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Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election

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Opinion polling for UK general elections
2015 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
2017 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
2019 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
2024 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
Next election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval

Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election is being carried out continually by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.[1] The dates of these opinion polls range from the previous general election on 4 July 2024 to the present.

The next general election must be held no later than 15 August 2029 under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. The Act mandates that any Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met – unless it is dissolved earlier at the request of the prime minister – and polling day occurs no more than 25 working days later.

Graphical summary

[edit]

The chart below shows opinion polls conducted since the 2024 general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS). The bar on the left represents the previous election, and the bar on the right represents the latest possible date of the next election.

National poll results

[edit]

Most opinion polls do not cover Northern Ireland, which has different major political parties from the rest of the United Kingdom. This distinction is made in the tables below in the area column, where "GB" means Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales), and "UK" means the entire United Kingdom. Plaid Cymru only stand candidates in Wales and the Scottish National Party only stand candidates in Scotland. Due to rounding, total figures might not add up to 100%.

2025

[edit]
For political events during the year, see 2025 in United Kingdom politics and government and 2025 in the United Kingdom.
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Area Sample
size 		Lab Con Ref LD Grn SNP PC Others Lead
1 May Local elections in England, mayoral elections, Runcorn and Helsby by-election
30 Apr Find Out Now[2] N/A GB 1,990 21% 19% 29% 13% 11% 3% 1% 3% 8
27–28 Apr YouGov[3] The Times/Sky News GB 2,214 23% 20% 26% 15% 9% 3% 1% 2% 3
25–27 Apr More in Common[4] N/A GB 2,009 24% 23% 24% 15% 8% 2% 1% 4% Tie
23–25 Apr Opinium[5] The Observer GB 2,050 26% 21% 26% 11% 9% 3% 1% 2% Tie
23–24 Apr Techne[6] N/A UK 1,642 25% 21% 25% 14% 8% 2% – 5% Tie
23 Apr Find Out Now[7] N/A GB 2,139 20% 20% 28% 14% 13% 3% 0% 2% 8
21–22 Apr YouGov[8] The Times/Sky News GB 2,012 23% 20% 25% 16% 10% 3% 1% 2% 2
17–21 Apr More in Common[9] N/A GB 2,004 23% 23% 25% 14% 8% 3% 1% 4% 2
16 Apr Find Out Now[10] N/A GB 2,288 22% 20% 28% 14% 10% 3% 1% 3% 6
13–14 Apr YouGov[11] The Times/Sky News GB 1,691 24% 21% 23% 14% 11% 3% 1% 2% 1
11–14 Apr More in Common[12] N/A GB 2,277 24% 23% 24% 14% 8% 3% 1% 4% Tie
11–14 Apr Focaldata[13] N/A GB 1,585 24% 24% 23% 13% 9% 2% 1% 4% Tie
10–14 Apr Lord Ashcroft Polls[14][a] N/A GB 5,263 27% 24% 21% 11% 11% 3% 0% 3% 3
9–11 Apr Opinium[15] The Observer GB 2,050 27% 22% 26% 12% 7% 3% 1% 3% 1
9–10 Apr Techne[16] N/A UK 1,644 24% 22% 24% 15% 8% 2% – 5% Tie
9 Apr Find Out Now[17] N/A GB 2,546 22% 21% 26% 14% 11% 3% 1% 3% 4
6–7 Apr YouGov[18] The Times/Sky News GB 1,775 24% 22% 23% 17% 9% 3% 1% 2% 1
4–7 Apr More in Common[19] N/A GB 2,058 24% 23% 24% 17% 7% 2% 0% 1% Tie
4–6 Apr Freshwater Strategy[20] [a] City AM GB 1,250 22% 27% 28% 14% 5% 2% – 3% 1
2–3 Apr Techne[21] N/A UK 1,631 24% 23% 24% 13% 8% 3% – 5% Tie
2 Apr Find Out Now[22] N/A GB 2,768 22% 20% 28% 13% 11% 3% 1% 3% 6
14 Mar – 1 Apr More in Common (MRP)[23] N/A GB 16,176 24% 24% 24% 13% 8% 2% – 4% Tie
30–31 Mar YouGov[24] The Times/Sky News GB 2,392 24% 21% 23% 14% 11% 3% 1% 3% 1
28–31 Mar More in Common[25] N/A GB 2,081 21% 26% 25% 13% 7% 2% 1% 4% 1
26–28 Mar Opinium[26] The Observer GB 2,050 26% 22% 26% 12% 8% 3% 1% 2% Tie
21–28 Mar Find Out Now
Electoral Calculus[27] (MRP) 		PLMR[28] GB 5,180 24% 22% 27% 12% 10% 3% 1% 3% 3
26–27 Mar BMG Research[29] The i Paper GB[30] 1,544 26% 24% 23% 14% 8% 3% 1% 1% 2
26–27 Mar Techne[31] N/A UK 1,642 25% 23% 24% 14% 8% 2% – 4% 1
26 Mar Find Out Now[32] N/A GB 2,745 23% 22% 26% 12% 11% 3% 1% 2% 3
23–24 Mar YouGov[33] The Times/Sky News GB 2,333 23% 22% 22% 16% 10% 3% 1% 3% 1
22–24 Mar More in Common[34] N/A GB 2,432 24% 25% 24% 12% 10% 3% 1% 3% 1
19–21 Mar Opinium[35] The Observer GB 2,078 26% 21% 26% 13% 8% 3% 1% 3% Tie
