United States Senate Election In Arizona (August 28, 2018 Republican Primary)

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U.S. Senate, Arizona
Democratic primary Republican primary General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 30, 2018
Primary: August 28, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Jeff Flake (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Arizona
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss-up Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up Inside Elections: Toss-up
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
U.S. Senate, Arizona U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 8th (special) Arizona elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 Arizona U.S. Senate raceCalifornia U.S. Senate raceConnecticut U.S. Senate raceDelaware U.S. Senate raceFlorida U.S. Senate raceHawaii U.S. Senate raceIndiana U.S. Senate raceMaine U.S. Senate raceMaryland U.S. Senate raceMassachusetts U.S. Senate raceMichigan U.S. Senate raceMinnesota U.S. Senate raceMinnesota U.S. Senate race (special)Mississippi U.S. Senate raceMississippi U.S. Senate race (special)Missouri U.S. Senate raceMontana U.S. Senate raceNebraska U.S. Senate raceNevada U.S. Senate raceNew Jersey U.S. Senate raceNew Mexico U.S. Senate raceNew York U.S. Senate raceNorth Dakota U.S. Senate raceOhio U.S. Senate racePennsylvania U.S. Senate raceRhode Island U.S. Senate raceTennessee U.S. Senate raceTexas U.S. Senate raceUtah U.S. Senate raceVermont U.S. Senate raceVirginia U.S. Senate raceWashington U.S. Senate raceWest Virginia U.S. Senate raceWisconsin U.S. Senate raceWyoming U.S. Senate raceSubmit

U.S. Rep. Martha McSally (R) defeated former state Sen. Kelli Ward (R) and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R) in the three-way battle for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Arizona on August 28, 2018. Incumbent Sen. Jeff Flake (R) did not seek re-election for this toss-up seat critical to Republicans retaining control of the U.S. Senate.

In addition to leading in polls released in July and August by double digits, McSally was supported by party leaders and top donors.^[1] During the primary, DefendArizona reserved $5 million in ad time for the general election for McSally. The Senate Leadership Fund was also briefly involved in the primary, spending five figures on an online campaign against Ward in 2017.^[2][3][4]

The two primary ideological battlegrounds in the race were immigration policy and support for the Trump administration's agenda.

Ward criticized McSally’s cosponsorship of an immigration measure that would have allowed a pathway to citizenship for individuals brought into the U.S. illegally as minors.^[5] McSally withdrew her support from that bill and promoted the Securing America's Future Act, a move the Ward campaign said was evidence of McSally changing her positions for political gain.^[6]

Ward aligned with Trump’s immigration policy, penning an editorial in the Washington Examiner supporting the administration's zero-tolerance policy and separations. She noted that she also opposed amnesty.^[7]

McSally was critical of Trump during the 2016 presidential campaign.^[8] As a member of the U.S. House, McSally voted with Trump 98 percent of the time.^[9]

Arpaio emphasized his support for the president in interviews and campaign materials.^[10] Trump pardoned Arpaio in 2017 after he was convicted of criminal contempt for refusing to stop conduct in the sheriff’s office found to be discriminatory. Arpaio wanted to take his strict position on immigration enforcement to Washington, D.C.^[11][12]

Although this seat had been held by a Republican for more than two decades, Democrats identified it as a primary target.^[13] The Hill named it one of the seats most likely to flip in 2018.^[14]

Candidates and election results[edit]

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

Martha McSally defeated Kelli Ward and Joe Arpaio in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Arizona on August 28, 2018.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Nicholas Tutora (R)
• Craig Brittain (R)
• Christian Diegel (R)
• Michelle Griffin (R)

Top candidates[edit]

Joe Arpaio[edit]

Arpaio was county sheriff of Maricopa County, Arizona, serving from 1993 to 2017. He previously served as a police officer in Washington, D.C. and Las Vegas. His professional experience also includes working as a federal narcotics agent and as the head of the Drug Enforcement Administration for Arizona. He also served in the Army.^[15]

"I have a lot to offer. I’m a big supporter of President Trump. I’m going to have to work hard; you don’t take anything for granted. But I would not being doing this if I thought that I could not win. I’m not here to get my name in the paper. I get that everyday, anyway," Arpaio said when announcing his candidacy in January 2018.^[16]

Arpaio emphasized immigration enforcement and complete support of the Trump administration's agenda as policy priorities.^[16]

Martha McSally[edit]

McSally was first elected to the U.S. House in 2014 to represent the Arizona's 2nd Congressional District. She graduated from the U.S. Air Force Academy and served in the Air Force for 26 years before retiring in 2010 as a colonel. She also earned a master's degree in public policy from the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University and a master's degree in strategic studies from the U.S. Air War College.^[17]

