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Opinion polling for the 2016 Croatian parliamentary election

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Opinion polling for the 2016 Croatian parliamentary election started immediately after the 2015 general election. Monthly party ratings are conducted by Ipsos Puls and Promocija Plus.

Exit polls

[edit]
Date Polling Organisation/Client People's Coalition HDZ Coalition Most Živi zid IDS BM 365
NS-R 		HDSSB
HKS 		Pametno
Za grad
11 September 2016 Ipsos puls 57 57 12 7 3 2 1 1

Coalition standings

[edit]

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date of publication, as opposed to the date the survey's fieldwork was done, which can be seen in the second table. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's color. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty. The client can be seen in the second table.

Date Polling Firm People's Coalition HDZ Most Živi zid MB 365
NS-R 		ORaH, HL, NH-PS IDS Others Undecided Lead
11 Sep General Election Results 33.2 36.3 9.9 6.2 4.0 - 2.3 11.0 - 3.1
7 Sep CRO Demoskop 34.5 27.2 8.8 6.0 3.1 1.7 1.6 5.6 11.5 7.3
4 Aug CRO Demoskop 34.4 26.4 10.4 6.4 2.1 1.7 1.4 5.7 11.5 8.0
25 July: HDZ announced it would participate in the elections without national coalition
Date Polling Firm People's Coalition Patriotic Coalition Most Živi zid MB 365 ORaH IDS Others Undecided Lead
25 Jul Ipsos Puls 34.2 29.6 11.4 6.8 4.1 0.6 1.7 5.6 6.0 4.6
5 Jul CRO Demoskop 36.1 25.3 9.8 5.3 2.0 0.7 1.2 7.1 12.5 10.8
28 Jun Ipsos Puls 32.2 23.1 12.1 7.7 2.3 - 1.4 10.1 11.1 9.1
22 May - 9 Jun Promocija plus [1] 33.6 26.9 7.1 8.2 2.6 0.9 1.6 7.0 12.1 6.7
4 Jun CRO Demoskop 34.7 28.5 6.4 7.4 2.1 0.6 1.0 6.3 12.8 6.2
25 May Ipsos Puls 31.6 31.2 7.9 7.8 4.3 - 1.4 6.7 7.6 0.4
6 May CRO Demoskop 33.6 34.7 5.7 7.3 1.6 0.8 1.1 3.7 11.5 1.1
23 Apr Ipsos Puls 32.1 33.3 6.9 6.8 4.6 1.0 1.6 6.6 7.2 1.2
5 Apr CRO Demoskop 31.4 31.9 6.0 5.7 2.0 1.1 1.5 4.9 15.7 0.5
26 Mar Ipsos Puls 31.5 34.9 7.6 6.3 3.7 1.1 1.6 5.9 7.3 3.4
5 Mar CRO Demoskop 30.9 31.4 8.9 4.4 2.3 1.6 1.8 5.6 13.1 0.5
25 Feb Ipsos Puls 28.9 33.2 10.2 6.0 2.8 1.5 2.0 6.8 8.6 4.3
5 Feb CRO Demoskop 32.3 32.7 9.1 3.2 1.4 1.6 1.6 6.0 11.9 0.4
25 Jan Ipsos Puls 29.1 32.5 14.5 4.0 4.2 - 2.0 7.1 6.7 3.4
8 Jan CRO Demoskop 32.1 31.2 11.7 3.2 2.0 1.4 1.2 5.1 12.1 0.9
2016
23 Dec Ipsos Puls 29.2 33.8 15.5 4.4 3.5 1.0 1.7 5.3 5.7 4.6
4 Dec CRO Demoskop 30.3 29.4 15.4 3.3 2.3 1.8 1.8 4.9 10.7 0.9
25 Nov Ipsos Puls 30.2 29.6 19.1 3.8 2.3 1.2 1.7 6.1 6.0 0.6
8 Nov General Election 33.3 33.3 13.5 4.2 3.3 1.7 1.8 8.9 - Tie

