Arizona S 8Th Congressional District Special Election, 2018

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Arizona's 8th Congressional District special
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: January 10, 2018
Primary: February 27, 2018
General: April 24, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Vacant
Election winner:
Debbie Lesko (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Arizona
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Likely Republican
Inside Elections: Likely Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 8th (special)
Arizona elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Former state Sen. Debbie Lesko (R) defeated physician Hiral Tipirneni (D) in the April 24, 2018 special election to fill the seat left vacant by incumbent Rep. Trent Franks (R-Ariz.).[1]

The district is Republican-leaning, having backed the Republican presidential nominee by 20 points or more in the three prior election cycles.

After Democrat Conor Lamb's victory in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District special election in March, the National Republican Congressional Committee, Congressional Leadership Fund, and Republican National Committee each launched six-figure media or voter outreach campaigns to support Lesko’s bid. Republican groups spent nearly $900,000 in total a week before the election.[2]

Unlike two polls in March and April that found Lesko up by double digits, an Emerson College poll released on April 16, 2018, showed a tighter race. Tipirneni led Lesko within the margin of error, 46 percent to 45 percent.[3]

Tipirneni also outraised Lesko between February 8 and April 4, 2018, with $434,000 in contributions to Lesko's $367,000.[4]

Voters who prioritized education or healthcare supported Tipirneni by more than 40 percentage points, according to the Emerson College poll. Lesko was the favorite by a margin of nearly 70 points for voters concerned most with immigration.[3]

This page covered the general election.

  • Click here to find election results for the Democratic Party Democratic Party primary election.
  • Click here to find election results for the Republican Party Republican Party primary election.

Candidates and election results[edit]

Special election[edit]

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 Special Election, 2018
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.png Debbie Lesko 52.61% 91,390
     Democratic Hiral Tipirneni 47.39% 82,318
Total Votes (100% reporting (143 of 143 precincts)) 173,708
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

Democratic primary election[edit]

Hiral Tipirneni defeated Brianna Westbrook in the Democratic primary for Arizona’s 8th Congressional District.[5]

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 Democratic Primary, 2018
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.png Hiral Tipirneni 59.62% 21,703
Brianna Westbrook 40.38% 14,701
Total Votes (100% reporting (143 of 143 precincts)) 36,404
Source: The New York Times

Republican primary election[edit]

Debbie Lesko defeated 11 other candidates in the Republican primary for Arizona’s 8th Congressional District with 36 percent support.[5]

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 Republican Primary, 2018
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.png Debbie Lesko 35.77% 25,508
Phil Lovas 23.88% 17,031
Steve B. Montenegro 23.82% 16,987
Bob Stump 5.37% 3,832
Clair Van Steenwyk 2.37% 1,692
Chris Sylvester 1.92% 1,370
David Lien 1.77% 1,261
Richard Mack 1.42% 1,014
Mark Yates 1.12% 799
Chad Allen 1.05% 747
Brenden Dilley 1.03% 734
Stephen Dolgos 0.48% 345
Total Votes (100% reporting (143 of 143 precincts)) 71,320
Source: The New York Times

Candidate profiles[edit]

Democratic Party Hiral Tipirneni (D)[edit]

Hiral.tipirneni.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Tipirneni has worked as an emergency room physician and cancer research advocate for more than 20 years. She also served on the board of directors of the Maricopa Health Foundation, which supports the county’s public healthcare delivery system, and as the chief resident of the University of Michigan’s Emergency Medicine program.[6]

"I’m not a career politician, but I’ve successfully worked with people from all walks of life and I promise to bring that team-oriented approach to working with Republicans and Democrats alike to get the results we need,” she said when she entered the race.[7]

Her campaign website listed expanding Medicaid, simplifying the tax code, improving care for veterans, and greater investment in public schools as some of her policy priorities.[6]

Republican Party Debbie Lesko (R)[edit]

Debbie Lesko.gif

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Lesko is a former member of the Arizona State Senate, representing District 21 from 2015 to 2018. She served as president pro tempore from 2017 to 2018, before resigning her seat on January 8, 2018, to focus on her U.S. House campaign. She also served in the Arizona House of Representatives, representing District 21 from 2009 to 2015. She is Arizona state chairman for ALEC (American Legislative Exchange Council).[8][9]

"I have a track record of taking on big, important issues that other people won't take on and getting them done. None of the other candidates can say they have that track record," she said when announcing her candidacy.[10] She was endorsed by the Susan B. Anthony List.