In Congress, she has served on the Committees on Armed Services and Homeland Security, including chairing the Border and Maritime Security Subcommittee.^[18] When announcing her candidacy, McSally said, "Like our president, I'm tired of PC politicians and their BS excuses. I'm a fighter pilot and I talk like one—that's why I told Washington Republicans to grow a pair of ovaries and get the job done."^[19]

McSally highlighted the following policy goals in a campaign ad: "Supporting our troops and saving the A-10 [fighter jet], protecting Arizona jobs, and securing the border."^[20]

Kelli Ward[edit]

Ward was a member of the Arizona State Senate, representing District 5 from 2013 to 2015.^[21] She earned her bachelor's degree from Duke University and medical degree from the West Virginia School of Osteopathic Medicine. She practices emergency medicine in Lake Havasu City and Kingman.^[22]

"I have been selected by the people of our state and the people of our country, who are looking for a conservative voice in the United States Senate. And unfortunately for us in Arizona, we don't have a conservative Republican senator. We don't have a senator who supports the President at all. And so 2018, it's time for a change," she said when discussing her candidacy.^[23]

On her campaign website, Ward identified border security, healthcare, simplifying the tax code, and reducing the federal deficit as some of her policy priorities.^[24]

Polls[edit]

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

Race ratings[edit]

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from three outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

• Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
• Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
• Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.^[25]
• Tossup ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.^[26][27][28]

Endorsements[edit]

The table below summarizes the endorsements Ballotpedia identified for Republican candidates in the primary for U.S. Senate in Arizona.

Do you know of an official or organization that endorsed a candidate in this race? Let Ballotpedia know by email at federal@ballotpedia.org.

Campaign themes and policy stances[edit]

Campaign themes[edit]

Craig Brittain[edit]

The following issues were listed on Brittain's campaign website. For a full list of campaign themes and policy priorities, click here.

Nicholas Tutora[edit]

The following issues were listed on Tutora's campaign website. For a full list of campaign themes and policy priorities, click here.

Kelli Ward[edit]

The following issues were listed on Ward's campaign website. For a full list of campaign themes and policy priorities, click here.

Changes in immigration policy[edit]

McSally withdrew her cosponsorship of an immigration measure that would have allowed a pathway to citizenship for individuals brought into the U.S. illegally as minors on May 10, 2018. Her office clarified that McSally supported the Securing America’s Future Act, instead, which she co-sponsored in January 2018. That bill would end the diversity visa program and grant "contingent nonimmigrant status" instead of citizenship to individuals brought into the U.S. illegally as children.^[42]

The Ward campaign accused McSally of having an "identity crisis" and said Ward would continue to promote "pro-border, pro-law" policies.^[42] Ward opposes the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, calling it "Obama's unconstitutional amnesty program."^[43]

The Arpaio campaign also criticized McSally for changing her position.^[42] In January 2018, Arpaio said that he would deport all individuals brought into the U.S. illegally as children. "I would deport these Dreamers and let them see the country they came from, be ambassadors to our country, and later on give them kind of a fast track to come back into the United States legally and that would take care of a lot of issues," he said.^[44]

McSally campaign spokeswoman Kelly Schibi said, "Congresswoman McSally is a lead author and champion of the Securing America's Future Act, a border security bill that fully funds the wall, cracks down on sanctuary cities and criminal illegal gangs, and addresses the DACA population. The Congresswoman's bill is the only bill in the House that President Trump and Secretary Nielsen support."^[42]

March 2018 spending bill[edit]

President Donald Trump (R) signed a $1.3 trillion spending bill into law on March 23, 2018. The bill included $695 billion in defense funding and $591 billion in non-defense funding. McSally supported the bill, while Ward opposed to it.

• Martha McSally: "Our military is climbing out of a readiness crisis while facing threats on many fronts, our borders are vulnerable to cartels and gangs, our infrastructure needs rebuilding, our communities are reeling from an opioid epidemic, our schools are unsafe, and our country needs to invest in these pressing matters to once again be safe, strong, and prosperous. That’s what this spending bill is about—and that’s why it is vital that Congress come together now to support it. This legislation contains big wins for Arizona that I have personally fought to include that will re-wing more A-10s, support local law enforcement in our border communities, take care of our seniors, fund wildland fire suppression, and address maintenance needs at our national parks. No funding bill will be 100% perfect—but this spending bill includes our highest priorities and is backed by the President. I am proud to support it today."^[45]

• Kelli Ward: "If you were looking for a clear distinction between me and my opponent, now you have it. Today, Rep. Martha McSally said that she was 'proud' to have voted in favor of the $1.3 trillion-dollar spending bill that was written behind closed doors and presented to the American people at the eleventh hour. This spending bill lacks necessary funding for a new southern border wall as well as increases deficit spending while continuing to fund Planned Parenthood, Obamacare, and sanctuary cities."^[46]

