Former President Barack Obama

March 22, 2017
By Sara Reynolds

A C-SPAN survey of 91 presidential historians rated former President Barack Obama as the nation’s 12th-best president and eighth-best in economic management.^[1][2] An editorial in The Oklahoman challenged the rankings, saying that "the sluggish growth of the Obama years is one of the major strikes against his presidency."^[1]

Was growth sluggish during the Obama presidency?

Sluggish is a subjective term. Comparing gross domestic product (GDP), total employed persons, and quarterly wages and salaries during the previous 11 periods of economic expansion, Ballotpedia found that:

• In the expansion that began under President Obama in June 2009 and through 2016, GDP grew by an average of 2.1 percent annually, the lowest rate among expansion periods since 1949.^[3][4][5]
• In the same period, total jobs grew 8.6 percent, from 140 million to 152 million. Greater job growth occurred in five other expansion periods.^[6]
• Quarterly wages and salaries increased 18 percent (when adjusted for inflation), from $7.1 trillion in the second quarter of 2009 to $8.4 trillion in the third quarter of 2016 (the most recent data). Wages and salaries increased by a greater percentage in five other expansion periods since 1949 (the range of growth was 18.3 percent to 59.2 percent).^[7][8][5]

Background

C-SPAN has conducted three Historians Surveys of Presidential Leadership since 2000. Participants are asked to rate each president on 10 leadership qualities using a scale from one (not effective) to 10 (very effective). C-SPAN describes the participants as "historians and other professional observers of the presidency."^[9][10] In the 2017 survey, President Obama was ranked eighth in economic management, behind Presidents Washington, Lincoln, Clinton, Theodore Roosevelt, Franklin Roosevelt, Eisenhower, and Kennedy.^[2]

Economies experience cyclical expansions and contractions (also known as recessions). Obama's presidency ran from January 20, 2009, to January 20, 2017.^[11] He took office amid a recession that lasted from December 2007 to June 2009. The economy has been in a period of expansion since then.^[12]

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, there have been 11 expansion periods since 1949. The current expansion, now in its 93rd month, is the third-longest since 1949. The longest post-war expansion ran 120 months, from 1991 to 2001, followed by 106 months of economic expansion between 1961 and 1969.^[13][14][12]

GDP

According to the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, in the current expansion period (covering the Obama presidency), the growth rate for GDP has averaged 2.1 percent annually when adjusted for inflation. This is the lowest growth rate among the 11 previous expansion periods. Average annual GDP growth was less than 3 percent in only one expansion period since 1949, from Q4 2001 to Q4 2007 (in calendar years).^{[3][4][15][5]}

Total Employment

The number of employed persons grew 8.6 percent, from 140 million to 152 million, during the expansion period that ran through the Obama administration.^[6][16] This employment growth ranked sixth among the previous 11 expansion periods. Total employment grew most during the expansion period of February 1961 (Q1) to December 1969 (Q4), growing the least from July 1980 (Q3) to July 1981 (Q3).^[17][6][18]

Wages

Quarterly wages and salaries increased 18 percent, from $7.1 trillion to $8.4 trillion (in 2017 dollars) during the Obama administration.^[7][19] That rate of growth ranks fifth among the previous 11 expansion periods.^[7][8]

Conclusion

A C-SPAN survey of 91 presidential historians rated Obama as the nation's 12th-best president and eighth-best in economic management.^[2] The Oklahoman responded to the survey results in an editorial: "Yet the sluggish growth of the Obama years is one of the major strikes against his presidency."^[1]

Sluggish is a subjective term. In the expansion period that began under President Obama, GDP growth has averaged 2.1 percent per year, the slowest rate among the 11 expansion periods since 1949.^[3][4] Total employment grew 8.6 percent, from 140 million in June 2009 to 152 million in December 2016, and quarterly wages and salaries increased 18 percent, from $7.1 to $8.4 trillion (in 2017 dollars). Employment and wages grew more during five of the 11 economic expansions since 1949.^[6][7][8]

See also

• Fact check/Did federal debt fall over President Trump's first month in office?
• Fact check/Is Donald Trump right that the debt has doubled under President Barack Obama?
• Barack Obama

Sources and Notes[edit]