From Ballotpedia Elections in Kentucky, 2018
| 2018 Kentucky House elections | |
|---|---|
| General | November 6, 2018 |
| Primary | May 22, 2018 |
| Past election results | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016・2014・2012・2010・2008 2006・2004・2002・2000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 elections | |
|---|---|
| Choose a chamber below: | |
Republicans held their supermajority in the 2018 elections for Kentucky House of Representatives, winning 61 seats to Democrats' 39 seats. All 100 House seats were up for election. At the time of the election, Republicans held 62 seats to Democrats' 37 with one vacant seat.
The Republican Party maintained its trifecta in Kentucky in 2018 by holding its majorities in the state Senate and House. The governor's seat, held by Matt Bevin (R), was not up for election.
The Kentucky House of Representatives was one of 87 state legislative chambers holding elections in 2018. There are 99 chambers throughout the country.
Kentucky state representatives serve two-year terms, with all seats up for election every two years.
The Republican Party maintained supermajority status in both chambers of the Kentucky General Assembly in the 2018 election. In the state Senate, 19 out of 38 seats were up for election. Republicans increased their supermajority in the Kentucky State Senate from 27-11 to 28-10. One Democratic incumbent was defeated in the general election.
The Kentucky House of Representatives held elections for all 100 seats. The Republican majority in the House of Representatives was reduced from 62-37 to 61-39. One seat was vacant before the election. One Democratic incumbent and three Republican incumbents were defeated in the primary. Eight incumbents were defeated in the general election; two Democrats and six Republicans.
On November 6, 2018, 87 of the nation's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly scheduled elections for 6,073 of 7,383 total seats, meaning that nearly 82 percent of all state legislative seats were up for election.
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The candidate list below is based on a candidate filing list provided by the Kentucky Secretary of State on January 31, 2018. The filing deadline for the May primary was on January 30, 2018. (I) denotes an incumbent.[1]
Kentucky House of Representatives General Election 2018 |
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| Office | Other | ||
| District 1 |
Desiree Owen |
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| District 2 |
Charlotte Goddard |
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| District 3 |
Martha Emmons |
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| District 4 |
Abigail Barnes |
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| District 5 |
David Ramey |
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| District 6 |
Linda Story Edwards |
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| District 7 |
Joy Gray |
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| District 8 |
Jeff Taylor |
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| District 9 |
William Coleman |
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| District 10 |
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Josh Calloway |
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| District 11 |
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James Buckmaster |
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| District 12 |
Bruce Kunze |
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| District 13 |
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D.J. Johnson (i) |
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| District 14 |
Elizabeth Belcher |
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| District 15 |
Brent Yonts |
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| District 16 |
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| District 17 |
Malcolm Cherry |
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| District 18 |
Donielle Lovell |
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| District 19 |
William Fishback |
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| District 20 |
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Benjamin Lawson |
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| District 21 |
Jarrett Cox |
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| District 22 |
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Brian Gann |
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| District 23 |
LaToya Drake |
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| District 24 |
Terry Mills |
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| District 25 |
Tom Williamson |
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| District 26 |
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| District 27 |
Jeff Greer (i) |
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| District 28 |
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| District 29 |
Ronel Brown |
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| District 30 |
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Christina O'Connor |
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| District 31 |
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Leigh Boland Jones |
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| District 32 |
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Phil Moffett (i) |
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| District 33 |
Rob Walker |
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| District 34 |
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Robert James Douglas |
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| District 35 |
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Donna Lawlor |
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| District 36 |
Maurice Sweeney |
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| District 37 |
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Katharine Sweeton-Windsor |
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| District 38 |
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Karl Licht |
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| District 39 |
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| District 40 |
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Joshua Neubert |
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| District 41 |
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| District 42 |
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Judy Stallard |
