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Opinion polling for the 2017 United Kingdom general election

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Opinion polling for UK general elections
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2019 election
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Opinion polls • Leadership approval

In the run-up to the general election on 8 June 2017, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

The date range for these opinion polls is from after the previous general election, held on 7 May 2015, to immediately before 8 June 2017. Under fixed-term legislation, the next general election was scheduled to be held on 7 May 2020. However, on 18 April 2017, Prime Minister Theresa May said that she would seek to bring forward the general election to Thursday 8 June 2017, which the House of Commons approved on 19 April. For an early election to be held, two-thirds of the total membership of the House had to support the resolution. The Conservative Party went into the election defending its overall majority won in 2015 with the Labour Party as the leading opposition party both in terms of polling numbers and seats.

Most opinion polls cover only Great Britain, as Northern Ireland seats are contested by a different set of political parties. Most YouGov polls include the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru as single options. The English and Welsh, Scottish, and Northern Irish Green Parties are also treated as a single option by most polls.

Graphical summaries

[edit]
  Conservative
  Labour
  UKIP
  Liberal Democrats
  SNP
  Greens
Polling for the 2017 UK general election campaign period (18 April onwards), including polls released by 3pm 8 June 2017 (moving average is calculated from the last six polls)
  Conservative
  Labour
  UKIP
  Liberal Democrats
  SNP
  Greens

Poll results

[edit]

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order.[1] The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The "Lead" column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. If there is a tie, no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. Poll results are generally rounded to the nearest percentage point (where a result is less than 0.5%, but more than zero, it is indicated by '*'). Percentages may not add to 100%, due to rounding. Data for all polls listed was obtained online, with the exception of Ipsos MORI and Survation, who obtained their data both online and by telephone.

The poll results shown are the 'headline' figures, those published or broadcast in the mainstream media. Polling organisations obtain raw data from respondents and subsequently adjust or 'weight' this according to their projections of turnout and voting on election day based on, for example, age and party preference. Each polling organisation weights its raw data differently.

The six parties with the largest numbers of votes in the 2015 general election are listed here. Other parties are included in the "Others" column.

  Conservative Party (Con)
  Labour Party (Lab)
  UK Independence Party (UKIP)
  Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem)
  Scottish National Party (SNP) — Scotland only
  Green parties (Green Party of England and Wales and Scottish Greens) (Green)

