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Opinion polling for the 1992 United Kingdom general election

From Wikipedia - Reading time: 15 min

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1992 election
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Opinion polls

In the run up to the 1992 general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in the United Kingdom. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the election to 8 April.

Almost every poll leading up to polling day predicted either a hung parliament with Labour the largest party, or a small Labour majority of around 19 to 23. Polls on the last few days before the country voted predicted a very slim Labour majority.[1] After the polls closed, the BBC and ITV exit polls still predicted that there would be a hung parliament and "that the Conservatives would only just get more seats than Labour".[2]

With opinion polls at the end of the campaign showing Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck, the actual election result, a small Conservative majority, was a surprise to many in the media and in polling organisations. The apparent failure of the opinion polls to come close to predicting the actual result led to an inquiry by the Market Research Society. Following the election, most opinion polling companies changed their methodology in the belief that a 'Shy Tory factor' affected the polling.

Graphical summary

[edit]
UK opinion polling for the election (trendline is local regression)
  Conservative
  Labour
  Liberal-SDP Alliance
  Liberal Democrats
  SDP

Results

[edit]

All data is from UK Polling Report.[3]

1992

[edit]
Survey
end date 		Pollster Client Con Lab Lib Dem Lead
9 Apr 1992 general election[4] 42.8% 35.2% 18.3% 7.6%
8 Apr NOP The Independent 39% 42% 17% 3%
8 Apr Gallup The Daily Telegraph 38.5% 38% 20% 0.5%
8 Apr MORI The Times 38% 39% 20% 1%
7 Apr ICM The Guardian 38% 38% 20% Tie
7 Apr Harris ITN 38% 40% 18% 2%
6 Apr MORI YTV 37% 40% 20% 3%
4 Apr Harris Daily Express 37% 38% 21% 1%
4 Apr Harris The Observer 38% 40% 17% 2%
3 Apr NOP The Mail on Sunday 35% 41% 20% 6%
3 Apr MORI The Sunday Times 37% 39% 21% 2%
3 Apr Gallup The Sunday Telegraph 37.5% 37.5% 21% Tie
3 Apr NOP The Independent on Sunday 38% 41% 17% 3%
3 Apr ICM Press Association 36.2% 38.7% 20.4% 2.5%
1 Apr ICM Sunday Express 37% 39% 19% 2%
1 Apr Gallup The Daily Telegraph 38% 37.5% 20.5% 0.5%
31 Mar NOP The Independent 37% 39% 19% 2%
31 Mar Neilsen N/A 39.8% 39.6% 17.2% 0.2%
31 Mar Harris ITN 35% 41% 19% 6%
30 Mar ICM The Guardian 37% 41% 18% 4%
30 Mar Harris Daily Express 40% 39% 17% 1%
29 Mar MORI The Times 35% 42% 19% 7%
28 Mar Audience Selection N/A 37% 39% 19% 2%
28 Mar NOP The Independent on Sunday 39% 40% 16% 1%
27 Mar NOP The Mail on Sunday 37% 41% 18% 4%
27 Mar MORI The Sunday Times 38% 40% 20% 2%
27 Mar Harris The Observer 40% 38% 17% 2%
25 Mar ICM Sunday Express 36% 38% 20% 2%
25 Mar NOP The Independent 39% 42% 14% 3%
24 Mar Gallup The Daily Telegraph 40% 40.5% 16.5% 0.5%
24 Mar MORI N/A 38% 41% 17% 3%
24 Mar ICM The Guardian 39% 40% 17% 1%
23 Mar NMR EUR 38% 39% 19% 1%
23 Mar Harris Daily Express 43% 38% 15% 5%
23 Mar Harris ITN 38% 42% 16% 4%
21 Mar MORI The Times 38% 41% 17% 3%
21 Mar NOP The Independent on Sunday 38% 40% 16% 2%
20 Mar NOP The Mail on Sunday 39% 41% 15% 2%
20 Mar MORI The Sunday Times 38% 41% 19% 3%
20 Mar Harris The Observer 40% 39% 17% 1%
18 Mar ICM Sunday Express 37% 42% 16% 5%
18 Mar Gallup The Daily Telegraph 40.5% 38.5% 18% 2%
17 Mar NOP The Independent 38% 42% 17% 4%
16 Mar ICM The Guardian 38% 43% 16% 5%
16 Mar Harris Daily Express 41% 38% 17% 3%
13 Mar MORI The Times 38% 43% 16% 5%
13 Mar Harris Daily Express 39% 40% 16% 1%
13 Mar Harris London Weekend Television 37% 41% 17% 4%
13 Mar MORI The Sunday Times 40% 39% 16% 1%
13 Mar NOP The Independent on Sunday 40% 41% 14% 1%
12 Mar ICM Sunday Express 39% 40% 16% 1%
12 Mar MORI The Times 38% 41% 16% 3%
12 Mar Harris The Observer 40% 43% 12% 3%
11 Mar Gallup N/A 41% 38.5% 15% 2.5%
10 Mar NOP The Mail on Sunday 41% 40% 15% 1%
7 Mar Gallup The Daily Telegraph 37% 38% 20% 1%
7 Mar NOP The Mail on Sunday 38% 41% 16% 3%
6 Mar ICM The Guardian 39% 42% 15% 3%
2 Mar Harris The Observer 39% 40% 14% 1%
25 Feb Gallup The Daily Telegraph 38.5% 38.5% 18.5% Tie
25 Feb Gallup The Daily Telegraph 37% 37.5% 20% 0.5%
23 Feb MORI The Sunday Times 39% 40% 18% 1%
22 Feb Audience Selection N/A 36% 38% 18% 2%
18 Feb ICM Daily Mail 38% 41% 17% 3%
17 Feb Gallup The Daily Telegraph 39% 37% 19% 2%
14 Feb NOP The Independent 38% 42% 15% 4%
13 Feb ICM Sunday Express 40% 39% 16% 1%
11 Feb Harris The Observer 39% 40% 15% 1%
8 Feb Gallup The Daily Telegraph 40% 37.5% 17.5% 2.5%
7 Feb ICM The Guardian 40% 40% 16% Tie
6 Feb NOP The Independent on Sunday 38% 42% 15% 4%
3 Feb Harris Daily Express 39% 40% 17% 1%
28 Jan Gallup The Daily Telegraph 42.5% 37.5% 14% 5%
26 Jan Gallup The Daily Telegraph 38% 39.5% 17.5% 1.5%
25 Jan Audience Selection N/A 40% 40% 15% Tie
23 Jan ICM Daily Mail 41% 40% 13% 1%
21 Jan Harris Daily Express 41% 40% 14% 1%
21 Jan Gallup The Daily Telegraph 40% 38% 16.5% 2%
17 Jan MORI The Sunday Times 42% 39% 16% 3%
16 Jan ICM Sunday Express 41% 42% 14% 1%
13 Jan Harris The Observer 42% 43% 13% 1%
13 Jan Gallup The Daily Telegraph 42% 37.5% 16% 4.5%
11 Jan NOP The Independent 40% 43% 13% 3%
8 Jan ICM The Guardian 42% 41% 12% 1%
8 Jan NOP The Independent on Sunday 40% 45% 12% 5%

