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November 6, 2012 |
Voting on November 6, 2012 • Poll Opening and Closing Times |
Elections to the U.S. House were held on November 6, 2012. All 435 seats were up for election.
The 2012 elections were the first using new redistricting maps based on 2010 Census data. As a result of redistricting, the number of competitive swing races was expected to drop below 100.[1] Redistricting was considered a draw between Democrats and Republicans, with both parties gaining advantages in some states.[2] Democrats would have required a net gain of 25 seats to re-take control of the U.S. House.[3] The 2012 election produced the largest class of Latinos to ever enter Congress, while simultaneously showing the biggest increase in total seats held by Latino representatives in the history of the House. There were 22 incumbent Latinos on the ballot, and as many as nine additional challengers were considered possible to win. A total of 30 Latino members were elected to the 113th Congress.[4][5]
For only the fourth time in 100 years, the party that pulled the most total popular votes nationwide did not win control of the House.[6][7] Democratic candidates nationwide tallied more votes than Republican candidates. The last time this occurred was in 1952, when Democrats won the popular vote but Republicans won the House. The other two times this phenomenon took place was 1914 and 1942, when Republicans won the popular vote but did not win the most seats.[8] Republicans were not required to win a single Democratic-leaning district in order to hold their majority, owing to the fact that 241 districts had GOP-leaning populations.[9]
Following the general election, Democratic candidates held on to nine seats that had a political lean favoring Republicans by 54% or more. This was down from prior to 2010 where Democrats held 32 seats in that same environment. With regards to ticket-splitting, there were 24 districts in which one party's nominee carried the presidential vote and the other party's nominee won the congressional race. All but four of which were won by an incumbent.[10]
In 2010, 54 incumbents lost to challengers in the general election with Republicans swinging 63 total seats in their favor.[11][12]
Heading into the 2012 election, Republicans were the majority party in the U.S. House. A total of 218 seats were needed for a majority. Republicans could have lost as many as 24 seats in the November election and still maintained control of the chamber. Democrats needed to win at least 25 seats to take back the partisan advantage.
| U.S. House Partisan Breakdown | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 2012 | After the 2012 Election | |
| Democratic Party | 193 | 201 | |
| Republican Party | 242 | 234 | |
| Total | 435 | 435 | |
A Washington Post article in May 2012 indicated that the Republican House majority was no guarantee, based on polls indicated the vulnerability of some incumbents in neutral districts.[13] A Politico story in May 2012 pointed to California as the likely state that would determine whether Democrats win control of the House.[14] An October 24, 2012, article in Bloomberg Businessweek indicated that Republicans were in a "strong position" to retain their majority in the House. Political analysts predicted that Democrats could gain up to 10 seats on election night.[15][16] A Salon article highlighted that while Democratic candidates won more than a million votes over Republican candidates in the 2012 general election, most of the votes were clustered around urban areas as opposed being broadly dispersed across the country. There are 47 districts with a partisan divide of 70 percent to 30 percent in favor of Democrats. Only 23 such districts exist on the Republican side. Of the 16 districts where the partisan divide is 80% to 20% or more, Democrats represent 15 of them.[10]
There were a total of 435 seats up for election in 2012. The following table shows the margin of victory for each race winner, which is calculated by examining the percentage difference between the top-two vote getters. If the race was uncontested, the margin of victory is listed as 100%. Some general facts:
| Margin of Victory in 2012 United States House of Representatives Elections | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Winner | Margin of Victory | Total Votes | Top Opponent | ||||
| North Carolina, District 7 | 0.2% | 336,736 | David Rouzer | |||||
| Illinois, District 13 | 0.3% | 294,385 | David Gill | |||||
| Utah, District 4 | 0.3% | 245,277 | Mia B. Love | |||||
| Michigan, District 1 | 0.5% | 347,037 | Gary McDowell | |||||
| Florida, District 18 | 0.6% | 330,665 | Allen West | |||||
| Arizona, District 2 | 0.8% | 292,279 | Martha McSally | |||||
| Massachusetts, District 6 | 1.1% | 389,852 | Richard Tisei | |||||
| Minnesota, District 6 | 1.2% | 355,153 | Jim Graves | |||||
| Illinois, District 10 | 1.3% | 264,454 | Robert J. Dold | |||||
| Indiana, District 2 | 1.4% | 273,475 | Brendan Mullen | |||||
| New York, District 27 | 1.5% | 329,768 | Kathy Hochul | |||||
| Nebraska, District 2 | 1.6% | 263,731 | John Ewing | |||||
| New York, District 21 | 1.9% | 268,741 | Matthew Doheny | |||||
| Colorado, District 6 | 2% | 342,891 | Joe Miklosi | |||||
| California, District 52 | 2.4% | 295,910 | Brian Bilbray | |||||
| Connecticut, District 5 | 2.6% | 284,747 | Andrew Roraback | |||||
| California, District 7 | 3.4% | 273,291 | Dan Lungren | |||||
| Florida, District 10 | 3.5% | 318,269 | Val Demings | |||||
| Pennsylvania, District 12 | 3.5% | 338,941 | Mark Critz | |||||
| Arizona, District 1 | 3.6% | 251,595 | Jonathon Paton | |||||
| New York, District 23 | 3.6% | 279,796 | Nate Shinagawa | |||||
| New York, District 18 | 3.7% | 295,436 | Nan Hayworth | |||||
| New Hampshire, District 1 | 3.8% | 344,830 | Frank Guinta | |||||
| Kentucky, District 6 | 3.9% | 303,000 | Ben Chandler | |||||
| Arizona, District 9 | 4.1% | 250,141 | Vernon B. Parker | |||||
| Ohio, District 16 | 4.1% | 355,765 | Betty Sutton | |||||
| California, District 15 | 4.2% | 231,034 | Pete Stark | |||||
| New York, District 1 | 4.6% | 294,578 | Randy Altschuler | |||||
| New Hampshire, District 2 | 4.8% | 337,188 | Charles Bass | |||||
| Texas, District 23 | 4.8% | 192,169 | Francisco Canseco | |||||
| New York, District 11 | 5% | 214,755 | Mark Murphy | |||||
| New York, District 19 | 5.3% | 305,882 | Julian Schreibman | |||||
| New York, District 24 | 5.3% | 303,567 | Ann Marie Buerkle | |||||
| California, District 26 | 5.4% | 263,935 | Tony Strickland | |||||
| California, District 10 | 5.4% | 209,199 | Jose Hernandez | |||||
| Florida, District 2 | 5.5% | 333,718 | Al Lawson | |||||
| California, District 36 | 5.9% | 208,142 | Mary Bono Mack | |||||
| North Carolina, District 9 | 6.1% | 375,690 | Jennifer Roberts | |||||
| Michigan, District 11 | 6.4% | 358,124 | Syed Taj | |||||
| Ohio, District 6 | 6.5% | 308,980 | Charlie Wilson | |||||
| Illinois, District 17 | 6.6% | 288,152 | Bobby Schilling | |||||
| West Virginia, District 3 | 7.1% | 191,518 | Rick Snuffer | |||||
| Florida, District 16 | 7.2% | 349,076 | Keith Fitzgerald | |||||
| Georgia, District 12 | 7.4% | 259,121 | Lee Anderson | |||||
| Nevada, District 3 | 7.5% | 272,523 | John Oceguera | |||||
| Virginia, District 2 | 7.7% | 309,222 | Paul Hirschbiel | |||||
| North Carolina, District 8 | 7.8% | 302,280 | Larry Kissell | |||||
| California, District 33 | 7.9% | 318,520 | Bill Bloomfield | |||||
| Washington, District 1 | 7.9% | 328,212 | John Koster | |||||
| Nevada, District 4 | 8% | 240,492 | Danny Tarkanian | |||||
| Iowa, District 4 | 8.1% | 377,657 | Christie Vilsack | |||||
| Minnesota, District 2 | 8.2% | 358,446 | Mike Obermuller | |||||
| Michigan, District 3 | 8.4% | 326,281 | Steve Pestka | |||||
| California, District 3 | 8.5% | 233,968 | Kim Vann | |||||
| Iowa, District 3 | 8.6% | 386,270 | Leonard Boswell | |||||
| Illinois, District 12 | 8.9% | 303,947 | Jason Plummer | |||||
| Minnesota, District 8 | 8.9% | 353,663 | Chip Cravaack | |||||
| New Jersey, District 3 | 8.9% | 324,408 | Shelley Adler | |||||
| Texas, District 14 | 8.9% | 245,839 | Nick Lampson | |||||
| Hawaii, District 1 | 9% | 217,796 | Charles Djou | |||||