2017

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample
size 		Con Lab UKIP Lib Dem SNP Green Others Lead
8 June General Election results (GB only) [2] – 43.5% 41.0% 1.9% 7.6% 3.1% 1.7% 1.2% 2.5%
6–7 Jun Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,291 44% 36% 4% 7% 5% 2% 2% 8%
6–7 Jun BMG/The Herald 1,199 46% 33% 5% 8% 4% 3% 2% 13%
6–7 Jun Survation 2,798 41% 40% 2% 8% 4% 2% 2% 1%
6–7 Jun ICM/The Guardian 1,532 46% 34% 5% 7% 5% 2% 1% 12%
5–7 Jun YouGov/The Times[a] 2,130 42%[a] 35%[a] 5% 10% 5%[b] 2% 1% 7%[a]
5–7 Jun ComRes/Independent 2,051 44% 34% 5% 9% 4% 2% 1% 10%
4–7 Jun Qriously/Wired 2,213 39% 41% 4% 6% 3% 7% 2%
2–7 Jun Panelbase 3,018 44% 36% 5% 7% 4% 2% 2% 8%
1–7 Jun Kantar Public Archived 11 June 2017 at the Wayback Machine 2,159 43% 38% 4% 7% 4% 2% 2% 5%
4–6 Jun Opinium 3,002 43% 36% 5% 8% 5% 2% 1% 7%
2–4 Jun ICM/The Guardian 2,000 45% 34% 5% 8% 4% 3% 1% 11%
3 Jun London terror attack, national campaigning partially suspended on 4 June[5]
3 Jun Survation/Mail on Sunday 1,049 40% 39% 5% 8% 4% 5% 1%
2–3 Jun Survation/Good Morning Britain[c] 1,103 41% 40% 3% 6% 4% 1% 4% 1%
1–2 Jun YouGov/Sunday Times 1,989 42% 38% 4% 9% 4%[b] 2% 0% 4%
31 May–2 Jun ICM/The Sun on Sunday 2,051 45% 34% 5% 9% 4% 3% 1% 11%
31 May–2 Jun ComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday 2,038 47% 35% 4% 8% 3% 1% 1% 12%
31 May–1 Jun Norstat 1,013 39% 35% 6% 8% * 3% 9% 4%
31 May–1 Jun ORB/Telegraph 1,656 45% 36% 4% 8% 7% 9%
30 May–1 Jun Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard[c] 1,046 45% 40% 2% 7% 3%[b] 2% 1% 5%
26 May–1 Jun Panelbase 1,224 44% 36% 5% 7% 5% 2% 1% 8%
30–31 May Opinium/Observer 2,006 43% 37% 5% 6% 5% 2% 1% 6%
30–31 May YouGov/The Times 1,875 42% 39% 4% 7% 4%[b] 2% 1% 3%
25–30 May Kantar Public Archived 14 August 2017 at the Wayback Machine 1,199 43% 33% 4% 11% 4% 3% 1% 10%
26–29 May ICM/The Guardian 2,002 45% 33% 5% 8% 4% 3% 2% 12%
26–29 May Qriously 1,153 43% 39% 5% 6% 3% 2% 3% 4%
26–27 May Survation/Good Morning Britain[c] 1,009 43% 37% 4% 8% 2% 1% 4% 6%
25–26 May YouGov/Sunday Times 2,003 43% 36% 4% 9% 4%[b] 2% 1% 7%
24–26 May ICM/The Sun on Sunday 2,044 46% 32% 5% 8% 4% 2% 1% 14%
24–26 May ComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday 2,024 46% 34% 5% 8% 4% 2% 1% 12%
24–25 May ORB/Sunday Telegraph 1,556 44% 38% 5% 7% 4% 2% 6%
24–25 May YouGov/The Times 2,052 43% 38% 4% 10% 5%[b] 1% 0% 5%
23–24 May Opinium/Observer 2,002 45% 35% 5% 7% 5% 2% 1% 10%
19–23 May Panelbase/The Sunday Times 1,019 48% 33% 4% 7% 5% 2% 1% 15%
22 May Manchester Arena bombing, national campaigning suspended 23–24 May
18–22 May Kantar Public Archived 6 June 2017 at the Wayback Machine 1,200 42% 34% 4% 9% 4% 4% 2% 8%
19–21 May ICM/The Guardian 2,004 47% 33% 4% 9% 4% 2% 1% 14%
19–20 May Survation/Good Morning Britain[c] 1,034 43% 34% 4% 8% 3% 2% 5% 9%
19–20 May Survation/Mail on Sunday 1,017 46% 34% 3% 8% 4% 1% 3% 12%
18–19 May YouGov/Sunday Times 1,925 44% 35% 3% 9% 5%[b] 2% 1% 9%
17–18 May ORB/Sunday Telegraph 1,551 46% 34% 7% 7% 4% 2% 12%
16–17 May Opinium/Observer 2,003 46% 33% 5% 8% 5% 2% 1% 13%
16–17 May YouGov/The Times 1,861 45% 32% 6% 8% 5% 2% 1% 13%
15–17 May Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,053 49% 34% 2% 7% 6% 3% * 15%
12–15 May Panelbase 1,026 47% 33% 5% 7% 5% 3% * 14%
11–15 May Kantar Public Archived 22 June 2017 at the Wayback Machine 1,201 47% 29% 6% 8% 4% 4% 2% 18%
12–14 May ICM/The Guardian 2,030 48% 28% 6% 10% 4% 3% 1% 20%
3–14 May GfK/Business Insider 1,952 48% 28% 5% 7% 6% 3% 2% 20%
12–13 May Survation/Good Morning Britain 1,016 48% 30% 4% 8% 4% 2% 4% 18%
11–12 May YouGov/Sunday Times 1,630 49% 31% 3% 9% 5%[b] 2% 1% 18%
10–12 May ComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday 2,007 48% 30% 5% 10% 4% 3% 1% 18%
9–12 May Opinium/Observer 2,003 47% 32% 5% 8% 5% 2% 1% 15%
10–11 May ORB/Sunday Telegraph 1,508 46% 32% 6% 8% 5% 4% 14%
9–10 May YouGov/The Times 1,651 46% 30% 5% 11% 6%[b] 2% 1% 16%
5–9 May Panelbase 1,027 48% 31% 5% 8% 4% 2% 2% 17%
4–8 May Kantar Public Archived 14 August 2017 at the Wayback Machine 1,201 44% 28% 8% 11% 4% 5% 1% 16%
5–7 May ICM/The Guardian 2,038 49% 27% 6% 9% 4% 3% 1% 22%
5–6 May Survation/Good Morning Britain 1,005 47% 30% 4% 7% 5% 3% 3% 17%
4–5 May YouGov/Sunday Times 1,644 47% 28% 6% 11% 5%[b] 2% 1% 19%
3–5 May ICM/Sun on Sunday 2,020 46% 28% 8% 10% 4% 4% * 18%
4 May United Kingdom local and mayoral elections
3–4 May ORB/Sunday Telegraph 1,550 46% 31% 8% 9% 3% 3% 15%
2–3 May Opinium/Observer 2,005 46% 30% 7% 9% 4% 2% 1% 16%
2–3 May YouGov/The Times 2,066 48% 29% 5% 10% 5%[b] 2% 1% 19%
28 Apr–2 May Panelbase 1,034 47% 30% 5% 10% 5% 2% 1% 17%
28 Apr–2 May ICM/The Guardian 1,970 47% 28% 8% 8% 3% 4% 1% 19%
28 Apr–1 May Qriously 1,240 44% 28% 8% 9% 3% 4% 4% 15%
27 Apr–2 May Kantar Public Archived 8 July 2017 at the Wayback Machine 1,205 48% 24% 7% 11% 4% 4% 2% 24%
27–28 Apr YouGov/Sunday Times 1,612 44% 31% 6% 11% 4%[b] 2% 2% 13%
26–28 Apr ICM/Sun on Sunday 2,012 47% 28% 8% 9% 4% 4% * 19%
25–28 Apr Opinium/Observer 2,007 47% 30% 7% 8% 5% 3% 1% 17%
26–27 Apr ORB/Sunday Telegraph 2,093 42% 31% 8% 10% 4% 4% 11%
25–26 Apr YouGov/The Times 1,590 45% 29% 7% 10% 5%[b] 3% 1% 16%
21–25 Apr Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard[permanent dead link‍] 1,004 49% 26% 4% 13% 4% 1% 4% 23%
21–24 Apr ICM/The Guardian 2,024 48% 27% 7% 10% 4% 3% 1% 21%
20–24 Apr Panelbase 1,026 49% 27% 5% 10% 5% 3% 1% 22%
20–24 Apr Kantar Public Archived 26 April 2017 at the Wayback Machine 1,196 46% 24% 8% 11% 5% 4% 1% 22%
Pre-23 Apr Norstat/Sunday Express 1,036 42% 26% 8% 10% * 6% 8% 16%
21–22 Apr Survation/Mail on Sunday 2,072 40% 29% 11% 11% 4% 2% 3% 11%
20–21 Apr YouGov/Sunday Times 1,590 48% 25% 5% 12% 6%[b] 3% 1% 23%
19–21 Apr ICM/ITV 2,027 48% 26% 8% 10% 4% 3% 2% 22%
19–20 Apr ORB/Daily Telegraph 1,860 44% 29% 10% 8% 5% 4% 15%
19–20 Apr ComRes/Sunday Mirror Archived 22 April 2017 at the Wayback Machine 2,074 50% 25% 7% 11% 4% 3% 1% 25%
19–20 Apr Opinium/Observer 2,003 45% 26% 9% 11% 4% 3% 1% 19%
2–20 Apr YouGov 12,746 44% 25% 9% 12% 6%[b] 3% 1% 19%
18–19 Apr YouGov/The Times 1,727 48% 24% 7% 12% 6%[b] 2% 1% 24%
18 Apr ICM/The Guardian 1,000 46% 25% 8% 11% 4% 4% 1% 21%
18 Apr Prime Minister Theresa May announces her intention to seek a general election to be held on 8 June 2017
14–17 Apr ICM/The Guardian 2,052 44% 26% 11% 10% 4% 4% 1% 18%
12–13 Apr YouGov/The Times 2,069 44% 23% 10% 12% 6%[b] 4% 1% 21%
11–13 Apr ComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday 2,026 46% 25% 9% 11% 4% 4% 2% 21%
11–13 Apr Opinium/Observer 2,002 38% 29% 14% 7% 5% 5% 1% 9%
5–6 Apr YouGov/The Times 1,651 42% 25% 11% 11% 8%[b] 3% 1% 17%
31 Mar–2 Apr ICM/The Guardian 2,005 43% 25% 11% 11% 5% 4% 2% 18%
26–27 Mar YouGov/The Times 1,957 43% 25% 10% 11% 6%[b] 3% 1% 18%
20–21 Mar YouGov/The Times 1,627 41% 25% 12% 11% 6%[b] 3% 2% 16%
17–19 Mar ICM/The Guardian 2,012 45% 26% 10% 9% 4% 4% 1% 19%
15–17 Mar ComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday 2,026 42% 25% 10% 12% 5% 4% 2% 17%
14–17 Mar Opinium/Observer 2,007 41% 28% 13% 8% 6% 3% 1% 13%
1–15 Mar GfK 1,938 41% 28% 12% 7% 5% 6% 1% 13%
13–14 Mar YouGov/The Times 1,631 44% 27% 9% 10% 5%[b] 4% 0% 17%
10–14 Mar Ipsos MORI[permanent dead link‍] 1,032 43% 30% 6% 13% 4% 4% * 13%
8–9 Mar YouGov/The Times 1,598 44% 25% 11% 10% 6%[b] 3% 1% 19%
3–5 Mar ICM/The Guardian 1,787 44% 28% 11% 8% 4% 5% 1% 16%
27–28 Feb YouGov/The Times 1,666 42% 25% 12% 11% 6%[b] 4% 1% 17%
23 Feb By-elections in Stoke-on-Trent Central and Copeland
21–22 Feb YouGov/The Times 2,060 41% 25% 13% 11% 6%[b] 3% 1% 16%
17–19 Feb ICM/The Guardian 2,028 44% 26% 13% 8% 4% 4% 1% 18%
14–16 Feb Opinium/Observer 2,004 40% 27% 14% 8% 5% 4% 2% 13%
10–14 Feb Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,014 40% 29% 9% 13% 5% 4% 0% 11%
12–13 Feb YouGov/The Times 2,052 40% 24% 15% 11% 6%[b] 4% 2% 16%
8–10 Feb ComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday 1,218 41% 26% 11% 11% 5% 4% 2% 15%
5–6 Feb YouGov/The Times 1,984 40% 24% 14% 11% 6%[b] 4% 1% 16%
3–5 Feb ICM/The Guardian 1,984 42% 27% 12% 10% 5% 4% 1% 15%
31 Jan–1 Feb Opinium/Observer 2,005 37% 30% 14% 8% 5% 5% 2% 7%
30–31 Jan YouGov/The Times 1,705 40% 26% 12% 11% 6%[b] 4% 1% 14%
23–24 Jan YouGov/The Times 1,643 40% 24% 14% 10% 6%[b] 3% 0% 16%
20–22 Jan ICM/The Guardian 2,052 42% 26% 13% 10% 4% 5% 1% 16%
17–18 Jan YouGov/The Times 1,654 42% 25% 12% 11% 6%[b] 3% 0% 17%
13–16 Jan Ipsos MORI 1,132 43% 31% 6% 11% 4% 4% * 12%
13 Jan Survation/Mail on Sunday 1,177 38% 29% 13% 10% 4% 2% 4% 9%
10–12 Jan Opinium/Observer 2,007 38% 30% 14% 7% 5% 4% 2% 8%
9–10 Jan YouGov/The Times 1,660 39% 28% 13% 11% 6%[b] 3% 1% 11%
6–8 Jan ICM/The Guardian 2,000 42% 28% 12% 9% 4% 4% * 14%
3–4 Jan YouGov/The Times 1,740 39% 26% 14% 10% 6%[b] 4% 1% 13%

