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Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election

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Opinion polling for UK general elections
2015 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
2017 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
2019 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
2024 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
Next election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval

Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election is being carried out continually by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The dates of these opinion polls range from the previous general election on 4 July 2024 to the present.

The next general election must be held no later than 15 August 2029 under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. The Act mandates that any Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met – unless it is dissolved earlier at the request of the prime minister – and polling day occurs no more than 25 working days later.

Graphical summary

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The chart below shows opinion polls conducted since the 2024 general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS). The bar on the left represents the previous election, and the bar on the right represents the latest possible date of the next election.

National poll results

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Most national opinion polls do not cover Northern Ireland, which has different major political parties from the rest of the United Kingdom. This distinction is made in the tables below in the area column, where "GB" means Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales), and "UK" means the entire United Kingdom. Plaid Cymru only stand candidates in Wales and the Scottish National Party only stand candidates in Scotland. Due to rounding total figures might not add up to 100%.

2024

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For political events during the year, see 2024 in United Kingdom politics and government and 2024 in the United Kingdom.
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Area Sample
size 		Lab Con Reform Lib Dems Green Others Lead
20–21 Nov Techne N/A UK 1,632 29% 27% 17% 12% 7%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
 2
19–21 Nov More in Common N/A GB 2,002 25% 28% 19% 13% 8%
7%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 3%
 3
14–18 Nov Deltapoll N/A GB 1,749 29% 27% 18% 12% 8%
6%
SNP on 4%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 1%
 2
13–14 Nov JL Partners The Sun / Politico GB 2,024 27% 26% 20% 12% 9%
6%
SNP on 3%
Other on 3%
 1
13–14 Nov Techne N/A GB 1,643 28% 27% 17% 13% 7%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
 1
11–13 Nov Opinium The Observer GB 1,646 30% 24% 21% 12% 8%
5%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 1%
 6
8–11 Nov More in Common N/A GB 2,007 27% 29% 19% 11% 8%
5%
SNP on 2%
 2
6–7 Nov Techne N/A UK 1,636 29% 25% 18% 13% 7%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
 4
2 Nov Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
30 Oct – 1 Nov More in Common N/A GB 2,007 28% 26% 18% 14% 8%
5%
SNP on 3%
Other on 3%
 2
30–31 Oct Opinium The Observer GB 1,548 31% 24% 20% 10% 10%
5%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 0%
Other on 3%
 7
30–31 Oct BMG Research The i GB 1,511 28% 29% 17% 13% 8%
5%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
 1
30–31 Oct Techne N/A UK 1,632 30% 24% 18% 14% 7%
7%
SNP on 2%
Other on 5%
 6
23–24 Oct Techne N/A UK 1,644 29% 24% 19% 13% 7%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
 5
16–18 Oct Opinium The Observer GB 1,565 31% 24% 20% 12% 8%
5%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
 7
16–17 Oct Techne N/A UK 1,636 28% 25% 19% 13% 7%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
 3
11–13 Oct JL Partners The Telegraph GB 2,000 29% 25% 19% 14% 7%
5%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
 4
9–10 Oct Techne N/A UK 1,651 29% 24% 19% 12% 7%
9%
SNP on 2%
Other on 7%
 5
9–10 Oct More in Common The Times GB 2,000 27% 27% 21% 13% 7%
5%
SNP on 2%
Other on 3%
 Tie
5–7 Oct More in Common Politico GB 2,023 29% 28% 19% 11% 7%
5%
SNP on 2%
Other on 3%
 1
4–7 Oct Deltapoll N/A GB 2,108 29% 25% 18% 14% 8%
6%
SNP on 4%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 1%
 4
2–4 Oct Opinium The Observer GB 1,491 31% 24% 20% 11% 8%
5%
SNP on 3%
Other on 2%
 7
2–3 Oct BMG Research i GB 1,562 30% 25% 20% 13% 7%
4%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 0%
Other on 1%
 5
2–3 Oct Techne N/A UK 1,643 31% 23% 18% 13% 7%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
 8
25–26 Sep Techne N/A UK 1,638 32% 22% 18% 13% 7%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
 10
24–25 Sep More in Common N/A GB 2,080 30% 26% 18% 13% 8%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
 4
18–19 Sep Techne The Independent UK 1,641 33% 21% 18% 13% 7%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
 12
10–12 Sep More in Common Politico GB 1,542 29% 25% 18% 14% 8%
8%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 4%
 4
29 Aug BMG Research i GB 1,560 30% 26% 19% 12% 8%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
 4
7–8 Aug We Think N/A GB 1,278 33% 20% 21% 11% 8%
8%
SNP on 3%
Independents on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 1%
 12
5–7 Aug BMG Research i GB 1,523 33% 24% 18% 12% 8% 4% 9
30 Jul – 5 Aug Stonehaven N/A GB 2,048 34% 22% 17% 12% 9% 6% 12
25–26 Jul We Think N/A GB 2,012 36% 22% 17% 11% 7%
7%
Independents on 3%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 1%
 14
11–12 Jul We Think N/A GB 2,005 39% 20% 16% 11% 9% 5% 19
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – UK – 33.7% 23.7% 14.3% 12.2% 6.8% 9.3% 10.0
GB 34.7% 24.4% 14.7% 12.5% 6.9% 6.8% 10.3