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| District 43 |
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Everett Corley |
John Hicks (Libertarian Party) |
| District 44 |
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Margaret Adkins |
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| District 45 |
Josh Hicks |
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| District 46 |
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James Stansbury |
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| District 47 |
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Mark Gilkison |
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| District 48 |
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Ken Fleming (i) |
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| District 49 |
Linda Belcher (i) |
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| District 50 |
James DeWeese |
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| District 51 |
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| District 52 |
Dean Sumpter |
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| District 53 |
Dustin Burley |
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| District 54 |
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| District 55 |
Cathy Carter |
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| District 56 |
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Daniel Fister |
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| District 57 |
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Calen Studler |
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| District 58 |
Bobby Lacer |
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| District 59 |
Diane Seaman |
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Samantha Gerges (Independent) |
| District 60 |
Jesse Parks |
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| District 61 |
Darrell Link |
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| District 62 |
Jennifer Urie |
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| District 63 |
Josh Blair |
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| District 64 |
Larry Varney |
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| District 65 |
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Jordan Huizenga |
Alyssa Dara McDowell (Independent) |
| District 66 |
Roberto Henriquez |
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Alexis Hannan III (Libertarian Party) |
| District 67 |
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Bob Schrage |
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| District 68 |
Jason Kilmer |
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| District 69 |
Col Owens |
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| District 70 |
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| District 71 |
Mary Renfro |
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| District 72 |
Emily Ferguson |
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Ann Cormican (Libertarian Party) |
| District 73 |
Pat Banks |
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| District 74 |
James Davis |
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| District 75 |
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| District 76 |
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Richard Marrs |
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| District 77 |
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Marianne Weiss |
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| District 78 |
Gregory Coulson |
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| District 79 |
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Joshua Irvin |
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| District 80 |
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| District 81 |
Morgan Eaves |
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| District 82 |
Stefanie Kingsley |
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| District 83 |
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| District 84 |
Tom Pope |
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| District 85 |
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| District 86 |
Debra Ferguson Payne |
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| District 87 |
Dustin Allen |
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| District 88 |
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William Farmer Jr. |
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| District 89 |
Kelly Smith |
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| District 90 |
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| District 91 |
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Toby Herald (i) |
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| District 92 |
Ryan Mosley |
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| District 93 |
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Norma Kirk-McCormick |
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| District 94 |
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| District 95 |
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Larry Brown (i) |
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| District 96 |
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Jill York (i) |
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| District 97 |
Craig Lindon |
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| District 98 |
R. B. McKenzie |
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| District 99 |
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| District 100 |
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Brian Clark |
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| Kentucky House of Representatives primary election candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Democrat |
Republican |
Other |
| 1 | Desiree Owen |
Steven Rudy (I) |
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| 2 | Charlotte Goddard |
Richard Heath (I) |
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| 3 | Martha Emmons |
Randy Bridges: 1,101 Joni Hogancamp: 729 |
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| 4 | Abigail Barnes |
Lynn Bechler: 1,371 (I) Fred Stubblefield: 1,184 |
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| 5 | David Ramey |
Larry Elkins |
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| 6 | Al Cunningham: 2,127 Linda Story Edwards: 2,935 Drew Williams: 1,467 |
Randall Fox: 863 Chris Freeland: 1,490 |
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| 7 | Joy Gray |