2016

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample
size 		Con Lab UKIP Lib Dem SNP Green Others Lead
18–19 Dec YouGov/The Times 1,595 39% 24% 14% 12% 6%[b] 4% 1% 15%
13–16 Dec Opinium/Observer 2,000 38% 31% 13% 6% 6% 4% 1% 7%
9–12 Dec Ipsos MORI[permanent dead link‍] 1,003 40% 29% 9% 14% 4% 3% 1% 11%
9–11 Dec ICM/The Guardian 2,049 41% 27% 14% 9% 4% 3% 1% 14%
8 Dec Sleaford and North Hykeham by-election
4–5 Dec YouGov/The Times 1,667 42% 25% 12% 11% 6%[b] 4% 1% 17%
1 Dec Richmond Park by-election
28–29 Nov YouGov/The Times 1,624 39% 27% 14% 9% 6%[b] 4% 1% 12%
28 Nov Paul Nuttall is elected as the leader of UKIP
25–27 Nov ICM/The Guardian 2,009 44% 28% 12% 7% 4% 4% 2% 16%
21–22 Nov YouGov/The Times 1,693 41% 28% 12% 9% 6%[b] 4% 0% 13%
18–20 Nov ICM/The Guardian 2,031 42% 28% 11% 9% 4% 3% 2% 14%
15–18 Nov Opinium 2,005 41% 29% 12% 7% 6% 3% 1% 12%
14–15 Nov YouGov/The Times 1,717 42% 28% 11% 8% 7%[b] 4% 1% 14%
11–14 Nov Ipsos MORI[permanent dead link‍] 1,013 42% 33% 7% 10% 5%[b] 3% 1% 9%
1–4 Nov Opinium 2,001 40% 32% 13% 6% 6% 4% – 8%
31 Oct–1 Nov YouGov/The Times 1,608 41% 27% 11% 10% 6%[b] 4% 1% 14%
28–30 Oct ICM/The Guardian 2,040 43% 27% 12% 8% 4% 5% 1% 16%
24–25 Oct YouGov/The Times 1,655 40% 27% 11% 11% 7%[b] 3% 1% 13%
19–24 Oct BMG 1,546 42% 28% 12% 8% 5% 4% 1% 14%
20 Oct By-elections in Witney and Batley & Spen
19–20 Oct YouGov/Election Data 1,608 42% 26% 12% 8% 6%[b] 5% 1% 16%
14–17 Oct Ipsos MORI[permanent dead link‍] 1,016 47% 29% 6% 7% 6%[b] 4% 1% 18%
11–12 Oct YouGov/The Times 1,669 42% 28% 11% 9% 6%[b] 3% 0% 14%
7–9 Oct ICM/The Guardian 2,017 43% 26% 11% 8% 4% 6% 2% 17%
28–29 Sep YouGov/The Times 1,658 39% 30% 13% 8% 6%[b] 3% 0% 9%
24 Sep Jeremy Corbyn is re-elected as the Leader of the Labour Party and Leader of the Opposition
21–23 Sep ICM/Sun on Sunday 2,015 41% 26% 14% 8% 5% 4% 2% 15%
20–23 Sep BMG 2,026 39% 28% 13% 8% 5% 5% 2% 11%
19–21 Sep YouGov/The Times 3,285 39% 30% 13% 8% 6%[b] 3% 1% 9%
16 Sep Diane James is elected the leader of UKIP
13–14 Sep YouGov/The Times 1,732 38% 31% 13% 7% 6% 4% – 7%
10–14 Sep Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard[permanent dead link‍] 1,000 40% 34% 9% 6% 4%[b] 5% 1% 6%
9–11 Sep ICM/The Guardian 2,013 41% 27% 14% 8% 5% 4% 2% 14%
4–5 Sep YouGov/The Times 1,616 40% 29% 13% 7% 7%[b] 3% – 11%
2 Sep Caroline Lucas and Jonathan Bartley are elected joint leaders of the Green Party
30–31 Aug YouGov/The Times 1,687 38% 30% 14% 7% 6%[b] 4% – 8%
26–28 Aug ICM/The Guardian 2,040 41% 27% 13% 9% 4% 4% 2% 14%
22–23 Aug YouGov/The Times 1,660 40% 29% 13% 8% 6%[b] 3% 1% 11%
11–22 Aug Lord Ashcroft Polls 8,011 40% 31% 13% 7% 5% 3% 1% 9%
16–17 Aug YouGov/The Times 1,677 38% 30% 13% 9% 7%[b] 4% – 8%
13–15 Aug Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard[permanent dead link‍] 1,017 45% 34% 6% 7% 4% 4% 1% 11%
12–15 Aug ICM 2,010 40% 28% 14% 8% 4% 4% 2% 12%
8–9 Aug YouGov/The Times 1,692 38% 31% 13% 8% 7%[b] 4% – 7%
5–8 Aug TNS[permanent dead link‍] 1,199 39% 26% 11% 10% 4% 7% 2% 13%
1–2 Aug YouGov/The Times 1,722 42% 28% 12% 8% 6%[b] 3% 1% 14%
25–26 Jul YouGov/The Times 1,680 40% 28% 13% 8% 7%[b] 4% 1% 12%
22–24 Jul ICM 2,012 43% 27% 13% 8% 4% 4% 1% 16%
19–22 Jul Opinium/Observer 2,231 37% 31% 15% 6% 6% 4% 1% 6%
17–18 Jul YouGov 1,891 40% 29% 12% 9% 7%[b] 3% 1% 11%
13–15 Jul ICM 2,027 39% 29% 14% 9% 4% 4% 2% 10%
13 Jul Theresa May becomes the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
9–11 Jul Ipsos MORI 1,021 36% 35% 8% 11% 5% 4% 1% 1%
8–10 Jul ICM 2,025 38% 30% 15% 8% 5% 4% 1% 8%
4–5 Jul Survation/Constitutional Research Council 1,008 36% 32% 12% 9% 6% – 7% 4%
1–3 Jul ICM 1,979 37% 30% 15% 8% 5% 4% 2% 7%
28–30 Jun Opinium 2,006 34% 29% 17% 7% 5% 4% 2% 5%
24–26 Jun ICM/The Guardian 2,001 36% 32% 15% 7% 5% 5% 1% 4%
24–25 Jun Survation/Mail on Sunday 1,033 32% 32% 16% 9% 4% 4% 2% Tie
23 Jun UK European Union membership referendum: 52% of voters vote in favour of leaving EU; David Cameron announces he will resign as Prime Minister
20–22 Jun Opinium 3,011 34% 30% 19% 6% 6% 4% 2% 4%
14–17 Jun Opinium/Observer 2,006 34% 30% 18% 6% 6% 4% 1% 4%
16 Jun Tooting by-election; killing of MP Jo Cox, leading to a suspension of referendum campaigning until 19 June
15–16 Jun ComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday 2,046 34% 29% 19% 8% 5% 4% 2% 5%
11–14 Jun Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,257 35% 34% 10% 9% 5% 4% 3% 1%
10–13 Jun ICM/The Guardian 2,001 34% 30% 19% 8% 4% 4% 1% 4%
10–13 Jun ICM/The Guardian 1,000 34% 33% 14% 9% 4% 5% 2% 1%
7–10 Jun Opinium/Observer 2,009 35% 32% 18% 4% 5% 4% 1% 3%
31 May–3 Jun Opinium/Observer 2,007 34% 30% 18% 6% 6% 4% 2% 4%
27–29 May ICM/The Guardian 2,052 36% 31% 17% 7% 4% 4% 2% 5%
27–29 May ICM/The Guardian 1,004 36% 32% 15% 7% 4% 3% 2% 4%
17–19 May Opinium/Observer 2,008 35% 30% 18% 5% 6% 5% 2% 5%
14–16 May Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,002 36% 34% 10% 8% 5% 5% 2% 2%
13–15 May ICM/The Guardian 1,002 36% 34% 13% 7% 4% 4% 2% 2%
13–15 May ICM/The Guardian 2,048 34% 32% 17% 7% 5% 4% 1% 2%
11–12 May ComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday 2,043 36% 30% 17% 8% 5% 4% – 6%
5 May 2016 United Kingdom local elections including the Ogmore and Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough by-elections
26–29 Apr Opinium/Observer 2,005 38% 30% 15% 5% 5% 5% 2% 8%
25–26 Apr YouGov/The Times 1,650 30% 33% 20% 6% 8%[b] 3% – 3%
22–26 Apr BMG Research 1,375 33% 32% 18% 6% 5% 4% 2% 1%
16–18 Apr Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,026 38% 35% 11% 6% 6% 3% 1% 3%
15–17 Apr ICM/The Guardian 1,003 38% 33% 13% 7% 5% 3% 1% 5%
15–17 Apr ICM/The Guardian 2,008 36% 31% 16% 7% 4% 4% 2% 5%
13–14 Apr ComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday 2,036 35% 30% 16% 8% 5% 4% 1% 5%
11–12 Apr YouGov/The Times 1,639 31% 34% 17% 8% 7%[b] 3% – 3%
29 Mar–1 Apr Opinium/Observer 1,966 33% 32% 17% 5% 6% 4% 2% 1%
24–29 Mar BMG Research 1,298 36% 31% 16% 7% 5% 5% 2% 5%
19–22 Mar Ipsos MORI 1,023 36% 34% 11% 10% 5% 3% 2% 2%
18–20 Mar ComRes/Daily Mail 1,002 37% 35% 9% 7% 5% 4% 2% 2%
16–17 Mar YouGov/The Times 1,691 33% 34% 16% 6% 6%[b] 3% 2% 1%
11–13 Mar ICM/The Guardian 1,001 36% 36% 11% 8% 3% 3% 1% Tie
9–10 Mar ComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday 2,059 38% 29% 16% 7% 4% 4% 1% 9%
21–23 Feb YouGov/The Times 3,482 37% 30% 16% 8% 6%[b] 3% – 7%
17–23 Feb BMG Research 1,268 38% 30% 16% 5% 5% 5% 2% 8%
19–22 Feb ComRes/Daily Mail 1,000 38% 31% 12% 8% 4% 3% 3% 7%
13–16 Feb Ipsos MORI 1,001 39% 33% 12% 6% 6% 3% 2% 6%
12–14 Feb ICM/The Guardian 1,004 39% 32% 11% 7% 4% 4% 3% 7%
10–12 Feb ComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday 2,018 41% 27% 15% 9% 5% 3% 1% 14%
3–4 Feb YouGov/The Times 1,675 39% 29% 18% 6% 4%[b] 3% 1% 10%
27–28 Jan YouGov 1,735 39% 30% 17% 6% 4%[b] 3% 1% 9%
23–25 Jan Ipsos MORI 1,027 40% 31% 11% 7% 5% 4% 1% 9%
22–24 Jan ComRes/Daily Mail 1,006 37% 32% 12% 6% 4% 4% 4% 5%
15–17 Jan ICM/The Guardian 1,001 40% 35% 10% 6% 4% 3% 2% 5%
15–16 Jan Survation/Mail on Sunday 1,017 37% 30% 16% 7% 5% 3% 3% 7%
13–15 Jan ComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday 2,004 40% 29% 16% 7% 4% 3% 1% 11%
8–14 Jan Panelbase/Sunday Times 2,087 39% 31% 14% 6% 5% 5% – 8%

