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Opinion polling for the 2019 Guatemalan general election

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This page lists public opinion polls conducted for the 2019 Guatemalan general election, which was held in on 16 June 2019. Because no candidate won a majority, a run-off occurred on 11 August 2019.[1]

Second round

[edit]
Polling Firm Date Sample size Giammattei
Vamos 		Torres
UNE 		None Lead
Second round 11 August — 57.95 42.05 — 15.90
Average[2] 10 July–10 August 6,021 53.23 46.76 (N/A) 6.47
CID-Gallup[3] 29 July–5 August 1.216 54.9 45.1 -- --
Prodatos[4] 27 July–3 August 1.201 50.3 32.1 17.6 18.2
OPol Consultores[5] 24–26 July 2.400 44.7 49.1 6.1 4.4
CID-Gallup[6] 9–14 July 1.204 40.6 33.4 25.9 7.2
First round 16 June — 12.1 22.1 — 10.0
CID-Gallup[7] 1–7 June 1.204 11.6 22.6 22.9 1.0
Prodatos[8] 27 May–5 June 1.004 54.0 32.0 14.0 22.0

Alternative scenarios

[edit]
Polling firm Date Sample size Arzú
PAN–Podemos 		Mulet
Humanist 		Torres
UNE 		None Lead
First round 16 June — — 11.2 25.5 — 14.3
First round 16 June — 6.1 — 25.5 — 19.4
Prodatos[8] 13 June 1,004 — 42.0 36.0 22.0 6.0
Prodatos[8] 13 June 1,004 46.0 — 33.0 21.0 13.0
CID-Gallup[7] 1–7 June 1,204 36.0 — 33.0 31.0 3.0

First round

[edit]

After resolutions

[edit]
Polling firm Date Sample size Torres
UNE 		Giammattei
Vamos 		Arzú
PAN–P 		Mulet
PHG 		T. Cabrera
MLP 		Farchi
VIVA 		F. Cabrera
Todos 		Estrada
CREO 		Others None Lead
Presidential election 16 June — 25.54 13.95 6.08 11.21 10.37 5.90 3.13 3.75
Prodatos[8] 13 June 1,004 20.2 14.4 8.0 8.5 7.6 3.2 3.0 2.8 16.6 15.7 5.8
CID-Gallup[7] 30 May–7 June 1,204 22.6 11.6 9.2 6.4 5.5 2.8 2.8 1.3 15.1 22.7 11.0
CID-Gallup[9] 21 May-25 May 1,202 21.0 12.0 9.0 7.0 5.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 10.0 28.0 9.0
OPol Consultores[10] 20 May-23 May 2,200 23.36 10.77 13.18 8.63 3.22 1.72 0.63 1.22 11.99 25.28 10.18

Before resolutions

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Aldana
Semilla 		Arzú
PAN–P 		Escobar
PC 		Giammattei
Vamos 		Torres
UNE 		Ríos
Valor 		N/A Others Lead
CID-Gallup[11] 15 May 1,747 8.0 8.0 2.0 9.0 21.0 14.0 24.0 22.0 7.0
On May 15, 2019, Thelma Aldana is out of the elections.
On May 13, 2019, Zury Rios is out of the elections.
TResearch 15 April 1,000 23.7 — — 10.8 17.1 15.7 — 32.7 6.6
TResearch 14 April 1,000 24.1 — — 11.0 16.5 16.0 — 32.4 7.6
TResearch 13 April 1,000 24.4 — — 11.5 16.3 15.7 — 32.1 8.1
TResearch 12 April 1,000 24.1 — — 11.5 14.8 16.2 — 33.4 7.9
TResearch 11 April 1,000 24.5 — — 10.8 14.8 16.1 — 33.8 8.4
TResearch 10 April 1,000 24.6 — — 11.7 14.1 15.8 — 33.8 8.8
TResearch 9 April 1,000 24.9 — — 11.8 14.2 15.7 — 33.4 9.2
TResearch 8 April 1,000 25.2 — — 12.1 14.8 15.6 — 32.3 9.6
TResearch 7 April 1,000 25.1 — — 11.7 14.4 15.4 — 33.4 9.7
TResearch 6 April 1,000 25.3 — — 11.8 14.3 14.7 — 33.9 10.6
TResearch 5 April 1,000 25.0 — — 11.6 14.7 14.3 — 34.6 10.3
TResearch 4 April 1,000 25.1 — — 11.6 15.3 13.8 — 34.2 9.6
TResearch 3 April 1,000 24.6 — — 12.0 14.5 13.5 — 35.4 10.1
TResearch 2 April 1,000 24.2 — — 12.2 15.0 13.4 — 35.2 9.2
TResearch 1 April 1,000 23.8 — — 12.5 15.5 13.3 — 34.9 8.3
Prodatos[12] 19–27 March 1,200 9.5 3.8 1.1 7.4 20.7 15.9 26.1 24 4.8
March 18, 2019, the electoral campaign begins.
CID-Gallup[13] 16–25 February 1,258 10.7 2.8 3.1 5.8 17.7 7.9 40.9 11.1 7
Consulta Mitofsky[14] 8–11 February 1,000 28.1 — — 14.4 6.1 17.6 8.5 21.2 10.5
CID-Gallup[15] 24 January–4 February 1,815 10 2 3 5 17 7 46 10 7