Suzanne Miles (I) |
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| 8 | Jeff Taylor |
Walker Thomas (I) |
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| 9 | William Coleman |
Myron Dossett (I) |
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| 10 | Dean Schamore (I) |
Josh Calloway |
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| 11 | Robert Wiederstein |
James Buckmaster |
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| 12 | Bruce Kunze |
Jim Gooch Jr. (I) |
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| 13 | James Glenn Jr. |
D.J. Johnson (I) |
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| 14 | Elizabeth Belcher |
Jordan Lanham: 1,991 Scott Lewis: 2,555 |
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| 15 | Brent Yonts |
Melinda Gibbons Prunty (I) |
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| 16 | No candidate | Jason Petrie (I) |
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| 17 | Malcolm Cherry |
Joey Franzell: 1,061 David Graham: 929 Steve Sheldon: 3,159 Michael Wilson: 1,162 |
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| 18 | Donielle Lovell |
Tim Moore (I) |
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| 19 | William Fishback: 1,228 Daniel Wayne Johnson: 634 Jacob Moore: 518 |
Michael Meredith: 2,821 (I) Brian Kent Strow: 1,508 |
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| 20 | Rick DuBose: 870 Patti Minter: 1,333 Brian Nash: 281 Ashlea Shepherd Porter: 360 Eldon John Renaud: 208 |
Todd Alcott: 766 Troy Brooks: 347 Benjamin Lawson: 923 |
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| 21 | Jarrett Cox |
Bart Rowland (I) |
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| 22 | Wilson Stone (I) |
Brian Gann |
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| 23 | LaToya Drake |
Steve Riley (I) |
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| 24 | Terry Mills |
Brandon Reed (I) |
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| 25 | Tom Williamson: 1,941 Matt Wyatt: 1,452 |
Jim DuPlessis (I) |
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| 26 | No candidate | Russell Webber (I) |
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| 27 | Jeff Greer (I) |
Rachelle Frazier: 1,097 Nancy Tate: 1,355 |
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| 28 | Charles Miller (I) |
No candidate | |
| 29 | Ronel Brown |
Kevin Bratcher (I) |
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| 30 | Thomas Burch: 2,179 (I) Warren Greer: 946 James Penny: 783 |
Christina O'Connor |
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| 31 | Josie Raymond |
Leigh Boland Jones |
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| 32 | Tina Bojanowski |
Phil Moffett: 1,608 (I) Alan Steiden: 578 |
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| 33 | Ashley May Nash: 1,732 Rob Walker: 2,435 |
Jason Michael Nemes (I) |
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| 34 | Mary Lou Marzian (I) |
Robert James Douglas |
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| 35 | Richard Becker: 1,407 Jack Walker: 671 Lisa Willner: 2,788 |
Donna Lawlor |
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| 36 | Jeff Grammer: 1,021 John Thomas Miller Jr.: 630 Maurice Sweeney: 1,218 |
Jerry T. Miller (I) |
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| 37 | Jeffery M. Donohue (I) |
Katharine Sweeton-Windsor |
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| 38 | McKenzie Cantrell (I) |
Karl Licht |
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| 39 | Russ Meyer (I) |
No candidate | |
| 40 | Dennis Horlander: 894 (I) Logan Gatti: 541 Kelly Gibson: 447 Nima Kulkarni: 1,642 |
Joshua Neubert |
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| 41 | Attica Scott (I) |
No candidate | |
| 42 | Reginald Meeks: 4,708 (I) Matt Osborne: 1,085 |
Judy Stallard |
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| 43 | Jackson Andrews: 295 Phil Baker: 929 Charles Booker: 1,481 Dre Dawson: 116 Mark Mitchell: 581 Kathleen Parks: 507 Pamela Stevenson: 1,104 |
Everett Corley: 444 Denise Raine: 435 |
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| 44 | Joni Jenkins (I) |
Margaret Adkins |
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| 45 | Josh Hicks |
Stan Lee (I) |
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| 46 | Alan Gentry (I) |
James Stansbury |
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| 47 | Rick Rand (I) |
Mark Gilkison |
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| 48 | Maria Sorolis |
Ken Fleming (I) |
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| 49 | Linda Belcher (I) |
Thomas Huff |
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| 50 | James DeWeese: 3,992 Kory Miller: 1,442 |
Chad McCoy (I) |
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| 51 | No candidate | John Carney (I) |
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| 52 | Dean Sumpter |
Ken Upchurch (I) |
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| 53 | Dustin Burley |
James A. Tipton (I) |
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| 54 | No candidate | Daniel Elliott (I) |
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| 55 | Cathy Carter |
Kim King (I) |
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| 56 | Joe Graviss |
Daniel Fister |
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| 57 | Derrick Graham (I) |
Calen Studler |
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| 58 | Bobby Lacer |
Rob Rothenburger (I) |
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| 59 | Diane Seaman |
David Osborne (I) |
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| 60 | Jesse Parks: 903 Roger Rankin: 522 |
Sal Santoro (I) |
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| 61 | Susan Back: 1,533 Darrell Link: 1,745 |
Michael Fletcher: 1,484 Savannah Maddox: 2,485 |
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| 62 | Adam Sovkoplas: 1,253 Jennifer Urie: 3,703 |
Phillip Pratt (I) |
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| 63 | Josh Blair |
Diane St. Onge (I) |
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| 64 | Larry Varney |
Kimberly Poore Moser (I) |
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| 65 | Charles Wheatley |
Jordan Huizenga |
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| 66 | Roberto Henriquez |
C. Ed Massey |
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| 67 | Dennis Keene (I) |
Bob Schrage |
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| 68 | Jason Kilmer |
Joseph Fischer (I) |
