Opinion polling for the 2024 Pakistani general election

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In the run up to the 2024 Pakistani general election, various organisations have been carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intention throughout Pakistan and the approval rating of the civilian Pakistani government, first led by Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf until 10 April 2022 and then by Shehbaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (N), with the latter government being supported by the Pakistan Democratic Movement and the Pakistan People's Party. The results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 25 July 2018, to the present day.

Opinion polling near elections by top Pakistani election surveyors namely Gallup Pakistan, Center for Public Opinion Research, Institute of Public Opinion Research (IPOR) and IRIS showed that PMLN has regained its position against its rival PTI since June 2023, mainly due to return of Nawaz Sharif from exile and Supreme court’s decision disallowing bat symbol. Center for Public Opinion Research conducted a public opinion survey of the central Punjab a week before the 2024 elections where the Majority 41% of the respondents said that they will vote for PMLN during the upcoming general elections, while 34% said PTI and 7% said they will vote for TLP in upcoming general elections. As contrary to the general perception in the social and traditional media PMLN has emerged most popular party in Punjab province which have majority of seats in Pakistan National assembly comparable with 2013's elections when they received 41% of votes and now, they are standing around the same level at 45%. Whereas PTI support is steady at 35% as comparing to last July 2018 elections in Punjab. https://cpor.com.pk/ https://cpor.com.pk/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Political-Pulse-of-Central-Punjab.pdf [1] [2][3]


National Assembly Voting intention

[edit]

The results in the tables below (excluding the column on undecided voters and non-voters) exclude survey participants who said they wouldn't vote or they didn't know who they would vote for and add up to 100%. In polls that include undecided voters or non-voters, percentages are adjusted upwards in order to make the total equal 100%. Margins of error are also adjusted upwards at the same rate to account for the increase.

Nationwide

[edit]
Last date
of polling
Polling firm Link PTI PML(N) PPP MMA[a] TLP Other Ind. Lead Margin
of error
Sample
size
Undecideds &
Non-voters[b]
30 June 2023 Gallup Pakistan PDF 42% 20% 12% 4% 4% 5% 22% ±2.5% 3,500 13%
3 June 2022 IPOR PDF 39% 33% 12% 7% 4% 5% 6% ±2 - 3% 2,003 25%
21 March 2022 IPOR PDF 35% 33% 19% 6% 4% 3% 2% ±2 - 3% 3,509 16%
31 January 2022 Gallup Pakistan PDF 34% 33% 15% 6% 3% 9% 1% ±3 - 5% 5,688 33%
9 January 2022 IPOR PDF 31% 33% 17% 3% 3% 11% 1% 2% ±2 - 3% 3,769 11%
11 November 2020 IPOR PDF 36% 38% 13% 4% 3% 6% 2% ±3.22% 2,003 32%
13 August 2020 IPOR PDF 33% 38% 15% 3% 3% 8% 5% ±2.95% 2,024 26%
30 June 2020 IPOR PDF 24% 27% 11% 3% 2% 33% 3% ±2.38% 1,702 N/A[c]
24 June 2019 Gallup Pakistan PDF 31% 28% 15% 5% 21% 3% ±3 - 5% ~1,400 N/A
22 November 2018 IPOR /IRI PDF 43% 27% 15% 1% 1% 11% 1% 16% ±2.05% 3,991 22%
25 July 2018 2018 Elections ECP 31.8% 24.3% 13.0% 4.8% 4.2% 10.3% 11.5% 7.5% N/A 53,123,733 N/A

Punjab

[edit]
Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link PTI PML(N) PPP TLP Other Ind. Lead Sample
size
Undecideds &
Non-voters[b]
IPOR 24 January 2024 PDF 35% 45% 8% 5% 4% 8% 3313 3%
Gallup Pakistan 10 January 2024 PDF 34% 32% 11% 2% N/A 23%
Gallup Pakistan 30 June 2023 PDF 49% 33% 5% 7% 6% 16% N/A N/A[c]
IPOR 21 March 2022 PDF 34% 42% 6% 2% 16% 8% ~1,900 N/A[c]
Gallup Pakistan 31 January 2022 PDF 35% 43% 7% 3% 9% 3% 8% ~3,100 31%
IPOR 9 January 2022 PDF 31% 46% 5% 3% 15% 15% 2,035 N/A[c]
IPOR 11 November 2020 PDF 26% 39% 5% 2% 27% 1% 13% 1,089
2018 Elections 25 July 2018 ECP 33.6% 31.7% 5.4% 5.7% 4.8% 18.8% 1.9% 33,218,101 N/A

Sindh

[edit]
Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link PTI PPP MQM(P) MMA Other Ind. Lead Sample
size
Undecideds &
Non-voters[b]
Gallup Pakistan 10 January 2024 PDF 19% 42% 4% 16% 23% N/A 16%
Gallup Pakistan 30 June 2023 PDF 43.4% 42.2% 2.4% 1.2% 10.8% 1.2% N/A 17%
IPOR 21 March 2022 PDF 17% 44% 5% 34% 27% ~810 N/A[c]
Gallup Pakistan 31 January 2022 PDF 30% 34% 3% 3% 28% 2% 4% ~1,300 39%
IPOR 9 January 2022 PDF 13% 44% 7% 36% 31% 867 N/A[c]
IPOR 11 November 2020 PDF 13% 22% 1% 3% 61% 9% 467
2018 Elections 25 July 2018 ECP 14.5% 38.4% 7.7% 6.1% 25.9% 7.4% 23.6% 10,025,437 N/A