| Florida, District 22 | 9.3% | 313,071 | Adam Hasner | |||||
| Illinois, District 8 | 9.5% | 225,066 | Joe Walsh | |||||
| California, District 25 | 9.6% | 236,575 | Lee Rogers | |||||
| California, District 24 | 10.2% | 284,495 | Abel Maldonado | |||||
| Michigan, District 7 | 10.3% | 318,069 | Kurt R. Haskell | |||||
| Indiana, District 8 | 10.3% | 283,992 | Dave Crooks | |||||
| California, District 31 | 10.4% | 161,219 | Bob Dutton | |||||
| Montana, At-Large, District | 10.5% | 479,740 | Kim Gillan | |||||
| Florida, District 26 | 10.6% | 252,957 | David Rivera | |||||
| Indiana, District 9 | 10.9% | 298,180 | Shelli Yoder | |||||
| California, District 9 | 11.1% | 213,077 | Ricky Gill | |||||
| South Carolina, District 5 | 11.1% | 278,003 | Joyce Knott | |||||
| South Carolina, District 7 | 11.1% | 275,738 | Gloria Bromell Tinubu | |||||
| Tennessee, District 4 | 11.5% | 230,590 | Eric Stewart | |||||
| Wisconsin, District 1 | 11.5% | 365,058 | Rob Zerban | |||||
| Oregon, District 5 | 11.6% | 327,970 | Fred Thompson | |||||
| California, District 35 | 11.7% | 142,680 | Joe Baca | |||||
| Michigan, District 6 | 12% | 320,475 | Mike O'Brien | |||||
| Wisconsin, District 8 | 12% | 355,464 | Jamie Wall | |||||
| Rhode Island, District 1 | 12.1% | 205,115 | Brendan Doherty | |||||
| Colorado, District 3 | 12.3% | 347,247 | Sal Pace | |||||
| New Jersey, District 5 | 12.3% | 304,371 | Adam Gussen | |||||
| Wisconsin, District 7 | 12.3% | 359,669 | Pat Kreitlow | |||||
| Virginia, District 5 | 12.6% | 348,111 | John Douglass | |||||
| Colorado, District 7 | 12.7% | 340,970 | Joe Coors, Jr. | |||||
| Ohio, District 7 | 12.8% | 315,812 | Joyce Healy-Abrams | |||||
| Iowa, District 2 | 13.1% | 380,952 | John Archer | |||||
| California, District 47 | 13.1% | 230,012 | Gary DeLong | |||||
| North Dakota, At-Large, District | 13.2% | 316,224 | Pam Gulleson | |||||
| Pennsylvania, District 8 | 13.2% | 352,238 | Kathryn Boockvar | |||||
| Pennsylvania, District 15 | 13.5% | 297,724 | Rick Daugherty | |||||
| North Carolina, District 13 | 13.6% | 370,610 | Charles Malone | |||||
| Pennsylvania, District 3 | 13.8% | 302,514 | Missa Eaton | |||||
| North Carolina, District 10 | 14% | 334,849 | Patricia Keever | |||||
| Virginia, District 4 | 14% | 350,046 | Ella Ward | |||||
| Pennsylvania, District 6 | 14.3% | 335,528 | Manan Trivedi | |||||
| Florida, District 6 | 14.4% | 342,451 | Heather Beaven | |||||
| New York, District 25 | 14.4% | 322,760 | Maggie Brooks | |||||
| North Carolina, District 2 | 14.5% | 311,397 | Steve Wilkins | |||||
| New York, District 3 | 14.6% | 306,274 | Stephen Labate | |||||
| California, District 1 | 14.8% | 294,213 | Jim Reed | |||||
| California, District 16 | 14.8% | 147,450 | Brian Daniel Whelan | |||||
| California, District 8 | 14.8% | 179,644 | Greg Imus | |||||
| North Carolina, District 11 | 14.8% | 331,426 | Hayden Rogers | |||||
| South Dakota, At-Large, District | 14.9% | 361,429 | Matt Varilek | |||||
| Florida, District 13 | 15.1% | 329,347 | Jessica Ehrlich | |||||
| North Carolina, District 5 | 15.1% | 349,197 | Elisabeth Motsinger | |||||
| Virginia, District 1 | 15.1% | 356,806 | Adam Cook | |||||
| Minnesota, District 1 | 15.2% | 335,880 | Allen Quist | |||||
| Ohio, District 14 | 15.3% | 339,868 | Dale Virgil Blanchard | |||||
| Iowa, District 1 | 15.4% | 390,590 | Ben Lange | |||||
| New York, District 2 | 15.4% | 271,832 | Vivianne Falcone | |||||
| California, District 21 | 15.5% | 116,283 | John Hernandez | |||||
| California, District 39 | 15.6% | 251,967 | Jay Chen | |||||
| Maine, District 2 | 15.7% | 343,908 | Kevin Raye | |||||
| Arkansas, District 2 | 15.7% | 286,598 | Herb Rule | |||||
| Pennsylvania, District 16 | 15.8% | 284,781 | Aryanna Strader | |||||
| Minnesota, District 3 | 16.3% | 382,705 | Brian Barnes | |||||
| California, District 49 | 16.3% | 274,618 | Jerry Tetalman | |||||
| California, District 45 | 16.9% | 293,231 | Sukhee Kang | |||||
| Virginia, District 7 | 17% | 381,909 | E. Wayne Powell | |||||
| Illinois, District 11 | 17.1% | 254,276 | Judy Biggert | |||||
| Arkansas, District 1 | 17.1% | 246,843 | Scott Ellington | |||||
| Colorado, District 2 | 17.1% | 421,580 | Kevin Lundberg | |||||
| Pennsylvania, District 11 | 17.1% | 285,198 | Gene Stilp | |||||
| New Jersey, District 7 | 17.1% | 307,315 | Upendra Chivukula | |||||
| Washington, District 10 | 17.1% | 278,417 | Richard Muri | |||||
| Florida, District 17 | 17.3% | 282,266 | William Bronson | |||||
| Ohio, District 2 | 17.3% | 331,373 | William R. Smith | |||||
| Florida, District 7 | 17.4% | 316,010 | Jason Kendall | |||||
| New Jersey, District 2 | 17.4% | 289,069 | Cassandra Shober | |||||
| Texas, District 27 | 17.5% | 212,651 | Rose Meza Harrison | |||||
| Illinois, District 14 | 17.6% | 301,954 | Dennis Anderson | |||||
| California, District 40 | 17.8% | 125,553 | David Sanchez | |||||
| California, District 41 | 17.9% | 175,652 | John Tavaglione | |||||
| Washington, District 6 | 18% | 316,386 | Bill Driscoll | |||||
| Ohio, District 5 | 18.1% | 351,878 | Angela Zimmann | |||||
| New Mexico, District 2 | 18.2% | 225,515 | Evelyn Madrid Erhard | |||||
| Kansas, District 2 | 18.3% | 293,718 | Tobias Schlingensiepen | |||||
| New Mexico, District 1 | 18.3% | 275,856 | Janice Arnold-Jones | |||||
| Illinois, District 6 | 18.4% | 326,129 | Leslie Coolidge | |||||
| New Jersey, District 11 | 18.8% | 309,859 | John Arvanites | |||||
| Pennsylvania, District 7 | 18.8% | 353,451 | George Badey | |||||
| Texas, District 6 | 18.8% | 249,936 | Kenneth Sanders | |||||
| Texas, District 32 | 18.8% | 251,636 | Katherine Savers McGovern | |||||
| Oklahoma, District 2 | 19% | 250,612 | Rob Wallace | |||||
| Washington, District 8 | 19.3% | 302,090 | Karen Porterfield | |||||
| Virginia, District 10 | 19.7% | 366,444 | Kristin Cabral | |||||
| Connecticut, District 4 | 19.9% | 293,432 | Steve Obsitnik | |||||
| New York, District 22 | 19.9% | 280,189 | Dan Lamb | |||||
| Oregon, District 4 | 20.1% | 360,088 | Art Robinson | |||||
| Ohio, District 1 | 20.1% | 349,716 | Jeff Sinnard | |||||
| California, District 44 | 20.4% | 165,898 | Laura Richardson | |||||
| California, District 30 | 20.6% | 247,851 | Howard Berman | |||||
| Pennsylvania, District 17 | 20.6% | 267,601 | Laureen Cummings | |||||
| Rhode Island, District 2 | 20.6% | 222,660 | Michael G. Riley | |||||
| Indiana, District 5 | 20.8% | 333,359 | Scott Reske | |||||
| Washington, District 3 | 20.8% | 293,884 | Jon T. Haugen | |||||
| Maryland, District 6 | 20.9% | 309,549 | Roscoe Bartlett | |||||
| Texas, District 25 | 21% | 263,932 | Elaine M. Henderson | |||||
| Arizona, District 3 | 21.2% | 168,698 | Gabriela Saucedo Mercer | |||||
| California, District 42 | 21.2% | 214,947 | Michael Williamson | |||||
| Michigan, District 8 | 21.3% | 345,054 | Lance Enderle | |||||
| Florida, District 8 | 21.4% | 348,909 | Shannon Roberts | |||||
| Oklahoma, District 5 | 21.4% | 261,677 | Tom Guild | |||||
| Nevada, District 2 | 21.4% | 281,449 | Samuel Koepnick | |||||
| Colorado, District 4 | 21.7% | 342,076 | Brandon Shaffer | |||||
| Louisiana, District 3 | 21.8% | 96,584 | Jeff Landry | |||||
| North Carolina, District 6 | 21.8% | 364,583 | Tony Foriest | |||||
| Ohio, District 4 | 21.9% | 312,998 | Jim Slone | |||||
| California, District 48 | 22% | 290,502 | Ron Varasteh | |||||
| Ohio, District 10 | 22.1% | 349,671 | Sharen Swartz Neuhardt | |||||
| California, District 4 | 22.2% | 323,688 | Jack Uppal | |||||
| Washington, District 2 | 22.3% | 302,291 | Dan Matthews | |||||
| Virginia, District 9 | 22.7% | 301,658 | Anthony Flaccavento | |||||
| Arkansas, District 4 | 22.8% | 258,953 | Gene Jeffress | |||||
| California, District 53 | 22.9% | 268,307 | Nick Popaditch | |||||
| Missouri, District 2 | 23% | 394,448 | Glenn Koenen | |||||
| Ohio, District 15 | 23.1% | 333,462 | Pat Lang | |||||
| Florida, District 27 | 23.2% | 230,171 | Manny Yevancey | |||||
| Pennsylvania, District 9 | 23.3% | 274,305 | Karen Ramsburg | |||||
| Mississippi, District 1 | 23.5% | 309,177 | Brad Morris | |||||
| Illinois, District 16 | 23.6% | 294,090 | Wanda Rohl | |||||
| Missouri, District 5 | 23.6% | 330,936 | Jacob Turk | |||||
| California, District 22 | 23.8% | 213,941 | Otto Lee | |||||
