Opinion polling for the 1979 United Kingdom general election

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In the run-up to the 1979 general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the October general election until 3 May 1979.

Graphical summaries

[edit]

The chart below depicts opinion polls conducted for the 1979 United Kingdom general election.

  Conservatives
  Labour
  Liberals

National Poll Results

[edit]

All data is from UK Polling Report.[1]

1979

[edit]
Survey
end date
Pollster Client Lab Con Lib Lead
3 May 1979 general election 36.9% 43.9% 13.8% 7%
2 May Gallup The Daily Telegraph 38.5% 49% 9% 10.5%
2 May NOP Daily Mail 39% 46% 12.5% 7%
2 May Gallup The Daily Telegraph 41% 43% 13.5% 2%
2 May MORI Evening Standard 37% 45% 15% 8%
1 May MORI Daily Express 38.8% 44.4% 13.5% 5.6%
1 May Marplan The Sun 38.5% 45% 9% 6.5%
30 Apr NOP Daily Mail 43.1% 42.4% 12.2% 0.7%
26 Apr MORI Daily Express 41% 44% 12% 3%
25 Apr Gallup The Sunday Telegraph 40% 48% 10.5% 8%
25 Apr Research Srv The Observer 38% 49.5% 10% 11.5%
25 Apr Marplan The Sun 40% 48% 10% 8%
23 Apr MORI Daily Express 40% 46% 11% 6%
21 Apr Gallup The Daily Telegraph 41.5% 46.5% 10% 5%
19 Apr Marplan The Sun 40% 50% 9% 10%
18 Apr Gallup The Sunday Telegraph 42% 47.5% 9% 5.5%
18 Apr Marplan The Sun 41% 51% 6% 10%
18 Apr Research Srv The Observer 34% 54% 9.5% 20%
17 Apr MORI Daily Express 38% 50% 10% 12%
14 Apr NOP Daily Mail 42% 48% 8% 6%
11 Apr Research Srv The Observer 37% 53% 8% 16%
9 Apr Gallup The Daily Telegraph 40% 50% 8% 10%
9 Apr MORI Daily Express 39% 49% 10% 10%
7 Apr The Dissolution of the 47th Parliament and campaigning officially begins
4 Apr Research Srv The Observer 33.5% 54.5% 9% 21%
3 Apr NOP Daily Mail 42% 48% 8% 6%
2 Apr MORI Daily Express 38% 51% 10% 13%
29 Mar MORI Thames 42% 51% 5% 9%
29 Mar Liverpool Edge Hill by-election
28 Mar The vote of no confidence in the Callaghan ministry passes[2]
28 Mar Gallup The Daily Telegraph 40.5% 47.5% 9% 7%
12 Mar Gallup The Daily Telegraph 37% 51.5% 8.5% 14.5%
5 Mar MORI N/A 39% 52% 7% 13%
1 Mar Knutsford and Clitheroe by-elections
14 Feb The Winter of Discontent ends following negotiations with the TUC[3]
12 Feb Gallup The Daily Telegraph 33% 53% 11% 20%
8 Feb NOP N/A 40.7% 49% 7.4% 8.3%
1 Feb MORI N/A 36% 55% 6% 19%
15 Jan Gallup The Daily Telegraph 41.5% 49% 6% 7.5%
4 Jan NOP N/A 49.1% 42.5% 5.7% 6.6%