2015

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample
size 		Con Lab UKIP Lib Dem SNP Green Others Lead
18–20 Dec ICM/The Guardian 1,003 39% 34% 10% 7% 4% 3% 3% 5%
17–18 Dec YouGov/The Times 1,598 39% 29% 17% 6% 5%[b] 3% 1% 10%
15–18 Dec Opinium/Observer 1,936 38% 30% 16% 5% 6% 5% 2% 8%
12–14 Dec Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,040 38% 31% 9% 9% 5% 6% 2% 7%
11–13 Dec ComRes/Daily Mail 1,001 37% 33% 11% 7% 4% 5% 2% 4%
9–11 Dec ComRes/Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror 2,049 40% 29% 16% 7% 4% 3% 1% 11%
3 Dec Oldham West and Royton by-election
30 Nov–1 Dec YouGov/The Times 1,657 41% 30% 16% 6% 4%[b] 3% 1% 11%
20–24 Nov YouGov 4,317 38% 29% 17% 6% 5%[b] 3% 1% 9%
20–22 Nov ComRes/Daily Mail 1,000 40% 29% 11% 8% 4% 3% 4% 11%
18–20 Nov ComRes/Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror 2,067 42% 27% 15% 7% 5% 3% 1% 15%
16–17 Nov Survation/Leave.EU[d] 1,546 37% 30% 16% 6% 5% 3% 3% 7%
14–17 Nov Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,021 41% 34% 7% 7% 6% 4% - 7%
11–17 Nov BMG Research 1,334 37% 30% 15% 7% 4% 4% 2% 7%
13–15 Nov ICM/The Guardian 1,006 39% 33% 12% 7% 5% 3% 1% 6%
9–11 Nov Survation/Leave.EU[d] 2,007 36% 30% 15% 7% 5% 3% 3% 6%
22–27 Oct BMG Research 1,467 37% 31% 15% 6% 4% 5% 2% 6%
23–25 Oct ComRes/Daily Mail 1,002 38% 33% 10% 8% 3% 3% 4% 5%
17–19 Oct Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,021 36% 32% 12% 10% 5% 3% 2% 4%
13–16 Oct Opinium 1,934 37% 32% 15% 5% 6% 4% 2% 5%
14–15 Oct ComRes/Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror 2,051 42% 29% 13% 7% 5% 3% 1% 13%
9–11 Oct ICM/The Guardian 1,002 38% 34% 11% 7% 5% 3% 3% 4%
29–30 Sep YouGov/The Sun 2,064 37% 31% 17% 7% 5%[b] 2% 1% 6%
26–28 Sep ComRes/Daily Mail 1,009 39% 30% 12% 9% 4% 4% 3% 9%
21–22 Sep Survation/Huffington Post 1,008 37% 32% 13% 9% 5% 3% 1% 5%
19–22 Sep Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,255 39% 34% 7% 9% 5% 4% 1% 5%
17–18 Sep YouGov/Sunday Times 1,601 39% 31% 16% 6% 5%[b] 3% 1% 8%
15–18 Sep Opinium 1,942 37% 32% 14% 6% 5% 4% 1% 5%
16–17 Sep ComRes/Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror 2,015 42% 30% 13% 7% 5% 3% 1% 12%
11–13 Sep ICM/The Guardian 1,006 38% 32% 13% 8% 5% 3% 2% 6%
12 Sep Jeremy Corbyn is elected leader of the Labour Party and appointed Leader of the Opposition
3–4 Sep Survation/Mail on Sunday 1,004 38% 32% 13% 6% 5% 4% 2% 6%
21–23 Aug ComRes/Daily Mail 1,001 42% 28% 9% 8% 5% 6% 3% 14%
12–13 Aug ComRes/Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror 2,035 40% 29% 13% 8% 5% 4% 1% 11%
12–13 Aug Survation/TSSA 1,007 38% 33% 15% 6% 5% 3% 1% 5%
7–9 Aug ICM/The Guardian 1,000 40% 31% 10% 7% 5% 4% 2% 9%
24–26 Jul ComRes/Daily Mail 1,001 40% 28% 10% 7% 5% 5% 4% 12%
18–20 Jul Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,026 37% 31% 9% 10% 5% 8% 1% 6%
16 Jul Tim Farron is elected leader of the Liberal Democrats
10–12 Jul ICM/The Guardian 1,005 38% 34% 13% 6% 4% 4% 1% 4%
26–28 Jun ComRes/Daily Mail 1,002 39% 27% 11% 9% 5% 6% 3% 12%
14–16 Jun Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,005 39% 30% 8% 9% 5% 6% 2% 9%
12–14 Jun ICM/The Guardian 1,004 37% 31% 13% 8% 5% 5% 1% 6%
29–31 May ComRes/Daily Mail 1,000 41% 29% 10% 8% 5% 5% 3% 12%
25–26 May YouGov/The Sun 1,709 41% 30% 13% 7% 4%[b] 4% 1% 11%
8–9 May Survation/Mail on Sunday 1,027 40% 31% 12% 6% 5% 3% 2% 9%
7 May General Election results (GB only)[6][7] – 37.8% 31.2% 12.9% 8.1% 4.9% 3.8% 1.4% 6.6%

