahead in Cardiff Bay vote". BBC Wales.
^ "Mark Drakeford to quit Senedd at next election". BBC News. 9 August 2023. Retrieved 9 August 2023.
^ "Former Welsh first minister Vaughan Gething to stand down at next election". The Guardian. 7 September 2024. Retrieved 7 September 2024.
^ "Wales' 20mph minister to step down in 2026". BBC News. 24 October 2024. Retrieved 25 October 2024.
^ "Plans for more Senedd politicians get go-ahead". BBC News. 17 May 2022. Retrieved 14 June 2022.
^ "Senedd reform | GOV.WALES". www.gov.wales. 9 May 2024. Retrieved 17 May 2024.
^ "Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act 2024". legislation.gov.uk.
^ "See exactly when the next election in Wales will be". South Wales Argus. 20 September 2023. Retrieved 19 August 2024.
^ Browne, Adrian (24 September 2024). "Senedd backs U-turn on election gender quotas". BBC News. Retrieved 26 October 2024.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d Davies, Owain; Holzinger, Owen; McCarthy, Joanne; Jones, Helen (2021). Senedd Election 2021: Research Briefing (PDF). Senedd Research. p. 16.
^ ^a ^b "Vaughan Gething confirmed as Wales' new first minister". BBC News. 19 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.

External links