Investing in national security initiatives, including a missile defense system, protecting border security through some physical barriers and improved technology, and simplifying the tax code were listed as policy priorities on her campaign website.[11]

Analysis of election outcome[edit]

Analysis of Lesko's win focused on whether her single-digit margin of victory in a Republican stronghold had implications for other races in 2018. Political commentators discussed the messaging of each candidate, the demographics of the region, and how to interpret Lesko's victory in the context of other congressional special elections.

Campaign strategy[edit]

  • Jack Crowe, National Review: "Lesko, 59, ran as a staunch supporter of the president’s agenda and utilized the contributions from national organizations to launch attack ads casting her opponent as Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s potential lackey, despite Tipirneni’s efforts to present as a moderate.
Tiperneni’s ability to counter Lesko’s messaging with her own outside support collapsed after a local tv station revealed she had not practiced medicine since 2007 and had settled a malpractice suit.
In addition to generous spending by the Republican National Committee and other groups, Lesko was pushed over the line by robocalls from Trump, House Speaker Paul Ryan and Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy."[12]
  • Jonathan Martin, The New York Times: "Ms. Tipirneni, 50, found energetic support among some women in the district who were uneasy about Mr. Trump and had been roused to get active in politics. As Representative Conor Lamb of Pennsylvania did in a special election last month, she offered herself as a moderate who would not support Ms. Pelosi for House speaker.
But unlike Mr. Lamb’s Pittsburgh-area seat — which includes an array of vote-rich, upscale suburbs — the Arizona district is full of AARP-eligible snowbirds, reliably Republican Mormons and military families who work at nearby Luke Air Force Base. And this race was a head-to-head contest — there was no Libertarian on the ballot, as in Pennsylvania, who could have allowed Ms. Tipirneni to eke out a win had it proved closer.
This was not a district that was on either party’s list of seats that will determine control of the House. But the steps conservatives took to secure victory for a former officeholder illustrate just how much the anti-Trump energy on the left is putting Republicans on the defensive across the country."[13]
  • Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight: "One might describe Arizona’s 8th Congressional District as … nondescript. Covering portions of Phoenix’s northern and western suburbs, including the Arizona Cardinals’ home stadium, the district isn’t all that geographically or demographically distinct, containing a largely older, largely white population of professionals and retirees. The area has traditionally been extremely Republican, having voted for John McCain by 22 points in 2008, Mitt Romney by 25 points in 2012, and President Trump by 21 points in 2016. It has a growing number of Hispanics, but Hispanics make up a considerably smaller share of the voting population than of its population overall.
Nor was there anything especially unusual about the candidates who competed in the special election there on Tuesday — Republican Debbie Lesko, a state senator, and Democrat Hiral Tipirneni, a doctor. Each won their respective primaries by solid-but-not-overwhelming margins, and each raised about the same amount of money for their general election campaigns. They’re competent, uncontroversial candidates who are representative of the sorts of people who will be nominated throughout the country in the midterms this November. ...
The silver lining for Republicans isn’t that Lesko won. If Republicans are winning by only 5 points in this sort of extremely red district in November, dozens of more competitive seats will flop to Democrats — more than enough for them to take the House. Rather, the 'good' news is that Republicans have endured lots of this sort of bad news already."[14]

Implications for other 2018 elections[edit]

  • David Byler, The Weekly Standard: "The right response to this data is not to try to find some campaign storyline or idiosyncratic feature of Arizona that explains away the GOP underperformance. If you look hard enough at any special election, you’ll find a reason to disregard the results. The right approach to is throw the result into an average. And in Trump Era House, Senate and state legislative special elections Republican candidates have underperformed Trump by about 12 points on average. If you confine that to just House special elections and add in the Arizona result (and drop the California special where two Democrats moved on to the runoff), you see a roughly 11 point GOP underperformance. ...
But the bottom line in this special election is the same as in other recent special elections. President Trump is unpopular, and he’s been a drag on down-ballot Republicans in many important Trump Era special elections. Lesko managed to hold onto this seat, but Trump’s unpopularity is a big threat to the Republican House majority."[15]
  • Dan Eberhart, a Republican donor from Arizona: "These election results are a wake up call to Republicans in Arizona and nationally. ... Winning the Arizona 8th by such a small margin portends very little margin of error for Gov. Doug Ducey and the eventual Arizona Republican Senate nominee this fall."[16]
  • Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.): "It’s a warning shot. Anything below a 10-point margin is not good news.”[13]
  • Rodd McLeod, a Democratic consultant in Arizona: "If Hiral did 15 points better than Hillary Clinton, then add 15 points to every Democrat running on the ballot this year."[16]

Campaign advertisements[edit]

Democratic Party Hiral Tipirneni[edit]

Support[edit]

"Progress" - Tipirneni campaign ad, released April 17, 2018
"Hiral on Our Side" - Tipirneni campaign ad, released April 3, 2018

Republican Party Debbie Lesko[edit]

Support[edit]

"Build the Wall" - Lesko campaign ad, released January 24, 2018

Oppose[edit]

"Politician Debbie Lesko" - Tipirneni campaign ad, released March 13, 2018

Race ratings[edit]

Race ratings: Arizona's 8th Congressional District election, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political ReportLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLikely RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.