| Washington, District 5 | 23.8% | 308,578 | Rich Cowan | |||||
| Indiana, District 6 | 24% | 275,253 | Brad Bookout | |||||
| Texas, District 15 | 24% | 146,661 | Dale A. Brueggemann | |||||
| Georgia, District 7 | 24.3% | 252,066 | Steve Reilly | |||||
| Texas, District 10 | 24.3% | 264,019 | Tawana W. Cadien | |||||
| Wisconsin, District 6 | 24.3% | 359,745 | Joe Kallas | |||||
| Texas, District 7 | 24.4% | 234,837 | James Cargas | |||||
| Massachusetts, District 4 | 24.5% | 373,114 | Sean Bielat | |||||
| West Virginia, District 1 | 24.6% | 194,863 | Sue Thorn | |||||
| Missouri, District 4 | 24.8% | 318,723 | Teresa Hensley | |||||
| Massachusetts, District 9 | 24.9% | 385,799 | Christopher Sheldon | |||||
| Florida, District 9 | 25% | 263,747 | Todd Long | |||||
| Texas, District 24 | 25% | 243,489 | Tim Rusk | |||||
| Texas, District 21 | 25.2% | 308,865 | Candace E. Duval | |||||
| Pennsylvania, District 4 | 25.3% | 303,980 | Harry Perkinson | |||||
| Minnesota, District 7 | 25.5% | 327,576 | Lee Byberg | |||||
| Virginia, District 11 | 25.5% | 332,243 | Chris Perkins | |||||
| Indiana, District 7 | 25.7% | 257,950 | Carlos May | |||||
| Texas, District 34 | 25.7% | 144,778 | Jessica Puente Bradshaw | |||||
| Pennsylvania, District 5 | 25.8% | 282,465 | Charles Dumas | |||||
| Georgia, District 1 | 26% | 249,580 | Lesli Messinger | |||||
| Tennessee, District 3 | 26% | 256,829 | Mary Headrick | |||||
| New York, District 4 | 26.1% | 299,484 | Francis Becker Jr. | |||||
| Florida, District 19 | 26.2% | 306,216 | Jim Roach | |||||
| North Carolina, District 3 | 26.2% | 309,885 | Erik Anderson | |||||
| New Mexico, District 3 | 26.2% | 264,719 | Jeff Byrd | |||||
| South Carolina, District 1 | 26.3% | 290,013 | Bobbie Rose | |||||
| Texas, District 31 | 26.3% | 237,187 | Stephen M. Wyman | |||||
| Oregon, District 1 | 26.6% | 331,980 | Delinda Morgan | |||||
| New York, District 17 | 26.7% | 297,379 | Joe Carvin | |||||
| Michigan, District 2 | 26.9% | 318,267 | Willie German, Jr. | |||||
| Ohio, District 12 | 26.9% | 368,474 | James Reese | |||||
| Kentucky, District 4 | 27.2% | 299,444 | Bill Adkins | |||||
| Alabama, District 2 | 27.3% | 283,953 | Therese Ford | |||||
| Georgia, District 2 | 27.6% | 255,161 | John House | |||||
| Florida, District 23 | 27.6% | 275,430 | Karen Harrington | |||||
| California, District 46 | 27.7% | 149,815 | Jerry Hayden | |||||
| Indiana, District 4 | 27.8% | 272,268 | Tara Nelson | |||||
| Michigan, District 9 | 27.9% | 337,316 | Don Volaric | |||||
| Pennsylvania, District 18 | 27.9% | 338,873 | Larry Maggi | |||||
| California, District 27 | 28% | 241,008 | Jack Orswell | |||||
| Arizona, District 6 | 28% | 293,177 | Matt Jette | |||||
| New Jersey, District 6 | 28.1% | 239,638 | Anna Little | |||||
| Alabama, District 3 | 28.2% | 273,930 | John Andrew Harris | |||||
| Maine, District 1 | 28.3% | 380,715 | Jonathan Courtney | |||||
| Arizona, District 8 | 28.3% | 272,791 | Gene Scharer | |||||
| Wisconsin, District 3 | 28.3% | 339,764 | Ray Boland | |||||
| New Jersey, District 4 | 28.5% | 306,247 | Brian Froelich | |||||
| Utah, District 2 | 28.7% | 248,545 | Jay Seegmiller | |||||
| Georgia, District 6 | 29% | 294,034 | Jeff Kazanow | |||||
| Florida, District 11 | 29% | 338,663 | David Werder | |||||
| Kentucky, District 3 | 29.4% | 322,656 | Brooks Wicker | |||||
| Michigan, District 4 | 29.5% | 312,949 | Debra Freidell Wirth | |||||
| Alabama, District 5 | 30% | 291,293 | Charlie L. Holley | |||||
| Louisiana, District 2 | 30.1% | 287,354 | Gary Landrieu | |||||
| Idaho, District 2 | 30.3% | 318,494 | Nicole LeFavour | |||||
| Maryland, District 8 | 30.4% | 343,256 | Ken Timmerman | |||||
| Texas, District 20 | 30.4% | 186,177 | David Rosa | |||||
| Florida, District 12 | 30.5% | 330,167 | Jonathan Michael Snow | |||||
| Kansas, District 4 | 30.6% | 258,922 | Robert Leo Tillman | |||||
| Missouri, District 3 | 30.6% | 338,385 | Eric C. Mayer | |||||
| Massachusetts, District 3 | 30.7% | 335,111 | Jon Golnik | |||||
| Virginia, District 6 | 30.7% | 323,893 | Andy Schmookler | |||||
| Minnesota, District 4 | 30.8% | 347,991 | Tony Hernandez | |||||
| Pennsylvania, District 10 | 31.2% | 273,790 | Philip Scollo | |||||
| South Carolina, District 4 | 31.2% | 266,884 | Deb Morrow | |||||
| Texas, District 5 | 31.2% | 208,230 | Linda S. Mrosko | |||||
| California, District 32 | 31.4% | 190,111 | David Miller | |||||
| Oklahoma, District 1 | 31.4% | 285,312 | John Olson | |||||
| Delaware, At-Large, District | 31.5% | 368,154 | Thomas Kovach | |||||
| Texas, District 35 | 31.9% | 165,179 | Susan Narvaiz | |||||
| Nevada, District 1 | 32% | 179,278 | Chris Edwards | |||||
| Texas, District 22 | 32.1% | 250,911 | Kesha Rogers | |||||
| Texas, District 2 | 32.1% | 246,328 | Jim Dougherty | |||||
| Idaho, District 1 | 32.2% | 316,724 | Jimmy Farris | |||||
| Florida, District 3 | 32.3% | 315,669 | Jacques Rene Gaillot, Jr. | |||||
| New York, District 6 | 32.4% | 186,932 | Daniel Halloran | |||||
| Washington, District 4 | 32.4% | 233,689 | Mary Baechler | |||||
| Missouri, District 6 | 32.5% | 333,688 | Kyle Yarber | |||||
| Texas, District 16 | 32.5% | 155,005 | Barbara Carrasco | |||||
| Tennessee, District 5 | 32.5% | 263,083 | Brad Staats | |||||
| Kentucky, District 2 | 32.6% | 282,267 | David Lynn Williams | |||||
| Illinois, District 9 | 32.7% | 293,793 | Timothy Wolfe | |||||
| Missouri, District 7 | 33% | 318,731 | Jim Evans | |||||
| South Carolina, District 3 | 33.3% | 254,763 | Brian Doyle | |||||
| Michigan, District 5 | 33.5% | 330,146 | Jim Slezak | |||||
| Virginia, District 8 | 34% | 351,187 | Patrick Murray | |||||
| Indiana, District 3 | 34.1% | 280,235 | Kevin Boyd | |||||
| Arizona, District 5 | 34.4% | 273,059 | Spencer Morgan | |||||
| Maryland, District 2 | 34.5% | 295,940 | Nancy Jacobs | |||||
| New York, District 20 | 34.5% | 317,678 | Robert Dieterich | |||||
| Indiana, District 1 | 34.6% | 279,034 | Joel Phelps | |||||
| California, District 38 | 35.1% | 215,087 | Benjamin Campos | |||||
| Alaska, At-Large, District | 35.3% | 289,804 | Sharon M. Cissna | |||||
| Mississippi, District 4 | 35.3% | 285,432 | Matthew Moore | |||||
| California, District 50 | 35.4% | 258,293 | David Secor | |||||
| Wisconsin, District 5 | 35.7% | 369,664 | Dave Heaster | |||||
| Maryland, District 1 | 35.9% | 337,760 | Wendy Rosen | |||||
| Wisconsin, District 2 | 36% | 390,898 | Chad Lee | |||||
| Mississippi, District 2 | 36.2% | 320,244 | Bill Marcy | |||||
| Nebraska, District 1 | 36.6% | 256,095 | Korey L. Reiman | |||||
| Kansas, District 3 | 36.9% | 293,762 | Joel Balam | |||||
| Illinois, District 3 | 37% | 246,391 | Richard Grabowski | |||||
| Georgia, District 11 | 37.1% | 287,321 | Patrick Thompson | |||||
| Illinois, District 5 | 37.1% | 270,377 | Dan Schmitt | |||||
| Illinois, District 15 | 37.2% | 299,937 | Angela Michael | |||||
| Maryland, District 3 | 37.3% | 319,859 | Eric Delano Knowles | |||||
| Texas, District 28 | 38.1% | 165,645 | William R. Hayward | |||||
| Pennsylvania, District 13 | 38.2% | 303,819 | Joe Rooney | |||||
| New Jersey, District 1 | 38.3% | 308,519 | Greg Horton | |||||
| Arizona, District 4 | 38.5% | 243,760 | Johnnie Robinson | |||||
| Connecticut, District 2 | 38.9% | 299,960 | Paul M Formica | |||||
| Michigan, District 12 | 39% | 319,223 | Cynthia Kallgren | |||||
| Michigan, District 10 | 39.1% | 328,612 | Chuck Stadler | |||||
| Kentucky, District 1 | 39.3% | 287,155 | Charles Kendall Hatchett | |||||
| California, District 11 | 39.5% | 287,879 | Virginia Fuller | |||||
| Oregon, District 2 | 39.5% | 332,255 | Joyce Segers | |||||
| Texas, District 26 | 39.6% | 258,723 | David Sanchez | |||||
| West Virginia, District 2 | 39.6% | 226,165 | Howard Swint | |||||
| New Jersey, District 12 | 39.7% | 274,398 | Eric Beck | |||||
| Tennessee, District 8 | 39.9% | 279,422 | Timothy Dixon | |||||
| Illinois, District 2 | 40.1% | 297,424 | Brian Woodworth | |||||
| Oklahoma, District 4 | 40.3% | 260,331 | Donna Marie Bebo | |||||
| Florida, District 14 | 40.5% | 280,601 | Evelio Otero Jr. | |||||
| California, District 18 | 41% | 301,934 | Dave Chapman | |||||
| Colorado, District 1 | 41.5% | 348,210 | Danny Stroud | |||||
| Maryland, District 5 | 41.7% | 343,820 | Anthony O'Donnell | |||||