1991

[edit]
Survey
end date 		Pollster Client Con Lab Lib Dem Lead
27 Dec MORI The Sunday Times 38% 44% 14% 6%
15 Dec Gallup The Sunday Telegraph 42% 41.5% 13% 0.5%
13 Dec NOP The Independent on Sunday 41% 40% 14% 1%
7 Dec ICM The Guardian 39% 42% 14% 3%
5 Dec MORI The Times 40% 43% 12% 3%
2 Dec Gallup The Daily Telegraph 39.5% 37% 19% 2.5%
2 Dec Audience Selection N/A 39% 40% 16% 1%
25 Nov MORI The Sunday Times 40% 42% 15% 2%
25 Nov NOP The Independent 40% 41% 15% 1%
23 Nov MORI The Sunday Times 41% 43% 13% 2%
23 Nov ICM Daily Mail 39% 41% 16% 2%
14 Nov Harris The Observer 39% 44% 13% 5%
9 Nov ICM The Guardian 41% 43% 13% 2%
7 Nov Hemsworth, Kincardine and Deeside and Langbaurgh by-elections
4 Nov Gallup The Daily Telegraph 36% 44% 15.5% 8%
1 Nov MORI The Sunday Times 42% 41% 13% 1%
28 Oct Audience Selection N/A 37% 42% 16% 5%
27 Oct Harris The Observer 39% 45% 12% 6%
26 Oct ICM Daily Mail 40% 42% 13% 2%
21 Oct MORI The Sunday Times 39% 45% 12% 6%
21 Oct NOP The Independent 39% 45% 12% 6%
17 Oct Harris The Observer 39% 46% 12% 7%
12 Oct ICM The Guardian 41% 43% 12% 2%
5 Oct NOP The Independent on Sunday 39% 46% 13% 7%
4 Oct Gallup The Daily Telegraph 39.5% 41.5% 15% 2%
3 Oct ICM Press Association 40% 42% 13% 2%
30 Sep Gallup The Daily Telegraph 42% 38% 15% 4%
30 Sep Audience Selection N/A 41% 37% 14% 4%
28 Sep ICM Daily Mail 40% 42% 14% 2%
26 Sep Harris The Observer 40% 41% 13% 1%
26 Sep NOP The Mail on Sunday 40% 39% 16% 1%
24 Sep MORI The Sunday Times 39% 39% 17% Tie
23 Sep Gallup The Sunday Telegraph 40% 38.5% 16% 1.5%
23 Sep NOP The Independent 39% 42% 14% 3%
20 Sep MORI N/A 39% 43% 14% 4%
14 Sep ICM The Guardian 39% 39% 17% Tie
13 Sep ICM Sunday Express 41% 37% 17% 4%
12 Sep Harris The Observer 43% 38% 16% 5%
7 Sep NOP The Independent on Sunday 41% 39% 15% 2%
2 Sep Gallup The Daily Telegraph 39.5% 35% 19.5% 4.5%
27 Aug MORI The Sunday Times 42% 40% 14% 2%
24 Aug ICM Daily Mail 40% 43% 12% 3%
19 Aug NOP The Independent 38% 44% 12% 6%
15 Aug Harris The Observer 40% 41% 14% 1%
10 Aug ICM The Guardian 36% 45% 16% 9%
5 Aug Gallup The Daily Telegraph 36% 41% 16.5% 5%
1 Aug Audience Selection N/A 39% 40% 15% 1%
29 Jul Audience Selection N/A 35% 43% 15% 8%
24 Jul ICM Daily Express 38% 44% 13% 6%
22 Jul MORI N/A 38% 43% 15% 5%
20 Jul ICM Daily Mail 37% 44% 16% 7%
18 Jul Harris The Observer 39% 42% 14% 3%
15 Jul NOP The Independent 39% 43% 13% 4%
6 Jul ICM The Guardian 37% 43% 16% 6%
4 Jul Liverpool Walton by-election
1 Jul Gallup The Daily Telegraph 37% 40.5% 17% 3.5%
27 Jun NOP The Mail on Sunday 41% 42% 13% 1%
