Georgia Gubernatorial Election, 2018 (July 24 Republican Primary Runoff)

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Governor of Georgia
Democratic primary Republican primary General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 9, 2018Last day to qualify for Primary/Nonpartisan and Independent/Political Body Candidates for November General Election
Primary: May 22, 2018 Primary runoff: July 24, 2018 (if needed) General: November 6, 2018 General runoff: December 4, 2018 (if needed) Pre-election incumbent(s): Nathan Deal (Republican)
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Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Georgia
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Secretary of State Brian Kemp defeated Lieutenant Gov. Casey Cagle in the July 24 Republican runoff for Georgia's governorship. Kemp and Cagle were the top two finishers in the May 22 primary, where Cagle finished first with 39 percent and Kemp finished second with 25.5 percent. Kemp faced former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D) in the general election to replace term-limited incumbent Nathan Deal (R).

President Donald Trump endorsed Kemp on July 18, and Vice President Mike Pence campaigned for him on July 21. The three Republican candidates who did not advance from the May 22 Republican primary—Hunter Hill, Clay Tippins, and Michael Williams—also endorsed Kemp.

Gov. Deal endorsed Cagle July 16, saying he was the best candidate to continue his legacy as governor.^[2] Cagle argued he was the only candidate who could beat Abrams in the general election.^[3]

The runoff’s tone was set the night of the May 22 primary when Kemp told his supporters, "[Cagle] is not a leader, he’s a puppet."^[4] Cagle said Kemp offered "little other than gimmicks."^[5] After that, the candidates levied a number of attacks at each other focused on policy disputes, personal ethics, and professional competence. Because of the runoff's tone, they held a unity rally on July 26 for Cagle to endorse Kemp.

Cagle aired campaign ads drawing attention to Kemp’s record and calling him incompetent. Cagle said Kemp was responsible for the accidental release of Georgia voter data to media outlets in 2015, did not repay loans he guaranteed for an agricultural company, accepted illegal campaign contributions from businesses he regulated, and was not a vocal supporter of Donald Trump in 2016.

Kemp criticized Cagle after Clay Tippins released a secretly-recorded conversation with Cagle. In the recording, Cagle said he pushed for passage of an education bill he opposed to prevent Hunter Hill from receiving financial support from a pro-school choice group. Kemp also said that Cagle was funded by special interest groups and lobbyists, improperly used a state airplane at taxpayer expense, and would try to legalize casino gambling if elected governor.

Before May 22, Kemp’s ads emphasized his positions on immigration and gun policy. Kemp said he wanted to put Georgia's focus on the needs of rural Georgia rather than metro Atlanta.^[6]

Cagle emphasized his record as lieutenant governor and his plans to cut taxes and create jobs. He also blocked a tax break for Delta Airlines after it revoked a discount program for NRA members and announced he would send the National Guard to the U.S.-Mexico Border at President Trump's request.^[7]

Cagle consistently led in polling before May 22, leaving Kemp and Hunter Hill to battle for the second position in the runoff. Cagle reportedly decided he would rather face Kemp in the runoff, so he directed his campaign attacks against Hill in the final weeks of the campaign. Hill finished in third place with 18.3 percent of the vote.^[4]

Candidates and election results[edit]

Brian Kemp defeated Casey Cagle in the Republican primary runoff for Governor of Georgia on July 24, 2018.

Election updates[edit]

Noteworthy events[edit]

• July 9, 2018: Brian Kemp's campaign released another segment of the Cagle/Tippins recording. Read more below.
• June 7, 2018: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported on a secret recording of a conversation between Casey Cagle and Clay Tippins. Read more below.

Polls[edit]

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

• July 20, 2018: An 11Alive/Survey USA poll showed Kemp leading Cagle 40-34 with 26 percent of voters undecided.
• July 19, 2018: A Fox5/Opinion Savvy poll showed Kemp leading Cagle 55-37 with 8 percent of voters undecided.
• July 13, 2018: A University of Georgia poll commissioned by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and WSB found Brian Kemp leading Casey Cagle 44-41 with a 3.5 percentage point margin of error.

Endorsements[edit]

• July 21, 2018: Vice President Mike Pence (R) campaigned for Brian Kemp in Macon, Georgia.
• July 19, 2018: Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) endorsed Kemp.
• July 18, 2018: President Trump (R) endorsed Kemp.
• July 18, 2018: Clay Tippins, the fourth-place finisher in the May 22 Republican primary, endorsed Kemp.
• July 16, 2018: Gov. Nathan Deal (R) endorsed Casey Cagle.
• July 15, 2018: Hunter Hill, the third-place finisher in the May 22 Republican primary, endorsed Kemp.

Candidate forums[edit]

• July 15, 2018: Cagle and Kemp met in a televised debate hosted by Channel 2 Action News. See a recap here.
• July 12, 2018: Cagle and Kemp met in a televised debate hosted by the Atlanta Press Club. See a recap here.
• July 5, 2018: Cagle and Kemp met in a televised debate in Columbus. See recaps here and here. Watch the full debate here.

Campaign finance[edit]

• July 9, 2018: Both candidates released campaign finance data from the June 30, 2018, filing deadline. Cagle's disclosures showed that he had raised $3.7 million and spent $6.9 million since April 1 and had $1.3 million in cash on hand. Kemp's disclosures showed that he had raised $1.6 million, spent $2.5 million, and had about $700,000 in cash on hand.
• June 27, 2018: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that Casey Cagle's campaign reduced its television ad spending by $250,000 but had put $2 million total into ads.^[8]
• June 20, 2018: Brian Kemp's campaign announced it had spent $1 million on television ads heading into the July 24 runoff.^[9]

Satellite spending[edit]

• July 16, 2018: The Atlanta Journal-Constutution reported that A Better Georgia PAC had reserved $200,000 in air time to run anti-Cagle ads.
• June 29, 2018: Changing Georgia's Future, a pro-Cagle super PAC, disclosed $1.5 million in spending on television ads during the runoff period.