Individual party standings

[edit]
Date(s) conducted Polling organization/client Sample size SDP HDZ Most Živi zid MB 365 HNS HSS ORaH IDS Others Undecided Lead
1-3 Aug Promocija Plus/CRO Demoskop 1.300 29.6 26.0 10.5 5.9 1.7 2.9 2.1 0.9 1.1 7.7 11.6 3.6
1-18 Jul Ipsos Puls/Dnevnik Nova TV 974 29.2 28.3 11.4 6.8 4.1 1.3 2.7 0.6 1.2 8.4 6 0.9
1-3 Jul Promocija Plus/CRO Demoskop 1300 31.8 22.7 9.8 5.3 2.0 3.1 2.8 0.7 1.2 8.1 12.5 9.1
25-28 Jun Ipsos Puls/Dnevnik Nova TV 1219 30.9 21.5 12.1 7.7 2.3 1.3 1.5 - 1.4 10.2 11.1 9.4
1-3 Jun Promocija Plus/CRO Demoskop 1300 30.5 26.3 6.4 7.4 2.1 3.1 2.8 0.6 1.0 6.3 12.8 4.2
1–21 May Ipsos Puls/Dnevnik Nova TV 976 29.1 28.7 7.9 7.8 4.3 1.5 1.4 - 1.4 10.4 7.5 0.4
2–5 May Promocija Plus/CRO Demoskop 1300 29.2 29.5 5.7 7.3 1.6 3.1 2.8 0.8 1.1 7.4 11.5 0.3
1-21 Apr Ipsos Puls/Dnevnik Nova TV 964 28.6 29.0 6.9 6.8 4.6 1.8 1.4 1.0 1.6 11.1 7.2 1.2
1-4 Apr Promocija Plus/CRO Demoskop 1300 29.0 29.8 6.3 5.7 1.4 2.3 2.7 1.3 1.2 7.5 12.8 0.8
1-21 Mar Ipsos Puls/Dnevnik Nova TV 969 28.0 30.2 7.6 6.3 3.7 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.6 10.6 7.3 2.2
1-3 Mar Promocija Plus/CRO Demoskop 1300 28.2 29.3 8.6 4.0 1.4 2.3 1.8 1.0 1.3 8.3 13.8 1.1
1-21 Feb Ipsos Puls/Dnevnik Nova TV 973 26.2 28.9 10.2 6.0 2.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 2.0 10.6 8.6 2.7
1-3 Feb Promocija Plus/CRO Demoskop 1300 28.8 30.0 10.0 3.1 1.4 2.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 6.8 13.5 1.2
1-21 Jan Ipsos Puls/Dnevnik Nova TV 975 26.6 28.5 14.5 4.0 4.2 1.5 1.9 - 2.0 16.8 6.7 1.9
4-6 Jan Promocija Plus/CRO Demoskop 1300 29.6 29.3 12.6 3.0 2.0 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.2 6.6 10.1 0.3
2016
1-21 Dec Ipsos Puls/Dnevnik Nova TV 976 27.2 29.5 15.5 4.4 3.5 1.0 1.7 1.0 1.7 8.8 5.7 2.3
30 Nov-2 Dec Promocija Plus/CRO Demoskop 1300 28.2 27.6 15.6 3.2 2.4 2.6 2.1 1.0 1.5 5.6 9.2 0.6
8-20 Nov Ipsos Puls/Dnevnik Nova TV 966 29.0 28.2 19.1 3.8 2.3 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.7 6.1 6.0 0.8

Seats projections

[edit]
Date Polling Firm SDP
HNS
HSU
HSS 		HDZ
HSLS
HDS
Hrast 		Most Živi zid
et al. 		BM 365
NS-R
et al. 		IDS
PGS
RI 		HDSSB
HKS 		Pametno
Za grad
11 Sep General Election 54 61 13 8 2 3 1 0
8 Sep 2x1 komunikacije 59 55 13 6 2 3 2 0
7 Sep Ipsos Puls 55 53 12 8 7 3 1 1
4 Sep Promocija Plus 62 55 12 3 3 3 2 0
2 Sep Hendal 61 56 13 6 0 3 1 0
9 Jun Promocija Plus 62 48 12 11 3 2 2 0
8 Nov 2015 General Election 56 59 19 1 2 3 2 -