1978

[edit]
Survey
end date
Pollster Client Lab Con Lib Lead
14 Dec The Callaghan ministry survives a vote of no confidence[4]
11 Dec Gallup The Daily Telegraph 42.5% 48% 6% 5.5%
7 Dec NOP N/A 47.9% 44.7% 4.6% 3.2%
13 Nov Gallup The Daily Telegraph 48% 43% 6.5% 5%
9 Nov NOP N/A 46.8% 44.8% 6.2% 2%
8 Nov MORI N/A 46% 47% 5% 1%
26 Oct Pontefract and Castleford & Berwick and East Lothian by-elections
23 Oct Gallup The Daily Telegraph 47.5% 42% 7.5% 5.5%
12 Oct NOP N/A 48.5% 44.2% 4.7% 4.3%
11 Sep Gallup The Daily Telegraph 42.5% 49.5% 6% 7%
11 Sep MORI N/A 42% 48% 8% 6%
7 Sep The Lib-Lab pact ends[5]
5 Sep NOP N/A 45.8% 48% 4.8% 2.2%
4 Sep MORI N/A 45% 47% 5% 2%
14 Aug Gallup The Daily Telegraph 47.5% 43.5% 6% 4%
14 Aug MORI N/A 44% 47% 6% 3%
9 Aug NOP N/A 48.5% 42.4% 6.3% 6.1%
17 Jul Gallup The Daily Telegraph 43% 45% 8.5% 2%
13 Jul Penistone & Manchester Moss Side by-elections
11 Jul MORI N/A 41% 49% 6% 8%
5 Jul NOP N/A 44.4% 46.5% 6.3% 2.1%
30 Jun MORI N/A 42% 48% 6% 6%
14 Jun NOP N/A 42.3% 49.1% 6.3% 6.8%
13 Jun MORI N/A 45% 46% 6% 1%
12 Jun Gallup The Daily Telegraph 45.5% 45.5% 6% Tie
31 May Hamilton by-election
24 May MORI N/A 46% 45% 6% 1%
15 May Gallup The Daily Telegraph 43.5% 43.5% 8.5% Tie
9 May NOP N/A 48% 43.1% 7% 4.9%
2–4 May 1978 local elections[6]
27 Apr Wycombe & Epsom and Ewell by-elections
20 Apr Lambeth Central by-election
17 Apr Gallup The Daily Telegraph 43.5% 45.5% 7.5% 2%
13 Apr MORI N/A 44% 46% 7% 2%
13 Apr Glasgow Garscadden by-election
12 Apr NOP N/A 44.5% 46.2% 6.6% 1.7%
20 Mar Gallup The Daily Telegraph 41% 48% 8% 7%
8 Mar NOP N/A 45.6% 44.6% 7.3% 1%
2 Mar Ilford North by election
15 Feb NOP N/A 44.6% 45.3% 7.1% 0.7%
13 Feb Gallup The Daily Telegraph 39% 48% 9% 9%
18 Jan NOP 45.5% 44% 7.5% 1.5%
16 Jan Gallup The Daily Telegraph 43.5% 43.5% 8.5% Tie