Candidates[edit]

The lieutenant governor of Georgia since 2007, Lowell S. "Casey" Cagle ran for the state's top executive position by emphasizing what he considered to be his accomplishments as lieutenant governor, particularly in technical school and apprenticeship programs, and on pledges to decrease taxes by $100 million and create 500,000 jobs in Georgia.^[10]

Dr. Andra Gillespie of Emory University described Cagle as coming from the same wing of the Georgia Republican Party as outgoing Gov. Nathan Deal, who prioritized economic development and job creation.^[11] Gov. Deal endorsed Cagle after the May 22 primary.

He boosted his profile in February 2018 when he announced he would block a $40 million tax break for Delta Airlines after the company ended a discount program for members of the National Rifle Association in the aftermath of a school shooting that killed 17 people. "Corporations cannot attack conservatives and expect us not to fight back," Cagle said when announcing his position. Delta, one of the largest employers in Georgia, did not reverse its position and the tax breaks were removed.^[12] The NRA endorsed Cagle on April 12.^[13]

Cagle began to run for governor in 2010 but dropped out citing health issues and ran for lieutenant governor again. He was first elected lieutenant governor in 2006 after he defeated Christian Coalition Director Ralph Reed in the Republican primary. Before that he served as a state senator from Gainesville, Georgia, having first been elected in 1994. Prior to his entry into politics, Cagle was a businessman in Gainesville. He attended Georgia Southern University on a football scholarship.

Georgia's secretary of state since 2010, Brian Kemp ran for governor by emphasizing his plans to invest resources in rural Georgia, his background in business, and his support for President Donald Trump's agenda, most notably his immigration policies. “This is Georgia,” he said when announcing his campaign. “We will be putting Georgia first.” He also said he would “treat rural Georgia the same way we treat metro Atlanta.”^[14][15]

After the May 22 primary, Kemp was endorsed by President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence as well as former candidates Hunter Hill, Clay Tippins, and Michael Williams. Before May 22, Kemp was endorsed by Georgia Insurance Commissioner Ralph Hudgens, state Rep. Susan Holmes, and former Libertarian presidential candidate Bobb Barr.

Before being elected as secretary of state in 2010, Kemp served in the Georgia State Senate from 2003 to 2007. He ran for state agriculture commissioner in 2006 and lost the Republican primary to Gary Black. His professional experience includes owning the Athens-based business Kemp Properties. Kemp graduated from the University of Georgia, where he earned a B.S. in agriculture.

Candidate list[edit]

See also: Georgia gubernatorial election, 2018 (May 22 Republican primary)

Note: Hayes and Urbach withdrew from the race, but still appeared on the primary ballot.

 Republican primary candidates

• Casey Cagle ✔
• Hunter Hill
• Brian Kemp ✔
• Clay Tippins
• Michael Williams

Did not make the ballot:

• Eddie Hayes
• Marc Alan Urbach

Political analysis of the outcome[edit]

Political analysts focused on how President Trump's endorsement of Kemp affected the outcome.

• Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote the following on election night: "Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle was on the ropes before Donald Trump endorsed Secretary of State Brian Kemp, but the president delivered the knockout blow. Cagle conceded the race Tuesday night with early returns showing him trailing Kemp by a 2-1 margin, thanking his supporters for the “phenomenal campaign.” It was a swift and devastating defeat for a candidate who once seemed destined to win the party’s nod.

Over the last year, Cagle built what seemed like an unstoppable campaign machine. He had prepared for the run for more than a decade, using his position as president of the state Senate to collect IOUs and build a grass-roots network. And by the time he announced his campaign for governor last summer, he had a November-friendly message that promised new jobs and modest tax cuts. The money soon followed: An astonishing $10.5 million – and he would have had more if not for a fundraising lull during the legislative session It was the type of imposing juggernaut meant to scare others out of the race. Except it didn’t. While a handful of high-profile contenders opted out, most Republicans who were already seriously considering the race wound up jumping in. Kemp, meanwhile, had already entered the contest months earlier...

The primary vote revealed new weaknesses. Despite his huge fundraising advantage, Cagle captured just 39 percent of the vote, and pollsters found a soft spot of enthusiasm for the candidate. He also failed to win a majority of his native Hall County, which was the difference-maker in the 2010 GOP race. Then came the biggest bombshell of the race: The secretly recorded tape. It was made by Clay Tippins, a former GOP rival who used an iPhone in his coat pocket to tape a 90-minute conversation with Cagle, purportedly about offering an endorsement. Tippins said he was so disgusted with Cagle’s candid remarks that he wanted to go public, and the nine-minute segment of the tape he cut with his daughter’s help rocked the race. In the muffled audio, Cagle admits to supporting “bad public policy” to undercut Hill’s bid for office. Cagle’s campaign first hoped the tape would blow over, but another snippet was released with Cagle lamenting that the primary was a race “over who could be the craziest.” For Kemp, it was an epic gift: He had long tried to paint Cagle as a phony conservative; now he could use his own words against him.