Polls of electoral districts

[edit]

Coalition standings

[edit]

The poll in the table below was conducted by Hendal for HRT from 16 to 26 August 2016:

District SDP
HNS
HSU
HSS 		HDZ
HSLS
HDS
Hrast 		Most Živi zid
et al. 		BM 365
NS-R
et al. 		IDS
PGS
RI 		HDSSB
HKS 		Pametno
Za grad 		HL NLSP
ORaH
et al. 		Undecided Lead
I. district[2] 34.7 22.8 9.6 5.2 3.0 – – 3.0 – – 16.5 11.9
II. district[3] 31.3 24.7 8.0 4.3 4.1 – – – – – 22.1 6.6
III. district[4] 44.1 16.0 6.5 4.5 3.2 – – – 0.8 – 21.7 28.1
IV. district[2] 24.2 33.0 7.1 3.9 – – 5.4 – – – 20.4 8.8
V. district[5] 22.4 36.8 4.7 3.7 2.9 – 3.7 – – – 22.1 14.4
VI. district[6] 27.2 27.4 4.7 7.8 3.9 – – – – – 24.3 0.2
VII. district[6] 32.2 26.8 8.3 4.6 2.4 – – 2.3 – – 19.2 5.4
VIII. district[7] 32.0 9.6 4.7 6.4 – 14.8 – – – – 22.6 22.4
IX. district[7] 19.4 41.0 7.8 4.3 1.0 – – – – 0.6 21.3 21.6
X. district[8] 21.3 31.7 16.1 2.7 2.3 – – – – – 21.3 10.4

The poll in the table below was conducted by Promocija plus for RTL and Jutarnji List[9] in August and September 2016:[10]

(*) It is commonly assumed on the basis of results from previous elections and past experience that HDZ will win a majority (if not all) of the 3 seats allocated to the XI electoral district made up of Croatian citizens living abroad. Should this be the case HDZ would have a total of 58 seats, with 56 being considered safe seats and raising its possible seat range to 56-63.

(**) The 11 remaining seats are allocated in the XI (3) and XII (8) electoral districts. The XI electoral districts encompasses all Croatian citizens living abroad. The XII electoral district encompasses members of 22 recognized national minorities who elected representatives in a single district with the votes being subsequently allocated to candidates running for every minority's individual seat. The Serb minority elects 3 members, while 1 seat each is allocated to the Italian, Hungarian, Czech/Slovak, Albanian/Bosniak/Macedonian/Montenegrin/Slovene and Austrian/Bulgarian/German/Jewish/Polish/Roma/Romanian/Rusyn/Russian/Turkish /Ukrainian/Vlach minorities.

District SDP
HNS
HSU
HSS 		HDZ
HSLS
HDS
Hrast 		Most Živi zid
et al. 		IDS
PGS
RI 		BM 365
NS-R
et al. 		NLSP
ORaH
et al. 		HSP AS
HKDU
et al. 		HDSSB
HKS 		Pametno
Za grad 		HSP
HČSP
et al. 		HL ID Others Undecided Lead
I. district 38.7 23 9.7 5.7 – 3.7 0.5 1.8 – 2.7 0.8 0.5 – 1.8 10.9 15.7
II. district 33.6 28.7 7.2 4.8 – 6.8 0.9 1.1 – 1.3 0.9 0.7 – 2.2 11.6 4.9
III. district 44.2 20.8 6.3 4.6 – 5.0 0.6 2.4 – 0.7 0.2 1.1 – 1.3 12.9 23.4
IV. district 29.1 31.7 6.5 4.1 – 1.6 – 1.6 10.5 0.7 1.1 0.7 – 1.0 11.4 2.6
V. district 27.2 39.5 7.0 3.9 – 1.9 0.5 1.1 3.7 0.7 0.5 – – 1.1 12.8 12.3
VI. district 34.2 28.8 6.3 4.5 – 5.9 0.5 2.0 – 0.9 1.8 0.5 – 1.8 12.8 5.4
VII. district 34.4 28.9 6.8 6.2 1.3 4.4 – 0.9 – 0.9 1.1 0.5 – 1.8 12.8 5.5
VIII. district 35.4 16.4 5.4 4.8 16.8 1.0 1.2 1.0 – 1.4 1.0 – 1.2 1.4 13.2 19
IX. district 24.2 43.3 6.8 3.9 – 1.3 3.4 0.7 – 0.9 0.9 0.4 – 2.0 12.3 19.1
X. district 26.2 36.6 14.7 1.9 – 0.9 0.7 1.0 – 3.1 0.9 0.5 – 1.2 12.2 10.4
Total seats 62 55* 12 3 3 3 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 11** 7
Safe seats 57 53* 11 2 3 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 - 4
Marginal seats (gain) 3 5 1 6 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -
Marginal seats (loss) 5 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -
Seat range 57-65 53-60 11-13 2-9 3 3-4 0 0 1-3 0 0 0 0 0 -

