Heart Of The Primaries, Republicans-Issue 16 (April 30, 2018)

Issue No. 16

This week: Lamborn is off the Colorado ballot, but Robinson is back on, Democratic pasts haunt Republican Senate candidates, and Molinaro closes in on New York’s gubernatorial nomination. Click here to follow developments on the Democratic side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!

Upcoming filing deadlines: May 4 (Florida), May 18 (Washington)
Passed filing deadlines: 36
Upcoming elections: May 8 (Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,211 Democrats, 952 Republicans

Republican pundits on the news[edit]

Where do Republican and conservative pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.

“The race for House Speaker within the GOP caucus is an opportunity to stop the chicanery and meld the GOP into a coherent and effective caucus that doesn’t abandon or ridicule the priorities of its voters but rather fights for them. The next Republican Speaker needs to stop blaming conservatives groups in Congress like the Freedom Caucus for refusing to abandon voter priorities.” - Dan Palmer, The Hill, April 20, 2018

“I noted during the frustrations of the John Boehner years that the easiest thing in the world to do in a legislature is complain about your leaders negotiations and insist that if you had been in charge, you would have gotten a better deal. Passing big, consequential pieces of legislation is hard. Coalitions are difficult to keep together.” - Jim Geraghty, National Review, April 11, 2018

RedState layoffs[edit]

The conservative website RedState laid off multiple editors and writers on Friday. Several media outlets have reported that the writers who were targeted had criticized President Trump. Erick Erickson, a RedState founder who is no longer with the site, said money and politics might be at play: "My understanding from the writers is that there were two contracts, one more expensive than the other. Most of those on the expensive contracts were tossed, though some very good ones will stay. Of those under the cheaper contracts, it seems the dividing line was loyalty to the President."

U.S. Congress[edit]

U.S. House:

• Democratic seats heading into November: 193
• Republican seats heading into November: 236
  • Open seats: 54
  • Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 17
• Open seats currently held by a Republican: 37
• Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
• Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12

U.S. Senate:

• Democratic seats heading into November: 49*
• Republican seats heading into November: 51
  • Open seats: 3
  • Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
• Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
• Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
• Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10

Lamborn blocked from CO-05 Republican primary ballot[edit]

Incumbent Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-Colo.) was removed from the Republican primary ballot in Colorado’s 5th Congressional District Monday after the Colorado Supreme Court invalidated the signatures his campaign gathered because some of his petition circulators were not state residents.

Lamborn filed a lawsuit Wednesday arguing the petitioner residency requirement violates the First Amendment right of association. Lamborn is seeking an injunction that would require his name to appear on the June 26 primary ballot.

Four other Republicans are running for the seat, including Rand Paul-backed state Sen. Owen Hill (R).

Braun and Nicholson defend Democratic voting records in Indiana and Wisconsin Senate races[edit]

Rep. Luke Messer (R-Ind.) released a new ad in the Indiana Senate race criticizing state Rep. Mike Braun (R) for voting in Democratic primaries for more than a decade.

According to Dubois County records, Braun voted in Democratic primaries from 1996 through 2008. He voted in a Republican primary in 2012 and ran as a Republican for the state Legislature in 2014.

Braun spokesman Josh Kelley said Dubois County was solidly Democratic at the time and Braun voted “in competitive local primaries where it would have the greatest impact, while voting solidly Republican in general elections.”

Party loyalty is also an issue in the Wisconsin Senate race, where Marine Corps veteran Kevin Nicholson (R) and his allies defended Nicholson’s stint as president of the College Democrats of America.

Restoration PAC released an ad comparing Nicholson to President Ronald Reagan (R), saying “reality turned Kevin Nicholson into a conservative.”

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Governors[edit]

Governors: key information
Open seats	17
Open seats held by a Democrat	4
Open seats held by a Republican	13
States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton	8
States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump	1

South Carolina gubernatorial candidates tout Trump support in new ads[edit]

Supporters of South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster (R) and challenger Catherine Templeton (R) launched new ads emphasizing the candidates' connections to President Trump.

