United States Senate Election In North Dakota (June 12, 2018 Republican Primary)

	2022 → ← 2016
U.S. Senate, North Dakota
	Democratic primary; Republican primary; General election
Election details
	Filing deadline: April 9, 2018
	Primary: June 12, 2018; General: November 6, 2018; Pre-election incumbent:; Heidi Heitkamp (Democrat)
How to vote
	Poll times: Open between 7 a.m. to 9 a.m.; close between 7 p.m. to 9 p.m.; Voting in North Dakota
Race ratings
	Cook Political Report: Lean Republican; Inside Elections: Lean Republican; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
	U.S. Senate battlegrounds; U.S. House battlegrounds; Federal and state primary competitiveness; Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
	U.S. Senate, North Dakota; U.S. Senate • At-large; North Dakota elections, 2018; U.S. Congress elections, 2018; U.S. Senate elections, 2018; U.S. House elections, 2018; Arizona U.S. Senate raceCalifornia U.S. Senate raceConnecticut U.S. Senate raceDelaware U.S. Senate raceFlorida U.S. Senate raceHawaii U.S. Senate raceIndiana U.S. Senate raceMaine U.S. Senate raceMaryland U.S. Senate raceMassachusetts U.S. Senate raceMichigan U.S. Senate raceMinnesota U.S. Senate raceMinnesota U.S. Senate race (special)Mississippi U.S. Senate raceMississippi U.S. Senate race (special)Missouri U.S. Senate raceMontana U.S. Senate raceNebraska U.S. Senate raceNevada U.S. Senate raceNew Jersey U.S. Senate raceNew Mexico U.S. Senate raceNew York U.S. Senate raceNorth Dakota U.S. Senate raceOhio U.S. Senate racePennsylvania U.S. Senate raceRhode Island U.S. Senate raceTennessee U.S. Senate raceTexas U.S. Senate raceUtah U.S. Senate raceVermont U.S. Senate raceVirginia U.S. Senate raceWashington U.S. Senate raceWest Virginia U.S. Senate raceWisconsin U.S. Senate raceWyoming U.S. Senate raceSubmit

Elections in North Dakota, 2018

General election: Nov. 6
Voter registration deadline: N/A (no formal registration process)
Early voting: Sept. 27 - Nov. 5
Absentee voting deadline: Postmark Nov. 5

Online registration: N/A
Same-day registration: N/A
Voter ID: ID required
Poll times: Varies according to the size of the precinct

Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) won the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in North Dakota, defeating Air Force veteran Thomas O'Neill by more than 70 points.

Cramer announced he was running for the seat on February 16, 2018, noting that President Donald Trump (R) had encouraged him to run.^[1] The Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball both changed this race rating from Lean Democrat to Toss-up, in response to the news.

Former North Dakota state party chair Gary Emineth (R) had announced he was running for the seat on January 31, 2018. He decided to launch a bid after Cramer, whose campaign he managed in 2012, had initially declined to run. He withdrew from the race on February 13, 2018, citing Cramer's renewed interest in the seat.^[2]^[3] ^[4]

State Sen. Tom Campbell (R), who had been running ads across the state highlighting his career as a potato farmer and self-identification as a conservative outsider, withdrew from the race and endorsed Cramer on February 16, 2018. He also announced that he would run for Cramer's at-large seat in the U.S. House.^[5]^[6]^[7]

Former U.S. Rep. Rick Berg, who won the Republican nomination in 2012 and lost to Heitkamp by 1 point, was also rumored to be circling the Republican primary. On January 11, 2018, he announced that he would not enter the race.^[8]

North Dakota voter? Here's what you need to know.
Primary election	June 12, 2018
Candidate filing deadline	April 9, 2018
Registration deadline	N/A^[9]^[10]
Absentee application deadline	June 11, 2018^[11]
General election	November 6, 2018
Voting information
Primary type	Open
Polling locations: Go to this page to find early voting locations and your assigned precinct for election day.

For more on related elections, please see:

Candidates and election results[edit]

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

Kevin Cramer defeated Thomas O'Neill in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate North Dakota on June 12, 2018.