YouGov model

[edit]

During the election campaign, YouGov created a Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) model based on poll data. As set out by YouGov, the model "works by modelling every constituency and key voter types in Britain based on analysis of key demographics as well as past voting behaviour", with new interviews to registered voters conducted every day.[8]

Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample
size 		Con Lab UKIP Lib Dem SNP Green Others Lead
8 June General Election results (GB only) [2] – 43.5% 41.0% 1.9% 7.6% 3.1% 1.7% 1.2% 2.5%
31 May–6 Jun YouGov 55,707 42% 38% 3% 9% 4% 2% 1% 4%
30 May–5 Jun YouGov 53,241 42% 38% 4% 9% 4% 2% 1% 4%
29 May–4 Jun YouGov 53,609 42% 38% 3% 9% 4% 2% 2% 4%
27 May–2 Jun YouGov 51,945 42% 38% 3% 9% 4% 2% 2% 4%
26 May–1 Jun YouGov 53,000 42% 38% 3% 9% 4% 2% 1% 4%
25–31 May YouGov 53,611 42% 38% 3% 9% 4% 2% 2% 4%
24–30 May YouGov 53,464 41% 38% 4% 9% 4% 2% 2% 3%
23–29 May YouGov ~50,000 42% 38% 4% 9% 7% 4%

UK-wide seat projections

[edit]

The UK's first-past-the-post electoral system means that national shares of the vote do not give an exact indicator of how the various parties will be represented in Parliament. Different commentators and pollsters provided a number of predictions, based on polls and other data, as to how the parties would be represented in Parliament:

Parties 2015
election
result 		Election
Forecast[9]
as of 7 June 2017 		Electoral
Calculus[10]
as of 7 June 2017 		Lord
Ashcroft[11]
as of 6 June 2017[12] 		Elections
Etc.[13]
as of 2 June 2017 		New
Statesman[14]
as of 6 June 2017 		YouGov[15]
as of 7 June 2017 		Britain Elects[16]
as of 7 June 2017 		Scenari
Politici.com[17]
as of 7 June 2017 		Forecast UK[18]

as of 8 June 2017

Spreadex[19]

as of 7 June 2017

BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll
8 June 2017 		2017
election
result
Conservatives 330 371 361 357 360 339 302 353 365 344-351 365-371 314 318
Labour Party 232 199 215 222 210 224 269 219 208 221-230 198-204 266 262
SNP 56 50 48 45 48 57 44 46 49 44-52 45.5-47.5 34 35
Liberal Democrats 8 7 4 4 9 8 12 9 6 5-7 10.5-12.5 14 12
Plaid Cymru 3 2 3 1 3 — 2 3 3 2-4 — 3 4
Green Party 1 1 1 0 1 — 1 1 1 0-2 0.8-1.4 1 1
UKIP 1 1 0 0 0 — 0 0 0 0 0.1-0.5 0 0
Others 19 1[e] 18[f] 19 — — 20 19 18 19 — 18 18
Overall result Conservative
majority of 10 		Conservative
majority of 92 		Conservative
majority of 72 		Conservative
majority of 64 		Conservative
majority of 70 		Conservative
majority of 28 		Hung
Parliament
(Con 24 seats short) 		Conservative
majority of 56 		Conservative
majority of 84 		Conservative
majority of 46 		Conservative
majority of 82 		Hung
Parliament
(Con 12 seats short) 		Hung
Parliament
(Con 8 seats short)

Lord Ashcroft Polls announced an estimate for the election result. He updated it at intervals on his website.[20][21]

Electoral Calculus maintained a running projection of seats according to latest polls on its website based on universal changes from the previous general election results according to opinion poll averages. It also maintained a seat-by-seat projection for Scotland.[10]

Election Forecast also maintained a projection of seats based on current opinion poll averages on their website.[9]

Elections Etc. issued regular forecasts based on current opinion poll averages, betting markets, expert predictions and other sources on their website.[13]

YouGov issued daily seat estimates using their aggregated statistical election model.[15]

Britain Elects maintained a 'nowcast' of seats based on historical data as well as national and regional polling.[16]

ScenariPolitici.com maintained a projection of seats based on current opinion poll averages on their website.[17]

Spreadex maintained Party Seats spread bets throughout the election, with prices updated daily.[22]

Sub-national polling

[edit]

Scotland

[edit]
Scottish opinion polling for the 2017 general elections. Trendlines are local regressions.
  SNP
  Conservative
  Labour
  Liberal Democrats
  UKIP
  Scottish Greens
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample
size 		SNP Lab Con Lib Dem UKIP Green Others Lead
8 June General Election results[23] 2,649,695 36.9% 27.1% 28.6% 6.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 8.3%
7 Jun 2017 Survation/The Daily Record 1,001 39% 29% 26% 6% * 10%
2–7 Jun 2017 Panelbase 1,106 41% 22% 30% 5% <1% 2% <1% 11%
1–5 Jun 2017 YouGov/The Times 1,093 41% 25% 26% 6% * 1% 2% 15%
31 May–2 Jun 2017 Survation/The Sunday Post 1,024 40% 25% 27% 6% 2% 13%
26–31 May 2017 Panelbase/The Sunday Times 1,021 42% 20% 30% 5% 2% 1% – 12%
22–27 May 2017 Ipsos-Mori/STV 1,016 43% 25% 25% 5% 2% 18%
15–18 May 2017 YouGov/The Times 1,032 42% 19% 29% 6% 1% 2% 1% 13%
12–18 May 2017 BMG/The Herald over 1,000 43% 18% 30% 5% 4% 13%
4 May 2017 2017 Scottish local elections
24–27 Apr 2017 YouGov/The Times 1,017 41% 18% 28% 7% 2% 3% 1% 13%
18–21 Apr 2017 Panelbase/The Sunday Times 1,029 44% 13% 33% 5% 2% 2% 1% 11%
18–21 Apr 2017 Survation/Sunday Post 1,018 43% 18% 28% 9% 3% 15%
18 Apr 2017 Prime Minister Theresa May announces her intention to seek a general election to be held on 8 June 2017
17 Mar 2017 Panelbase/The Sunday Times 1,008 47% 14% 28% 4% 3% 3% <1% 19%
20–26 Jan 2017 Panelbase/The Sunday Times 1,020 47% 15% 27% 4% 3% 3% <1% 20%
28 Sep–4 Oct 2016 BMG 1,010 49% 17% 20% 8% 2% 3% - 29%
9–15 Sep 2016 Panelbase/The Sunday Times 1,024 47% 16% 24% 5% 4% 3% - 23%
13 Jul 2016 Theresa May becomes the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
23 Jun UK European Union membership referendum
5 May 2016 Scottish Parliament election
7–10 Sep 2015 Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,010 52% 21% 16% 6% 2% 3% - 31%
15 Aug 2015 Kezia Dugdale is elected leader of Scottish Labour
3–7 Jul 2015 Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,084 51% 21% 17% 7% 2% 2% - 30%
7 May 2015 General Election results 2,910,465 50.0% 24.3% 14.9% 7.5% 1.6% 1.3% 0.3% 25.7%