19–20 Mar Techne[36] N/A UK 1,644 27% 23% 23% 14% 7% 2% – 4% 4
19 Mar Find Out Now[37] N/A GB 2,770 22% 21% 27% 14% 11% 3% 1% 2% 5
16–17 Mar YouGov[38] The Times/Sky News GB 2,315 26% 22% 24% 14% 9% 3% 1% 2% 2
14–17 Mar Deltapoll[39] N/A GB 1,974 25% 25% 23% 11% 9% 3% 1% 2% Tie
14–17 Mar More in Common[40] N/A GB 2,432 25% 24% 25% 12% 7% 2% 1% 4% Tie
13–17 Mar Lord Ashcroft Polls[41][a] N/A GB 5,111 30% 24% 19% 10% 11% 3% 0% 3% 6
12–13 Mar Techne[42] N/A UK 1,638 27% 22% 24% 14% 7% 2% – 4% 3
12 Mar Find Out Now[43] N/A GB 2,686 24% 21% 27% 11% 10% 3% 1% 2% 3
9–10 Mar YouGov[44] The Times/Sky News GB 2,291 24% 22% 23% 15% 9% 3% 1% 3% 1
7–10 Mar More In Common[45] N/A GB 2,041 25% 23% 25% 14% 8% 2% 1% 2% Tie
6–9 Mar JL Partners[46] The Sun GB 2,012 26% 24% 23% 14% 7% 3% 1% 3% 2
5–7 Mar Opinium[47] The Observer GB 1,498 28% 20% 27% 12% 8% 3% 1% 2% 1
5–6 Mar Techne[48] N/A UK 1,632 28% 21% 25% 13% 7% 2% – 4% 3
5 Mar Find Out Now[49] N/A GB 2,670 25% 21% 26% 12% 10% 3% 1% 2% 1
2–3 Mar YouGov[50] The Times GB 2,222 26% 21% 25% 14% 9% 3% 1% 2% 1
1–2 Mar Freshwater Strategy[51] [a] City AM GB 1,215 24% 23% 27% 15% 7% 3% – 2% 3
28 Feb – 2 Mar More in Common[52] N/A GB 2,010 26% 24% 24% 13% 7% 2% 1% 2% 2
26–28 Feb Focaldata[53] N/A GB 1,008 24% 22% 21% 14% 8% 3% 1% 5% 2
26–27 Feb Techne[54] N/A UK 1,643 26% 22% 25% 13% 8% 2% – 4% 1
26 Feb Find Out Now[55] N/A GB 3,363 23% 21% 28% 13% 10% 3% 1% 1% 5
25–26 Feb BMG Research[56] The i GB 1,586 26% 22% 27% 12% 8% 3% 1% 1% 1
23–24 Feb YouGov[57] Sky News / The Times GB 2,415 24% 22% 25% 16% 8% 3% 1% 2% 1
21–24 Feb More in Common[58] N/A GB 2,013 23% 25% 24% 16% 8% 2% 0% 2% 1
19–21 Feb Opinium[59] The Observer GB 2,050 28% 21% 26% 12% 8% 3% – 2% 2
19–20 Feb Techne[60] N/A UK 1,639 25% 22% 26% 12% 7% 3% – 5% 1
19 Feb Find Out Now[61] N/A GB 2,393 24% 20% 28% 12% 10% 2% 1% 2% 4
14–18 Feb More in Common[62] N/A GB 4,101 25% 23% 26% 12% 7% 2% 1% 3% 1
16–17 Feb YouGov[63] N/A GB 2,436 25% 21% 27% 14% 9% 3% 1% 1% 2
13–17 Feb Lord Ashcroft Polls[64][a] N/A GB 5,099 28% 23% 23% 9% 11% 2% 0% 3% 5
12–13 Feb Techne[65] N/A UK 1,637 26% 22% 25% 12% 8% 2% – 5% 1
12 Feb Find Out Now[66] N/A GB 3,421 23% 21% 29% 12% 9% 3% 1% 2% 6
9–10 Feb YouGov[67] N/A GB 2,419 25% 21% 26% 14% 9% 3% 1% 1% 1
7–10 Feb More in Common[68] N/A GB 2,005 25% 23% 25% 12% 8% 2% 1% 3% Tie
5–7 Feb Opinium[69] The Observer GB 1,493 27% 22% 26% 11% 8% 3% 1% 2% 1
5–6 Feb Techne[70] N/A UK 1,645 25% 23% 25% 13% 7% 2% – 5% Tie
5 Feb Find Out Now[71] N/A GB 2,487 25% 18% 29% 13% 10% 3% 1% 2% 4
2–3 Feb YouGov[72] Sky News[73] GB 2,465 24% 21% 25% 14% 9% 3% 1% 2% 1
31 Jan – 3 Feb More in Common[74] N/A GB 2,044 24% 26% 24% 13% 6% 3% 1% 3% 2
31 Jan – 2 Feb Freshwater Strategy[75] [a] City AM GB 1,200 29% 28% 22% 9% 7% 3% – 2% 1
29–30 Jan Techne[76] N/A UK 1,633 26% 23% 24% 12% 7% 3% – 5% 2
29 Jan Find Out Now[77] N/A GB 2,487 23% 21% 27% 11% 10% 3% 1% 3% 4
28–29 Jan BMG Research[78] The i GB 1,514 25% 25% 24% 14% 8% 3% 1% 1% Tie
28–29 Jan Survation[79] N/A UK 1,670 27% 22% 24% 13% 8% 3% – 4% 3
26–27 Jan YouGov[80] The Times GB 2,523 27% 22% 23% 14% 9% 3% 1% 2% 4
24–27 Jan More in Common[81] N/A GB 2,009 25% 24% 25% 13% 7% 2% 1% 3% Tie
22–29 Jan Find Out Now
Electoral Calculus[82] (MRP) 		PLMR GB 5,743 23% 23% 24% 11% 8% 3% 1% 6% 1
22–24 Jan Opinium[83] The Observer GB 2,050 28% 21% 27% 11% 8% 3% 1% 2% 1
22–23 Jan Whitestone Insight [84] Daily Express GB 2,012 25% 20% 24% 12% 13% 3% – 3% 1
22–23 Jan Techne[85] N/A UK 1,643 25% 24% 24% 13% 7% 2% – 5% 1
22 Jan Find Out Now[86] N/A GB 2,380 22% 23% 26% 12% 10% 3% 1% 3% 3
19–20 Jan YouGov[87] The Times GB 2,466 26% 22% 24% 14% 9% 3% 1% 2% 2
17–20 Jan More in Common[88] N/A GB 2,016 24% 25% 25% 12% 7% 3% 1% 3% Tie
17–20 Jan Deltapoll[89] Institute for Government GB 1,500 29% 25% 22% 11% 8% 3% – 2% 4
16–20 Jan Lord Ashcroft Polls[90][a] N/A GB 5,251 28% 25% 20% 11% 9% 3% 0% 3% 3
15–16 Jan Techne[91] N/A UK 1,624 26% 25% 23% 12% 7% 2% – 5% 1
15 Jan Find Out Now[92] N/A GB 2,386 24% 25% 25% 12% 10% 3% 1% 2% Tie
10–14 Jan JL Partners[93] The Sunday Times GB 2,007 26% 25% 22% 13% 9% 2% 1% 3% 1
12–13 Jan YouGov[94] The Times GB 2,279 26% 22% 25% 14% 8% 3% 1% 2% 1
10–13 Jan More in Common[95] N/A GB 1,587 24% 25% 24% 12% 8% 3% 1% 3% 1
8–10 Jan Opinium[96] The Observer GB 2,050 29% 23% 24% 10% 9% 2% 1% 2% 5
8 Jan Find Out Now[97] N/A GB 2,076 25% 20% 25% 11% 11% 3% 1% 2% Tie
6–8 Jan More in Common[98] N/A GB 2,011 26% 26% 22% 12% 7% 3% 1% 2% Tie
4–6 Jan Freshwater Strategy[99] [a] City AM GB 1,207 28% 29% 23% 12% 5% 3% – 1% 1
30 Dec – 3 Jan Deltapoll[100] Mail on Sunday GB 1,532 30% 23% 22% 12% 9% 3% 1% 1% 7