1977

[edit]
Survey
end date
Pollster Client Lab Con Lib Lead
14 Dec NOP N/A 48.8% 40.8% 7% 8%
12 Dec Gallup The Daily Telegraph 44.5% 44% 8% 0.5%
7 Dec NOP N/A 44.1% 44.6% 7.5% 0.5%
30 Nov NOP N/A 47.5% 43.2% 6.3% 4.3%
24 Nov Bournemouth East by election
23 Nov NOP N/A 44.3% 46.7% 6.2% 2.4%
16 Nov NOP N/A 48.5% 42.5% 6.2% 6%
14 Nov Gallup The Daily Telegraph 42% 45.5% 8.5% 3.5%
9 Nov NOP N/A 44.1% 45.5% 7% 1.4%
26 Oct NOP N/A 43% 46.7% 6.9% 3.7%
26 Oct MORI N/A 44% 45% 7% 1%
24 Oct Gallup The Daily Telegraph 45% 45% 8% Tie
19 Oct NOP N/A 45.8% 44.1% 7.3% 1.7%
22 Sep MORI N/A 42% 49% 5% 7%
14 Sep NOP N/A 41.8% 48% 7.3% 6.2%
12 Sep Gallup The Daily Telegraph 41% 45.5% 8.5% 4.5%
18 Aug Birmingham Ladywood by election
15 Aug Gallup The Daily Telegraph 37.5% 48.5% 9% 11%
10 Aug NOP N/A 38.2% 51.3% 7.1% 13.1%
18 Jul Gallup The Daily Telegraph 34.5% 49% 10.5% 14.5%
13 Jul NOP N/A 35.1% 53.1% 8.4% 18%
7 Jul Saffron Walden by election
22 Jun NOP N/A 37.1% 49.1% 10.8% 12%
13 Jun Gallup The Daily Telegraph 37% 47.5% 10.5% 10.5%
16 May Gallup The Daily Telegraph 33% 53.5% 8.5% 20.5%
11 May NOP N/A 36.9% 52.9% 7.2% 16%
3–18 May 1977 local elections[7][8][9]
2 May NOP N/A 41% 48.3% 6.6% 7.3%
28 Apr Grimsby & Ashfield by-elections
20 Apr NOP N/A 38.3% 49.4% 9.1% 11.1%
18 Apr Gallup The Daily Telegraph 33.5% 49% 11.5% 15.5%
31 Mar Birmingham Stechford by-election
23 Mar NOP N/A 35.7% 50.9% 9.7% 15.2%
23 Mar The Lib–Lab pact is formed[10][11]
14 Mar Gallup The Daily Telegraph 33% 49.5% 13% 16.5%
28 Feb MORI N/A 38% 47% 12% 9%
24 Feb City of London and Westminster South by-election
23 Feb NOP N/A 37.4% 47.3% 10.9% 9.9%
16 Feb NOP N/A 36.1% 50.2% 10% 14.1%
14 Feb Gallup The Daily Telegraph 33.5% 46% 14% 12.5%
26 Jan NOP N/A 36.8% 48.4% 10.2% 11.6%
17 Jan Gallup The Daily Telegraph 34% 47% 14.5% 13%
2 Jan NOP N/A 35.1% 50% 11.2% 14.9%

1976

[edit]
Survey
end date
Pollster Client Lab Con Lib Lead
14 Dec NOP N/A 38.4% 47.9% 10.6% 9.5%
2 Dec Cambridge by-election
13 Dec Gallup The Daily Telegraph 34% 49.5% 11.5% 15.5%
28 Nov NOP N/A 31.3% 55.2% 9.4% 23.9%
15 Nov Gallup The Daily Telegraph 30% 55% 11.5% 25%
7 Nov NOP N/A 38.2% 49.3% 9.3% 11.1%
4 Nov Workington, Walsall North and Newcastle-upon-Tyne Central by-elections
18 Oct Gallup The Daily Telegraph 36.5% 48% 11.5% 11.5%
17 Oct NOP N/A 34.9% 53.4% 8.3% 18.5%
10 Oct NOP N/A 35.9% 50.7% 9.5% 14.8%
26 Sep NOP N/A 39.6% 45.6% 9.9% 6%
20 Sep Gallup The Daily Telegraph 42% 42.5% 11% 0.5%
12 Sep NOP N/A 40.5% 46.5% 9.1% 6%
22 Aug NOP N/A 43.3% 43.9% 9.3% 0.6%
16 Aug Gallup The Daily Telegraph 41% 44% 10% 3%
18 Jul NOP N/A 43.5% 43.6% 8.7% 0.1%
15 Jul Thurrock by-election
12 Jul Gallup The Daily Telegraph 41% 41% 13% Tie
11 Jul NOP N/A 44.1% 42.1% 9.5% 2%
7 Jul David Steel is elected leader of the Liberal Party[12]
24 Jun Rotherham by-election
14 Jun Gallup The Daily Telegraph 40.5% 44% 11% 3.5%
10 Jun NOP N/A 41.2% 45.8% 8.8% 4.6%
23 May NOP N/A 43% 44.7% 8.3% 1.7%
17 May Gallup The Daily Telegraph 41% 44% 10.5% 3%
16 May NOP N/A 41.5% 46.5% 8.3% 5%
6 May 1976 local elections[13]
28 Apr NOP N/A 46.1% 41.7% 8.4% 4.4%
12 Apr Gallup The Daily Telegraph 46.5% 41% 9% 5.5%
11 Apr NOP N/A 44.7% 43.6% 9% 1.1%
9 Apr MORI N/A 46% 40% 10% 6%
5 Apr James Callaghan is elected leader of the Labour Party
and becomes Prime Minister
[14]
19 Mar MORI N/A 47% 40% 9% 7%
15 Mar Gallup The Daily Telegraph 41.5% 44% 9.5% 2.5%
14 Mar NOP N/A 41.7% 46% 8.8% 4.3%
11 Mar Wirral & Carshalton by-elections
4 Mar Coventry North West by-election
16 Feb Gallup The Daily Telegraph 40.5% 45.5% 10.5% 5%
25 Jan NOP N/A 42.8% 42% 11.3% 0.8%
22 Jan NOP N/A 40.5% 43.9% 11.4% 3.4%
19 Jan Gallup The Daily Telegraph 42% 40.5% 14% 1.5%