Cagle’s strong performance in the final televised debate last week energized his staffers, and the next day he nabbed Gov. Nathan Deal’s endorsement. That was seen as a turning point for his campaign – the governor is one of the most popular Republicans in the state – even though his announcement was rather understated: His support came during a question-and-answer session after an unrelated event. And then came the final jolt to the race: Trump’s tweet giving Kemp his “full and total” endorsement. It popped on a Wednesday afternoon, and there’s still question about who was behind it. But it might as well have been the nail in the campaign’s coffin. “We had the momentum in this race,” said Kemp shortly after his victory, “but those endorsements by the president and the vice president poured gasoline on the fire.” One insider showed a chart of Cagle’s tracking numbers nose-diving after Trump weighed in. His supporters were deflated, his campaign trail appearances more muted. Vice President Mike Pence’s visit Saturday only reinforced the point. By then, Kemp started acting like a front-runner, looking past Cagle toward the November election."

Unreal. Just got these two internal tracking polls from Cagle allies that showed how quickly @CaseyCagle numbers nose-dived when Trump endorsed @BrianKempGA #gapol pic.twitter.com/mEI6SDiyx7

— Greg Bluestein (@bluestein) July 25, 2018

• Erick Erickson, political commentator who endorsed Kemp: "The President's endorsement did not put Kemp into the lead. He was already there thanks to fall out from the Clay Tippins audio. But the President's endorsement ensured he would not fall out of the lead. Cagle lost all momentum and cratered."^[16]

Timeline following May 22 primary[edit]

• July 21, 2018: Vice President Mike Pence (R) campaigned for Brian Kemp in Macon, Georgia.
• July 20, 2018: An 11Alive/Survey USA poll showed Kemp leading Cagle 40-34 with 26 percent of voters undecided.
• July 19, 2018: A Fox5/Opinion Savvy poll showed Kemp leading Cagle 55-37 with 8 percent of voters undecided.
• July 19, 2018: Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) endorsed Kemp.
• July 18, 2018: President Trump endorsed Kemp.
• July 18, 2018: Clay Tippins, the fourth-place finisher in the May 22 Republican primary, endorsed Kemp.
• July 16, 2018: Gov. Nathan Deal (R) endorsed Casey Cagle.
• July 16, 2018: The Atlanta Journal-Constutution reported that A Better Georgia PAC had reserved $200,000 in air time to run anti-Cagle ads.
• July 15, 2018: Hunter Hill, the third-place finisher in the May 22 Republican primary, announced he would endorse Kemp.
• July 15, 2018: Cagle and Kemp met in a televised debate hosted by Channel 2 Action News. See a recap here.
• July 14, 2018: NRA President Oliver North held three rallies for Casey Cagle.^[17]
• July 13, 2018: A University of Georgia poll commissioned by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and WSB found Brian Kemp leading Casey Cagle 44-41 with a 3.5 percentage point margin of error.
• July 12, 2018: Cagle and Kemp met in a televised debate hosted by the Atlanta Press Club. See a recap here.
• July 9, 2018: Both candidates released campaign finance data from the June 30, 2018, filing deadline. Cagle's disclosures showed that he had raised $3.7 million and spent $6.9 million since April 1 and had $1.3 million in cash on hand. Kemp's disclosures showed that he had raised $1.6 million, spent $2.5 million, and had about $700,000 in cash on hand.
• July 9, 2018: Brian Kemp's campaign released another segment of the Cagle/Tippins recording. Read more below.
• July 5, 2018: Cagle and Kemp met in a televised debate in Columbus. See recaps here and here. Watch the full debate here.
• June 29, 2018: Changing Georgia's Future, a pro-Cagle super PAC, disclosed $1.5 million in spending on television ads during the runoff period.
• June 29, 2018: An internal poll from the Kemp campaign showed the race tied with each candidate at 45 percent. The poll's margin of error was 4.0 percentage points.
• June 29, 2018: The Republican firm Cygnal released a poll showing Cagle with 44 percent, Kemp with 43 percent, and nine percent of voters undecided. The poll's margin of error was 3.5 percentage points.
• June 27, 2018: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that Casey Cagle's campaign reduced its television ad spending by $250,000 but had put $2 million total into ads.^[8]
• June 25, 2018: Michael Williams, a gubernatorial candidate who did not advance from the May 22 primary, endorsed Brian Kemp.
• June 20, 2018: Brian Kemp's campaign announced it had spent $1 million on television ads heading into the July 24 runoff.^[9]
• June 12, 2018: Public Service Commissioner Lauren "Bubba" McDonald endorsed Brian Kemp.
• June 8, 2018: Steves Forbes endorsed Casey Cagle.
• June 7, 2018: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported on a secret recording of a conversation between Casey Cagle and Clay Tippins. Read more below.
• June 7, 2018: Rosetta Stone Communications released the results of a survey that showed Casey Cagle with 48 percent of the vote, Brian Kemp with 41 percent, and 11 percent of voters undecided.
• June 4, 2018: U.S. Rep. Jody Hice (R) endorsed Brian Kemp.

Polls[edit]

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

Endorsements[edit]

These endorsements came after the May 22 primary.