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| 69 | Ryan Neaves: 622 Col Owens: 938 |
Adam Koenig (I) |
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| 70 | John Sims Jr. (I) |
No candidate | |
| 71 | Mary Renfro |
R. Travis Brenda: 4,239 Jonathan Shell: 4,118 (I) |
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| 72 | Emily Ferguson |
Matthew Koch |
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| 73 | Pat Banks: 2,698 Rory Houlihan: 1,803 |
Les Yates |
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| 74 | James Davis: 5,337 Brian Derickson: 3,166 |
David Hale (I) |
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| 75 | Kelly Flood (I) |
No candidate | |
| 76 | Ruth Palumbo (I) |
Richard Marrs |
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| 77 | George A. Brown Jr. (I) |
Marianne Weiss |
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| 78 | Gregory Coulson |
Mark Hart (I) |
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| 79 | Susan Westrom (I) |
Joshua Irvin |
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| 80 | No candidate | David Meade (I) |
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| 81 | Morgan Eaves |
Deanna Frazier: 1,477 C. Wesley Morgan: 1,124 (I) |
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| 82 | Stefanie Kingsley |
Matthew Anderson: 3,841 Regina Huff: 4,961 (I) |
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| 83 | No candidate | Jeffrey Hoover (I) |
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| 84 | Tom Pope |
Chris Fugate (I) |
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| 85 | No candidate | Thomas Turner (I) |
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| 86 | Debra Ferguson Payne |
Don Rose: 2,422 Jim Stewart III: 6,077 (I) |
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| 87 | Dustin Allen |
Adam Bowling |
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| 88 | Josh Mers: 1,716 Cherlynn Stevenson: 2,862 Gail Swanson: 1,037 |
Ashley Boggs Bruggeman: 1,065 William Farmer Jr.: 1,844 Jennifer McVay Martin: 1,396 |
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| 89 | Kelly Smith |
Robert Goforth: 4,762 Keith Hays: 3,311 |
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| 90 | No candidate | Tim Couch: 5,511 (I) Derek Lewis: 6,574 |
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| 91 | Cluster Howard: 5,700 Bruce Shouse: 1,660 |
Robert Goe: 2,180 Toby Herald: 2,967 (I) |
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| 92 | Ryan Mosley |
John Blanton (I) |
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| 93 | Chris Harris (I) |
Norma Kirk-McCormick |
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| 94 | Angie Hatton (I) |
No candidate | |
| 95 | Ashley Tackett Laferty |
Larry Brown (I) |
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| 96 | Kathy Hinkle |
Charles Clark: 1,216 Jill York: 2,454 (I) |
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| 97 | Issac Allen: 2,873 Craig Lindon: 4,547 |
Russell Halsey: 1,767 Bobby McCool: 1,949 |
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| 98 | R. B. McKenzie |
Danny Bentley (I) |
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| 99 | Rocky Adkins (I) |
No candidate | |
| 100 | Terri Branham Clark: 2,450 Ann Brown Perkins: 2,434 |
Brian Clark |
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| Notes | • An (I) denotes an incumbent. | ||
| • Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email our State Legislature Project. | |||
A margin of victory (MOV) analysis for the 2018 Kentucky House of Representatives races is presented in this section. MOV represents the percentage of total votes that separated the winner and the second-place finisher. For example, if the winner of a race received 47 percent of the vote and the second-place finisher received 45 percent of the vote, the MOV is 2 percent.
The table below presents the following figures for each party:
| Kentucky House of Representatives: 2018 Margin of Victory Analysis | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Elections won | Elections won by less than 10% | Unopposed elections | Average margin of victory[2] |
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| Total | ||||
The margin of victory in each race is presented below. The list is sorted from the closest MOV to the largest (including unopposed races).
| Kentucky House of Representatives: 2018 Margin of Victory by District | ||||
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| District | Winning Party | Losing Party | Margin of Victory | |
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The below map displays each seat in the Kentucky House of Representatives which changed partisan hands as a result of the 2018 elections, shaded according to the partisan affiliation of the winner in 2018. Hover over a shaded district for more information.
| State legislative seats flipped in 2018, Kentucky House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Incumbent | 2018 winner | Direction of flip |
| Kentucky House of Representatives District 11 | R to D | ||
| Kentucky House of Representatives District 13 | R to D | ||
| Kentucky House of Representatives District 27 | D to R | ||
| Kentucky House of Representatives District 3 | D to R | ||
| Kentucky House of Representatives District 32 | R to D | ||
| Kentucky House of Representatives District 48 | R to D | ||
| Kentucky House of Representatives District 49 | D to R | ||
| Kentucky House of Representatives District 6 | D to R | ||
| Kentucky House of Representatives District 72 | D to R | ||
| Kentucky House of Representatives District 87 | D to R | ||
| Kentucky House of Representatives District 88 | R to D | ||
| Kentucky House of Representatives District 91 | R to D | ||
| Kentucky House of Representatives District 95 | R to D | ||
| Kentucky House of Representatives District 96 | R to D | ||
Twenty incumbents did not run for re-election in 2018.[3] Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Gerald Watkins | |
House District 3 |
| Kenny Imes | |
House District 5 |
| Will Coursey | |
House District 6 |
| Robby Mills | |
House District 11 |
| Matt Castlen | |
House District 14 |
| Jim DeCesare | |
House District 17 |
| Jody Richards | |
House District 20 |
| Steven Riggs | |
House District 31 |
| Jim Wayne | |
House District 35 |
| Darryl Owens | |
House District 43 |
| James L. Kay II | |
House District 56 |
| Brian E. Linder | |
House District 61 |
| Arnold Simpson | |
House District 65 |
| Addia Wuchner | |
House District 66 |
| Sannie Overly | |
House District 72 |
| Donna Mayfield | |
House District 73 |
| Rick Nelson | |