Seat projections

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Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample

size

Area Lab Con Lib Dems SNP Reform Green Plaid Cymru Others Majority
2 Nov Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – UK 411 121 72 9 5 4 4
23
Sinn Féin: 7
Independents: 6
DUP: 5
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 1
UUP: 1
TUV: 1
Speaker: 1
 Lab 174

Sub-national poll results

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Northern Ireland

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Sinn Féin DUP Alliance UUP SDLP TUV Others Lead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election[1] – 27.0% 22.1% 15.0% 12.2% 11.1% 6.2% 6.4% 4.9

Scotland

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Lab SNP Con Lib Dems Reform Green Others Lead
1–15 Nov 2024 Survation Progress Scotland 3,016 28% 31% 15% 6% 13% 5%
3%
Alba on 3%
 3
30 Oct – 1 Nov 2024 Norstat The Sunday Times 1,013 23% 30% 15% 10% 14% 6% 2% 7
27 Sep 2024 Russell Findlay is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives
10–13 Sep 2024 Survation Progress Scotland 2,059 31% 31% 14% 9% 11% 3% 1% Tie
5–11 Sep 2024 Opinium The Sunday Times 1,028 25% 32% 14% 8% 11% 7% 2% 7
20–22 Aug 2024 Norstat The Sunday Times 1,011 32% 29% 12% 8% 12% 5% 2% 3
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – 35.3% 30.0% 12.7% 9.7% 7.0% 3.8% 1.6% 5.3

Wales

[edit]
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Lab Con Reform Plaid Cymru Lib Dems Green Others Lead
18 Oct – 4 Nov 2024 Survation Reform UK 2,006 33% 18% 21% 13% 9% 5% 0% 12
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election[2] – 37.0% 18.2% 16.9% 14.8% 6.5% 4.7% 1.9% 18.8

Approval polling

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Leadership approval

[edit]