2024

[edit]
For political events during the year, see 2024 in United Kingdom politics and government and 2024 in the United Kingdom.
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Area Sample
size 		Lab Con Ref LD Grn SNP PC Others Lead
19–23 Dec Deltapoll[101] The Mirror GB 1,552 29% 25% 21% 12% 8% 4% 0% 1% 4
18–20 Dec Opinium[102] The Observer GB 1,472 29% 23% 22% 11% 10% 3% 1% 2% 6
18–19 Dec Techne[103] N/A UK 1,642 27% 26% 21% 12% 7% 2% – 5% 1
12–16 Dec Survation[104] N/A UK 2,030 30% 25% 20% 11% 7% 2% 1% 2% 5
11–12 Dec Techne[105] N/A UK 1,634 27% 25% 22% 11% 7% 2% – 6% 2
11 Dec Find Out Now[106] N/A GB 2,659 26% 23% 25% 11% 9% 3% 1% 2% 1
6–10 Dec More in Common[107] N/A GB 2,432 26% 26% 19% 13% 8% 3% 1% 4% Tie
6–9 Dec Stonehaven[108] (MRP) N/A GB 2,072 28% 24% 21% 13% 8% 3% 1% 2% 4
5–6 Dec Techne[109] N/A UK 1,644 27% 25% 21% 12% 7% 2% – 6% 2
4 Dec Find Out Now[110] N/A GB 2,607 23% 26% 24% 11% 9% 3% 1% 2% 2
29 Nov – 2 Dec More in Common[111] N/A GB 2,002 26% 28% 21% 13% 7% 3% 1% 2% 2
27–29 Nov Opinium[112] The Observer GB 2,050 29% 25% 21% 10% 9% 3% 1% 2% 4
27–28 Nov Techne[113] N/A UK 1,648 28% 27% 18% 13% 6% 2% – 6% 1
27 Nov Find Out Now[114] N/A GB 2,316 25% 27% 22% 12% 9% 3% 1% 2% 2
26–27 Nov BMG Research[115] The i GB 1,531 29% 27% 20% 12% 7% 3% 0% 2% 2
26–27 Nov More in Common[116] N/A GB 1,972 27% 30% 18% 12% 8% 2% 1% 2% 3
20–21 Nov Techne[117] N/A UK 1,632 29% 27% 17% 12% 7% 2% – 6% 2
19–21 Nov More in Common[118] N/A GB 2,002 25% 28% 19% 13% 8% 3% 1% 3% 3
14–18 Nov Deltapoll[119] N/A GB 1,749 29% 27% 18% 12% 8% 4% 1% 1% 2
13–14 Nov JL Partners[120] The Sun / Politico GB 2,024 27% 26% 20% 12% 9% 3% – 3% 1
13–14 Nov Techne[121] N/A GB 1,643 28% 27% 17% 13% 7% 2% – 6% 1
11–13 Nov Opinium[122] The Observer GB 1,646 30% 24% 21% 12% 8% 3% 1% 1% 6
8–11 Nov More in Common[123] N/A GB 2,007 27% 29% 19% 11% 8% 2% 1% 4% 2
6–7 Nov Techne[124] N/A UK 1,636 29% 25% 18% 13% 7% 2% – 6% 4
2 Nov Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
31 Oct – 16 Dec More in Common[125] (MRP) N/A GB 11,024 25% 26% 21% 14% 8% 2% 1% 3% 1
30 Oct – 1 Nov More in Common[126] N/A GB 2,007 28% 26% 18% 14% 8% 3% 1% 3% 2
30–31 Oct Opinium[127] The Observer GB 1,548 31% 24% 20% 10% 10% 2% 0% 3% 7
30–31 Oct BMG Research[128] The i GB 1,511 28% 29% 17% 13% 8% 2% 1% 2% 1
30–31 Oct Techne[129] N/A UK 1,632 30% 24% 18% 14% 7% 2% – 5% 6
23–24 Oct Techne[130] N/A UK 1,644 29% 24% 19% 13% 7% 2% – 6% 5
16–18 Oct Opinium[131] The Observer GB 1,565 31% 24% 20% 12% 8% 2% 1% 2% 7
16–17 Oct Techne[132] N/A UK 1,636 28% 25% 19% 13% 7% 2% – 6% 3
11–13 Oct JL Partners[133] The Telegraph GB 2,000 29% 25% 19% 14% 7% 2% 1% 2% 4
9–10 Oct Techne[134] N/A UK 1,651 29% 24% 19% 12% 7% 2% – 7% 5
9–10 Oct More in Common[135] The Times GB 2,000 27% 27% 21% 13% 7% 2% 1% 1% Tie
5–7 Oct More in Common[136] Politico GB 2,023 29% 28% 19% 11% 7% 2% 0% 3% 1
4–7 Oct Deltapoll[137] N/A GB 2,108 29% 25% 18% 14% 8% 4% 1% 1% 4
2–4 Oct Opinium[138] The Observer GB 1,491 31% 24% 20% 11% 8% 3% – 2% 7
2–3 Oct BMG Research[139] i GB 1,562 30% 25% 20% 13% 7% 3% 0% 1% 5
2–3 Oct Techne[140] N/A UK 1,643 31% 23% 18% 13% 7% 2% – 6% 8
25–26 Sep Techne[141] N/A UK 1,638 32% 22% 18% 13% 7% 2% – 6% 10
24–25 Sep More in Common[142] N/A GB 2,080 30% 26% 18% 13% 8% 3% 1% 2% 4
18–19 Sep Techne[143] The Independent UK 1,641 33% 21% 18% 13% 7% 2% – 6% 12
10–12 Sep More in Common[144] Politico GB 1,542 29% 25% 18% 14% 8% 3% 1% 4% 4
29 Aug BMG Research[145] i GB 1,560 30% 26% 19% 12% 8% 3% 1% 2% 4
7–8 Aug We Think[146] N/A GB 1,278 33% 20% 21% 11% 8% 3% 1% 4% 12
5–7 Aug BMG Research[147] i GB 1,523 33% 24% 18% 12% 8% – – 4% 9
30 Jul – 5 Aug Stonehaven[148] N/A GB 2,048 34% 22% 17% 12% 9% – – 6% 12
25–26 Jul We Think[149] N/A GB 2,012 36% 22% 17% 11% 7% 2% 1% 4% 14
11–12 Jul We Think[150] N/A GB 2,005 39% 20% 16% 11% 9% 2% – 3% 19
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – UK – 33.7% 23.7% 14.3% 12.2% 6.8% 2.5% 0.7% 6.1% 10.0
GB 34.7% 24.4% 14.7% 12.5% 6.9% 2.6% 0.7% 3.5% 10.3

Most recent polling by pollster

[edit]

This section collates the most recent opinion poll released by each pollster.