Casey Cagle[edit]

• Gov. Nathan Deal^[18]
• State Rep. Allen Peake^[19]
• Lydia Hallmark, former grassroots chairwoman for Hunter Hill's gubernatorial campaign^[20]
• Brandon Phillips, state director of Donald J. Trump for President Inc.^[21]
• Georgia Independent Christian Athletic Association^[22]
• Acworth Mayor Tommy Allegood^[23]
• Smyrna Mayor Max Bacon^[24]
• Marietta Mayor Steve “Thunder” Tumlin^[24]
• Steve Forbes, editor-in-chief of Forbes magazine^[25]

Brian Kemp[edit]

• President Donald Trump^[26]
• Vice President Mike Pence^[27]
• Clay Tippins, 2018 gubernatorial candidate who did not advance from May 22 primary^[28]
• Hunter Hill, 2018 gubernatorial candidate who did not advance from May 22 primary^[29]
• Michael Williams, 2018 gubernatorial candidate who did not advance from May 22 primary^[30]
• Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.)^[31]
• U.S. Rep. Jody Hice (R)^[32]
• Public Service Commissioner Lauren "Bubba" McDonald^[33]
• State Sen. Bruce Thompson^[34]
• State House Speaker Pro Tempore Jan Jones^[35]
• State Rep. John Bonner^[36]
• State Rep. John Carson^[37]
• State Rep. Wes Cantrell^[38]
• State Rep. Sam Teasley^[39]
• State Rep. Ed Setzler^[40]
• Talk radio host Erick Erickson^[41]

Campaign finance[edit]

Campaign finance prior to May 22 primary[edit]

Satellite spending[edit]

• A Better Georgia PAC reserved $200,000 in air time to run anti-Cagle television ads.^[61][62]

• Changing Georgia's Future was a pro-Cagle super PAC. It received $700,000 from Citizens for Georgia’s Future, which was headed by contract lobbyist Jay Morgan and nursing home lobbyist Russel Carlson.^[63] The Atlanta Journal-Constitution report

According to a campaign finance filing on July 13, the group had spent about $1.1 million and had about $130,000 in cash on hand. On June 29, it had disclosed $1.5 million in spending on television ads during the runoff period.^[64]

Campaign strategies and tactics[edit]

Click here to see full coverage of the candidates' strategies prior to the May 22 primary.

Donald Trump endorsement of Brian Kemp[edit]

On July 18, President Donald Trump tweeted the following endorsement of Brian Kemp:

Brian Kemp is running for Governor of the great state of Georgia. The Primary is on Tuesday. Brian is tough on crime, strong on the border and illegal immigration. He loves our Military and our Vets and protects our Second Amendment. I give him my full and total endorsement.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 18, 2018

Prior to the endorsement, both candidates had tied themselves to Trump in their campaign ads.

Click here to see the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's coverage of the Kemp campaign's reaction to Trump's endorsement.

Cagle tweeted the following in response to Trump's endorsement: "No hard feelings, @realDonaldTrump. I look forward to receiving your endorsement against the Democrats in November as I did for you (wish @BrianKempGA could say he did the same)."^[66]

On July 19, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.), a Trump ally, also endorsed Kemp. He said, "I endorse Brian Kemp for Governor of Georgia.Brian is proven conservative leader with plans to track and deport criminal illegals, dismantle gangs, and reform Georgia's education system so students come first.He is ready to put his private sector experience to work for Georgians."^[31]

Vice President Mike Pence campaigned for Kemp in Macon, Georgia, on July 21.^[27]

Former U.S. Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R-Ga.) said he did not think Trump knew who Kemp was and that he endorsed him at the behest of U.S. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue, who served as Georgia's governor from 2003 to 2010. From 2007 to 2010, Perdue was governor when Cagle was lieutenant governor. Perdue did not publicly endorse any candidate in 2018.

Westmoreland said, “Sonny, he was the king of the Georgia Republican Party there for a while. And if he can play in this governor’s race, then he’ll stay that way.”^[67]

U.S. Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.), Sonny's cousin, said in response, “Sonny and I love the people of Georgia, and we respect them. We respect their judgment. The last thing we would do is to try to manipulate that.” He added that Trump “makes up his own mind. He looks at races around. He’s a political junkie.”^[68]

Prior to Kemp's campaign event with Pence on July 21, Trump tweeted, "Brian Kemp, who is running for Governor of Georgia and has my full endorsement, is campaigning tonight with VP @mike_pence. Brian is very strong on Crime and Borders, LOVES our Military, Vets and the 2nd Amendment. He will be a GREAT Governor!"^[69]

In an op-ed released July 23, Cagle wrote the following: “The President decided to [endorse Kemp] because some Washington insiders who have weaseled their way into his ear convinced him to make a power play. Why? So they’ll have a Governor who answers to them instead of to Georgians.”^[70] Read the full op-ed here.

On election day, Trump tweeted, "Today is the day to vote for Brian Kemp. Will be great for Georgia, full Endorsement!"^[71]

Recording of Casey Cagle by Clay Tippins[edit]

On June 7, 2018, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that it had obtained an audio recording from Clay Tippins, a Republican gubernatorial candidate who did not advance to the July 24 runoff, of a meeting he had with Casey Cagle on May 24. The recording (which Tippins secretly made using his iPhone) detailed a conversation about House Bill 217, which increased the tax credits available to donors funding private school scholarships from $58 million to $100 million. Tippins' uncle, state Sen. Lindsey Tippins (R), resigned his chairmanship of the Senate Education Committee after Cagle and most other members of the Republican caucus came out in support of it and helped it become law during the 2018 legislative session.

