Media Coverage Of State Executive Elections, 2018

2018 State Election Analysis
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Democrats gained a net 42 seats in 2018's state executive official elections. There were 303 state executive seats up for election across 43 states in 2018. In the majority of elections—253—no change in partisan control occurred. Democrats won control of 44 previously-Republican seats. Republicans won control of five seats, two of which had previously been under Democratic control, two of which were previously held by independents, and one of which was previously vacant. Republican North Dakota Secretary of State Al Jaeger was re-elected as an independent.

The media identified various stories and events which impacted or explained the outcome of these 2018 state executive elections. Here are brief summaries of those narratives from both parties’ perspective.

September 2018[edit]

• Douglas Schoen wrote about the success of progressive candidates in Democratic primaries and their implication for the general election for Fox News (September 15, 2018)

"The long 2018 political primary season has finally ended, exposing deep divisions between mainstream Democrats and those on the far left, including some who proudly call themselves democratic socialists. Now many in the party will seek to downplay their divisions and unite for victories in the Nov. 6 midterm elections."

"Heading into the midterms, the mainstream Democrats say they are in the best position to win the support of moderates in their own party, along with critically important independent swing voters and even some Republicans disenchanted with President Trump. This has been the strategy followed by many candidates of both parties in the past – develop a centrist message with broad appeal."

"But those on the far left argue that they are in the best position to win in November because they will fire up the Democratic base and motivate millions of people who normally don’t vote in midterm elections to turn out and cast ballots for Democrats. High voter turnout more often than not works in the favor of Democratic candidates on Election Day."

"Despite their divisions, the Democratic factions have far more in common with each other than they do with Republicans – particularly Republicans who strongly support President Trump."^[1]

August 2018[edit]

• Jennifer Steinhauer wrote about the strong re-election prospects for incumbent Republican governors in blue states in the New York Times (August 10, 2018)

"To keep the base happy, a group of governors has defended the federal health care law, signed new gun control legislation and stood up to President Trump when his words or policies aggrieved them. All are Republican."

"In a year when congressional Republicans are clinging to the president like tomato vines to a trellis, Republican governors running for re-election in the heavily Democratic states of Maryland, Massachusetts, Vermont and, to a lesser degree, Illinois have emerged as well-positioned incumbents who seem likely to survive an expected blue swell in November."

"A crucial mix of bipartisanship, aggressively mild temperaments and gentle checks on liberal proclivities have kept moderates and independents happy in their states."^[2]

July 2018[edit]

• David Catanese wrote about Democratic efforts to gain state attorney general seats in an article for U.S. News (July 20, 2018)

"Attracting far less attention than congressional races that will determine the balance of power in Washington and slotted beneath gubernatorial choices on the ballot, this year's campaigns for attorneys general offer Democrats an opportunity to capture a nationwide lead in controlling the chief law enforcement offices in states."

"And, arguably, they present more favorable turf for Democrats than governorships, where Republicans have built overwhelming dominance over the last decade. While the GOP controls two-thirds of governorships, attorneys general offices are split more evenly. Republicans hold 27; Democrats have 22, with Alaska's having been appointed by independent Gov. Bill Walker."

"Flips in just three states in November would give Democrats national superiority and offer them a handy talking point to demonstrate their progress at rebuilding the party from the bottom up."^[3]

June 2018[edit]

• Karl Salzmann explored the popularity of Republican state executives in New England for the National Review (June 27, 2018)

"At the state level, however, a kind of Rockefeller Republicanism seems to be rising once again in recent years. Local, well-known Republicans (such as Governor Sununu, whose father was also the Granite State’s governor) are a reminder of the fiscally conservative, socially moderate conservatism that is rooted deep in Yankee soil. Governor Baker’s predecessor, Democrat Deval Patrick, ended his two terms in Massachusetts with very low ratings and several scandals, prompting voters to look for a change; the same was true for Governor Scott’s predecessor, Democrat Peter Shumlin. But Baker, Scott, and Sununu are still riding on sky-high polling numbers. And all three are socially liberal, fiscally conservative moderates in blue states, like Boughton and Fung. All three governors have cut taxes and reduced spending, and all three state economies have improved. Are Connecticut and Rhode Island voters looking at their neighbors and desiring the same? It’s entirely possible."

"As always, and especially in light of 2016, we cannot know what will happen on Election Day. But the very fact that Republicans have odds this good in states this blue bespeaks, perhaps, a kind of Republican renewal in a Democratic dominion."^[4]

• John Verhovek examined a split among Democratic candidates in their approach to President Trump using the example of the Democratic primary for governor of Maryland in an article for ABC News (June 25, 2018)

"But the campaigns of Jealous and Baker, though they'd both dispute the narrative, demonstrate a strategic divide in how Democratic campaigns operate in the Trump era, and bring into focus a key question facing a party eager to wrest away control of not just governors' seats across the country but also the U.S. House and Senate."