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

[edit]
Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link PTI PPP MMA ANP PML(N) Other Ind. Lead Sample
size
Undecideds &
Non-voters[b]
Gallup Pakistan 10 January 2024 PDF 45% 7% 18% 7% 9% 6% 27% N/A 8%
Gallup Pakistan 30 June 2023 PDF 81.2% 2.4% 1.2% 1.2% 14.1% 0.0% 67.1% N/A 15%
IPOR 21 March 2022 PDF 38% 8% 23% 8% 13% 10% 15% ~600 N/A[c]
Gallup Pakistan 31 January 2022 PDF 44% 8% 13% 6% 21% 7% 1% 23% ~970 28%
IPOR 9 January 2022 PDF 44% 7% 17% 11% 11% 10% 27% 641 N/A[c]
IPOR 11 November 2020 PDF 34% 4% 8% 3% 12% 26% 21% 331
2018 Elections 25 July 2018 ECP 39.3% 7.5% 18.9% 9.3% 10.7% 3.5% 10.8% 20.4% 6,611,287 N/A

Balochistan

[edit]
Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link PTI PPP PML(N) MMA BAP BNP NP Other Ind. Lead Sample
size
Undecideds &
Non-voters[b]
Gallup Pakistan 30 June 2023 PDF 36.0% 18.0% 11.0% 7.0% 28.0% 18% 3,500 N/A[c]
2018 Elections 25 July 2018 ECP 6.05% 3.09% 1.54% 15.28 24.44% 9.04% 4.91% 23.33% 16.95% 9.16% 1,899,565 82,178

Islamabad Capital Territory

[edit]
Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link PTI PML(N) PPP TLP MMA Other Ind. Lead Sample
size
Undecideds &
Non-voters[b]
2018 Elections 25 July 2018 ECP 48.24% 24.88% 12.58% 4.66% 3.72% 1.28% 4.64% 23.36% 445,827

Government approval rating

[edit]

The results in this table show polls that surveyed whether people approved or disapproved of either the overall (not on a single issue) performance of the federal government in Islamabad or the Prime Minister's overall performance since 18 August 2018.

The same rounding restrictions that were given in the previous section do not apply here, so occasionally, results will add up to 101% or 99% due to rounding errors, and neutral respondents (when data is available for them) are counted in this table, unlike the last table.

Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link Approve Neutral Disapprove DK/NA Strongly
approve
Approve Neutral Disapprove Strongly
disapprove
DK/NA Net Margin of error Sample
size
Gallup Pakistan 21 February 2023 [1] 32% N/A 65% 3% 11% 21% N/A 27% 38% 3% -33% ±3 - 5% 1,760
NA 11 April 2022 Shehbaz Sharif is elected Prime Minister
10 April 2022 Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion
Gallup Pakistan 4 April 2022 PDF 46% N/A 54% N/A N/A -8% ±3 - 5% ~800
Gallup Pakistan 31 January 2022 PDF 36% 14% 48% 3% 15% 21% 14% 18% 30% 3% -12% ±3 - 5% 5,688
Gallup Pakistan 4 September 2021 PDF 48% N/A 45% 7% N/A +3% ±3 - 5% ~1,200
Gallup Pakistan 19 August 2020 PDF 38% 30% 31% 2% 22% 16% 30% 13% 18% 2% +7% ±3 - 5% 1,662
IPOR 13 August 2020 PDF 38% N/A 54% 7% 16% 22% N/A 17% 37% 7% -16% ±2.18% 2,024
Gallup Pakistan 15 February 2020 PDF 32% N/A 66% 1% 8% 24% N/A 19% 47% 1% -34% ±3 - 5% 1,208
Gallup Pakistan 30 September 2019 PDF 45% N/A 53% 2% 15% 32% N/A 16% 37% 2% -8% ±3 - 5% 1,237
Gallup Pakistan 24 June 2019 PDF 45% N/A 53% 2% 21% 24% N/A 32% 21% 2% -8% ±3 - 5% ~1,400
Gallup Pakistan 29 December 2018 PDF 51% N/A 46% 3% 13% 38% N/A 26% 20% 3% +5% ±2 - 3% ~1,141
IPOR 1 December 2018 PDF 47% N/A 27% 26% 17% 30% N/A 18% 9% 26% +20% ±2.17% 2,041
Pulse Consultant 28 November 2018 HTML 51% N/A 30% 19% N/A +21% ±2.07% 2,019
IPOR/IRI 22 November 2018 PDF 51% N/A 40% 5% 16% 40% N/A 28% 12% 5% +16% ±2.05% 3,991

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Certain polls only include data for the JUI(F) instead of the MMA, and in those cases data for the JUI(F) is used because the JUI(F) is the largest constituent party of the MMA and makes up most of its base.
  2. ^ a b c d e f This is a column that lists the percentage of undecided voters and non-voters in certain polls that publish this data. As some polls do not publish any data whatsoever on undecided voters and non-voters, the columns with survey participants that had a preference when polled are all that is needed to reach 100%. In surveys that do include data on non-voters and undecided voters, a scaling factor is applied to the margin of error and the rest of the data (for example, if the number of undecideds and non-voters equals 20%, each party would have their vote share scaled up by a factor of 100/80 (the formula is 100/(100-UndecidedPercentage)). This is done to keep consistency between the different polls and the different types data they provide.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i This poll or crosstabulation did not include any data about undecided voters or non-voters and cut them out completely from the published results.

References

[edit]
  1. ^ gallup.com.pk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/PWR-Jan-2024-For-Public-Release-.pdf
  2. ^ A Public Opinion Survey of Voters of Punjab (Election 2024) (ipor.com.pk)
  3. ^ https://www.iriscommunications.com.pk/

Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 | Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_Pakistani_general_election
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