The McMaster campaign launched its first ad of the race Thursday, featuring a clip of the president's endorsement of McMaster. An earlier Citizens for a Working America ad supporting McMaster also mentioned the Trump endorsement.

The American Future Fund, which backs Catherine Templeton (R), emphasized reports Trump had considered her for Secretary of Labor in an ad it released Wednesday.

Five candidates are running in the June 12 primary, which is open to all voters. If no candidate wins a majority, the top two candidates advance to a June 26 runoff.

South Carolina Republicans party profile

• Presidential elections carried since 1980: 10/10
• Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 7/10
• Seats held in U.S. Senate: 2/2
• Seats held in U.S House of Representatives: 6/7
• Statewide partisan elected offices held: 9/9
• Seats held in state Senate: 28/46
• Seats held in state House: 79/124

Molinaro secures support of county committees, clearing path to nomination[edit]

Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro (R) secured the endorsement of seven additional county committees Wednesday, putting him one step closer to the Republican gubernatorial nomination.

Six of the seven county committees had previously endorsed his opponent, state Sen. John DeFrancisco (R), who said Wednesday he would no longer actively campaign.

With the endorsements, Molinaro is projected to have more than 75 percent of delegate votes at the party convention.

Candidates must get at least 25 percent of the vote at the party's statewide convention in order to appear on the primary ballot without submitting nominating petitions. Convention delegates typically vote for the candidate endorsed by their county party.

Three candidates are seeking the GOP nomination. The Sept. 13 primary is open to registered Republicans only.

New York Republicans party profile

• Presidential elections carried since 1980: 2/10
• Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 3/10
• Seats held in U.S. Senate: 0/2
• Seats held in U.S House of Representatives: 9/27
• Statewide partisan elected offices held: 0/4
• Seats held in state Senate: 31/63
• Seats held in state Assembly: 41/150

Robinson restored to Colorado primary ballot[edit]

Businessman Doug Robinson (R) was restored to the Republican gubernatorial primary ballot Wednesday after a Denver judge accepted a settlement between the Robinson campaign and the secretary of state's office.

The secretary of state had declared Robinson was 22 signatures short of the 1,500 required in the state's 2nd Congressional District and would not qualify for the ballot.

Robinson sued, alleging the secretary's office rejected some valid signatures. The two sides agreed that 40 selected signatures from the 2nd District had been improperly removed.

Candidates seeking a major-party nomination for statewide office in Colorado must either submit 1,500 signatures from registered party members in each of the state's seven congressional districts or receive at least 30 percent of the vote at the statewide party assembly.

Robinson will appear alongside former Parker Mayor Greg Lopez (R), former state Rep. Victor Mitchell (R), and state Treasurer Walker Stapleton (R) in the June 26 primary, which is open to registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters.

Colorado Republicans party profile:

• Presidential elections carried since 1980: 6/10
• Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 2/10
• Seats held in U.S. Senate: 1/2
• Seats held in U.S. House: 4/7
• Statewide partisan elected offices held: 3/5
• Seats held in state Senate: 18/35
• Seats held in state House: 29/65

Legislatures[edit]

Republicans control 32 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Over the eight years of the Obama presidency, Republicans picked up 948 seats in state legislatures. This chart tracks the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Republicans in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.

Takeaways: In Alabama*, Arkansas, California***, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland*, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico**, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina**, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Republican candidates running has increased 11.4 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 51.7 percent. The number of Republican incumbents facing challenges has increased 13.1 percent and the number of Republican primaries has increased 17.1 percent.

*Did not hold state legislative elections in 2016
**Not holding state Senate elections in 2018
***Holds top-two primaries instead of Democratic and Republican primaries

Hardister challenged over sales tax support[edit]

North Carolina House Majority Whip Jon Hardister’s support for an expanded sales tax has earned him a primary challenge from former state Sen. James McDaniel.