"Is harnessing the liberal discontent and anger of the so-called "resistance" the best way to build a "blue wave" to sweep Democrats into power, or will a premium on local support and the backing of prominent local figures prove more effective?"

"The question is one Democratic primary voters have been indecisive on this cycle, rewarding progressive challengers like Idaho's Paulette Jordan, but spurning them for more establishment-type figures like Nevada's Steve Sisolak."^[5]

• Louis Jacobson summarized the political landscape and significance of elections for secretary of state across the country in 2018 in an article which also included his ratings of the competitiveness of these races on Governing.com (June 4, 2018)

"Currently, Republicans hold 28 secretary of state offices, and the Democrats hold 17. (Our tally doesn't count Oklahoma's vacancy, Pennsylvania's nonpartisan position, and the three states that lack the position -- Alaska, Hawaii and Utah.) Of the 35 states where voters elect the secretary of state, 26 have contests this fall."

"As the party with the most offices nationally, the Republicans are at greater risk. They will have to defend a total of seven open seats, in Arkansas, Georgia, Kansas, Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio and South Dakota. By contrast, the Democrats, barring something unexpected, won't have to defend a single open seat."

"There are more Republican vacancies this year than usual. That's partly because the position has become a significant stepping stone for ambitious politicians. Brian Kemp of Georgia and Kris Kobach of Kansas are running for governor; Jon Husted of Ohio is running for lieutenant governor; and Shantel Krebs of South Dakota is running for the U.S. House."

"All told, Republicans will have to defend seven competitive seats, compared to just two for the Democrats. Given the possibility of a Democratic wave in the midterm elections, this imbalance in competitive seats suggests the Democrats could gain a few seats."^[6]

May 2018[edit]

• David Weigel discussed how the "progressive" label is influencing and complicating Democratic gubernatorial primaries in an article in The Washington Post (May 24, 2018)

"In Florida, Michigan and New York, the borrowing of the “progressive” brand has been a defining story of the primaries. [Andrew] Gillum, the mayor of Tallahassee, jumped into the Florida governor’s race early and portrayed himself as the bold, liberal alternative to former congresswoman Gwen Graham — a supporter of stronger gun control and a $15 minimum wage. Then came Philip Levine, the wealthy former mayor of Miami Beach, who went on TV early to define himself as the “progressive” with a record of raising the minimum wage and banning assault weapons — or at least passing a resolution saying that assault weapons should be banned."

"Liberals have been even more frustrated in Michigan, where wealthy chemical-testing company founder Shri Thanedar jumped into a race that had pitted El-Sayed, Detroit’s former health commissioner, against Democratic state Senate leader Gretchen Whitmer. While El-Sayed had staffed up with veterans of Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-Vt.) presidential bid and gone after Whitmer for donations she took from the health insurance industry, Thanedar — with no record of Democratic Party activism — immediately introduced himself as “the most progressive Democrat running for governor” and a “fiscally savvy Bernie.”"

"But [Cynthia] Nixon’s race in New York has attracted the most national attention, and it has demonstrated how the candidates opposed by progressive groups can work to outflank them. Since Nixon entered the primary against Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo (D-N.Y.), the two-term governor has announced many leftward shifts on policy. Shortly after Nixon said the state should legalize marijuana, Cuomo endorsed national legislation to decriminalize the drug. (He has supported decriminalization in New York since 2012.) The very day that Nixon joined an environmental march in Albany, Cuomo rolled out a proposal to ban plastic shopping bags."^[7]

April 2018[edit]

• Alan Greenblatt highlighted those states where allegiance to Trump was a dominant factor in Republican gubernatorial primaries, and where it was not, in an article in Governing (April 12, 2018)

"In states like Idaho, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, Republican candidates repeatedly hail the president while sometimes accusing their opponents of being insufficiently supportive of Trump -- or of having been too slow to get on board his bandwagon in 2016."

"Popular Republican governors in blue states like Maryland, Massachusetts and Vermont seem to be getting a pass on pledging loyalty to the president."

"In states where Democrats have a chance of winning the general election, Republican candidates will have to be more careful about expressing support for Trump while trying to appeal to a broader electorate that is more skeptical of him. It's a delicate tightrope to walk."

"Winning over Trump supporters in the primary without putting off independents in the fall may be a difficult task."^[8]

March 2018[edit]

• Albert Hunt talked about the importance of gubernatorial races to the Democratic Party in 2018, in a column in Bloomberg View (March 24, 2018)

"The media is focused on the Democrats' bright prospects for winning control of the House this November. But the gains they expect to make in governors' races may be more important to the party’s long-term future." Success in governor's races, writes Hunt, will help the party in advancing policy issues in key states, redistricting after the 2020 census, and elevating the profiles of Democratic candidates for national office.

