Texas Agriculture Commissioner Election, 2018 (March 6 Republican Primary)

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Texas Agriculture Commissioner
Democratic primary Republican primary General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 11, 2017Candidate filing deadline
Primary: March 6, 2018 Primary runoff: May 22, 2018 (if needed) General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent(s): Sid Miller (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Texas
Ballotpedia analysis
Federal and state primary competitiveness State executive elections in 2018 Impact of term limits in 2018 State government trifectas and triplexes Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
Texas executive elections
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Sitting Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller (R) defeated two challengers in the Republican primary election on March 6, 2018—podcast host and former lobbyist Trey Blocker (R) and Jim Hogan (R), who was the Democratic nominee for the seat in 2014. Miller received 56 percent of the vote to Hogan's 23 percent and Blocker's 21 percent. Miller went on to face Kim Olson (D) in the November general election.

The state agriculture commissioner is an elected executive office responsible for managing the Texas Department of Agriculture and setting agriculture policy.^[1] Members are elected to four-year terms in statewide elections. The office has been held by the Republican Party ever since Rick Perry (R) won the 1990 election.

In an interview with Texas Public Radio, University of Houston professor Brandon Rottinghaus argued that the election "will tell us whether or not Republican primary voters are more worried about policy or politics. I think a case can be made that Republican voters will reject Miller for acting in a non-conservative way by raising fees, even if they applaud his tone and tactics." Rottinghaus identified Miller's argument that Blocker had worked with and contributed to Democratic politicians in the past as a potential challenge for Blocker, arguing that voters in primary elections would be less tolerant of a candidate that had connections to the other party.^[2]

In his November 2017 announcement that he would challenge Miller's bid for a second term, Blocker criticized increases in agency fees that occurred during Miller's first term: "Over the past four years, we've watched a career politician, embroiled in ethical controversies, raise taxes and grow government at a level that would make Bernie Sanders proud." In response, Miller argued that Blocker was unqualified for the position: "It’s hard to take him seriously when he claims his ag experience comes from cleaning out horse stalls as a kid."^[3]

As of February 24, 2018, Miller and challenger Blocker had spent a combined $2.2 million, according to campaign finance reports obtained from the Texas Ethics Commission. The reports indicated that Miller had $200,000 in cash on hand to Blocker's $190,000.^[4][5] Jim Hogan had spent just under $3,800.^[6] Hogan indicated to the Houston Chronicle that he intended to self-finance his campaign.^[7]

Candidates and election results[edit]

Incumbent Sid Miller defeated Jim Hogan and Trey Blocker in the Republican primary for Texas Commissioner of Agriculture on March 6, 2018.

Top candidates[edit]

Ballotpedia identified the following candidates as top candidates based on their campaign finance leads as of December 31, 2017.

Sid Miller[edit]

Miller's campaign website argues that his first term's achievements include support for President Trump, enforcement of accurate weights and measures, a new school nutrition program, and representing Texas abroad. Miller argues that "Texas is a beacon of patriotism, rugged individualism, and courage" and promises to "fight for these values that have always made Texas great."^[8]

Miller has received endorsements from Pres. Donald Trump (R), former Gov. Rick Perry (R), former Rep. Tom DeLay (R), and former Maricopa County, Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R), as well as industry associations such as the Texas Cattle Feeders Association and the Texas Association of Dairymen.^[9]

Trey Blocker[edit]

In his announcement that he would challenge Miller, Blocker referred to concerns over the management of the state's agriculture department: "we need to bring honesty, integrity and fiscal responsibility back to the Department of Agriculture...We need to restore TDA to its core mission of promoting, protecting and preserving Texas agriculture and rural Texas."^[11] Blocker's campaign website highlights his policy positions on agriculture, immigration, and firearms regulations.^[12]

Blocker has received endorsements from The Dallas Morning News as well as industry associations including the Texas Restaurant Association and the Texas Food & Fuel Association.

List of all candidates[edit]

Republicans

• Sid Miller - Incumbent a
• Trey Blocker
• Jim Hogan

Endorsements[edit]

Campaign tactics and strategies[edit]

Campaign ads[edit]

Sid Miller[edit]

Oppose[edit]

Trey Blocker[edit]

Support[edit]

Oppose[edit]

Online presence[edit]

March 1, 2018[edit]

The following social media statistics were compiled on March 1, 2018.

	Facebook			Twitter
Candidate	Followers	Likes	Comments on Last Ten PostsThis refers to the total number of comments left on the ten most recent Facebook posts when the study was completed.	Followers	Following	Tweets
Miller	647,476	661,505	1,051	6,171	1,180	7,900
Blocker	34,442	34,431	270	875	611	163

January 28, 2018[edit]

The following social media statistics were compiled on January 28, 2018.