24 Jun MORI N/A 39% 41% 15% 2%
21 Jun ICM Daily Mail 35% 44% 17% 9%
21 Jun MORI Sunday Express 39% 38% 17% 1%
17 Jun NOP The Independent 37% 45% 14% 8%
13 Jun Harris The Observer 35% 45% 16% 10%
8 Jun ICM The Guardian 34% 44% 17% 10%
3 Jun Gallup The Daily Telegraph 33.5% 41.5% 21% 8%
2 Jun Harris TV-AM 36% 43% 15% 7%
1 Jun NMR The Independent on Sunday 37% 43% 16% 6%
1 Jun Audience Selection N/A 41% 42% 13% 1%
28 May MORI The Sunday Times 37% 43% 16% 6%
25 May ICM Daily Mail 37% 41% 16% 4%
20 May NOP The Independent 36% 44% 15% 8%
18 May Audience Selection N/A 39% 39% 19% Tie
16 May Harris The Observer 38% 42% 16% 4%
16 May Monmouth by-election
11 May ICM The Guardian 37% 43% 16% 6%
6 May Gallup The Daily Telegraph 38.5% 38% 18% 0.5%
2 May 1991 local elections[5]
29 Apr Audience Selection N/A 43% 38% 14% 5%
27 Apr NMR The Independent on Sunday 47% 37% 14% 10%
27 Apr ICM Daily Mail 39% 41% 14% 2%
26 Apr Harris Sunday Express 41% 41% 14% Tie
26 Apr Gallup The Sunday Telegraph 42% 39% 14% 3%
22 Apr MORI The Sunday Times 42% 40% 15% 2%
22 Apr NOP The Independent 41% 41% 13% Tie
18 Apr Harris The Observer 40% 40% 14% Tie
6 Apr ICM The Guardian 39% 43% 13% 4%
4 Apr Neath by-election
3 Apr ICM Daily Express 38% 40% 19% 2%
30 Mar Gallup The Daily Telegraph 39.5% 34.5% 18% 5%
25 Mar MORI The Sunday Times 40% 40% 16% Tie
24 Mar ICM Daily Mail 41% 40% 15% 1%
22 Mar MORI Sunday Express 38% 44% 15% 6%
21 Mar ICM Daily Express 37% 40% 14% 3%
14 Mar Harris The Observer 40% 39% 17% 1%
12 Mar Audience Selection N/A 44% 32% 19% 12%
11 Mar NOP The Independent 38% 39% 18% 1%
9 Mar ICM The Guardian 39% 40% 16% 1%
8 Mar MORI Sunday Express 41% 37% 16% 4%
7 Mar Ribble Valley by-election
5 Mar NOP N/A 43% 38% 11% 5%
4 Mar Harris The Observer 47% 39% 9% 8%
1 Mar Gallup The Daily Telegraph 45% 36.5% 13% 8.5%
25 Feb MORI The Sunday Times 44% 41% 11% 3%
23 Feb ICM Daily Mail 44% 43% 9% 1%
16 Feb NMR The Independent on Sunday 47% 40% 8% 7%
14 Feb Harris The Observer 46% 42% 8% 4%
13 Feb NOP The Independent 45% 42% 9% 3%
9 Feb ICM The Guardian 44% 42% 9% 2%
4 Feb Gallup The Daily Telegraph 42% 42.5% 10% 0.5%
4 Feb Audience Selection N/A 46% 39% 8% 7%
3 Feb Harris The Observer 47% 39% 9% 8%
28 Jan Audience Selection N/A 51% 34% 8% 17%
21 Jan MORI The Sunday Times 46% 41% 9% 5%
17 Jan Harris The Observer 46% 41% 9% 5%
14 Jan NOP The Independent 43% 44% 8% 1%
12 Jan ICM The Guardian 43% 43% 10% Tie
11 Jan Harris ITN 47% 41% 7% 6%
10 Jan MORI The Times 44% 42% 11% 2%
7 Jan Gallup The Daily Telegraph 43% 41.5% 10% 1.5%
6 Jan Audience Selection N/A 39% 43% 11% 4%