Republican primary for U.S. Senate North Dakota

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Kevin Cramer	87.9	61,529
	Submit photo	Thomas O'Neill	12.1	8,509

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.	Total votes: 70,038
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Gary Emineth (R)

Race ratings[edit]

Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in North Dakota, 2018
Race tracker	Race ratings
	October 30, 2018	October 23, 2018	October 16, 2018	October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report	Lean Republican	Lean Republican	Toss-up	Toss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales	Lean Republican	Tilt Republican	Tilt Republican	Tilt Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean Republican	Lean Republican	Lean Republican	Toss-up
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

Campaign finance[edit]

The table below contains data from FEC Quarterly October 2017 reports. It includes only candidates who reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of September 30, 2017.^[12]

Republicans

Endorsements[edit]

Cramer[edit]

President Donald Trump (R)^[13]
North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R)^[14]
Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.)^[15]

Polls[edit]

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

U.S. Senate election in North Dakota, Republican primary
Poll	Tom Campbell (R)	Rick Berg (R)	Other candidate(s)	Undecided	Margin of Error	Sample Size

1892 Polling October 11-12, 2017	32%	34%	9%	35%	+/-4.0	400
1892 Polling May 30-June 1, 2017	7%	39%	9%	45%	+/-4.0	400
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Pivot Counties[edit]

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Four of 53 North Dakota counties—7.5 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County	Trump margin of victory in 2016	Obama margin of victory in 2012	Obama margin of victory in 2008
Benson County, North Dakota	4.33%	17.01%	33.53%
Ransom County, North Dakota	15.77%	13.77%	15.33%
Sargent County, North Dakota	19.73%	9.77%	17.49%
Steele County, North Dakota	17.72%	1.92%	20.35%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won North Dakota with 63 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 27.2 percent. In presidential elections between 1892 and 2016, North Dakota voted Republican 81.25 percent of the time and Democratic 15.6 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, North Dakota voted Republican all five times.^[16]

Presidential results by legislative district[edit]

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in North Dakota. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.^[17]^[18]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won eight out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 13.9 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won four out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 10.7 points.

In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 39 out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 25.1 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 43 out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 38.9 points. Trump won three districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