Pollster Dates
conducted 		Lab Con Ref LD Grn Lead
30 Day Aggregate 24% 21% 26% 14% 9% Ref +2 over Lab
Find Out Now 30 Apr 2025 21% 19% 29% 13% 11% Ref +8 over Lab
YouGov 27–28 Apr 2025 23% 20% 26% 15% 9% Ref +3 over Lab
More In Common 25–27 Apr 2025 24% 23% 24% 15% 8% Lab-Ref Tie
Opinium 23–25 Apr 2025 26% 21% 26% 11% 9% Lab-Ref Tie
Techne 23–24 Apr 2025 25% 21% 25% 14% 8% Lab-Ref Tie
Focaldata 11–14 Apr 2025 24% 24% 23% 13% 9% Lab-Con Tie
BMG Research 26–27 Mar 2025 26% 24% 23% 14% 8% Lab +2 over Con
Deltapoll 14–17 Mar 2025 25% 25% 23% 11% 9% Lab-Con Tie
JL Partners 6–9 Mar 2025 26% 24% 23% 14% 7% Lab +2 over Con
Survation 28–29 Jan 2025 27% 22% 24% 13% 8% Lab +3 over Ref
Whitestone Insight 22–23 Jan 2025 25% 20% 24% 12% 13% Lab +1 over Ref
Stonehaven 6–9 Dec 2024 28% 24% 21% 13% 8% Lab +4 over Con
We Think 7–8 Aug 2024 33% 20% 21% 11% 8% Lab +12 over Ref
General election (GB) 4 Jul 2024 34.7% 24.4% 14.7% 12.5% 6.9% Lab +10.3 over Con

Preferred prime minister

[edit]

Some pollsters ask voters which of the party leaders they would prefer as prime minister.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Sample
size 		Keir Starmer Kemi Badenoch Nigel Farage Ed Davey Other None Don't know Lead
23–25 Apr 2025 Opinium[5] 2,050 25% 14% – – – 45% 16% 11
17–21 Apr 2025 More in Common[151] 2,004 26% 11% 23% – – 40% – 3
11–14 Apr 2025 More in Common[152] 2,277 26% 11% 22% – – 41% – 4
10–14 Apr 2025 Lord Ashcroft Polls[14] 5,263 33% 15% – – – – 52% 18
33% 9% 20% – – – 37% 13
9–11 Apr 2025 Opinium[15] 2,050 28% 13% – – – 43% 15% 15
6–7 Apr 2025 YouGov[153] 2,178 21% 5% 16% 7% – 37% 13% 5
4–6 Apr 2025 Freshwater Strategy[20] 1,250 32% 40% – – – 24% 5% 8
28–31 Mar 2025 More in Common[154] 2,081 22% 11% 22% – – 45% – Tie
26–28 Mar 2025 Opinium[26] 2,050 26% 13% – – – 45% 16% 13
22–24 Mar 2025 More in Common[155] 2,077 25% 12% 22% – – 41% – 3
19–21 Mar 2025 Opinium[35] 2,078 25% 14% – – – 45% 15% 11
14–17 Mar 2025 More in Common[156] 2,432 26% 11% 22% – – 41% – 4
13–17 Mar 2025 Lord Ashcroft Polls[41] 5,111 34% 14% – – – – 52% 20
35% 8% 19% – – – 38% 16
7–10 Mar 2025 More in Common[157] 2,041 26% 10% 21% – – 43% – 5
6–9 Mar 2025 JL Partners[46] 2,012 35% 24% – – – – 40% 9
43% – 33% – – – 25% 10
– 32% 34% – – – 34% 2
32% 17% 28% – – – 23% 4
5–7 Mar 2025 Opinium[47] 2,050 28% 13% – – – 42% 17% 15
28 Feb – 3 Mar 2025 More in Common[158] 2,010 28% 12% 22% – – 38% – 6
1–2 Mar 2025 Freshwater Strategy[51] 1,215 36% 34% – – – 22% 8% 2
21–24 Feb 2025 More in Common[58] 2,013 22% 11% 23% – – 44% – 1
19–21 Feb 2025 Opinium[59] 2,050 25% 15% – – – 45% 15% 10
18 Feb 2025 Redfield & Wilton Strategies[159] 1,500 32% 27% – – – – 41% 5
36% – 37% – – – 26% 1
14–18 Feb 2025 More in Common[62] 4,101 23% 10% 25% – – 43% – 2
13–17 Feb 2025 Lord Ashcroft Polls[64] 5,099 29% 17% – – – – 54% 12
30% 9% 23% – – – 38% 7
7–10 Feb 2025 More in Common[68] 2,005 22% 13% 24% – – 41% – 2
6–7 Feb 2025 YouGov[160] 2,275 31% 20% – – – – – 11
36% – 26% – – – – 10
24% – – 16% – – – 8
– 22% 22% – – – – Tie
– 17% – 26% – – – 9
– – 25% 30% – – – 5
5–7 Feb 2025 Opinium[69] 2,050 24% 15% – – – 46% 15% 9
31 Jan – 3 Feb 2025 More in Common[74] 2,044 22% 12% 24% – – 42% – 2
31 Jan – 2 Feb 2025 Freshwater Strategy[75] 1,200 33% 37% – – – 24% 6% 4
28–29 Jan 2025 Survation[79] 2,010 34% 31% – – – – 44% 3
24–27 Jan 2025 More in Common[81] 2,009 21% 12% 23% – – 44% – 2
16–20 Jan 2025 Lord Ashcroft Polls[90] 5,231 29% 18% – – – – 53% 11
31% 11% 21% – – – 37% 10
17 Jan 2025 YouGov[161] 2,266 19% 9% 20% 8% – 34% – 1
10–14 Jan 2025 JL Partners[93] 2,007 29% 26% – – – – 44% 3
38% – 33% – – – 29% 5
10–13 Jan 2025 More in Common[162] 2,005 21% 12% 20% – – 47% – 1
8–10 Jan 2025 Opinium[96] 2,050 26% 16% – – – 42% 16% 10
4–6 Jan 2025 Freshwater Strategy[99] 1,207 34% 38% – – – 21% 7% 4
18–20 Dec 2024 Opinium[102] 2,010 25% 16% – – – 41% 17% 9
13–17 Dec 2024 Ipsos[163] 1,137 32% 18% – – – 27% – 14
37% – 25% – – 21% – 12
– 16% 23% – – 40% – 7
12–16 Dec 2024 Survation[104] 2,030 35% 30% – – – – 35% 5
6–10 Dec 2024 More in Common[164] 2,432 28% 23% – – – 49% – 5
26–27 Nov 2024 YouGov[165] 2,203 27% 22% – – – 4% 47% 5
2 Nov 2024 Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Sample
size 		Keir Starmer Rishi Sunak Nigel Farage Ed Davey Other None Don't know Lead
18–20 Oct 2024 Savanta[166] 2,135 39% 32% – – – 45% 11% 7
2–4 Oct 2024 Opinium[167] 2,003 25% 19% – – – 45% – 6
25–27 Sep 2024 Opinium[168] 2,049 27% 18% – – – 46% 10% 9
18–20 Sep 2024 Opinium[169] 2,050 28% 18% – – – 44% 10% 10
28–30 Aug 2024 Opinium[170] 2,040 34% 15% – – – 40% 11% 19
14–16 Aug 2024 Opinium[171] 1,996 36% 16% – – – 37% 12% 20
7–8 Aug 2024 We Think[146] 1,278 26% 10% 20% 5%
4%
Carla Denyer,Grn on 2%
Adrian Ramsay, Grn on 2%
 20% 15% 6
31 Jul – 2 Aug 2024 Opinium[172] 2,063 38% 14% – – – 37% 11% 24
25–26 Jul 2024 We Think[173] 2,012 30% 11% 18% 4%
4%
Carla Denyer,Grn on 3%
Adrian Ramsay, Grn on 1%
 18% 15% 12
17–19 Jul 2024 Opinium[174] 2,010 37% 14% – – – 34% 15% 23
11–12 Jul 2024 We Think[175] 2,005 30% 11% 14% 5%
5%
Carla Denyer,Grn on 4%
Adrian Ramsay, Grn on 1%
 20% 13% 16