1990

[edit]
Survey
end date 		Pollster Client Con Lab Lib Dem SDP Lead
28 Dec MORI The Sunday Times 41% 45% 9% – 4%
13 Dec Harris The Observer 44% 40% 10% – 4%
10 Dec Gallup The Daily Telegraph 43% 40.5% 10.5% – 2.5%
10 Dec NOP The Independent 47% 42% 7% – 5%
8 Dec ICM The Guardian 45% 43% 9% – 2%
3 Dec Audience Selection N/A 49% 36% 9% – 13%
1 Dec NMR The Independent on Sunday 48% 40% 8% – 8%
29 Nov Paisley North & Paisley South by-elections
28 Nov Harris ITN 49% 38% 9% – 11%
27 Nov John Major is elected leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister[6]
26 Nov Audience Selection N/A 44% 37% 12% – 7%
26 Nov Gallup The Daily Telegraph 44% 41% 10% – 3%
26 Nov NOP The Independent 49% 38% 9% – 11%
23 Nov Gallup The Sunday Telegraph 43% 41.5% 11% – 1.5%
23 Nov ICM The Sunday Correspondent 46% 40% 10% – 6%
22 Nov Margaret Thatcher resigns as Prime Minister[7]
19 Nov MORI The Sunday Times 38% 46% 12% – 8%
19 Nov Gallup The Daily Telegraph 36% 44.5% 10.5% – 8.5%
19 Nov NOP The Independent 40% 45% 11% – 5%
18 Nov Gallup The Sunday Telegraph 35% 48% 11% – 13%
17 Nov NMR The Independent on Sunday 42% 44% 11% – 2%
16 Nov MORI The Sunday Times 37% 48% 11% – 11%
16 Nov ICM The Sunday Correspondent 37% 49% 9% – 12%
15 Nov Harris ITN 34% 49% 13% – 15%
15 Nov Harris The Observer 34% 49% 13% – 15%
15 Nov MORI The Times 41% 45% 10% – 4%
14 Nov NOP The Independent 32% 46% 15% – 14%
10 Nov ICM The Guardian 33% 49% 13% – 16%
8 Nov Bootle & Bradford North by-elections
3 Nov NMR The Independent on Sunday 32% 49% 13% – 17%
3 Nov NOP The Mail on Sunday 30% 51% 12% – 21%
29 Oct Audience Selection N/A 36% 40% 13% – 4%
29 Oct Gallup The Daily Telegraph 31.5% 46% 15.5% – 14.5%
28 Oct Harris The Observer 32% 48% 14% – 16%
27 Oct ICM The Sunday Correspondent 34% 44% 14% – 10%
22 Oct MORI The Sunday Times 33% 49% 14% – 16%
22 Oct NOP The Independent 35% 45% 15% – 10%
18 Oct Eastbourne by-election
13 Oct ICM The Guardian 36% 49% 9% – 13%
1 Oct Gallup The Sunday Telegraph 31.5% 46% 14% – 14.5%
29 Sep NMR The Independent on Sunday 33% 52% 10% – 19%
27 Sep Knowsley South by-election
24 Sep MORI The Sunday Times 38% 45% 12% – 7%
24 Sep NOP The Independent 39% 44% 12% – 5%
22 Sep ICM The Sunday Correspondent 35% 44% 12% – 9%
20 Sep Harris The Observer 38% 46% 10% – 8%
8 Sep ICM The Guardian 37% 50% 8% – 13%
8 Sep Gallup The Daily Telegraph 31.5% 46% 14% – 14.5%
3 Sep Gallup The Daily Telegraph 35.5% 48% 8.5% – 12.5%
3 Sep Audience Selection N/A 38% 45% 6% – 7%
1 Sep Audience Selection N/A 32% 45% 15% – 13%
25 Aug ICM The Sunday Correspondent 37% 51% 6% – 14%
23 Aug Harris The Observer 38% 46% 10% – 8%
20 Aug MORI The Sunday Times 35% 50% 10% – 15%
13 Aug NOP The Independent 36% 48% 7% – 12%
11 Aug ICM The Guardian 38% 49% 9% – 11%