Favorable or unfavorable opinions

[edit]

Favorable opinions

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Aldana
Semilla 		Arzú
PAN–P 		Escobar
PC 		Estrada
UCN 		Galdámez
FCN 		Giammattei
Vamos 		Montenegro
EG 		Torres
UNE 		Ríos
Valor
Consulta Mitofsky[14] 8–11 February 1,000 36 8 — 11 2 22 12 9 31

Unfavorable opinions

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Aldana
Semilla 		Arzú
PAN–P 		Escobar
PC 		Estrada
UCN 		Galdámez
FCN 		Giammattei
Vamos 		Montenegro
EG 		Mulet
PHG 		Torres
UNE 		Ríos
Valor
Consulta Mitofsky[14] 8–11 February 1,000 27 56 — 30 62 25 32 — 66 28

Most favorite for president

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Aldana
Semilla 		Arzú
PAN–P 		Escobar
PC 		Galdámez
FCN 		Giammattei
Vamos 		Montenegro
EG 		Mulet
PHG 		Torres
UNE 		Ríos
Valor
Consulta Mitofsky[14] 8–11 February 1,000 35 — — — — — — 9 —

Least favorite for president

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Aldana
Semilla 		Arzú
PAN–P 		Escobar
PC 		Galdámez
FCN 		Giammattei
Vamos 		Torres
UNE 		Ríos
Valor
CID-Gallup[7] 1–7 June 1,204 — 3.3 — 1.8 2.2 34.1 —
CID-Gallup[11] 8–13 May 1,747 10 2 — — — 28 3
CID-Gallup[13] 16–25 February 1,258 6.2 3.5 — 3.2 3.4 21.2 6.5
Consulta Mitofsky[14] 8–11 February 1,000 12.6 — — — 2.0 40 4.4

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Fernanda Nunes (6 June 2019). "Explainer: Guatemala's Presidential Election". AS/COA. Retrieved 17 May 2022.
  2. ^ GEUN, GEUN (11 August 2019). "Final Polling Average". youtube.com.
  3. ^ Gramajo, Jessica (7 August 2019). "Esto revela la encuesta electoral entre Torres y Giammattei". soy502.com (in Spanish).
  4. ^ "Encuesta Libre: Intención de voto segunda vuelta elecciones Guatemala". Prensa Libre (in Spanish). 8 August 2019.
  5. ^ Marín, Claudia (6 August 2019). "Sandra Torres encabeza segunda ronda en elecciones de Guatemala". elmundo.cr (in Spanish).[permanent dead link‍]
  6. ^ Gramajo, Jessica (17 July 2019). "Encuesta revela quién va a la cabeza en la Segunda Vuelta". soy502.com (in Spanish).
  7. ^ a b c d Segunda Encuesta Electoral (junio de 2019)
  8. ^ a b c d Segunda Encuesta Libre (junio de 2019)
  9. ^ https://www.soy502.com/sites/default/files/informe_op_especial_guatemala_mayo_2019_luis_haug_-_cid_gallup_v3.pdf [bare URL PDF]
  10. ^ Torres, Arzú, Giammattei y Mulet lideran intención de votos, según estudio.
  11. ^ a b Estos son los resultados de la reciente encuesta de Cid Gallup
  12. ^ Cuatro candidatos acaparan mayor intención de voto
  13. ^ a b Nueva encuesta electoral de Cid-Gallup hasta finales de febrero
  14. ^ a b c d e "ASÍ VAN... ESTUDIO ELECTORAL GUATEMALA (FEB/2019)". Consulta Mitofsky (in Spanish). 13 February 2019. Archived from the original on 12 April 2019. Retrieved 14 February 2019.
  15. ^ "Carrera por la presidencia de Guatemala inicia". CID-Gallup (in Spanish). 13 February 2019. Archived from the original on 15 February 2019. Retrieved 14 February 2019.
Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 | Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Guatemalan_general_election
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