Seat projections

[edit]

MRP polls

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Area Lab Con LD SNP Ref Grn Plaid Others Majority
14 Mar – 1 Apr 2025 More in Common[176] N/A 16,176 GB 165 165 67 35 180 4 5 10 Hung
(Ref 146 short)
21 – 28 Mar 2025 Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now[27] PLMR[28] 5,180 GB 180 133 49 30 227 4 4 5 Hung
(Ref 99 short)
22 – 29 Jan 2025 Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now[177] PLMR[178] 5,743 GB 174 178 57 37 175 4 2 5 Hung
(Con 148 short)
30 Nov 2024 – 5 Jan 2025 Focaldata[179] Hope not Hate[180] 17,790 GB 287 163 63 22 76 4 4 13 Hung
(Lab 39 short)
31 Oct – 16 Dec 2024 More in Common[125] N/A 11,024 GB 228 222 58 37 72 2 4 26[b] Hung
(Lab 98 short)
6–9 Dec 2024 Stonehaven[108] N/A 2,072 GB 278 157 47 24 120 3 2 19[b] Hung
(Lab 48 short)
2 Nov 2024 Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – UK 411 121 72 9 5 4 4
23
Sinn Féin: 7
Independents: 6
DUP: 5
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 1
UUP: 1
TUV: 1
Speaker: 1
 Lab 174

POLARIS projections

[edit]

Political Analysis through Regional and Local Insights System (POLARIS) is a novel model created by J.L. Partners, using council by-elections to predict election outcomes.[181] All models from January onwards are combined with a representative survey data, with the data used shifted to reflect the pollsters' most recent national polling.

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Area Lab Con LD SNP Ref Grn Plaid Oth Majority
Through March 2025 J.L. Partners[182] N/A 306,817 GB 218 136 70 41 135 5 3
39
Independents or Workers Party: 20
Northern Irish seats: 18
Speaker: 1

 Hung
(Lab 108 short)
Through January 2025 J.L. Partners[183] N/A 306,817 GB 200 190 70 42 102 7 4
34
Northern Irish seats: 18
Independents or Workers Party: 16
Speaker: 1

 Hung
(Lab 126 short)
Through December 2024 J.L. Partners[184] N/A 280,000 GB 256 208 66 6 71 5 4
33
Northern Irish seats: 18
Independents or Workers Party: 15
Speaker: 1


 Hung
(Lab 70 short)
2 Nov Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – UK 411 121 72 9 5 4 4
23
Sinn Féin: 7
Independents: 6
DUP: 5
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 1
UUP: 1
TUV: 1
Speaker: 1
 Lab 174

Sub-national poll results

[edit]

Northern Ireland

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Sinn Féin DUP Alliance UUP SDLP TUV Others Lead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election[185] – 27.0% 22.1% 15.0% 12.2% 11.1% 6.2% 6.4% 4.9

Scotland

[edit]
Graph of opinion polls conducted in Scotland
Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Lab SNP Con LD Ref Grn Others Lead
16–22 Apr 2025 Survation[186] Diffley Partnership 1,005 24% 33% 14% 9% 15% 5% 0% 9
15–20 Jan 2025 Find Out Now[187] The Herald 1,334 18% 31% 12% 10% 17% 7% 5% 13
11–14 Jan 2025 Norstat[188] The Sunday Times 1,026 18% 32% 13% 11% 17% 6% 3% 14
7–13 Jan 2025 Survation[189] N/A 1,024 24% 33% 14% 9% 15% 4% 1% 9
17–24 Dec 2024 Find Out Now[190] The National[191] 1,774 20% 34% 14% 9% 15% 6% 2% 14
4–6 Dec 2024 Norstat[192] The Sunday Times 1,013 20% 31% 14% 9% 15% 6%
4%
Alba on 3%
Other on 1%
 11
1–15 Nov 2024 Survation[193] Progress Scotland 3,016 28% 31% 15% 6% 13% 5%
3%
Alba on 2%
Other on 1%
 3
30 Oct – 1 Nov 2024 Norstat[194] The Sunday Times 1,013 23% 30% 15% 10% 14% 6%
2%
Alba on 1%
Other on 1%
 7
27 Sep 2024 Russell Findlay is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives
10–13 Sep 2024 Survation[195] Progress Scotland 2,059 31% 31% 14% 9% 11% 3%
1%
Alba on 1%
Other on 0%
 Tie
5–11 Sep 2024 Opinium[196] The Sunday Times[197] 1,028 25% 32% 14% 8% 11% 7% 2% 7
20–22 Aug 2024 Norstat[198] The Sunday Times 1,011 32% 29% 12% 8% 12% 5%
2%
Alba on 2%
Other on 1%
 3
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election[199] – 35.3% 30.0% 12.7% 9.7% 7.0% 3.8% 1.6% 5.3

Wales

[edit]
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Lab Con Ref PC LD Grn Oth Lead
10 Mar—3 Apr 2025 Survation[200] N/A 844 29% 15% 25% 18% 6% 6% 1% 4
3–5 Dec 2024 Darren Millar is elected leader of the Welsh Conservatives
18 Oct – 4 Nov 2024 Survation[201] Reform UK 2,006 33% 18% 21% 13% 9% 5% 0% 12
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election[202] – 37.0% 18.2% 16.9% 14.8% 6.5% 4.7% 1.9% 18.8

100 most rural constituencies

[edit]

In November 2024, Survation conducted a survey of the 100 "most rural" constituencies.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con Lab LD Ref Grn Others Lead
14–21 Nov 2024 Survation[203] Country Land and Business Association 1,007 34% 21% 18% 21% 7% 0% 13
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election (Survation)[203] – 33.9% 23.6% 19.1% 16.1% 6.0% 1.4% 10.4

Northern England and the Midlands

[edit]