30 Jul Audience Selection N/A 35% 46% 9% – 11%
30 Jul Gallup The Daily Telegraph 33.5% 48% 11.5% – 14.5%
23 Jul MORI The Sunday Times 38% 46% 10% – 8%
21 Jul ICM The Sunday Correspondent 36% 52% 7% – 16%
19 Jul Harris The Observer 37% 49% 7% – 12%
16 Jul NOP The Independent 37% 50% 7% – 13%
7 Jul ICM The Guardian 35% 51% 8% – 16%
2 Jul Gallup The Daily Telegraph 36% 47% 9% – 11%
2 Jul Audience Selection N/A 39% 44% 7% – 5%
23 Jun ICM The Sunday Correspondent 36% 53% 5% – 17%
21 Jun Harris The Observer 37% 48% 8% – 11%
18 Jun NOP The Independent 37% 48% 8% – 11%
18 Jun MORI The Sunday Times 38% 49% 8% – 11%
9 Jun ICM The Guardian 35% 54% 5% – 19%
8 Jun NMR The Independent on Sunday 36% 49% 9% – 13%
4 Jun Gallup The Daily Telegraph 29.5% 53% 7.5% 2.5% 23.5%
28 May Audience Selection N/A 37% 47% 5% 3% 10%
26 May ICM The Sunday Correspondent 36% 50% 5% 1% 14%
24 May Harris The Observer 32% 50% 9% 1% 18%
24 May Bootle by-election
21 May NOP The Independent 34% 49% 8% 2% 15%
21 May MORI The Sunday Times 35% 48% 8% 4% 13%
17 May Upper Bann by-election
12 May ICM The Guardian 32% 50% 8% 4% 18%
4 May NOP The Mail on Sunday 34% 47% 8% 3% 13%
3 May 1990 local elections[8]
30 Apr Audience Selection N/A 32% 49% 6% 4% 17%
30 Apr Gallup The Daily Telegraph 32% 47% 7.5% 4% 15%
28 Apr NOP The Independent on Sunday 31% 51% 7% 3% 20%
28 Apr ICM The Sunday Correspondent 30% 53% 8% 2% 23%
24 Apr MORI The Sunday Times 31% 54% 6% 3% 23%
22 Apr NOP The Independent 29% 54% 7% 3% 25%
19 Apr Harris The Observer 32% 54% 7% 1% 22%
7 Apr NMR The Independent on Sunday 30% 54% 5% 4% 24%
7 Apr ICM The Guardian 32% 56% 4% 2% 24%
6 Apr ICM N/A 32% 54% 5% 2% 22%
2 Apr Gallup The Daily Telegraph 28% 52.5% 7.5% 3.5% 24.5%
26 Mar Audience Selection N/A 30% 51% 6% 3% 21%
24 Mar NOP The Independent on Sunday 33% 52% 6% 3% 19%
23 Mar ICM N/A 28% 55% 7% 2% 27%
22 Mar Harris The Observer 29% 57% 6% 3% 28%
22 Mar Mid Staffordshire by-election
20 Mar MORI The Sunday Times 31% 54% 6% 2% 23%
12 Mar NOP The Independent 33% 51% 6% 3% 18%
10 Mar ICM The Guardian 31% 52% 5% 4% 21%
26 Feb Gallup The Daily Telegraph 31% 49.5% 7% 3.5% 18.5%
26 Feb Audience Selection N/A 34% 46% 7% 3% 12%
24 Feb ICM N/A 33% 52% 6% 3% 19%
22 Feb Harris The Observer 36% 48% 8% 2% 12%
19 Feb MORI The Sunday Times 34% 51% 5% 4% 17%
12 Feb NOP The Independent 36% 48% 6% 3% 12%
10 Feb ICM The Guardian 36% 51% 5% 3% 15%
29 Jan Gallup The Daily Telegraph 32.5% 48% 8% 3% 15.5%
29 Jan Audience Selection N/A 38% 47% 5% 4% 9%
27 Jan ICM N/A 37% 48% 4% 3% 11%
25 Jan Harris The Observer 36% 49% 6% 2% 13%
22 Jan MORI The Sunday Times 36% 48% 5% 3% 12%
18 Jan Harris The Observer 37% 48% 6% 3% 11%
15 Jan NOP The Independent 40% 44% 7% – 4%
13 Jan ICM The Guardian 38% 47% 5% 3% 9%
8 Jan Gallup The Daily Telegraph 35% 45.5% 7.5% 3.5% 10.5%