House District 87 |
| Robert J. Benvenuti III | |
House District 88 |
| Scott Wells | |
House District 97 |
| Kevin Sinnette | |
House District 100 |
See statutes: Chapter 118 of the Kentucky Revised Statutes
There are three methods by which a candidate can gain ballot access in Kentucky: by political party primary, by political organization convention, and by petition. A candidate must be registered with a political party if he or she wishes to run in the political party primary. If a candidate seeks nomination by a political organization, either by petition or convention, he or she must be registered with that organization. An independent candidate must be registered as an independent in order to use that designation on his or her nominating petition.[4][5]
A political party candidate is granted general election ballot access by winning his or her party's primary election. The candidate must file a notification and declaration form with the Kentucky Secretary of State. This form must be signed by the candidate and by no less than two registered voters from the same party as the candidate and from the same district in which the candidate is running. This form cannot be signed earlier than the first Wednesday after the first Monday in November of the year preceding the election in which the candidate is running. The notification and declaration form must be filed by 4 p.m. on the last Tuesday in January preceding the primary election. A candidate defeated at the primary election is not permitted to run in the general election, with the exception of candidates running in a presidential preference primary.[6][7][8][9]
A political organization candidate is nominated at his or her political organization's convention. Only registered voters of the political organization can attend and vote at the convention. The Kentucky Statutes do not stipulate the time at which a convention must be held; however, it must be held prior to the filing deadline in order to complete all necessary paperwork. A candidate running for state executive office or state legislative office must first file a statement of candidacy form with the Kentucky Secretary of State. This form must be filed by 4 p.m. on April 1 (or the next business day if April 1 falls on a weekend or holiday). No charge is assessed for the filing of this form. The candidate must file nomination papers, including the nomination certificate from the convention, by the second Tuesday in August preceding the general election in which the candidate is running.[10][11][12][13]
Political organization, political group, and independent candidates may all run for office as petition candidates. A candidate running for state executive office or state legislative office must first file a statement of candidacy form with the Kentucky Secretary of State. This form must be filed by 4 p.m. on April 1 (or the next business day if April 1 falls on a weekend or holiday). No charge is assessed for the filing of this form. A petition signed by the candidate and by registered voters in the district from which the candidate seeks nomination must be filed with the Kentucky Secretary of State. Candidates may begin gathering signatures after the first Wednesday after the first Monday in November of the year preceding the general election in which the candidate is running.[5][10][12]
Petitions must be filed by the second Tuesday in August preceding the general election. Signature requirements vary according to the office being sought. Examples are provided in the table below.[4][5][13]
| Signature requirements for petition candidates in Kentucky | ||
|---|---|---|
| Office sought | Number of signatures required | |
| Kentucky state executive office | 5,000 | |
| Member of the United States Congress | 400 | |
| Member of the Kentucky General Assembly | 100 | |
Though write-in candidates' names are not printed on the ballot, they may be written in by a voter. In order for a write-in vote to be counted, the write-in candidate must file a declaration of intent with the Kentucky Secretary of State by the fourth Friday in October preceding the general election. A candidate can be a write-in for only one office and will be considered ineligible for write-in status if he or she has already been placed on the ballot by a different method.[14]
Any registered voter may challenge the "good faith of a candidate” at any time before the election. No specific challenge period is designated in the Kentucky Statutes.[15]
A candidate may only run for one office at a time, as his or her name cannot appear on the ballot more than once.[16]
All candidates are subject to filing fees. These fees are outlined in the table below. The Kentucky Secretary of State accepts personal checks, campaign account checks, cash, or money orders for payment of filing fees.[4][17][18]
| Filing fees for candidates in Kentucky | ||
|---|---|---|
| Office sought | Filing fee | |
| Member of the United States Congress | $500.00 | |
| Governor of Kentucky | $500.00 | |
| Kentucky Attorney General | $500.00 | |
| Kentucky Secretary of State | $500.00 | |
| Kentucky Auditor | $500.00 | |
| Kentucky Treasurer | $500.00 | |
| Kentucky Commissioner of Agriculture | $500.00 | |
| Kentucky Senator | $200.00 | |
| Kentucky Representative | $200.00 | |
| Write-in candidate | $50.00 | |
To be eligible to serve in the Kentucky House of Representatives, a candidate must be:[19]
| State legislators | |
|---|---|
| Salary | Per diem |
| $188.22/calendar day | $166.10/day |
Kentucky legislators assume office the first day of January after their election.
In the 2018 elections, the Republican majority in the Kentucky House of Representatives was reduced from 62-37 to 61-39.
| Kentucky House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 6, 2018 | After November 7, 2018 | |
| Democratic Party | 37 | 39 | |
| Republican Party | 62 | 61 | |
| Vacancy | 1 | 0 | |
| Total | 100 | 100 | |
In the 2016 elections, Republicans won control of the Kentucky House of Representatives for the first time since 1920. Republicans picked up 17 seats in the November general election, giving the GOP a 28-seat majority.
| Kentucky House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 53 | 36 | |
| Republican Party | 46 | 64 | |
| Vacancy | 1 | 0 | |
| Total | 100 | 100 | |
A state government trifecta is a term that describes single-party government, when one political party holds the governor's office and has majorities in both chambers of the legislature in a state government. Republicans in Kentucky gained a state government trifecta as a result of the 2016 elections. Democrats held a trifecta from 1992 to 1999.