In April 2025, Survation conducted a survey of Northern England and the Midlands.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Lab Con Ref LD Grn Others Lead
11–13 Apr 2025 Survation Friderichs Advisory Partners 2,032 27% 22% 30% 10% 9% 2% 3
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – 39.6% 23.8% 17.7% 7.5% 6.8% 4.6% 15.9

London

[edit]
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Lab Con LD Grn Ref Others Lead
30 Oct – 11 Nov 2024 Savanta[204] N/A ? 36% 24% 12% 12% 13% 3% 12
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – 43.0% 20.6% 11.0% 10.0% 8.7% 6.7% 22.7

Approval polling

[edit]

Leadership approval

[edit]

Various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge the opinions that voters hold towards political leaders. The polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Sample
size 		Keir Starmer Kemi Badenoch Nigel Farage Ed Davey Carla Denyer Adrian Ramsay
Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net
25–27 Apr 2025 More in Common 2,009 23% 56% –33 20% 33% –13 28% 39% –11 19% 26% –7 – –
23–25 Apr 2025 Opinium 2,050 22% 56% –34 20% 38% –18 29% 41% –12 20% 25% –5 – –
17–21 Apr 2025 More in Common 2,004 22% 56% –34 15% 40% –25 25% 42% –17 16% 30% –14 – –
13–14 Apr 2025 YouGov 2,162 28% 62% –34 16% 54% –38 27% 65% –38 24% 35% –11 8% 16% –8 4% 13% –9
11–14 Apr 2025 More in Common 2,277 21% 55% –34 14% 37% –23 25% 41% –16 17% 28% –11 – –
11–14 Apr 2025 Focaldata 1,585 20% 55% –35 19% 32% –13 29% 44% –15 21% 26% –5 12% 16% –4 –
9–11 Apr 2025 Opinium 2,050 25% 55% –30 19% 39% –20 28% 43% –15 22% 24% –2 – –
6–7 Apr 2025 YouGov 2,178 27% 60% –33 14% 52% –38 29% 47% –18 27% 30% –3 – –
4–7 Apr 2025 Deltapoll 1,524 24% 52% –28 – – – – –
4–7 Apr 2025 More in Common 2,058 23% 55% –32 17% 36% –19 27% 41% –14 20% 28% –8 – –
31 Mar – 1 Apr 2025 YouGov 2,213 16% 45% –29 – – – – –
28–31 Mar 2025 More in Common 2,081 21% 56% –35 15% 36% –21 26% 41% –15 17% 27% –10 – –
26–28 Mar 2025 Opinium 2,050 22% 54% –32 17% 38% –21 26% 42% –16 20% 22% –2 – –
26–27 Mar 2025 BMG Research 1,544 24% 54% –30 22% 24% –2 29% 36% –7 23% 16% +7 – –
21–26 Mar 2025 Ipsos 1,072 27% 47% –20 18% 40% –22 28% 43% –15 26% 29% –3 – –
22–24 Mar 2025 More in Common 2,077 22% 54% –32 16% 40% –24 25% 42% –17 16% 27% –11 – –
19–21 Mar 2025 Opinium 2,078 24% 53% –29 20% 35% –15 28% 40% –12 22% 21% +1 – –
16–17 Mar 2025 YouGov 2,081 32% 60% –28 18% 52% –34 27% 65% –38 27% 33% –6 8% 15% –7 5% 12% –7
14–17 Mar 2025 Ipsos 1,132 29% 46% –17 18% 44% –26 29% 49% –20 24% 30% –6 – –
14–17 Mar 2025 Deltapoll 1,974 31% 62% –31 28% 45% –17 – – – –
14–17 Mar 2025 More in Common 2,432 24% 51% –27 16% 35% –19 26% 40% –14 17% 24% –7 – –
13–14 Mar 2025 YouGov 2,155 32% 58% –26 – – – – –
10–11 Mar 2025 YouGov 2,076 30% 62% –32 16% 50% –34 26% 65% –39 25% 31% –6 – –
7–10 Mar 2025 More in Common 2,041 25% 51% –26 15% 37% –22 25% 43% –18 17% 25% –8 – –
6–9 Mar 2025 JL Partners 2,012 28% 47% –19 26% 31% –5 33% 42% –9 22% 25% –3 10% 17% –7 10% 18% –8
5–7 Mar 2025 Opinium 2,050 26% 49% –23 19% 36% –17 29% 39% –10 23% 21% +2 – –
4–5 Mar 2025 YouGov 2,147 31% 59% –28 17% 51% –34 30% 60% –30 27% 32% –5 7% 13% –6 4% 12% –8
3 Mar 2025 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,398 32% 46% –14 – – – – –
28 Feb – 3 Mar 2025 More in Common 2,010 24% 52% –28 15% 35% –20 26% 41% –15 16% 26% –10 – –
25–26 Feb 2025 BMG Research 1,586 24% 54% –30 23% 22% +1 32% 33% –1 23% 18% +5 – –
21–24 Feb 2025 More in Common 2,013 19% 58% –39 13% 37% –24 26% 38% –12 –
19–21 Feb 2025 Opinium 2,050 21% 55% –34 18% 38% –20 30% 38% –8 21% 22% –1
18 Feb 2025 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,500 30% 48% –18 – – –
14–18 Feb 2025 More in Common 4,101 20% 57% –37 15% 36% –21 30% 38% –8 16% 26% –10
16–17 Feb 2025 YouGov 2,436 26% 66% –40 17% 51% –34 30% 60% –30 27% 32% –5 7% 13% –5 4% 12% –8
12 Feb 2025 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 2,300 – 29% 24% +5 – – – –
7–11 Feb 2025 Ipsos 2,248 21% 55% –34 16% 45% –29 31% 46% –15 21% 33% –12
7–10 Feb 2025 More in Common 2,005 19% 60% –41 17% 36% –19 29% 40% –11 19% 24% –5
5–7 Feb 2025 Opinium 2,050 22% 56% –34 20% 35% –15 31% 38% –7 22% 21% +1
31 Jan – 3 Feb 2025 More in Common 2,044 18% 56% –38 15% 33% –18 26% 38% –12 15% 24% –9