Polls[edit]

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Arizona's 8th Congressional District special election, 2018
Poll Lesko (R) Tipirneni (D)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Lake Research Partners (commissioned by Tipirneni)
April 14-16, 2018		 46%46%8%+/-4.9408 registered voters
Emerson College
April 12-15, 2018		 45%46%9%+/-5.2400 likely voters
OH Predictive Insights
April 11, 2018		 53%43%4%+/-4.4500 likely voters
Lake Research Partners (commissioned by Tipirneni)
March 3-6, 2018		 48%34%18%+/-N/A400 likely voters
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Satellite spending[edit]

  • Congressional Leadership Fund: Politico reported that the Congressional Leadership Fund was expected to spend $100,000 on digital and phone get-out-the-vote outreach.[17]
  • Republican National Committee: On March 23, 2018, the committee spent $281,250 on door-to-door canvassing in the district to support Debbie Lesko.[18]

Candidate forums and debates[edit]

12 News Debate, Sunday Square Off, March 2018
PBS Horizon, March 2018

Campaign themes and policy stances[edit]

Campaign themes[edit]

This section highlights topics that each candidate emphasized during the campaign. They are generally taken verbatim from the candidate, but may also be collected from newspaper profiles, candidate forums, media interviews, voter guides, candidate survey responses, and candidate YouTube videos.

Democratic Party Hiral Tipirneni[edit]

“

HEALTH CARE

Expanding Medicare to allow anyone to buy into the system is a great place to start so that access to affordable, quality care that covers pre-existing conditions is guaranteed. Also, any health care proposal that levies an age tax on older Americans must be stopped.

ECONOMY

Our federal tax code, particularly for families and small businesses, must be simplified. We must expand workforce training programs so businesses, large and small, can bring good-paying jobs to our communities.

We must also find a way to ensure access to affordable childcare so that families can get ahead.

RETIREMENT SECURITY AND VETERANS

Congress must protect the Social Security and Medicare benefits that retirees have worked a lifetime to earn.

The VA (U.S. Dept. of Veterans Affairs) must be held accountable to reduce wait times and improve care for all our veterans.

EDUCATION Opportunities for our children must be strengthened by investing in quality public schools.

Furthermore, both traditional college and trade education must be more affordable to reduce the burden of student loan debt.

GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABILITY

Protecting taxpayers’ hard-earned dollars is key to helping keep government accountable to the people, and that includes reducing the influence of Washington special interests that work against the public interest.

Congress should also continue to increase transparency, and prevent members of Congress from wasting tax dollars on personal benefits like first-class airfare.

IMMIGRATION & BORDER SECURITY

We ALL deserve an accountable immigration system providing a clear, affordable path to citizenship for those who qualify and have earned it. We also need secure borders. These two ideas area not mutually exclusive, and money for “the wall” would be better spent on other border security measures.

2nd AMENDMENT RIGHTS

I support Second Amendment rights overall for law-abiding Americans to obtain firearms through legal channels to protect their homes, themselves and their families, and for hunting and sport. America is the only industrialized nation with our degree of gun violence, and we should address it as a public health issue. The U.S. has a history of using data-driven policies to make us safer – seat belts, child car seats, airbags. We must find a path for both the 2nd Amendment and commonsense gun safety reform.

WOMEN’S REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS

I fervently believe our elected representatives should support policies reflecting clearly established women’s reproductive health rights. In short, abortions should stay safe, legal, and rare. And, for the record, no one is “pro-abortion” – one is essentially either pro-choice or anti-choice.[19]

”
—Hiral Tipirneni for Congress[6]


Republican Party Debbie Lesko[edit]

“

National Security I am committed to making sure our soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines have the best equipment in the world as we continue to win the war against ISIS. This means we must continue to protect the F-35 and Luke Air Force Base. We also need to continue investing in missile defense so that insane madmen like Kim Jung Un cannot threaten our country with nuclear attack. We must also expand Cyber Command to protect our infrastructure and we must ensure our intelligence assets have the tools they need to continue to defeat terrorists.

Border Security We must secure our border, period. Some sections need a physical barrier like the wall, and other parts require technology and more manpower. I am committed to working with President Trump to making this a reality.