Kentucky Party Control: 1992-2021
Eight years of Democratic trifectas • Three years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | D | D |
| Senate | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| House | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R |
The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?
Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.
Applying this definition to state legislative elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose 494 seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.
The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 state legislative waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.
| State legislative wave elections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | President | Party | Election type | State legislative seats change | Elections analyzed[20] | |
| 1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -1,022 | 7,365 | |
| 1922 | Harding | R | First midterm | -907 | 6,907 | |
| 1966 | Johnson | D | First midterm[21] | -782 | 7,561 | |
| 1938 | Roosevelt | D | Second midterm | -769 | 7,179 | |
| 1958 | Eisenhower | R | Second midterm | -702 | 7,627 | |
| 2010 | Obama | D | First midterm | -702 | 7,306 | |
| 1974 | Ford | R | Second midterm[22] | -695 | 7,481 | |
| 1920 | Wilson | D | Presidential | -654 | 6,835 | |
| 1930 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -640 | 7,361 | |
| 1954 | Eisenhower | R | First midterm | -494 | 7,513 | |
Every year, Ballotpedia uses official candidate lists from each state to examine the competitiveness of every state legislative race in the country. Nationally, there has been a steady decline in electoral competitiveness since 2010. Most notable is that the number of districts with general election competition has dropped by more than 10 percent.
Below is Ballotpedia's 2016 competitiveness analysis. Click here to read the full study »

Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
One of 120 Kentucky counties—0.83 percent—is a pivot county. Pivot counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 pivot counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Elliott County, Kentucky | 44.13% | 2.50% | 25.17% | ||||
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Kentucky with 62.5 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 32.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1792 and 2016, Kentucky voted Democratic 45.6 percent of the time and Republican 26.3 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Kentucky voted Republican all five times.[23]
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Kentucky. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[24][25]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 18 out of 100 state House districts in Kentucky with an average margin of victory of 24.5 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 18 out of 100 state House districts in Kentucky with an average margin of victory of 25 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 82 out of 100 state House districts in Kentucky with an average margin of victory of 32.8 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 82 out of 100 state House districts in Kentucky with an average margin of victory of 42 points. Trump won 20 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