| Ohio, District 3 | 41.9% | 295,647 | Chris Long | |||||
| Connecticut, District 1 | 42% | 297,061 | John Henry Decker | |||||
| California, District 2 | 42.5% | 317,526 | Daniel W. Roberts | |||||
| Alabama, District 6 | 42.5% | 308,102 | Penny H. Bailey | |||||
| California, District 43 | 42.5% | 200,894 | Bob Flores | |||||
| Florida, District 1 | 42.5% | 342,594 | James Bryan | |||||
| California, District 51 | 43% | 159,398 | Michael Crimmins | |||||
| Washington, District 9 | 43.2% | 268,139 | Jim Postma | |||||
| Georgia, District 13 | 43.5% | 281,538 | S. Malik | |||||
| Texas, District 12 | 44.2% | 247,712 | Dave Robinson | |||||
| Texas, District 36 | 44.2% | 233,832 | Max Martin | |||||
| Florida, District 5 | 44.5% | 269,153 | LeAnne Kolb | |||||
| Texas, District 1 | 44.5% | 249,658 | Shirley J. McKellar | |||||
| Wyoming, At-Large, District | 45.1% | 241,205 | Chris Henrichsen | |||||
| Louisiana, District 1 | 45.4% | 290,410 | Vinny Mendoza | |||||
| Ohio, District 13 | 45.5% | 323,612 | Marisha Agana | |||||
| Georgia, District 14 | 45.9% | 219,192 | Daniel Grant | |||||
| New York, District 26 | 46.2% | 304,961 | Michael Madigan | |||||
| California, District 23 | 46.4% | 216,003 | Terry Phillips | |||||
| California, District 19 | 46.5% | 221,613 | Robert Murray | |||||
| New York, District 16 | 46.5% | 270,320 | Joseph McLaughlin | |||||
| Texas, District 33 | 46.7% | 117,375 | Chuck Bradley | |||||
| Utah, District 1 | 46.8% | 245,528 | Donna M. McAleer | |||||
| Tennessee, District 7 | 47% | 257,306 | Credo Amouzouvik | |||||
| Georgia, District 4 | 47.1% | 283,902 | J. Chris Vaughn | |||||
| California, District 17 | 47.1% | 216,728 | Evelyn Li | |||||
| Missouri, District 8 | 47.4% | 300,391 | Jack Rushin | |||||
| Wisconsin, District 4 | 47.4% | 325,788 | Dan Sebring | |||||
| Illinois, District 1 | 47.6% | 320,843 | Donald Peloquin | |||||
| Massachusetts, District 5 | 47.9% | 364,201 | Tom Tierney | |||||
| California, District 29 | 48.1% | 150,281 | David Hernandez | |||||
| California, District 20 | 48.1% | 233,562 | Jeff Taylor | |||||
| Alabama, District 4 | 48.1% | 269,118 | Daniel H. Boman | |||||
| Illinois, District 18 | 48.3% | 329,631 | Steve Waterworth | |||||
| Nebraska, District 3 | 48.3% | 252,689 | Mark Sullivan | |||||
| Vermont, At-Large, District | 48.7% | 289,663 | Mark Donka | |||||
| Massachusetts, District 8 | 48.9% | 371,694 | Joe Selvaggi | |||||
| California, District 5 | 48.9% | 272,417 | Randy Loftin | |||||
| North Carolina, District 4 | 48.9% | 348,485 | Tim D'Annunzio | |||||
| New Jersey, District 9 | 48.9% | 220,133 | Shmuley Boteach | |||||
| Texas, District 4 | 48.9% | 250,343 | VaLinda Hathcox | |||||
| Minnesota, District 5 | 49.3% | 351,969 | Chris Fields | |||||
| Connecticut, District 3 | 49.4% | 291,299 | Wayne Winsley | |||||
| Ohio, District 9 | 50% | 298,164 | Samuel Wurzelbacher | |||||
| California, District 6 | 50.1% | 214,073 | Joseph McCray, Sr. | |||||
| Louisiana, District 4 | 50.6% | 249,531 | Randall Lord | |||||
| Tennessee, District 9 | 51.3% | 250,984 | George Flinn Jr. | |||||
| Alabama, District 7 | 51.8% | 306,558 | Don Chamberlain | |||||
| Georgia, District 9 | 52.4% | 252,153 | Jody Cooley | |||||
| Texas, District 18 | 52.4% | 194,932 | Sean Seibert | |||||
| North Carolina, District 1 | 52.5% | 338,066 | Pete DiLauro | |||||
| California, District 28 | 53% | 246,711 | Phil Jennerjahn | |||||
| New York, District 10 | 53.2% | 236,323 | Michael Chan | |||||
| Utah, District 3 | 53.2% | 259,547 | Soren D. Simonsen | |||||
| Tennessee, District 2 | 53.8% | 264,505 | Troy Goodale | |||||
| Pennsylvania, District 14 | 53.8% | 327,634 | Hans Lessmann | |||||
| Oregon, District 3 | 54.7% | 355,875 | Ronald Green | |||||
| New York, District 12 | 54.7% | 268,287 | Christopher Wight | |||||
| Oklahoma, District 3 | 55.3% | 268,003 | Timothy Ray Murray | |||||
| Maryland, District 7 | 55.7% | 323,818 | Frank Mirabile, Jr. | |||||
| Kentucky, District 5 | 55.8% | 250,853 | Kenneth Stepp | |||||
| Tennessee, District 1 | 56.2% | 239,672 | Alan Woodruff | |||||
| Maryland, District 4 | 56.4% | 311,512 | Faith Loudon | |||||
| Texas, District 8 | 57% | 251,052 | Neil Burns | |||||
| Colorado, District 5 | 57.6% | 307,231 | Jim Pirtle | |||||
| California, District 14 | 57.8% | 258,283 | Deborah Bacigalupi | |||||
| New York, District 14 | 57.9% | 170,995 | William Gibbons Jr. | |||||
| Hawaii, District 2 | 58.3% | 219,162 | Kawika "David" Crowley | |||||
| Texas, District 9 | 58.8% | 183,566 | Steve Mueller | |||||
| New Jersey, District 8 | 59.1% | 167,790 | Maria Karczewski | |||||
| North Carolina, District 12 | 59.3% | 310,908 | Jack Brosch | |||||
| Washington, District 7 | 59.3% | 374,580 | Ron Bemis | |||||
| Massachusetts, District 7 | 59.5% | 285,134 | Karla Romero | |||||
| Texas, District 30 | 59.8% | 217,014 | Travis Washington, Jr. | |||||
| Arkansas, District 3 | 59.9% | 245,660 | Rebekah Kennedy | |||||
| Texas, District 17 | 59.9% | 179,262 | Ben Easton | |||||
| Mississippi, District 3 | 60% | 293,322 | John Luke Pannell | |||||
| Texas, District 11 | 60.1% | 226,023 | Jim Riley | |||||
| Missouri, District 1 | 60.8% | 340,583 | Robyn Hamlin | |||||
| Virginia, District 3 | 62.8% | 318,936 | Dean Longo | |||||
| Louisiana, District 5 | 63.4% | 260,216 | Ron Ceasar | |||||
| Arizona, District 7 | 63.5% | 127,827 | Joe Cobb | |||||
| Illinois, District 4 | 66% | 160,505 | Hector Concepcion | |||||
| Michigan, District 14 | 66.6% | 328,792 | John Hauler | |||||
| New York, District 5 | 66.8% | 224,508 | Allan Jennings Jr. | |||||
| Florida, District 25 | 67.1% | 200,229 | VoteforEddie.Com | |||||
| Tennessee, District 6 | 67.5% | 241,241 | Pat Riley | |||||
| New York, District 9 | 67.8% | 238,957 | Daniel Cavanagh | |||||
| Georgia, District 5 | 68.8% | 277,665 | Howard Stopeck | |||||
| Louisiana, District 6 | 68.9% | 306,713 | Rufus Holt Craig,Jr | |||||
| Florida, District 21 | 68.9% | 284,400 | Cesear Henao | |||||
| Michigan, District 13 | 69.1% | 284,270 | Harry T. Sawicki | |||||
| New York, District 13 | 69.8% | 233,172 | Craig Schley | |||||
| Pennsylvania, District 1 | 69.9% | 277,102 | John Featherman | |||||
| Texas, District 19 | 70% | 192,063 | Richard Peterson | |||||
| California, District 12 | 70.2% | 298,187 | John Dennis | |||||
| New York, District 8 | 70.4% | 236,292 | Alan Bellone | |||||
| California, District 34 | 71.2% | 140,590 | Stephen Smith | |||||
| California, District 37 | 72.8% | 239,580 | Morgan Osborne | |||||
| California, District 13 | 73.6% | 288,582 | Marilyn M. Singleton | |||||
| Illinois, District 7 | 73.7% | 286,428 | Rita Zak | |||||
| Massachusetts, District 2 | 74.5% | 342,736 | All Others | |||||
| New York, District 7 | 74.7% | 178,825 | James Murray | |||||
| Florida, District 20 | 75.8% | 244,285 | Randall Terry | |||||
| Florida, District 4 | 76% | 315,470 | Gary Koniz | |||||
| Massachusetts, District 1 | 76.6% | 336,555 | All Others | |||||
| New Jersey, District 10 | 77% | 230,060 | Brian Kelemen | |||||
| Pennsylvania, District 2 | 79.9% | 356,386 | Robert Mansfield | |||||
| New York, District 15 | 83% | 178,645 | Frank Della Valle | |||||
| Texas, District 13 | 84.8% | 206,388 | John Robert Deek | |||||
| Texas, District 29 | 84.8% | 95,611 | James Stanczak | |||||
| South Carolina, District 6 | 88.1% | 233,615 | Nammu Y Muhammad | |||||
| South Carolina, District 2 | 92.5% | 203,718 | Write-In | |||||
| Alabama, District 1 | 95.7% | 200,676 | N/A | |||||
| Ohio, District 8 | 98.4% | 248,316 | James Condit Jr. | |||||
| Georgia, District 8 | 100% | 197,789 | Unopposed | |||||
| Georgia, District 10 | 100% | 211,065 | Unopposed | |||||
| Georgia, District 3 | 100% | 232,380 | Unopposed | |||||
| Kansas, District 1 | 100% | 211,337 | Unopposed | |||||
| Ohio, District 11 | 100% | 258,359 | Unopposed | |||||
| Texas, District 3 | 100% | 187,180 | Unopposed | |||||
| Florida, District 15 | 100% | 01 | Unopposed | |||||
| Florida, District 24 | 100% | 01 | Unopposed | |||||
| 1Note: In Florida, if a candidate runs unopposed, then there are no votes captured in the election. Thus, the total votes counted is 0. | ||||||||
Ballotpedia staff counted 43 total current incumbents who did not run for re-election in the 2012 elections.