Education I believe education is about empowering parents to make the right choices for their children and their families. That's why I believe the federal government needs to get out of the way of decisions made at the local level. I will support federal block grants back to states so that we in Arizona can continue to decide how best to spend our money - not bureaucrats in Washington.

Taxes and Regulations I have never seen a tax I didn't want to cut and have a proud record of voting for common sense tax reforms. The newly passed tax reform package from Congress doesn't go far enough. We need a reformed tax code that allows citizens to fill out their tax returns on a postcard. I will push for this tax simplification. We also have too many regulations that put the needs of special interests over common sense and I will work with the President to protect jobs and end the reign of bureaucratic controls through regulations.

National Debt President Obama was a tax-and-spend liberal and in his short reign he accumulated more debt than all previous Presidents combined. This is outrageous. In Congress I will fight for a balanced budget, to end budget gimmicks, and to rein in spending that both parties have let get out of control. If that means I have to tell Speaker Ryan no, then that's exactly what I will do. No more burdening the generations that come after us with massive debts. The time to tackle this is now.

Pro-Life & Pro-Family I'm so proud of my record in the legislature that upheld the sanctity of life and protected the unborn. I'm a strong believer that life begins at conception and we must protect the most vulnerable among us. Because of my strong pro-life record, I am the only CD8 candidate to be endorsed by the Susan B. Anthony List, a important national pro-life organization and I have consistently been endorsed by Arizona Right to Life, have a 100% rating with the Center for Arizona Policy and been named "Friend of the Family" by the Arizona Family Project.

As your next representative in Congress, I will vigorously support the principles of life and vote to prohibit any federal funding for abortion or infanticide.

Second Amendment There is a reason why our Founding Fathers found it necessary to make the Second Amendment to our Constitution the right to keep and bear arms. This is a principle rooted in our Republic whereby we are a government of the people, by the people and for the people. But the right to own firearms is more than just a check on tyranny; it is a fundamental right that free citizens be allowed to protect and defend themselves. In the AZ legislature I have a strong track record of defending the 2nd amendment and protecting gun rights. I have consistently been endorsed by the NRA and I am a member of both the NRA and Arizona Citizens Defense League.

In Congress, I will continue to strongly support legislation that protects our Second Amendment and protects our citizens from reckless and irresponsible legislation that attempts to undermine this precious civil right.[19]

”
—Debbie Lesko for Congress[20]

Timeline[edit]

  • April 17, 2018: Tipirneni released her final campaign ad presenting Lesko as "more of the same" in Washington, D.C. The ad also highlighted her primary endorsement from The Arizona Republic, where the editorial board wrote, "Tipirneni could cut through the vitriol in Congress."
  • April 13, 2018: Tipirneni outraised Lesko between February 8 and April 4, 2018, with $434,000 in contributions to Lesko's $367,000.[4]
  • April 12, 2018: An OH Predictive Insights poll showed Lesko leading Tipirneni by 10 points, 53 percent to 43 percent.[21]
  • April 10, 2018: The National Republican Congressional Committee spent an additional $250,000 on an ad campaign that does not mention Tipirneni but criticizes Democratic policies. The spot ends with Lesko saying she will "block socialized healthcare."[22][23]
  • April 5, 2018: The nonprofit group, Tax March, spent $500,000 on ads in the Phoenix media market criticizing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. The ads began airing around tax day on April 17.[24]
  • April 3, 2018: The Tipirneni campaign released an ad questioning Lesko's ethics and introducing Tipirneni as a physician and problem solver.
  • March 26, 2018: The National Republican Congressional Committee made a $170,000 television ad buy in coordination with the Lesko campaign. The Congressional Leadership Fund was expected to spend $100,000 on digital and phone get-out-the-vote outreach.[17]
  • March 23, 2018: The Republican National Committee spent $281,250 on door-to-door canvassing in the district to support Debbie Lesko.[18][25]

Primary election[edit]

Primary election candidates[edit]

The candidate list below is based on an official list provided by the Arizona Secretary of State website on January 10, 2018. The filing deadline for the February primary was on January 10, 2018.

Democratic Party Democratic primary candidates


Republican Party Republican primary candidates


Did not make the ballot:

Candidate Connection = candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Primary election endorsements[edit]

Republican primary[edit]

The table below summarizes the endorsements Ballotpedia identified for the top Republican candidates in the primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District.

Most recent endorsement: Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) endorsed Lesko on February 6, 2018.

Do you know of an official or organization that endorsed a candidate in this race? Let Ballotpedia know by email at editor@ballotpedia.org.