1975

[edit]
Survey
end date
Pollster Client Lab Con Lib Lead
16 Dec NOP N/A 38.3% 45.4% 11.7% 7.1%
16 Dec Gallup The Daily Telegraph 41% 40.5% 14% 0.5%
30 Nov NOP N/A 37.4% 44.5% 14.9% 7.1%
17 Nov Gallup The Daily Telegraph 44.5% 39% 12.5% 5.5%
16 Nov NOP N/A 41.2% 43.6% 12.7% 2.4%
30 Oct NOP N/A 41.5% 43.4% 11.8% 1.9%
20 Oct Gallup The Daily Telegraph 40.5% 42.5% 13.5% 2%
22 Sep Gallup The Daily Telegraph 41.5% 38.5% 16.5% 3%
7 Sep NOP N/A 40.8% 45.7% 10.3% 4.9%
18 Aug Gallup The Daily Telegraph 42% 40.5% 14% 1.5%
17 Aug NOP N/A 40.3% 44.4% 11.6% 4.1%
14 Jul Gallup The Daily Telegraph 40.5% 43% 12.5% 2.5%
29 Jun NOP N/A 37.2% 48.8% 10.4% 11.6%
26 Jun Woolwich West by-election
16 Jun Gallup The Daily Telegraph 40.5% 44% 13% 3.5%
5 Jun The United Kingdom votes "Yes" to staying in the European Community[15]
1 Jun NOP N/A 43.6% 42% 10.7% 1.6%
19 May Gallup The Daily Telegraph 39.5% 45.5% 11% 6%
11 May NOP N/A 40.2% 42.9% 13% 2.7%
1 May 1975 local elections[16]
27 Apr NOP N/A 43.5% 42.4% 10.9% 1.1%
14 Apr Gallup The Daily Telegraph 45% 43% 10% 2%
6 Apr NOP N/A 43.3% 44.8% 9.1% 1.5%
17 Mar Gallup The Daily Telegraph 44% 42% 11% 2%
2 Mar NOP N/A 46.4% 40.8% 10.3% 5.6%
17 Feb Gallup The Daily Telegraph 41% 45% 11% 4%
11 Feb Margaret Thatcher is elected leader of the Conservative Party[17][18]
9 Feb NOP N/A 46% 38.6% 11.1% 7.4%
2 Feb NOP N/A 43.8% 38.1% 14.6% 5.7%
19 Jan NOP N/A 47.8% 32.4% 15.9% 15.4%
13 Jan Gallup The Daily Telegraph 48.5% 34% 13% 14.5%

1974

[edit]
Survey
end date
Pollster Client Lab Con Lib Lead
16 Dec Gallup The Daily Telegraph 47% 33% 16.5% 14%
1 Dec NOP N/A 47.7% 38.4% 11.1% 9.3%
18 Nov Gallup The Daily Telegraph 46.5% 35% 14.5% 11.5%
27 Oct NOP N/A 43.7% 36.6% 15.1% 7.1%
10 Oct Oct 1974 general election 39.2% 35.8% 18.3% 3.4%