28–29 Jan 2025 BMG Research 1,514 22% 55% –33 23% 23% 0 32% 35% –3 22% 18% +4
28–29 Jan 2025 Survation 2,010 30% 49% –19 33% 31% +2 35% 42% –7 28% 25% +3
24–27 Jan 2025 More in Common 2,009 16% 58% –42 16% 32% –16 27% 39% –12 15% 24% –9
22–24 Jan 2025 Opinium 2,050 21% 55% –34 19% 34% –15 32% 39% –7 21% 21% 0
17–20 Jan 2025 More in Common 2,016 20% 56% –36 16% 33% –17 27% 39% –12 15% 24% –9
17–20 Jan 2025 Deltapoll 1,500 29% 64% –35 29% 45% –16 – –
10–13 Jan 2025 Ipsos 1,139 25% 52% –27 16% 46% –30 26% 51% –25 25% 27% –2
10–13 Jan 2025 More in Common 2,102 19% 58% –39 14% 32% –18 25% 42% –17 –
8–10 Jan 2025 Opinium 2,050 22% 55% –33 21% 34% –13 30% 39% –9 22% 20% +2
30 Dec – 3 Jan 2025 Deltapoll 1,532 26% 68% –42 25% 46% –21 – –
19–23 Dec 2024 Deltapoll 1,552 28% 64% –36 34% 38% –4 – –
18–20 Dec 2024 Opinium 2,010 22% 54% –32 21% 32% –12 29% 38% –9 23% 20% +3
12–16 Dec 2024 Survation 2,030 35% 44% –9 36% 25% +11 37% 37% 0 29% 23% +6
12–13 Dec 2024 YouGov 2,215 25% 66% –41 18% 49% –31 28% 62% –34 –
6–10 Dec 2024 More in Common 2,432 19% 55% –36 18% 27% –9 27% 38% –11 17% 25% –8
27 Nov – 4 Dec 2024 Ipsos 1,028 27% 61% –34 19% 34% –15 – 30% 27% +3
27–29 Nov 2024 Opinium 2,020 22% 54% –32 22% 28% –6 29% 38% –9 22% 21% +1
26–27 Nov 2024 BMG Research 1,531 25% 53% –28 23% 16% +7 27% 34% –7 23% 18% +5
26–27 Nov 2024 More in Common 1,749 24% 53% –29 20% 26% –6 25% 41% –16 –
14–18 Nov 2024 Deltapoll 1,749 29% 61% –32 24% 38% –14 – –
13–14 Nov 2024 JL Partners 2,024 25% 48% –23 22% 23% –1 31% 41% –10 20% 21% –1 12% 12% - 11% 10% +1
11–13 Nov 2024 Opinium 2,068 25% 50% –25 20% 25% –5 29% 37% –8 23% 19% +3 – –
8–11 Nov 2024 Ipsos 1,139 23% 52% –29 21% 39% –18 28% 48% –20 21% 31% –10 17% 26% –9 16% 26% –10
8–11 Nov 2024 More In Common 2,111 24% 48% –24 17% 19% –2 – 16% 21% –5 – –
8–10 Nov 2024 YouGov 2,099 28% 61% –33 21% 41% –20 30% 61% –31 24% 31% –7 7% 14% –7 4% 12% –8
2 Nov Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Sample
size 		Keir Starmer Rishi Sunak Nigel Farage Ed Davey Carla Denyer Adrian Ramsay
Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net
30–31 Oct 2024 BMG Research 1,511 23% 49% –26 28% 33% –5 28% 35% –7 19% 19% - – –
30–31 Oct 2024 Opinium 2,016 26% 50% –24 23% 45% –22 28% 40% –12 23% 19% +4
18–20 Oct 2024 Savanta 2,135 30% 48% –18 28% 49% –21 31% 46% –14 22% 28% –5 15% 20% –5 13% 20% –7
16–18 Oct 2024 Opinium 2,007 21% 53% –32 20% 45% –25 25% 39% –14 22% 20% +2 – –
9–10 Oct 2024 More In Common 2,073 18% 56% –38 18% 49% –31 – –
5–7 Oct 2024 More In Common 2,023 21% 54% –33 19% 51% –32
4–7 Oct 2024 Deltapoll 2,108 30% 61% –31 27% 65% –38
4–6 Oct 2024 YouGov 2,121 27% 63% –36 24% 66% –42 28% 63% –35 25% 32% –7
2–4 Oct 2024 Opinium 2,055 24% 52% –28 18% 47% –29 26% 42% –16 21% 21% -
2–3 Oct 2024 BMG Research 1,562 25% 50% –25 23% 41% –18 29% 32% –4 21% 20% +1
25–27 Sep 2024 Opinium 2,003 23% 53% –30 20% 46% –26 29% 40% –11 22% 23% –1
24–25 Sep 2024 More In Common 2,080 21% 48% –27 17% 52% –35 – –
20–22 Sep 2024 YouGov 2,137 30% 60% –30 24% 68% –44 28% 63% –35 27% 36% –9
18–20 Sep 2024 Opinium 2,050 24% 50% –26 21% 46% –25 27% 39% –12 24% 21% +3
9 Sep 2024 More In Common 2,024 25% 45% –20 – – –
29 Aug 2024 BMG Research 1,560 28% 44% –16 22% 46% –24 28% 37% –9 19% 21% –2
24–27 Aug 2024 More In Common 2,015 27% 43% –16 17% 58% –41 – –
14–16 Aug 2024 Opinium 2,000 32% 38% –6 20% 50% –30 24% 43% –19 21% 21% -
7–8 Aug 2024 We Think 1,278 33% 42% –9 22% 57% –35 29% 44% –15 18% 36% –18 14% 28% –14 10% 26% –16
5–7 Aug 2024 BMG Research 1,523 30% 33% –3 19% 42% –23 23% 37% –14 21% 16% +5 – –
5–6 Aug 2024 YouGov 2,163 37% 53% –16 23% 71% –48 25% 67% –42 –
31 Jul – 2 Aug 2024 Opinium 2,063 35% 32% +3 18% 48% –30 25% 40% –15 24% 19% +5 19% 17% +2 19% 17% +2
30–31 Jul 2024 YouGov 2,233 40% 49% –9 23% 70% –47 27% 62% –35 27% 33% –6 9% 12% –3 3% 10% –7
25–26 Jul 2024 We Think 2,012 42% 37% +5 25% 61% –36 30% 50% –20 21% 36% –15 16% 34% –18 12% 32% –20
17–19 Jul 2024 Opinium 2,010 38% 20% +18 20% 42% –22 – 25% 18% +7 21% 15% +6 21% 15% +6
11–12 Jul 2024 We Think 2,005 38% 15% +23 21% 31% –10 – – –
5–8 Jul 2024 YouGov[205] 2,102 44% 47% –3 23% 70% –47 27% 65% –38 34% 29% +5 13% 16% –3 7% 14% –7
5–6 Jul 2024 Ipsos[206] 1,141 40% 33% +7 21% 57% –36 26% 52% –26 29% 26% +3 – –