	Facebook			Twitter
Candidate	Followers	Likes	Comments on Last Ten PostsThis refers to the total number of comments left on the ten most recent Facebook posts when the study was completed.	Followers	Following	Tweets
Miller	640,527	654,380	435	6,080	1,183	7,947
Blocker	51,528	51,538	210	980	624	192

Tweets by Sid Miller Tweets by Trey Blocker

Campaign finance[edit]

Following are figures obtained from the Texas Ethics Commission containing information on all contributions to and expenditures by the Miller, Blocker, and Hogan campaigns as of January 25, 2018. Information was also provided on the campaigns' cash reserves on hand and outstanding debt as of that date.

Both Miller and Blocker have made use of self-funding. Reports filed with the Texas Ethics Commission indicate that Miller loaned $300,000 to his own campaign on December 29, 2017.^[56] As of February 24, 2018, the loan remained outstanding. Blocker loaned $750,000 to his own campaign on June 30, 2017.^[57] The campaign repaid $500,000 of that amount on August 15, 2017. The reports indicate two additional loans made by Blocker to his campaign which remained outstanding as of February 24, 2018 - a $50,000 loan made on October 19, 2017, and a $300,000 loan made on December 30, 2017.^[58]

Polls[edit]

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

Debates and forums[edit]

February 15, 2018[edit]

On February 15, 2018, Sid Miller (R) and Trey Blocker (R) met for a debate hosted by the McLennan County Republican Club. As in the February 6 debate, Blocker criticized Miller for fee increases during his first term in office and argued that Miller had used taxpayer funding for personal trips. Miller countered that Blocker had previously worked as a lobbyist, including for Democratic clients, and had given campaign contributions to Democratic politicians.^[59]

February 6 debate[edit]

On February 6, 2018, Sid Miller (R) and Trey Blocker (R) met for a debate hosted by Grassroots America—We the People. Blocker criticized Miller for decisions that he had made during his first term in office, including an increase in the department's fees. Miller argued that the fee increase was the first in decades and that it had been necessitated by a funding cut passed by the state Legislature. He added that a decrease in fees was forthcoming. Miller argued that Blocker was ill-suited for the job, arguing that he had previously worked as a lobbyist and had connections with Democratic politicians. Blocker countered that Miller, too, had previously worked as a lobbyist and that President Trump (R) had given to Democratic candidates in the past.^[60]

Media coverage[edit]

Media reactions to election outcome[edit]

This section provides an overview of media reactions to the election's result. Selected articles are presented as a jumping-off point for deeper exploration of media coverage and as an overview of narratives that emerged surrounding the election.

• Kiah Collier, The Texas Tribune (March 6, 2018)

"Miller’s strength in the race was a sign of the Republican Party’s shift to the right and increasing preference for candidates who speak their minds and snub political correctness, said University of Houston political scientist Brandon Rottinghaus.

He said Blocker has was [sic] seen as the establishment candidate in the race for focusing on fiscal responsibility and good governance rather than trying to match Miller’s social media bluster."^[61]

• Robert T. Garrett and James Barragan, The Dallas Morning News (March 7, 2018)

"Looking for soft spots in the current lineup of state constitutional officeholders, boisterous challengers tried to pick off Land Commissioner George P. Bush and Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller.

Despite cantankerous campaigns, the challengers lost badly Tuesday.

'It was definitely the night of the incumbents,' Jones said."^[62]

• Josh Voorhees, Slate (March 7, 2018)

"As I put it before the votes started to come in, this race was a test of whether the kind of norm-breaking behavior that has failed to sink Trump might have consequences further down the ballot. In this case, it did not."^[63]

Timeline[edit]

Past elections[edit]

2014[edit]

See also: Texas down ballot state executive elections, 2014

Sid Miller defeated Tommy Merritt in the 2014 Republican primary runoff. Miller and Merritt defeated Eric Opiela, Joe Cotten, and J. Allen Carnes in the initial primary.^[64][65]

Texas Agriculture Commissioner Republican Primary Runoff, 2014
Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Sid Miller	53.2%	364,756
Tommy Merritt	46.8%	320,835
Total Votes		685,591
Election results via Texas Secretary of State. Vote totals above are unofficial and reflect 98 precincts reporting.

Texas Agriculture Commissioner Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Sid Miller	34.6%	411,560
Tommy Merritt	20.9%	249,440
Eric Opiela	17.4%	207,222
Joe Cotten	14.6%	174,348
J. Allen Carnes	12.4%	148,222
Total Votes		1,190,792
Election results via Texas Secretary of State.

State overview[edit]

Partisan control[edit]

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Texas heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation[edit]

• Republicans held both U.S. Senate seats in Texas.
• Republicans held 25 of 36 U.S. House seats in Texas, and Democrats held 11.