| Name | Party | District |
|---|---|---|
| Barney Frank | Massachusetts, District 4 | |
| Bob Filner | California, District 51 | |
| Bob Turner | New York, District 9 | |
| Brad Miller | North Carolina, District 13 | |
| Charlie Gonzalez | Texas, District 20 | |
| Christopher S. Murphy | Connecticut, District 5 | |
| Connie Mack | Florida, District 14 | |
| Dale E. Kildee | Michigan, District 5 | |
| Dan Boren | Oklahoma, District 2 | |
| Dan Burton | Indiana, District 5 | |
| David Dreier | California, District 26 | |
| Dennis Cardoza | California, District 18 | |
| Denny Rehberg | U.S. House, Montana, At-large | |
| Ed Towns | New York, District 10 | |
| Elton Gallegly | California, District 24 | |
| Gary Ackerman | New York, District 5 | |
| Geoff Davis (a) | Kentucky, District 4 | |
| Heath Shuler | North Carolina, District 11 | |
| Jay Inslee (b) | Washington, District 1 | |
| Jeff Flake | Arizona, District 6 | |
| Jerry F. Costello | Illinois, District 12 | |
| Jerry Lewis | California, District 41 | |
| Joe Donnelly | Indiana, District 2 | |
| John Olver | Massachusetts, District 1 | |
| Lynn Woolsey | California, District 6 | |
| Martin Heinrich | New Mexico, District 1 | |
| Maurice Hinchey | New York, District 22 | |
| Mazie K. Hirono | Hawaii, District 2 | |
| Mike Pence | Indiana, District 6 | |
| Mike Ross | Arkansas, District 4 | |
| Norm Dicks | Washington, District 6 | |
| Rick Berg | North Dakota, At-Large, District | |
| Ron Paul | Texas, District 14 | |
| Shelley Berkley | Nevada, District 1 | |
| Steve Austria | Ohio, District 7 | |
| Steven C. LaTourette | Ohio, District 14 | |
| Sue Wilkins Myrick | North Carolina, District 9 | |
| Tammy Baldwin | Wisconsin, District 2 | |
| Thaddeus McCotter (c) | Michigan, District 11 | |
| Timothy V. Johnson | Illinois, District 15 | |
| W. Todd Akin | Missouri, District 2 | |
| Todd Russell Platts | U.S. House, Pennsylvania, District 19 | |
| Wally Herger | California, District 2 |
In 2012, a total of 13 incumbents were defeated in U.S. House primaries. They were:
| Name | Party | District | Year Assumed Office |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Quayle | Arizona, District 3 | 2011 | |
| Cliff Stearns | Florida, District 6 | 1989 | |
| Dennis J. Kucinich | Democratic | Ohio, District 10 | 1997 |
| Donald A. Manzullo | Illinois, District 16 | 1993 | |
| Hansen Clarke | Michigan, District 13 | 2011 | |
| Jason Altmire | Pennsylvania, District 4 | 2007 | |
| Jean Schmidt | Ohio, District 2 | 2005 | |
| John Sullivan | Oklahoma, District 1 | 2002 | |
| Russ Carnahan | Missouri, District 3 | 2005 | |
| Sandy Adams | Florida, District 24 | 2011 | |
| Silvestre Reyes | Texas, District 16 | 1997 | |
| Steve Rothman | New Jersey, District 9 | 1997 | |
| Tim Holden | Pennsylvania, District 17 | 1993 |
A total of 27 incumbents were defeated in the general election on November 6, 2012. Of those 27 incumbents, 10 were Democrats and 17 were Republicans.
| U.S. House incumbents defeated in 2012 general election | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Party | District | ||||||
| Allen B. West | Florida, District 22 | |||||||
| Ann Marie Buerkle | New York, District 25 | |||||||
| Ben Chandler | Kentucky, District 6 | |||||||
| Betty Sutton | Ohio, District 13 | |||||||
| Robert T. Schilling | Illinois, District 17 | |||||||
| Brian Bilbray | California, District 50 | |||||||
| Charles Bass | New Hampshire, District 2 | |||||||
| Chip Cravaack | Minnesota, District 8 | |||||||
| Dan Lungren | California, District 3 | |||||||
| David Rivera | Florida, District 25 | |||||||
| Francisco Canseco | Texas, District 23 | |||||||
| Frank Guinta | New Hampshire, District 1 | |||||||
| Howard Berman | California, District 28 | |||||||
| Jeff Landry | Louisiana, District 3 | |||||||
| Joe Baca | California, District 43 | |||||||
| Joe Walsh | Illinois, District 8 | |||||||
| Judy Biggert | Illinois, District 13 | |||||||
| Kathy Hochul | New York, District 26 | |||||||
| Larry Kissell | North Carolina, District 8 | |||||||
| Laura Richardson | California, District 37 | |||||||
| Leonard Boswell | Iowa, District 3 | |||||||
| Mark Critz | Pennsylvania, District 12 | |||||||
| Mary Bono Mack | California, District 45 | |||||||
| Nan Hayworth | New York, District 19 | |||||||
| Pete Stark | California, District 13 | |||||||
| Robert J. Dold | Illinois, District 10 | |||||||
| Roscoe Bartlett | Maryland, District 6 | |||||||
Across the country, media and experts published stories that chronicled the incumbents that were in danger of losing their bid for re-election. Some of those incumbents mentioned included:
The state primaries listed by month were as follows:
| This map displays the month of each Congressional primary in 2012 |
![]() |
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
More than 2,400 candidates filed to run for election to the U.S. House in 2012. For a list of all candidates who ran for office by state, see this page.