Various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge the opinions that voters hold towards political leaders. The polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Sample
size 		Keir Starmer Kemi Badenoch Nigel Farage Ed Davey Carla Denyer Adrian Ramsay
Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net
14–18 Nov 2024 Deltapoll 1,749 29% 61% –32 24% 38% –14 – – – –
13–14 Nov 2024 JL Partners 2,024 25% 48% –23 22% 23% –1 31% 41% –10 20% 21% –1 12% 12% - 11% 10% +1
11–13 Nov 2024 Opinium 2,068 25% 50% –25 20% 25% –5 29% 37% –8 23% 19% +3 – –
8-11 Nov 2024 Ipsos 1,139 23% 52% –29 21% 39% –18 28% 48% –20 21% 31% –10 17% 26% –9 16% 26% –10
8–11 Nov 2024 More In Common 2,111 24% 48% –24 17% 19% –2 – 16% 21% –5 – –
8–10 Nov 2024 YouGov 2,099 28% 61% –33 21% 41% –20 30% 61% –31 24% 31% –7 7% 14% –7 4% 12% –8
2 Nov Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Sample
size 		Keir Starmer Rishi Sunak Nigel Farage Ed Davey Carla Denyer Adrian Ramsay
Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net
30–31 Oct 2024 BMG Research 1,511 23% 49% –26 28% 33% –5 28% 35% –7 19% 19% - – –
30–31 Oct 2024 Opinium 2,016 26% 50% –24 23% 45% –22 28% 40% –12 23% 19% +4 – –
18–20 Oct 2024 Savanta 2,135 30% 48% –18 28% 49% –21 31% 46% –14 22% 28% –5 15% 20% –5 13% 20% –7
16–18 Oct 2024 Opinium 2,007 21% 53% –32 20% 45% –25 25% 39% –14 22% 20% +2 – –
9–10 Oct 2024 More In Common 2,073 18% 56% –38 18% 49% –31 – – – –
5–7 Oct 2024 More In Common 2,023 21% 54% –33 19% 51% –32 – – – –
4–7 Oct 2024 Deltapoll 2,108 30% 61% –31 27% 65% –38 – – – –
4–6 Oct 2024 YouGov 2,121 27% 63% –36 24% 66% –42 28% 63% –35 25% 32% –7 – –
2–4 Oct 2024 Opinium 2,055 24% 52% –28 18% 47% –29 26% 42% –16 21% 21% - – –
2–3 Oct 2024 BMG Research 1,562 25% 50% –25 23% 41% –18 29% 32% –4 21% 20% +1 – –
25–27 Sep 2024 Opinium 2,003 23% 53% –30 20% 46% –26 29% 40% –11 22% 23% –1 – –
24–25 Sep 2024 More In Common 2,080 21% 48% –27 17% 52% –35 – – – –
20–22 Sep 2024 YouGov 2,137 30% 60% –30 24% 68% –44 28% 63% –35 27% 36% –9 – –
18–20 Sep 2024 Opinium 2,050 24% 50% –26 21% 46% –25 27% 39% –12 24% 21% +3 – –
9 Sep 2024 More In Common 2,024 25% 45% –20 – – – – –
29 Aug 2024 BMG Research 1,560 28% 44% –16 22% 46% –24 28% 37% –9 19% 21% –2 – –
24–27 Aug 2024 More In Common 2,015 27% 43% –16 17% 58% –41 – – – –
14–16 Aug 2024 Opinium 2,000 32% 38% –6 20% 50% –30 24% 43% –19 21% 21% - – –
7–8 Aug 2024 We Think 1,278 33% 42% –9 22% 57% –35 29% 44% –15 18% 36% –18 14% 28% –14 10% 26% –16
5–7 Aug 2024 BMG Research 1,523 30% 33% –3 19% 42% –23 23% 37% –14 21% 16% +5 – –
5–6 Aug 2024 YouGov 2,163 37% 53% –16 23% 71% –48 25% 67% –42 – – –
5 Aug 2024 United Kingdom riots end
31 Jul – 2 Aug 2024 Opinium 2,063 35% 32% +3 18% 48% –30 25% 40% –15 24% 19% +5 19% 17% +2 19% 17% +2
30–31 Jul 2024 YouGov 2,233 40% 49% –9 23% 70% –47 27% 62% –35 27% 33% –6 9% 12% –3 3% 10% –7
25–26 Jul 2024 We Think 2,012 42% 37% +5 25% 61% –36 30% 50% –20 21% 36% –15 16% 34% –18 12% 32% –20
17–19 Jul 2024 Opinium 2,010 38% 20% +18 20% 42% –22 – 25% 18% +7 21% 15% +6 21% 15% +6
8–14 Jul 2024 Morning Consult – 45% 25% +20 – – – – –
11–12 Jul 2024 We Think 2,005 38% 15% +23 21% 31% –10 – – – –
5–8 Jul 2024 YouGov[3] 2,102 44% 47% –3 23% 70% –47 27% 65% –38 34% 29% +5 13% 16% –3 7% 14% –7
5–6 Jul 2024 Ipsos[4] 1,141 40% 33% +7 21% 57% –36 26% 52% –26 29% 26% +3 – –