Wales

[edit]
Welsh opinion polling for the 2017 general elections. Trendlines are local regressions.
  Labour
  Conservative
  UKIP
  Plaid Cymru
  Liberal Democrats
  Green
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample
size 		Lab Con UKIP Plaid Lib Dem Green Others Lead
8 June General Election results[24] – 48.9% 33.6% 2.0% 10.4% 4.5% 0.3% 0.2% 15.3%
5–7 June 2017 YouGov/ITV 1,074 46% 34% 5% 9% 5% 1% 12%
29–31 May 2017 YouGov/ITV 1,014 46% 35% 5% 8% 5% 0% 0% 11%
18–21 May 2017 YouGov/ITV 1,025 44% 34% 5% 9% 6% 1% 1% 10%
5–7 May 2017 YouGov/ITV 1,018 35% 41% 4% 11% 7% 1% 1% 6%
4 May 2017 2017 Welsh local elections
19–21 April 2017 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,029 30% 40% 6% 13% 8% 2% 1% 10%
18 Apr Prime Minister Theresa May announces her intention to seek a general election to be held on 8 June 2017
3–6 Jan 2017 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,034 33% 28% 13% 13% 9% 2% 0 5%
18–21 Sep 2016 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,001 35% 29% 14% 13% 7% 2% 0 6%
13 Jul 2016 Theresa May becomes the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
30 Jun–4 Jul 2016 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,010 34% 23% 16% 16% 8% 1% 2% 11%
5 May 2016 Welsh Assembly election and Ogmore by-election
19–22 Apr 2016 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,001 37% 23% 17% 13% 7% 2% 1% 14%
7–11 Apr 2016 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,011 38% 22% 18% 13% 6% 2% 1% 16%
7–18 Mar 2016 Welsh Election Study Archived 25 March 2016 at the Wayback Machine 3,272 36% 25% 16% 14% 6% — 3%[25] 11%
9–11 Feb 2016 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,024 37% 27% 18% 13% 4% 1% - 10%
30 Nov–4 Dec 2015 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,005 37% 27% 17% 12% 4% 2% - 10%
21–24 Sep 2015 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,151 42% 26% 16% 10% 5% 2% - 16%
24–26 Jun 2015 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,151 37% 28% 15% 12% 4% 3% 1% 9%
7 May 2015 General Election results – 36.9% 27.2% 13.6% 12.1% 6.5% 2.6% 1.0% 9.7%

Northern Ireland

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample
size 		DUP SF UUP SDLP Alliance TUV Green Others Lead
8 June General Election results[26] – 36.0% 29.4% 10.3% 11.7% 7.9% 0.4% 0.9% 3.3% 6.6%
1–3 June 2017 Lucid Talk[permanent dead link‍] 3,419 28.9% 28.1% 15.4% 13.8% 9.9% 0.1% 0.6% 3.2% 0.8%
17–18 May 2017 Lucid Talk 3,341 28.8% 27.9% 15.7% 13.7% 9.8% 0.1% 0.7% 3.3% 0.9%
27–29 April 2017 Lucid Talk Archived 29 June 2017 at the Wayback Machine 3,187 29.4% 27.7% 14.8% 12.4% 10.2% 0.6% 1.8% 3.1% 1.7%
18 Apr 2017 Prime Minister Theresa May announces her intention to seek a general election to be held on 8 June 2017
2 Mar 2017 2017 Northern Ireland Assembly election
5 May 2016 2016 Northern Ireland Assembly election
7 May 2015 General Election Results – 25.7% 24.5% 16.0% 13.9% 8.6% 2.3% 1.0% 8.2% 1.2%

Regional polling in England

[edit]

North East England

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample
size 		Lab Con UKIP Lib Dem Green Others Lead
8 June 2017 2017 Election – 55.5% 34.4% 3.9% 4.6% 1.3% 0.5% 21.1%
24 Apr–5 May 2017 YouGov 639 42% 40% 8% 6% 2% 0% 2%
7 May 2015 2015 Election – 46.9% 25.3% 16.7% 6.5% 3.6% 0.9% 21.6%

North West England

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample
size 		Lab Con UKIP Lib Dem Green Others Lead
8 June 2017 2017 Election – 54.9% 36.2% 1.9% 5.4% 1.1% 0.5% 18.7%
24 Apr–5 May 2017 YouGov 1,537 42% 42% 6% 8% 2% 0% Tie
23 Feb 2017 Copeland by-election
3 Dec 2015 Oldham West and Royton by-election
7 May 2015 2015 Election – 44.6% 31.2% 13.6% 6.5% 3.2% 0.7% 13.4%

Yorkshire and the Humber

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample
size 		Lab Con UKIP Lib Dem Green Others Lead
8 June 2017 2017 Election – 49.0% 40.5% 2.6% 5.0% 1.3% 1.7% 8.5%
24 Apr–5 May 2017 YouGov 1,293 38% 43% 7% 9% 2% 0% 5%
20 Oct 2016 Batley and Spen by-election
5 May 2016 Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough by-election
7 May 2015 2015 Election – 39.1% 32.6% 16.0% 7.1% 3.5% 1.6% 6.5%

East Midlands

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample
size 		Con Lab UKIP Lib Dem Green Others Lead
8 June 2017 2017 Election – 50.7% 40.5% 2.4% 4.3% 1.4% 0.6% 10.2%
24 Apr–5 May 2017 YouGov 1,164 54% 28% 7% 8% 2% 0% 26%
8 Dec 2016 Sleaford and North Hykeham by-election
7 May 2015 2015 Election – 43.5% 31.6% 15.8% 5.6% 3.0% 0.6% 11.9%

West Midlands

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample
size 		Con Lab UKIP Lib Dem Green Others Lead
8 June 2017 2017 Election – 49.0% 42.5% 1.8% 4.4% 1.7% 0.6% 6.5%
24 Apr–5 May 2017 YouGov 1,211 51% 28% 9% 9% 2% 0% 23%
23 Feb 2017 Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election
7 May 2015 2015 Election – 41.8% 32.9% 15.7% 5.5% 3.3% 0.8% 8.9%

East of England

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample
size 		Con Lab UKIP Lib Dem Green Others Lead
8 June 2017 2017 Election – 54.6% 32.7% 2.5% 7.9% 1.9% 0.3% 21.9%
24 Apr–5 May 2017 YouGov 1,339 56% 19% 9% 12% 2% 1% 37%
7 May 2015 2015 Election – 49.0% 22.0% 16.2% 8.2% 3.9% 0.5% 27.0%

London

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample
size 		Lab Con UKIP Lib Dem Green Others Lead
8 June 2017 2017 Election – 54.5% 33.2% 1.3% 8.8% 1.8% 0.5% 21.3%
26–31 May 2017 YouGov 1,000 50% 33% 3% 11% 2% 1% 17%
19–23 May 2017 YouGov 1,006 50% 34% 2% 11% 2% 1% 16%
22 Apr–3 May 2017 YouGov 1,040 41% 36% 6% 14% 3% 1% 5%
18 Apr 2017 Prime Minister Theresa May announces her intention to seek a general election to be held on 8 June 2017
24–28 Mar 2017 YouGov 1,042 37% 34% 9% 14% 5% 1% 3%
1 Dec 2016 Richmond Park by-election
16 Jun 2016 Tooting by-election
15–19 Apr 2016 YouGov/LBC 1,017 46% 30% 13% 7% 4% 1% 16%
4–6 Jan 2016 YouGov/LBC 1,156 44% 37% 11% 4% 2% 2% 7%
8 Jun–12 Aug 2015 YouGov/LBC 3,436 42% 38% 9% 5% 4% 1% 4%
7 May 2015 2015 Election – 43.7% 34.9% 8.1% 7.7% 4.9% 0.8% 8.8%

South East

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample
size 		Con Lab UKIP Lib Dem Green Others Lead
8 June 2017 2017 Election 4,635,741 54.6% 28.6% 2.3% 10.5% 3.1% 1.0% 26.0%
24 Apr–5 May 2017 YouGov 2,062 56% 19% 6% 15% 3% 1% 37%
20 Oct 2016 Witney by-election
7 May 2015 2015 Election 4,394,360 50.8% 18.3% 14.7% 9.4% 5.2% 1.5% 32.5%