| 2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 28.28% | 70.29% | R+42 | 21.07% | 75.71% | R+54.6 | R |
| 2 | 28.39% | 70.02% | R+41.6 | 19.66% | 76.54% | R+56.9 | R |
| 3 | 40.47% | 57.82% | R+17.3 | 36.33% | 58.93% | R+22.6 | D |
| 4 | 28.50% | 70.01% | R+41.5 | 19.59% | 76.79% | R+57.2 | R |
| 5 | 34.38% | 63.66% | R+29.3 | 28.15% | 66.52% | R+38.4 | R |
| 6 | 32.05% | 66.22% | R+34.2 | 22.63% | 73.37% | R+50.7 | D |
| 7 | 34.35% | 64.05% | R+29.7 | 25.60% | 69.99% | R+44.4 | R |
| 8 | 45.14% | 53.78% | R+8.6 | 40.22% | 56.32% | R+16.1 | R |
| 9 | 29.19% | 69.46% | R+40.3 | 22.92% | 73.34% | R+50.4 | R |
| 10 | 40.43% | 57.99% | R+17.6 | 29.06% | 66.06% | R+37 | D |
| 11 | 43.65% | 55.17% | R+11.5 | 34.91% | 60.53% | R+25.6 | R |
| 12 | 31.04% | 67.42% | R+36.4 | 20.94% | 75.28% | R+54.3 | R |
| 13 | 46.17% | 51.87% | R+5.7 | 39.24% | 54.05% | R+14.8 | R |
| 14 | 31.99% | 66.02% | R+34 | 22.42% | 73.01% | R+50.6 | R |
| 15 | 35.13% | 63.22% | R+28.1 | 23.89% | 72.90% | R+49 | R |
| 16 | 31.83% | 66.81% | R+35 | 24.20% | 72.59% | R+48.4 | R |
| 17 | 29.65% | 69.19% | R+39.5 | 26.55% | 68.13% | R+41.6 | R |
| 18 | 30.68% | 67.92% | R+37.2 | 21.96% | 74.00% | R+52 | R |
| 19 | 36.66% | 61.97% | R+25.3 | 28.23% | 67.66% | R+39.4 | R |
| 20 | 47.55% | 50.21% | R+2.7 | 47.28% | 45.81% | D+1.5 | D |
| 21 | 29.72% | 68.87% | R+39.2 | 19.57% | 77.59% | R+58 | R |
| 22 | 30.68% | 68.01% | R+37.3 | 22.20% | 73.97% | R+51.8 | D |
| 23 | 32.54% | 65.99% | R+33.5 | 23.11% | 72.94% | R+49.8 | R |
| 24 | 35.21% | 63.25% | R+28 | 24.18% | 72.15% | R+48 | R |
| 25 | 36.11% | 62.25% | R+26.1 | 29.69% | 64.91% | R+35.2 | R |
| 26 | 32.43% | 66.01% | R+33.6 | 25.01% | 70.56% | R+45.6 | R |
| 27 | 42.17% | 56.05% | R+13.9 | 30.64% | 64.67% | R+34 | D |
| 28 | 44.94% | 53.71% | R+8.8 | 37.86% | 57.69% | R+19.8 | D |
| 29 | 39.17% | 59.62% | R+20.5 | 38.23% | 56.76% | R+18.5 | R |
| 30 | 71.73% | 26.98% | D+44.8 | 69.58% | 25.88% | D+43.7 | D |
| 31 | 50.04% | 48.33% | D+1.7 | 50.75% | 43.48% | D+7.3 | D |
| 32 | 43.38% | 55.29% | R+11.9 | 47.38% | 46.66% | D+0.7 | R |
| 33 | 41.13% | 57.48% | R+16.3 | 43.59% | 50.25% | R+6.7 | R |
| 34 | 59.79% | 37.94% | D+21.9 | 65.14% | 28.16% | D+37 | D |
| 35 | 56.21% | 41.52% | D+14.7 | 53.85% | 39.87% | D+14 | D |
| 36 | 32.23% | 66.72% | R+34.5 | 35.92% | 58.96% | R+23 | R |
| 37 | 49.68% | 48.67% | D+1 | 44.50% | 49.97% | R+5.5 | D |
| 38 | 54.21% | 44.14% | D+10.1 | 48.62% | 46.39% | D+2.2 | D |
| 39 | 33.35% | 64.62% | R+31.3 | 30.32% | 63.52% | R+33.2 | D |
| 40 | 67.80% | 30.82% | D+37 | 64.07% | 31.32% | D+32.8 | D |
| 41 | 76.55% | 21.94% | D+54.6 | 75.28% | 19.22% | D+56.1 | D |
| 42 | 85.66% | 12.50% | D+73.2 | 84.31% | 10.77% | D+73.5 | D |
| 43 | 76.26% | 23.02% | D+53.2 | 74.36% | 21.81% | D+52.6 | D |
| 44 | 60.58% | 38.30% | D+22.3 | 55.32% | 41.13% | D+14.2 | D |
| 45 | 37.40% | 60.69% | R+23.3 | 41.04% | 51.95% | R+10.9 | R |
| 46 | 54.38% | 44.35% | D+10 | 50.32% | 44.79% | D+5.5 | D |
| 47 | 40.04% | 58.29% | R+18.3 | 25.17% | 70.32% | R+45.2 | D |
| 48 | 41.16% | 57.55% | R+16.4 | 46.46% | 48.29% | R+1.8 | R |
| 49 | 32.77% | 65.53% | R+32.8 | 23.27% | 72.25% | R+49 | D |
| 50 | 41.07% | 57.59% | R+16.5 | 30.97% | 64.66% | R+33.7 | R |
| 51 | 26.66% | 72.21% | R+45.5 | 19.84% | 76.57% | R+56.7 | R |
| 52 | 22.27% | 76.72% | R+54.4 | 15.23% | 82.44% | R+67.2 | R |