Party approval

[edit]
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Sample
size 		Labour Conservative Reform Lib Dems Green
Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net
8-11 Nov 2024 More In Common 2,011 21% 47% –26 16% 43% –27 – 17% 23% –6 –
8-10 Nov 2024 Yougov 2,099 30% 61% –31 25% 67% –42 26% 59% –33 38% 42% –4 41% 39% +2
2 Nov 2024 Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
9-10 Oct 2024 More In Common 2,072 24% 51% –27 15% 52% –36 – – –
5-7 Oct 2024 More In Common 2,015 24% 51% –27 15% 53% –38 – – –
2,082 24% 51% –27 15% 53% –38 – – –
20–22 Sep 2024 YouGov 2,132 32% 59% –27 24% 67% –43 26% 62% –36 37% 45% –8 40% 42% –2
24–27 Aug 2024 More In Common 2,015 25% 45% –20 15% 57% –42 – – –
5–6 Aug 2024 YouGov 2,163 39% 53% –14 23% 70% –47 – – –
5–8 Jul 2024 YouGov[3] 2,102 47% 46% +1 21% 72% –51 28% 62% –34 45% 37% +8 46% 38% +8
5–6 Jul 2024 Ipsos[4] 1,141 40% 34% +6 20% 59% –39 25% 51% –26 29% 28% +1 33% 28% +6

Preferred prime minister

[edit]

Some pollsters ask voters which of the party leaders they would prefer as prime minister.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Sample
size 		Keir Starmer Kemi Badenoch Nigel Farage Ed Davey Carla Denyer Adrian Ramsay None Don't know Lead
2 Nov 2024 Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Sample
size 		Keir Starmer Rishi Sunak Nigel Farage Ed Davey Carla Denyer Adrian Ramsay None Don't know Lead
18–20 Oct 2024 Savanta 2,135 39% 32% – – – – 45% 11% 7
2–4 Oct 2024 Opinium 2,003 25% 19% – – – – 45% – 6
25–27 Sep 2024 Opinium 2,049 27% 18% – – – – 46% 10% 9
18–20 Sep 2024 Opinium 2,050 28% 18% – – – – 44% 10% 10
28–30 Aug 2024 Opinium 2,040 34% 15% – – – – 40% 11% 19
14–16 Aug 2024 Opinium 1,996 36% 16% – – – – 37% 12% 20
7–8 Aug 2024 We Think 1,278 26% 10% 20% 5% 2% 2% 20% 15% 6
31 Jul – 2 Aug 2024 Opinium 2,063 38% 14% – – – – 37% 11% 24
25–26 Jul 2024 We Think 2,012 30% 11% 18% 4% 3% 1% 18% 15% 12
17–19 Jul 2024 Opinium 2,010 37% 14% – – – – 34% 15% 23
11–12 Jul 2024 We Think 2,005 30% 11% 14% 5% 4% 1% 20% 13% 16

Other polling

[edit]

Hypothetical polling

[edit]

Different Conservative Party leaders: Voting intention and seat projection

[edit]

For the 2024 Conservative Party leadership election, Electoral Calculus conducted a multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) opinion poll on behalf of Jack Lewy of the Robert Jenrick campaign, asking the general public how they would vote if respectively Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick were elected leader of the Conservatives.

Dates

conducted

Pollster Client Area Sample

size

Hypothetical Conservative leader Lab Con Lib Dems SNP Reform Green Plaid Cymru Others Majority / lead
11–15 Oct 2024 Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus (MRP) Jack Lewy / Robert Jenrick GB 6,289 Kemi Badenoch Seats 332 151 63 48 25 4 4 5 Lab 14
Vote share 29% 22% 12% 4% 21% 10% 1% 1% 7
Robert Jenrick Seats 311 178 58 48 24 4 4 5 Hung (Labour 15 short)
Vote share 28% 23% 12% 4% 20% 11% 1% 1% 5

Hypothetical preferred Prime Minister polling

[edit]
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Sample
size 		Keir Starmer Kemi Badenoch Robert Jenrick None Don't know Lead
30–31 Oct 2024 YouGov 2,234 27% 20% – 47% 6% 7
29% – 21% 45% 5% 8
18–20 Oct 2024 Savanta 2,135 41% 23% – – 35% 18
41% – 25% – 35% 16

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Northern Ireland election results 2024 | Constituency map". BBC News. Archived from the original on 8 July 2024. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
  2. ^ "Wales election results 2024 | Constituency map". BBC News. Archived from the original on 5 July 2024. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
  3. ^ a b Smith, Matthew (9 July 2024). "Keir Starmer favourability rises 8pts following election victory". YouGov UK.
  4. ^ a b "5th – 6th July 2024: PUBLIC: Political Pulse: Campaign Tracker Week 7: Post election: Adults aged 18+ in GB" (PDF). Ipsos.
Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 | Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
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