Party approval

[edit]
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Sample
size 		Labour Conservative Reform Lib Dems Green
Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net
25–27 Apr 2025 More in Common[207] 2,009 23% 55% –32 17% 46% –29 – – –
17–21 Apr 2025 More in Common[151] 2,004 21% 56% –35 14% 51% –37 – – –
13–14 Apr 2025 YouGov[208] 2,162 29% 61% –32 24% 67% –43 28% 60% –32 36% 46% –10 41% 41% 0
11–14 Apr 2025 More in Common[152] 2,277 20% 54% –34 17% 49% –32 – – –
4–7 Apr 2025 More in Common[209] 2,058 19% 56% –37 16% 46% –30 – – –
28–31 Mar 2025 More in Common[154] 2,081 19% 60% –41 16% 45% –29 – – –
22–24 Mar 2025 More in Common[155] 2,077 21% 57% –36 16% 49% –33 – – –
16–17 Mar 2025 YouGov[210] 2,081 32% 59% –27 25% 66% –41 28% 59% –31 36% 46% –10 42% 40% +2
14–17 Mar 2025 Ipsos[211] 1,132 29% 46% –17 23% 50% –27 28% 48% –20 24% 35% –11 25% 33% –8
14–17 Mar 2025 More in Common[156] 2,432 26% 53% –27 16% 47% –31 – – –
10–11 Mar 2025 YouGov[212] 2,076 31% 61% –30 25% 67% –42 28% 59% –31 38% 43% –5 39% 41% –2
7–10 Mar 2025 More in Common[157] 2,041 22% 52% –30 15% 49% –34 – – –
4–5 Mar 2025 YouGov[213] 2,147 32% 60% –28 24% 68% –44 28% 61% –33 37% 45% –8 40% 41% –1
28 Feb – 3 Mar 2025 More in Common[158] 2,010 21% 53% –32 – – – –
21–24 Feb 2025 More in Common[58] 2,013 18% 57% –39 – – – –
14–18 Feb 2025 More in Common[62] 4,101 18% 58% –40 14% 50% –36 – – –
16–17 Feb 2025 YouGov[214] 2,436 29% 64% –35 24% 68% –44 32% 56% –24 34% 45% –11 41% 38% +3
7–11 Feb 2025 Ipsos[215] 2,248 24% 52% –28 19% 53% –34 30% 44% –14 23% 35% –12 27% 32% –4
7–10 Feb 2025 More in Common[68] 2,005 21% 57% –36 16% 51% –35 – – –
31 Jan – 3 Feb 2025 More in Common[74] 2,044 20% 53% –33 16% 46% –30 – – –
28–29 Jan 2025 Survation[79] 2,010 34% 47% –13 34% 44% –10 33% 41% –8 29% 31% –2 32% 33% –1
24–27 Jan 2025 More in Common[81] 2,009 17% 53% –36 15% 49% –34 – – –
17–20 Jan 2025 More in Common[88] 2,016 21% 56% –35 16% 49% –33 – – –
10–13 Jan 2025 Ipsos[216] 1,139 29% 50% –21 20% 57% –37 27% 49% –22 26% 30% –4 28% 29% –1
12–16 Dec 2024 Survation[104] 2,030 34% 44% –10 36% 41% –5 34% 38% –4 28% 29% –1 28% 33% –5
12–13 Dec 2024 YouGov[217] 2,215 28% 63% –35 24% 67% –43 27% 59% –32 – –
6–10 Dec 2024 More In Common[164] 2,432 20% 56% –36 18% 46% –28 – – –
8–11 Nov 2024 More In Common[123] 2,011 21% 47% –26 16% 43% –27 – 17% 23% –6 –
8–10 Nov 2024 YouGov[218] 2,099 30% 61% –31 25% 67% –42 26% 59% –33 38% 42% –4 41% 39% +2
2 Nov 2024 Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
9–10 Oct 2024 More In Common[219] 2,072 24% 51% –27 15% 52% –36 – – –
5–7 Oct 2024 More In Common[220] 2,023[c] 24% 51% –27 15% 53% –38 – – –
20–22 Sep 2024 YouGov[221] 2,132 32% 59% –27 24% 67% –43 26% 62% –36 37% 45% –8 40% 42% –2
24–27 Aug 2024 More In Common[222] 2,015 25% 45% –20 15% 57% –42 – – –
5–6 Aug 2024 YouGov[223] 2,163 39% 53% –14 23% 70% –47 – – –
5–8 Jul 2024 YouGov[224][205] 2,102 47% 46% +1 21% 72% –51 28% 62% –34 45% 37% +8 46% 38% +8
5–6 Jul 2024 Ipsos[225][206] 1,141 40% 34% +6 20% 59% –39 25% 51% –26 29% 28% +1 33% 28% +6

Hypothetical scenarios

[edit]

Different Conservative Party leaders: Voting intention and seat projection

[edit]

For the 2024 Conservative Party leadership election, Electoral Calculus conducted a multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) opinion poll on behalf of Jack Lewy of the Robert Jenrick campaign, asking the general public how they would vote if respectively Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick were elected leader of the Conservatives.

Dates

conducted

Pollster Client Area Sample

size

Hypothetical Conservative leader Lab Con LD SNP Ref Grn Plaid Others Majority / lead
11–15 Oct 2024 Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus (MRP)[226] Jack Lewy / Robert Jenrick GB 6,289 Kemi Badenoch Seats 332 151 63 48 25 4 4 5 Lab 14
Vote share 29% 22% 12% 4% 21% 10% 1% 1% 7
Robert Jenrick Seats 311 178 58 48 24 4 4 5 Hung (Labour 15 short)
Vote share 28% 23% 12% 4% 20% 11% 1% 1% 5

Hypothetical preferred Prime Minister polling

[edit]
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Sample
size 		Keir Starmer Kemi Badenoch Robert Jenrick None Don't know Lead
30–31 Oct 2024 YouGov[227] 2,234 27% 20% – 47% 6% 7
29% – 21% 45% 5% 8
18–20 Oct 2024 Savanta[166] 2,135 41% 23% – – 35% 18
41% – 25% – 35% 16

Tactical voting scenarios

[edit]

In February 2025, YouGov conducted polling on scenarios where only two parties appear to have a chance of winning a constituency.[228]

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Area Sample
size 		Lab Con Reform Lib Dems Green Others Don't know Would not vote/refused Lead
Conservative–Reform races
23–24 Feb YouGov GB 2,178 10% 26% 25% 5% 6% 3% 7% 18% Con +1 over Ref
Conservative–Lib Dem races
23–24 Feb YouGov GB 2,178 5% 25% 7% 33% 3% 2% 6% 17% LD +8 over Con
Conservative–Labour races
23–24 Feb YouGov GB 2,178 31% 28% 7% 3% 3% 2% 6% 17% Lab +3 over Con
Labour–Reform races
23–24 Feb YouGov GB 2,178 35% 4% 31% 2% 3% 2% 6% 16% Lab +4 over Ref
Lib Dem–Reform races
23–24 Feb YouGov GB 2,178 5% 4% 29% 36% 3% 2% 6% 15% LD +7 over Ref

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h Pollster is not a member of the British Polling Council.
  2. ^ a b Polling was of GB adults only, but 18 seats were assigned to Northern Irish parties in the reporting of the outcome.
  3. ^ All of the sample was asked about their approval of the Conservative Party. Half of the sample (1,012) was asked about their approval of the Labour Party; half of the sample (1,011) were asked about their approval of the government.

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