The two political organizations that support each party's U.S. House candidates - the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee - released lists targeting various districts across the nation. Here are the organizations' lists including success rates in the 2012 election.[24][25][26]
| Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Red to Blue list | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Endorsed Candidate | November 6 Results | |||
| Arizona's 1st District | Ann Kirkpatrick | ||||
| Arizona's 9th District | Kyrsten Sinema | ||||
| California's 7th District | Ami Bera | ||||
| California's 10th District | Jose Hernandez | ||||
| California's 26th District | Julia Brownley | ||||
| California's 36th District | Raul Ruiz | ||||
| California's 41st District | Mark Takano | ||||
| California's 47th District | Alan Lowenthal | ||||
| California's 52nd District | Scott Peters | ||||
| Colorado's 3rd District | Sal Pace | ||||
| Colorado's 6th District | Joe Miklosi | ||||
| Connecticut's 5th District | Elizabeth Esty | ||||
| Florida's 2nd District | Al Lawson | ||||
| Florida's 10th District | Val Demings | ||||
| Florida's 16th District | Keith Fitzgerald | ||||
| Florida's 18th District | Patrick Murphy | ||||
| Florida's 26th District | Joe Garcia | ||||
| Iowa's 4th District | Christie Vilsack | ||||
| Illinois' 8th District | Tammy Duckworth | ||||
| Illinois' 10th District | Brad Schneider | ||||
| Illinois' 11th District | Bill Foster | ||||
| Illinois' 12th District | William Enyart | ||||
| Illinois' 13th District | David Gill | ||||
| Illinois' 17th District | Cheri Bustos | ||||
| Indiana's 2nd District | Brendan Mullen | ||||
| Indiana's 8th District | Dave Crooks | ||||
| Maryland's 6th District | John Delaney | ||||
| Michigan's 1st District | Gary McDowell | ||||
| Minnesota's 2nd District | Mike Obermueller | ||||
| Minnesota's 6th District | Jim Graves | ||||
| Minnesota's 8th District | Rick Nolan | ||||
| Montana's at-large District | Kim Gillan | ||||
| Nevada's 3rd District | John Oceguera | ||||
| New Mexico's 1st District | Michelle Lujan Grisham | ||||
| New Hampshire's 1st District | Carol Shea-Porter | ||||
| New Hampshire's 2nd District | Annie Kuster | ||||
| New Jersey's 3rd District | Shelley Adler | ||||
| New York's 11th District | Mark Murphy | ||||
| New York's 18th District | Sean Maloney | ||||
| New York's 19th District | Julian Schreibman | ||||
| New York's 24th District | Dan Maffei | ||||
| North Carolina's 11th District | Hayden Rogers | ||||
| North Dakota's at-large District | Pam Gulleson | ||||
| Ohio's 6th District | Charlie Wilson | ||||
| Pennsylvania's 6th District | Manan Trivedi | ||||
| Pennsylvania's 7th District | George Badey | ||||
| Pennsylvania's 8th District | Kathryn Boockvar | ||||
| Tennessee's 4th District | Eric Stewart | ||||
| Texas' 14th District | Nick Lampson | ||||
| Texas' 23rd District | Pete Gallego | ||||
| Virginia's 2nd District | Paul Hirschbiel | ||||
| Washington's 1st District | Suzan DelBene | ||||
| Washington's 10th District | Denny Heck | ||||
| Wisconsin's 7th District | Pat Kreitlow | ||||
| Wisconsin's 8th District | Jamie Wall | ||||
| National Republican Congressional Committee Patriot Program | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Endorsed Candidate | November 6 Results | |||
| Arkansas' 1st District | Rick Crawford | ||||
| California's 7th District | Dan Lungren | ||||
| California's 10th District | Jeff Denham | ||||
| California's 31st District | Gary Miller | ||||
| California's 52nd District | Brian Bilbray | ||||
| Colorado's 3rd District | Scott Tipton | ||||
| Colorado's 6th District | Mike Coffman | ||||
| Florida's 18th District | Allen West | ||||
| Illinois' 8th District | Joe Walsh | ||||
| Illinois' 10th District | Robert J. Dold | ||||
| Illinois' 11th District | Judy Biggert | ||||
| Illinois' 17th District | Bobby Schilling | ||||
| Iowa's 3rd District | Tom Latham | ||||
| Maryland's 6th District | Roscoe Bartlett | ||||
| Michigan's 1st District | Dan Benishek | ||||
| Minnesota's 8th District | Chip Cravaack | ||||
| Nevada's 3rd District | Joe Heck | ||||
| New Hampshire's 1st District | Frank Guinta | ||||
| New Hampshire's 2nd District | Charlie Bass | ||||
| New Jersey's 3rd District | Jon Runyan | ||||
| New York's 11th District | Michael Grimm | ||||
| New York's 18th District | Nan Hayworth | ||||
| New York's 19th District | Chris Gibson | ||||
| New York's 24th District | Ann Marie Buerkle | ||||
| Ohio's 6th District | Bill Johnson | ||||
| Ohio's 7th District | Bob Gibbs | ||||
| Ohio's 16th District | Jim Renacci | ||||
| Pennsylvania's 7th District | Pat Meehan | ||||
| Pennsylvania's 8th District | Michael G. Fitzpatrick | ||||
| Texas' 23rd District | Francisco Canseco | ||||
| Virginia's 2nd District | Scott Rigell | ||||
| Wisconsin's 7th District | Sean Duffy | ||||
| Wisconsin's 8th District | Reid Ribble | ||||
| National Republican Congressional Committee Young Guns | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Endorsed Candidate | November 6 Results | |||
| Arizona's 1st District | Jonathan Paton | ||||
| Arizona's 2nd District | Martha McSally | ||||
| Arizona's 9th District | Vernon Parker | ||||
| California's 3rd District | Kim Dolbow Vann | ||||
| California's 9th District | Ricky Gill | ||||
| California's 21st District | David Valadao | ||||
| California's 24th District | Abel Maldonado | ||||
| California's 26th District | Tony Strickland | ||||
| California's 41st District | John Tavaglione | ||||
| California's 47th District | Gary DeLong | ||||
| Colorado's 7th District | Joe Coors, Jr. | ||||
| Connecticut's 4th District | Steve Obsitnik | ||||
| Connecticut's 5th District | Andrew Roraback | ||||
| Florida's 22nd District | Adam Hasner | ||||
| Georgia's 12th District | Lee Anderson | ||||
| Illinois' 12th District | Jason Plummer | ||||
| Illinois' 13th District | Rodney Davis | ||||
| Indiana's 2nd District | Jackie Walorski | ||||
| Iowa's 1st District | Ben Lange | ||||
| Iowa's 2nd District | John Archer | ||||
| Kentucky's 6th District | Andy Barr | ||||
| Maine's 2nd District | Kevin Raye | ||||
| Massachusetts' 6th District | Richard Tisei | ||||
| Michigan's 11th District | Kerry Bentivolio | ||||
| Nevada's 4th District | Danny Tarkanian | ||||
| New York's 1st District | Randy Altschuler | ||||
| New York's 21st District | Matt Doheny | ||||
| New York's 25th District | Maggie Brooks | ||||
| New York's 27th District | Chris Collins | ||||
| North Carolina's 7th District | David Rouzer | ||||
| North Carolina's 8th District | Richard Hudson | ||||
| North Carolina's 11th District | Mark Meadows | ||||
| North Dakota's at-large District | Kevin Cramer | ||||
| Ohio's 14th District | David Joyce | ||||
| Oklahoma's 2nd District | Markwayne Mullin | ||||
| Pennsylvania's 12th District | Keith Rothfus | ||||
| Rhode Island's 1st District | Brendan Doherty | ||||
| Texas' 14th District | Randy Weber | ||||
| Utah's 4th District | Mia Love | ||||
| Washington's 1st District | John Koster | ||||
| Washington's 6th District | Bill Driscoll | ||||
| West Virginia's 3rd District | Rick Snuffer | ||||
More than $1 billion was spent by candidates, political parties, and special interest groups during the 2012 election cycle.[27] Republican-leaning organizations spent $102 million on U.S. House races during the 2012 cycle while Democratic organizations spent $79 million.[28] According to the Sunlight Foundation, the DCCC spent $61,741,050 on the 2012 elections. Of those funds, 47.78 percent achieved the desired result, based on Sunlight Foundation analysis. The NRCC spent $64,653,292 on the 2012 elections. Of those funds, 31.88 percent achieved the desired result.[29]
After the first 15 months of the 2012 election cycle, candidates for the U.S. House had raised more than $566 million. That sum is $57 million more than the same point in 2010, and double the level at the same point in the election cycle as the 2002 races. Of that $566 million, Republicans raised $335 million while Democrats raised $221 million. The 2010 campaign set a fundraising record of $1.1 billion.[30] In April 2012, House Democrats reserved more than $32 million in ad time in districts across the country. The reservations by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee included 14 states, predominantly swing states. Headlining the spending was $8 million in Florida and $3 million in Ohio.[31] As of November 3, 2012, 26 races had seen more than $5 million in satellite spending. In 2010, there were only two such races.[32]
In September 2012, the NRCC raised $12.4 million and had $29.5 million cash on hand.[33]
In October 2012, the Campaign Finance Institute and the Brennan Center for Justice released reports detailing the high levels of independent expenditures in the election cycle. The Campaign Finance Institute report determined that between October 5-12, more than $1 million was spent by outside groups in 3 House races alone. Those races are:[34]
The report from the Brennan Center for Justice at The New York University School of Law was published on October 22nd and focuses on 25 House races rated most competitive by The Cook Political Report.
| List of 25 Toss Up Races from the Cook Political Report:[35] | |
|---|---|
|
Democratic Toss Ups:
Republican Toss Ups:
| |
Using the Federal Election Commission's October Quarterly campaign finance filings, the report examines the relative spending presence of non-candidate groups, candidates, and small donors in these races - "which will likely determine which party will control the House."[36] A number of trends were identified regarding the volume, potential weight of satellite spending and breakdown of campaign funding by party, including:
In October 2012, the House Majority PAC announced $8.4 million of ads in nine states targeting Republican candidates. The nine states were Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Virginia, Ohio, Connecticut, and Nevada.[37] The House Majority PAC also reported raising $5.9 million in September, a number which it hoped to double in October.[38]
On October 24, 2012, the DCCC borrowed $17 million to spend during the remainder of the 2012 elections. First reported in Politico, the money was intended to balance out the bombardment of GOP ads in the media.[39] According to a report in The Washington Post, House Republicans have been able to spend more money during the election cycle.[40]
On October 15, 2012, quarterly reports were submitted by campaigns to the Federal Election Commission. The political blog Daily Kos did an analysis of the fundraising figures, specifically looking at three areas:[41]
1) Races where challengers outraised an incumbent in the third quarter: 24 races qualified -- 17 Democratic challengers and seven Republican challengers outraised their incumbent opponent.