Polling in the nations and regions

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Scotland

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted
Pollster Client Sample
size
Lab SNP Con Lib SLP Lead
3 May 1979 1979 election 41.5% 17.3% 31.4% 9.0% 0.5% 10.1%
3 May 1979[a] Scottish Daily Express 44% 18% 30% 6% 14%
30 Apr 1979[a] Opinion Research Centre The Scotsman 42% 15% 34% 8% 8%
25 Apr 1979[a] Opinion Research Centre The Scotsman 42% 16% 33% 9% 9%
10–12 Apr 1979 System Three Glasgow Herald 1,079 49% 17% 27% 6% 1% 22%
26 Mar2 Apr 1979 System Three Glasgow Herald 1,003 45% 19% 29% 6% 2% 16%
7 Apr 1979 Dissolution of the 47th Parliament and campaigning officially begins
1 Mar 1979 1979 Scottish devolution referendum
24–25 Feb 1979 System Three Glasgow Herald 1,080 40% 18% 37% 4% 1% 3%
20–22 Feb 1979 MORI Scottish Daily Express 1,037 44% 21% 32% 2% 12%
12–14 Feb 1979 MORI LWT Weekend World 1,015 45% 23% 30% 2% 15%
29 Jan6 Feb 1979 System Three Glasgow Herald 1,003 40% 23% 31% 4% 1% 9%
8–20 Jan 1979 System Three Glasgow Herald 926 45% 20% 31% 2% 2% 14%
Dec 1978 System Three Glasgow Herald 48% 21% 25% 4% 2% 23%
Nov 1978 System Three Glasgow Herald 51% 21% 23% 3% 2% 28%
26 Oct 1978 1978 Berwick and East Lothian by-election
26 Sep3 Oct 1978 System Three Glasgow Herald 972 48% 19% 27% 4% 1% 21%
30 Aug8 Sep 1978 System Three Glasgow Herald 1,000 52% 18% 24% 3% 3% 28%
31 Jul9 Aug 1978 System Three Glasgow Herald 962 48% 18% 30% 4% 0.5% 18%
26 Jun5 Jul 1978 System Three Glasgow Herald 906 47% 22% 26% 4% 1% 21%
31 May 1978 1978 Hamilton by-election
2 May 1978 1978 Scottish regional elections
25 Apr2 May 1978 System Three Glasgow Herald 1,024 47% 24% 24% 3% 2% 23%
13 Apr 1978 1978 Glasgow Garscadden by-election
27 Mar5 Apr 1978 System Three Glasgow Herald 1,008 38% 27% 29% 4% 2% 9%
5 Apr 1978 MORI LWT Weekend World 1,002 41% 27% 30% 3% 1% 11%
6–14 Mar 1978 System Three Glasgow Herald 1,031 35% 27% 30% 5% 2% 5%
30 Jan6 Feb 1978 System Three Glasgow Herald 994 38% 27% 28% 5% 2% 10%
Jan 1978 System Three Glasgow Herald 34% 29% 28% 6% 3% 5%
Nov 1977 System Three Glasgow Herald 35% 30% 27% 5% 3% 5%
24 Oct8 Nov 1977 System Three Glasgow Herald 984 36% 26% 30% 6% 2% 6%
26 Sep6 Oct 1977 System Three Glasgow Herald 971 31% 28% 32% 6% 2% 1%
22 Aug2 Sep 1977 System Three Glasgow Herald 1,045 29% 30% 32% 5% 4% 2%
25 Jul8 Aug 1977 System Three Glasgow Herald 947 32% 33% 26% 5% 3% 1%
Jun 1977 System Three Glasgow Herald 28% 32% 31% 6% 2% 1%
30 May7 Jun 1977 System Three Glasgow Herald 1,019 33% 35% 26% 4% 1% 2%
3 May 1977 1977 Scottish local elections
25 Apr4 May 1977 System Three Glasgow Herald 1,012 28% 31% 31% 6% 2% Tied
Mar 1977 System Three Glasgow Herald 27% 36% 27% 5% 3% 9%
26 Feb5 Mar 1977 System Three Glasgow Herald 978 29% 31% 32% 5% 3% 1%
Jan 1977 System Three Glasgow Herald 28% 33% 29% 6% 4% 4%
27 Sep7 Oct 1976 System Three Glasgow Herald 948 30% 28% 30% 9% 1% Tied
23–30 Aug 1976 System Three Glasgow Herald 1,009 30% 30% 31% 4% 4% 1%
28 Jun7 Jul 1976 System Three Glasgow Herald 943 34% 27% 32% 4% 3% 2%
24 May4 Jun 1976 System Three Glasgow Herald 855 35% 25% 32% 4% 3% 3%
24 Feb4 Mar 1976 System Three Glasgow Herald 929 24% 33% 28% 6% 8% 5%
7–14 Jan 1976 System Three Glasgow Herald 980 30% 36% 28% 5% 6%
Nov 1975 System Three Glasgow Herald 42% 26% 26% 5% 16%
5 Jun 1975 1975 United Kingdom European Communities membership referendum
26–30 May 1975 System Three Glasgow Herald 1,016 40% 26% 28% 5% 12%
28 Apr2 May 1975 System Three Glasgow Herald 1,022 37% 27% 31% 5% 6%
26 Mar4 Apr 1975 System Three Glasgow Herald 890 40% 24% 29% 6% 11%
25 Feb5 Mar 1975 System Three Glasgow Herald 883 40% 29% 28% 3% 11%
28 Jan5 Feb 1975 System Three Glasgow Herald 982 40% 29% 24% 6% 11%
10 Oct 1974 October 1974 election 36.3% 30.4% 24.7% 8.3% N/A 5.9%