Individual party standings

[edit]

The poll in the table below was conducted by Promocija plus for RTL in May and June 2016:

District Date(s) conducted Polling Firm SDP HDZ Most Živi zid MB 365 HNS HSS HSLS IDS HDSSB Others Undecided Lead
I. Unspecified (published 9 Jun) Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List 35.9 20.3 8.7 7.2 - 1.9 - 1.6 - - 10.5 14.1 15.6
II. Unspecified (published 8 Jun) Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List 28.8 21.1 6.6 8.0 4.4 2.6 4.8 1.0 - - 6.4 16.1 7.7
III. Unspecified (published 24 May) Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List 32.5 17.2 5.1 8.0 - 9.9 - - - - - 12.0 15.3
IV. Unspecified (published 22 May) Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List 27.7 30.4 5.6 9.3 - 3.9 1.6 1.0 - 9.7 2.9 - 2.7
V. Unspecified (published 26 May) Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List 24.6 33.5 4.9 5.6 - - - - - 5.1 - 11.0 8.9
VI. Unspecified (published 7 Jun) Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List 31.1 24.1 7.4 9.2 4.9 2.0 - - - - 9.9 11.5 7.0
VII. Unspecified (published 6 Jun) Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List 31.5 24.5 6.1 12.3 - 1.6 - - - - 15.2 8.9 7.0
VIII. Unspecified (published 29 May) Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List 33.6 12.9 5.0 7.7 - - - - 16.3 - 9.4 15.4 17.3
IX. Unspecified (published 31 May) Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List 25.2 36.5 6.3 7.4 - - - - - - 12.0 12.6 11.3
X. Unspecified (published 2 Jun) Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List 22.5 28.3 15.8 7.9 - - - - - - 14.7 10.8 5.8

References

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  1. ^ Blažević, Robert (2016): Upravna znanost, p. 324. ISBN 9789537083243
  2. ^ a b "Rezultati preferencija birača uoči izbora u 4. i 1. izbornoj jedinici". HRT. 2 September 2016. Retrieved 3 September 2016.
  3. ^ "Rezultati preferencija birača uoči izbora u 2. izbornoj jedinici". HRT. 29 August 2016. Retrieved 30 August 2016.
  4. ^ "Rezultati preferencija birača uoči izbora u 3. izbornoj jedinici". HRT. 28 August 2016. Retrieved 30 August 2016.
  5. ^ "Rezultati preferencija birača uoči izbora u 5. izbornoj jedinici". HRT. 27 August 2016. Retrieved 28 August 2016.
  6. ^ a b "Rezultati preferencija birača uoči izbora u 6. i 7. izbornoj jedinici". HRT. 1 September 2016. Retrieved 2 September 2016.
  7. ^ a b "Rezultati preferencija birača uoči izbora u 8. i 9. izbornoj jedinici". HRT. 31 August 2016. Retrieved 31 August 2016.
  8. ^ "Rezultati preferencija birača uoči izbora u 10. izbornoj jedinici". HRT. 30 August 2016. Retrieved 30 August 2016.
  9. ^ "Stigli rezultati velike ankete na sjeverozapadu Hrvatske". Jutarnji List. 22 August 2016. Retrieved 3 September 2016.
  10. ^ "Statistički Centar – Vijesti.hr". RTL Televizija. Retrieved 26 August 2016.
Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 | Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2016_Croatian_parliamentary_election
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