South West

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample
size 		Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP Green Others Lead
8 June 2017 2017 Election – 51.4% 29.1% 15.0% 1.1% 2.3% 1.2% 22.3%
24 Apr–5 May 2017 YouGov 1,378 52% 22% 16% 6% 3% 1% 30%
7 May 2015 2015 Election – 46.5% 17.7% 15.1% 13.6% 5.9% 1.2% 28.8%

Polls of individual constituencies

[edit]

Battersea

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample
size 		Con Lab Lib Dem Others Lead
8 Jun 2017 2017 Election Result N/A 41.5% 45.9% 8.0% 4.6% 4.4%
9–10 May 2017 Survation/Chris Coghlan 503 46% 38% 13% 5% 8%
7 May 2015 2015 Election Result N/A 52.4% 36.8% 4.4% 6.4% 15.6%

Brighton Pavilion

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample
size 		Green Lab Con UKIP Lib Dem† Others Lead
8 Jun 2017 2017 Election Result N/A 52.3% 26.8% 19.2% 1.1% — 0.7% 25.5%
27 Apr-1 May 2017 ICM Unlimited 1,001 47% 23% 25% 3% 2% 0% 22%
7 May 2015 2015 Election Result – 41.8% 27.3% 22.8% 5.0% 2.8% 0.4% 14.6%

†The Liberal Democrats did not field a candidate in Brighton Pavilion.

Edinburgh South

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample
size 		Lab SNP Con Green† Lib Dem Others† Lead
8 Jun 2017 2017 Election Result N/A 54.9% 22.5% 19.7% — 2.9% — 32.4%
3–4 April 2017 Survation/Stop Brexit Alliance 530 40% 30% 20% 7% 3% 1% 10%
7 May 2015 2015 Election Result – 39.1% 33.8% 17.5% 4.2% 3.7% 1.6% 5.3%

†There was neither a Scottish Green nor any "other" candidates fielded Edinburgh South.

Kensington

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample
size 		Con Lab Lib Dem Green UKIP Others Lead
8 Jun 2017 2017 Election Result N/A 42.2% 42.2% 12.2% 2.0% — 1.4% 0.05%
25–27 Apr 2017 Survation/Stop Brexit Alliance 522 46% 29% 17% 7% 1% 0% 17%
7 May 2015 2015 Election Result – 52.3% 31.1% 5.6% 5.1% 4.5% 1.5% 21.2%

Tatton

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample
size 		Con Lab UKIP† Lib Dem Others Lead
8 Jun 2017 2017 Election Result N/A 58.6% 28.5% — 9.0% 4.0% 30.1%
22 Mar 2017 Survation/38 Degrees 507 58% 17% 9% 12% 4% 41%
7 May 2015 2015 Election Result – 58.6% 18.3% 10.8% 8.5% 3.8% 40.3%

†UKIP did not field a candidate in Tatton.

Preferred prime minister polling

[edit]

Some opinion pollsters have asked voters which party leader they would prefer as Prime Minister – Theresa May (Conservative Party) or Jeremy Corbyn (Labour Party). The questions differ slightly from pollster to pollster:

  • Opinium, Lord Ashcroft and YouGov: "Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?"
  • Kantar Public: "If you had to choose between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn, who do you think would make the best leader for Britain?"
  • Ipsos MORI: "Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister, the Conservative’s [sic] Theresa May, or Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn?"
  • Survation: "Which of the following party leaders do you think would make the best Prime Minister?"
  • ComRes: "For each of these pairs of statements, which one comes closest to your view? - Jeremy Corbyn would make a better Prime Minister than Theresa May/Theresa May would make a better Prime Minister than Jeremy Corbyn"
  • ICM: "Putting aside which party you support, and only thinking about your impression of them as leaders, which one of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister for Britain?"

May vs Corbyn

[edit]

2017

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample
size 		Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn None of these Not sure Lead
5-7 Jun ComRes 2,051 48% 39% — 14% 9%
4–6 Jun Opinium 3,002 42% 29% 19% 10% 13%
2–3 Jun Survation 1,103 50% 36% — 15% 14%
31 May–2 Jun ComRes 2,038 49% 34% — 17% 15%
30 May–1 Jun Ipsos MORI 1,046 50% 35% 6% 8% 15%
30–31 May Opinium 2,006 42% 26% 21% 12% 16%
30–31 May YouGov/The Times 1,875 43% 30% — 27% 13%
25–30 May Kantar Public Archived 14 August 2017 at the Wayback Machine 1,199 38% 23% 23% 15% 15%
26–27 May Survation/Good Morning Britain 1,009 53% 30% — 17% 23%
24–26 May ICM/The Sun on Sunday 2,044 48% 27% — 25% 21%
24–26 May ComRes 2,024 51% 30% — 19% 21%
24–25 May YouGov/The Times 2,052 45% 28% — 27% 17%
23–24 May Opinium 2,002 43% 26% 21% 11% 17%
18–22 May Kantar Public Archived 6 June 2017 at the Wayback Machine 1,200 38% 24% 23% 14% 14%
16–17 May YouGov/The Times 1,861 46% 23% — 31% 23%
16–17 May Opinium 2,003 45% 22% 21% 12% 23%
15–17 May Ipsos MORI 1,053 56% 29% 8% 6% 27%
11–15 May Kantar Public Archived 22 June 2017 at the Wayback Machine 1,201 41% 18% 22% 19% 23%
12–13 May Survation 1,016 58% 24% — 19% 34%
9–12 May Opinium 2,003 45% 19% 24% 12% 26%
9-10 May YouGov/The Times 1,651 49% 21% — 30% 28%
4–8 May Kantar Public Archived 14 August 2017 at the Wayback Machine 1,201 40% 17% 24% 19% 23%
5–6 May Survation 1,005 60% 21% — 19% 39%
2-3 May Opinium 2,005 46% 18% 25% 11% 28%
2-3 May YouGov/The Times 2,066 49% 21% — 29% 28%
20–24 Apr Kantar Public Archived 8 July 2017 at the Wayback Machine 2,003 43% 17% 20% 20% 26%
25–28 Apr Opinium/The Observer 2,007 44% 19% 25% 12% 25%
25–26 Apr YouGov/The Times 1,590 48% 18% — 33% 30%
21–25 Apr Ipsos MORI[permanent dead link‍][27] 1,004 61% 23% 6% 7%[28] 38%
20–24 Apr Kantar Public Archived 26 April 2017 at the Wayback Machine[29] 2,003 44% 18% 23% 16% 26%
19–20 Apr Opinium/Observer 2,003 49% 14% 26% 11% 35%
18–19 Apr YouGov/The Times 1,727 54% 15% — 31% 39%
18 Apr Prime Minister Theresa May announces her intention to seek a general election
12–13 Apr YouGov/The Times 2,069 50% 14% — 36% 36%
11–13 Apr Opinium/Observer 1,651 47% 14% 28% 11% 33%
5–6 Apr YouGov/The Times 1,651 49% 16% — 35% 33%
21–28 Mar Lord Ashcroft Polls 10,153 55% 18% — 27% 37%
26–27 Mar YouGov/The Times 1,957 51% 13% — 36% 38%
20–21 Mar YouGov/The Times 1,627 47% 14% — 39% 33%
14–17 Mar Opinium/Observer 2,007 45% 14% 29% 12% 31%
13–14 Mar YouGov/The Times 1,631 48% 14% — 38% 34%
27–28 Feb YouGov/The Times 1,666 49% 15% — 36% 34%
21–22 Feb YouGov/The Times 2,060 49% 15% — 36% 34%
14–16 Feb Opinium/Observer 2,004 46% 13% 29% 12% 33%
12–13 Feb YouGov/The Times 2,052 49% 15% — 36% 34%
31 Jan–1 Feb Opinium/Observer 2,005 43% 14% 29% 14% 29%
30–31 Jan YouGov/The Times 1,705 48% 16% — 36% 32%
23–24 Jan YouGov/The Times 1,643 47% 15% — 38% 32%
10–12 Jan Opinium/Observer 2,007 40% 16% 28% 15% 24%
9–10 Jan YouGov/The Times 1,660 45% 17% — 38% 28%
3–4 Jan YouGov/The Times 1,740 47% 14% — 39% 33%