Of the 24 races, the challenger was victorious in 11 of them, 8 D, 3 R, with 2 races still to be called.
| Challengers who outraised their incumbent opponent in the third quarter | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Challenger | Incumbent | General election winner | |||||
| Name | Party | Funds in Q3 | Name | Party | Funds in Q3 | |||
| CA-07 | Ami Bera | $730,000 | Dan Lungren | $510,000 | ||||
| CA-09 | Ricky Gill | $727,000 | Jerry McNerney | $523,000 | ||||
| CA-10 | Jose Hernandez | $493,000 | Jeff Denham | $317,000 | ||||
| CA-36 | Raul Ruiz | $540,000 | Mary Bono Mack | $381,000 | ||||
| FL-10 | Val Demings | $503,000 | Daniel Webster | $207,000 | ||||
| FL-16 | Keith Fitzgerald | $468,000 | Vern Buchanan | $227,000 | ||||
| FL-26 | Joe Garcia | $431,000 | David Rivera | $122,000 | ||||
| IA-02 | John Archer (Iowa 2) | $417,000 | Dave Loebsack | $312,000 | ||||
| IL-08 | Tammy Duckworth | $1,508,000 | Joe Walsh | $254,000 | ||||
| IL-11 | Bill Foster | $642,000 | Judy Biggert | $624,000 | ||||
| KY-06 | Andy Barr | $804,000 | Ben Chandler | $504,000 | ||||
| MA-06 | Richard Tisei | $646,000 | John Tierney | $508,000 | ||||
| MD-06 | John Delaney | $399,000 | Roscoe Bartlett | $208,000 | ||||
| MN-08 | Rick Nolan | $484,000 | Chip Cravaack | $462,000 | ||||
| NC-08 | Richard Hudson | $512,000 | Larry Kissell | $220,000 | ||||
| NH-01 | Carol Shea-Porter | $675,000 | Frank Guinta | $363,000 | ||||
| NH-02 | Annie Kuster | $725,000 | Charlie Bass | $472,000 | ||||
| NY-11 | Mark Murphy | $323,000 | Mike Grimm | $249,000 | ||||
| NY-18 | Sean Maloney | $926,000 | Nan Hayworth | $573,000 | ||||
| NY-19 | Julian Schreibman | $537,000 | Chris Gibson | $388,000 | ||||
| PA-06 | Manan Trivedi | $436,000 | Jim Gerlach | $334,000 | ||||
| PA-12 | Keith Rothfus | $543,000 | Mark Critz | $501,000 | ||||
| UT-04 | Mia Love | $999,000 | Jim Matheson | $469,000 | ||||
| VA-02 | Paul Hirschbiel | $352,000 | Scott Rigell | $311,000 | ||||
2) Races where challengers had more cash-on-hand than the incumbent: 10 races qualified -- six Democratic challengers and four Republican challengers had more cash-on-hand than their incumbent opponent.
Of the 10 races, the challenger was victorious in 4 of them, 4 D, 0 R.
| Challengers who have more cash-on-hand than their incumbent opponent in the third quarter | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Challenger | Incumbent | General election winner | |||||
| Name | Party | COH in QTR 3 | Name | Party | COH in QTR 3 | |||
| CA-09 | Ricky Gill | $1,146,000 | Jerry McNerney | $1,038,000 | ||||
| IL-08 | Tammy Duckworth | $763,000 | Joe Walsh | $592,000 | ||||
| MD-06 | John Delaney | $249,000 | Roscoe Bartlett | $221,000 | ||||
| MI-01 | Gary McDowell | $604,000 | Dan Benishek | $571,000 | ||||
| NH-02 | Annie Kuster | $922,000 | Charlie Bass | $752,000 | ||||
| NY-18 | Sean Maloney | $855,000 | Nan Hayworth | $785,000 | ||||
| NY-25 | Maggie Brooks | $857,000 | Louise Slaughter | $411,000 | ||||
| OH-06 | Charlie Wilson | $440,000 | Bill Johnson | $388,000 | ||||
| RI-01 | Brendan Doherty | $510,000 | David Cicilline | $241,000 | ||||
| UT-04 | Mia Love | $457,000 | Jim Matheson | $307,000 | ||||
3) Races that were incumbent-vs-incumbent: Five incumbent-vs-incumbent races remain.
| Incumbents vs incumbent race totals in the third quarter | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Incumbent | Incumbent | General election winner | ||||||||
| Name | Party | Funds in Q3 | COH in QTR 3 | Name | Party | Funds in Q3 | COH in QTR 3 | ||||
| CA-30 | Howard Berman | $716,000 | $1,848,000 | Brad Sherman | $225,000 | $394,000 | |||||
| CA-44 | Janice Hahn | $179,000 | $132,000 | Laura Richardson | $7,000 | $68,000 | |||||
| IA-03 | Tom Latham | $487,000 | $1,510,000 | Leonard Boswell | $300,000 | $226,000 | |||||
| LA-03 | Charles Boustany | $602,000 | $1,268,000 | Jeff Landry | $404,000 | $755,000 | |||||
| OH-16 | Betty Sutton | $594,000 | $1,214,000 | Jim Renacci | $551,000 | $1,021,000 | |||||
As of July 14, 2012, the DCCC had raised $96,754,717 and spent $70,064,229, leaving $27,496,113 cash on hand.[42] As of October 2012, the DCCC had raised $53.3 million from small donations during the election cycle -- which was $15 million more than during the entire 2010 election.[43]
In October 2012, the NRCC launched 16 new ads for a total spending of more than $6 million. The purchases were in the following districts:[44]
The website RealClearPolitics listed 50 districts in order of likelihood to switch party on November 6. Twenty of the 50 U.S. House seats most likely to switch party control were held by Democrats. The remaining 30 belonged to Republicans. Those districts are listed in the table below.[45]
Of the 20 seats held by the Democrats, 9 flipped. Of the 30 seats held by the GOP, 17 flipped. Of the 50 seats listed, they became 28 D, 22 R.
| RealClearPolitics 50 Most likely US House Districts to Change Party | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | District | Party | Incumbent | November 6 Results | Switch? |
| 1 | North Carolina's 13th District | Open | Yes | ||
| 2 | Illinois' 8th District | Open | Yes | ||
| 3 | North Carolina's 11th District | Open | Yes | ||
| 4 | Maryland's 6th District | Roscoe Bartlett | Yes | ||
| 5 | North Carolina's 8th District | Larry Kissell | Yes | ||
| 6 | Arkansas's 4th District | Open | Yes | ||
| 7 | Florida's 22nd District | Open | Yes | ||
| 8 | Illinois' 17th District | Bobby Schilling | Yes | ||
| 9 | New York's 27th District | Kathy Hochul | Yes | ||
| 10 | New Hampshire's 2nd District | Charles Bass | Yes | ||
| 11 | Indiana's 2nd District | Open | Yes | ||
| 12 | Arizona's 1st District | Open | Yes | ||
| 13 | California's 52nd District | Brian Bilbray | Yes | ||
| 14 | Georgia's 12th District | John Barrow | No | ||
| 15 | New York's 24th District | Ann Marie Buerkle | Yes | ||
| 16 | North Carolina's 7th District | Mike McIntyre | No | ||
| 17 | Washington's 1st District | Open | No | ||
| 18 | Michigan's 11th District | Open | No | ||
| 19 | Illinois' 11th District | Judy Biggert | Yes | ||
| 20 | Illinois' 10th District | Robert J. Dold | Yes | ||
| 21 | Illinois' 12th District | Open | No | ||
| 22 | California's 26th District | Open | Yes | ||
| 23 | New Hampshire's 1st District | Frank Guinta | Yes | ||
| 24 | Iowa's 3rd District | Leonard Boswell | Yes | ||
| 25 | Ohio's 16th District | James B. Renacci | No | ||
| 26 | California's 7th District | Dan Lungren | Yes | ||
| 27 | Pennsylvania's 12th District | Mark Critz | Yes | ||
| 28 | Florida's 18th District | Allen West | Yes | ||
| 29 | Oklahoma's 2nd District | Open | Yes | ||
| 30 | Iowa's 4th District | Steve King | No | ||
| 31 | New York's 21st District | Bill Owens | No | ||
| 32 | California's 9th District | Jerry McNerney | No | ||
| 33 | Colorado's 6th District | Mike Coffman | No | ||
| 34 | New York's 18th District | Nan Hayworth | Yes | ||
| 35 | California's 24th District | Lois Capps | No | ||
| 36 | New York's 1st District | Tim Bishop | No | ||
| 37 | Illinois' 13th District | Open | No | ||
| 38 | Rhode Island's 1st District | David N. Cicilline | No | ||
| 39 | Wisconsin's 7th District | Sean Duffy | No | ||
| 40 | Nevada's 3rd District | Joe Heck | No | ||
| 41 | Massachusetts' 6th District | John Tierney | No | ||
| 42 | Utah's 4th District | Jim Matheson | No | ||
| 43 | Minnesota's 8th District | Chip Cravaack | Yes | ||
| 44 | Pennsylvania's 8th District | Michael G. Fitzpatrick | No | ||
| 45 | New York's 11th District | Michael Grimm | No | ||
| 46 | Colorado's 3rd District | Scott Tipton | No | ||
| 47 | California's 10th District | Jeff Denham | No | ||
| 48 | Florida's 26th District | David Rivera | Yes | ||
| 49 | Virginia's 2nd District | Scott Rigell | No | ||
| 50 | New Jersey's 3rd District | Jon Runyan | No | ||
The New York Times rated the U.S. House races. There were five possible designations:
Solid Democratic
Lean Democratic
Tossup
Lean Republican
Solid Republican
| New York Times Political Report Race Rating -- U.S. House Competitive Districts | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | Solid D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean R | Solid R | Total Seats in Play | ||||
| July 25, 2012[46] | 156 | 23 | 25 | 32 | 199 | 80 | ||||
| Note: A total of 218 seats are needed for the majority | ||||||||||
Each month the Cook Political Report released race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. The races detailed below were only those considered competitive. There were six possible designations.[47]
|
Likely Democratic
|
R Tossup
|
| Cook Political Report Race Rating -- U.S. House Competitive Districts | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | Likely D | Lean D | D Tossup | R Tossup | Lean R | Likely R | Total D | Total R | Total Competitive races | |
