Heart Of The Primaries, Democrats-Issue 18 (May 14, 2018)

Issue No. 18

This week: Previewing the May 15 primaries. Click here to follow developments on the Republican side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!

Upcoming filing deadlines: May 18 (Washington), May 30 (Arizona), May 31 (Vermont)
Passed filing deadlines: 37
Upcoming elections: May 15 (Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon, Pennsylvania), May 22 (Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,224 Democrats, 984 Republicans

Democratic pundits on the news[edit]

Where do Democratic and progressive pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts highlighting differing views.

"But instead of listening to the people, our Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress are following the purveyors of conventional wisdom in Washington D.C., who insist that impeachment is too extreme, premature, or even unhelpful. Their passive response to Trump’s endless stream of transgressions shows that the establishment does not appreciate the risk Trump presents to our system of government, or the absolute need to keep him in check."

- Tom Steyer, Des Moines Register, Feb. 23, 2018

"But [Democrats'] preferred strategy of evading the issue has some obvious shortcomings. Their base wants impeachment, Republicans want to talk about impeachment, the media likes impeachment stories, and Trump’s conduct and unfitness for office are obviously the central issues in American politics and can’t just be swept under the rug.

Democrats need to confront this topic by laying out a specific agenda to confront Trump and check his abuses of power, while also being clear that they are not going to let the congressional docket be dominated by a completely futile drive for impeachment." - Matthew Yglesias, Vox, April 30, 2018

May 15 primaries preview[edit]

Opposing Democratic Party factions competing in PA-07 primary[edit]

Three Democrats representing different ideological wings of the party are running a close race for the Allentown, Pennsylvania, seat once held by Rep. Charlie Dent (R), who resigned in May.

The Northampton County district attorney John Morganelli opposes abortion and sanctuary jurisdictions. He tweeted at president-elect Donald Trump in Nov. 2016 saying he “[hoped] to serve.” Morganelli says he voted for Hillary Clinton and was inquiring about a U.S. attorney job.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) endorsed Pastor Greg Edwards, who supports Medicare for All. Edwards has raised the most money, but said the DCCC tried to force him out of the race. The DCCC denies the allegation.

EMILY’s List endorsed former Allentown Solicitor Susan Wild and has spent over $200,000 backing her candidacy while attacking Morganelli.

Under Pennsylvania’s new congressional map the 7th District more closely resembles Dent’s old 15th District.

Crowded Democratic field in PA-05[edit]

Ten Democrats are seeking the party nomination for the redrawn, and much more Democratic, 5th Congressional District.

The top three contenders are progressive activist Richard Lazer, former federal prosecutor Ashley Lunkenheimer, and attorney Mary Gay Scanlon.

While Lunkenheimer and Scanlon have raised the most money, Lazer labor union support, including a $500,000 satellite spending boost from the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers.

Hillary Clinton carried the old District by 2.3 percentage points. The new District went for Clinton by 28.2 percentage points.

Moderate and progressive Democrats clash in Nebraska’s 2nd District[edit]

Former 2nd District Rep. Brad Ashford thinks he is the best chance of recapturing the seat from the man who defeated him in 2016, Rep. Don Bacon (R).

GovTrack ranked Ashford as the second-most conservative House Democrat when he served from 2015 to 2017. He was a member of the Blue Dog Coalition.

Nonprofit executive Kara Eastman believes she can win the toss-up seat because of her support for universal health care and tuition-free college. The Progressive Change Campaign Committee and a number of Omaha city officials are supporting her candidacy.

Oregon state Senate primaries feature progressive challenges to long-sitting incumbents[edit]

Long-time Oregon state Sens. Peter Courtney and Rod Monroe, who have a combined 62 years of Senate service, face progressive challengers in the May 15 primary.

Joyce Judy is challenging Courtney, who was first elected in 1998. Judy says Courtney has blocked progressive environmental and health care legislation as Senate president and is an opponent of electing the president via a national popular vote.

Monroe, who was first elected in 1976, faces Shemia Fagan and Kayse Jama. Both challengers are focusing on Monroe’s opposition to rent controls and his support for no cause eviction clauses in leases.

U.S. Congress[edit]

U.S. House:

• Democratic seats heading into November: 193
• Republican seats heading into November: 235
• Open seats: 53
  • Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 17
  • Open seats currently held by a Republican: 36
• Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
• Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12

U.S. Senate:

• Democratic seats heading into November: 49*
• Republican seats heading into November: 51
• Open seats: 3
  • Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
  • Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
• Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
• Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10

Bipartisan veterans PAC opposing Gray in KY-06 Democratic primary[edit]

The pro-veteran With Honor Fund super PAC has waded into Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District Democratic primary, with a $14,500 expenditure against Lexington Mayor Jim Gray (D).

Gray’s opponent, Amy McGrath (D), is a retired Marine Corps lieutenant colonel who gained national attention, and built a nationwide fundraising network, with campaign videos highlighting her military experience.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee encouraged Gray to run and he can self-fund, if necessary.

Both candidates say they will work with President Donald Trump (R) and might not vote for House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) as Democratic leader.

With Honor has endorsed 10 Republicans and 12 Democrats in this year’s primaries.

Candidate survey reply of the week[edit]

Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.

What is the first historical event that happened in your lifetime that you remember? How old were you at the time?