State executives[edit]

• As of May 2018, Republicans held six of 11 state executive positions and five positions were held by nonpartisan officials.
• The governor of Texas was Republican Greg Abbott.

State legislature[edit]

• Republicans controlled both chambers of the Texas State Legislature. They had a 93-55 majority in the state House and a 21-10 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status[edit]

• Texas was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party held the governorship, a majority in the state Senate, and a majority in the state House.

2018 elections[edit]

See also: Texas elections, 2018

Texas held elections for the following positions in 2018:

• The Class 1 U.S. Senate seat held by Ted Cruz (R)
• All 36 U.S. House seats
• Governor
• Five lower state executive positions
• 15 of 31 state Senate seats
• All 150 state House seats
• Local judicial offices
• Local school boards
• Municipal elections in Arlington, Austin, Bexar County, Collin County, Corpus Christi, Dallas County, Denton County, El Paso County, Fort Bend County, Garland, Harris County, Irving, Laredo, Lubbock, Lubbock County, Nueces County, Tarrant County, Travis County, Webb County, and Williamson County

Demographics[edit]

As of July 2016, Texas had a population of approximately 27,862,596 people, and its three largest cities were Houston (pop. est. 2.3 million), San Antonio (pop. est. 1.5 million), and Dallas (pop. est. 1.3 million).^[66][67]

State election history[edit]

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Texas from 2000 to 2016.

Historical elections[edit]

Presidential elections, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Texas every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Texas 2000-2016[68][69]
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2016	Donald Trump	52.23%	Hillary Clinton	43.24%	8.99%
2012	Mitt Romney	57.17%	Barack Obama	41.38%	15.79%
2008	John McCain	55.45%	Barack Obama	43.68%	11.77%
2004	George W. Bush	61.09%	John Kerry	38.22%	22.87%
2000	George W. Bush	59.30%	Al Gore	37.98%	21.32%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Texas from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Texas 2000-2016[70]
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2014[71]	John Cornyn	61.56%	David Alameel	34.36%	27.20%
2012[72]	Ted Cruz	56.46%	Paul Sadler	40.62%	15.84%
2008[73]	John Cornyn	54.82%	Richard Noriega	42.84%	11.98%
2006[74]	Kay Bailey Hutchison	61.69%	Barbara Ann Radnofsky	36.04%	25.65%
2002[75]	John Cornyn	55.30%	Ron Kirk	43.33%	11.97%
2000[76]	Kay Bailey Hutchison	65.04%	Gene Kelly	32.35%	32.69%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2014[edit]

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2014. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Texas.

Election results (Governor), Texas 2000-2016[77]
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2014	Greg Abbott	59.27%	Wendy Davis	38.90%	20.37%
2010	Rick Perry	54.97%	Bill White	42.30%	12.67%
2006	Rick Perry	39.03%	Chris Bell	29.79%	9.24%
2002	Rick Perry	57.81%	Tony Sanchez	39.96%	17.85%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Texas in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Texas 2000-2016
Year	Republicans	Republicans (%)	Democrats	Democrats (%)	Balance of power
2016	25	69.4%	11	30.6%	R+14
2014	25	69.4%	11	30.6%	R+14
2012	24	66.7%	12	33.3%	R+12
2010	23	71.9%	9	28.1%	R+14
2008	20	62.5%	12	37.5%	R+8
2006	19	59.4%	13	40.6%	R+6
2004	21	65.6%	11	34.4%	R+10
2002	15	46.9%	17	53.1%	D+2
2000	13	43.3%	17	56.7%	D+4

Trifectas, 1992-2017[edit]

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Recent news[edit]

The link below is to the most recent stories in a Google news search for the terms Texas agriculture commissioner Republican primary 2018. These results are automatically generated from Google. Ballotpedia does not curate or endorse these articles.

See also[edit]

External links[edit]

Suggest a link

• Agriculture Commissioner of Texas official website

Footnotes[edit]

v • e Texas Republican primaries to watch, 2018 U.S. overview Republican Party primaries, 2018 • Democratic Party primaries, 2018 • Endorsements in the Texas congressional primaries, 2018 TX overview Republican primaries in Texas • Democratic primaries in Texas Congress Texas' 2nd Congressional District (Ted Poe's seat) • Texas' 5th Congressional District (Jeb Hensarling's seat) • Texas' 6th Congressional District (Joe Barton's seat) • Texas' 21st Congressional District (Lamar Smith's seat) • Texas' 27th Congressional District (Blake Farenthold's seat)  State leg State legislative Republican primaries overview • Who were the Republican factions? • Races to watch  State exec Texas Agriculture Commissioner (primary challenge of Sid Miller)  Primary runoffs Congressional runoffs • State legislative runoffs

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