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c Date the poll was published.

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "UK Polling Report". ukpollingreport.co.uk. Retrieved 16 December 2019.
  2. ^ Aikten, Ian (29 March 1979). "Labour fall by one vote". The Guardian.
  3. ^ Jenkins, Peter (15 February 1979). "Pay later deal in Callaghan's survival kit". The Guardian.
  4. ^ Aikten, Ian; Harper, Keith (15 December 1978). "Callaghan home by 10 Votes". The Guardian.
  5. ^ Aikten, Ian (8 September 1978). "Callaghan gambles on finding new Allies". The Guardian.
  6. ^ Jordan, Philip (5 May 1978). "Labour slips in London after gains in North". The Guardian.
  7. ^ Hetherington, Peter (4 May 1977). "Big gains for SNP but Glasgow is split". The Guardian.
  8. ^ Jordan, Philip (6 May 1977). "Massive swing gives Tories the cities". The Guardian.
  9. ^ McHardy, Anne; Wainwright, Martin (19 May 1977). "Shots fired in Ulster poll". The Guardian.
  10. ^ "Joint Statement on the Lib-Lab Pact: Steel and Callaghan – Liberal History". Liberal History. 24 March 1977. Retrieved 16 July 2021.
  11. ^ Aikten, Ian (24 March 1977). "Liberal deal strains Left". The Guardian.
  12. ^ Hoggart, Simon (8 July 1976). "Smith snub victor Steel". The Guardian.
  13. ^ Lewis, James (7 May 1976). "Tories gain – but no landslide". The Guardian.
  14. ^ Aikten, Ian (6 April 1976). "Callaghan puts his trust in the people". The Guardian.
  15. ^ McKie, David (7 June 1975). "Anatomy of a Landslide". The Guardian.
  16. ^ Johnson, Dennis (2 May 1975). "Tories weaken Labour grip". The Guardian.
  17. ^ Aikten, Ian (12 February 1975). "First lady will put Tories right". The Guardian.
  18. ^ Parry, Gareth (12 February 2015). "From the archive, 12 February 1975: Dreamy, says Thatcher, the new chief Tory". The Guardian. Retrieved 16 July 2021.

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