When asked by Clay Tippins about why he supported the bill, Cagle said, "It ain’t about public policy. It’s about (expletive) politics." He went on to explain that he opposed the bill from a public policy standpoint, but he thought the Walton Family Foundation, a school-choice advocacy organization, would have given $3 million to Hunter Hill, another Republican gubernatorial candidate who did not advance to the July 24 runoff, if the bill had not passed. School choice policies were at the center of Hill's campaign.^[72]

The candidates and former candidates made the following comments about the recorded conversation:

• Casey Cagle: "When a school choice bill failed in 2017, I promised advocates I’d work to get a bill passed in 2018. That’s exactly what I did. I kept my word. The bill wasn’t perfect — and I said that to Clay — but we reached a broad agreement while no side got everything it wanted.”^[72]

• Hunter Hill: "I worked hard in the state Senate to advance conservative reforms like school choice with the intention of benefiting our citizens. It’s sad to see those same policies being sold to benefit a career politician’s political ambitions."^[72]

• Brian Kemp said the conversation revealed, “everything that’s wrong with politics.” He added,“[e]ven worse, it raises serious ethical and legal questions that must be answered immediately."^[73]

• Clay Tippins: “We all complain about these things happening, and no one thinks that anything can be done about it. I just hit a point where I decided I’d do whatever it takes to bring transparency. I hope voters are furious. I was. That’s why I did this.”^[72]

• Spokesman for the Walton Education Coalition: ""Any speculation about Walton investments in the Georgia governor's race is unfounded."^[74]

• Gainesville Times editorial board (Cagle's hometown newspaper): "Cagle is one of our own, but it is hard not to wonder if he hasn’t spent so much time wheeling and dealing under the dome of the state Capitol that he’s sacrificed personal convictions to the altar of political expediency. There are those who will feel that, as his hometown newspaper, we should not admonish the lieutenant governor for his words and deeds. To them we paraphrase in saying, 'this is not about Casey, it’s just about politics.' We expected better. We deserved better."^[75]

On June 12, Lindsey Tippins gave an interview to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution where he said that prior to the HB 217's passage, Cagle told him that the Walton Family Foundation would put $2 million into his campaign instead of Hunter Hill's if it became law. Cagle said he had just been reporting rumors he had heard that the Walton group would become involved. Read full coverage of the interview here.

On June 14, state Sen. Bill Heath and state Rep. Susan Holmes, both supporters of Kemp, asked local and federal prosecutors to investigate “compelling evidence of a direct quid pro quo offered by Cagle to trade legislative action for campaign funding.”

“Where’s the quid pro quo? Casey didn’t get any money from these groups mentioned,” Cagle campaign manager Scott Binkley said in response. “Kemp should apologize to these people for embarrassing them in public.”^[76]

On July 9, Kemp's campaign released a 50-second audio clip from the Cagle/Tippins recording. Cagle said the following in the recording:

Kemp said the recording “exposes Cagle’s real opinion of Republican voters in Georgia.”

Cagle's campaign said, “Casey talked policy. Kemp talked crazy. And yes, Casey Cagle called Brian Kemp out on it. Share the transcript. PLEASE. We have nothing to hide. We want people to see the truth about what Casey said. We don’t need any more evidence that Brian Kemp lies about everything, but he keeps providing more proof, even when it’s provable that he’s not telling the truth.”^[78]

After a debate on July 12, Cagle said he believed that Tippins and Kemp worked together to capture his statements on tape. He said, “Who does this? Who is a person that is that evil in their heart, to come in and mislead someone in a way that leads them down a path, to get them to say certain things, that they can then shape a narrative around?”^[79]

On July 16, allies of Hunter Hill released another part of the tape where Cagle told Tippins that he wanted to decrease poverty in the state and bring economic growth to impoverished areas. At the end of the tape, Cagle said, "My focus is down there. It's not those up there. That's what pisses me off about Republicans and people like Hunter."^[80]

In response, Cagle tweeted, "25% of Georgia’s kids live in poverty. 40 counties have 40% child poverty rates. I will NOT apologize for prioritizing my plans to expand our economy so it lifts everyone, put work over welfare, and create 500K jobs! I grew up in poverty, so yes this is personal to me."^[81]

Where did Hill and Tippins voters go?[edit]

A major question in the primary runoff was where voters who supported Hunter Hill and Clay Tippins in the primary placed their support in the runoff. Hill received 18.3 percent of the vote (110,604 total votes) on May 22 and Tippins received 12.3 percent (74,358 total votes).

Hill endorsed Kemp on July 16, while Tippins endorsed Kemp on July 18.^[82][28]

Kemp released an internal poll in late May that showed 52 percent of Hill voters and 60 percent of Tippins voters supporting him. In response, Cagle's campaign manager said, “We don’t need to poll to know what Georgia voters will decide after realizing the astonishing scope of Brian’s incompetence.”^[83]

In June, Cagle announced endorsements from three mayors in Cobb County, which was where Hill served as a state senator.^[24] On July 12, Lydia Hallmark, the former grassroots chairwoman for Hill's gubernatorial campaign endorsed him.^[20]

State Rep. Sam Teasley, who was a Hill supporter, endorsed Kemp, saying he had a “simple but consistent plan to put people - not politics - first.”^[84]

The maps below show the distribution of the 110,604 voters who supported Hill and the 74,358 voters who supported Tippins across Georgia's counties. Nearly one-fourth of each candidate's voters were concentrated in three metro Atlanta counties: Cobb, Fulton, and Gwinnett. By contrast, 17.5 percent of May 22 Cagle voters and 15.1 percent of May 22 Kemp voters were located in these three counties.^[85]

Cagle vs. Kemp[edit]

The candidates began to attack each other as soon as the May 22 primary was over.