Republican candidate endorsements
Endorsement Date Lesko Lovas Montenegro
Federal officials
U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.)[26] February 6, 2018 ✔
U.S. Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.)[27] January 22, 2018 ✔
U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio)[28] January 19, 2018 ✔
U.S. Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa)[29] January 17, 2018 ✔
Former U.S. Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-Ariz.)[30] January 15, 2018 ✔
Former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.)[31] January 10, 2018 ✔
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas)[32] December 28, 2017 ✔
U.S. Rep. Trent Franks (R-Ariz.)[33] December 21, 2017 ✔
State officials
Former Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R)[34] January 30, 2018 ✔
Arizona Treasurer Jeff DeWit (R)[35] January 25, 2018 ✔
Local officials
Former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R)[33] December 21, 2017 ✔
Organizations
House Freedom Fund[36] January 31, 2018 ✔
Susan B. Anthony List[37] January 12, 2018 ✔
Newspapers
Arizona Republic[38] February 5, 2018 ✔

Special elections to the 115th U.S. Congress[edit]

See also: Special elections to the 115th United States Congress (2017-2018)

In the 17 special elections called to fill vacancies in the 115th Congress in 2017 and 2018, nine Republicans and eight Democrats won. Four elections resulted in a partisan flip:


Results of special elections to the 115th Congress
Race Election date Incumbent Winner Election MOV Previous election MOV 2016 Presidential election MOV[39]
Kansas' 4th Congressional District April 11, 2017 Republican Party Mike Pompeo Republican Party Ron Estes R+6 R+31 R+27
Montana's At-Large Congressional District May 25, 2017 Republican Party Ryan Zinke Republican Party Greg Gianforte R+6 R+15 R+21
California's 34th Congressional District June 6, 2017 Democratic Party Xavier Becerra Democratic Party Jimmy Gomez D+18[40] D+54[40] D+73
Georgia's 6th Congressional District June 20, 2017 Republican Party Tom Price Republican Party Karen Handel R+4 R+24 R+1
South Carolina's 5th Congressional District June 20, 2017 Republican Party Mick Mulvaney Republican Party Ralph Norman R+3 R+20 R+18
Utah's 3rd Congressional District November 7, 2017 Republican Party Jason Chaffetz Republican Party John Curtis R+32 R+47 R+24
U.S. Senate in Alabama December 12, 2017 Republican Party Jeff Sessions Democratic Party Doug Jones D+2 R+28 R+28
Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District March 13, 2018 Republican Party Tim Murphy Democratic Party Conor Lamb D+0[41] R+100 R+19
Arizona's 8th Congressional District April 24, 2018 Republican Party Trent Franks Republican Party Debbie Lesko R+6 R+38 R+21
Texas' 27th Congressional District June 30, 2018 Republican Party Blake Farenthold Republican Party Michael Cloud R+23 R+24 R+23
Ohio's 12th Congressional District August 7, 2018 Republican Party Patrick Tiberi Republican Party Troy Balderson R+1 R+40 R+11
Michigan's 13th Congressional District November 6, 2018 Democratic Party John Conyers Jr. Democratic Party Brenda Jones D+78 D+61 D+61
U.S. Senate in Minnesota November 6, 2018 Democratic Party Al Franken Democratic Party Tina Smith D+11 D+10 D+2
U.S. Senate in Mississippi November 6, 2018 Republican Party Thad Cochran Republican Party Cindy Hyde-Smith R+8 R+22 R+18
New York's 25th Congressional District November 6, 2018 Democratic Party Louise Slaughter Democratic Party Joseph Morelle D+16 D+12 D+16
Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District November 6, 2018 Republican Party Patrick Meehan Democratic Party Mary Gay Scanlon D+6 R+19 D+2
Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District November 6, 2018 Republican Party Charlie Dent Democratic Party Susan Wild D+0 R+20 R+8

District election history[edit]

2016[edit]

See also: Arizona's 8th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Trent Franks (R) defeated Mark Salazar (G) and write-in candidate Joe DeVivo (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Franks defeated Clair Van Steenwyk in the Republican primary on August 30, 2016.[42][43][44]

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTrent Franks Incumbent 68.5% 204,942
     Green Mark Salazar 31.4% 93,954
     N/A Write-in 0% 75
Total Votes 298,971
Source: Arizona Secretary of State


U.S. House, Arizona District 8 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngTrent Franks Incumbent 71.1% 59,042
Clair Van Steenwyk 28.9% 24,042
Total Votes 83,084
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

2014[edit]

See also: Arizona's 8th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 8th Congressional District of Arizona held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Trent Franks (R) defeated Stephen Dolgos (Americans Elect) in the general election.