1989

[edit]
Survey
end date 		Pollster Client Con Lab Lib Dem SDP Lead
28 Dec MORI The Sunday Times 39% 46% 6% 3% 7%
18 Dec Audience Selection N/A 40% 42% 6% 4% 2%
17 Dec ICM The Sunday Correspondent 38% 49% 4% 3% 11%
14 Dec Harris The Observer 39% 46% 6% 1% 7%
8 Dec ICM The Guardian 37% 49% 4% 3% 12%
4 Dec NOP N/A 38% 45% 7% – 7%
4 Dec Gallup The Daily Telegraph 37.5% 43.5% 9% 3% 6%
27 Nov MORI N/A 42% 46% 5% 3% 4%
27 Nov Audience Selection N/A 37% 44% 4% 3% 7%
26 Nov MORI The Sunday Times 37% 51% 4% 3% 14%
25 Nov ICM The Sunday Correspondent 38% 48% 3% 4% 10%
23 Nov Harris The Observer 36% 47% 9% 1% 11%
13 Nov NOP N/A 34% 46% 9% – 12%
11 Nov ICM The Guardian 36% 49% 6% 3% 13%
31 Oct Harris BBC 37% 50% 6% 2% 13%
30 Oct Audience Selection N/A 33% 50% 4% 2% 17%
30 Oct Gallup The Daily Telegraph 35% 44% 8% 2.5% 9%
29 Oct MORI The Sunday Times 39% 46% 0% – 7%
28 Oct NOP The Mail on Sunday 41% 47% 6% – 6%
23 Oct MORI The Sunday Times 38% 48% 5% 3% 10%
21 Oct ICM The Sunday Correspondent 35% 50% 4% 3% 15%
19 Oct Harris The Observer 38% 48% 6% 1% 10%
9 Oct Gallup The Daily Telegraph 38% 47.5% 4.5% 2.5% 9.5%
7 Oct ICM The Guardian 39% 49% 4% 2% 10%
5 Oct Harris The Observer 38% 49% 5% 2% 11%
4 Oct NOP Evening Standard 37% 46% 5% – 9%
3 Oct ICM Press Association 37% 45% 4% 3% 8%
3 Oct Audience Selection N/A 37% 39% 6% 3% 2%
2 Oct Gallup The Daily Telegraph 35% 41.5% 8.5% 5% 6.5%
28 Sep Harris The Observer 38% 45% 5% 3% 7%
26 Sep MORI The Sunday Times 38% 43% 6% 3% 5%
25 Sep Gallup The Sunday Telegraph 36.5% 42% 7.5% 2% 5.5%
25 Sep NOP The Mail on Sunday 34% 46% 7% – 12%
23 Sep ICM The Sunday Correspondent 39% 45% 4% 2% 6%
20 Sep Harris The Observer 39% 42% 6% 3% 3%
14 Sep Harris The Observer 37% 45% 6% 3% 8%
9 Sep ICM The Guardian 36% 46% 7% 4% 10%
4 Sep Gallup The Daily Telegraph 36.5% 43% 6.5% 3% 6.5%
4 Sep NOP The Independent 38% 40% 8% 2% 4%
28 Aug Audience Selection N/A 37% 42% 5% 4% 5%
26 Aug ICM The Sunday Correspondent 38% 46% 6% 3% 8%
24 Aug Harris The Observer 37% 45% 7% 2% 8%
21 Aug NOP N/A 40% 41% 7% 1% 1%
21 Aug MORI The Sunday Times 40% 45% 4% 3% 5%
12 Aug ICM The Guardian 36% 44% 6% 3% 8%
31 Jul Audience Selection N/A 38% 41% 4% 5% 3%
26 Jul MORI The Sunday Times 36% 45% 4% 4% 9%
20 Jul Harris The Observer 37% 44% 6% 3% 7%
10 Jul NOP N/A 36% 42% 7% 2% 6%
8 Jul ICM The Guardian 38% 42% 5% 4% 4%
7 Jul Gallup The Daily Telegraph 34% 44.5% 5.5% 4.5% 10.5%
3 Jul Gallup The Daily Telegraph 34% 47% 6% 3.5% 13%
3 Jul Audience Selection N/A 35% 43% 4% 3% 8%
27 Jun MORI The Sunday Times 37% 47% 4% 3% 10%
22 Jun Harris The Observer 34% 48% 6% 2% 14%
15 Jun Glasgow Central & Vauxhall by-elections
15 Jun 1989 European Parliament election[9]
12 Jun NOP N/A 40% 42% 8% 4% 2%
10 Jun ICM The Guardian 38% 42% 8% 4% 4%
10 Jun MORI The Times 39% 44% 7% 4% 5%
5 Jun Gallup The Daily Telegraph 36.5% 43.5% 8% 3% 7%
29 May Audience Selection N/A 41% 45% 6% 4% 4%
23 May Harris The Observer 46% 41% 7% 2% 5%
22 May NOP N/A 42% 41% 8% 3% 1%
22 May MORI The Sunday Times 41% 43% 7% 4% 2%
17 May 1989 Northern Ireland local elections
13 May ICM The Guardian 43% 43% 8% 3% Tie
4 May Vale of Glamorgan by-election[10]
4 May 1989 local elections[11]
1 May Gallup The Daily Telegraph 40.5% 37.5% 10% 7% 3%
30 Apr Audience Selection N/A 42% 38% 7% 9% 4%
24 Apr NOP N/A 43% 37% 9% 4% 6%
24 Apr MORI The Sunday Times 41% 41% 9% 6% Tie
20 Apr Harris The Observer 42% 39% 11% 4% 3%
8 Apr ICM The Guardian 44% 40% 7% 6% 4%
3 Apr Gallup The Daily Telegraph 37.5% 40% 10% 8% 2.5%
27 Mar MORI The Times 43% 39% 8% 6% 4%
23 Mar Harris The Observer 41% 41% 9% 3% Tie
20 Mar NOP N/A 42% 37% 0% – 5%
19 Mar MORI The Sunday Times 41% 40% 9% 6% 1%
19 Mar MORI The Sunday Times 44% 40% 6% 6% 4%
13 Mar ICM The Guardian 41% 39% 8% 7% 2%
5 Mar MORI BBC 41% 37% 9% 4% 4%
28 Feb MORI N/A 42% 41% 8% 4% 1%
28 Feb MORI The Sunday Times 42% 39% 9% 7% 3%
27 Feb Audience Selection N/A 44% 35% 7% 11% 9%
27 Feb Gallup The Daily Telegraph 37.5% 37.5% 11.5% 8.5% Tie
23 Feb Harris The Observer 41% 42% 10% 3% 1%
23 Feb Pontypridd & Richmond by-elections
20 Feb NOP N/A 41% 37% 11% 4% 4%
20 Feb Gallup The Sunday Telegraph 39% 39% 11% 5% Tie
13 Feb Gallup The Daily Telegraph 40.5% 39% 11.5% 4.5% 1.5%
11 Feb ICM The Guardian 42% 39% 7% 7% 3%
30 Jan MORI The Sunday Times 47% 36% 8% 5% 11%
30 Jan Audience Selection N/A 44% 39% 8% 5% 5%
29 Jan Harris BBC 50% 37% 6% – 13%
23 Jan NOP N/A 46% 34% 10% 3% 12%
19 Jan Harris The Observer 47% 37% 10% 4% 10%
16 Jan Gallup The Daily Telegraph 42.5% 34% 14% 5.5% 8.5%
16 Jan ICM The Guardian 44% 40% 8% 4% 4%
15 Jan Harris/Channel 4 N/A 44% 41% 10% – 3%