On the May 22 election night, Kemp told his supporters that "[Cagle] is not a leader, he’s a puppet."^[4] The next day, Cagle said he would give voters a "serious conservative agenda" while Kemp had offered "little other than gimmicks." He also blamed Kemp's office for "bungling" a federal court case that created nine weeks between the May 22 primary and the July 24 runoff.^[5]

In response to Cagle's claim that the nine-week runoff was his fault, Kemp said, "It's no surprise that career politician Casey Cagle is attacking the run-off calendar championed by Gov. Deal. He spent $8 million and dropped dramatically in the polls. The more people see of Cagle, the less they like. His quarter century in politics ends in nine weeks."^[86]

Because of the runoff's tone, the candidates held a unity rally on July 26 for the defeated candidate to endorse the winner.^[87]

Here are more of the attacks the candidates levied against each other:

Kemp attacks on Cagle

• In an email to supporters on June 21, Kemp said that Cagle had either broken the law or ethical codes through his campaign fundraising. He specifically noted an Atlanta Journal-Constitution story about Cagle meeting with casino executives from Las Vegas and said that Cagle would attempt to bring casino gambling to the state if elected despite saying he opposed casinos.^[88]

• In an email to supporters on June 27, Kemp said that an article from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution review of Cagle's campaign contributions showed that Cagle was "bought and paid for by the special interests" and was involved with "selling votes and access for campaign contributions".
  • In response to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution article, Cagle said, "“Anybody is welcome to donate to my campaign. We don’t filter. But I have a very long record of standing up for what I believe in and for what is right for the citizens of our state. I hope that people contribute to me for the sole purpose that they buy into our vision and the fact that we have a proven, consistent conservative record. If they’re thinking anything different, then they’re going to be disappointed.”^[89]

• After the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that Cagle had used a state airplane for transport from Gainesville, Georgia, to Atlanta, Georgia, (a distance of 55 miles) almost 60 times since 2010, Kemp's campaign released a statement saying, “Career politician Casey Cagle flies around the state in private planes and helicopters, then sticks hardworking Georgians with the bill. Even worse, he’s used state aircraft multiple times to raise money for his gubernatorial campaign. Cagle needs to be held accountable for his extravagant living and shameful behavior.”
  • In response to the report, Cagle's campaign manager said, “The fact that the state’s air contractor flies out of Atlanta doesn’t mean state officials should only fly out of Atlanta. Usually when he flies out of Gainesville it’s because he’s leaving very early in the morning and returning home late at night.”^[90]

Cagle attacks on Kemp

• Cagle's campaign claimed that Brian Kemp guaranteed a $500,000 loan for the company Kentucky company Hart AgStrong and then failed to repay the loan after the company came into financial trouble. It also said that the company missed $2 million in payments to farmers.
  • Kemp said he was not heavily involved in the management of the company. He added, “[t]he company is working hard to try to resolve their debts and hopefully they’ll be able to pay those back, and also pay myself back with money I’m owed.”^[91]

• In an email to supporters on June 21, Cagle said that Kemp had only reluctantly supported Donald Trump during the 2016 election, while he "worked around the clock to see Donald Trump elected to lead our nation and carry out the bold vision he campaigned on."^[92]

• In an email to supporters on June 26, Cagle said that an article from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution showed that Kemp had accepted illegal donations from businesses he regulated as secretary of state.
  • In response to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution story, Kemp's spokesman said, “Given that Kemp is a man of integrity, he decided to not take contributions from regulated businesses. Our legal and compliance team spend a lot of man hours to screen these checks. We’ve refunded hundreds of thousands of dollars because of Kemp’s character.”^[93]

• After the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that the owner of Massage Envy franchises, which received four complaints of therapists inappropriately touching women, was a donor to Kemp's campaign, Cagle ally and state Sen. Renee Unterman (R) wrote a letter to a U.S. attorney saying there “appear[ed] to be a direct connection between campaign support from Massage Envy franchisees in exchange for non-action and suppression” by Kemp's office.
  • Kemp's campaign manager said he did nothing wrong by accepting the campaign contributions and that “[i]t is our hope that, for her own sake, [Unterman] will retract these baseless, politically motivated statements before facing serious legal action. We also hope that Sen. Unterman will seek immediate medical attention before she hurts herself or someone else.”^[94]
    • In response to the remarks about Unterman, Cagle tweeted, "[t]hat’s it. I’ve had it with @BrianKempGA’s sexist attacks on the strong Republican women supporting my campaign. These comments are offensive, inappropriate and way over the line. Brian Kemp should apologize to all women."^[95]

• On July 6, Cagle's campaign released details of a healthcare plan that it said Kemp had advocated for as a state senator. According to Cagle's campaign, "[w]hen Kemp campaigned for Senate as a liberal Republican, he promised to deliver a vast expansion of government-funded health care, calling for 'Universal Access' to Medicaid up to 185 percent of the federal poverty level 'regardless of whether they were recently on welfare.'"^[96]

Campaign ads following May 22 primary[edit]

Casey Cagle[edit]

Support[edit]

Oppose[edit]

Brian Kemp[edit]

Support[edit]

Oppose[edit]

Democratic ads[edit]

The Georgia Democratic Party began running the following ads opposing Cagle and Kemp during the Republican primary runoff.

How did the candidates differ?[edit]

Medicaid expansion[edit]

• Casey Cagle said he would pursue a waiver from the federal government to obtain more funding for Medicaid as long as work requirements were included.^[97]
• Brian Kemp said he opposed the expansion of Medicaid.^[97]

Campaign themes and policy stances[edit]

Casey Cagle[edit]

Cagle's campaign website stated the following:

Brian Kemp[edit]

Kemp's campaign website stated the following:

2010 and 2014 Republican primary runoffs[edit]

Two similar statewide Republican runoff elections were held in Georgia in 2010 and 2014. In 2010, there was an open primary to replace Gov. Sonny Perdue (R). Nathan Deal and Karen Handel were the top two finishers in the Republican primary and Deal won the runoff. In 2014, there was an open primary to replace U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R). David Perdue and Jack Kingston were the top two finishers in the Republican primary and Perdue won the runoff. Handel was the top vote-getter in the 2010 primary but lost the runoff, while Perdue received the most votes in the 2014 primary and won the runoff.