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTrent Franks Incumbent 75.8% 128,710
     Americans Elect Stephen Dolgos 24.2% 41,066
Total Votes 169,776
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

2012[edit]

See also: Arizona's 8th Congressional District elections, 2012

In 2012, District 2 incumbent Trent Franks (R) decided to run for re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives in the 8th District. He defeated Gene Scharer (D) and Stephen Dolgos (I) in the general election on November 6, 2012.[45]

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTrent Franks Incumbent 63.3% 172,809
     Democratic Gene Scharer 35.1% 95,635
     Americans Elect Stephen Dolgos 1.6% 4,347
Total Votes 272,791
Source: Arizona Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

2010[edit]

On November 2, 2010, Gabrielle Giffords won re-election to the United States House. She defeated Jesse Kelly (R) and Steven Stoltz (L) in the general election.[46]

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngGabrielle Giffords incumbent 48.8% 138,280
     Republican Jesse Kelly 47.3% 134,124
     Libertarian Steven Stoltz 3.9% 11,174
Total Votes 283,578

2008[edit]

On November 4, 2008, Gabrielle Giffords won re-election to the United States House. She defeated Tim Bee (R), Paul Davis (L) and Paul Price (Write-in) in the general election.[47]

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 General Election, 2008
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngGabrielle Giffords incumbent 54.7% 179,629
     Republican Tim Bee 42.8% 140,553
     Libertarian Paul Davis 2.5% 8,081
     Write-in Paul Price 0% 3
Total Votes 328,266

2006[edit]

On November 7, 2006, Gabrielle Giffords won election to the United States House. She defeated Randy Graf (R), David Nolan (L) and Jay Quick (I) in the general election.[48]

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 General Election, 2006
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngGabrielle Giffords 54.3% 137,655
     Republican Randy Graf 42.1% 106,790
     Libertarian David Nolan 1.9% 4,849
     Independent Jay Quick 1.7% 4,408
     N/A Write-in 0% 18
Total Votes 253,720

2004[edit]

On November 2, 2004, Jim Kolbe won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Eva Bacal (D) and Robert Anderson (L) in the general election.[49]

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 General Election, 2004
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJim Kolbe incumbent 60.4% 183,363
     Democratic Eva Bacal 36.2% 109,963
     Libertarian Robert Anderson 3.4% 10,443
Total Votes 303,769

2002[edit]

On November 5, 2002, Jim Kolbe won election to the United States House. He defeated Mary Judge Ryan (D), Joe Duarte (L), and Jim Dorrance (write-in) in the general election.[50]

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 General Election, 2002
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJim Kolbe 63.3% 126,930
     Democratic Mary Judge Ryan 33.6% 67,328
     Libertarian Joe Duarte 3.1% 6,142
     Write-in Jim Dorrance 0% 28
Total Votes 200,428

Background[edit]

Franks sexual misconduct allegations[edit]

See also: Sexual misconduct in American politics (2017)

On December 7, 2017, the House Ethics Committee announced that it would investigate Trent Franks to find out if he was involved in "conduct that constitutes sexual harassment and/or retaliation for opposing sexual harassment."[51]

Later that evening, Franks acknowledged that he had discussed possible surrogacy arrangements with female staffers. However, he denied ever having "physically intimidated, coerced, or had, or attempted to have, any sexual contact with any member of my congressional staff."[51] The Associated Press reported on December 8 that he had offered a female staffer $5 million to carry his child.[52]

Franks announced that he would resign from office on January 31, 2018. Regarding the resignation, Franks said, "But in the midst of this current cultural and media climate, I am deeply convinced I would be unable to complete a fair House Ethics investigation before distorted and sensationalized versions of this story would put me, my family, my staff, and my noble colleagues in the House of Representatives through hyperbolized public excoriation. Rather than allow a sensationalized trial by media damage those things I love most, this morning I notified House leadership that I will be leaving Congress as of January 31st, 2018."[51]

On December 8, he revised his date of resignation and said he would leave immediately. He said the change was due to his wife's admission to the hospital for an ailment.[53]

Pivot Counties[edit]

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states. No counties in Arizona are Pivot Counties.

Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) in the 2016 presidential election. Trump won 48.7 percent of the vote, while Clinton won 45.1 percent. Arizona was one of 12 key battleground states in 2016. Of the 30 states won by Trump in 2016, Arizona had the fifth closest margin. From when it became a state in 1912 to 2016, Arizona voted Republican in 66.7 percent of presidential elections. It voted Republican in all presidential elections from 2000 to 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district[edit]

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Arizona. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[54][55]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 12 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 25 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 14 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 27.5 points. Clinton won two districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 18 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 22.9 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 16 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 21.5 points.