1988

[edit]
Survey
end date 		Pollster Client Con Lab SLD SDP Lead
31 Dec Audience Selection N/A 45% 37% 8% 6% 8%
29 Dec MORI The Sunday Times 46% 36% 6% 7% 10%
15 Dec Epping Forest by-election
12 Dec Gallup The Daily Telegraph 43% 32% 13% 6.5% 11%
6 Dec Marplan The Guardian 45% 39% 8% 4% 6%
2 Dec NOP N/A 41% 36% 11% 4% 5%
30 Nov MORI The Sunday Times 45% 37% 8% 6% 8%
30 Nov MORI N/A 44% 39% 8% 6% 5%
28 Nov Audience Selection N/A 40% 39% 9% 6% 1%
24 Nov Harris The Observer 44% 39% 9% 3% 5%
14 Nov Gallup The Daily Telegraph 42.5% 36% 12.5% 4.5% 6.5%
10 Nov Glasgow Govan by-election
7 Nov NOP N/A 45% 36% 10% 4% 9%
7 Nov Marplan The Guardian 42% 42% 8% 5% Tie
31 Oct MORI The Sunday Times 44% 39% 8% 6% 5%
31 Oct Audience Selection N/A 46% 35% 7% 6% 11%
24 Oct Gallup The Daily Telegraph 45.5% 34% 12.5% 5% 11.5%
20 Oct Harris The Observer 49% 40% 7% 2% 9%
12 Oct NOP N/A 46% 36% 9% 4% 10%
11 Oct Marplan N/A 45% 40% 8% 2% 5%
11 Oct Marplan The Guardian 44% 40% 7% 5% 4%
10 Oct MORI N/A 46% 39% 8% 4% 7%
29 Sep Harris TV-AM 48% 36% 11% 2% 12%
26 Sep MORI The Sunday Times 44% 39% 8% 6% 5%
22 Sep Harris The Observer 47% 38% 8% 5% 9%
14 Sep Marplan The Guardian 44% 42% 9% 3% 2%
14 Sep NOP N/A 46% 38% 8% 3% 8%
12 Sep Audience Selection N/A 42% 40% 8% 6% 2%
12 Sep Gallup The Daily Telegraph 43% 36.5% 12.5% 5% 6.5%
22 Aug MORI The Sunday Times 50% 36% 8% 4% 14%
15 Aug Gallup The Daily Telegraph 45.5% 33.5% 10.5% 6.5% 12.5%
9 Aug Marplan The Guardian 45% 41% 7% 4% 4%
29 Jul Paddy Ashdown is elected leader of the Social and Liberal Democrats[12][13]
25 Jul NOP N/A 46% 36% 10% 4% 10%
25 Jul MORI The Sunday Times 46% 41% 8% 4% 5%
21 Jul Harris The Observer 46% 41% 9% 3% 5%
18 Jul Gallup The Daily Telegraph 41.5% 39% 9% 7% 2.5%
14 Jul Kensington by-election
12 Jul Marplan The Guardian 45% 43% 6% 4% 2%
11 Jul MORI N/A 48% 38% 7% 5% 10%
3 Jul Harris TV-AM 47% 38% 9% 3% 9%
28 Jun MORI The Sunday Times 48% 38% 7% 5% 10%
28 Jun Audience Selection N/A 45% 38% 8% 5% 7%
27 Jun NOP N/A 49% 34% 10% 4% 15%
23 Jun Harris The Observer 48% 36% 9% 3% 12%
13 Jun Gallup The Daily Telegraph 42% 43% 7% 4% 1%
11 Jun MORI N/A 47% 40% 7% 4% 7%
7 Jun Marplan The Guardian 47% 42% 5% 3% 5%
4 Jun Harris TV-AM 43% 40% 12% 2% 3%
1 Jun MORI The Sunday Times 44% 40% 7% 6% 4%
29 May Audience Selection N/A 40% 43% 6% 8% 3%
23 May NOP N/A 47% 37% 8% 4% 10%
19 May Harris The Observer 44% 41% 10% 2% 3%
16 May Gallup The Daily Telegraph 45% 36% 8.5% 6% 9%
10 May Marplan The Guardian 44% 42% 7% 4% 1%
5 May 1988 local elections[14]
2 May Harris TV-AM 43% 38% 11% – 5%
26 Apr MORI The Sunday Times 44% 42% 6% 5% 1%
21 Apr Harris The Observer 44% 39% 10% 5% 5%
18 Apr Gallup The Daily Telegraph 40.5% 41.5% 11% 4% 1%
12 Apr Marplan The Guardian 43% 42% 8% 5% 1%
11 Apr NOP N/A 45% 36% 15% – 9%
28 Mar MORI The Sunday Times 46% 37% 8% 6% 9%
24 Mar Harris The Observer 46% 39% 11% 1% 7%
21 Mar Gallup The Daily Telegraph 42% 36.5% 13% 6.5% 5.5%
20 Mar MORI N/A 46% 39% 6% 7% 7%
13 Mar Audience Selection N/A 45% 40% 11% – 5%
8 Mar Marplan The Guardian 43% 42% 14% – 1%
3 Mar The Liberal Party and the SDP merge to form the Social and Liberal Democrats[15]
3 Mar Harris The Observer 47% 36% 12% 2% 11%
1 Mar MORI The Sunday Times 46% 38% 14% – 8%
29 Feb Harris N/A 44% 43% 12% – 1%
15 Feb Gallup The Daily Telegraph 46% 36% 15% – 10%
14 Feb Audience Selection N/A 45% 41% 11% – 4%
9 Feb Marplan The Guardian 45% 41% 8% 4% 4%
8 Feb NOP N/A 45% 37% 14% – 8%
26 Jan MORI The Sunday Times 50% 36% 12% – 14%
18 Jan Gallup The Daily Telegraph 45.5% 37% 15% – 7.5%
11 Jan NOP N/A 47% 35% 16% – 12%
11 Jan Marplan The Guardian 42% 40% 17% – 2%