| October 30, 2012[48] | 14 | 12 | 9 | 18 | 15 | 18 | 35 | 51 | 86 | |
| October 25, 2012[49] | 14 | 13 | 8 | 18 | 15 | 18 | 35 | 51 | 86 | |
| October 18, 2012[50] | 14 | 12 | 8 | 19 | 14 | 19 | 34 | 52 | 86 | |
| October 11, 2012[51] | 12 | 15 | 7 | 18 | 16 | 17 | 34 | 51 | 85 | |
| October 5, 2012[52] | 12 | 15 | 7 | 18 | 16 | 18 | 34 | 52 | 86 | |
| September 27, 2012[53] | 11 | 15 | 7 | 17 | 16 | 22 | 33 | 55 | 88 | |
| September 20, 2012[54] | 10 | 16 | 7 | 17 | 17 | 21 | 33 | 55 | 88 | |
| September 13, 2012[55] | 13 | 13 | 8 | 18 | 17 | 22 | 34 | 57 | 91 | |
| September 6, 2012[56] | 13 | 13 | 8 | 17 | 18 | 21 | 34 | 56 | 90 | |
| August 20, 2012[57] | 14 | 12 | 8 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 34 | 57 | 91 | |
| August 15, 2012[58] | 13 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 19 | 22 | 34 | 57 | 91 | |
| August 12, 2012[59] | 13 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 19 | 22 | 34 | 57 | 91 | |
| August 2, 2012[60] | 13 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 19 | 22 | 34 | 57 | 91 | |
| July 26, 2012[61] | 13 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 19 | 22 | 34 | 57 | 91 | |
| July 12, 2012[62] | 13 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 18 | 23 | 34 | 57 | 91 | |
| June 28, 2012[63] | 14 | 11 | 9 | 15 | 18 | 24 | 34 | 57 | 91 | |
| June 14, 2012[64] | 14 | 11 | 9 | 15 | 18 | 24 | 34 | 57 | 91 | |
| June 7, 2012[65] | 14 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 18 | 24 | 35 | 57 | 92 | |
| May 31, 2012[66] | 14 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 18 | 24 | 35 | 58 | 93 | |
| May 24,2012[67] | 14 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 18 | 24 | 36 | 57 | 93 | |
| May 17, 2012[68] | 14 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 19 | 26 | 36 | 59 | 95 | |
| May 3,2012[69] | 15 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 19 | 26 | 36 | 59 | 95 | |
| April 26, 2012[70] | 18 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 18 | 27 | 39 | 59 | 98 | |
| April 19, 2012[71] | 17 | 14 | 8 | 14 | 19 | 28 | 39 | 61 | 100 | |
| April 12, 2012[72] | 17 | 14 | 8 | 14 | 19 | 27 | 39 | 60 | 99 | |
| April 5, 2012[73] | 18 | 15 | 7 | 14 | 19 | 29 | 40 | 62 | 102 | |
| March 23, 2012[74] | 18 | 15 | 7 | 14 | 19 | 29 | 40 | 62 | 102 | |
| March 15, 2012[75] | 18 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 20 | 28 | 39 | 61 | 100 | |
| March 8, 2012[76] | 18 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 21 | 28 | 39 | 62 | 101 | |
| March 6, 2012[77] | 18 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 21 | 26 | 39 | 60 | 99 | |
| March 5, 2012[78] | 19 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 19 | 27 | 39 | 60 | 99 | |
Each month the Crystal Ball released race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There were seven possible designations:[79]
|
Solid Democratic
|
Tossup |
Lean Republican
|
| Sabato's Crystal Ball Race Rating -- U.S. House | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | Solid D | Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean R | Likely R | Solid R |
| June 6, 2012[80] | 152 | 14 | 19 | 15 | 23 | 19 | 193 |
| May 9, 2012[81] | 151 | 16 | 21 | 13 | 23 | 21 | 190 |
| April 2, 2012[82] | 149 | 19 | 19 | 13 | 25 | 25 | 185 |
The Center for Voting and Democracy (Fairvote) released its projections in October 2012. According to the organization, there were 177 projected Republican winners, 156 projected Democratic winners, and 102 "no-projection" districts. Additionally:[83][84]
According to the study, Republicans were "far better positioned than Democrats to win control of the House."[85]
The 2012 elections were the first using new maps drawn as a result of the 2010 Census. The breakdown of states that won and lost new seats in the Congressional reapportionment is as follows:[86]
| States that Added Congressional Seats after 2010 Census | ||
|---|---|---|
| State | Before 2010 census | After 2010 census[87] |
| Arizona | 8 | 9 (+1) |
| Florida | 25 | 27 (+2) |
| Georgia | 13 | 14 (+1) |
| Nevada | 3 | 4 (+1) |
| South Carolina | 6 | 7 (+1) |
| Texas | 32 | 36 (+4) |
| Utah | 3 | 4 (+1) |
| Washington | 9 | 10 (+1) |
| States that Lost Congressional Seats after 2010 Census | ||
|---|---|---|
| State | Before 2010 census | After 2010 census[88] |
| Illinois | 19 | 18 (-1) |
| Iowa | 5 | 4 (-1) |
| Louisiana | 7 | 6 (-1) |
| Massachusetts | 10 | 9 (-1) |
| Michigan | 15 | 14 (-1) |
| Missouri | 9 | 8 (-1) |
| New Jersey | 13 | 12 (-1) |
| New York | 29 | 27 (-2) |
| Ohio | 18 | 16 (-2) |
| Pennsylvania | 19 | 18 (-1) |
However, while population gains have generally taken place in Republican states, projections show the bulk of the increases are from minorities -- particularly in states like Arizona, Florida and Texas.[89] Minorities generally lean Democratic in elections.[90] According to an estimate by Salon.com, Republicans could have gained 15 new seats nationwide if they chose to impose "brutal" maps.[10]
Of the top 10 Congressional districts that needed to lose population -- meaning they were the fastest growing districts over the past decade in the country -- all of them were won by a Republican in the 2010 election. That implied, that Republicans would have an easier time spreading their voters across more districts while still managing to try and maintain a safe majority in those overly-populated districts. The most-populated district is the 3rd Congressional seat in Nevada, which has a population of 1,002,482. The least-populated district is the 1st Congressional seat in Nebraska, with 611,333 residents.[91]
According to Mike Shields, the National Republican Congressional Committee’s political director, redistricting "has taken a lot of seats off the table for Democrats."[92]
In 2010, the 10 closest U.S. House races were won by the following House members:[93]
A report by the Brennan Center for Justice indicated that California's redistricting likely cost the Democrats a chance at taking control of the U.S. House.[94] According to the report, Democrats were able to draw 44 congressional seats while Republican legislatures were responsible for 173 seats.[95]
Throughout the 112th Congress, public sentiment was critical of the performance of elected officials. On February 8, 2012, Gallup released a poll in which a record-low of 10 percent of Americans approved of Congress. Viewpoints on Democrats and Republicans were equally negative.[96] "This Congress has been judged by almost everybody as the least productive, most confrontational Congress in a very, very long period of time," said House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Maryland).[97]
| Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job? | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Approve | Disapprove | No opinion | Margin of error | Sample size | ||||||||||||||
| Gallup News Service (September 6-9, 2012) | 13% | 83% | 4% | +/-4 | 1,017 | ||||||||||||||
| Gallup News Service (August 9-12, 2012) | 10% | 83% | 7% | +/-4 | 1,012 | ||||||||||||||
| Gallup News Service (March 8-11, 2012) | 12% | 82% | 6% | +/-4 | 1,024 | ||||||||||||||
| Gallup News Service (February 2-5, 2012) | 10% | 86% | 4% | +/-4 | 1,029 | ||||||||||||||
| Gallup News Service (January 5-8, 2012) | 13% | 81% | 6% | +/-4 | 1,011 | ||||||||||||||
| Gallup News Service (December 15-18, 2011) | 11% | 86% | 3% | +/-4 | 1,019 | ||||||||||||||
| Gallup News Service (November 3-6, 2011) | 13% | 82% | 5% | +/-4 | 1,012 | ||||||||||||||
| AVERAGES | 11.71% | 83.29% | 5% | +/-4 | 1,017.71 | ||||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. | |||||||||||||||||||
Each week, RealClearPolitics releases a table with an aggregate of the generic congressional vote from a variety of polling organizations, including Rasmussen Reports, Politico, NPR, USA Today/Gallup and Bloomberg.[98]
| Generic Congressional Ballot -- Average from RealClearPolitics | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Democratic | Republican | |||||||||||||||||
| 4/1/12 | 43.6% | 44.8% | |||||||||||||||||
| 5/1/12 | 41.3% | 42.5% | |||||||||||||||||
| 6/1/12 | 44.2% | 44.3% | |||||||||||||||||
| 7/1/12 | 44.3% | 43% | |||||||||||||||||
| 8/1/12 | 41.8% | 43% | |||||||||||||||||
| 9/1/12 | 44.2% | 44% | |||||||||||||||||
| 10/1/12 | 44% | 45% | |||||||||||||||||
| AVERAGES | 43.34% | 43.8% | |||||||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. | |||||||||||||||||||
<ref> tag; name "salon" defined multiple times with different content
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Categories: [Congress elections, 2012]