State overview[edit]

Partisan control[edit]

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Arizona heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation[edit]

State executives[edit]

State legislature[edit]

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Arizona State Legislature. They had a 35-25 majority in the state House and a 17-13 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status[edit]

  • Arizona was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party controlled the office of the governor, the state House, and the state Senate.

2018 elections[edit]

See also: Arizona elections, 2018

Arizona held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics[edit]

Demographic data for Arizona
 ArizonaU.S.
Total population:6,817,565316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):113,5943,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:78.4%73.6%
Black/African American:4.2%12.6%
Asian:3%5.1%
Native American:4.4%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.2%0.2%
Two or more:3.2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:30.3%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:86%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.5%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$50,255$53,889
Persons below poverty level:21.2%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Arizona.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Arizona's three largest cities were Phoenix (pop. est. 1,626,078), Tucson (pop. est. 535,677), and Mesa (pop. est. 496,401).[56][57]

State election history[edit]

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Arizona from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Arizona Secretary of State.

Historical elections[edit]

Presidential elections, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Arizona every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Arizona 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 48.7% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 45.1% 3.6%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 53.7% Democratic Party Barack Obama 44.6% 9.1%
2008 Republican Party John McCain 53.6% Democratic Party Barack Obama 45.1% 7.5%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 54.9% Democratic Party John Kerry 44.4% 10.5%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 51.0% Democratic Party Al Gore 44.5% 5.5%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Arizona from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Arizona 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party John McCain 53.7% Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick 40.7% 13.0%
2012 Republican Party Jeff Flake 49.2% Democratic Party Richard Carmona 46.2% 3.0%
2010 Republican Party John McCain 58.9% Democratic Party Rodney Glassman 34.7% 24.2%
2006 Republican Party Jon Kyl 53.3% Democratic Party Jim Pederson 43.5% 9.8%
2004 Republican Party John McCain 76.7% Democratic Party Stuart Starky 20.6% 56.1%
2002 Republican Party Jon Kyl 79.3% Grey.png William Toel (I) 7.8% 7.8%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Arizona.

Election results (Governor), Arizona 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Doug Ducey 53.4% Democratic Party Fred DuVal 41.6% 11.8%
2010 Republican Party Jan Brewer 54.3% Democratic Party Terry Goddard 42.4% 12.1%
2006 Democratic Party Janet Napolitano 62.6% Republican Party Len Munsil 35.4% 27.2%
2002 Democratic Party Janet Napolitano 46.2% Republican Party Matt Salmon 45.2% 1.0%'

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Arizona in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Arizona 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 5 55.5% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
2014 Republican Party 5 55.5% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
2012 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.5% D+1
2010 Republican Party 5 62.5% Democratic Party 3 37.5% R+2
2008 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2006 Republican Party 4 50% Democratic Party 4 50% Even
2004 Republican Party 6 75% Democratic Party 2 25% R+4
2002 Republican Party 6 75% Democratic Party 2 25% R+4
2000 Republican Party 5 83.3% Democratic Party 1 16.6% R+4

Trifectas, 1992-2017[edit]

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Arizona Party Control: 1992-2026
No Democratic trifectas  •  Twenty-two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D
Senate R R R R R R R R R S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R



See also[edit]

External links[edit]

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 		Suggest a link

Footnotes[edit]