The chart below shows how turnout changed in each primary between the primary and the runoff. Runoff turnout compared to the 2010 primary decreased by 100,984 votes, a 14.8 percent decline. Runoff turnout compared to the 2014 primary decreased by 121,936 votes, a 20.1 percent decline.

All four candidates added additional votes to their primary totals in the runoffs. As the charts below show, Nathan Deal added more than 135,000 votes and gained an additional 27.3 percent of the vote share to boost his primary performance of 22.9 percent to a 50.2 percent win in the runoff. Jack Kingston added the second highest number of votes (more than 81,000) and percentage of the vote share (23.3 percentage points). It was not enough to win his runoff against Perdue, who added more than 60,000 votes and 20.3 percent of the vote share to take him from 30.6 percent of the vote to 50.9 percent. Handel added more than 56,000 votes and 15.7 percent of the vote share, the lowest of all four candidates.

Comparison with Kemp vs. Cagle[edit]

In terms of vote share and total votes in the primary, Casey Cagle finished higher than any of the candidates in the 2010 and 2014 primaries and runoffs. The closest comparison to his 236,987 votes and 39.0 percent of the vote share was Karen Handel in 2010. She won 231,990 votes and 34.1 percent in the primary but lost the runoff to Nathan Deal.

Brian Kemp finished behind all four candidates with his 155,189 votes and 25.5 percent in the primary. The closest comparison is to Nathan Deal, who won 155,946 votes and 22.9 percent in the primary and defeated Karen Handel in the runoff.

Overall, the 607,441 primary turnout in 2018 was closer to the 2014 turnout of 605,335 than the 680,499 turnout in 2010.

Past elections[edit]

2014[edit]

See also: Georgia gubernatorial election, 2014

Nathan Deal ran for re-election as governor of Georgia in the 2014 elections. Deal defeated David Pennington and John Barge in the 2014 Republican primary by a 55.4 percent margin.^[104]

Governor of Georgia, Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Nathan Deal Incumbent	72.1%	430,170
David Pennington	16.7%	99,548
John Barge	11.2%	66,500
Total Votes		596,218
Election results via Georgia Secretary of State Election Results.

2010[edit]

See also: Georgia gubernatorial election, 2010 and Gubernatorial elections, 2010

In the July 20 primary Deal came in second to Karen Handel, receiving 22.9 percent of the vote to her 34.1 percent. The two met in a runoff election held August 10, with Deal winning 50.2 percent to 49.8 percent.

Deal defeated Democrat Roy E. Barnes and Libertarian John H. Monds in the general election on November 2, 2010.^[105]

• General election^[106]

Governor of Georgia, 2010
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Democratic	Roy E. Barnes	43%	1,107,011
	Republican	Nathan Deal	53%	1,365,832
	Libertarian	John H. Monds	4%	103,194
	NA	Write-in	0%	124
Total Votes				2,576,161

Race background[edit]

Heading into the election, the sitting governor was Nathan Deal (R), who was first elected in 2010 and re-elected in 2014. Deal was prevented by term limits from seeking re-election in 2018.

Heading into the election, Georgia was a Republican trifecta. It has held this status since 2005, when Republicans gained a majority in the Georgia House of Representatives. Georgia was also a Republican triplex.

Georgia was one of 36 states that held an election for governor in 2018. Democrats gained seven previously Republican-held seats, and Republicans gained one previously independent-held seat. Heading into the 2018 elections, there were 16 Democratic governors, 33 Republican governors, and one independent governor. In 2018, 26 of the 33 states with a Republican governor held a gubernatorial election, while nine out of the 16 states with a Democratic governor held a gubernatorial election. Seventeen of the 36 seats up for election were open seats (four Democratic, 12 Republican, and one independent), meaning that the sitting governor was not seeking re-election. Click here for more information on other 2018 gubernatorial elections.

Race ratings[edit]

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Voter information[edit]

How the primary works[edit]

A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Georgia utilizes an open primary system, in which registered voters do not have to be members of a party to vote in that party's primary.^{[107][108][109][110]}

Poll times[edit]

In Georgia, polls are open from 7 a.m. until 7 p.m. Eastern Time. An individual who is in line at the time polls close must be allowed to vote.^[111]

Registration requirements[edit]

To vote in Georgia, one must be a citizen of the United States and a legal resident of his or her county. The voter must be at least 17.5 years of age at the time of registration and 18 at the time of the election.^[112]

Registration must be completed at least 28 days prior to the election. Registration can be completed online or by submitting a paper form.^[112]

Automatic registration[edit]

In Georgia, eligible voters are automatically registered to vote when they conduct transactions at the Department of Driver Services. This automatic registration program began in 2016.^[113][114]

Online registration[edit]

See also: Online voter registration

Georgia has implemented an online voter registration system. Residents can register to vote by visiting this website.

Same-day registration[edit]

Georgia does not allow same-day voter registration.

Residency requirements[edit]

To register to vote in Georgia, you must be a resident of the state. State law does not specify a length of time for which you must have been a resident to be eligible.

Verification of citizenship[edit]

See also: Laws permitting noncitizens to vote in the United States

A Georgia state law, passed in 2009, required voters to provide proof of U.S. citizenship when registering to vote. However, as of March 2019, the law had not been implemented.^{[115][116][117]}

In 2013, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that states cannot require proof of citizenship with federal registration forms. That meant states would need to create a separate registration system for state elections in order to require proof of citizenship.^[117]

Verifying your registration[edit]

The site My Voter Page, run by the Georgia Secretary of State's office, allows residents to check their voter registration status online.