Firearms regulation and school shootings[edit]

Responding to the March 24, 2018, "March for Our Lives" student demonstrations across the country, Ward said, "Guns don't just jump up and cause problems. People who have access to guns who shouldn't are the ones who are really committing these crimes. If you look at Parkland, it was a series of failures of government." She added that raising the age limit to buy rifles won't make "much of a difference."^[47]

McSally said, "We need a multi-layered system to stop school violence and that is why I've worked with Congress to prevent mentally ill individuals from obtaining firearms." She added, "The classroom should be a safe place to focus on learning—not a combat zone."^[47]

Campaign tactics and strategies[edit]

Campaign ads[edit]

Martha McSally[edit]

Support[edit]

• McSally released an ad in August 2018, "The Real Deal," which presents McSally as aligned with Trump on immigration policy.^[48]

Oppose[edit]

Kelli Ward[edit]

Support[edit]

Oppose[edit]

Alleged request for Arpaio to withdraw from race[edit]

The Arpaio campaign said that Ward campaign manager Shawn Dow met with Arpaio on May 16, 2018, and requested that he withdraw from the race because he was hurting Ward's campaign. In exchange, Dow insinuated he could arrange a paid speaking engagement for Arpaio with the pro-Trump Great America PAC.^[49]

Arpaio said the meeting happened, but expressed disappointment the story had leaked.^[49]

A spokesman for the Ward campaign said that although Dow had a friendship with Arpaio, "[N]o such offer was made and any assertion otherwise is flat-out wrong. False rumors are spread regularly in political campaigns, but we remain laser-focused on winning the primary election."^[49]

Relationship with President Donald Trump[edit]

• Arpaio said he was running because Trump needed help. Describing a deep connection with the president, Arpaio said in an interview with The Washington Post, "I can read his mind without even talking to him. I think he may be reading mine. Is there something that goes through the airwaves? Mental telepathy?"^[50]
  • Trump pardoned Arpaio in 2017 after he was convicted of criminal contempt for refusing to stop conduct in the sheriff’s office found to be discriminatory.^[51]

• McSally said in an interview in June 2018, "Since President Trump has taken office, I am working with him. I am invited over to the White House all the time. I have a reputation of being constructive and speaking truth to power."^[52] She criticized Trump in 2016 following the release of the "Access Hollywood" tapes. "Trump's comments are disgusting. Joking about sexual assault is unacceptable. I'm appalled," she tweeted.^[53]
  • Trump called McSally his friend and "the real deal."^[54]

• In July 2018, Ward captioned a photo of herself with Trump, "Every day I thank God for @realDonaldTrump & the amazing job he is doing to #MakeAmericaGreatAgain both here at home & across the world. As Senator, I will work relentlessly to advance the #AmericaFirst agenda & ensure Arizonans have a voice in Washington they can rely on."
  • Trump tweeted in August 2017, "Great to see that Dr. Kelli Ward is running against Flake Jeff Flake, who is WEAK on borders, crime and a non-factor in Senate."^[55]

Satellite spending[edit]

• In June 2018, DefendArizona reserved $5 million in television ad time during the general election to support McSally if she won the party's nomination.^[56] The group spent more than $3 million on the primary.^[57][58]

• The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee launched two Google search ads against McSally, criticizing her vote to repeal internet privacy regulations established under the Obama administration in 2017, in March 2018.^[59]

• Conservative donor Robert Mercer donated $500,000 to the pro-Ward KelliPAC in July 2018, bringing his total contributions in support of Ward to $800,000. An official from the PAC said the money would be used to launch a campaign presenting McSally as liberal and anti-Trump.^[60]

• One Nation, a group associated with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R), launched ads in support of McSally, highlighting her stances on immigration, in June 2018.^[61]

• Protect Freedom PAC spent $200,000 on a three-ad campaign series that highlighted shifts in McSally's immigration policy and touted Ward's conservative endorsements.^[62]

• Red and Gold, a Democratic group formed in August 2018, spent $815,000 on an ad campaign against McSally.^[63]

Campaign finance[edit]

The chart below contains data from campaign finance reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Race background[edit]

White House in talks with possible Republican primary contenders[edit]

• In June and July 2017, President Donald Trump spoke with state treasurer Jeff DeWit (R) and state party chair Robert Graham (R), both of whom were exploring possible runs against Flake. White House officials also were in contact with former state Sen. Kelli Ward (R), a declared candidate in the race. Politico noted that Flake declined to endorse Trump in the 2016 presidential election: "The White House has met with at least three actual or prospective primary challengers to Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake in recent weeks, a reflection of Donald Trump’s strained relations with the senator and the latest sign of the president’s willingness to play hardball with lawmakers who cross him — even Republican incumbents."^[64]