"Of 36 gubernatorial seats up for grabs this year, 26 are held by Republicans. The Democrats' top targets are Ohio, Florida and Michigan, where they have been out of power for years."

"Overall, the opportunities for Democratic pickups range from from [sic] Nevada and New Mexico in the west to Iowa in the Midwest to Maine on the East Coast."^[9]

February 2018[edit]

• Ed Kilgore referenced the then-ongoing Republican primary for governor of Illinois to make the argument that the outcome of the general elections would be highly dependent on the outcome of the year's primaries in an article in New York Magazine (February 25, 2018)

"But the landscape is complicated. FiveThirtyEight recently identified 18 Republican governorships that Democrats could feasibly flip if everything works out to their favor. But they also found seven Democratic governorships Republicans might win. While gubernatorial elections are affected by national trends — including the usual midterm reaction against the party controlling the White House and 'wave election' turnout patterns — they have their own peculiar dynamics, particularly in the 20 states where incumbents are currently running for reelection."

"And in this particular election year, there are a lot of primaries that could change the trajectory of the contests in which they are held. That is made most evident by one of the first, in Illinois, which will choose its gubernatorial nominees on March 20."

"Initially this race looked like a war of big wallets between incumbent Republican governor Bruce Rauner and Democratic billionaire (and brother of former Commerce secretary Penny Pritzker) J.B. Pritzker. If they make it to the general election, the contest could eclipse the famous Jerry Brown/Meg Whitman 2010 California gubernatorial race as the most expensive in history. But both are now encountering serious intraparty challenges..."

"The Illinois race definitely shows why early handicapping of gubernatorial races isn’t easy this year. A Biss/Rauner contest might look and feel a lot different than a Pritzker/Rauner contest, and if Ives somehow wins the GOP nomination, all bets are off. Check back on this one on March 21."^[10]

• Dan Balz discussed Democratic strategy in the context of the upcoming redistricting following the 2020 census in an article in The Washington Post (February 24, 2018)

"Democrats talk about the years since 2010 as the Lost Decade, a time when a generation of future leaders was wiped out by a pair of devastating midterm elections and the absence of a strategic plan to recoup from those losses. That’s one reason this year’s gubernatorial elections are the most important in years."

"Most of the current political focus, understandably, is on the upcoming congressional elections, when Democrats could retake control of the House and possibly even the Senate. Democratic control of the House would put a roadblock in the path of President Trump and dramatically alter the terms of debate heading toward the 2020 election."

"But the Democrats need significant gains in the gubernatorial elections this November if they want to begin a broader rebuilding effort to restore the party to the kind of strength it once enjoyed. Without vitality in the states, the Democrats will remain what they became in recent years: a hollowed-out political institution."^[11]

• Susan Haigh discussed Democratic efforts to seek control of secretary of state offices in the 2018 elections in an article for the Associated Press (February 20, 2018)

"With Republicans holding two-thirds of secretary of state offices, Democrats are focusing renewed attention and money on a statewide post once considered a sleepy political stepping stone, acknowledging they’re playing catch-up with the GOP."

"The Democratic Association of Secretaries of State has been motivated by what it considers efforts by some GOP secretaries to limit voter participation and unfairly pare voter rolls — allegations the GOP denies. The organization plans to raise money and provide guidance to a handful of candidates in 2018, likely in populous states that could prove important in the 2020 presidential election."^[12]

• Louis Jacobson discussed the challenges facing Republicans in 2018's attorney general races across the country, in an article in Governing (February 2, 2018)

"Democratic state attorneys general have been at a bit of a disadvantage this past decade: They hold 22 seats to the Republicans' 27, with one AG appointed by Alaska's independent governor. But come November, could their fortunes turn?"

"In fact, of the 30 elected seats that are up this cycle, 18 are held by Republicans and 12 by Democrats." "Furthermore, six of the seven contests that we consider to be tossups are currently in GOP hands. They are the open AG offices in Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Nevada and Ohio, plus the seat held by a Republican incumbent in Wisconsin. The one Democratic-held seat in the tossup category is an open seat in Connecticut."

"In a neutral environment, this would suggest the Democrats could expect to gain a couple of seats on election night. But if there's a Democratic wave -- which is harder to predict than a wave in congressional races -- the Democrats might win even more than that, perhaps enough to turn an overall Republican lead in AG seats into a Democratic one."^[13]

See also[edit]

State executive elections

Lieutenant gubernatorial elections

Attorney General elections

Secretary of State elections

Footnotes[edit]