Voter ID requirements[edit]

Georgia requires voters to present photo identification while voting.^[118]

The following list of accepted ID was current as of April 2021. Click here for the Georgia Secretary of State's page on accepted ID to ensure you have the most current information.

Voters can obtain a free voter ID card from any county registrar's office or DDS office. The voter must provide the following in order to receive the card:^[118]

A voter is not required to provide identification when voting absentee by mail.^[118]

Background[edit]

As of April 2021, 35 states enforced (or were scheduled to begin enforcing) voter identification requirements. A total of 21 states required voters to present photo identification at the polls; the remainder accepted other forms of identification. Valid forms of identification differ by state. Commonly accepted forms of ID include driver's licenses, state-issued identification cards, and military identification cards.^[119][120]

Early voting[edit]

Georgia permits early voting. Learn more by visiting this website.

As of April 2021, 38 states and the District of Columbia permitted early voting. Early voting permits citizens to cast ballots in person at a polling place prior to an election. In states that permit early voting, a voter does not have to provide an excuse for being unable to vote on election day. States that do not permit early voting still permit some or all citizens to vote early by mail—often known as absentee voting. Some states allow no-excuse absentee voting, while others require an excuse. States that allow in-person absentee voting without an excuse are counted among early voting states. Click here for early voting laws by state.^[121]

Absentee voting[edit]

All voters are eligible to vote absentee in Georgia. There are no special eligibility requirements for voting absentee. The ballot application deadline is 11 days before Election Day. A completed ballot must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day.^[122][123]

State overview[edit]

Partisan control[edit]

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Georgia heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation[edit]

• Following the 2016 elections, Republicans held both U.S. Senate seats in Georgia.
• Republicans held 10 of 14 U.S. House seats in Georgia.

State executives[edit]

• As of September 2018, Republicans held 12 of 15 state executive positions, while three positions were held by nonpartisan officials.
• The governor of Georgia was Republican Nathan Deal. The state held an election for governor on November 6, 2018.

State legislature[edit]

• Republicans controlled both chambers of the Georgia General Assembly. They had a 114-64 majority in the state House and a 37-19 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status[edit]

• Georgia was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party controlled the state government. Nathan Deal (R) served as governor and Republicans controlled the state legislature.

2018 elections[edit]

See also: Georgia elections, 2018

Georgia held elections for the following positions in 2018:

• 14 U.S. House seats
• Governor
• Nine lower state executive positions
• 56 state Senate seats
• 180 state House seats
• Municipal elections in DeKalb and Fulton Counties

Demographics[edit]

As of July 2017, Georgia's three largest cities were Atlanta (pop. est. 470,000), Columbus (pop. est. 200,000), and Augusta (pop. est. 200,000).^[124][125]

State election history[edit]

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Georgia from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Georgia Secretary of State.

Historical elections[edit]

Presidential elections, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Georgia every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Georgia 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2016	Donald Trump	51.1%	Hillary Clinton	45.9%	5.2%
2012	Mitt Romney	53.3%	Barack Obama	45.5%	7.8%
2008	John McCain	52.2%	Barack Obama	47.0%	5.2%
2004	George Bush	58.0%	John Kerry	41.4%	16.6%
2000	George Bush	55.0%	Al Gore	43.2%	11.8%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Georgia from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Georgia 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2016	Johnny Isakson	54.8%	Jim Barksdale	41.0%	13.8%
2014	David Perdue	52.9%	Michelle Nunn	45.2%	7.7%
2010	Johnny Isakson	58.3%	Mike Thurmond	39.0%	19.3%
2008	Saxby Chambliss	49.8%	Jim Martin	46.8%	3.0%
2004	Johnny Isakson	57.9%	Denise Majette	40.0%	17.9%
2002	Saxby Chambliss	52.8%	Max Cleland	45.9%	6.9%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Georgia.

Election results (Governor), Georgia 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2014	Nathan Deal	52.8%	Jason Carter	44.9%	7.9%
2010	Nathan Deal	53.0%	Roy Barnes	43.0%	10.0%
2006	Sonny Perdue	57.9%	Mark Taylor	38.2%	19.7%
2002	Sonny Perdue	51.4%	Roy Barnes	46.3%	5.1%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Georgia in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Georgia 2000-2016
Year	Republicans	Republicans (%)	Democrats	Democrats (%)	Balance of power
2016	10	71.4%	4	28.6%	R+6
2014	10	71.4%	4	28.6%	R+6
2012	9	64.3%	5	35.7%	R+4
2010	8	61.5%	5	38.5%	R+3
2008	7	53.8%	6	46.2%	R+1
2006	7	53.8%	6	46.2%	R+1
2004	7	53.8%	6	46.2%	R+1
2002	8	61.5%	5	38.5%	R+3
2000	8	72.7%	3	27.3%	R+5

Trifectas, 1992-2017[edit]

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Pivot Counties[edit]

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Five of 159 Georgia counties—3.14 percent—are pivot counties. These are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 pivot counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Georgia with 50.8 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 45.6 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Georgia voted Democratic 63.33 percent of the time and Republican 36.67 percent of the time. Georgia voted Republican in every presidential election from 2000 to 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district[edit]

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Georgia. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.^[126][127]

Recent news[edit]

The link below is to the most recent stories in a Google news search for the terms Georgia governor Republican primary 2018. These results are automatically generated from Google. Ballotpedia does not curate or endorse these articles.

See also[edit]

External links[edit]

Suggest a link

• Governor of Georgia official website

Footnotes[edit]

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