Two former Ward campaign staffers disavow candidate[edit]

• On October 17, 2017, Dustin Stockton and Jennifer Lawrence, two former Breitbart reporters who joined Ward's campaign as chief strategist and press secretary, respectively, released a statement disavowing Ward. "Her campaign was such a disaster that we saw an opportunity to prove how much we can help struggling campaigns and we did just that. Unfortunately, she showed that she isn’t up to the task of standing up to the pressure that causes so many candidates to betray voters when they get to Washington," Stockton said.^[65]

Flake decides against re-election[edit]

• On October 24, 2017, Flake announced he would not seek re-election in 2018.^[66]

Pivot Counties[edit]

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states. No counties in Arizona are Pivot Counties.

Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) in the 2016 presidential election. Trump won 48.7 percent of the vote, while Clinton won 45.1 percent. Arizona was one of 12 key battleground states in 2016. Of the 30 states won by Trump in 2016, Arizona had the fifth closest margin. From when it became a state in 1912 to 2016, Arizona voted Republican in 66.7 percent of presidential elections. It voted Republican in all presidential elections from 2000 to 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district[edit]

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Arizona. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.^[67][68]

State overview[edit]

Partisan control[edit]

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Arizona heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation[edit]

• Following the 2016 elections, Republicans held both U.S. Senate seats in Arizona.
• Republicans held five of the nine U.S. House seats in Arizona.

State executives[edit]

• As of September 2018, Republicans held 7 of 11 state executive positions. The remaining four positions were officially nonpartisan.
• The governor of Arizona was Republican Doug Ducey. The state held elections for governor and lieutenant governor on November 6, 2018.

State legislature[edit]

• Republicans controlled both chambers of the Arizona State Legislature. They had a 35-25 majority in the state House and a 17-13 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status[edit]

• Arizona was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party controlled the office of the governor, the state House, and the state Senate.

2018 elections[edit]

See also: Arizona elections, 2018

Arizona held elections for the following positions in 2018:

• One U.S. Senate seats
• Nine U.S. House seats
• Governor
• Seven lower state executive positions
• 30 state Senate seats
• 60 state House seats

Demographics[edit]

As of July 2016, Arizona's three largest cities were Phoenix (pop. est. 1,626,078), Tucson (pop. est. 535,677), and Mesa (pop. est. 496,401).^[69][70]

State election history[edit]

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Arizona from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Arizona Secretary of State.

Historical elections[edit]

Presidential elections, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Arizona every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Arizona 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2016	Donald Trump	48.7%	Hillary Clinton	45.1%	3.6%
2012	Mitt Romney	53.7%	Barack Obama	44.6%	9.1%
2008	John McCain	53.6%	Barack Obama	45.1%	7.5%
2004	George W. Bush	54.9%	John Kerry	44.4%	10.5%
2000	George W. Bush	51.0%	Al Gore	44.5%	5.5%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Arizona from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Arizona 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2016	John McCain	53.7%	Ann Kirkpatrick	40.7%	13.0%
2012	Jeff Flake	49.2%	Richard Carmona	46.2%	3.0%
2010	John McCain	58.9%	Rodney Glassman	34.7%	24.2%
2006	Jon Kyl	53.3%	Jim Pederson	43.5%	9.8%
2004	John McCain	76.7%	Stuart Starky	20.6%	56.1%
2002	Jon Kyl	79.3%	William Toel (I)	7.8%	7.8%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Arizona.

Election results (Governor), Arizona 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2014	Doug Ducey	53.4%	Fred DuVal	41.6%	11.8%
2010	Jan Brewer	54.3%	Terry Goddard	42.4%	12.1%
2006	Janet Napolitano	62.6%	Len Munsil	35.4%	27.2%
2002	Janet Napolitano	46.2%	Matt Salmon	45.2%	1.0%'

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Arizona in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Arizona 2000-2016
Year	Republicans	Republicans (%)	Democrats	Democrats (%)	Balance of power
2016	5	55.5%	4	44.4%	R+1
2014	5	55.5%	4	44.4%	R+1
2012	4	44.4%	5	55.5%	D+1
2010	5	62.5%	3	37.5%	R+2
2008	3	37.5%	5	62.5%	D+2
2006	4	50%	4	50%	Even
2004	6	75%	2	25%	R+4
2002	6	75%	2	25%	R+4
2000	5	83.3%	1	16.6%	R+4

Trifectas, 1992-2017[edit]

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

See also[edit]

• United States Senate election in Arizona, 2018
• United States Senate election in Arizona (August 28, 2018 Democratic primary)
• United States Senate elections, 2018
• United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona, 2018

Footnotes[edit]

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