  1. ↑ The New York Times, "Arizona Special Election Results: Eighth House District," April 24, 2018
  2. ↑ Politico, "GOP scrambles to avert another election dumpster fire," March 27, 2018
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 Emerson College, "Emerson College ePoll: Statistical Tie in Arizona 8th Congressional, Democrats Positioned for Surprise Upset in the Desert," April 16, 2018
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 AZ Central, "Hiral Tipirneni outraises Debbie Lesko as Arizona's CD8 race enters final stage," April 13, 2018
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 Arizona Secretary of State, “2018 CD8 Special Election Candidates,” accessed December 11, 2017
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 Hiral for Congress, "Home," accessed March 12, 2018
  7. ↑ KTAR, "Glendale doctor enters race for Arizona’s 8th Congressional District," July 19, 2017
  8. ↑ ktar.com, "Debbie Lesko resigns from Arizona Senate to focus on Congress run," January 8, 2018
  9. ↑ alec.org, "State Chairmen," accessed April 7, 2014
  10. ↑ AZ Central, "Debbie Lesko is officially running for Congress for Trent Franks' seat," December 20, 2017
  11. ↑ Debbie Lesko for Congress, "On the Issues," accessed January 19, 2018
  12. ↑ National Review, "Republican Debbie Lesko Clings to Deeply Red Seat in Arizona Special Election," April 25, 2018
  13. ↑ 13.0 13.1 The New York Times, "Debbie Lesko Wins Arizona Special Election for Congress, Rallying G.O.P.," April 24, 2018
  14. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Another Special Election, Another Really Bad Sign For The GOP," April 25, 2018
  15. ↑ The Weekly Standard, "Debbie Lesko's Win Is Another Warning Sign for the GOP," April 25, 2018
  16. ↑ 16.0 16.1 Politico, "Republican Lesko wins Arizona special election," April 24, 2018
  17. ↑ 17.0 17.1 17.2 scrambles to avert another election dumpster fire," Politico, "March 28, 2018 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "GenSpending" defined multiple times with different content
  18. ↑ 18.0 18.1 FEC, "Committee: REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE," accessed March 26, 2018
  19. ↑ 19.0 19.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  20. ↑ Debbie Lesko for Congress, "On the Issues," accessed January 31, 2018
  21. ↑ The Hill, "Poll: Republican holds 10-point lead in Arizona special election," April 12, 2018
  22. ↑ Daily Kos, "Morning Digest: National Republicans continue to pour money into Arizona House special election," April 16, 2018
  23. ↑ FEC.gov, "Committee: NRCC," accessed April 16, 2018
  24. ↑ CNN, "Group opposed to GOP tax law drops $500K on ad campaign ahead of Arizona special election," April 5, 2018
  25. ↑ Washington Post, "Republicans make six-figure investment in deep-red Arizona district," March 23, 2018
  26. ↑ Twitter, "Brahm Resnik," February 6, 2018
  27. ↑ Twitter, "Debbie Lesko," January 22, 2018
  28. ↑ Twitter, "Debbie Lesko," January 19, 2018
  29. ↑ Twitter, "Steve Montenegro," January 17, 2018
  30. ↑ Steve Montenegro for Congress, "Former Congressman J.D. Hayworth Endorses Steve Montenegro for Congress," January 15, 2018
  31. ↑ Twitter, "Steve Montenegro," January 10, 2018
  32. ↑ Houston Chronicle, "Ted Cruz weighing in on races in Arizona and Montana," December 28, 2017
  33. ↑ 33.0 33.1 KTAR News 92.3 FM, "Trent Franks, Joe Arpaio endorse Arizona senator for Franks’ old seat," December 11, 2017
  34. ↑ Twitter, "Brahm Resnik," January 30, 2018
  35. ↑ YouTube, "Jeff DeWit, Vote for Phil," January 25, 2018
  36. ↑ House Freedom Fund, "AZ-08: Debbie Lesko for Congress," January 31, 2018
  37. ↑ SBA List, "National Pro-life Group SBA List Endorses Debbie Lesko in AZ-8," January 12, 2018
  38. ↑ Arizona Republic, "Our View: Debbie Lesko could get the most done in Congress," February 5, 2018
  39. ↑ Daily Kos, "2008, 2012, & 2016 Presidential Election Results by District," accessed July 11, 2018
  40. ↑ 40.0 40.1 Both general election candidates were Democrats.
  41. ↑ Lamb won by a margin of 0.4 percentage points.
  42. ↑ Arizona Secretary of State, "2016 Primary Candidates," accessed June 2, 2016
  43. ↑ Politico, " Arizona House Primaries Results," August 30, 2016
  44. ↑ CNN, "Election Results," accessed November 8, 2016
  45. ↑ ABC News, "General Election Results 2012-Arizona," November 7, 2012
  46. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
  47. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 4, 2008," accessed March 28, 2013
  48. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2006," accessed March 28, 2013
  49. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2004," accessed March 28, 2013
  50. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 5, 2002," accessed March 28, 2013
  51. ↑ 51.0 51.1 51.2 CNN, "Arizona GOP Rep. Trent Franks to resign following sexual harassment claim," December 7, 2017
  52. ↑ Bloomberg, "Arizona Republican Trent Franks Resigns From House," December 7, 2017
  53. ↑ Washington Post, "Rep. Trent Franks, facing ethics investigation, says he will resign immediately," December 8, 2017
  54. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  55. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  56. ↑ Arizona Demographics, "Arizona Cities by Population," accessed August 30, 2018
  57. ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Arizona," accessed August 30, 2018


[show]
Arizona's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Ruben Gallego (D)
Mark Kelly (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Eli Crane (R)
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
Republican Party (6)
Democratic Party (5)

Categories: [U.S. House special elections, 2018] [Arizona elections, 2018] [Marquee, completed election, 2018]

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