Since 2013, the state has reduced income and corporate rates, but expanded its sales tax to services to partially offset lost revenue.

McDaniel says the service tax penalizes people who need emergency home repair services like plumbing and the state could get by without the extra money.

Hardister says the tax changes improved North Carolina’s business climate and fiscal solvency. Hardister says he eventually wants to eliminate state income taxes and only tax consumption and services.

McDaniel acknowledges that Republicans almost universally supported the tax changes, but said the Legislature needs someone to stand up for smaller budgets and lower taxes.

Indiana primaries focus on social issues[edit]

We’ve written about a contentious primary battle between socially conservative Sen. Mike Delph and his business-backed challenger, Corrie Meyer, in Indiana Senate District 29.

Here are more Indiana Republican primaries to watch May 8.

• Senate District 11: State Sen. Joe Zakas is facing a challenge from businesswoman Linda Rogers. Indiana Right to Life backs Zakas, but the Indiana Chamber of Commerce supports Rogers.
• Senate District 19: The Indiana Religious Freedom Alliance is supporting Eric Orr’s challenge of incumbent Travis Holdman, who was endorsed by the Indiana Chamber.
• House District 52: Anti-abortion groups are on opposing sides in state Rep. Ben Smaltz’s primary after he opposed a bill banning abortions entirely, but worked to pass other anti-abortion legislation. Hoosiers Right to Life supports his challenger, William Carlin. Indiana Right to Life backs Smaltz.

FirstEnergy Corp. backs Householder for Ohio House speaker[edit]

The political action committee of Akron-based utility company FirstEnergy Corp. donated nearly $150,000 to state Rep. Larry Householder and his allies in the May 8 Ohio state House GOP primaries.

Householder previously supported legislation allowing the company’s subsidiaries to charge customers extra to subsidize operations at two nuclear power plants. The plants are now set to close by 2021.

Householder and his allies are competing with Finance Committee Chairman Ryan Smith and his supporters for control of the House, and the speakership, in 2019.

Candidate survey reply of the week[edit]

Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.

Do you believe that it’s beneficial for representatives to have previous experience in government or politics?

"We elect, time and again, career politicians who promise to change Washington and we get the same results, the same failed policies as before. We need leaders that will stand up for the American people and have real world experiences. Leaders that know the ups and downs in life and have built things, created jobs and solved problems."

- Jonathan Lamb, candidate for Indiana's 6th Congressional District

Read all of Jonathan Lamb's responses →

Power players[edit]

A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.

Mountain Families PAC[edit]

A $700,000 ad campaign from the recently formed Mountain Families PAC highlighting coal mining executive Don Blankenship’s year-long stint in prison has raised questions about the PAC’s links to national Republicans, and whether Sen. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) is "meddling” in the West Virginia U.S. Senate race.

The PAC’s ads call Blankenship, who was jailed after a 2010 explosion at his Upper Big Branch Mine, a “convicted criminal” who would not improve Washington, D.C.

The ads appeared as the self-funding Blankenship was gaining ground in the race, having spent more than $1 million on ads.

The national Republican Party is distancing itself from the PAC. But FEC disclosures show firms that have worked with the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), a McConnell-associated PAC, oversaw the anti-Blankenship ads.

Mountain Families is registered at an address that was also used for a fundraising account of former Sen. Luther Strange. The SLF aided Strange in his unsuccessful 2017 Senate bid.

At an event in the state earlier this month promoting his tax reform package, President Trump appeared on stage with two of Blankenship’s opponents, Rep. Evan Jenkins and state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey. Blankenship did not attend.

What we’re reading[edit]

“Democrats try to win back labor in order to win back the House” (Washington Examiner) “The Republicans’ Big Senate Mess” (The New York Times) “GOP Concerns Mount in Arizona Despite 8th District Win” (Real Clear Politics) “Here are four ways Republicans can guarantee they lose Congress in November” (Fox News)