2016 presidential results by state House district
District	Obama	Romney	2012 Margin	Clinton	Trump	2016 Margin	Party Control
1	25.25%	72.44%	R+47.2	15.70%	77.60%	R+61.9	R
2	23.50%	74.04%	R+50.5	12.81%	81.65%	R+68.8	R
3	34.53%	62.62%	R+28.1	20.28%	69.79%	R+49.5	R
4	44.65%	53.30%	R+8.7	31.23%	62.19%	R+31	R
5	35.04%	62.99%	R+27.9	25.32%	65.85%	R+40.5	R
6	33.60%	64.02%	R+30.4	19.03%	73.86%	R+54.8	R
7	28.93%	68.80%	R+39.9	18.95%	74.05%	R+55.1	R
8	28.39%	69.14%	R+40.7	16.17%	78.39%	R+62.2	R
9	73.98%	24.10%	D+49.9	57.16%	33.14%	D+24	D
10	40.63%	56.80%	R+16.2	23.79%	68.63%	R+44.8	R
11	54.52%	42.92%	D+11.6	47.09%	42.67%	D+4.4	D
12	40.44%	56.89%	R+16.5	28.16%	63.38%	R+35.2	R
13	45.20%	52.76%	R+7.6	36.60%	54.96%	R+18.4	R
14	30.67%	67.01%	R+36.3	19.04%	74.40%	R+55.4	R
15	43.56%	53.45%	R+9.9	28.47%	62.14%	R+33.7	R
16	50.78%	45.95%	D+4.8	40.22%	49.41%	R+9.2	R
17	43.28%	54.92%	R+11.6	36.93%	56.05%	R+19.1	R
18	55.25%	41.99%	D+13.3	39.68%	50.13%	R+10.4	D
19	38.30%	59.10%	R+20.8	23.98%	68.23%	R+44.3	R
20	43.84%	53.94%	R+10.1	28.99%	61.73%	R+32.7	D
21	58.10%	37.73%	D+20.4	49.24%	38.72%	D+10.5	D
22	39.93%	57.89%	R+18	30.35%	60.24%	R+29.9	R
23	48.91%	48.94%	R+0	34.28%	57.80%	R+23.5	R
24	45.51%	52.18%	R+6.7	30.90%	59.19%	R+28.3	R
25	41.58%	56.58%	R+15	27.20%	64.26%	R+37.1	D
26	47.28%	50.58%	R+3.3	30.77%	59.94%	R+29.2	R
27	43.92%	53.66%	R+9.7	38.23%	51.62%	R+13.4	R
28	25.69%	71.88%	R+46.2	14.18%	80.31%	R+66.1	R
29	34.32%	63.27%	R+28.9	20.98%	72.76%	R+51.8	R
30	34.36%	63.38%	R+29	23.14%	69.35%	R+46.2	R
31	37.63%	60.06%	R+22.4	24.35%	68.30%	R+44	R
32	37.65%	59.45%	R+21.8	26.56%	64.60%	R+38	R
33	26.89%	70.44%	R+43.6	13.37%	81.32%	R+68	R
34	36.69%	60.28%	R+23.6	23.55%	67.65%	R+44.1	R
35	37.72%	59.56%	R+21.8	29.88%	60.59%	R+30.7	R
36	21.01%	77.00%	R+56	11.33%	83.81%	R+72.5	R
37	26.51%	71.55%	R+45	16.67%	77.64%	R+61	R
38	30.15%	67.72%	R+37.6	19.59%	72.28%	R+52.7	R
39	19.92%	78.02%	R+58.1	11.09%	83.49%	R+72.4	R
40	35.42%	61.14%	R+25.7	25.35%	63.05%	R+37.7	R
41	42.55%	55.38%	R+12.8	39.53%	51.32%	R+11.8	R
42	49.85%	46.46%	D+3.4	39.58%	49.50%	R+9.9	R
43	49.24%	48.50%	D+0.7	41.62%	50.35%	R+8.7	R
44	52.26%	44.96%	D+7.3	46.38%	42.62%	D+3.8	D
45	44.75%	52.72%	R+8	35.95%	54.29%	R+18.3	R
46	45.62%	52.35%	R+6.7	41.96%	49.55%	R+7.6	R
47	30.74%	67.39%	R+36.7	25.59%	67.63%	R+42	R
Total	38.92%	58.66%	R+19.7	27.74%	64.15%	R+36.4	-
Source: Daily Kos

State overview[edit]

Partisan control[edit]

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in North Dakota heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation[edit]

Following the 2016 elections, Democrats and Republicans each held one U.S. Senate seat in North Dakota.
Republicans held the state's at-large U.S. House seat.

State executives[edit]

As of September 2018, Republicans held nine of 10 state executive positions, with the tenth held by a nonpartisan official.
The governor of North Dakota was Republican Doug Burgum. Burgum won election in 2016.

State legislature[edit]

Republicans controlled both chambers of the North Dakota State Legislature. They had a 80-13 majority in the state House and a 38-9 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status[edit]

North Dakota was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party held the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature.

2018 elections[edit]

See also: North Dakota elections, 2018

North Dakota held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics[edit]

Demographic data for North Dakota
	North Dakota	U.S.
Total population:	756,835	316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):	69,001	3,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:	88.7%	73.6%
Black/African American:	1.6%	12.6%
Asian:	1.2%	5.1%
Native American:	5.3%	0.8%
Pacific Islander:	0%	0.2%
Two or more:	2.2%	3%
Hispanic/Latino:	2.9%	17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:	91.7%	86.7%
College graduation rate:	27.7%	29.8%
Income
Median household income:	$57,181	$53,889
Persons below poverty level:	12.2%	11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in North Dakota. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, North Dakota's three largest cities were Fargo (pop. est. 120,000), Bismarck (pop. est. 73,000), and Grand Forks (pop. est. 57,000).^[19]

State election history[edit]

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in North Dakota from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the North Dakota Secretary of State.