| 53 | 30.93% | 67.34% | R+36.4 | 21.74% | 73.75% | R+52 | R |
| 54 | 30.10% | 68.30% | R+38.2 | 26.05% | 69.78% | R+43.7 | R |
| 55 | 28.09% | 70.49% | R+42.4 | 23.18% | 70.94% | R+47.8 | R |
| 56 | 42.41% | 55.60% | R+13.2 | 40.91% | 52.53% | R+11.6 | D |
| 57 | 50.60% | 47.40% | D+3.2 | 45.10% | 49.31% | R+4.2 | D |
| 58 | 35.55% | 63.19% | R+27.6 | 30.51% | 64.14% | R+33.6 | R |
| 59 | 30.49% | 67.97% | R+37.5 | 30.74% | 63.05% | R+32.3 | R |
| 60 | 27.40% | 70.85% | R+43.4 | 24.75% | 69.46% | R+44.7 | R |
| 61 | 30.41% | 68.03% | R+37.6 | 21.75% | 73.63% | R+51.9 | R |
| 62 | 37.00% | 61.15% | R+24.2 | 31.04% | 63.50% | R+32.5 | R |
| 63 | 31.20% | 66.99% | R+35.8 | 31.78% | 61.61% | R+29.8 | R |
| 64 | 31.06% | 67.21% | R+36.2 | 26.56% | 67.11% | R+40.5 | R |
| 65 | 56.23% | 41.12% | D+15.1 | 50.32% | 42.57% | D+7.8 | D |
| 66 | 28.55% | 69.70% | R+41.2 | 25.31% | 68.35% | R+43 | R |
| 67 | 48.32% | 49.06% | R+0.7 | 44.07% | 48.71% | R+4.6 | D |
| 68 | 31.30% | 66.80% | R+35.5 | 29.27% | 64.48% | R+35.2 | R |
| 69 | 38.90% | 58.93% | R+20 | 34.35% | 58.94% | R+24.6 | R |
| 70 | 35.60% | 62.91% | R+27.3 | 23.57% | 72.93% | R+49.4 | D |
| 71 | 22.53% | 75.99% | R+53.5 | 18.98% | 77.49% | R+58.5 | R |
| 72 | 40.10% | 58.03% | R+17.9 | 32.18% | 63.34% | R+31.2 | D |
| 73 | 32.99% | 65.40% | R+32.4 | 28.17% | 67.15% | R+39 | R |
| 74 | 36.76% | 61.45% | R+24.7 | 26.75% | 69.75% | R+43 | R |
| 75 | 56.44% | 40.17% | D+16.3 | 59.29% | 32.42% | D+26.9 | D |
| 76 | 54.20% | 43.37% | D+10.8 | 54.52% | 39.06% | D+15.5 | D |
| 77 | 70.90% | 26.97% | D+43.9 | 67.96% | 26.00% | D+42 | D |
| 78 | 35.41% | 62.52% | R+27.1 | 25.41% | 70.22% | R+44.8 | R |
| 79 | 52.52% | 44.89% | D+7.6 | 54.48% | 38.07% | D+16.4 | D |
| 80 | 25.27% | 73.15% | R+47.9 | 18.88% | 77.48% | R+58.6 | R |
| 81 | 41.73% | 55.80% | R+14.1 | 39.31% | 54.03% | R+14.7 | R |
| 82 | 20.17% | 78.63% | R+58.5 | 14.96% | 82.26% | R+67.3 | R |
| 83 | 18.35% | 80.19% | R+61.8 | 13.46% | 83.72% | R+70.3 | R |
| 84 | 18.79% | 79.76% | R+61 | 17.84% | 79.62% | R+61.8 | R |
| 85 | 16.98% | 81.77% | R+64.8 | 13.26% | 83.41% | R+70.1 | R |
| 86 | 21.03% | 77.60% | R+56.6 | 14.55% | 82.39% | R+67.8 | R |
| 87 | 21.56% | 76.86% | R+55.3 | 15.69% | 81.91% | R+66.2 | D |
| 88 | 37.91% | 60.16% | R+22.3 | 42.13% | 50.98% | R+8.8 | R |
| 89 | 21.00% | 77.27% | R+56.3 | 17.30% | 78.99% | R+61.7 | R |
| 90 | 14.04% | 84.43% | R+70.4 | 11.55% | 85.97% | R+74.4 | R |
| 91 | 26.26% | 71.89% | R+45.6 | 21.15% | 75.56% | R+54.4 | R |
| 92 | 26.17% | 71.86% | R+45.7 | 20.45% | 76.99% | R+56.5 | R |
| 93 | 22.68% | 75.61% | R+52.9 | 15.01% | 82.81% | R+67.8 | D |
| 94 | 20.88% | 76.88% | R+56 | 17.76% | 78.99% | R+61.2 | D |
| 95 | 30.76% | 66.72% | R+36 | 23.50% | 73.36% | R+49.9 | R |
| 96 | 33.82% | 63.97% | R+30.1 | 20.35% | 76.02% | R+55.7 | R |
| 97 | 25.32% | 72.56% | R+47.2 | 17.72% | 79.37% | R+61.6 | R |
| 98 | 39.52% | 58.63% | R+19.1 | 25.37% | 71.06% | R+45.7 | R |
| 99 | 40.29% | 57.31% | R+17 | 28.36% | 67.88% | R+39.5 | D |
| 100 | 41.11% | 56.89% | R+15.8 | 29.95% | 65.87% | R+35.9 | D |
| Total | 37.81% | 60.51% | R+22.7 | 32.69% | 62.54% | R+29.8 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
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Categories: [House of Representatives elections, 2018] [Kentucky elections, 2018]
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