2016

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Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample
size 		Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn None of these Not sure Lead
18–19 Dec YouGov/The Times 1,595 44% 16% — 41% 28%
13–16 Dec Opinium/The Observer 2,000 42% 16% 28% 13% 26%
4–5 Dec YouGov/The Times 1,667 49% 16% — 35% 33%
28–29 Nov YouGov/The Times 1,624 45% 18% — 37% 27%
15–18 Nov Opinium/The Observer 2,005 45% 17% 25% 13% 28%
14–15 Nov YouGov/The Times 1,717 48% 18% — 34% 30%
1–4 Nov Opinium/The Observer 2,001 45% 16% 25% 13% 29%
31 Oct-1 Nov YouGov/The Times 1,655 47% 17% — 36% 30%
24–25 Oct YouGov/The Times 1,655 48% 16% — 36% 32%
11–12 Oct YouGov/The Times 1,669 51% 18% — 31% 33%
13–14 Sep YouGov/The Times 1,732 50% 18% — 33% 32%
30–31 Aug YouGov/The Times 1,687 52% 21% — 27% 31%
22–23 Aug YouGov/The Times 1,660 50% 19% — 30% 31%
16–17 Aug YouGov/The Times 1,677 51% 19% — 30% 32%
8–9 Aug YouGov/The Times 1,692 52% 18% — 29% 34%
1–2 Aug YouGov/The Times 1,722 52% 18% — 30% 34%
25–26 Jul YouGov/The Times 1,680 52% 18% — 30% 34%
13 Jul Theresa May becomes the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
23 Jun The UK votes to leave the EU; David Cameron announces he will resign as Prime Minister
5 May UK elections, 2016 including the Ogmore and Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough by-elections
11–12 Apr YouGov/The Times 1,693 23% 30% — 46% 7%

Cameron vs Corbyn

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2016

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample
size 		David Cameron Jeremy Corbyn None of these Not sure Lead
11–12 Apr YouGov/The Times 1,693 32% 25% — 42% 7%

2015

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample
size 		David Cameron Jeremy Corbyn None of these Not sure Lead
18–19 Dec YouGov/The Times 1,595 49% 23% — 29% 28%
13–16 Dec Opinium/The Observer 2,000 42% 16% 28% 13% 26%
25–28 Sep ComRes 2,024 54% 30% — 16% 24%

Multiple party leaders

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Some polls ask voters to choose between multiple party leaders. The questions vary by pollster:

  • Lord Ashcroft: "Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?"
  • ComRes: "Who of the following would make the best Prime Minister after the upcoming General Election?"
  • YouGov: "Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?"

2017

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample
size 		Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn Tim Farron Paul Nuttall Don't Know Lead
27 April–1 May Lord Ashcroft Polls 40,329 64% 25% 11% — — 39%
27–28 Apr YouGov/Sunday Times 1,612 45% 16% 6% 2% 32% 29%
20–21 Apr YouGov/Sunday Times 1,590 46% 12% 6% 1% 35% 34%
19–20 Apr ComRes/Sunday Mirror Archived 22 April 2017 at the Wayback Machine 2,074 62% 25% 10% 4% — 37%

2016

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample
size 		Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn Tim Farron Lead
11–22 Aug Lord Ashcroft Polls 8,001 67% 25% 8% 42%

Hypothetical polling

[edit]
Hypothetical polling
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample
size 		Boris Johnson Jeremy Corbyn Don't
Know 		Lead
11–12 Apr 2016 YouGov/The Times 1,693 34% 29% 36% 5%
17–18 Dec 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,598 43% 29% 28% 14%
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample
size 		George Osborne Jeremy Corbyn Don't
Know 		Lead
11–12 Apr 2016 YouGov/The Times 1,693 21% 34% 45% 13%
17–18 Dec 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,598 39% 27% 34% 12%

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b c d YouGov was worried they would get this final poll wrong as in 2015, and the poll suggested a hung parliament which they doubted. YouGov made last minute small methodology changes which transferred 2% from Labour to Conservative, increasing predicted Conservative lead from 3% to 7%. Peter Kellner wrote in 2022 this "turned an excellent poll into a mediocre one".[3][4]
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf bg bh bi bj bk bl bm Includes those expressing a voting intention for Plaid Cymru.
  3. ^ a b c d Telephone.
  4. ^ a b This survey included respondents from Northern Ireland.
  5. ^ GB forecast only
  6. ^ Electoral Calculus counts Speaker John Bercow in the Conservative total

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Westminster Voting Intention". OpinionBee.uk. Retrieved 16 October 2016.
  2. ^ a b "Results of the 2017 General Election". BBC News. BBC. Retrieved 10 June 2017.
  3. ^ Kellner, Peter (8 June 2022). "Why do polling firms like YouGov tweak polls? Because they are scared of being wrong". The Guardian. Retrieved 9 June 2022.
  4. ^ Stone, Jon (8 June 2022). "YouGov 'banned' release of 2017 leader debate poll because it was 'too good for Labour'". The Independent. Retrieved 9 June 2022.
  5. ^ "Election campaigning suspended after London Bridge attack". Independent.co.uk. 4 June 2017. Archived from the original on 24 May 2022.
  6. ^ "Election 2015: Results – National". BBC. Retrieved 9 May 2015.
  7. ^ "Election 2015: Results – Northern Ireland". BBC. Retrieved 9 May 2015.
  8. ^ Revell, Timothy (9 June 2017). "How YouGov's experimental poll correctly called the UK election". New Scientist. Retrieved 9 June 2017.
  9. ^ a b Hanretty, Chris. "2017 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast". electionforecast.co.uk. Retrieved 31 May 2017.
  10. ^ a b "General Election Prediction". electoralcalculus.co.uk. Retrieved 31 May 2017.
  11. ^ "Ashcroft Model update: absent UKIP, and Labour's enthusiasm question". lordashcroftpolls.com. 19 May 2017.
  12. ^ Combined probabilistic estimate
  13. ^ a b "COMBINED FORECAST FOR GE2017: SECOND UPDATE". 2 June 2017.
  14. ^ "CONSTITUENCY FORECASTS, June 2017, New Statesman". 31 May 2017. Archived from the original on 13 August 2018. Retrieved 1 June 2017.
  15. ^ a b "Voting intention and seat estimates". Retrieved 6 June 2017.
  16. ^ a b "The Britain Elects Nowcast". June 2017. Archived from the original on 5 June 2017. Retrieved 7 June 2017.
  17. ^ a b "#GE17 UK General Election 2017 – 6 June projection". Scenaripolitici.com (in Italian). 6 June 2017. Retrieved 7 June 2017.
  18. ^ "Forecast #GE2017 – 8th June 2017". Forecast UK. 8 June 2017.
  19. ^ "Spreadex UK General Election Update, 7th June 2017 | Spreadex | Financial Spread Betting". www.spreadex.com. 7 June 2017. Retrieved 20 July 2020.
  20. ^ "Election 2017: The Ashcroft Model". Lord Ashcroft Polls. 12 May 2017. Retrieved 17 May 2017.
  21. ^ "Dapresy". dashboards.lordashcroftpolls.com. Archived from the original on 17 May 2021. Retrieved 2 June 2017.
  22. ^ "Politics Spread Betting | Spreadex | The Spread Experts". www.spreadex.com. Retrieved 20 July 2020.
  23. ^ "Results of the 2017 General Election". BBC. Retrieved 10 June 2017.
  24. ^ "Results of the 2017 General Election". BBC. Retrieved 10 June 2017.
  25. ^ including Green
  26. ^ "Results of the 2017 General Election". BBC. Retrieved 10 June 2017.
  27. ^ Ipsos MORI's figures for 'don't know' are significantly lower than other pollsters on this question as they only prompt for May and Corbyn, with don't know/other/none included if respondents offer it unprompted
  28. ^ 1% of respondents chose 'Other' and a further 1% said 'no difference'.
  29. ^ The question used by Kantar Public differs slightly in its wording from other pollsters. They ask: "If you had to choose between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn, who do you think would make the best leader for Britain?"
[edit]
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