Historical elections[edit]

Presidential elections, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in North Dakota every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), North Dakota 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2016	Donald Trump	63.0%	Hillary Clinton	27.2%	35.8%
2012	Mitt Romney	58.3%	Barack Obama	38.7%	19.6%
2008	John McCain	53.3%	Barack Obama	44.6%	8.7%
2004	George W. Bush	62.9%	John Kerry	35.5%	27.4%
2000	George W. Bush	60.7%	Al Gore	33.1%	27.6%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in North Dakota from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), North Dakota 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2016	John Hoeven	78.5%	Eliot Glassheim	17.0%	61.5%
2012	Heidi Heitkamp	50.2%	Rick Berg	49.3%	0.9%
2010	John Hoeven	76.1%	Tracy Potter	22.2%	53.9%
2006	Kent Conrad	68.8%	Dwight Grotberg	29.5%	39.3%
2004	Byron Dorgan	68.3%	Mike Liffrig	31.7%	36.6%
2000	Kent Conrad	61.4%	Duane Sand	38.6%	22.8%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the results of the gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in North Dakota.

Election results (Governor), North Dakota 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2016	Doug Burgum	76.5%	Marvin Nelson	19.4%	57.1%
2012	Jack Dalrymple	63.1%	Ryan Taylor	34.3%	28.8%
2008	John Hoeven	74.4%	Tim Mathern	23.5%	50.9%
2004	John Hoeven	71.3%	Joe Satrom	27.4%	43.9%
2000	John Hoeven	55.0%	Heidi Heitkamp	45.0%	10.0%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent North Dakota in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, North Dakota 2000-2016
Year	Republicans	Republicans (%)	Democrats	Democrats (%)	Balance of power
2016	1	100.0%	0	0.0%	R+1
2014	1	100.0%	0	0.0%	R+1
2012	1	100.0%	0	0.0%	R+1
2010	1	100.0%	0	0.0%	R+1
2008	0	0.0%	1	100.0%	D+1
2006	0	0.0%	1	100.0%	D+1
2004	0	0.0%	1	100.0%	D+1
2002	0	0.0%	1	100.0%	D+1
2000	0	0.0%	1	100.0%	D+1

Trifectas, 1992-2017[edit]

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

North Dakota Party Control: 1992-2024
No Democratic trifectas • Thirty-one years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25
Governor	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
Senate	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
House	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R

Footnotes[edit]

[show]

North Dakota's current delegation to the United States Congress

Senators

Kevin Cramer (R)

John Hoeven (R)

Representatives

Julie Fedorchak (R)

Republican Party (3)

[1] ABC News, "Rep. Cramer officially launches North Dakota Senate bid," February 16, 2018

[2] Forum News Service, "Ending speculation, former GOP party chair says he'll seek Sen. Heidi Heitkamp's seat," January 31, 2018

[3] The Hill, "GOP's Cramer won't run for Senate," January 11, 2018

[4] The Washington Post, "North Dakota candidate quits Senate race; expects Cramer run," February 13, 2018

[5] Daily Kos, "Senate Fundraising 2017-2018," accessed February 8, 2018

[6] Tom for North Dakota, "New Crop," September 14, 2017

[7] Bismarck Tribune, "Cramer’s Senate run opens up House race," February 16, 2018

[8] West Fargo Pioneer, "Berg won't seek Senate race rematch with Heitkamp," January 11, 2018

[9] North Dakota does not have voter registration.

[10] North Dakota Secretary of State, "North Dakota....The only state without voter registration," accessed February 2, 2018

[11] North Dakota Secretary of State, "North Dakota residents choosing to vote absentee or by mail," accessed February 2, 2018

[12] FEC, "Federal Election Commission," accessed November 5, 2017

[13] Twitter, "Kevin Cramer," March 2, 2018

[14] Twitter, "Doug for Dakota," February 16, 2018

[15] Twitter, "Robert Lauf," February 16, 2018

[16] 270towin.com, "North Dakota," accessed June 29, 2017

[17] Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013

[18] Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017

[19] North Dakota Demographics by Cubit, "North Dakota Cities by Population," accessed September 7, 2018

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