1987

[edit]
Survey
end date 		Pollster Client Con Lab All Lead
30 Dec MORI The Sunday Times 48% 36% 15% 12%
14 Dec NOP N/A 47% 35% 15% 12%
8 Dec Marplan The Guardian 47% 37% 13% 10%
7 Dec Gallup The Daily Telegraph 46.5% 34.5% 16% 12%
30 Nov NOP N/A 49% 34% 15% 15%
25 Nov MORI The Sunday Times 50% 38% 11% 12%
16 Nov Gallup The Daily Telegraph 46.5% 33% 17% 13.5%
3 Nov NOP N/A 45% 36% 15% 9%
26 Oct MORI The Sunday Times 47% 37% 14% 10%
19 Oct Gallup The Daily Telegraph 52% 31.5% 13.5% 20.5%
19 Oct MORI N/A 50% 34% 14% 16%
13 Oct Marplan The Guardian 45% 39% 13% 6%
30 Sep MORI The Sunday Times 49% 36% 12% 13%
28 Sep NOP N/A 50% 34% 13% 16%
21 Sep Gallup The Sunday Telegraph 48% 35.5% 14% 12.5%
20 Sep Harris The Observer 47% 35% 16% 12%
7 Sep Gallup The Daily Telegraph 44% 33% 20% 11%
3 Sep NOP N/A 49% 33% 16% 16%
26 Aug MORI The Sunday Times 48% 36% 14% 12%
24 Aug NOP N/A 48% 33% 17% 15%
17 Aug Gallup The Daily Telegraph 45.5% 35.5% 17.5% 10%
28 Jul MORI The Sunday Times 49% 33% 17% 16%
16 Jul Harris The Observer 48% 33% 17% 15%
13 Jul Gallup The Daily Telegraph 44.5% 33% 20.5% 11.5%
2 Jul Harris TV-AM 42% 36% 20% 6%
1 Jul MORI The Sunday Times 49% 31% 17% 18%
29 Jun NOP N/A 42% 33% 23% 9%
11 Jun 1987 general election 43.3% 31.5% 23.1% 11.8%

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Heath, Anthony; Jowell, Roger; Curtice, John (29 May 1994). "How did Labour lose in '92?: The most authoritative study of the last general election is published tomorrow. Here, its authors present their conclusions and explode the myths about the greatest upset since 1945". The Independent. Archived from the original on 24 May 2022. Retrieved 24 March 2016.
  2. ^ Firth, David. "Exit polling explained". University of Warwick, Statistics Department.
  3. ^ "UK Polling Report". ukpollingreport.co.uk. Retrieved 26 November 2017.
  4. ^ "General Election Results, 1992" (PDF).
  5. ^ Timmins, Nicholas; Wolmar, Christian (3 May 1991). "Tory council losses rule out June election". The Independent. p. 1.
  6. ^ White, Michael (28 November 1990). "Major: we unite to win". The Guardian. p. 1.
  7. ^ "Margaret Thatcher resigns".
  8. ^ Timmins, Nicholas; Wolmar, Christian (4 May 1990). "Labour Sweeps to local poll gains". The Independent. p. 1.
  9. ^ Bevins, Anthony; Hughes, Colin (19 June 1989). "Labour triumphs in European poll". The Independent. p. 1.
  10. ^ Brown, Colin; Hughes, Colin (6 May 1989). "Labour Victory sends warning to Thatcher". The Independent. p. 1.
  11. ^ Travis, Alan (5 May 1989). "Polls boost Labour's prospects". The Guardian. p. 1.
  12. ^ Naughtie, James (29 July 2013). "From the archive, 29 July 1988: Paddy Ashdown elected leader of the Social and Liberal Democrats". The Guardian. Retrieved 21 July 2021.
  13. ^ Bevins, Anthony (29 July 1988). "Victorious Ashdown seeks to replace Labour". The Independent. p. 1.
  14. ^ Hughes, Colin (6 May 1988). "Labour makes strong gains in local elections". The Independent. p. 1.
  15. ^ Bevins, Anthony (3 March 1988). "Steel dismisses Owen 'splinter'". The Guardian. p. 6.
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