“When I was 7 years old, I watched the Anita Hill hearings. Even at that young age, I could not believe the mistreatment and disbelief of a clearly astute and educated woman's testimony. This was done at the hands of my future Senator, Arlen Specter. I remember the shock of Clarence Thomas surviving the hearings and gaining appointment. When I was a senior in high school, Senator Specter came to speak at an assembly. I, and two other students, was pulled into the principal's office ahead of time to be instructed as to a list of topics we were not allowed to ask. First on the list was Anita Hill. Yet again, I could not believe the weakness with which we were led, that our Senator could not withstand questioning from a 17 year old girl about his public treatment of Anita Hill, so much so that he had me intimidated prior to his appearance. I complied, regrettably, but it was etched in by my anger as I sat through the assembly that we must gain better leaders; that we must put women at the table; and that we must put people's testimony over political desires.”

- Molly Sheehan, candidate for Pennsylvania’s 5th Congressional District

Read all of Molly Sheehan's responses →

Governors[edit]

Governors: key information
Open seats	17
Open seats held by a Democrat	4
Open seats held by a Republican	13
States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton	8
States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump	1

Gubernatorial candidate Kamenetz dies of heart attack[edit]

Maryland gubernatorial candidate and Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz (D) died of a heart attack at the age of 60 Thursday.

St. Mary’s College professor Todd Eberly said Kamenetz's death means "there’s a solid quarter now of the electorate that’s going to be looking for another choice."

Kamenetz's running mate, former Center for Working Families Executive Director Valerie Ervin (D) has until May 17 to either disband the campaign, recruit another gubernatorial candidate to head the ticket, or take the top spot herself and recruit a running mate.

Kamenetz was among nine Democratic candidates to file for June 26 primary, which is open only to registered Democrats.

Challenges to El-Sayed's candidacy rejected[edit]

The Michigan State Bureau of Elections rejected all four challenges filed against gubernatorial candidate Abdul El-Sayed's (D) candidacy, including one that originated with his opponent, Shri Thanedar (D).

The challenges alleged El-Sayed did not meet the state's residency requirement. El-Sayed lived in New York between 2013 and 2015 while attending medical school and obtained a New York driver's license during that time. Michigan gubernatorial candidates must have been registered voters in the state for at least the four years immediately preceding the election.

The Elections Bureau recognized that El-Sayed's voter registration had been placed on challenged status while he was out of the state -- meaning he would have to prove residency if he attempted to vote. But because El-Sayed had been a continuously registered voter since 2003, he was eligible for the gubernatorial ballot.

El-Sayed’s lawsuit against the secretary of state's office remains open. In that suit, El-Sayed has requested that the court determine his eligibility. The case stalled in April after the secretary of state's office sought a dismissal on the grounds that El-Sayed's eligibility had not been formally challenged at the time.

A challenge El-Sayed filed over Thanedar's eligibility also remains ongoing. That challenge alleges Thanedar's nominating petitions contain errors, including invalid signatures.

El-Sayed, Thanedar, and state Sen. Gretchen Whitmer (D) are running in the Aug. 7 primary, which is open to all registered voters.

Legislatures[edit]

Democrats control 14 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Democrats lost 968 state legislative seats during the Obama presidency. This chart shows the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Democrats in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.

Takeaways: In Alabama*, Arkansas, California***, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland*, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico**, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina**, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Democratic candidates running has increased 41.9 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 8.8 percent. The number of Democratic incumbents facing challenges has increased 58.3 percent and the number of Democratic primaries has increased 59.6 percent.

*Did not hold state legislative elections in 2016
**Not holding state Senate elections in 2018
***Holds top-two primaries instead of Democratic and Republican primaries

Kentucky Democrats seek to regain House seats they lost in 2016[edit]

Kentucky Democrats are fielding candidates in all but one of the 18 state House districts they lost in 2016, when Republicans took control of the chamber for the first time since 1920.

Democrats are contesting 93 seats this year, compared to 75 in 2016.

One Democratic primary to watch May 15 is House District 62, where Adam Sovkoplas and Jennifer Urie are competing to take on incumbent Phillip Pratt (R).

Pratt, who defeated incumbent Chuck Tackett (D) in 2016, voted for SB 151, an overhaul of the state’s public pension system that led to school closures and teacher protests in April.

Power players[edit]

A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.

International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers[edit]

The Local 98 chapter of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW) is pouring money into several Pennsylvania primaries.

The IBEW spent $500,000 on television ads supporting candidate Richard Lazer in the 5th Congressional District primary. In addition to the IBEW, Lazer has backing from the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO, Communication Workers of America, and the American Federation of Teachers.

The IBEW channeled its spending through the Middle Class PAC, which the IBEW formed in April with an initial $200,000 contribution.

The PAC’s listed mailing address is the home of Tara Chupka, who is also the treasurer. Chupka works for the union’s local chapter.

IBEW also donated $260,000 to Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf’s (D) 2018 re-election campaign and spent $25,000 supporting Lewis Thomas III’s bid for state representative in the 181st District.

In 2014, the IBEW was the single largest source of campaign funding in Pennsylvania. Long time political operative John “Johnny Doc” Dougherty has headed Local 98 since 1993. Dougherty and the Local were the subjects of an FBI probe that looked into Dougherty’s finances and the union’s operations.

What we’re reading[edit]

• “How Democrats Can Over-Promise Like Trump” (The New Republic)
• “Democrats, Don't Mess With People's Trucks” (Real Clear Politics)
• “Why the Democrats Just Lost the Senate” (Politico)
• “Iowa Is a Crucial Test for Any Blue Wave” (Bloomberg)